Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Mikhail Ganelin
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 54583)
Mikhail.Ganelin@gazprombank.ru
Russian Infrastructure
Yakov Yakovlev
+7 (495) 988 24 92 (ext. 22492)
Yakov.Yakovlev@gazprombank.ru
Matvey Tayts
+7 (495) 980 43 89 (ext. 54389)
Matvey.Tayts@gazprombank.ru
8%
28%
9%
12%
24%
14%
REGIONAL ROADS
GENERATION
GRIDS
AIRPORTS
FEDERAL ROADS
RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE
PORTS
10%
2017E
2016E
2014
2015E
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
0%
2008
ARGENTINA
ALGERIA
IRAN
PERU
VENEZUELA
SAUDI ARABIA
NIGERIA
RUSSIA
24 24 21 21 20
18 17 17 15 15
KAZAKHSTAN
31 31
UK
39
BRAZIL
72
INDONESIA
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
CANADA
2007
REGIONAL ROADS
FEDERAL ROADS
GENERATION
RAILWAYS
GRIDS
METRO
AIRPORTS
PORTS
US
AUSTRALIA
Low oil prices and a fall in budget revenues have forced the government
to reduce spending on infrastructure, though this is partially
compensated by recovery of the accumulated pension system and money
from the National Wealth Fund. Meanwhile, changes to laws on
concessions and the securities market heighten the attractiveness of the
sector for private investors. In this report, we analyze how the volume and
structure of investment in infrastructure will change by 2020. We focus in
particular on Chinas policy relating to investment in assets of foreign
countries, including Russia.
Research Department
Copyright 2003-2015.
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
JULY 3, 2015
CONTENTS
Investment in infrastructure ............................................................................................................................ 3
Investment in Russian infrastructure ................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Railroad infrastructure................................................................................................................................................................................................ 7
Core investment projects ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Highways ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Russias seaports .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Airports ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 23
JULY 3, 2015
Need to support investment at a high level amid a shortage of funds is forcing the
government to seek effective solutions more quickly
Over the past year, the Russian government has made a range of important decisions
that significantly improve the attractiveness of investing in domestic infrastructure.
The government decided to preserve the cumulative part of pensions, which will
become the most important source of funding for infrastructure projects.
The government is working on a mechanism for collecting tolls from heavy trucks
for access to federal highways. which will supply budgets with additional funds that
can be used for road construction projects.
JULY 3, 2015
Throughout 2016-20, a total of RUB 11 trln will be invested in transport and energy
infrastructure (RUB 2.2 per annum on average, or $40 bln), comparable to overall
investments made over the past five years. Zero growth will lead to a decline in the
share of investment in GDP from 3.5% to 2.5%. Utilities will face a major decline in
investment (-37%), while the figure for airport and seaport infrastructure will grow by
12% and 45%, respectively. Road development will account for almost half of all
investment. The top-priority projects include those that need to be completed before
the 2018 World Football Championship: the MoscowSt. Petersburg highway and the
Central Ring Road (TsKAD). Investment in railroad infrastructure, which accounts for
12% of all investment, is stagnating as well. Essentially, extension of the BAM and
Trans-Siberian Railway remain the only large-scale projects in the near term. Should
construction of the MoscowKazan HSR commence (our estimates do not yet
incorporate this project), infrastructure will see another spike of investment totaling
RUB 1 trln.
Transport infrastructure spending to rise in nominal terms but decline in real terms
We estimate that RUB 9 trln (around RUB 1.8 trln per annum, $32 bln) should be
invested directly in transport infrastructure (roads, railroads, airport and seaport
construction, reconstruction and extension) within the next five years (2016-20), equal
to around 2.0% of GDP vs. 2.3% over the past five years. Compared with our analysis
from last year, the nominal figure will remain nearly flat but in real terms will be lower
given the higher level of inflation. Our analysis reveals that transport infrastructure
spending in 2015-16 will be cut by around 10-15% of the initially planned volume,
although the figure will not be lower than the 2013-14 nominal spending of around
RUB 1.6 trln. A cut in federal budget expenditures will be offset by higher financing
from the NWF and the pension savings system. Thus, although the financing issue is
challenging, it is far from critical.
Not feasible to cut financing of many projects
Moreover, we believe it is impossible to cut the financing of many infrastructure projects.
Many projects, including the Moscow St. Petersburg HSR and Moscow Metro, are
under currently construction, and reduced funding will merely complicate the situation.
Moreover, Russia is committed to providing high-quality infrastructure for the 2018
World Football Championship (e.g. the TsKAD) and thus there is no leeway to slash
investment. Another example is the surprising boost in passenger traffic on domestic
flights, among other reasons caused by ruble devaluation and the growing popularity of
domestic travel. Thus, reducing investment in airport modernization also seems risky
(thus the extension of Sheremetyevo airport is underway, while construction of a new
airport in Rostov-on-Don has begun). Lastly, ruble devaluation has triggered an
increase of raw material exports, which has created a need for more intensive
investment to expand seaport export capacities.
JULY 3, 2015
As for weaknesses, we note the challenging situation in regional roads funding. Many
regions are in much poorer financial condition than the federal center. The total budget
of regional road funds will decrease by 12% to RUB 713 bln in 2015, according to
Federal Treasury estimates. However, we expect actual spending to be even lower, i.e.
about RUB 540 bln (-23% YoY).
Overview of investment in infrastructure, RUB bln
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
20112015
20162020
Federal roads
349
442
505
527
505
500
567
528
537
610
2,329
2,743
Regional roads
425
646
731
709
545
586
616
642
672
710
3,056
3,226
Railroad infrastructure
234
288
275
222
266
196
264
280
273
342
1,284
1,355
Metro
50
96
100
144
178
171
176
181
181
181
569
891
Airports
31
41
64
79
85
76
76
65
60
61
301
337
Seaports
18
26
43
38
71
79
69
57
46
36
196
286
1,108
1,540
1,717
1,718
1,651
1,608
1,768
1,752
1,769
1,941
7,735
8,838
21.4%
39.0%
11.5%
0.1%
-3.9%
-2.6%
10.0%
-0.9%
0.9%
9.7%
2.0%
2.5%
2.6%
2.4%
2.2%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
2.3%
1.9%
Generation
603
523
637
546
392
367
333
330
309
306
2,701
1,646
Grids
355
329
325
284
177
174
179
213
216
216
1,470
998
958
851
962
830
569
541
512
543
525
522
4,170
2,644
CAGR
5%
-11%
13%
-14%
-31%
-5%
-5%
6%
-3%
-1%
% of GDP
1.7%
1.4%
1.5%
1.2%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
Total infrastructure
investment
2,066
2,391
2,679
2,548
2,220
2,149
2,280
2,295
2,294
2,463
11,905
11,482
13.5%
15.7%
12.0%
-4.9%
-12.9%
-3.2%
6.1%
0.7%
-0.1%
7.4%
3.7%
3.8%
4.0%
3.6%
3.0%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.3%
2.3%
3.5%
2.5%
Total transport
infrastructure
CAGR
% of GDP
UTILITIES
CAGR
% of GDP
JULY 3, 2015
4.5%
4.0%
2,500
3.5%
2,000
3.0%
2.5%
1,500
2.0%
1,000
1.5%
1.0%
500
0.5%
0.0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
FEDERAL ROADS
METRO
GENERATION
2015
2016
2017
2018
REGIONAL ROADS
AIRPORTS
GRIDS
2019
2020
RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE
PORTS
% OF GDP
Source: Gazprombank estimates
REGIONAL ROADS
3% 2%
28%
FEDERAL ROADS
9%
GENERATION
RAILWAYS
12%
GRIDS
METRO
AIRPORTS
24%
14%
PORTS
1,000
2016-2020
2,000
3,000
4,000
2011-2015
REGIONAL ROADS
FEDERAL ROADS
GENERATION
RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE
GRIDS
AIRPORTS
PORTS
Source: Federal Target Program. Gazprombank estimates
JULY 3, 2015
JULY 3, 2015
INVESTMENTS IN 2016-20,
RUB BLN
145.0
415.0
2014-18
0.0
479.8
2017-20
74.4
43.0
2010-18
6.5
30.9
2010-20
38.3
14.4
2017
PROJECT
Expansion of Trans-Siberian Railway and Baikal-Amur
Mainline (BAM)
0.0
84.7
2017-2018
2.0
67.1
2015-19
0.0
1,068.0
2016-18
Source: Federal Target Program Development of Transport System of Russia, Gazprombank estimates
2012
20152020
Sections
2012
20152020
Stations
2012
20152020
EXIT TO PORTS OF
MURMANSK AND
ARKHANGELSK
DEVELOPMENT OF PASSENGER
SERVICE BETWEEN MOSCOW AND
ST. PETERSBURG
Murmansk
ENSURING GAS PRODUCTION
ON YAMAL
Saint Petersburg
Konosha
CARGO BYPASS OF
MOSCOW HUB
Vorkuta
Yaroslavl
Moscow
Noyabrsk
Perm
Rostov-on-Don
Novorossiysk
Tuapse
Saratov
Ufa
SHIPMENT OF FEEDSTOCK
FOR PETROCHEMICALS
INDUSTRY
Yekaterinburg
Tobolsk
Samara
Volgograd
Sochi
Kazan
Surgut
Chelyabinsk
Omsk
PASSAGES TO
SOUTHERN PORTS
Vanino
Lena
Novosibirsk
Achinsk
Novokuznetsk
EXPANSION OF RAILROAD CARRYING
CAPACITY FROM URAL TO CENTRAL
REGION
Komsomolsk-on-Amur
Tynda
Barnaul
Taishet
Irkutsk
Khabarovsk
Severobaikalsk
Chita
Ussuriysk
EXPANSION OF EXPORTS
TO CHINA
Vladivostok
Source: Expert magazine, citing data provided by the Institute of Economy and Transport Development
JULY 3, 2015
250
22
200
125
125
125
342
150
288
100
234
198
275
273
125
200
141
50
139
155
2017E
2018E
56
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2019E
2020E
Source: Federal Target Program Development of Transport System of Russia, Gazprombank estimates
500
395
400
389
250
317
300
200
467
234
217
216
72
98
98
120
28
39
52
71
100
89
107
0
2010
2011
149
38
2012
INFRASTRUCTURE BONDS
FUNDS FROM SALE OF SUBSIDIARIES' SHARES
OWN CASH FLOW
98
2013
414
438
450
2016E
2017E
204
110
100
50
2014
2015E
BORROWINGS ON MARKET
CONTRIBUTIONS TO CHARTER CAPITAL
Source: Russian Railways, Gazprombank estimates
JULY 3, 2015
A memorandum on collaboration signed in early May 2015 between Russia and China
calls for the HSR to be built by a company with capital owned by the Chinese Silk Road
Fund (under the management of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which is
being formed by China), which will contribute up to RUB 100 bln. A similar amount is to
be invested by Russian authorities. In addition, Chinese banks are ready to allocate
another RUB 250 bln. On the part of Russia, RUB 150 bln could be contributed by the
NWF, about RUB 100 bln by the federal budget and Russian Railways, and about RUB
140 bln as an infrastructure bond issue that would be bought up by VEB. Thus, it
remains unclear where the other RUB 330 bln would come from. Part of these funds
could be contributed by Russian banks, while the cumulative part of pension savings
would make it possible to boost the size of the infrastructure bond issue.
Sources of financing, RUB bln
150
Federal budget
21
31
150
100
250
366
Total
1,068
Source: Interfax, Gazprombank estimates
The railroad is currently in the design stage. The tender was won by a RussianChinese consortium consisting of Mosgiprotrans, Nizhegorodmetroproekt and China
Railway Eryuan Engineering Group. The total cost of the work to be carried out in
2016 is RUB 21 bln. It should take two years to build the railroad, which would be
finished in 2018, although it seems to us that such a rapid construction period looks
too ambitious. In any case, while the railway is in the design phase, the interested
parties have time to discuss the details and figure out whether the Russian economy
can handle such a big project.
HSR construction in China and impact on the countrys economy
The construction of an HSR would definitely have a positive economic impact on the
expansion of any countrys economy. A considerable amount of economic research
points to the agglomeration effect. The areas through which an HSR runs show
heightened GRP growth averaging 0.5-0.7% per annum, while the household
incomes of peripheral areas approach the higher income levels seen in large cities, a
factor which promotes consumption. In addition, an HSR would develop tourism.
Small regional companies have an incentive to speed up growth, which heightens the
level of competition.
Despite the advantages that HSRs offer the economy, the ROI offered by these
railways remains questionable and requires detailed analysis. For example, there is
an opinion that many HSRs in China are loss-making. The most successful project is
the 1,318 km Beijing-Shanghai HSR, which was built in 2011 at a cost of $32 bln. In
2014, for the first time it generated net income ($192 mln), while total revenues
reached $4.6 bln. In addition, the HSR was used by more than 100 mln passengers
per year. The line is expected to have a payback period of 14 years.
10
JULY 3, 2015
5,000
EXISTING
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
UNDER CONSTRUCTION/INTENDED
Source: International Union of Railways
11
JULY 3, 2015
highway and the Central Ring Road around Moscow, which should be completed by 2018.
The reconstruction of M4 Don (MoscowNovorossiisk) will likely continue. A major road
project in future years will be the construction of a bridge across the Kerch Strait, at an
estimated cost of over RUB 200 bln. The structure and bulk of funds will come from the
federal budget and the NWF. This project should consume funding from other sources.
We estimate total spending on federal roads at 0.5% of GDP over the next five years
(RUB 500-600 bln) vs. 0.7% for the previous five years. In addition, consolidated
spending of regional budgets to support regional roads, including Moscow, account for
another 0.6% of GDP (RUB 600-700 bln) vs. 0.9% for the previous five years. Thus,
total budget spending on road infrastructure will decline to 1.1% in 2016-20 vs. 1.5% in
2011-15. This is a moderate level of expenditure, which will make it possible to
gradually improve road infrastructure and implement several large-scale projects.
However, it will not allow infrastructure to expand at a pace exceeding overall growth of
the economy.
Dynamic of costs for road infrastructure development, RUB bln
800
12%
60%
4%
2%
600
400
OTHER SUBSIDIES
200
22%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
FEDERAL BUDGET SPENDING
OTHER SUBSIDIES
NON-BUDGET SOURCES
NON-BUDGET SOURCES
SUBSIDIES TO AVTODOR
NATIONAL WELFARE FUND
INVESTMENTS IN
20162020, RUB MLN
SHARE OF TOTAL
INVESTMENTS
66,287
227,575
14.14%
157,917
205,971
12.80%
45,356
152,448
9.47%
18,159
144,065
8.95%
29,207
111,979
6.96%
126,159
107,875
6.70%
39,751
93,324
5.80%
43,305
88,547
5.50%
45,015
87,424
5.43%
11,104
52,349
3.25%
29,857
50,368
3.13%
31,677
46,171
2.87%
33,732
40,403
2.51%
3,160
37,033
2.30%
7,138
35,929
2.23%
3,380
29,211
1.82%
12
JULY 3, 2015
5,671
26,230
1.63%
17,973
25,831
1.61%
11,346
25,141
1.56%
Total
726,194
1,587,872
99%
The successful organization within tight time frames of four tenders to construct
segments of the MKAD (I, II, IV and V). For segments I and V, a contract was
signed with the winner and construction is underway. Tenders for segments III and
IV will be conducted in September 2015.
The holding of new tenders to construct segments of the Moscow St. Petersburg
highway. In 2014, a contract was signed with a consortium of VTB and Vinci to
construct segments 7 and 8 of the road (543-684 km) at a cost of RUB 77 bln.
Preparation is underway for tenders to construct segments 2 and 3 (58-149 km and
149-208 km). In December 2014, the first toll segment of the road (15-58 km) was
launched (exiting to Moscow through Sheremetyevo airport).
The holding of tenders and the signing of contracts to reconstruct segments of the
M4 Don and M3 Ukraine roads, each at a cost of RUB 17 bln. Documents are
being prepared to hold tenders to reconstruct the M7 (Balashikha bypass) and M1
(Belarus) roads.
Despite the large volume of work and tight time frames for construction, a large
number of investors (usually 3-4 consortiums) are taking part in Avtodors tenders,
which underscores the high investment attractiveness of the projects.
The tenders have been organized on a quality basis. For each tender, the
corporation prepares detailed technical, financial and legal documentation, which
allows investors to quickly and efficiently value a projects attractiveness.
