MATHEMATICS UNIT PLANNER

Topic: Probability

Maths Focus: Assessing

Likelihood

Key Mathematical Understandings being constructed:

Students will assess likelihood and assign probabilities using
experimental and theoretical approaches

Year Level: 4

Term: 3 Week: 9

Date: 14/09/2015

Key Focus / Standard:

Students will be able to develop an increasingly sophisticated understanding of
mathematical concepts and fluency with processes, and be able to pose and
solve problems and reason in the field of Statistics and Probability.

They develop an increasingly sophisticated ability to critically

evaluate chance and data concepts and make reasoned judgments
and decisions.

Content strand(s): Statistics & Probability

Students will describe probability as likely, unlikely, impossible, or

certain.

Proficiency strand(s): Understanding, Fluency, Problem Solving, Reasoning

Key skills to develop & practice:

Compare and contrast the likelihood of a range of probability events.

Equipment/Resources required:
Uni-fix Blocks
Cards
Dice
Spinners
Coins (not real ones!)
Butchers paper
Box
Links to other contexts:

Define events according to likelihood, using appropriate vocabulary.

Model and describe likelihood using a range of resources and
representations.

strategies:Learning

Teaching strategies:
Analysing
Checking
Classifying
Co-operating
Considering options
Designing
Elaborating

Estimating
Explaining
Generalising
Hypothesising
Inferring
Interpreting
Justifying

Listening
Locating information
Making choices
Note taking
Observing
Ordering events
Organising

Sub-strand(s): Chance

Performing
Persuading
Planning
Predicting
Presenting
Providing feedback
Questioning

Reading
Recognising bias
Reflecting
Reporting
Responding
Restating
Revising

Vocabulary to develop:
Probability
Outcomes
Likely
Impossible

Seeing patterns
Selecting information
Self-assessing
Sharing ideas
Summarising
Synthesising

Likelihood
Equally likely
Unlikely
Certain

Testing
Viewing
Visually representing
Working independently
Working to a timetable

MATHEMATICAL
OBJECTIVE
(what you want the children to
come to understand or
appreciate)

TUNING IN
(explore what students know
using a context /dilemma, posing
a problem, an open-ended
question, or game.)

INDEPENDENT
LEARNING
(extended opportunity for
students to work in pairs, small
groups or individually. Time for
teacher to rove, listen, probe and
challenge childrens thinking.)

REFLECTION AND
MAKING CONNECTIONS
(focused planned time for students to reflect
on learning by explaining, showing,
justifying their thinking; teacher questions
gather evidence for general finding, assists
children to make link/s, raises possibilities
for further thinking /investigation)

ADAPTATIONS DURING LESSON

- Enabling prompt
(to allow those experiencing difficulty to
engage in active experiences related to
the initial goal task)
- Extending prompt
(questions that extend students thinking
on the initial task)

ASSESSMENT
STRATEGIES
(should relate to objective.
Includes what the teacher will
listen for, observe, note or analyse)

Session 1
Using language of
probability:
assessing likelihood.

Whole Class:
Blocks in a box:
Teacher holds box with
8 cubes inside: Begin
(one of each) yellow,

In pairs:
Students repeat the
activity with 8 blocks
of their own. They
record their results in

Whole Class:
Create a probability dictionary
on butchers paper; students
draw their results to show
likelihood.

What would happen if we

have more, or less, blocks?
What if the blocks were all
the same colour?
What if there was only one

Anecdotal notes: taken

as teacher observes the
students, noting
language used to
describe events.

Session 2:

Session 3:
Using online and
given games to
determine and
allocate probability.

orange, red, brown,

black, blue, green,
white. Show students
cubes and discuss
probability of each
being drawn out of
box. Being randomly
selecting cubes, record
results on board.
Discuss chances of
drawing out a specific
cube. Change number
of cubes and repeat.
Whole Class:
Play Likely or
unlikely (Van De
Walle et al. 2008)
Create a two column
table on the board, one
labelled possible the
other impossible.
Read A Particular
Cow (Mem Fox,
2008). Classify
sentences from book
under the two
characteristics on
board.
Whole Class:
Play Probability Fair
at
http://mrnussbaum.com
/probfair-play/
Discuss the probability
of the different events.

way of their choosing.

They also record the
language that they use
to describe these
events.

Example:
BBBBBBBR LIKELY to get
blue
YYGGYYYY- UNLIKELY to
get green
BYGRBRRY IMPOSSIBLE
to get orange.

of a different colour?
then what would the
likelihood/chance be?

Use table to compare the

different probabilities of the
different events, determine
why the events dont all have
an equal chance of occurring.
(See Appendix 1)

Have students work on

different events with
different difficulties, if a
student finishes quickly have
them determine an event
with a different difficulty.
Students who need extra
support can work out 50:50
with a coin; teacher can
focus on this group. Students
who excel can work out the
chance of drawing a
particular suit, colour, or
specific card from a deck of
cards (either with or without
jokers).

Small Groups:

Think-Pair-Share:
(Students start
individually and pair
up to discuss results).
Students look at the
probability of a range
of events. Example:
Rolling an even
number on a die,
pulling a red card out
of a deck of cards (with
no jokers). Students
can select their task.
Once completed
students work in pairs
to discuss what they
found.

Work Samples:
Collect students tables
comparing probability.
Determine how they
worked out their own
probability and whether
they checked their
friends problem
solving.
Were they correct?
Why?
Did they check their
answers?
How?

APPENDIX 1 - Table of Probability:

Task:
Creator and
language
used

What
event?

Teacher:

Drawing a
spade from
a deck of
cards

Equal chance
(of drawing
each suit.
It is
moderately
likely to
draw a spade.

Mine:

Friend 1:

Friend 2:

Sketch/ Representation:

s
s
c
c
d
d
h
h

s
s
c
c
d
d
h
h

s
s
c
c
d
d
h
h

s
s
c
c
d
d
h

s
s
c
c
d
h
h

s
s
c
d
d
h
h

s
c
c
d
d
h
h

Working:

Probability:

52 cards
13 are
spades
52 / 13 = 4
1 in every 4
cards is a
spade.

1:3
Or
1/4
Or
25%

References:
Fox, M & Denton, T. (2008). A Particular Cow. Melbourne: Penguin Group Australia.

Macgraw-Hill Education. (2008). Teaching Today: Teaching Tips, Lesson Plans and More.
Retrieved September 5, 2012 from:
http://teachingtoday.glencoe.com/lessonplans/probability-predictingoutcomes-and-likelihood

Mr Nussbaum. (2006). The Probability Fair [Game]. Retrieved September 5, 2012 from
http://mrnussbaum.com/probfair-play/

Van de Walle, J., Karp. S., & Bay-Williams, J. M. (2010). Elementary and middle school
mathematics: Teaching developmentally (7th ed.). Boston, MA: Allyn & Bacon.