IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 16, NO.

4, NOVEMBER 2001

595

Bibliography on the Application of Probability

Methods in Power System Reliability Evaluation
19961999
Roy Billinton, Fellow, IEEE, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Senior Member, IEEE, and
Lina Bertling, Student Member, IEEE

AbstractThis paper presents a bibliography of papers on

the subject of power system reliability evaluation. Papers in such
areas as: probabilistic load flow, probabilistic production costing,
probabilistic transient stability evaluation etc. have not been
included except where they specifically address power system
reliability evaluation.
It includes material which has been made available since
the publication of six previous papers Bibliography on the
Application of Probability Methods in Power System Reliability
Evaluation, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems
PAS-91, 1972, pp. 649660, Pas-97, 1978, pp. 22352242, PAS-103,
1984, pp. 275282, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 3,
no. 4, Nov. 1988, pp. 15551564, Vol. 9, No. 1, Feb. 1994, pp. 4149,
and Vol. 14, no. 1, Feb. 1999, pp. 5157.

I. INTRODUCTION

ONSIDERABLE activity has occurred in the development and application of probabilistic techniques for
power system reliability evaluation since the six previous bibliographies were published in 1972, 1978, 1984, 1988, 1994,
and 1999. Only those papers which were published before the
end of 1999 have been included in this bibliography.
II. STATIC GENERATING CAPACITY RELIABILITY EVALUATION
1) An Alternative Approach to Rounding Off Generation
Models in Power System Reliability Evaluation, C.
Singh, N. V. Gubbala, Electric Power Systems Research,
Vol. 36, no. 1, Jan. 1996, pp. 3744.
2) Forced-Outage Rates of Generating Units Based on
Expert Valuation, S. F. Noor, J. R. McDonald, IEEE
Transactions on Reliability, Vol. 45, No. 1, March 1996,
pp. 138140.
3) A Sequential Simulation Technique for Adequacy
Evaluation of Generating Systems Including Wind
Energy, R. Billinton, H. Chen, R. Ghajar, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, Vol. 11, no. 4, Dec. 1996,
pp. 728734.

Manuscript received July 17, 2000.

R. Billinton and M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad are with the Power Systems Research
Group, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada.
L. Bertling is with the Department of Electric Power Engineering, Kungl
Tekniska Hogskolan, Stockholm, Sweden.
Publisher Item Identifier S 0885-8950(01)09423-8.

4) Power System Health Analysis, R. Billinton, M.

Fotuhi-Firuzabad, S. Aboreshaid, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 55, no. 1, Jan. 1997,
pp. 18.
5) Application of Frequency and Duration Approach
in Generation Planning, A. S. Malik, B. J. Cory,
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, no. 3,
Aug. 1997, pp. 10761084.
6) Loss of Load Costs in Generating Capacity Reliability
Evaluation, A. M. Leite da Silva, A. G. Perez, J. W.
Marangon Lima, J. C. O. Mello, Electric Power Systems
Research, Vol. 41, no. 2, 1997, pp. 109116.
7) Economical Generation Reserve in Isolated Power Systems, M. A. H. El-Sayed, Electric Machines and Power
Systems, Vol. 26, no. 9, 1998, pp. 963976.
8) Generating Capacity Planning Criteria Determination
for Developing Countries: Case Study of Nepal, R.
Billinton, M. Pandey, IEE Proceedings: Generation,
Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 5, 1999,
pp. 491495.
9) Determination of the Optimum Site-Matching Wind
Turbine Using Risk-Based Capacity Benefit Factors,
R. Billinton, H. Chen, IEE Proceedings: Generation,
Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 1, 1999,
pp. 96100.
10) Individual Generating Station Reliability Assessment, R. Billinton, H. Chen, J. Zhou, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 4, Feb. 1999,
pp. 12381244.
11) Application of Monte Carlo Simulation to Generating
System Well-being Analysis, R. Billinton, R. Karki,
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 3,
1999, pp. 11721177.
12) New Methodology for the Provision of Reserve in
an Isolated Power System, J. W. OSullivan, M.
J. OMalley, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
Vol. 14, no. 2, 1999, pp. 519524.
13) Capacity Reserve Assessment Using System
Well-being Analysis, R. Billinton, R. Karki, IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 2, 1999,
pp. 433438.
14) Capacity Planning in Small Isolated Power Systems
Using Probabilistic Methods, R. Billinton, R. Karki,

08858950/01$10.00 2001 IEEE

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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 16, NO. 4, NOVEMBER 2001

IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 1, 1999, pp. 6164.
8)
III. MULTI-AREA RELIABILITY EVALUATION
1) A New Approach to Evaluate Two Area Interconnected
Power Generating Systems Reliability, A. K. Azad, R. B.
Misra, Microelectronics Reliability, Vol. 36, no. 10, 1996,
pp. 15891594.
2) Capacity Assistance Distributions for Arbitrarily
Configured Multi-Area Networks, J. Mitra, C. Singh,
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, no. 4,
Nov. 1997, pp. 15301535.
3) Probabilistic Assessment of Interconnection Assistance
Between Power Systems, G. Hamoud, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, no. 2, May 1998,
pp. 535540.
4) Methods and Techniques for Reliability Assessment of
Interconnected Systems, O. Bertoldi, Electra, CIGRE,
Task Force 38.03.11, no. 179, Aug. 1998, pp. 129134.
5) Bayesian Network Model for Reliability Assessment of
Power Systems, D. C. Yu, T. C. Nguyen, P. Haddawy,
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 2,
1999, pp. 426432.