13
JULY 3, 2015
GK Avtodors budget: need for private investment totals around $500 mln annually
According to the Federal Target Program (FTP), GK Avtodors budget in 2016-20 should
amount to around RUB 1 trln (RUB 200 bln per annum), although the corporation itself
forecast its budget at nearly 30% less RUB 732 bln. Half of the budget is in the form
of direct subsidies from the federal budget. Additional funds from the National Wealth
Fund RUB 150 bln will go toward construction of the TsKAD by 2018. In addition,
GK Avtodor plans to issue bonds in a total amount of RUB 89 bln until 2020. Proprietary
and borrowed funds of the concessionaire and investors must total RUB 186 bln (22%
of the planned amount) or around RUB 30 bln per annum. Of this amount, around 70%
(RUB 25 bln) may be attracted by the concessionaire in the form of borrowed funds
(bonds and bank loans), while 30% (RUB 5 bln) should be comprised of the
concessionaires own funds.
The peak of investment in GK Avtodors projects will occur in 2016-18 for construction of
the Moscow St. Petersburg toll road and the TsKAD, which should be completed by
2018 in time for the World Football Championship to be held in Russia. Therefore,
despite the economic crisis, these projects will be financed in full.
Dynamics and sources of financing for GK Avtodors projects,
RUB bln
250
22%
200
35
20
40
100
50.9
27
50
0
39
2015
35.7
75
2016
57
150
17
38.4
49%
56
2017
NATIONAL WELFARE
FUND
34
25.0
27
8
11
79
78
75
2018
2019
2020
11%
AVTODOR'S FUNDS
(MARKET BOND)
18%
Source: GK Avtodor
FUNDS FROM
CONCESSIONAIRES AND
INVESTORS
Source: GK Avtodor
14
JULY 3, 2015
Despite the fact that interest rates and inflation in Russia are very high at present, they
are gradually declining. There is a high likelihood that within a few years, inflation
indicators and the level of interest rates will decline to historically low levels. For
example, the CBR has set its inflation target at a level of 4% by 2017.
Tenders planned for 2015
MOSCOWST. PETERSBURG TOLL HIGHWAY
Road section
1558 km
58149 km
149208 km
208258 km
258334 km
334543 km
543684 km
43
90
59
47.9
72.7
217.1
137.5
77,000
30,000
n/a
26,800
12,00015,000
15,50017,000
16,000255,00
55.8
71.9
n/a
30.88
49.6
144.6
76.8
Direct payments
concession
Long-term
investment
agreement
n/a
Long-term
investment
agreement
Long-term
investment
agreement
Long-term
investment
agreement
Availability
payment
concession
Current status
Launched
n/a
Under
construction
Launched
Under
construction
Under
construction
Investor/tender
participant
North-West
Concession
Company (50%
Mostotrest, 50%
Vinci)
n/a
Mostotrest
Mostotrest
Mostotrest
Two Capitals
Highway
2016-2018
20152017
20122014
20152017
20152017
23
23
28
27
75%/25%
Length, km
Expected traffic, cars
per year
Price, RUB bln
(including VAT)
Agreement
Construction period
Timeline for
concession
Sources of financing
(public/private)
Private investors
ROE
20112014
20162018
26
24
40%/60%
80%/20%
85%/15%
90%/10
90%/10%
89%/11%
CPI+8.5%
CPI+8.5%
CPI+8.5%
CPI+8.5%
CPI+8.4%
(4.55%+3.85%)
n/a
Start-up facility 3
Start-up facility 4
105.3
Start-up facility 5
96.5
Start-up facility 1
76.44
49.5
34,100
21,300
26,600
33,100-39,500
Availability payment
concession
Availability payment
concession
Long-term investment
agreement
Long-term investment
agreement
80.5
79.8
42.2
52.39
Tender results to be
announced soon
Tender results to be
announced soon
Under construction
Agreement signed
Stroygazconsulting
20162018
20162018
20142018
20142018
30
30
24
23
12-13% IRR
n/a
CPI+4.65%
CPI+8.30%
15
JULY 3, 2015
BY 2030
Total investments *
1,569,130
4,650,000
1,012,487
2,092,500
556,643
2,557,500
20
80
3,994
12,000
894
2,000
1,333
6,000
47%
75%
133
289380
46
125165
Non-budget financing
Range of investment projects
Expected total length of highways
under trust management by 2020, km
Automobile roads to be restored, km
Automobile roads to be built, km
Share of toll roads of the entire network
Capacity of market of GK Avtodors construction and assembly works,
RUB bln per year
Including the capacity of private finance market
Source: GK Avtodor
* 2010 prices
M-1 Belarus
St. Petersburg
M-3 Ukraine
KazanYekaterinburg
Veliky Novgorod
M-4 Don
YekaterinburgOmskKazakhstan border
10
Southwest Chord
11
12
KrasnodarAbinskKabardinka
13
KazanShaliBavlyKazakhstan border
14
OzinkiSaratovVoronezhKursk
Belarus border
15
ChelyabinskYekaterinburg
16
Sochiseaport Kavkaz
4
1
Smolensk
Tver
Moscow
Vladimir
Bryansk
7
Nizhny Novgorod
Yelets
14
Voronezh
Kazan
14
10
Saratov
6
Kerch
Novorossiysk
Yekaterinburg
15
Rostov-on-Don
13
6 12
Krasnodar
16
Chelyabinsk
Volgograd
Tyumen
Orenburg
Omsk
Sochi
Automobile roads and high-speed highways transferred under the trust management of the State
Company Russian Highways (GK Avtodor); roads under construction to be launched by 2020.
16
JULY 3, 2015
64%
62%
60%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CAPACITY, MLN T
CAPACITY UTILIZATION, %
30%
20%
-1.2% 10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
PRIGORODNOYE
66%
-30.3%
TUAPSE
68%
5.3%
-15.8%
NAKHODKA
70%
7.9%
VANINO
72%
10.1%
12.5%
19.7%
MURMANSK COMMERCIAL
SEAPORT
74%
24.9%
20.7%
VOSTOCHNY PORT
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
76%
PRIMORSK
845 860
791 829
761
699 731
630
591
589 623
549
535 566
496 526
451 455
407 421
NOVOROSSIYSK
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
UST-LUGA*
CAPACITY, MLN T
CARGO TURNOVER, MLN T (2014)
CARGO TURNOVER DYNAMIC YOY
* by 2020, the seaports capacity will increase to 150 mln tonnes
79%
4%
7%
5%
20%
623 MLN T
623 MLN
TONNES
8%
2%
1%
1%
11%
6%
30%
EXPORTS
IMPORTS
TRANSIT CARGOES
OIL
CONTAINERS
FERTILIZERS
OTHER
CABOTAGE
OIL PRODUCTS
FERROUS METALS
ORE
COAL
GRAIN
TIMBER
17
JULY 3, 2015
2011
TIMBER
CONTAINERS
2012
ORE
COAL
2013
2014
FERTILIZERS
OIL PRODUCTS
2015
GRAIN
OIL
Under the Federal Target Program for 2016-20, investment in seaport infrastructure is
planned at around RUB 280 bln. The government will contribute 30% of the total sum,
while the remaining 70% will come from private investors. However, in our opinion,
the actual investment amount could be half of that expected about RUB 140 bln
(RUB 28 bln or $0.5 bln per year). Some core projects have already been launched,
such as the expansion of capacities of Ust-Luga and Big Port St. Petersburg, and the
construction of Sabetta and Novoportovoye ports in the Yamal peninsula. At the same
time, projects such as the expansion of capacity of Taman seaport on the Black Sea,
construction of a universal deepwater port in the city of Baltiysk (Kaliningrad region),
and expansion of capacities of coal terminals at Vanino seaport in the countrys Far
East are planned under the target program, but their implementation is in question.
Planned investment in extension of Russias seaport
infrastructure, RUB bln
100
90
80
80
70
60
60
50
40
40
30
20
20
10
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
STATE BUDGET
GAZPROMBANK ESTIMATES
Source: Federal Special-Purpose Program, Gazprombank estimates
PRIVATE INVESTMENTS
Source: Federal Special-Purpose Program
JULY 3, 2015
Novoportovoye seaports, which are currently under construction in the Yamal peninsula,
while private investors Yamal-LNG and Gazprom Neft are now building the cargo
terminals (in other words, the landside part of these projects). In some instances, private
investors take part in the construction of the water part of seaport infrastructure.
but a concession agreement mechanism that is widespread in other countries is
not yet used in Russia
The reason for this is that stevedores usually own the land plots on which cargo
terminals are located (or rent them for long periods at a relatively low price). However, in
other countries (i.e. Greece, the Netherlands, UAE) land plots for the construction of
seaport infrastructure are assigned to the operator under concession agreements. Due
to low payments for land, Russian stevedores show higher margins than their foreign
peers with similar types of cargo turnover. For example, the EBITDA margin of sea grain
terminals can reach 80%, and the margin of container terminals can approach 60%. Oil
and petrochemical terminals show a margin of around 40-50%. Coal terminals stand
apart, as most of them are controlled by coal producers (Mechel, Kuzbassrazrezugol,
SDS-Ugol). These terminals show lower margins, which is not surprising given the fact
that high transportation costs are factored into the sales price. Hence, full control over
the coal transportation chain is an important part of coal producers business.
