3rd Quarter 2004

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

United States

Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217

Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com

© 2004, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

C O M M A J O B N o : 149049

E & O E. THESE PROOFS HAVE BEEN READ AND CHECKED,

B U T F I N A L R E S P O N S I B I L I T Y R E S T S W I T H T H E C L I E N T.
C L I E N T: M A N P O W E R ORDER No:

READER
S U B J E C T: U S A M E O S T E M P L AT E :
D O C U M E N T N A M E : 149049 USA Q304 COVER
S TO R E D : A P R I L PA G E N o : 1
T Y P E FA C E S : H E LV N E U E , VA R I O U S D AT E : 2 9 . 0 4 . 0 4

DESIGNER/OPERATOR
PROOF: FIRST PROOF SIZE: 80%
P U B L I C AT I O N : N / A
SIZE: 11” x 8.5” SCREEN:
P U B L I C AT I O N D AT E : N / A COLOUR DEADLINE:
12 Dorset Street • London W1U 6QS • Tel 020 7935 4554 • Fax 020 7935 4204 • ISDN 020 7224 1325
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

Contents
United States Employment Outlook 2

The Americas Employment Outlook 14

Global Employment Outlook 16

About the Survey 18

About Manpower 19

The United States Employment Outlook

Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted with
employers across the United States to measure
anticipated employment trends between July and
September 2004. All participants were asked, “How
do you anticipate total employment at your location to
change in the three months to the end of September
2004 as compared to the current quarter?”
Of the U.S. employers that were surveyed, 30% expect
to add to their payrolls in the third quarter, while 6%
predict a decline in staff levels. Thus, the Net
Employment Outlook is 24%. Fifty-nine percent of
employers surveyed foresee no change in job prospects,
and 5% are unsure of their hiring expectations.
Without seasonal adjustments to the data, the third
quarter forecast is slightly more positive than the
April – June period. With seasonal variations removed
from the survey results, the employment outlook for the
coming quarter is identical to the second quarter and
represents one of the largest year-over-year increases
in the survey’s history.

Net Employment Seasonally

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
3rd Quarter 2003 20 9 65 6 11 7
4th Quarter 2003 22 11 62 5 11 10
1st Quarter 2004 20 13 61 6 7 14
2nd Quarter 2004 28 6 62 4 22 20
3rd Quarter 2004 30 6 59 5 24 20

30

25

20

15

10

0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.

2
On a seasonally adjusted basis, employers in seven of the
10 industry sectors surveyed intend to increase hiring
activity from the second quarter. Education is the sector in
which job prospects are expected to improve the greatest,
compared with the April – June outlook.
Wholesale/Retail Trade, Services and Public Administration
employers plan to hire at a pace similar to the second
quarter, while those in the Construction sector voice weaker
hiring intentions. Although Construction employers are not
as optimistic as they were in the second quarter, it is
important to note that they still foresee a strong hiring pace
for the July – September period.
Across all 10 industry sectors, job prospects for the third
quarter are significantly stronger than they were last year
at this time.

Net Employment Seasonally

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Construction 39 4 52 5 35 21
Education 24 12 60 4 12 16
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 24 4 67 5 20 19
Manufacturing – Durables 32 8 55 5 24 21
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 30 6 59 5 24 21
Mining 32 6 61 1 26 21
Public Administration 20 8 66 6 12 8
Services 30 5 60 5 25 22
Transportation & Public Utilities 24 5 65 6 19 18
Wholesale & Retail Trade 34 5 56 5 29 22

At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.

Job prospects in three of the four regions, the Northeast, Employers in the West are the most optimistic in
Midwest and South, are similar to those reported in their hiring forecast, compared with other regions.
the second quarter, according to the seasonally The employment outlook in the Northeast and Midwest
adjusted survey results. Employers in the West are is identical and the weakest of the regions.
slightly more optimistic in their hiring outlook than they
were from April to June. Hiring activity within each of the
regions is expected to be considerably stronger than it
was a year ago.

