Documente Academic
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Documente Cultură
Lourdes Melgar
This essay looks at the current situation of the Mexican energy sector as the nations oil
production is declining and the government attempts to abate greenhouse gas emissions.
It argues that the energy reform approved in 2008 was limited in scope to addressing the
challenges ahead. It states that the incentives to undertake a profound transformation of
the energy sector encompass economic, energy security, and climate change considerations. It advances that Mexico should embrace an energy transition to a low-carbon
economy as a path toward sustainable development. The transition to a lower-carbon
energy sector requires innovative public policies and the political will to create a new
institutional framework. The nal section analyzes the potential to and the barriers to
prompting this transition.
Este ensayo considera la situacin actual del sector energtico mexicano en un contexto de
creciente cada de la produccin petrolera y de la necesidad de llevar a cabo polticas
tendientes a mitigar las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Se argumenta que la
Reforma Energtica de 2008 presenta serias limitaciones para responder a los retos nancieros, de seguridad energtica y de cambio climtico del pas. Por ello, se propone que
Mxico emprenda una profunda transformacin de su sector energtico a travs de la
transicin energtica hacia una economa baja en carbono. Esta transicin ofrece a Mxico
un camino hacia el desarrollo sustentable, pero requiere de polticas pblicas innovadoras
y de la voluntad poltica para crear un nuevo marco institucional. En la ltima seccin se
analizan el potencial y las barreras para avanzar hacia la transicin energtica.
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Key words: energy policy, climate change, energy reform in Mexico, low-carbon economy
ver the past decade, an international consensus has been emerging regarding the need to address simultaneously energy security and climate change
concerns. As scientic evidence has grown on the origins and potential destructive effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, policy makers
have been designing policies aimed at advancing toward a low-carbon economy.
Given its contribution to the problem, the energy sector is key to the solution.
Achieving the double objective of ensuring energy security and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions is no easy task. Energy policy requires long-term planning
and entails decisions that have an effect over the decades to come, whereas
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which in 2004 represented more than 60% of total production, was rapidly collapsing, restitution of reserves was at historically low levels, and major bottlenecks were apparent in the upstream and downstream side of Petrleos
Mexicanos (PEMEX), the national oil company. Given that oil revenues accounted
for more than 35% of government total revenues,2 the accelerated decline in crude
production foretold of a potential nancial crisis for the Caldern Administration. It is in this contextwell before the international nancial crisis struck the
worldthat President Caldern presented, in March 2008, a diagnosis of the state
of the oil sector and, on April 8, 2008, introduced before Congress an energy
reform bill.
Considering Mexicos political context, the presidents move was bold and
courageous. Since 1938, oil has been equated with national sovereignty, and the
states absolute control over oil resources, exploration, production, and processing is a fundamental emblem of the countrys identity.
Given the sensitive nature of the topic, the initiative of the Caldern administration was based on four premises: no constitutional change, no risk contracts,
no privatization of PEMEX, and no challenge to the PEMEX union. This initiative
was the result of an internal negotiation within the federal government and
aimed to address the decline in production and in the restitution of reserves, the
increasing importation of rened products (40% of Mexicos gasoline is
imported), the bottlenecks in product transportation, and serious managerial
shortcomings within PEMEX, yet the underlying objective of the presidential
proposal was to maximize oil revenues to avert the collapse of government
nances.
The initiative took into account what was politically feasible and not what was
actually necessary to tackle the crisis looming in PEMEX. It was called energy
reform, but centered on the oil sector. In this regard, it was limited in scope and
had a shortsighted view of the challenges and potential of the Mexican energy
sector, yet it had an unexpected advantage; for the rst time, Congress, the
private sector, and civil society undertook an in-depth discussion of the present
and future of the energy sector. Given the political distress the presidential bill
generated, the Senate Energy Commission convened a public forum on the
matter. From May 13 to July 22, 2008, hearings were held, gathering more than
160 experts who covered pertinent aspects of the issue. As a result, the scope of
analysis and the range of solutions were wide. After the hearings, both opposition parties in the Senate, the Partido Revolucionario Institucional and the Partido de
la Revolucin Democrtica, issued their own initiatives, taking as a point of departure the presidential one.