EBITDA margin of Russian and overseas stevedores, 2014
61%
61%
55%
60%
54%
52%
50%
47%
25%
30%
23%
22%
36%
40%
70%
20%
10%
HHLA (GERMANY)
ST PETERSBURG SEAPORT
(UNIVERSAL)
DP WORLD (UAE)
TUAPSE COMMERCIAL
SEAPORT (UNIVERSAL)
GLOBAL PORTS
(CONTAINER)
0%
19
JULY 3, 2015
PRIMORSK
MURMANSK
UST-LUGA
BRONKA
SABETTA
2
St. Petersburg
4
BIG PORT
ST. PETERSBURG
SAKHATRANS
NOVOPORTOVOYE
Moscow
11
VANINO
7
TAMAN
PRIGORODNOY
E
VLADIVOSTOK
OLYA
NOVOROSSIYSK
Astrakhan
10
Vladivostok
TUAPSE
OTKRYTYI
ZARUBINO
8
NAKHODKA
VOSTOCHNY
SEAPORT
CATEGORY
TOTAL
AMOUNT OF
INVESTMENT,
RUB BLN
INVESTORS
PROJECTED
SEAPORT
CAPACITY, MLN
TONNES
REALIZATION
TIMELINE
Multi-purpose
seaport
61.5
Kuzbassrazrezugol, Global
Ports, Gunvor, NOVATEK,
SIBUR, Eurochem, OMK,
Gazprom and others
180
2000-20
Construction of
Sabetta port,
including building of
entrance channel in
the Gulf of Ob
LNG terminal
73.2
16.5
2012-20
Construction of
marine multi-purpose
Container and
handling terminal
RoRo terminals
Bronka in St
Petersburg seaport
59.6
1.9 (TEUs)
2012-2017
Year-round oil
terminal
Novoportovoye
(Yamal)
10.9
Gazprom Neft
8.5
2013-18
Oil terminal
20
JULY 3, 2015
LOCATIONS ON THE
MAP
DESCRIPTION
Universal Ust-Luga port is one of the largest-scale transport infrastructure projects since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and a
successful case of private-public partnership. Seaport construction kicked off in 1999. It is located 70 km from St. Petersburg in the Gulf
of Finland. The location is convenient for servicing deepwater vessels and allowing year-round navigation. State and private investments
over 10 years totaled around $7 bln. The ports cargo turnover in 2014 reached 75 mln tonnes (+34% YoY). By 2020, the seaport
capacity is expected to extend up to 180 mln tonnes. Proprietary cargo terminals were constructed inside the port by many Russian
companies, including Kuzbassrazrezugol (coal), Global Ports (container terminal), NOVATEK (LPG terminal), Eurochem (fertilizers),
Rusal (aluminum and alumina), OMK (steel) and Gunvor (oil products). Gazprom intends to construct an LPG terminal inside the port.
Construction of the new Arctic Sabetta port in Yamal began in 2012. Sabetta is the cornerstone infrastructure facility of the Yamal-LNG
project, developed by NOVATEK, Total and CNPC, which includes LNG production, as well as storage and shipping capacities based on
Yuzhno-Tambeiskoye gas field resources. The project is expected to be completed in 2017.
Construction of a multi-purpose loading complex is currently underway at Big Port St. Petersburg. The initial stage (2015) implies
commissioning of a container terminal with annual capacity of 1.45 mln TEU, as well as the Ro-Ro terminal of 260,000 units of equipment
per annum. The second stage (2017) proposes extension of container terminal capacities up to 1.9 mln TEU per annum and construction
of a logistics hub, while the third (2022) includes construction of a container terminal with annual capacity of 3 mln TEU. Bronkas
remoteness from other cargo terminals of St. Petersburg seaport provides it with a number of competitive advantages: readiness to
service large-displacement type container ships, convenient transportation logistics as well as pilotage. That said, commissioning of
rather large container capacities creates overcapacities in the Northwest Region.
In 2015, Gazprom Neft will launch a year-round oil terminal in the Yamal peninsula in the Gulf of Ob intended for oil exports from
Novoportovskoye field to Europe. The Gulf of Ob, where tanks are loaded with oil, is the first zone of the Northern Sea Route and is
covered with ice for nine months per year. Regular operation of tanks requires the use of nuclear-powered icebreakers for a distance of
around 400 km.
Source: Federal Special-Purpose Program, Gazprombank estimates
SEAPORT
CATEGORY
TOTAL
AMOUNT OF
INVESTMENT,
RUB BLN
INVESTORS
PROJECTED
SEAPORT
CAPACITY, MLN
TONNES
REALIZATION
TIMELINE
93.8
2011-20
Development of
Taman seaport
Universal port
25.0
Construction of oil
handling terminal
and bulk cargo
handling complex in
the Olya seaport
(Astrakhan region)
Universal port
19.7
Olinskiy petrochemical
terminal, Olya commercial
seaport, Olya bulk terminal
2015-18
Construction of a
coal terminal at
Vanino port
Coal terminal
19
ZAO TEPK
15
2015-2018
Construction of
handling terminals in
Zarubino seaport
(Big Seaport
Zarubino)
Universal port
180.0
Summa/China Merchants
Holding Int. (CMHI)
60
2015-22
Construction of port
terminal for LNG
plant near
Vladivostok
LNG plant
n/a
Gazprom
15
2014-22
10
Construction of a
coal terminal near
Otkrytyi Cape
(Primorsk region).
Coal terminal
50.0
Rostec/Shenhua (China)
20
2015-19
11
Sakhatrans
Coal terminal
n/a
Volga Group
12
n/a
21
JULY 3, 2015
LOCATION ON THE
MAP
DESCRIPTION
The government is currently developing the expansion of seaport capacities in order to raise cargo turnover (coal, fertilizers, ore) partially
transported via Ukrainian ports. Negotiations are underway with private investors who are ready to build proprietary cargo terminals,
including Global Ports, UCL Ports, SUEK and Metalloinvest. Should the project enjoy decent demand from cargo shippers, its capacities
would be lifted to 70 mln tonnes by 2020 and to 100 mln tonnes by 2030. Total intended capex exceeds RUB 200 bln, while the updated
version of the Federal Special-Purpose Program specifies the total amount of planned investment at just RUB 25 bln.
Mechel planned a major expansion of the capacities of Vanino port, which specializes in coal exports. However, given the companys
poor financial position, the capex program has yet to be implemented.
Summa plans to build Big Port of Zarubino in the Trinity Bay, located 18 km from the Chinese border, by 2018. Cargo turnover is
expected to total 60-100 mln tpa, with a major volume to come via transit from northern to southern Chinese provinces. The port will
handle grain (about 10 mln tpa), containers (up to 2 mln TEU pa), general and bulk cargo (up to 35 mln tpa), Ro-Ro-cargo, etc. The value
of the project inclusive of rail and road infrastructure as well as a dry port in near-border Hunchun is estimated at $3.0-3.5 bln. Project
works are expected to start in February 2015. CMHI, established in Hong Kong in 1992, is the largest asset of the state-owned China
Merchants Group (controls 55% shares, while the remaining 45% belongs to Goldman Sachs). CMHI operates in 7 of the 10 largest
Chinese container ports.
Gazprom is considering a project to build an LNG terminal in the Russian Far East, but a final decision has yet to be made.
In 2014, Rostec and Chinese corporation Shenhua signed a memorandum to start works on joint exploration of the Ogodjinskoye coal
deposit, located in Amur region, and to build a coal sea transshipment terminal with 20 mln tonne capacity at Port Vera in Primorsk
region. Engineering of the ports facilities is nearing completion. Total investment in port construction is estimated at $1 bln.
Implementation of the project would allow to considerably expand access for Russian coal companies to ATP distribution markets.