Net Employment Seasonally

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Midwest 30 6 61 3 24 18
Northeast 29 6 58 7 23 18
South 29 5 61 5 24 22
West 33 6 55 6 27 23

3
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

Regional Comparisons
Midwest
Of the employers surveyed in the Midwest, 30% predict
an increase in employment opportunities, while 6% plan
a decrease in job prospects, resulting in a Net Employment
Outlook of 24%. The Midwest hiring forecast is identical
to that of the Northeast and is among the weakest of the
U.S. regions, according to the seasonally adjusted data.
Employer confidence in the Midwest is similar to second
quarter levels but dramatically up from a year ago.
The third quarter employment outlook for the Midwest is
significantly stronger than it was a year ago across each
of the 10 industry sectors, except Finance/Insurance/Real
Estate where the forecast is the same as it was last year
at this time.
Quarter over quarter, employers in the Midwest are
mixed in their hiring intentions. A mild decrease in hiring
activity over the second quarter is anticipated in four of
the 10 industry sectors, including Construction, Durable
Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade and Public
Administration. Job prospects in Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturing and Services are flat, while those in
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Education are slightly
more positive. Employers in Transportation/Public Utilities
and Mining report the most improved hiring plans for the
third quarter.

Net Employment Seasonally

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 30 6 61 3 24 18
Construction 45 5 48 2 40 20
Education 21 15 62 2 6 9
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 20 4 73 3 16 15
Manufacturing – Durables 32 9 56 3 23 18
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 31 6 60 3 25 21
Mining 29 0 71 0 29 17
Public Administration 19 10 66 5 9 3
Services 28 4 65 3 24 19
Transportation & Public Utilities 27 5 66 2 22 20
Wholesale & Retail Trade 34 4 58 4 30 20

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

The Midwest Region is comprised of the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota,
Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin.

4
Northeast
In the Northeast, 29% of employers polled anticipate a
stronger hiring pace in the third quarter, while 6% plan to
decrease employment levels. This creates a Net
Employment Outlook of 23%. The Northeast job forecast
mirrors that of the Midwest and is among the weakest of
the U.S. regions, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Employers in the Northeast expect to hire at a similar
pace as the second quarter. This pace is significantly
stronger than it was a year ago in every industry sector
but Mining where only a slight increase in hiring is
expected year over year.
Job seekers in the Northeast are likely to find a major
improvement in job prospects in the Education sector.
Three years have passed since Education employers
were so optimistic about their hiring plans. Job prospects
across the Manufacturing and Transportation/Public
Utilities sectors are slightly better than they were in the
second quarter, while hiring in the Finance/Insurance/Real
Estate, Services and Public Administration sectors is
expected to be flat. Wholesale/Retail Trade employers
are less optimistic about hiring than in the second
quarter, while those within the Construction sector report
much weaker hiring plans.

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Seasonally

Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 29 6 58 7 23 18
Construction 33 3 55 9 30 15
Education 22 5 67 6 17 21
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 26 5 63 6 21 19
Manufacturing – Durables 30 6 57 7 24 21
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 29 7 58 6 22 17
Mining 0 25 75 0 -25 -13
Public Administration 21 13 59 7 8 5
Services 31 5 57 7 26 19
Transportation & Public Utilities 22 7 63 8 15 14
Wholesale & Retail Trade 33 7 51 9 26 19

30

25

20

15

10

-5
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

The Northeast Region is comprised of the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.

5
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

South
Twenty-nine percent of employers surveyed in the South
foresee an increase in employment, and 5% expect a
decline in their payrolls. The result is a Net Employment
Outlook of 24%. According to the seasonally adjusted
survey results, employment prospects in the South are
among the strongest in the nation, placing second to the
West by a very small margin. The job forecast is consistent
with projections from the second quarter and much more
promising than a year ago.
Employers in each of the 10 industries surveyed expressed
greater optimism about hiring than last year at this time.
Compared to the second quarter, Education employers
expressed the biggest jump in hiring intentions, indicating
a return to hiring activity not seen in four years. Stronger
job prospects are also expected this quarter in Mining,
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing and Services. Hiring
intentions are similar to the second quarter in Construction,
Wholesale/Retail Trade and Finance/Insurance/Real
Estate. Employers in Durable Goods Manufacturing,
Public Administration and Transportation/Public Utilities
are slightly less optimistic than in the second quarter.