9)

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12)

13)
IV. COMPOSITE GENERATION-TRANSMISSION RELIABILITY
EVALUATION
1) Reliability Assessment of Autonomous Power Systems
Incorporating HVDC Interconnection Links, E. N. Dialynas, N. C. Koskolos, D. Agoris, IEEE Transactions on
Power Delivery, Vol. 11, no. 1, Jan. 1996, pp. 519525.
2) Generation/Transmission Power System Reliability
Evaluation by Monte-Carlo Simulation Assuming a
Fuzzy Load Description, J. Tome Saraiva, V. Miranda,
L. M. V. G. Pinto, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
Vol. 11, no. 2, May 1996, pp. 690695.
3) Composite Reliability Evaluation of Interconnected
Power Systems, M. A. H. El-Sayed, H. J. Hinz, Electric
Machines and Power Systems, Vol. 24, no. 6, 1996,
pp. 609622.
4) Delivery Point Reliability Measurement, A. A.
Chowdhury, D. O. Koval, IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications, Vol. 32, no. 6, Nov.Dec. 1996,
pp. 14401448.
5) Composite System Adequacy Assessment Using
Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation With Variance Reduction Techniques, R. Billinton, A. Jonnavithula, IEE
Proceedings Generation, Transmission and Distribution,
Vol. 144, no. 1, Jan. 1997, pp. 16.
6) Topological Analysis in Bulk Power System Reliability
Evaluation, S. Jonnavithula, R. Billinton, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems Vol. 12, no. 1, Feb. 1997,
pp. 456463.
7) Integration of Non-Utility Generating Facilities Into
the Reliability Assessment of Composite Generation and
Transmission Power Systems, E. N. Dialynas, D. J.

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Papakammenos, N. C. Koskolos, IEEE Transactions on

Power Systems, Vol. 12, no. 1, Feb. 1997, pp. 464470.
Composite System Reliability Evaluation Using
State Space Pruning, C. Singh, J. Mitra, IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, no. 1,
Feb. 1997, pp. 471479.
Effects of Voltage Collapse Problems in the Reliability
Evaluation of Composite Systems, A. C. G. Melo,
J. C. O. Mello, S. Granville, IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, Vol. 12, no. 1, Feb. 1997, pp. 480488.
Effects of Preventive Maintenance on Circuit Breakers
and Protection Systems Upon Substation Reliability, J.
J. Meeuwsen, W. L. Kling, Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 40, no. 3, 1997, pp. 181188.
Application of Chronological Load Modeling in Composite Reliability Worth Evaluation, J. C. O. Mello,
M. V. F. Pereira, A. M. Leite da Silva, A. C. G. Melo,
Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 40, no. 3, 1997,
pp. 167174.
Application of Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation
to Evaluation of Distributions of Composite System
Indices, R. Billinton, A. Jonnavithula, IEE Proceedings
Generation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 144,
no. 2, March 1997, pp. 8790.
Efficient Loss-Of-Load Cost Evaluation by Combined
Pseudo-Sequential and State Transition Simulation, J.
C. O. Mello, A. M. Leite da Silva, M. V. F. Pereira, IEE
Proceedings Generation, Transmission and Distribution,
Vol. 144, no. 2, March 1997, pp. 147154.
Diagnosing the Health of Bulk Generation and HVDC
Transmission Systems, R. Billinton, S. Aboreshaid,
M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, IEEE Transactions on Power
Systems, Vol. 12, no. 4, Nov. 1997, pp. 17401745.
Features That Influence Composite Power System
Reliability Worth Assessment, A. Jonnavithula, R.
Billinton, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems Vol. 12,
no. 4, Nov. 1997, pp. 15361541.
Energy and Load Curtailment Based Indices
in Probabilistic Transient Stability Studies, R.
Billinton, S. Aboreshaid, Journal of King Saud
University-Engineering Sciences, Vol. 9, no. 2, 1997.
Probing the New IEEE Reliability Test System
(RTS-96): HL-II Assessment, J. M. S. Pinheiro, C. R.
R. Dornellas, M. Th. Schilling, A. C. G. Melo, J. C.
Mello, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13,
No. 1, Feb. 1998, pp. 171176.
Algorithm for Failure Frequency and Duration Assessment of Composite Power Systems, R. Billinton, W.
Zhang, IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and
Distribution, Vol. 145, no. 2, March 1998, pp. 117122.
Application of an Adequacy Equivalent Method in
Bulk Power System Reliability Evaluation, W. Zhang,
R. Billinton, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
Vol. 13, no. 2, May 1998, pp. 661666.
Voltage Stability Considerations in Composite Power
System Reliability Evaluation, R. Billinton, S. Aboreshaid, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13,
no. 2, May 1998, pp. 655660.