10
Volga Group, owned by Gennady Timchenko, controls 89% of Sahattrans LLC, with the latter owing around 200 ha of land in the vicinity
of Vanino Port. The company plans to build a transshipment terminal for coal and iron ore concentrate with annual capacity up to 12 mln
tonnes. The terminal is expected to transship coal from the company Colmar.
Source: Federal Special-Purpose Program, Gazprombank estimates
Cosco Pacific
22
JULY 3, 2015
Regional airports are transferred into regional property and become subjects
for privatization. In recent years, Perm, Irkutsk, Krasnoyarsk and Sakhalin
airports were transferred from state to regional ownership. Regional authorities are
more activily seeking to attract private investors in the airports development,
helping to ease the burden on the federal budget as well.
23
JULY 3, 2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
STATE BUDGET
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
PRIVATE INVESTMENTS
Source: Federal Special-Purpose Program, Gazprombank estimates
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
24
JULY 3, 2015
25
JULY 3, 2015
150
50%
120
40%
90
REGIONAL AIRPORTS
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
10%
1999
0
1998
20%
1997
30
1996
30%
1991
60
Market shares of airport operators, 2014 (total passenger traffic, mln and %)
SHEREMETYEVO (STATE)
32, 20%
35.22%
3, 2%
NOVAPORT
11, 7%
AIRPORTS OF THE SOUTH
8, 5%
33, 21%
9, 6%
AIRPORTS OF REGIONS
AEROINVEST
14, 9%
13, 8%
OTHER (STATE-OWNED AIRPORTS)
Source: company data, Gazprombank estimates
26
JULY 3, 2015
State authorities
AIRPORTS
Federal and regional
authorities
PASSENGER TRAFFIC,
MLN, 2014
31.57
Domodedovo
33.04
Vnukovo-invest
Vnukovo
12.73
14.30
Tolmachevo (Novosibirsk)
3.96
Chelyabinsk
1.40
Volgograd
0.70
Astrakhan
0.40
Tomsk
0.54
Barnaul
0.39
Chita
0.33
Perm
1.32
Basel-Aero (50%)
Sochi
3.10
Changi (30%)
Pashkovsky (Krasnodar)
3.40
Sberbank (20%)
Gelendzhik
0.24
Anapa
1.00
Koltsovo (Yekaterinburg)
4.53
Kurumoch (Samara)
2.38
Rostov-on-Don
2.34
1.13
Saratov Airport
0.41
Mineralnye Vody
1.92
Khrabrovo (Kaliningrad)
1.20
Novaport
Airports of South
Airports of Regions
Renova (100%)
Aeroinvest
27
JULY 3, 2015
Vnukovo-Invest
Aeroinvest
Rostec
Novaport
Kaliningrad (Khrabrovo)
Saint Petersburg (Pulkovo)
SHEREMETYEVO
DOMODEDOVO
Moscow
VNUKOVO
RAMENSKOYE*
Kazan
Perm
Rostov-on-Don
Saratov
Anapa (Vytyazevo)
Gelendzhik
Krasnodar
(Pashkovsky)
Sochi (Adler)
Volgograd
Samara
Ufa
(Kurumoch)
Astrakhan
Mineralnye Vody
Yekaterinburg (Koltsovo)
Chelyabinsk
(Balandino)
Tomsk (Bogashevo)
Krasnoyarsk (Yemelyanovo)
Novosibirsk
(Tolmachevo)
Barnaul
Chita (Kadala)
Irkutsk
*under renovation
Vladivostok
(Knevichi)
28
JULY 3, 2015
SOURCES OF FINANCING:
DECREASE, NO WAY TO INCREASE
The main sources of financing for Russian infrastructure are as follows:
regional budgets;
own and borrowed funds from natural monopolies (Russian Railways) and state
corporations (VEB, GK Avtodor);
Over the next few years, the proportion of state spending in infrastructure will decrease
due to a decline in revenues. However, this decline will be offset by higher investments
from the NWF and pension funds that regain access to private pension savings.
The Russian government is currently discussing the draft budget for 2016-17. One
option under consideration is to reduce spending across the board by 5% in real terms.
Such a radical decision would lead to a 15-20% annual decrease in infrastructure
spending. An alternative would be to limit growth in social spending (mainly by indexing
pensions in line with the inflation rate) in an effort to maintain spending that stimulates
economic growth, including transport infrastructure construction.
29
JULY 3, 2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
2016**
2017*
2017**
11,366
12,854
13,020
14,497
12,736
13,854
16,272
15,006
17,089
13.1%
1.3%
11.3%
-12.1%
8.8%
27.8%
8.3%
5.0%
CAGR, %
% of GDP
20.3%
20.6%
19.7%
18.6%
17.4%
16.8%
10,935
12,891
13,343
14,831
15,215
15,466
16,272
15,648
17,089
17.9%
3.5%
11.1%
2.6%
1.7%
6.9%
1.2%
5.0%
CAGR, %
16.5%
291
340
258
301
378
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
349
442
505
527
626
n/a
619
n/a
702
431
-37
-323
-334
-2,479
-1,612
-642
Reserve Fund
2,877
1,100
242
1,920
1,018
749
Shortage/surplus
GDP
Expenditures, % of GDP
56,078
62,273
66,054
78,056
73,149
82,706
83,019
90,976
89,940
20%
21%
20%
19%
21%
19%
20%
17%
19%
42.6%
4.7%
NATIONAL SECURITY
SOCIAL WELFARE
NATIONAL ECONOMY
8.5%
9.1%
INTERBUDGETARY TRANSFERS
OTHER SPENDING
20.8%
Source: Finance Ministry
42.6%
4.7%
NATIONAL SECURITY
SOCIAL WELFARE
NATIONAL ECONOMY
8.5%
9.1%
INTERBUDGETARY TRANSFERS
OTHER SPENDING
20.8%
Source: Finance Ministry
30
JULY 3, 2015
In 2014, the government approved 11 infrastructure projects that will tap NWF funds
equal to RUB 800 bln, of which RUB 200 bln has already been allocated. The largest
amount was earmarked for Russian Railways projects RUB 250 bln, while another
RUB 300 bln will be invested in construction of the Central Ring Road and Yamal-LNG
(RUB 150 bln each). Another RUB 900 bln remains unallocated and the proportion of
these funds to be invested in pure infrastructure projects remains unclear. The
government is currently reviewing new projects from Rosneft, Russian Railways, VEB
and other contenders. We think that NWF resources will be tapped in later years to build
the Kerch Strait Bridge and the Moscow-Kazan HSR. Nor should it be ruled out that the
government may raise the spending cap due to an increase in the size of the fund itself,
thus releasing an additional RUB 600 bln.
Infrastructure projects financed from NWF, RUB bln*
150.0
100.0
75.1
30.2
74.9
30.0
23.0 4.1
22.0
10.3
7.5
0.0 1.1
0.0
57.5
86.9
50.0
92.5
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
31
JULY 3, 2015
5,000
4,500
4,000
1,130, 37%
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,900, 62%
1,000
500
38.2, 1%
VEB
PRIVATE AM
NON-STATE PENSION FUNDS
PRIVATE AM
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
RUSSIAN BONDS
CASH
BANK DEPOSITS
MORTGAGE-SECURED BONDS
OTHER
2012
2013
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
EQUITIES
RUSSIAN BONDS
CASH
BANK DEPOSITS
MORTGAGE-SECURED BONDS
OTHER
2014
32
JULY 3, 2015
CASH
7%
3%
9%
4%
DEPOSITS
29%
MUNICIPAL BONDS
2%
52%
61%
6%
18%
1%
CORPORATE BONDS
4%
DEPOSITS
4%
SOVEREIGN BONDS
42%
11%
SOVEREIGN BONDS
(EXCL. GOVERNMENT
SAVING BONDS)
GOVERNMENT SAVING
BONDS
MUNICIPAL BONDS
82%
CORPORATE BONDS
OTHER
OTHER
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
INFLATION
33
JULY 3, 2015
Earlier, pension savings also played an important role as a source of financing for
investment projects. For example, VEB invested over RUB 200 bln in Russian Railways
bonds, RUB 126 bln in FGC bonds, and RUB 30 bln in Gazprom bonds. In 2013-14,
RUB 280 bln was invested in infrastructure bonds with a floating rate of inflation + 1%.
Overall, as of end 2014, infrastructure bonds worth over RUB 380 bln were placed in
investment portfolios.