Net Employment Seasonally

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 29 5 61 5 24 22
Construction 38 2 54 6 36 29
Education 27 8 60 5 19 22
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 24 4 65 7 20 19
Manufacturing – Durables 31 8 55 6 23 19
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 29 6 61 4 23 21
Mining 31 6 61 2 25 23
Public Administration 19 5 69 7 14 12
Services 31 5 60 4 26 25
Transportation & Public Utilities 20 5 68 7 15 15
Wholesale & Retail Trade 32 4 58 6 28 24

30

25

20

15

10

0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

The South Region is comprised of the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,
Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.

6
West
Among employers surveyed in the West, 33% plan to
increase the hiring pace while 6% plan a decrease in
job activity, which equals a Net Employment Outlook of
27%. When seasonal variations are removed from the
data, the job outlook in the West is the strongest
among the four U.S. regions. Employers are slightly
more optimistic about hiring than in the second quarter
and markedly more confident than last year at this time.
Employers in eight out of the 10 sectors surveyed plan
an increase in the hiring pace from the April – June
period. The largest quarter-over-quarter hiring increases
are expected in the Mining, Durable Goods
Manufacturing and Public Administration sectors. In fact,
government employers haven’t been this optimistic
about hiring plans in more than two years. Employers in
the majority of industry sectors expect a slight increase
in hiring, including those in Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,
Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate
and Education. A decline in hiring intentions is
anticipated in the Services and Construction sectors,
while healthy job prospects are forecast across all
sectors compared with survey results from last year
at this time.

Net Employment Seasonally

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 33 6 55 6 27 23
Construction 38 7 52 3 31 18
Education 25 18 54 3 7 10
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 30 4 59 7 26 24
Manufacturing – Durables 38 8 48 6 30 28
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 32 8 52 8 24 21
Mining 44 6 50 0 38 27
Public Administration 23 8 64 5 15 12
Services 33 5 55 7 28 24
Transportation & Public Utilities 30 4 59 7 26 23
Wholesale & Retail Trade 37 4 54 5 33 26

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

The West Region is comprised of the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico,
Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.

7
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

Sector Comparisons
When the seasonal variations are removed from the Job prospects within the Education, Finance/Insurance/
data, similar hiring plans are revealed for the majority of Real Estate and Transportation/Public Utilities sectors
industry sectors. Employers within the Construction, are respectable, while hiring intentions in the Public
Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Mining, Administration sector are lagging for the third quarter.
Services and Wholesale/Retail Trade sectors expect to
hire at a very solid pace in the third quarter.

Construction 35
21

Education 12
16
20
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
19
24
Manufacturing – Durables
21
24
Manufacturing – Non-Durables
21
26
Mining 21
12
Public Administration 8
25
Services 22
19
Transportation & Public Utilities 18
29
Wholesale & Retail Trade 22

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

8
Construction
Employers in the Construction sector report promising
job prospects. Although the hiring pace is expected to
be slower than it was in the second quarter, job
seekers are likely to find solid employment opportunities
again this quarter. Hiring projections are noticeably
improved from a year ago.
When seasonal variations are removed from the data,
trends in regional hiring plans emerge. By a wide
margin, employers in the South are more optimistic
about their hiring plans than the other regions. Employers
in the Northeast foresee the slowest hiring pace.

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-20
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

Education
The third quarter employment outlook for the Education Employers in the South expect to offer the most
sector marks a three-year high, according to seasonally promising job prospects, while those in the Midwest
adjusted data. Employers anticipate moderately stronger report the weakest hiring intentions.
hiring over the second quarter and a vast improvement
over last year at this time when job losses were predicted.

25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

9
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

For the fourth consecutive quarter, Finance/Insurance/
Real Estate employers expect a steady improvement in
the hiring pace, according to seasonally adjusted
survey results. Hiring plans are slightly more optimistic
than in the second quarter survey and stronger than
a year ago.
Regional hiring patterns are the same as those reported
in the second quarter. Job seekers in the West are likely
to find more employers hiring than those in other
regions. Employers in the Midwest are least likely to
increase staff levels.

