ALTERNATIVA N1 (SENSIBILIDAD)

Tasa de descuento
1

Aos

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

5c
Beneficios
Brutos (S/.ao)

9%
6

Total

Inversin Total
a precios
sociales (S/.)

665,793
726,542
790,865
855,187
923,083
994,553
1,069,596
1,148,213
1,230,403
1,312,593
1,401,930
1,491,267
1,587,751
1,687,808
1,791,439
1,902,217
2,012,995
2,130,920
2,255,991
2,384,637

2,527,160.94
9,711
10,126
10,559
11,008
11,476
11,960
12,467
12,998
13,552
14,128
14,728
15,351
16,002
16,683
17,392
18,130
18,903
19,705
20,541
21,411

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

10

11

12

13

14

Costos de
Operacin y
mantenimiento
incrementales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios sociales

Flujo neto a precios

sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a Flujo neto a Flujo neto a

precios
precios
precios
sociales
sociales
sociales

-2,527,161
656,082
716,416
780,306
844,179
911,608
982,593
1,057,129
1,135,215
1,216,851
1,298,464
1,387,202
1,475,916
1,571,748
1,671,125
1,774,047
1,884,087
1,994,092
2,111,215
2,235,451
2,363,225

-2,527,161
579,791
633,635
690,661
747,651
807,824
871,178
937,701
1,007,395
1,080,259
1,153,077
1,232,281
1,311,438
1,396,971
1,485,662
1,577,511
1,675,735
1,773,889
1,878,418
1,989,311
2,103,350

-2,527,161
513,212
560,981
611,574
662,133
715,515
771,722
830,742
892,574
957,219
1,021,818
1,092,088
1,162,312
1,238,196
1,316,881
1,398,367
1,485,513
1,572,590
1,665,327
1,763,712
1,864,886

-2,527,161
446,633
488,327
532,488
576,614
623,207
672,267
723,782
777,753
834,179
890,558
951,895
1,013,185
1,079,421
1,148,100
1,219,223
1,295,291
1,371,290
1,452,235
1,538,112
1,626,423

-2,527,161
380,054
415,673
453,401
491,095
530,899
572,812
616,823
662,932
711,138
759,299
811,702
864,058
920,646
979,319
1,040,079
1,105,070
1,169,991
1,239,143
1,312,513
1,387,959

-2,527,161
313,474
343,019
374,315
405,577
438,590
473,356
509,863
548,110
588,098
628,040
671,509
714,932
761,871
810,538
860,935
914,848
968,691
1,026,051
1,086,914
1,149,495

-2,527,161
151,833
166,628
182,308
197,954
214,484
231,898
250,186
269,347
289,380
309,368
331,148
352,881
376,395
400,771
426,009
453,027
479,975
508,705
539,203
570,552

-2,527,161
646,371
706,290
769,747
833,170
900,132
970,633
1,044,661
1,122,217
1,203,299
1,284,336
1,372,474
1,460,565
1,555,746
1,654,442
1,756,655
1,865,956
1,975,189
2,091,510
2,214,910
2,341,814

-3,790,741
641,515
701,226
764,468
827,666
894,394
964,653
1,038,427
1,115,718
1,196,524
1,277,272
1,365,110
1,452,890
1,547,745
1,646,101
1,747,959
1,856,891
1,965,737
2,081,658
2,204,640
2,331,108

-5,054,322
636,660
696,163
759,188
822,162
888,657
958,673
1,032,194
1,109,219
1,189,748
1,270,208
1,357,746
1,445,214
1,539,743
1,637,759
1,739,263
1,847,826
1,956,286
2,071,806
2,194,369
2,320,402

-6,317,902
631,804
691,100
753,909
816,657
882,919
952,693
1,025,960
1,102,720
1,182,972
1,263,144
1,350,382
1,437,539
1,531,742
1,629,418
1,730,566
1,838,761
1,946,834
2,061,954
2,184,099
2,309,696

-7,581,483
626,949
686,037
748,630
811,153
877,181
946,713
1,019,726
1,096,221
1,176,196
1,256,080
1,343,018
1,429,864
1,523,741
1,621,077
1,721,870
1,829,696
1,937,383
2,052,101
2,173,828
2,298,991

-8,845,063
622,093
680,974
743,350
805,649
871,443
940,733
1,013,492
1,089,722
1,169,421
1,249,016
1,335,654
1,422,188
1,515,740
1,612,735
1,713,174
1,820,631
1,927,931
2,042,249
2,163,558
2,288,285

