HDM-4 Calibration

Reliability of Results Depends On:

How well the available data represent the

real conditions to HDM
How well the models predictions fit the
real behaviour and respond to prevailing
conditions

How Credible are HDM-4 Outputs?

Depends on Level of Calibration (controls

bias)
Depends on accuracy and reliability of input
data (asset & fleet characteristics, conditions,
usage)
HDM-4 has proved suitable in a range of
countries
As with any model, need to carefully check
output with good judgement

Approach to Calibration

Input data
Must have a correct interpretation of the
input data requirements
Have a quality of input data appropriate for
the desired reliability of results
Calibration
Adjust model parameters to enhance the
accuracy of its representation of local
conditions
3
4

Data & Calibration

Need to appreciate importance of data over

calibration
If input data are wrong why worry about
calibration?
Calibration
'The Depth of the Sea and
the Height of the Waves'

Data

Calibration Focus

Road User Effects

Predict the correct magnitude of costs and
relativity of components - data
Predict sensitivity to changing conditions calibration
Pavement Deterioration & Works Effects
Reflect local pavement deterioration rates and
sensitivity to factors
Represent maintenance effects

Estimating Calibration Coefficients

Extent of
Defect (%)

Model

We attempt to
minimize the
"mistake"

Actual
deterioration

Time

Un-calibrated
Predicted
Progression

Predicted
Progression

Calibrated

Actual Progression

Actual Progression

Hierarchy of Effort
Time Required

Experimental
Surveys and
Research

Years

Months

Weeks

Field Surveys

Desk Studies
Limited

Moderate

General Planning
Quick Prioritisation
Preliminary Screening

Project Appraisal
Detailed Feasibility

Coarse Estimates

Reliable Estimates

Significant
Research and
Development

Resources
Required

Calibration Levels

Level 1: Basic Application

Addresses most critical parameters
Desk Study
Level 2: Calibration
Measures key parameters
Conducts limited field surveys
Level 3: Adaptation
Major field surveys to requantify
relationships
Long-term monitoring
9

Level 1 - Basic Application

Required for ALL HDM analyses

Once-off set-up investment for the model

Mainly based on secondary sources

Assumes most of HDM default values are

appropriate

10

Level 2 - Calibration

Makes measurements to verify and adjust

predictions to local conditions

Requires moderate data collection and

moderate precision

Adjustments entered as input data, typically

no software changes

11

Level 3 - Adaptation

Comprises
Structured research, medium term
Advanced data collection, long term
Evaluates trends and interactions by
observing performance over long time period
May lead to alternative local
relationships/models

12

Important Considerations

Calibrate over full range of values likely to be

encountered
Have sufficient data to detect the nature of
bias and level of precision
High correlation (r^2) does not always mean
high accuracy: can still have significant bias
Primary aim: minimize bias (mean observed
values / mean predicted values)

13

Bias and Precision

A

Low Bias
High Precision

Predicted

Predicted

Data

Data

Observed = Predicted

Observed = Predicted

Observed

Observed

High Bias
High Precision

Observed = Predicted

Predicted

Predicted

Low Bias
Low Precision

High Bias
Low Precision

Observed = Predicted

Data
Data

Observed

Observed
14

Calibration Adjustments
A

Rotation

Translation

Predicted

Rotation

Observed = Predicted

Observed = Predicted

Data

Data

Observed

Observed

Rotation and
Translation

Translation

Rotation

Predicted

Predicted

Translation

Observed = Predicted

Data

Observed
15

Correction Factors

Used to correct for bias

Two types of factors
Rotation

(CF = Observed/Predicted)

Translation

(CF = Observed - Predicted)