25

20

15

10

0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

Manufacturing – Durable Goods

Strong hiring intentions are apparent again this quarter
in Durable Goods Manufacturing. Employers expect a
slight increase in hiring over the second quarter and
considerably improved job prospects compared with
a year ago.
According to seasonally adjusted data, employers in
the West are most optimistic about hiring. Compared
with the other regions, employers in the Midwest are
least likely to take on staff.

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

10
Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods
For the third quarter, Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers
anticipate a steady hiring pace, according to seasonally
adjusted data. The employment outlook suggests a
slight increase in hiring activity over the second quarter,
and a significant boost from a year ago.
Hiring expectations are consistent across the regions.
Employers in the South, West and Midwest plan to hire
at the same pace. Employers in the Northeast are least
optimistic about hiring.

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

Mining
Employers in the Mining sector plan to hire at a strong
pace in the coming quarter, resulting in the most
optimistic employment outlook in three years for the
sector. On a seasonally adjusted basis, employers
expect a moderate increase in hiring over the second
quarter and a considerable jump compared with last
year at this time.
Hiring intentions in the Mining sector are strongest in
the West. For the second straight quarter, the least
promising outlook is in the Northeast, where job losses
are anticipated, although at a slower pace than in the
second quarter.

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

11
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

Public Administration
According to seasonally adjusted data, Public Employers in the South and West expressed the most
Administration employers expect some hiring to take confidence about hiring for the third quarter, while
place during the July – September period. After more employers in the Midwest are more reserved in their
than two years of ups and downs, hiring expectations staffing plans.
for the coming quarter are stable with projections that
are identical to those reported in the second quarter
survey, but considerably better than a year ago.

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

Services
When seasonal variations are removed from the data, For the third quarter, employers in the South are most
the employment outlook for the services sector is likely to add staff, and those in the Midwest have the
among the most positive across the 10 sectors weakest hiring intentions.
surveyed. Employers revealed hiring plans in line with
those issued in the second quarter and are much more
optimistic than a year ago at this time.

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

12
Transportation & Public Utilities
The seasonally adjusted data suggests that the Job seekers in the West are likely to have the best job
Transportation/Public Utilities sector is headed for prospects, while those in the Northeast are expected to
another quarter of healthy hiring. Compared to the face the most challenging job search.
second quarter, a similar number of employers intend to
take on more staff, while job prospects are significantly
better than last year at this time.

25
20
15
10
5
0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

Wholesale & Retail Trade

The third quarter employment outlook indicates strong Wholesale/Retail Trade employers in the West are most
hiring plans among Wholesale/Retail Trade employers. optimistic about hiring, while those in the Northeast
According to seasonally adjusted data, the hiring pace report the most conservative plans.
is expected to be similar to the second quarter and
substantially better than a year ago.The Wholesale/Retail
Trade outlook is one of the strongest among the
industries surveyed.

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-15
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

13
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

The Americas Employment Outlook

Over 21,000 interviews have been conducted across the United States, Canada and Mexico to measure anticipated
employment trends between July and September 2004.

International Comparisons
The three nations in the Americas are currently moving
in unison. Overall, the job outlook is positive and in the
case of Canada and the United States, a slight
improvement over last quarter. Canada posted the
region’s strongest Net Employment Outlook for the
second consecutive quarter. Employers in the United
States are reporting slightly more positive hiring
intentions for the three months ahead. Employment
prospects in Mexico are expected to be stable.

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Outlook

% % % % %
Canada 31 6 60 3 25
Mexico 26 12 61 1 14
United States 30 6 59 5 24 (20)1

Comparing the data over time, we can see the strong
seasonal hiring variations that occur in Canada’s
employment hiring levels due to changes in climate.
The third quarter sees the positive hiring trend in
Canada continue to improve as the climate remains
mild. There are less dramatic seasonal shifts when
comparing the United States and Mexico: a continued
alignment in the two countries’ historical employment
forecasts is evident.