BILLINTON et al.: BIBLIOGRAPHY ON THE APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY METHODS IN POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY EVALUATION 19961999

21) Bulk Load Points Reliability Evaluation Using a Security Based Model, M. E. Khan, IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, Vol. 13, No. 2, May 1998, pp. 456461.
22) Bus-Based Reliability Indices and Associated Costs in
the Bulk Power System, S. M. Rios, V. P. Vidal, D. L.
Kiguel, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13,
no. 3, Aug. 1998, pp. 719724.
23) Reliability Analysis of Electric Utility SCADA Systems, A. G. Bruce, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, no. 3, Aug. 1998, pp. 844849.
24) Assessment of Risk-Based Capacity Benefit Factors
Associated With Wind Energy Conversion Systems, R.
Billinton, H. Chen, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, no. 3, Aug. 1998, pp. 11911196.
25) Incorporation of Voltage Stability Operating Limits in
Composite System Adequacy Assessment: BC Hydros
Experience", W. Li, Y. Mansour, E. Vaahedi, D. N.
Pettet, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13,
no. 4, Nov. 1998, pp. 12791284.
26) Value-Based Reliability Enhancement Scheme for
Bulk Transmission System Planning, J. A. Momoh, Y.
Wang, M. Elfayoumy, B. Mittelstadt, S. K. Agarwal, R.
Adapa, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13,
No. 4, Nov. 1998, pp. 15411547.
27) A Reliability Approach to Transmission Expansion
Planning Using Fuzzy Fault-Tree Model, R. S. Chanda,
P. K. Bhattacharjee, Electric Power Systems Research,
Vol. 45, no. 2, 1998, pp. 101108.
28) State Extension in Adequacy Evaluation of Composite
Power SystemsConcept and Algorithm, R. Billinton,
W. Zhang, Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 47,
no. 3, 1998, pp. 189195.
29) Reliability Equivalents for AC Adequacy Evaluation of
Large Power Systems, H. M. Maghraby, A. S. Farag,
and A. N. Cheema, Electric Machines and Power Systems, Vol. 26, no. 5, 1998, pp. 507528.
30) Application of DC Equivalents to the Reliability
Evaluation of Composite Power Systems, H. A. M.
Maghraby, R. N. Allan, IEEE Transactions on Power
Systems, Vol. 14, no. 1, Feb. 1999, pp. 355361.
31) Deregulated Power System Planning Using a Reliability Network Equivalent Technique, R. Billinton, P.
Wang, IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and
Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 1, 1999, pp. 2530.
32) Probabilistic Approach to Determining Generation
Equivalence to a Transmission Facility, A. A. Chowdhury, D. O. Koval, IEEE Transactions on Industry
Applications, Vol. 35, no. 6, 1999, pp. 12601264.
33) Adequacy Equivalent Development of Composite Generation and Transmission Systems Using a DC Load
Flow, R. Billinton, W. Zhang, Reliability Engineering
and System Safety, Vol. 65, no. 3, 1999, pp. 295305.
34) Well-being Framework for Composite Generation and
Transmission System Reliability Evaluation, L. Goel,
C. Feng, IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission
and Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 5, 1999, pp. 528534.
35) Reliability and Production Assessment of Wind Energy Production Connected to the Electric Network

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597

Supply, J. R. Ubeda, M. A. R. Rodriguez Garcia, IEE

Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 2, 1999, pp. 169175.
Framework of Voltage Stability Assessment in Power
System Reliability Analysis, J. A. Momoh, Y. V.
Makarov, W. Mittelstadt, IEEE Transactions on Power
Systems, Vol. 14, no. 2, 1999, pp. 484491.
Composite System Reliability Evaluation Based on
Monte-Carlo Simulation Combined With Outages
Screening, Y. Guo, Y. Xi, K. Xiao, H. Yang, IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 2, 1999,
pp. 785790.
Pruning and Simulation for Determination of Frequency and Duration Indices of Composite Power
Systems, J. Mitra, C. Singh, IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 3, 1999, pp. 899905.
Comparison of Alternative Methods for Evaluating
Loss of Load Costs in Generation and Transmission
Systems, L. A. F. Manso, A.M.L. da Silva, J. C. O.
Mello, Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 50, no. 2,
1999, pp. 107114.
Reliability Planning for Composite Electric Power Systems, C. Su, G. Lii, Electric Power Systems Research,
Vol. 51, no. 1, 1999, pp. 2331.

