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http://www.biroco.com/yijing/prob.htm
Some people have suggested that the method of consulting via coins is not as good as
the yarrow rite because the yarrow's probabilities of yin and yang lines occurring is
asymmetric, whereas it is symmetric in the coin ritual and therefore not representative
of how it should be.
This is a fallacy, because although the original method of consulting the Yijing was
by yarrow stalks the yarrow rite as we know it today is a late reconstruction (12th
century) and is not necessarily performed as it was originally. The way to perform the
original rite has been lost. In fact, the oldest extant method we have is the coin method.
Where the yarrow rite really scores is that it is more meditative and encouraging of
deeper contemplation, but as to whether yin and yang lines were originally intended to
have differing chances of arising is quite unknown. To my thinking, their chances ought
to be equal since they are polar opposites. In practice, of course, whatever method you
use you obtain the hexagram you need. The maths of probability is a relatively late way
of thinking and it is doubtful the originators of the Yijing consultation methods took it
into account.
With coins, there is a one in eight chance of obtaining a moving yin or yang (i.e. they
are equally likely), and a three in eight chance of obtaining a static yin or yang.
Changing lines are less likely than static lines, which is why most times you get only
one or two lines changing, though it is possible for all six to change.
With yarrow stalks, the probabilities are as follows, according to whether you obtain
6, 7, 8, or 9. I have put the equivalent coin probability in square brackets:
6 moving yin: 1 in 16 [coin: 2 in 16]
7 static yang: 5 in 16 [6 in 16]
8 static yin: 7 in 16 [6 in 16]
9 moving yang: 3 in 16 [2 in 16]
This is curious, because here a static yin has a slightly greater chance of occurring than a
static yang, whereas a moving yang line is three times more likely to occur than a
moving yin line (moving lines again being less likely than static lines). This does not
seem to make as much sense as the probabilities inherent in the coin method, which at a
glance look more 'evened out'. As for the original yarrow technique, it could well have
had different probabilities to both of these methods. Suffice it to say, I have obtained
meaningful oracles with both methods and, taking into account the fact that you are
consulting an oracle, it seems misguided to get hung up over the probabilities of 'chance
operations'. For further information on the reconstruction of the yarrow rite and
30/06/2015 14:42
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http://www.biroco.com/yijing/prob.htm
30/06/2015 14:42