Effect of Land Use Changes on Low Flow in Ciliwung River

Waluyo Hatmoko1
1

Research Centre for Water Resources,

Ministry of Public Works
Bandung 40135
INDONESIA
E-mail: whatmoko@yahoo.com

Abstract: Low flow in the dry season is important in water resources management. This paper
analyzed the low flow in Ciliwung River at Katulampa based on daily and half-monthly hydrograph;
hydrograph of annual 7-day minimum; seasonal variation within a year; flow duration curve; and
rainfall-runoff modeling. All of these graphical methods showed decreasing trend of low flow over time.
Although the decrease of forest area is in line with the decreasing of the low flow, under constrains of
limited available data and quality of the data, this paper cannot identify a regression formula to predict
the effect of land use change to low flow. Rainfall-runoff modeling has produced set of parameters for
forested land, urbanized land, and urbanized reforestation land scenarios.
Keywords: low flow, land use change, hydrology, river discharges

1. INTRODUCTION
1.1.

Background

Low flow in the dry season is important information in water resources management, especially for
water allocation in the dry season. Indonesian water law mandated that every river basin territory
should have a water resources strategic plan and master plan. Master plan should be based on the
scenario of water availability at present and in the next 20 years. It is identified that the water
availability in the dry season is having decreasing trends from time to time due to the change of land
use in the upper catchments, especially the change from rural to urban area and its related decrease
in vegetative cover.
The effect of changes in land use on hydrological characteristics of low discharges have been widely
assumed to imply that decreasing vegetative cover would result in lower base flow during dry season.
However, no well documented data have been collected to confirm these assumptions, and
information that correlates the land use change and the changing of hydrological properties is still
based on hypotheses.

Problem formulation
This paper identifies the change of low flow in Ciliwung River at Katulampa gauging station, and
correlates the identified trend with the changing of land use.

Hypothesis
The hypothesis is that the decrease in vegetative land cover in the upper catchment area would result
decreasing of low flow in the related river gauging station.

LITERATURE REVIEW
Low flow
The uses of low flow according to WMO (2009) are: 1) water resources planning and management; 2)
operation of water resources system; and 3) low flow prediction for the decision making of future water
resources operation. Practice of low flow computation in various countries reported by Chen et al
(2006) mentioning that the 7-day 10-year low-flow (7Q10) is commonly applied to represent low flow
in the United States and United Kingdom, because it eliminate the daily discharge variation. On the
other hand, Laaha and Blschl (2007) compute the low flow in Austria as dependable flow 95%,
equipped with lower and upper confidence limit 95%.

Effect of land use changes to low flow

Unlike the effect of land use changes to flooding, which is supported by many evidences, the effect on
low flow is rather limited. Theoretically Calder (2002) explained that there are three mechanism the
effects of forest to low flow: 1) increase transpiration by forest would increase the soil moisture deficit,
and decrease low flow in the dry season; 2) Increase infiltration would increase groundwater recharge,
and would add more low flow discharges; 3) Forest can trap the cloud that would increase the low flow
in the dry season. The resulting effect of forest can increase but also can decrease low flow in the dry
season.
Verbist et al (2006) reported that in Way Besai River in Lampung Province, there is a decreasing low
flow in the dry season after the conversion of forest into coffee plantation. However this phenomenon
is coincides with rising intensity of El Nino. Some cases of reforestation that decrease low flow was
reported by Calder (2002) by showing the fact that in South Africa the reforestation from grassland into
eucalyptus has decrease the annual runoff by 440 mm, and low flow in the dry season by 15 mm. In
Figure 1 Bruijnzeel (2004) give example of deforestation decreases low flow in Selorejo River in East
Java while in the other hand at Tanzania the conversion from forest into agricultural land increase low
flow.

Figure 1 Low flow decreasing in Selorejo, East Java (Bruijnzeel, 2004)

METHODOLOGY
The framework for the analysis is presented in Figure 2. There are two groups of factors determining
the river flow: climate factor, consisting of rainfall and evapo-transpiration; and the condition of the
catchment, which van be divided into the subsurface condition as geology and the land use and land
cover. By assuming that no geological change has happened, and no change in evapo-transpiration
rate, then under the homogeneous condition of rainfall, the runoff should be homogeneous too. The
methodology applied in this paper to analyze the low flow changes is by graphical presentation, and

the rainfall-runoff modeling method.

Figure 2 Framework for the analysis

Graphical analysis
To detect change in low flow, simple graphical methods are applied as follows: 1) Hydrograph plot of
daily discharge time-series; 2) seasonal mean flow within a year, as used by Bruijnzeel (2004); 3) Flow
duration curve to differentiate the change of dependable flow; and 4) Time-series plot of annual 7-day
minimum as applied by USGS (1997) and Chen et al (2006). This method is valid under the
assumption of there is no change in rainfall pattern. To verify that no change in rainfall, a time series
and moving average graph of the rainfall is presented, and a homogeneity test is carried out.