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004

Canada Mexico United States (Seasonally Adjusted)

1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity
for the United States.

14
Sector Comparisons
Within this section, we outline variation in the Net
Employment Outlook across two broad categories:
Industry and Services. Positive hiring intentions are
expected across the region in both the Industry and
Services categories. Canadian and American employers
in both sectors intend to increase or maintain
employment levels over the next three months.
In Mexico, employers in the Industry sector have
predicted a slight quarter-over-quarter fall in job
prospects. Mexican employers and American
employers in the Services sector are anticipating an
increase in prospects of three percentage points
compared to last quarter.

Net Employment Outlook

Industry Services
Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004
% % % %
Canada 23 23 25 26
Mexico 18 16 11 14
United States 24 26 21 24

2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,
Transport Storage and Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services, and Public Administration.

15
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

Global Employment Outlook

Over 35,000 employers have been interviewed across 19 countries and territories to measure anticipated
employment trends between July and September 2004.

Regional and International Comparisons

Employers in 16 of 19 countries expect more hiring
compared to last year at this time. Job prospects are
anticipated to be strongest in New Zealand, Canada,
the United States and Hong Kong for the quarter
ahead. Only German employers reported a negative
outlook, which remains unchanged from hiring levels
reported in the second-quarter survey.
When seasonal variations are removed from the United
States and UK data, the UK results are positive
although slightly down on the forecast from the
previous quarter. Job prospects in the United States
continue to be positive and are indicative of stable
hiring patterns to come.

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change

Americas Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q2 to Q3 2004
% %
Canada 24 25 1
Mexico 14 14 0
United States 22 (20)1 24 (20)1 2

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change

Asia Pacific Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q2 to Q3 2004
% %
Australia 18 17 1
Hong Kong 16 23 7
Japan 20 9 -11
New Zealand 39 30 -9
Singapore 8 19 11

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change

Europe Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q2 to Q3 2004
% %
Austria 11 2 -9
Belgium 9 11 2
France 4 4 0
Germany -4 -4 0
Ireland 9 18 9
Italy 5 5 0
Netherlands 4 6 2
Norway 7 10 3
Spain 9 14 5
Sweden 17 16 -1
UK 16 (13)1 14 (12)1 -2
1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity for the UK
and United States.

16
Sector Comparisons
Within this section, we outline variation in the Net
Employment Outlook across two broad categories:
Industry and Services. All of the countries surveyed,
except Germany, are predicting positive hiring activity
in both categories. Employers in the Services category
in New Zealand, Hong Kong, Canada, the United
States, Singapore and Ireland are most optimistic,
while employers in Germany, Austria, France and the
Netherlands are less positive.
Similarly, in the Industry category, job prospects are
expected to be positive in all countries with only
Germany reporting a negative Net Employment Outlook.
Strongest prospects for Industry are anticipated for
the second consecutive quarter in New Zealand, the
United States and Canada. Notably, Industry employers
in Sweden are also anticipating one of the most
optimistic forecasts for the third quarter.

Net Employment Outlook

Industry Services
Americas Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004
% % % %
Canada 23 23 25 26
Mexico 18 16 11 14
United States 24 26 21 24

Net Employment Outlook

Industry Services
Asia Pacific Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004
% % % %
Australia 19 16 18 17
Hong Kong 13 13 17 28
Japan 21 6 20 11
New Zealand 37 27 40 32
Singapore 5 9 9 22

Net Employment Outlook

Industry Services
Europe Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004
% % % %
Austria 17 1 6 2
Belgium 9 9 9 11
France 4 2 4 5
Germany -6 -4 -3 -3
Ireland 12 17 8 21
Italy 4 3 6 7
Netherlands 2 8 6 6
Norway 2 10 9 10
Spain 9 5 9 19
Sweden 17 22 18 15
UK 12 14 16 13

2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,
Transport, Storage & Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services, and Public Administration.