V. OPERATING RESERVE RELIABILITY EVALUATION

1) Response Health Constraints in Economic Load Dispatch Considering Standby Units, Interruptible Loads
and Postponable Outages, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, R.
Billinton, S. Aboreshaid, IEE Proceedings Generation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 143, no. 6,
Nov. 1996, pp. 599607.
2) Unit Commitment Health Analysis for Interconnected
Systems, R. Billinton, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, S. Aboreshaid, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12,
no. 3, Aug. 1997, pp. 11941201.
3) Risk-Based Security Index for Determining Operating
Limits in Stability-Limited Electric Power Systems,
J. D. McCalley, A. A. Fouad, B. L. Agrawal, R. G.
Farmer, V. Vittal, A. A. Irizarry-Rivera, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, no. 3, Aug. 1997,
pp. 12101219.
4) An Energy Based Approach to Evaluate Optimum
Interruptible Load Carrying Capability in Isolated
and Interconnected Systems Including Well-being
Constraints, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, R. Billinton,
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, no. 4,
Nov. 1997, pp. 16761681.
5) Reliability Analysis for Hydrothermal Generating Systems Including the Effect of Maintenance Scheduling,
J. Juan, I. Ortega, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
Vol. 12, no. 4, Nov. 1997, pp. 15611568.
6) Reliability Evaluation in Operational Planning of
Power Systems, A. R. Abdelaziz, Electric Machines
and Power Systems, Vol. 25, no. 4, 1997, pp. 419428.

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7) Application of Perturbation Analysis to Sensitivity

Computations of Generating Units and System Reliability, H. Salehfar, S. Trihadi, IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, Vol. 13, no. 1, Feb. 1998, pp. 152158.
8) Probabilistic Evaluation of the Effect of Maintenance
on ReliabilityAn Application, J. Endrenyi, G. J. Anders, A. M. Leite da Silva, IEEE Transactions on Power
Systems, Vol. 13, no. 2, May 1998, pp. 576582.
9) Risk Due to Load Forecast Uncertainty in Short Term
Power System Planning, A. P. Douglas, A. M. Breipohl,
F. N. Lee, R. Adapa, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, no. 4, Nov. 1998, pp. 14931499.
10) Interruptible Load Considerations in Well-being Analysis of Interconnected Systems, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad,
Quality and Reliability Engineering International,
Vol. 14, no. 3, 1998, pp. 137144.
11) Adequacy Assessment Using a Modified Four-State
Model, N. Chowdhury, H. Khonsari, Quality and
Reliability Engineering International, Vol. 14, no. 3,
1998, pp. 145151.
12) Power Systems Operations Reliability Assessment
in Brazil, M. Th. Schilling, M. B. Do Coutto Filho,
Quality and Reliability Engineering International,
Vol. 14, no. 3, 1998, pp. 153158.
13) Value-Based Reliability for Short Term Operational
Planning, J. A. Momoh, M. Elfayoumy, W. Mittelstadt,
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 4,
Feb. 1999, pp. 15331542.
14) Application of Probabilistic Risk-Shaving Technique
in Generation Planning, A. S. Malik, B. J. Cory, P. D.
C. Wijayatunga, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
Vol. 14, no. 4, Feb. 1999, pp. 15431548.
15) Leveling Reliability in Systems With Large Hydro Resources, C. Gonzalez, J. Juan, IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 1, Feb. 1999, pp. 2328.
16) Unit Commitment Health Analysis in Composite
Generation and Transmission Systems Considering
Stand-by Units, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, R. Billinton,
IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 2, March 1999, pp. 164168.
17) Reliability Evaluation for Hydrothermal Generating
Systems: Application to the Spanish Case, C. Gonzalez, J. Juan, Reliability Engineering & System Safety,
Vol. 64, no. 1, April 1999, pp. 8997.
18) Extending Unit Commitment Health Analysis to
Include Transmission Considerations, M. FotuhiFiruzabad, R. Billinton, M. E. Khan, Electric Power
Systems Research, Vol. 50, no. 1, 1999, pp. 3542.

VI. TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM RELIABILITY

EVALUATION
1) Power Distribution System Planning With Reliability
Modeling and Optimization, Y. Tang, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 11, no. 1, Feb. 1996,
pp. 181189.

2) Optimal Switching Device Placement in Radial Distribution Systems R. Billinton, S. Jonnavithula, IEEE
Transactions Power Delivery, Vol. 11, no. 3, July 1996,
pp. 16461651.
3) Distribution System Reliability Assessment Using Hierarchical Markov Modeling, R. E. Brown, S. Gupta,
R. D. Christie, S. S. Venkata, R. Fletcher, IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 11, no. 4, Oct. 1996,
pp. 19291934.
4) Minimum Cost Analysis of Feeder Routing in Distribution System Planning, S. Jonnavithula, R. Billinton,
IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 11, no. 4,
Oct. 1996, pp. 19351940.
5) Model for the Seismic Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Transmission Systems, A. H.-S. Ang, J. A.
Pires, R. Villaverde, Reliability Engineering & System
Safety, Vol. 51, no. 1, 1996, pp. 722.
6) Reliability Indices of a Radial Distribution System
With Sectionalizing as a Function of Network Structure
Parameters, G. Levitin, S. Mazal-Tov, D. Elmakis,
Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 36, no. 2, 1996,
pp. 7380.
7) Distribution System Reliability Evaluation Using
the Monte Carlo Simulation Method, X. Liang, L.
Goel, Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 40, no. 2,
Feb. 1997, pp. 7583.
8) Reliability of Telecommunications for Bulk Power
System Teleprotection, M. Khademi, IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 12, no. 2, April 1997,
pp. 601606.
9) Transmission System Protection: A Reliability Study,
B. Hussain, C. E. Beck, T. E. Wiedman, C. R. Sufana,
IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 12, no. 2,
April 1997, pp. 675680.
10) Automated Primary Distribution System Design: Reliability and Cost Optimization, R. E. Brown, S. Gupta,
R. D. Christie, S. S. Venkata, R. Fletcher, IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 12, no. 2, April 1997,
pp. 10171022.
11) Reliability Centered Maintenance for Transmission
Systems, M. E. Beehler, IEEE Transactions on Power
Delivery, Vol. 12, no. 2, April 1997, pp. 10231028.
12) Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Systems With
Non-Exponential Down Times, S. Asgarpoor, M. J.
Mathine, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12,
no. 2, May 1997, pp. 579584.
13) Development of Reliability Targets for Planning Transmission Facilities Using Probabilistic TechniquesA
Utility Approach, S. K. Agarwal, W. V. Torre, IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 2,
May 1997, pp. 704709.
14) Quantitative Reliability Analysis of Distribution Systems: Repair Times, D. M Rigler, W. R. Hodgkins, R.
N. Allan, Power Engineering Journal, Vol. 11, no. 4,
Aug. 1997, pp. 165168.
15) New Planning Model for Assessing the Effects of
Transmission Capacity Constraints on the Reliability
of Generation Supply for Large Nonequivalenced