On November 28, 2008, Mexicos energy reform was issued, containing seven
new laws: ve directly related to PEMEX and two aimed at addressing issues of
energy transition to a low-carbon economy. The result was greeted with initial
euphoria. The executive and the legislative branches both viewed it as a signicant political success. A consensus had been reached on measures to move
Mexicos energy sector forward. The reform provided PEMEX with a new corporate governance, granting it greater budgetary and administrative autonomy. It
broadened the PEMEX board to include four professional members, created the
National Commission on Hydrocarbons, strengthened the Energy Regulatory
Commission, revamped the National Commission for Energy Savings into the
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National Commission for the Efcient Use of Energy, and set the bases for the
new by-laws and regulations for contracting for PEMEX, as well as for promoting
renewable energies and energy efciency.
A year later, however, it became evident that the agreed-upon reform had
signicant shortcomings; some of them derived from its content, others from its
implementation. The designation of the newly created high-level positions has
been the result of negotiations, with political considerations overriding technical
requirements. By-laws and regulations are often vague, without clear goals or
adequate mechanisms to reach the stated objectives. In the case of the oil industry,
the approved by-laws are already under legal dispute, with questions of unconstitutionality having been raised, including by advocates of opening the oil sector
to private investors (Grunstein, 2009). The unequivocal proof of the limits of the
energy reform of 2008 is that, in his State of the Union Address of September 2009,
President Caldern called for a second energy reform, but this time the needed
one, not the possible one.
Advocates of the approved reform often state, not without some merit, that it
is too early to evaluate its impact. During this rst year, the architecture of the
new design has been slowly put into place, yet given the magnitude of the
problem faced by the Mexican energy sector, it is becoming increasingly evident
that the tools provided barely address the short- and medium-term challenges of
the oil industry. It is impossible for a new legal structure to rapidly reverse years
of abandonment of the oil industry. Today, PEMEX is struggling as a result of
years of nancial exploitation, appalling underinvestment, poor decision making,
and a governmental policy of short-term benets to the detriment of the health
and viability of the oil company, which has been run not as an enterprise but as
an innite source of revenue for the government.
Output at Cantarell, the giant oil eld that gave power and prestige to the
Mexican oil industry, has fallen from 2.2 million barrels a day at its peak in
December 2003 to 659 thousand barrels a day in July 2009. According to PEMEX,
crude production fell from 3.383 million barrels a day in 2004 to 2.621 in 2009. Part
of the lost production from Cantarell was made up with production from
Ku-Maloob-Zaap, Ixtal-Manik, and Crudo Ligero Marino, which produce lighter
crude, improving the quality of the Mexican mix, but Chicontepec, the chosen
alternative to balance production, has failed to yield the expected outcome (Suro
Perez, 2009).
As a result of the signicant decline in oil production, exports fell from 1.793
million barrels a day in 2006 to 1.1 million barrels a day in August 2009. In
addition, the imports of rened products have escalated. For the rst time since
1981, Mexico has registered a hydrocarbon balance less than 1 million barrels a
day (Lajous, 2009). Some analysts contend that within the next decade, Mexico
could cease to be an exporting country, and increasingly, some argue that energy
policy should consider the possibility of setting limits on oil exports to pace the
rate of production and consumption of Mexicos limited oil resources.
There are fundamental questions that ought to be addressed with regard to the
future evolution of the Mexican oil sector, but in the short run, the main concern
of the government is the effect that the collapse of net exports is having on its
revenues. Between 2008 and 2009, oil revenues fell from 36 to 28% of government
revenues, partly because of the decline in oil prices, but also from the loss of net
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hydrocarbon exports. Mexico has been unable to seriously address its scal
dependency on oil revenues. The country is in urgent need of true scal reform,
which would expand the taxable base and provide alternative sources of income.
Without innovative scal reform, Mexico will be unable to promote sustained
economic development in the years to come.
Even in the best-case scenario, in which Mexico was able to reverse the declining trends in its oil production and reserves, even if a scheme were agreed upon
to rationally exploit existing reserves in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, it
would take close to a decade to start new production. Hence, a second energy
reform solely centered on the petroleum industry would not sufce to address
the nancial and energy security challenges the nation is facing. Additionally,
Mexico is increasingly committing to undertaking its international responsibilities with regard to climate change. Mexicos intention to abate emissions has
profound implications for the energy sector, given the high concentration of
fossil fuels in the national energy balance. Hence, an energy reform that focuses
mostly on increasing hydrocarbon production would fail to provide adequate
answers to the challenges ahead.
