BRAZIL IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

BRAZIL IN 2030

Key Findings
In 2030, the population of Brazil will reach 223 million, an increase of 12.1% from 2012.
By 2030 Brazil will be the 7th largest country in the world.
The birth rate and fertility rate are decreasing, meanwhile the death rate is increasing, leading to a
deceleration in the populations growth rate between 2012 and 2030.
Population growth will be driven by huge increases in the population aged 70+ which will expand by 110%
in 2012-2030.
The marriage rate will remain constant at 5.1 marriages per 000 people between 2012 and 2030.
In Brazil the fertility rate was 1.8 children per female in 2012, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. It will
fall further to 1.7 in 2018 and will remain at this rate until 2030.
Net migration will be negative between 2012 and 2030 and almost imperceptible, with an annual average of
33,535 more people leaving the country than arriving. Therefore natural change (births minus deaths) will
drive population growth between 2012 and 2030
Brazils population is predominantly urban. In 2012, 84.8% of the population lived in urban areas and by
2030 approximately 87.9% of the population will be living in an urban setting.

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BRAZIL IN 2030

Brazil in 2030: Summary

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BRAZIL IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

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BRAZIL IN 2030

Brazil and the World in 2030

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BRAZIL IN 2030

Population Past, Present and Future

Age Structure of the Population at a Glance 1980-2030
(Each dot represents a single-year age group)

In 2030, the population of Brazil will reach

223 million, an increase of 12.1% from 2012.
18.6% of the population will be aged 0-14
67.9% of the population will be aged 15-64
13.6% of the population will be aged 65+
There is a red/orange hot spot evident on
the chart indicating a large proportion of the
population will fall between the ages of 26
and 33 in 2030. This segment will account for
12.2% of total population and the trend can
be explained by an elevated number of births
during the late 1990s and early 2000s.
There is also a smaller hot spot for those
aged 43-48 years in 2030, when this
segment will account for 9.0% of the total
population, due to raised birth rates during
the 1980s.

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Reading the chart: This heat chart depicts changes in the age structure of the
population over time. Each dot represents the number of people in a specific (single
year) age group in a given year. Accordingly, a dark red dot shows the largest
concentration of people, by age, in a particular year while deep blue dots refer to the
lowest concentrations. The areas of red therefore represent a large potential market in
demographic terms.

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The birth rate and fertility rate are

decreasing, meanwhile the death rate is
increasing, leading to a deceleration in the
populations growth rate between 2012 and
2030.

BRAZIL IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

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BRAZIL IN 2030

Ageing
The population is ageing and the median age will
increase from 29.9 in 2012 to 37.1 in 2030. Brazil
will age at a faster rate than the Latin American
average where the median age was 28.1 years
in 2012 and is expected to climb to 34.3 in 2030.
In 2012 there were 3.3 0-14 year olds for each 65+
year old. However the 0-14s will decline as the 65+
year olds increase, so that by 2030 there will be
1.4 0-14 year olds for each 65+ year old.
The number of 15-64s will fall as a share of total
population from 68.2% of the total population in
2012 to 67.9% in 2030.
Between 2012 and 2030 the population aged 65+
is due to grow by 15.7 million or 108% (nine times
faster than total population) to reach 30.2 million.
By 2030 this group will make up over a seventh of
the countrys population.
The very elderly (the 80+) will grow by 3.5 million
in 2012-2030 (a 110% increase) to reach 6.6
million in 2030. They will make up 3.0% of the
population in 2030, up from1.6% in 2012.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

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BRAZIL IN 2030

Urbanisation
Brazils population is predominantly urban. In 2012,
84.8% of the population lived in urban areas and by 2030
approximately 87.9% of the population will be living in an
urban setting.

Rural and Urban Population in

Brazil in 2030
Rural

The rural population is in decline after having reached its

modern peak of 39.5 million in 1981. Between 2012 and
2030 it will decline by 11.1%.
Brazil is more urbanised than the Latin American
average. 79.2% of the regions population was urban in
2012, rising to 83.3% in 2030.
Growth Index of Urban and Rural Population
1980-2030
260.0

Urban

Rural and Urban Population in Latin

America in 2030

1980 = 100

210.0
Rural
160.0
110.0
60.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total

Urban

Urban

Rural

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

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BRAZIL IN 2030

Cities
All of Brazils 10 major cities
have a population in excess of
one million.
With the exception of Manaus,
Brazils 10 major cities are
located in the more densely
populated north east and south
east of the country.
The biggest city in 2012 was
Sao Paulo and will remain so in
2030. 6.8% of all urban
population lived in Sao Paulo in
2012, and this will fall to 6.7% in
2030.
All of Brazils 10 major cities will
grow between 2012 and 2030,
but the cities which will grow the
fastest will be Manaus and
Brasilia. They will expand by
25.0% and 24.4% to total 2.3
million and 3.2 million,
respectively, in 2030.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

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DATA

Population by 5-Year Age Group

000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
TOTAL
Median Age

2005

2010

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

17,341
17,378
16,618
17,377
17,917
16,245
14,333
13,361
12,743
10,683
8,797
6,801
5,072
4,144
2,944
2,148
2,243
186,142
26.9

15,074
17,257
17,340
16,516
17,162
17,668
16,004
14,103
13,105
12,428
10,328
8,390
6,358
4,606
3,600
2,393
2,879
195,210
29.0

14,512
16,642
17,496
16,717
16,725
17,586
16,743
14,702
13,302
12,681
11,082
8,976
6,964
5,015
3,750
2,618
3,146
198,656
29.9

14,865
15,138
17,197
17,243
16,344
16,950
17,433
15,764
13,844
12,791
12,032
9,876
7,876
5,810
4,038
2,962
3,494
203,657
31.2

14,287
14,716
15,117
17,138
17,112
16,189
16,773
17,225
15,526
13,564
12,437
11,568
9,334
7,260
5,150
3,369
4,338
211,102
33.3

13,863
14,262
14,688
15,057
17,007
16,952
16,021
16,578
16,976
15,229
13,212
11,989
10,977
8,654
6,487
4,345
5,222
217,519
35.3

13,301
13,828
14,235
14,633
14,940
16,853
16,786
15,845
16,356
16,678
14,869
12,780
11,434
10,252
7,813
5,547
6,598
222,748
37.1

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

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DATA

Population by City
000
Sao Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
Brasilia
Salvador
Fortaleza
Belo Horizonte
Manaus
Curitiba
Recife
Porto Alegre
Urban Population
Rural Population
TOTAL

2005

2010

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

10,407
6,109
2,224
2,589
2,315
2,330
1,604
1,690
1,489
1,370

11,125
6,323
2,476
2,676
2,447
2,375
1,793
1,747
1,537
1,410

11,397
6,396
2,571
2,703
2,494
2,388
1,864
1,764
1,553
1,423

11,778
6,498
2,704
2,741
2,558
2,405
1,962
1,789
1,575
1,442

12,350
6,655
2,901
2,799
2,655
2,433
2,109
1,826
1,609
1,471

12,824
6,783
3,066
2,846
2,735
2,455
2,232
1,856
1,637
1,494

13,197
6,877
3,198
2,880
2,797
2,468
2,330
1,878
1,657
1,511

154,694
31,448
186,142

164,660
30,550
195,210

168,446
30,210
198,656

173,960
29,697
203,657

182,315
28,787
211,102

189,678
27,841
217,519

195,890
26,858
222,748

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

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