-10,157,332
617,051
675,716
737,868
799,933
865,484
934,523
1,007,019
1,082,972
1,162,384
1,241,679
1,328,006
1,414,217
1,507,430
1,604,072
1,704,143
1,811,216
1,918,116
2,032,017
2,152,892
2,277,167

-10,159,187
617,044
675,708
737,860
799,925
865,476
934,514
1,007,009
1,082,963
1,162,374
1,241,669
1,327,995
1,414,206
1,507,419
1,604,060
1,704,130
1,811,203
1,918,102
2,032,003
2,152,877
2,277,151

-11,372,224 -12,635,805 -13,899,385

612,382
607,527
602,671
670,848
665,785
660,722
732,792
727,512
722,233
794,640
789,136
783,632
859,968
854,230
848,492
928,773
922,793
916,813
1,001,025
994,791
988,558
1,076,724
1,070,225
1,063,726
1,155,869
1,149,093
1,142,317
1,234,887
1,227,823
1,220,759
1,320,926
1,313,562
1,306,198
1,406,837
1,399,162
1,391,487
1,499,737
1,491,736
1,483,735
1,596,052
1,587,711
1,579,369
1,695,782
1,687,086
1,678,390
1,802,500
1,793,435
1,784,370
1,909,028
1,899,577
1,890,125
2,022,544
2,012,692
2,002,840
2,143,017
2,132,747
2,122,477
2,266,873
2,256,168
2,245,462

9,711
10,126
10,559
11,008
11,476
11,960
12,467
12,998
13,552
14,128
14,728
15,351
16,002
16,683
17,392
18,130
18,903
19,705
20,541
21,411

8,114,910

6,918,039

5,841,771

4,765,504

3,689,236

2,612,969

7,994,306

6,670,424

5,346,541

4,022,659

2,698,777

1,374,894

(1,943)

(1,272,870)

(2,596,753)

30.5%

27.6%

24.7%

21.6%

18.4%

9.0%

33.3%

23.8%

18.6%

15.1%

12.6%

10.6%

9.0%

9.0%

7.7%

6.6%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-74%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Costos Inversin

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

302%

302%

350%

400%

450%

Costos O&M

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

costos inversin

costos O y M

8,114,910

0%

8,114,910

0%

0%

8,114,910

0%

8,114,910

0%

8,114,910

-5%

8,114,910

5%

8,114,910

5%

8,114,910

-10%

8,114,910

10%

8,114,910

10%

8,114,910

-15%

8,114,910

15%

8,114,910

15%

8,114,910

-20%

8,114,910

20%

8,114,910

20%

8,114,910

-25%

8,114,910

25%

8,114,910

25%

8,114,910

-30%

8,114,910

30%

8,114,910

30%

8,114,910

-35%

8,114,910

50%

8,114,910

35%

8,114,910

-40%

8,114,910

60%

8,114,910

560%

8,114,910

ALTERNATIVA N1

ALTERNATIVA N1

VANS

VAN SOCIAL

Sensibilidad a variacin de beneficios ALTERNATIVA N1

8000000
7000000
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-74%

8,114,910
6,918,039
5,841,771
4,765,504
3,689,236
2,612,969
0

6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000

%Variacin
beneficios

VANS

0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-74%

8,114,910
6,918,039
5,841,771
4,765,504
3,689,236
2,612,969
0

1000000
0

-74.04%

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

% de reduccin de beneficios

0.2

% Variacin
Costos Inversin
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
302%

VANS

7,994,306
6,670,424
5,346,541
4,022,659
2,698,777
1,374,894
0

VAN SOCIAL

NOTA: EL PROYECTO SOPORTA UNA VARIACION EN LOS BENEFICIOS DE HASTA

ALTERNATIVA N1

-74.04%

ALTERNATIVA N1

Sensibilidad a variacin de Costo de Inversin

8000000

% Variacin
Costos Inversin

VANS

0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
302%

S/. 7,994,306.21
S/. 6,670,423.85
S/. 5,346,541.49
S/. 4,022,659.13
S/. 2,698,776.77
S/. 1,374,894.41
S/. 0.21

7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000

301.93%

17

33.70%

beneficios

%Variacin
beneficios

16

Beneficios

TIR

8,114,910

15

% de incremento de costo de inversin

0
0

0.5

1.5

NOTA: EL PROYECTO SOPORTA UNA VARIACION EN LA INVERSION DEL PROYECTO HASTA

2.5

3.5

301.93%

4.5

(3,920,635)
5.6%

ALTERNATIVA N2 (SENSIBILIDAD)
Tasa de descuento
1

Aos

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

5c
Beneficios
Brutos (S/.ao)

9%
6

Total

Inversin Total
a precios
sociales (S/.)