Thus far, the greatest shortcoming of Mexican energy reform is that it does not
consider energy policy globally and does not take into account crosscutting
issues such as climate change. In addition to being one of the top GHG emitters
in absolute terms, Mexico is a country with high vulnerability to climate change.
Hence, it has an ethical responsibility to promote the adoption of a comprehensive, legally binding accord and to move toward a low-carbon economy. Thus far,
the international commitments Mexico has undertaken with regard to climate
change are not being translated into public policies that abate emissions at the
rate the country is claiming they would. Some of the policy documents the
government has recently issued have important limitations, particularly with
regard to actions for the energy sector. The stakes are high, and the challenge
ahead is enormous, yet the transformation of the energy sector could be the
answer to directing the country back onto the path of sustainable development, as
it addresses its 3E equation: economic growth, energy security, and environmental concerns.
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Institute of Technology has pointed out, no technology is a silver bullet. There are
signicant uncertainties about the potential of future technologies, and local
conditions will have to be assessed to determine the best array of options. The
future energy system will be a mix of several fuels and technologies. The mosteffective strategy for public policy makers and private investors will be to adopt
a sequential approach to determining portfolios and generating options
(Webster, 2009). This energy system will require a new nancial architecture to
support it, which will call for additional investments in the energy sector, on the
order of $10,500 billion, between 2010 and 2030 (International Energy Agency,
2009b, p. 257). It will also require building, at the national and international level,
the institutional infrastructure needed to launch a low-carbon economy.
In terms of energy policy, the move toward a lower-carbon economy entails
fostering energy efciency; promoting fuel diversication; including nuclear
energy and rapidly expanding renewable resources; developing and swiftly
deploying new technologies for the generation of energy and for carbon capturing and storage; implementing a cap-and-trade mechanism to limit emissions
and to generate resources to nance this profound transformation of the energy
sector; and the use of scal instruments, such as a carbon tax, to favor carbon
reduction.
Just as the 19th century saw the reign of coal and the 20th century that of oil, the
21st century is looking to be the century of clean energies. Nonetheless, as the
IEA stresses, fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of primary energy at
least for the rst half of the century, representing up to 80% of the share of world
energy demand between 2007 and 2030. In a business-as-usual scenario, during
the same period, the projected growth of coal demand would be 53%, and that of
natural gas, 42%. The demand for oil would recover starting in 2010, rising 24%
over the next 20 years, reaching 105 million barrels a day in 2030 (International
Energy Agency, 2009b, fact sheet). In a 450 ppm of CO2-e stabilization scenario, in
2030, fossil fuels would constitute 68% of global primary demand. Even with
stringent policies to curb the demand of fossil fuels, under this scenario, by 2030,
the demand for natural gas and oil would be higher than in 2007; only the
demand for coal would decline relative to 2007 levels (International Energy
Agency, 2009b, p. 195).
Given the lifespan of energy infrastructure, the required investments to build
new plants, the cost of fuel switching, and the technology needed to improve
efciency and reduce emissions, the change to a low-carbon energy system
cannot be an immediate one. It is a path that involves a transition period during
which, as Gramsci would say, the old is dying and the new is yet to be born. In
Mexico, this stage is being called energy transition, although some scholars
prefer the phrase energy transformation (Universidad Nacional Autnoma de
Mxico, 2009). International agencies and other governments favor such terms as
green growth, lower-carbon economy, and move towards clean energies.
Recently, the IEA coined the expression low-carbon energy revolution, a
phrase that captures the magnitude of the challenge ahead.
It is an enticing proposition for policy makers worldwide to have the rare
opportunity to design and build a new architecture for the realm of energy, with
its technological, nancial, political, and social structures. From the perspective
of energy analysts, the world is moving in fascinating directions: Current debates
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energies are intermittent; sites with optimum conditions are not necessarily close
to the grid, and they face opposition to their deployment in some communities.
In designing policies for a lower-carbon energy sector, policy makers have to
take into account the crosscutting nature of climate change, internalize the externalities, price carbon so as to compare alternatives on an equal basis, and include
a diverse energy matrix.