BILLINTON et al.: BIBLIOGRAPHY ON THE APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY METHODS IN POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY EVALUATION 19961999

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Electric Networks, E. G. Preston, W. M. Grady, M.

L. Baughman, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
Vol. 12, no. 3, Aug. 1997, pp. 13671373.
Substation Reliability Evaluation Including Switching
Actions With Redundant Components, J. J. Meeuwsen,
W. L. Kling, IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,
Vol. 12, no. 4, Oct. 1997, pp. 14721479.
Reliability and Life Cycle Cost Estimates of 400 KV
Substation Layouts, D. Karlsson, H. E. Olovsson, L.
Wallin, C. E. Solver, IEEE Transactions Power Delivery,
Vol. 12, no. 4, Oct. 1997, pp. 14861492.
Distribution System Reliability Assessment: Momentary Interruptions and Storms, R. E. Brown, S. Gupta,
R. D. Christie, S. S. Venkata, R. Fletcher, IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 12, no. 4, Oct. 1997,
pp. 15691575.
State System Markov Model for
Generalized
Station-Oriented Reliability Evaluation, R. Billinton,
H. Chen, J. Zhou, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
Vol. 12, no. 4, Nov. 1997, pp. 15111517.
Modeling the Reliability of Distribution Line Structures, R. H. Stillman, M. S. Mackisack, M. Griffin,
Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 41, no. 2, 1997,
pp. 8590.
Reliability Network Equivalent Approach to Distribution System Reliability Evaluation, R. Billinton, P.
Wang, IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and
Distribution, Vol. 145, no. 2, March 1998, pp. 149153.
Reliability Standards Versus Development of Electric Power Industry, D. Holmber, T. Ostrup, M.
Amorouayeche, A. Invernizzi, Electra, CIGRE, Advisory Group 28.03, no. 177, April 1998, pp. 95102.
Evaluating Strategies for Reliable Distribution, A.
T. Brint, W. R. Hodgkins, D. M. Rigler, S. A. Smith,
IEEE Computer Applications in Power, Vol. 11, no. 3,
July 1998, pp. 4347.
Demand-Side Optimal Selection of Switching Devices
in Radial Distribution System Planning, P. Wang,
R. Billinton, IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 145, no. 4, July 1998,
pp. 409414.
Modeling the Influence of Preventive Maintenance on
Protection System Reliability Performance, S. T. J. A.
Vermeulen, H. Rijanto, F. A. Van der Duyn Schouten,
IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 13, no. 4,
Oct. 1998, pp. 10271032.
Using Monte Carlo Simulation for Overall Distribution
System Reliability Worth Assessment, Y. Ou, L. Goel,
IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 5, 1999, pp. 535540.
Survey of Distribution Reliability Measurement Practices in the U.S., C. A. Warren, R. Ammon, G. Welch,
IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 14, no. 1,
Jan. 1999, pp. 250257.
Reliability Comparison of Substation Designs, D.
Atanackovic, D. T. McGillis, F. D. Galiana, IEEE
Transactions Power Delivery, Vol. 14, no. 3, 1999,
pp. 903910.

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29) Determining Number and Timing of Substation Spare