665,793
726,542
790,865
855,187
923,083
994,553
1,069,596
1,148,213
1,230,403
1,312,593
1,401,930
1,491,267
1,587,751
1,687,808
1,791,439
1,902,217
2,012,995
2,130,920
2,255,991
2,384,637

625,810.59
9,711
10,126
10,559
11,008
11,476
11,960
12,467
12,998
13,552
14,128
14,728
15,351
16,002
16,683
17,392
18,130
18,903
19,705
20,541
21,411

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

10

11

12

13

14

Costos de
Operacin y
mantenimiento
incrementales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios sociales

Flujo neto a precios

sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a
precios
sociales

Flujo neto a Flujo neto a Flujo neto a

precios
precios
precios
sociales
sociales
sociales

-625,811
656,082
716,416
780,306
844,179
911,608
982,593
1,057,129
1,135,215
1,216,851
1,298,464
1,387,202
1,475,916
1,571,748
1,671,125
1,774,047
1,884,087
1,994,092
2,111,215
2,235,451
2,363,225

-625,811
579,791
633,635
690,661
747,651
807,824
871,178
937,701
1,007,395
1,080,259
1,153,077
1,232,281
1,311,438
1,396,971
1,485,662
1,577,511
1,675,735
1,773,889
1,878,418
1,989,311
2,103,350

-625,811
513,212
560,981
611,574
662,133
715,515
771,722
830,742
892,574
957,219
1,021,818
1,092,088
1,162,312
1,238,196
1,316,881
1,398,367
1,485,513
1,572,590
1,665,327
1,763,712
1,864,886

-625,811
446,633
488,327
532,488
576,614
623,207
672,267
723,782
777,753
834,179
890,558
951,895
1,013,185
1,079,421
1,148,100
1,219,223
1,295,291
1,371,290
1,452,235
1,538,112
1,626,423

-625,811
380,054
415,673
453,401
491,095
530,899
572,812
616,823
662,932
711,138
759,299
811,702
864,058
920,646
979,319
1,040,079
1,105,070
1,169,991
1,239,143
1,312,513
1,387,959

-625,811
313,474
343,019
374,315
405,577
438,590
473,356
509,863
548,110
588,098
628,040
671,509
714,932
761,871
810,538
860,935
914,848
968,691
1,026,051
1,086,914
1,149,495

-625,811
113,737
125,056
137,056
149,020
161,665
174,991
188,984
203,647
218,977
234,262
250,930
267,552
285,545
304,196
323,503
344,183
364,793
386,775
410,117
434,104

-625,811
646,371
706,290
769,747
833,170
900,132
970,633
1,044,661
1,122,217
1,203,299
1,284,336
1,372,474
1,460,565
1,555,746
1,654,442
1,756,655
1,865,956
1,975,189
2,091,510
2,214,910
2,341,814

-750,973
644,429
704,264
767,635
830,969
897,837
968,241
1,042,168
1,119,617
1,200,589
1,281,511
1,369,528
1,457,495
1,552,545
1,651,106
1,753,176
1,862,330
1,971,408
2,087,570
2,210,802
2,337,531

-625,811
642,486
702,239
765,524
828,767
895,542
965,849
1,039,674
1,117,017
1,197,879
1,278,685
1,366,583
1,454,425
1,549,345
1,647,769
1,749,698
1,858,704
1,967,627
2,083,629
2,206,694
2,333,249

-1,001,297
640,544
700,214
763,412
826,565
893,247
963,457
1,037,181
1,114,418
1,195,168
1,275,859
1,363,637
1,451,355
1,546,144
1,644,433
1,746,219
1,855,078
1,963,847
2,079,688
2,202,585
2,328,967

-1,251,621
636,660
696,163
759,188
822,162
888,657
958,673
1,032,194
1,109,219
1,189,748
1,270,208
1,357,746
1,445,214
1,539,743
1,637,759
1,739,263
1,847,826
1,956,286
2,071,806
2,194,369
2,320,402

-1,314,202
635,689
695,151
758,133
821,061
887,509
957,477
1,030,947
1,107,919
1,188,393
1,268,795
1,356,273
1,443,679
1,538,143
1,636,091
1,737,523
1,846,013
1,954,395
2,069,835
2,192,315
2,318,261

-1,752,270
628,891
688,062
750,742
813,355
879,476
949,105
1,022,220
1,098,820
1,178,907
1,258,905
1,345,963
1,432,934
1,526,942
1,624,413
1,725,349
1,833,322
1,941,163
2,056,042
2,177,937
2,303,273