In 2015, private pension funds will receive RUB 526 bln, including RUB 327 bln from socalled passive pension contributors, i.e. those who stated their preference in 2013 to
switch over from VEB to private managers, and another RUB 180 bln as contributions to
private pension funds in 2H13, i.e. funds that were frozen during the time when the
system of guaranteed pension savings was being formed. Thus, the recovery of pension
savings will yield about RUB 200 bln of new money in 2015.
34
JULY 3, 2015
JULY 3, 2015
relation to large deals/interested party deals, and net assets). In addition, there is
a simplified bankruptcy procedure for specialized companies (no supervision,
external management or financial rehabilitation are required). This should allow
bondholders to honor obligations as quickly as possible through the enforcement
of security.
Nominal accounts and escrow accounts. The Civl Code defines two new types
of accounts. A nominal account which the holder opens (for example, a project
company) in order to perform cash transactions in cases when the relevant rights
are held by another party the beneficiary (creditors/bondholders). The account
agreement may limit the range of transactions that can be performed at the
owners instructions (the project company), thus making it possible to eliminate the
risks of unauthorized use of funds and the rights of claims used to secure the
bonds. Furthermore, creditors may assign the bank in which a nominal account is
held to monitor spending of cash (for example, by setting debt repayment priority).
An escrow account involves depositing funds in an account that is managed by
an escrow agent (bank) for the purpose of assigning these funds to another
party the beneficiary when specific grounds for such action arise. An escrow
account is a widespread mechanism that project companies use as additional
bond security, or as backup funds to repay liabilities on securities that can be
deposited by the shareholders of a project company and tapped in case of
default.
The above-mentioned innovations lay the framework for launching infrastructure bonds
with a complex structure and considerably expand leeway for the securitization of
assets by Russian banks. Earlier, securitization under Russian law was limited to
mortgage-backed bonds. They were used to securitize other classes of assets under
deals executed by companies incorporated abroad (for example, to issue bonds of HC
Finance-1 that were securitized using a pool of consumer loans). The legislative
amendments should make it possible to securitize transactions executed in Russian
jurisdiction.
36
JULY 3, 2015
16%
4,500
90%
14%
4,000
80%
3,500
70%
12%
3,000
60%
10%
2,500
50%
8%
2,000
40%
6%
1,500
30%
1,000
20%
500
10%
4%
2%
FX RESERVES
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2001
0%
2000
0%
RELATIVE TO GDP
Source: IMF
However, growth has slowed down recently, raising discussion of whether China will be
capable of maintaining growth of at least 6-7% over the following decade. Given that the
country possesses enormous human resources and technological capabilities, it will be
necessary for China to continuously secure a high utilization rate of these resources.
This is especially the case in the construction industry, where there have recently been
signs of an increasingly large-scale crisis. Despite the fact that China is still carrying out
dozens of major infrastructure projects, the scope of construction work is in decline
compared to volumes over the past decade. For this reason, the Chinese authorities are
searching for new ways and means to achieve long-term growth, which can be
summarized as follows:
37
JULY 3, 2015
Nearly half of Chinas investment structure is related to the energy industry, including
the purchase of stakes in oil and gas and utilities companies as well as the
development of mineral deposits. According to Heritage Foundation data, the largest
recipients of investment are the US and Australia, in which Chinese companies have
invested $72 bln and $61 bln, respectively, over the past 10 years. However, the
largest region in terms of investment received from China is Africa, in which $150 bln
has been invested over the past 10 years, with the largest single recipients being
Algeria ($21 bln) and Nigeria ($15 bln). In exchange for access to Africas natural
resources, Chinese companies are actively investing in that continents transport
infrastructure. Chinese companies are building railways in a number of African
countries. For example, one of the biggest projects is being carried out by China Civil
Engineering Construction Corp. in a venture that involves building a 1,300 km railway
at a cost of more than $7 bln in the Republic of Chad with financial support from
Export-Import Bank of China.
180
250
160
135, 16%
200
140
20, 2% 32, 4%
10, 1%
AGRICULTURE SECTOR
CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
ENERGY SECTOR
120
100
80
60
150
27, 3%
100
86, 10%
FINANCE SECTOR
METALS
REAL ESTATE
40
50
20
0
124, 14%
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
INVESTMENTS, $ BLN
41, 5%
NUMBER OF DEALS
Source: Heritage Foundation
396, 45%
TECHNOLOGIES AND
COMMUNICATIONS
TRANSPORTATION
OTHER
Source: Heritage Foundation
38
JULY 3, 2015
NORTH AMERICA
US
50
SOUTH AMERICA
40
SOUTH-EAST ASIA
10
ARGENTINA
ALGERIA
IRAN
PERU
VENEZUELA
NIGERIA
SAUDI ARABIA
AFRICA
RUSSIA
EUROPE
UK
US
0
KAZAKHSTAN
127, 15%
24 24 21
21 20
18 17 17 15 15
20
AUSTRALIA
119, 14%
31 31
BRAZIL
97, 11%
39
30
WESTERN ASIA
61, 7%
61
60
CANADA
72, 8%
72
70
INDONESIA
52, 6%
104, 12%
80
AUSTRALIA
150, 17%
MIDDLE EAST
87, 10%
SECTOR
COUNTRY
Nexen
Electricity
Canada
Rio Tinto
Aluminum
Australia
Railways
Venezuela
Addax Petroleum
Electricity
Switzerland
40%
Repsol
Brazil
100%
Smithfield Foods
Agriculture
US
$6,500
Electricity
Pakistan
$6,200
Car manufacturing
Algeria
2013
$5,950
Aluminum
Guinea
2014
Minmetals
$5,850
Copper
Peru
2011
$5,630
Railways
Chad
2007
ICBC
$5,600
20%
Standard Bank
Banking
South Africa
2009
CNPC
$5,590
37%
Iraq
2013
CNPC
$5,300
8%
KazMunaiGas National
Kazakhstan
2007
CIC
$5,000
10%
Morgan Stanley
Banking
US
2008
CNPC
$4,990
Nigeria
2010
$4,800
Railways
Indonesia
2011
Sinopec
$4,800
30%
Galp Energia
Electricity
Brazil
2010
Sinopec
$4,650
9%
ConocoPhillips
Canada
2008
$4,560
Maritime transport
Greece
VALUE OF
DEAL, $ MLN
INTEREST
IN
PROJECT
YEAR
INVESTOR
2012
CNOOC
$15,100
2008
Chinalco
$12,800
2009
$7,500
2009
Sinopec
$7,200
100%
2010
Sinopec
$7,100
2013
Shuanghui
$7,100
2013
2006
11%
Glencore
Incidentally, not all companies greet China with open arms. According to Heritage
Foundation data, Chinese companies have disrupted 130 major deals worth $470 bln
for various reasons over the past 10 years (2005-14). The largest of these included: Rio
Tintos refusal to sell a stake to Chinalco for $19.5 bln and the prohibition by US
authorities to allow CNOOC to purchase US oil company Unocal for $18 bln, while
39
JULY 3, 2015
China Development Bank failed in 2008 to take over Germanys Dresdner Bank for
$13.9 bln, which went to Commerzbank.
Chinas focus shifts from Africa to Latin America
China has officially announced plans to invest $500 bln until 2020 in the economies of
other countries, of which one half is to be channeled into Latin America (Brazil, Peru,
Colombia, Chile and Venezuela). Thus, at issue is an amount larger than investments
in Africa. In Brazil alone, China is ready to invest $50 bln. One of the main projects
should be the construction of a railway between the Atlantic coast of Brazil and the
Pacific coast of Peru, thus making it possible to lower the cost of exporting goods
from these countries to China. Needless to say, the infrastructure itself will be built by
Chinese companies.
The following example should suffice to compare the scale of Chinas interests in
various countries: China is prepared to invest just $20 bln in Indias economy over the
next five years, most of which will go toward upgrading the countrys railroad system,
including the construction of an HSR line. By contrast, in neighboring Pakistan, China is
discussing a project involving an economic channel worth $46 bln. These funds will be
invested in a network of highways, trunk railways and pipelines, which will connect the
two countries. This project is to be carried out under the Silk Road Economic Belt, which
China recently unveiled to the global community (see below).
In 2014, according to the CBR, the total volume of FDI in Russia fell 70% to $21 bln.