Thus far, in energy policy, the leading comparative element has been cost,
giving an advantage to the cheapest options. For instance, in the power sector,
coal-red generation plants tend to be favored because the cost of a kilowatt-hour
produced is cheaper than that generated in a wind-power plant or a nuclear
reactor. The initial cost of capital in a coal-red plant is more than double that of
a gas combined-cycle plant, but the cost of fuel is one-fourth. A nuclear power
plant requires an initial investment almost 50% higher than that of a coal-red
power plant, yet the cost of fuel is almost half that of coal, and the heating factor
is higher. If GHG emissions were taken into account in the comparison and the
cost of CO2 was factored in, the results for the most-competitive options would be
different. Decision makers need to consider the new variables urgently because
they are choosing alternatives that will lock in certain technologies with their
resulting emissions for decades to come.
Over the past few years, most progress in terms of energy transition has been
obtained in the power sector. Improvements have been attained in energy efciency for buildings and appliances, and steps have been taken to move forward
in the transportation sector, even if the results are still modest at the commercial
level. Energy transition requires a profound transformation of society, a fundamental change in consumption habits, and an awareness of the need to protect
our environment. Some fear that the move to a lower-carbon economy will bring
about a decline in standards of living, although it could be argued that we are
being offered the opportunity to improve our quality of life, because we would
adopt new patters of production, consumption, and behavior that could become
the motor for sounder, more-sustainable development.
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makers have not been willing to undertake because of the presumed consequences for the oil sector.
In 1994, the Law on Public Service in Electric Energy opened a small window for
private participation in power generation. Fifteen years later, private investors
provide about 7% of the electricity produced in Mexico for self-supply. The
percentage would go up to around 30% if IPP were included. In fact, through the
Comisin Federal de Electricidad (CFE), the state controls decisions on power
generation, transmission, and distribution.
Independent producers face economic and technical barriers to fostering the
development of alternative generation in Mexico, particularly of renewable energies, because the policies of the CFE and the Finance Secretariat are based solely
on cost minimization and do not take into account externalities. Furthermore,
access to the grid can be difcult because of technical and geographical challenges, in addition to CFEs mandate to purchase electricity at the lowest cost.
Finally, electricity fees do not vary with demand. Current regulations do not
allow inuencing demand by varying rates. This will have to be addressed if
Mexico is to develop smart grids, in order to reduce transmission and distribution losses and better dispatch intermittent power produced from renewable
sources. The latter is not only a growing requirement of a diversied generation
basket, but also a commitment undertaken by President Caldern at the NAFTA
Summit in Guadalajara, as the three leaders agreed to collaborate with lowcarbon, climate-friendly technologies, including the construction of an intelligent
North American network for more efcient and reliable electric connections
(North American Leaders Declaration, 2009).
In terms of renewable sources of energy, once again, nature has blessed
Mexico. The country has outstanding potential in geothermal, wind, and solar
generation, and signicant potential in small hydropower. The main barrier to
the full development of clean energies is political. The decision makers at CFE
are not convinced of the need to foster renewables; more importantly, they feel
threatened by them. The Mexican energy sector is lled with vested interests;
CFE is not the exception. The Programa de Obras e Inversiones del Sector Elctrico
(POISE) 20092017, which presents the investment plan for the next six years,
promotes further use of fossil fuels, including fostering coal, and allows for
only a minor push for renewables, to be developed mostly by private investors.
Lip service is paid by establishing pilot projects for solar energy and a small
increase in wind generation, but the majority of the investment goes to keeping
business as usual, that is, promoting natural gas combined-cycle generation and
coal, even if both sources of fuel have to be imported because domestic production is insufcient to meet demand. No legislation needs to be amended or
issued for CFE to increase its geothermal or other renewable portfolio, but
it does need the political will to do so and the full support of the Finance
Secretariat (Melgar Palacios, 2009).
Even if the nancial aspects are taken into account, fuel shift is basically a
political decision to be taken by the Energy Secretariat and CFE and supported by
the Finance Secretariat. Like other Latin American nations, Mexico is making the
mistake of assuming that fuel diversication entails the promotion of coal, which
is still one of the cheapest available fuels. The decision does not weigh the fact
that, in a low-carbon world, coal-red plants could become expensive if a tax on
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carbon is levied or if abatement credits are eventually required. Mitigating emissions with carbon capture and storage is still a couple of decades away, and, if it
actually works, will prove to be an expensive proposition. If Mexico invests in
new coal-red plants, the country will increase its CO2 intensive capacity, with its
irreversible carbon lock-in.