-1,439,364
633,746
693,125
756,021
818,859
885,214
955,085
1,028,453
1,105,319
1,185,682
1,265,969
1,353,327
1,440,609
1,534,943
1,632,755
1,734,045
1,842,387
1,950,615
2,065,894
2,188,207
2,313,979

-1,501,945
632,775
692,113
754,965
817,758
884,066
953,889
1,027,207
1,104,019
1,184,327
1,264,557
1,351,855
1,439,074
1,533,342
1,631,086
1,732,306
1,840,574
1,948,724
2,063,924
2,186,153
2,311,838

-1,564,526
631,804
691,100
753,909
816,657
882,919
952,693
1,025,960
1,102,720
1,182,972
1,263,144
1,350,382
1,437,539
1,531,742
1,629,418
1,730,566
1,838,761
1,946,834
2,061,954
2,184,099
2,309,696

-1,577,043
631,610
690,898
753,698
816,437
882,689
952,454
1,025,711
1,102,460
1,182,701
1,262,861
1,350,087
1,437,232
1,531,422
1,629,084
1,730,219
1,838,398
1,946,456
2,061,559
2,183,688
2,309,268

9,711
10,126
10,559
11,008
11,476
11,960
12,467
12,998
13,552
14,128
14,728
15,351
16,002
16,683
17,392
18,130
18,903
19,705
20,541
21,411

8,819,389

7,743,122

6,666,854

5,590,587

4,514,319

1,285,517

9,895,657

9,746,374

9,847,415

9,447,808

9,149,242

9,074,601

8,552,111

8,925,318

8,850,676

8,776,035

8,761,107

101.5%

90.8%

80.1%

69.4%

58.7%

25.6%

112.2%

94.6%

111.6%

72.7%

59.4%

56.9%

44.2%

52.5%

50.6%

48.8%

48.5%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-80%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Costos Inversin

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

100%

110%

180%

130%

140%

150%

152%

Costos O&M

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

costos inversin

costos O y M

10,016,260

10,016,260

0%

10,016,260

0%

0%

10,016,260

0%

10,016,260

0%

10,016,260

-5%

10,016,260

5%

10,016,260

5%

10,016,260

-10%

10,016,260

10%

10,016,260

10%

10,016,260

-15%

10,016,260

15%

10,016,260

15%

10,016,260

-20%

10,016,260

20%

10,016,260

20%

10,016,260

-25%

10,016,260

25%

10,016,260

25%

10,016,260

-30%

10,016,260

30%

10,016,260

30%

10,016,260

-35%

10,016,260

50%

10,016,260

35%

10,016,260

-40%

10,016,260

60%

10,016,260

560%

10,016,260

ALTERNATIVA N2

VAN SOCIAL

Sensibilidad a variacin de beneficios ALTERNATIVA N2

VANS

1,000,000
800,000

10,016,260
8,819,389
7,743,122
6,666,854
5,590,587
4,514,319
1,285,517

600,000
400,000

%Variacin
beneficios

VANS

0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-80%

10,016,260
8,819,389
7,743,122
6,666,854
5,590,587
4,514,319
1,285,517

200,000

-100%

-75%

-50%

0
0%

-25%

% de reduccin de beneficios

NOTA: EL PROYECTO SOPORTA UNA VARIACION EN LOS BENEFICIOS DE HASTA

-91.60%

0%
20%
40%
60%
100%
110%
180%

ALTERNATIVA N2

VANS

9,895,657
9,746,374
9,847,415
9,447,808
9,149,242
9,074,601
8,552,111

VAN SOCIAL

ALTERNATIVA N2
% Variacin
Costos Inversin

Sensibilidad a variacin de Costo de Inversin

1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000

1231.04%

% de incremento de costo de inversin

0
0%

50%

100%

NOTA: EL PROYECTO SOPORTA UNA VARIACION EN LA INVERSION DEL PROYECTO HASTA

150%
1231.04%

316,894.22
5,706,138.10
570,613.81
285,306.91
6,562,058.82
1,181,170.59
7,743,229.40
0.03
232,296.88
0.05
387,161.47
8,362,687.75

HHH

ALTERNATIVA N2

-91.60%

17

113.65%

Beneficios

beneficios

0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-80%

16

10,016,260
TIR

%Variacin
beneficios

15

200%

% Variacin
Costos Inversin

VANS

0%
20%
40%
60%
100%
110%
180%

S/. 9,895,656.56
S/. 9,746,373.68
S/. 9,847,415.04
S/. 9,447,807.93
S/. 9,149,242.19
S/. 9,074,600.75
S/. 8,552,110.69