17
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

About the Survey Survey Question

All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted
the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment
quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or
at your location to change in the three months to the end of
decrease the number of employees in their workforce during
September 2004 as compared to the current quarter?”
the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 40
years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment
activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of Net Employment Outlook
the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment
Outlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of
Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area
employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and
of focus.
subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to
Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.
only forward-looking survey, asking employers to forecast The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.
employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys
and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what Seasonal Adjustment
occurred in the past. Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for the
Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived United States and United Kingdom to provide additional insight
all of its information from a single question. into the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to
review the data without the employment fluctuations that
Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative
normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a
sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it
clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to add
is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from
seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the
Manpower’s customer base.
future, as more historical data is compiled.
Robust: The survey is based on interviews with more than
35,000 public and private employers across 19 national Sectors
economies to measure anticipated employment trends each The industry sectors that are reported for each country in this
quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across report are representative of the local economy. In some areas
specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. of the report, we have reported the data in two broad sector
categories: Industry and Services. These categories are
Methodology consistent with standards of other respected international data
sources. The “Industry” category includes sectors such as:
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using
construction, manufacturing, mining and public utilities. The
a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest
“Services” category includes wholesale and retail trade;
standards in market research. The research team for the 19
restaurants and hotels; transportation and storage;
countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted
communication; finance; insurance; real estate; other business
includes Manpower’s Market Intelligence team; the Research &
services and public administration.
Diagnostics Division of The Empower Group – an independent
operating division of Manpower Inc.; NOP World and Grupo
IDM. The survey has been structured to be representative of
each national economy. The margin of error for all national,
regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.2%.

In the United States, the national survey is conducted by

Manpower’s North American Market Intelligence Team and
includes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews, the
margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.

18
History of the Survey
1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of
the United States survey, naming the report the
Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey
adopts the same forward-looking research format as the
United States survey and is the first of its kind in
Europe.
1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
Research methodology is updated to evolve with
advancements in the field of market research.
2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment
Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research
methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and
Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total
18 countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium,
Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy,
Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain,
Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.
2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
19
About Manpower Inc.
Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the
employment services industry, offering customers a continuum of
services to meet their needs throughout the employment and
business cycle. The company specializes in permanent,
temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment;
training; career transition and organizational consulting services.
Manpower’s worldwide network of 4,300 offices in 67 countries
and territories enables the company to meet the needs of its
400,000 customers per year, including small and medium size
enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the world’s largest
multinational corporations. The focus of Manpower’s work is on
raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-
reduction, enabling customers to concentrate on their core
business activities. In addition to the Manpower brand, the
company operates under the brand names of Right
Management Consultants, Jefferson Wells, Elan, Brook Street
and Empower. More information on Manpower Inc. is available at
www.manpower.com.
In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range of
HR services, in addition to providing administrative, industrial
and contact center personnel. Under the Manpower
Professional brand, the company places contract professionals
on assignment in areas such as information technology,
scientific, finance, engineering and telecommunications. More
information about Manpower’s US operation can be found at
www.us.manpower.com.
 3rd Quarter 2004

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

United States

Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217

Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com

© 2004, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

C O M M A J O B N o : 149049

E & O E. THESE PROOFS HAVE BEEN READ AND CHECKED,

B U T F I N A L R E S P O N S I B I L I T Y R E S T S W I T H T H E C L I E N T.
C L I E N T: M A N P O W E R ORDER No:

READER
S U B J E C T: U S A M E O S T E M P L AT E :
D O C U M E N T N A M E : 149049 USA Q304 COVER
S TO R E D : A P R I L PA G E N o : 1
T Y P E FA C E S : H E LV N E U E , VA R I O U S D AT E : 2 9 . 0 4 . 0 4

DESIGNER/OPERATOR
PROOF: FIRST PROOF SIZE: 80%
P U B L I C AT I O N : N / A
SIZE: 11” x 8.5” SCREEN:
P U B L I C AT I O N D AT E : N / A COLOUR DEADLINE:
12 Dorset Street • London W1U 6QS • Tel 020 7935 4554 • Fax 020 7935 4204 • ISDN 020 7224 1325