Rainfall-runoff method
Another way to eliminate the rainfall effect is by using a rainfall-runoff model calibrated for one period,
and verified in the other period. If the verification phase is not fit, then the difference is caused by the
land use change.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Study location and land use change
Ciliwung River is flowing through West Java Province and Jakarta Special Province. Katulampa river
gauging station is situated at the upper part of Ciliwung River, having catchment area of 150 km 2. An
automatic rainfall station Citeko is situated in the catchment area of Katulampa River Gauging Station.
Daily river discharges and daily rainfall data from the year of 1990 2006 are obtained from Research
Center for Water Resources. Rating curve of the river discharges is based on the work of Ogink (2007)
and Ogink (2008).
The land use change of forest and urban area in the upper Katulampa river gauging station is from
satellite image interpretation by Institutional Strengthening for IWRM in the 6 Ci's River Basin Territory
(package B) Project, for the year of 2000, 2003, 2007 and 2009 as shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3 Location of Katulampa river gauging station and the land use change in its catchment
area

Graphical analysis
From the hydrograph of the daily discharge of Ciliwung River at Katulampa presented in Figure 4, it is
identified that there is a decreasing trend of low flow in the period of 1990-1996; a relatively stable low
flow in 1997-2002; and little increasing pattern from 2003-2006. These low flow trends are becoming
more visible in half-monthly hydrograph with moving average as shown in Figure 5. On the other hand
the time-series of half monthly rainfall and its moving average presented in Figure 6 does not indicate
any trend. This fact suggest that the change of low flow is the effect of land use and land cover
change.

Figure 4 Hydrograph of daily discharge of Ciliwung River at Katulampa

52
50
48
46
44
42
40

Discharge generated [m3/s]

38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
08-12-1990

08-12-1991

07-12-1992

07-12-1993

07-12-1994

07-12-1995

06-12-1996

06-12-1997

06-12-1998

06-12-1999

05-12-2000

05-12-2001

05-12-2002

05-12-2003

04-12-2004

04-12-2005

04-12-2006

Time
Katulampa QG

Katulampa Moving Average

Figure 5 Hydrograph and moving average of half-monthly discharge of Ciliwung River at

Katulampa

700
650
600
550

Rainfall historical [mm]

500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
08-12-1990

08-12-1991

07-12-1992

07-12-1993

07-12-1994

07-12-1995

06-12-1996

06-12-1997

06-12-1998

06-12-1999

05-12-2000

05-12-2001

05-12-2002

05-12-2003

04-12-2004

04-12-2005

04-12-2006

Time
Citeko PH

Citeko Moving Average

Figure 6 Time-series of half-monthly rainfall at Citeko with moving average

The seasonal variation within a year in Figure 7 support the hypothesis that the first period of 19901996 is having higher low flow than period 1997-2002 and 2003-2006. This fact is also valid that the
dependable flow during period of 1990-1996 is higher than the other two periods, as shown in flow
duration curve in Figure 7.
Time-series of annual 7-day minimum flow presented at Figure 8 shows a decreasing trend. This fact
is supported by the Boxplot of the annual 7-day minimum flow in the 3 periods of time. The period of
1990-1996 has higher upper, lower and median than the other 2 periods. While the last period of 20032006 has the same lower with middle period, but higher median and upper value. This increase of low
flow might come from reforestation effort by Ministry of Forestry.

Figure 7 Seasonal variation and flow duration curve of half-monthly discharge for the 3 periods

Figure 8 Boxplot of the 3 periods and time-series of annual 7-day minimum flow

Rainfall-runoff simulation approach

To eliminate the effect of rainfall variation, a NRECA rainfall-runoff model is applied (Crawford, 1981).
Figure 9 show the result of calibration for the period of 1990-1996, give fit for this period as well as
period of 2003-2006, and over estimate for the period of 1997-2002. This means that in the period of
1997-2002, parameter of the model related to land use and land cover has changed. This set of
changed parameter that fit in this period as shown in Figure 10 can be used for the scenario of
decreasing forest and increasing urban area. As a logical consequence this set of urban parameter
would give under estimate for forest land cover condition.

Figure 9 Calibration of NRECA rainfall-runoff model for the year of 1990-1996

Figure 10 Calibration of NRECA rainfall-runoff model for the year of 1997-2002

Table 1 Parameter for NRECA rainfall-runoff model
Parameter
1990-1996
1997-2002
2003-2006
PSUB
0,52
0,65
0,90
GWF
0,10
0,27
0,35
Absolute mean error
3,66
4,01
2,83

Relation between land use change and low flow

Plot of decreasing forest area, increasing urban area, and annual 7-day minimum flow is presented in
Figure 11. In general the trend of decreasing forest is in line with decreasing low flow, and opposite
direction with increasing urban area. However no regression formula can be utilized to predict the
effect of land use change to low flow.

Figure 11 Annual 7-day minimum low flows and the land use change

CONCLUSIONS
Low flow in Ciliwung River at Katulampa gauging station has been analyzed, based on graphical
presentation using 1) daily and half-monthly hydrograph; 2) hydrograph of annual 7-day minimum; 3)
seasonal variation within a year; and 4) flow duration curve. All of these graphs are showing
decreasing low flow, in line with the decrease of forest area. There are three distinct period: year of
1990-1996 with plenty of forest area and high low flow; period of 1997-2002 with decreasing forest
area and decreasing low flow; and the period of 2003-2006 with relatively a little better low flow than
the previous period.
Although the decrease of forest is in line with decreasing the low flow, under constrains of limited
available data and quality of the data, this paper cannot identify a regression formula to predict the
effect of land use change to low flow. Rainfall-runoff modeling has produced three set of parameters
for forested land, urbanized land, and urbanized reforestation land. These sets of parameter after
compared with the model parameter from other river basin can be used to predict the water availability
under different land use and land cover scenarios.

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3.
Chen, Yongqin David, Huang, Guoru , Shao, Quanxi and Xu, Chong-Yu (2006). Regional
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Crawford, Norman H., and Steven M. Thurin. 1981. Hydrologic estimates for small hydroelectric
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Laaha, Gregor, and Gnter Blschl (2007). A national low flow estimation procedure for Austria.
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