As mentioned earlier, establishing smart grids is not only desirable to
promote a diverse generation basket, but is already an international commitment of the country. Yet this sole initiative challenges to its core the structure
of the system that has sustained the Mexican power sector. Profound political
work is needed not only to convince CFE to give up some of its power and
control, but also to rally the support of the Finance Secretariat, which could see
smart grids, with their variable rates and transparency, as a threat to a source
of revenue from CFE. In this specic area, a fundamental change in the way the
Mexican power sector is conceived is needed. Liberalization does not have to
be the absolute answer, but key changes are needed in terms of rates and rights
of entry into the grid. In addition, signicant investments are required to
update transmission lines to meet the technical challenges of a more-exible
generation mix.
Given state control of PEMEX and CFE, co-generation could be widely promoted, yet even PEMEX nds it uninteresting to co-generate beyond its needs
because of the low rates at which CFE buys its additional production. Industry
faces a similar dilemma. Purchasing rates ought to be revised if co-generation
abatement potential is to be realized.
Even with its renewed interest, nuclear power generation remains highly controversial, yet the record in Mexico has been positive, and the option should not
be discarded out of hand. Legislation does not need to be passed to install two
additional reactors in Laguna Verde, the current site of the Mexican nuclear
power plant, or to develop new sites. The problem, once again, is political. In a
country where the president inaugurates even the tiniest infrastructure project,
the nuclear power plant of Laguna Verde has never been ofcially unveiled. No
politician wants to invest its capital in a debate that will undoubtedly arouse
erce opposition from some sectors of the population. The challenge is not
insurmountable; the required awareness and public opinion campaign has never
been undertaken. Mexico could benet from international best practices on the
matter to reduce opposition to nuclear power generation. As the country loses the
security of supply derived from oil, increasing its nuclear generation will become
important, particularly to ensure base-load generation, because renewable energies (wind and solar) tend to be intermittent.
Mexico has agreed to participate in efforts to promote carbon capture and
storage in North America. Initial efforts can be made in the petroleum industry,
with the injection of methane into oil caverns, but the full potential will not be
realized within the next 1520 years, because some of the technology, particularly
for the power sector, is still in the stage of development and will not be commercially available before 2025. In addition to signicant investments in research and
development, carbon capture and storage poses geological challenges that will
need to be carefully weighed, given that Mexico is in a highly seismic region.
The Finance Secretariat has identied energy efciency as a priority for action
in the current administration. It is seen as the low-hanging fruit that should be
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Conclusions
Energy transition provides a unique opportunity to foster sustainable development in Mexico at a time when the future, under a business-as-usual scenario, looks grim. Through an energy transition to a lower-carbon economy,
Mexico has the opportunity to diversify its sources of energy just as its oil
production is declining, ensuring its future supply of electricity and using its
limited petroleum resources more effectively. In addition, developing new technologies could become an area of industrial development in Mexico, because
wind generators, solar panels, and other equipment could be produced for
internal consumption and exports. Qualied labor already exists in some
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Notes
1
Most publications rank Mexico as number 13 in terms of total emissions worldwide. That ranking
has as year of comparison 2000. In preparation for the Copenhagen Conference, the World Resource
Institute issued updated rankings using 2006 data. In this new ranking, Mexico is the number 10
emitter in absolute terms.
2
For most of this decade, oil revenues have accounted for approximately 35% of government
revenues. In the rst semester of 2009, the percentage fell to 28% as a result of the combined decline
in petroleum production and the international price of oil.
3
The Copenhagen Conference is coming to an end just as this essay is being nalized. In its closing
hours, the informal meeting of major economies overtook the UN process, with a last-minute nonbinding agreement between the United States, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa. An analysis of
the consequences of this outcome could be the subject of another paper.
4
On December 15, 2009, the Chambers of Deputies passed an amendment to this law, which is
currently under consideration of the Senate, to increase the required percentage of power generation
with clean energies.
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