Such a sharp drop was due not only to the conflict in Ukraine, the fall in oil prices and
ruble devaluation, but also the high-base effect of 2013, when the volume of FDI totaled
$69 bln as a result of the Rosneft-BP deal.
Furthermore, the volume of Chinas foreign direct investments in Russia is rapidly on the
rise. According to data from the Chinese Trade Ministry, this figure was over five-fold
higher in 2013 vs. 2012 at $4 bln, and up another 73% in the first eight months of 2014.
Thus, Chinas overall direct investments in 2014 stood at about $7 bln. Notably, a large
part of these investments were loans made to Russian energy companies (Rosneft and
Transneft).
Given such impressive growth, Russian and Chinese leaders have set a goal of
increasing the volume of direct investment from China at up to $20 bln per annum,
placing Russia among the top five countries in terms of Chinese foreign investment.
40
JULY 3, 2015
80
69
30
37
50
30
13
13
23
27
14
51
43
38
40
37
30
29
33
24
32
20
24
10
-3
-10
21
16
0.5
0.4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
EQUITY
55
50
22
40
56
60
50
69
70
60
10
75
80
6
70
20
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.7
4.1
7.1
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
IN DEBT INSTRUMENTS
TOTAL
Source: CBR
41
JULY 3, 2015
Moscow
Saint-Petersburg
Rotterdam
Rotterdam
Calais
Paris
Duisburg
Venice
Istanbul
Athens
Almaty Khorgos
Urumqi
Bishkek
Samarkand
Tehran
Berlin
Moscow
Lanzhou
Xian
Dushanbe
Tashkent
Tedzhen
Shanghai
Kolkata
Colombo
Chelyabinsk
Fuzhou
Zhanjiang Quangzhou
Beihai
Guangzhou
Hanoi
Haikou
Teheran
Khomeini Port
Gwadar Port
Kuala Lumpur
Mashhad
Islamabad
Kashgar
Hotan
Karachi
Urumqi
Golmud
Beijing
Hohhot
Lanzhou Tianjin
Lianyungang
Xian Xuzhou
Chengdu
Chongqing
Guiyang
Nairobi
Fangcheng
Jakarta
Northern Corridor
Central Corridor
Shanghai
Changsha
Guangzhou
Southern Corridor
Source: China Daily
42
JULY 3, 2015
RUSSIA
St. Petersburg
Moscow
Astana
KAZAKHSTAN
Beijing
Traditional China-Europe
sea route
CHINA
China-KazakhstanRussia-Europe railway
Trans-Siberian Railway
Northern Sea Route
Source: GK Avtodor
43
JULY 3, 2015
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0.2
2005
CHINESE PORTS' CONTAINER CARGO TURNOVER
CARGO TURNOVER BETWEEN EUROPE AND CHINA
CONTAINER TRANSIT THROUGH RUSSIA
Source: World Bank, TransContainer
The concept of the Silk Road Economic Belt envisages the construction and
modernization of transportation infrastructure of member states, including automobile
and railway roads, ports, border-crossing routes, airports, telecommunications and
electricity facilities, and pipeline transport. In addition, the project calls for the
standardization of infrastructure, customs procedures, and information systems to
achieve the utmost unification of the entire logistics chain in order to speed up and cut
the costs of transfer of goods among countries in the region. The project also envisages
the creation of free-trade zones, the introduction of a single window principle at
customs offices, and the elimination of administrative barriers hampering trade. The
program document on the creation of the Silk Route says that member states should
cooperate in the development of coal, metals, and oil and gas fields, as well as in the
search for new energy sources, and the development of IT and biotechnologies.
Financial integration: China ready to provide funding
The document speaks about the necessity for deeper financial integration, and
proposes to boost volumes of FX swap deals and create a unified bond market in Asia.
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), established by 21 countries and
headed by China, should lend financial support to the Silk Road. The whole concept of
creating the Silk Road indicates that the Chinese government is willing to support
countries with good credit ratings and issue yuan-denominated bonds, while Chinese
companies will be able to attract funds from participating countries along the route.
Financing of infrastructure projects within the Silk Road will be facilitated by the Silk
Road Fund, to which the Chinese government has already contributed $100 bln. The
Fund is part of the AIIB. According to the project, China is prepared to act as a
coordinator and initiator under the project framework.
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) an international financial institution
established at Chinas initiative will be a cornerstone source of funding for Asian
infrastructure projects. The bank is currently being developed and is expected to be
officially launched toward end 2015.
The banks focus is on expansion of financial cooperation between countries within the
Asia-Pacific Region, participation in financing of Asian infrastructure projects, as well
as projects designed to strengthen trading and economic ties among countries within
the region and globally. Essentially, the AIIB should act as an alternative for such
financial institutions as the IMF, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank,
which are considered to primarily support the interests of the US, Europe and Japan.
Moreover, the Chinese authorities estimate Asias overall need for infrastructure
44
JULY 3, 2015
investment until 2020 at around $8 trln, a sum that existing development banks simply
lack. Setting up a new bank will boost competition with financial institutions within the
Bretton Woods system.
Only a few years have passed between the time of the ideas conception and its
implementation. The agreement to create the AIIB was signed in October 2014. The list
of founding members includes China alongside 20 other Asian countries (Bangladesh,
Brunei, Cambodia, India, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar,
Nepal, Oman, Pakistan, Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Uzbekistan
and Vietnam). The banks charter capital will total $100 bln. In March 2015, the
deadline passed for submission of applications from other states seeking to participate
as founding members. A total of 47 countries submitted applications, including Russia.
The applicants included not only Asian, but also European states (Germany, France,
Austria, Norway and Sweden), Georgia, Turkey, Israel, Brazil and others. The US,
Australia and Japan refused to participate in establishment of the AIIB.
Ranking of development banks by capital
250
200
150
100
50
WORLD BANK
ADB
AIIB
AFDB
CHINA
DEVELOPMENT
BANK
NDB
BRAZILIAN
DEVELOPMENT
BANK
EBRD
JULY 3, 2015
PARTNERS/INVESTORS
PROJECTS/AGREEMENTS/INVESTMENTS
2006
Rosneft/Sinopec
2009
2011
Rosneft/Sinopec
2013
Rosneft/CNPC
2013
Rosneft/Sinopec
2013
NOVATEK/CNPC
CNPC bought 20% in NOVATEKs Yamal-LNG project and signed a long-term deal to supply
3 mln tonnes of LNG per year from Yamal-LNG to China.
2014
Gazprom/CNPC
The parties signed a 30-year contract to supply 38 bcm of Russian gas per year to China via
the Eastern route.
2014
SIBUR/Sinopec
The partners signed an agreement to set up a joint venture in China to produce 50 kt of nitrile
butadiene rubber per year.
2015
SIBUR/RDIF
Chinese companies are taking part in financing of the East Siberia/Pacific Ocean oil pipeline
(ESPO) under guarantees of oil supplies to China via the pipeline.
The partners are jointly working on a geological study within the Veninsk licensed site, located
on the Sakhalin shelf.
The projects goal is to increase the volume of oil supplies to China to 30 mln tpa. The
timeline for supplies is 25 years.
Chinese investors together with the RDIF could enter SIBURs capital and finance the
ZapSib-2 project.
Rosneft/Sinopec
The companies agreed to build a refinery with capacity of 16 mln tonnes in Tianjin by the end
of 2019.
2010
Rosneft/Sinopec
The construction of Tianwan Nuclear Power Plant (third and fourth power units).
2010
2010
Inter RAO/Shenhua
2012
2012
TGK-2/Huandian
2014
RusHydro/PowerChina/CTG
The parties signed agreements to jointly build electric power plants in European Russia and
the countrys Far East. In 2015, they signed a deal to set up a JV to operate NizhneBureyskaya HPP.
2014
The companies signed a deal to develop the Zaluzhansk coal deposit; planned production
totals 6 mln tonnes of coal per year.
2015
The companies plan to cooperate in implementation of joint projects in Russias Far East.
UTILITIES
The partners signed an agreement to set up a joint venture called YES Energo to build
electricity generation capacities in Siberia.
The companies signed a memorandum of understanding to build a plant for production of
synthetic liquid fuels from coal.
Inter RAOs 100%-owned subsidiary that was created to export electricity to China.
The construction of a 450 MW combined cycle cogeneration plant in the city of Yaroslavl with
financing from ICBC.