Transformers Using a Probabilistic Cost Analysis
Approach, W. Li, E. Vaahedi, Y. Mansour, IEEE
Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 14, no. 3, 1999,
pp. 934939.
30) Modeling the Impact of Substations on Distribution
Reliability, R. E. Brown, T. M. Taylor, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, No. 1, Feb. 1999,
pp. 349354.
31) Distribution Feeder Reliability Studies, W. H. Kersting, W. H. Phillips, R. C. Doyle, IEEE Transactions
on Industry Applications, Vol. 35, no. 2, MarchApril
1999, pp. 319323.
32) A Basic Framework for Sub-Transmission System
Health Analysis, R. Gupta, L. Goel, Electric Power
Systems Research, Vol. 49, no. 3, April 1999,
pp. 195200.
33) Probabilistic Steady-State Power System Security Indices, J. Naham, I. Skokljev, International Journal of
Electrical Power and Energy System, Vol. 21, no. 7,
Oct. 1999, pp. 515522.
34) Reliability Evaluation of Substation Control Systems, L. R. C. Ferreira, P. A. Crossley, J. Goody,
R. N. Allan, IEE Proceedings Generation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 6, Nov. 1999,
pp. 626632.
35) Models for Probabilistic Power Transmission System
Reliability Calculation, B. Bak-Jensen, J. Bech,
C. G. Bjerregaard, P. R. Jensen, IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 3, 1999, pp. 11661171.
36) Comprehensive Reliability Assessment of Substation
Originated Outages Using the Monte Carlo Simulation
Technique, L. Goel, S. Ren, Electric Power Systems
Research, Vol. 52, no. 2, 1999, pp. 151159.
37) Predictive Analysis Ranks Reliability Improvements,
C. A. McCarthy, H. Liu, IEEE Computer Applications
in Power, Vol. 12, No. 4, 1999, pp. 3540.
38) Deregulated Power System Planning Using a
Reliability Network Equivalent Technique, R.
Billinton, P. Wang, IEE Proceedings Generation,
Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 1, 1999,
pp. 2530.
39) Teaching Distribution System Reliability Evaluation
Using Monte Carlo Simulation, R. Billinton, P. Wang,
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 2,
1999, pp. 397403.
40) Quantitative Reliability Analysis of Distribution Systems: Automation, D. M. Rigler, W. R. Hodgkins, R. N.
Allan, Power Engineering Journal, Vol. 13, no. 4, 1999,
pp. 201204.
41) Reliability Impacts of Subtransmission and Radial
Configurations on the Distribution System, R. Gupta,
L. Goel, Electric Machines and Power Systems, Vol. 27,
no. 7, 1999, pp. 721736.
42) A Comparison of Distribution System Reliability Indices for Different Operating Configurations, L. Goel,
Electric Machines and Power Systems, Vol. 27, no. 9,
1999, pp. 10291039.

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VII. EQUIPMENT OUTAGE DATA

1) Transmission Equipment Reliability Data From
Canadian Electrical Association, D. O. Koval, IEEE
Transactions on Industry Applications, Vol. 32, no. 6,
Nov.Dec. 1996, pp. 14311439.
2) Generalized Outage Table Approach to Reliability Study
of Power Stations Bus Schemes, Wang, Xi-Fan, Wang,
Xiu-Li, IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 12,
no. 4, Oct. 1997, pp. 14801485.
3) Distribution System Reliability: Default Data and Model
Validation, R. E. Brown, J. R. Ochoa, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, No. 2, May 1998,
pp. 704709.
VIII. RELIABILITY COST/WORTH ANALYSIS
1) Effective Techniques for Reliability Worth Assessment
in Composite Power System Networks Using Monte
Carlo Simulation, A. Sankarakrishnan, R. Billinton,
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 11, no. 3,
Aug. 1996, pp. 12551261.
2) Factors Affecting Customer Outage Costs due to Electric Service Interruptions, K. K. Kariuki, R. N. Allan,
IEE Proceedings Generation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 143, no. 6, Nov. 1996, pp. 521528.
3) Impacts of Pertinent Factors on Reliability Worth
Indices in an Electric Power System, L. Goel, R.
Billinton, Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 41,
no. 2, May 1997, pp. 151158.
4) Balancing Cost and Reliability: A Quantitative Study
at Atlantic Electric, V. Udo, S. K. Agarwal, A. Vojdani,
M. I. Harlacher, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
Vol. 12, no. 3, Aug. 1997, pp. 11031111.
5) Model for Security of Service Costing in Electric
Transmission Systems, O. Moya, IEE Proceedings
Generation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 144,
no. 6, Nov. 1997, pp. 521524.
6) Power Interruption Costs to Industrial and Commercial
Consumers of Electricity, M. J. Sullivan, T. Vardell, M.
Johnson, IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications,
Vol. 33, no. 6, Nov.Dec. 1997, pp. 14481457.
7) CostBenefit Analysis of Generation Additions in
System Planning, S. Jonnavithula, R. Billinton, IEE
Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 145, no. 3, May 1998, pp. 288292.
8) Distribution System Reliability Cost/Worth Analysis Using Analytical and Sequential Simulation
Techniques, R. Billinton, P. Wang, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, no. 4, Nov. 1998,
pp. 12451250.
9) Evaluation of the Marginal Outage Costs in Generating
Systems Using Quantitative Power System Reliability
Techniques, R. F. Ghajar, Quality and Reliability Engineering International, Vol. 14, no. 3, 1998, pp. 129136.
10) Reliability and Interruption Cost Prediction Using
Time-Dependent Failure Rates and Interruption Costs,
G. H. Kjlle, A. T. Holen, Quality and Reliability Engineering International, Vol. 14, no. 3, 1998, pp. 159165.