Rotation factors adjust the slope

Translation factors shift the predictions
vertically

16

HDM-4 Road Deterioration

Calibration Factors

All relationships have a calibration

factor - K factor
Used to adjust
predicted to observed

17

Typical Relationship

Initiation of Cracking
ICA = Kcia{a0 exp[a1SNP + a2(YE4/SNP2)]}

Calibration
Factor

Model
Coefficients

18

Road Deterioration Calibration

Factors
Calibration
Factor
Kddf
Kcia
Kciw
Kcpa
Kcpw
Kcit
Kcpt
Krid
Krst
Krpd
Krsw
Kvi
Kvp
Kpi
Kpp
Keb
Kgm
Kgp
Ktd
Ksfc
Ksfcs

Deterioration
Model
Drainage Factor
All Structural Cracking - Initiation
Wide Structural Cracking - Initiation
All Structural Cracking - Progression
Wide Structural Cracking - Progression
Transverse Thermal Cracking - Initiation
Transverse Thermal Cracking - Progression
Rutting - Initial Densification
Rutting - Structural Deterioration
Rutting - Plastic Deformation
Rutting - Surface Wear
Ravelling - Initiation
Ravelling - Progression
Pothole - Initiation
Pothole - Progression
Edge Break
Roughness - Environmental Coefficient
Roughness - Progression
Texture Depth - Progression
Skid Resistance
Skid Resistance - Speed Effects
19

Cracking Initiation Calibration

Crack Initiation
100

Percent Area of Cracking

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0

10

15

Years
Kci = 1.00

Kci = 1.80

20

Kci = 0.55

20

Cracking Progression Calibration

Percent Area of Cracking

Crack Progression
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0

10

15

Years
Kcp = 1.0

Kcp = 2.0

21

Kcp = 0.4

20

Road Deterioration Calibration (1)

Simulation of Past Since Construction

take

sample of roads with historical data

(traffic, design, etc.)

simulate

with HDM-4 the deterioration from

construction time to current age

compare

the simulated results with actual

road condition at current age

deal

with the uncertainty regarding the

road conditon at construction time
22

Road Deterioration Calibration (2)

Simulation from Two Points in Time

take

sample of roads with road condition data

available for two years (e.g. roughness
measurements surveyed in two different
years)

simulate

with HDM-4 the deterioration from

the first year to the second year

compare

the simulated results with the actual

road condition at the second year

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Kazakhstan Calibration Example

Without Calibration Scenario

12.00

Roughness Environmental Factor = 1.0

Cracking Initiation Factor = 1.0

10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00

Bias = Mean Observed / Mean

Predicted = 1.14

2.00
0.00
0.00

With Calibration Scenario

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00 14.00

Predicted Roughness Values (IRI, m/km)

Observed Roughness Values (IRI, m/km)

Observed Roughness Values (IRI, m/km)

14.00

Roughness
surveys
three years
apart

12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00

Bias = Mean Observed / Mean

Predicted = 1.03

2.00
0.00
0.00

24

Roughness Environmental Factor = 1.5

Cracking Initiation Factor = 0.6

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

Predicted Roughness Values (IRI, m/km)

12.00

14.00

Road Deterioration Calibration (3)

Controlled Studies
collect

detailed data over time on traffic,

roughness, deflections, condition, rut
depths, etc.

sections

must be continually monitored

long-term

(5 year) commitment to quality

data collection

25

What to Focus On?

HDM-III has about 80+ data items and model

parameters; HDM-4 has more.

Sensitivity of each item has been classified by

sensitivity tests

Simplify effort for less-sensitive items

26

Sensitivity Classes
Impact
High

Sensitivity
Class
S-I

Impact
Elasticity
>0.50

Medium

S-II

0.20-0.50

Low

S-III

0.05-0.20

Negligible

S-IV

<0.05

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Sensitivity Classes
ensitivity Impact
Parameter Important for
2/
3/
Elasticity
Total VOC
Class
S-I
> 0.50 kp - parts model exponent
New Vehicle Price