ENGINEERING/TELECOMMUNICATIONS
2010
2011
Fuyao Glass
2014
2014
Lifan
Construction of a full-cycle facility in Lipetsk region is being considered with capacity for
60,000 automobiles
2014
Hawtai Motors
2014
GAC
2014
2014
MegaFon/Huawei
Seven-year contract with Chinas Huawei for shipment and maintenance of communications
equipment
2014
Rostec/Sinomach
Rostec agreed to create a JV with Chinas Sinomach, which will invest $10 bln in utilities,
transportation and infrastructure projects
46
JULY 3, 2015
YEAR
PARTNERS/INVESTORS
PROJECTS/AGREEMENTS/INVESTMENTS
METALS
2010
Xiyang Group
2012
2012
CIC/Polyus Gold
2013
CIC/Uralkali
2014
Metalloinvest/Hopu Investments
IRC
2015
The Chinese metals and mining company Xiyang Group will invest $483 mln in the first stage
of development of an iron ore mine in Chita Region alongside construction of a steel-making
facility adjacent to the mine.
Commercial development of a multi-metal Ozyornoye field in Buryatia and construction of
Ozyornoe GOK. NFC acquired a 50% stake in Ozyornoye.
Acquisition of a 5% stake.
Acquisition of a 12.5% stake.
Strategic partnership agreement for co-development of Udokan copper field.
IRC production of iron ore and ilmenite (raw material used for titanium production) at the
Sino-Russian border. 40.4% held by Petropavlovsk (Russia), 31.4% by General Nice
(China), and 4.5% by Minmetals Cheerglory (China).
Partnership agreement, including co-development of the Natalka field.
FINANCIAL SECTOR
2013
Moscow Exchange/CIC
2014
2014
VTB/Bank of China
2014
2014
RDIF/CIC
2014
GTLK/ICBC
2015
2015
RFDI/CIC
2015
An agreement was signed to construct the new southwest branch of the Moscow metro.
Potentially, Chinese companies may not only invest but also participate in construction of this
line.
Agreement on leasing of three Boing 777-3ER aircraft, which will be transferred to Aeroflot.
Design work on the Moscow-Kazan HSR
Construction of a bridge across the Amur river. The Russian part of the bridge will be built by
the company Rubikon, the shareholders of which are subsidiaries of the Russian Direct
Investment Fund (RFDI) and China Investment Corporation. According to the Chinese partys
calculations, the new bridge will shorten the delivery distance through Heilongjiang province
to Khabarovsk and Moscow by 500 km, thereby reducing the delivery time by seven hours.
The length of the bridge is 2.215 km, of which the Russian part will be 0.315 km. The
throughput capacity will total between 5.2 mln tonnes of freight per year (first stage) and 2021 mln tonnes (second stage).
Construction of the Elegest Kyzyl Kuragino railroad with a length of 410 km
Source: GK Avtodor
47
JULY 3, 2015
RATING
(S&P/M/F)
VOLUME.
RUB BLN
PLACEMENT
TIMELINE
OFFER
MATURITY
COUPON
(CURRENT)
COUPON
FORMULA*
CREDIT
ENHANCEMENT
Russian Railways-32
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
10.0
July 2012
July 2022
June 2032
11.2
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
25.0
June 2013
June 2028
10.1
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
25.0
June 2013
April 2043
9.3
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
25.0
September
2013
August 2033
16.0
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
25.0
October 2013
September
2033
17.7
November
2038
17.9
November
2028
9.3
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
25.0
November
2013
Russian RailwaysBO-10
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
25.0
December
2013
Russian Railways
BO-19
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
25.0
June 2014
May 2044
10.1
Russian RailwaysBO-16
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
25.0
October 2014
September
2039
17.9
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
15.0
March 15
February 2040
12.4
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
15.0
March 15
February 2040
12.4
240.0
FGC UES-22
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
10.0
August 2012
July 2022
July 2027
13.9
FGC UES-23
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
10.0
June 2013
April 2048
16.0
FGC UES-28
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
20.0
June 2013
April 2048
16.0
FGC UES-26
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
15.0
August 2013
June 2048
17.9
FGC UES-27
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
15.0
August 2013
July 2047
17.9
FGC UES-29
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
20.0
October 2013
July 2048
17.9
October 2048
16.0
FGC UES-30
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
10.0
December
2013
FGC UES-34
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
15.0
December
2013
October 2048
16.0
FGC UES-37
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
20.0
May 2015
March 2050
17.9
FGC UES-38
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
20.0
May 2015
March 2050
17.9
155.0
Gazprom-BO-19
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
15.0
November
2013
October 2043
n/a
Gazprom-BO-20
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
15.0
November
2013
October 2043
n/a
Gazprom: total
30.0
Face value and
interest payments
are guaranteed by
the government if
concession deal is
terminated
Main Road-3
-/-/-
8.0
November
2010
October 2028
8.4
CPI (YoY)
+0.5*GDP
growth rate
(YoY)
Main Road-6
-/-/-
8.2
December
2012
November
2028
10.0
CPI (YoY)
+0.5*GDP
growth rate
(YoY)
Main Road-7
-/-/-
1.4
November
2012
October 2029
8.4
CPI (YoY)
+0.5*GDP
growth rate
(YoY)
North-West
Concession
Company-3
-/-/-
5.0
October 2011
September
2031
12.5
Government
guarantee for face
value payment
North-West
Concession Company
-4
-/-/-
5.0
October 2011
September
2031
12.5
Government
guarantee for face
value payment
48
JULY 3, 2015
ISSUE
RATING
(S&P/M/F)
VOLUME.
RUB BLN
PLACEMENT
TIMELINE
OFFER
MATURITY
COUPON
(CURRENT)
COUPON
FORMULA*
CREDIT
ENHANCEMENT
Western High-Speed
Diameter -1
-/Ba3/-
5.0
June 2011
April 2016
May 2031
8.75
Fixed before
offer
Government
guarantee for face
value payment
Western High-Speed
Diameter -2
-/Ba3/-
5.0
June 2011
April 2016
May 2031
8.75
Fixed before
offer
Government
guarantee for face
value payment
Western High-Speed
Diameter -3
-/Ba3/-
5.0
March 2012
February
2017
February 2032
9.15
Fixed before
offer
Government
guarantee for face
value payment
Western High-Speed
Diameter -4
-/Ba3/-
5.0
March 2012
February
2017
February 2032
9.15
Fixed before
offer
Government
guarantee for face
value payment
Western High-Speed
Diameter -5
-/Ba3/-
5.0
March 2012
February
2017
February 2032
9.15
Fixed before
offer
Government
guarantee for face
value payment
Two Capitals
Highway 1
-/-/-
15.0
May 2015
2030
n/a
Two Capitals
Highway
Concession
companies:
Total
-/-/-
15.0
May 2015
2030
n/a
th
1 through 11
coupons
14.1%. 12th
through 59th
coupons CPI
+3%
82.6
507.6
Source: company data, Gazprombank estimates
49
JULY 3, 2015
SHAREHOLDER
STRUCTURE
BONDS
DESCRIPTION
INVESTMENT APPEAL
100% state-owned
19 bond issues
in circulation
Summa Group
(65%), free-float
(35%)
$415 mln
eurobonds
issued in 2018,
$219 mln
eurobonds
issued in 2020.
RUB 5 bln ruble
bonds issued in
2018
NCSP Group
(NCSP RX)
Transneft (37%),
Summa Group
(27%), state
(20%)
None
Global Ports
(GLPR LI)
APT Terminals
(30.75%), N-Trans
Group founders
(30.75%), Polozio
Ent. (9%), Ilibrinio
Ent. (9%), free
float (20.5%)
None
None
Mostotrest is a direct
beneficiary of heightened
investment in transport
infrastructure and development
of road concessions, in which
the company is already a large
player.
Russian
Railways
(BB+/Ba1/BBB-)
FESCO (FESH
RX, SD/-/B-)
TransContainer
(TRCN RX, /BB+/Ba3)
Mostotrest
(MSTT RX)
United Transport
& Logistics
Company (UTLC)
(50%), FESCO
(24%), EBRD
(9.25%), others
(16.64%)
Non-state pension
fund
Blagosostoyaniye
(63.63%), free
float (36.37%)
50
HQ: 16/1 Nametkina St., Moscow 117420, Russia. Office: 7 Koroviy val St.
Research Department
+7 (495) 983 18 00
EQUITY SALES
+7 (495) 988 23 75
+7 (495) 983 18 80
EQUITY TRADING
+7 (495) 988 24 10
+7 (499) 271 91 04