11) Customer Interruption Cost Assessment: An International Perspective, R. Billinton, M. Pandey, IEEE
Power Engineering Review, Jan. 1999, pp. 6566.
12) Reliability Worth Assessment in a Developing
CountryResidential Survey Results, R. Billinton, M.
Pandey, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14,
no. 4, Feb. 1999, pp. 12261231.
13) Reliability Worth Assessment in a Developing
CountryCommercial and Industrial Survey Results,
M. Pandey, R. Billinton, IEEE Transactions on Power
Systems, Vol. 14, no. 4, Feb. 1999, pp. 12321238.
14) Electric Service Reliability Worth Evaluation for Government, Institutions and Office Buildings, J. Gates, R.
Billinton, G. Wacker, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 1, Feb. 1999, pp. 4350.
15) Value-Based Power System Reliability Planning, A.
A. Chowdhury, D. O. Koval, IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications, Vol. 35, no. 2, MarchApril 1999,
pp. 305311.
16) Reliability Worth of Distribution System Network
Reinforcement Considering Dispersed Customer Cost
Data, R. Billinton, P. Wang, IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 3,
1999, pp. 318324.
17) Reliability Worth Assessment in Radial Distribution Systems Using the Monte Carlo Simulation
Technique, L. Goel, Y. Ou, Electric Power Systems
Research, Vol. 51, no. 1, 1999, pp. 4353.
18) Monte Carlo Simulation-Based Customer Service Reliability Assessment, L. Goel, X. Liang, Y. Ou, Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 49, no. 3, April 1999,
pp. 185194.
19) Time Sequential Distribution System Reliability Worth
Analysis Considering Time Varying Load and Cost
Models, P. Wang, R. Billinton, IEEE Transactions on
Power Delivery, Vol. 14, no. 3, 1999, pp. 10461051.
20) Reliability Worth Assessments of Electrical Distribution Networks, R. N. Allan, K. K. Kariuki, Quality
and Reliability Engineering International, Vol. 15, no. 2,
1999, pp. 7985.

IX. GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS

1) Calculating the Frequency of Power System Failure
Including Common-Cause Failure, A. R. Abdelaziz,
Electric Machines and Power Systems, Vol. 24, no. 5,
1996, pp. 533540.
2) Time-Series Models for Reliability Evaluation of
Power Systems Including Wind Energy, R. Billinton,
H. Chen, R. Ghajar, Microelectronics and Reliability,
Vol. 36, no. 9, Sept. 1996, pp. 12531261.
3) A Test System for Teaching Overall Power System
Reliability Assessment, R. Billinton, S. Jonnavithula,
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 11, no. 4,
Nov. 1996, pp. 16701676.
4) Power System Structure Optimization Subject to
Reliability Constraints, A. Lisnianski, G. Levitin,

BILLINTON et al.: BIBLIOGRAPHY ON THE APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY METHODS IN POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY EVALUATION 19961999

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H. Ben-Haim, D. Elmakis, Electric Power Systems

Research, Vol. 39, no. 2, Nov. 1996, pp. 145152.
Impact of Supply Restoration Procedures on the Reliability Performance of Power Distribution Systems, E.
N. Dialynas, D. G. Michos, Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 39, no. 2, 1996, pp. 111121.
Choosing From Redundant Designs of Power Systems
Using System Outage Rate and Cost, C. R. Vallarino,
K. J. Elsey, Microelectronics Reliability, Vol. 36, no. 5,
1996, pp. 12691274.
Power System Reliability Evaluation Using Fuzzy
Logic and Neural Networks, S. A. Khaparde, K.
Bhattacharyya, International Journal of Engineering
Intelligent Systems for Electrical Engineering and
Communications, Vol. 4, no. 4, Dec. 1996, pp. 197206.
Power System Reliability Using Network Decomposition, Electric Machines and Power Systems, A. R. Abdelaziz, Vol. 25, no. 4, 1997, pp. 411418.
Improved Reliability Model for Redundant Protective
SystemsMarkov Models, P. M. Anderson, G. M.
Chintaluri, S. M. Magbuhat, R. F. Ghajar, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, no. 2, May 1997,
pp. 573578.
Well-being Analysis for HVDC Transmission Systems, R. Billinton, S. Aboreshaid, M.
Fotuhi-Firuzabad, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, no. 2, May 1997, pp. 913918.
Reliability Issues in Todays Electric Power Utility Environment, R. Billinton, L. Salvaderi, L., J. D. McCalley, H. Chao, TH. Seitz, R. N. Allan, J. Odom, C.
Fallon, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12,
No. 4, Nov. 1997, pp. 17081714.
Application of the State Transition Sampling Technique to System Reliability Evaluation, R. Billinton,
A. Jonnavithula, Quality and Reliability Engineering
International, Vol. 13, no. 5, 1997, pp. 311315.
Diagnosing the Health of Engineering Systems, R.
Billinton, S. Aboreshaid, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Quality
and Reliability Engineering International, Vol. 13, no. 5,
1997, pp. 317323.
Weaknesses of the Conventional Three-State Model in
Station-Oriented Reliability Evaluation, R. Billinton,
H. Chen, Microelectronics Reliability, Vol. 37, no. 12,
1997, pp. 17991804.
Power System Security Assessment: A Position
Paper, Task Force 38.03.12, CIGRE, Electra, no. 175,
Dec. 1997, pp. 4978.
Power System Reliability Assessment Suitable for a
Deregulated System via the Method of Cumulants, L.
A. Sanabria, T. S. Dillon, International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy System Vol. 20, no. 3, March.
1998, pp. 203211.
Sequential Probabilistic Methods for Power System
Operation and Planning, J. V. Hecke et al., Electra,
CIGRE, Task Force 13 of Advisory Group 38.03,
no. 179, Aug. 1998, pp. 6999.
Comparative Study of Continuous Distribution Models
for Power System Reliability Evaluation, J. O. Kim, C.