S-II

S-III

S-IV

Parameter Important for

4/
VOC Savings
kp - parts model exponent
New Vehicle Price
CSPQI - parts model
roughness term
C0SP - parts model constant
term
0.20 - 0.50 Roughness
E0 - speed bias correction
ARVMAX - max. rectified
E0 - speed bias correction
Average Service Life Average velocity
Annual Utilisation
CLPC - labour model exponent
Vehicle Weight
0.05 - 0.20 Aerodynamic Drag Coefficient Beta - speed exponent
Vehicle Age in km
Beta - speed exponent
C0LH - labour model constant
BW - speed width effect
term
Calibrated Engine Speed
CLPC - labour model exponent Labour Cost
C0SP - parts model constant Hourly Utilisation Ratio
BW - speed width effects
term
Number of tires per Vehicle
CSPQI - parts model
New tire Cost
roughness term
Crew/Cargo/Passenger Cost Lubricants Cost
Crew/Cargo/Passenger Cost
Desired Speed
Vehicle Weight
Driving Power
Number of Passengers
Energy Efficiency Factors
Fuel Cost
Hourly Utilisation Ratio
Interest Rate
Projected Frontal Area
<0.05 All Other Variables
All Other Variables
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Sensitivity Classes
Sensitivity
Class

Impact
Elasticity

S-I

> 0.50

S-II

0.20 0.50

S-III

0.05 0.20

S-IV

< 0.05

Parameter

Outcomes Most Impacted

Pavement
Resurfacing
Economic
Performance
and Surface
Return on
Distress
Maintenance

Structural Number 2/
Modified Structural Number2/
Traffic Volume
Deflection3/
Roughness
Annual Loading
Age
All cracking area
Wide cracking area
Roughness-environment factor
Cracking initiation factor
Cracking progression factor
Subgrade CBR (with SN)
Surface thickness (with SN)
Heavy axles volume
Potholing area
Rut depth mean
Rut depth standard deviation
Rut depth progression factor
Roughness general factor
Deflection (with SNC)
Subgrade compaction
Rainfall (with Kge)
Ravelling area
Ravelling factor
29

Information Quality Levels

HIGH LEVEL DATA

IQL-5
IQL-4
IQL-3

System Performance
Monitoring

Performance

Structure

Condition

Ride

Distress

IQL-2

Planning and
Performance
Evaluation
Programme
Analysis or
Frictio
n
Detailed
Planning
Project Level or
Detailed
Programme
Project
Detail or
Research

IQL-1
LOW LEVEL DATA

30

Information Quality Levels

IQL-1: Fundamental Research

many attributes measured/identified
IQL-2: Project Level
detail typical for design
IQL-3: Programming Level
few attributes, network level
IQL-4: Planning
key management attributes
IQL-5: Key Performance Indicators
31

Adapting Local Data

Road Condition
IQL-2
Lane roughness (m/km IRI)
All Cracks Area (% area)
Wide Cracks Area (% area)
Transverse thermal cracks
(no./km)
Ravelled Area (% area)
Potholes Number
(units/lane-km)
Edge-break area (m2/km)
Patched Area (% area)
Rut Depth Mean (mm)
Rut Depth Standard Dev.
(mm)
Macro-texture depth (mm)
Skid Resistance (SF50)

IQL-2B
Roughness (6 ranges)
Cracking (score, or
Universal Cracking
Index, UCI)

IQL-3
Ride quality (class)

IQL-4

Disintegration (score)

Surface Distress Index

(SDI)

Pavement Condition
(class)

Deformation (score)
Surface texture (class)
Friction (class)

32

Surface Friction (class)

Time Spend on Different

Phases of Analysis

Model
Calibration
10%
Establishing
Reliable Input
Data
40%

Running HDM-4
10%
Treatments,
Triggers and
Resets
20%

33

Verification of
Output
20%

Can We Believe HDM-4 Output?

Yes, if sufficiently calibrated

HDM-4 has proved suitable in a range of
countries
As with any model, need to carefully
scrutinize output against judgement
If unexpected predictions occur, check:
Data used
Calibration extent
Check judgment of the expert
23
34

For Further Information

A guide to
calibration and
adaptation
Reports on
various HDM
calibrations from:
www.lpcb.org

35