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Singh, IEE Proceedings Generation, Transmission and

Distribution, Vol. 145, no. 5, Sept. 1998, pp. 566572.
A Proposal of a Supporting Expert System for Outage
Planning of Electric Power Facilities Retaining High
Power Supply Reliability: Part IOutline of a Supporting System and Outage Work Allocation Based on
Indices, K. Kawahara, H. Sasaki, J. Kubokawa, H.
Asahara, K. Sugiyama, IEEE Transactions on Power
Systems, Vol. 13, no. 4, Nov. 1998, pp. 14531458.
A Proposal of a Supporting Expert System for
Outage Planning of Electric Power Facilities Retaining
High Power Supply Reliability: Part IIKnowledge
Processing and Simulation Results, K. Kawahara,
H. Sasaki, J. Kubokawa, H. Asahara, K. Sugiyama,
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, no. 4,
Nov. 1998, pp. 14591465.
Wind Speed Simulation in Wind Farms for
Steady-State Security Assessment of Electrical Power
Systems, A. E. Feijoo, J. Cidras, J. L. G. Dornelas,
IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, Vol. 14,
no. 4, 1999, pp. 15821587.
The IEEE Reliability Test System1996, C. Grigg,
P. Wang, P. Albrecht, R. N. Allan, M. Bhavaraju, R.
Billinton, et al., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
Vol. 14, no. 3, 1999, pp. 10101018.
Power System Reliability Enhancement Using a
Thyristor Controlled Series Capacitor, R. Billinton, M.
Fotuhi-Firuzabad, S. O. Faried, IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 1, Feb. 1999, pp. 369374.
Evaluation of Power Systems Reliability by an
Artificial Neural Network, N. Amjady, M. Ehsan,
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 1,
Feb. 1999, pp. 287292.
A Fuzzy-Based Power System Reliability Evaluation,
A. R. Abdelaziz, Electric Machines and Power Systems,
Vol. 27, no. 3, 1999, pp. 271278.
Reliability of Special Protection Systems, J. D. McCalley, W. Fu, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
Vol. 14, no. 4, Feb. 1999, pp. 14001406.
MicroturbineAn Economic and Reliability Evaluation for Commercial, Residential, and Remote Load Application, M. W. Davis, A. H. Gifford, T. J. Krupa,
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, No. 4,
Feb. 1999, pp. 15561562.
Impact of Cogenerated Energy on a Power System,
R. Gupta, N. Chowdhury, R. Billinton, Journal of Institute of Engineers Singapore, Vol. 38, no. 6, July 1999,
pp. 4347.
Probabilistic Performance Assessment of Autonomous
Solar-Wind Energy Conversion Systems, S. H. Karaki,
R. B. Chedid, R. Ramadan, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, Vol. 14, no. 3, Sept. 1999, pp. 766772.

X. CONCLUSION
In compiling any bibliography of related publications, it is not
possible to make it absolutely complete. The authors would like

602

to apologize for any errors or omissions and hope that additional

references will be advanced as discussion to this publication.

Roy Billinton (F78) came to Canada from England in 1952. Received the
B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees from the University of Manitoba and the Ph.D. and
D.Sc. degrees from the University of Saskatchewan. Worked for Manitoba
Hydro in the System Planning and Production Divisions. Joined the University
of Saskatchewan in 1964. Formerly Head of the Electrical Engineering Department. Presently, C. J. Mackenzie Professor of Engineering and Associate Dean,
Graduate Studies, Research and Extension of the College of Engineering.
Author of papers on Power System Analysis, Stability, Economic System Operation and Reliability. Author or co-author of eight books on reliability. Fellow
of the IEEE, the EIC and the Royal Society of Canada and a Professional Engineer in the Province of Saskatchewan.

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 16, NO. 4, NOVEMBER 2001

Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad (SM99) was born in Iran. Received the B.Sc.

(Hons.) and M.Sc. degrees in electrical engineering from Sharif University of
Technology and Tehran University, Tehran, Iran, in 1986 and 1989, respectively,
and the M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees in electrical engineering from the University of
Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada, where he is presently a Post-doctoral Fellow.
His area of research interest is power system reliability evaluation.

Lina Bertling is a Ph.D. student at the Department of Electrical Power Systems at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), in Sweden. She received the
M.Sc. degree in 1997 in system engineering from the KTH. Her research area is
reliability evaluation of electrical distribution systems with focus on reliability
centered maintenance. The project is sponsored by the Competence Center of
Electrical Power System at KTH.