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AbstractWe propose a framework for the detection of dangerous vehicle cornering events, based on statistics related to the
no-sliding and no-rollover conditions. The input variables are
estimated using an unscented Kalman filter applied to global navigation satellite system (GNSS) measurements of position, speed,
and bearing. The resulting test statistic is evaluated in a field
study where three smartphones are used as measurement probes.
A general framework for performance evaluation and estimator
calibration is presented as depending on a generic loss function.
Furthermore, we introduce loss functions designed for applications aiming to either minimize the number of missed detections
and false alarms, or to estimate the risk level in each cornering
event. Finally, the performance characteristics of the estimator
are presented as depending on the detection threshold, as well
as on design parameters describing the driving behavior. Since
the estimation only uses GNSS measurements, the framework is
particularly well suited for smartphone-based insurance telematics applications, aiming to avoid the logistic and monetary costs
associated with, e.g., on-board-diagnostics or black-box dependent
solutions. The design of the estimation algorithm allows for instant
feedback to be given to the driver and, hence, supports the inclusion of real-time value-added services in usage-based insurance
programs.
Index TermsUBI, insurance telematics, GNSS, vehicle lateral
forces, unscented Kalman filtering.
I. I NTRODUCTION
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2
F
Ff Ff, max =
(1)
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WAHLSTRM et al.: DETECTION OF DANGEROUS CORNERING IN GNSS-DATA-DRIVEN INSURANCE TELEMATICS
TABLE I
T YPICAL VALUES OF THE T IRE F RICTION C OEFFICIENT [35]
the innermost wheels will have left the ground, and the normal
force only operates on the outer wheels. The force has an
associated lever arm of /2 (where is the track width of the
car), giving a torque of mg /2. Including also the contribution
from the radial force and denoting the height above ground of G
by h, the total moment around G at time tn can in equilibrium
be written as
mg mvn n h = 0
2
(4)
which says that the force of friction can never exceed , the
coefficient of friction, multiplied by the normal force F , exchanged between the tires and the road surface. The coefficient
of friction is uniquely determined by the vehicles speed, the
properties of the tires, and the road surface. The normal force
will be equal to the force of gravity on the car, i.e., F = mg,
where m denotes the mass of the car, and g is the gravitational
acceleration at the surface of the earth.
Assuming that the car at time tn travels with speed vn and
longitudinal acceleration an , in a perfect circle with radius
vn /n , the horizontal force Fh on the tires, can be divided
into two parts (see Fig. 2). The first is the centripetal force,
equal to mvn n and directed towards the center of the circle.
The second is the tangential force man , directed along the line
tangent to the circle at the position of the vehicle at time tn .
Since these two forces are perpendicular, and since we must
have Ff = Fh if we are to avoid slipping, the friction equation
can be rewritten as
T (vn , an , n )
where the force ratio Fh /F is denoted by
1 2 2
T (v, a, ) =
Fh /F =
v + a2 .
g
(2)
(3)
.
2h
(5)
T (v, a, ) SL
and
T (v, 0, ) RO
(6)
vn|n , a
n|n ,
n|n ).
test statistic Tn = T (
When there is no currently ongoing estimated cornering
event for some given detection threshold SL , the start of an
event is defined to be the first time tns for which Tns > SL .
Similarly, the end of an event starting at tns is defined as the
time tne , where ne is the largest integer such that Tne > SL ,
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4
Ttmax
=
max{Tn : tns tn tne }
ns :tne
(7)
where {tn }N
n=1 are the sampling instances of the smartphone.
, will be approximated
The true risk level, denoted by Tmax
ms :me
by the risk level resulting from applying the analogous definition to the test statistic provided by the reference system.
III. F ILTERING OF GNSS M EASUREMENTS
This section will describe the method of estimating the input
variables required for the calculation of Tn . The estimation of
the input variables is carried out using a Kalman filter, which
renders a recursive estimation algorithm. Standard deviations
2
, where the associated stochastic variable
are denoted by ()
is identified by the subscript. The identity and zero matrix of
size k k are denoted by Ik and 0k , respectively, while 0k1 ,k2
denotes the zero matrix of size k1 k2 .
A. State-Space Model
We begin by presenting the state-space model from which the
filtering algorithm is derived. Denoting the vehicles position
and bearing by p(t) = [p(1) (t) p(2) (t)] and (t), respectively, the vehicle dynamics are modeled by
x c (t) = fc (xc (t)) + q(t)
(11)
pn pn1 .
pn =
(12)
(13)
t
(1)
n+1
v(t)
cos
((t))
dt
pn
(2)
ttnn+1
pn
tn v(t) sin ((t)) dt
vn
v + (ev tn 1)/ a
v n
an
ev tn an
t
n
n + (e
1)/
xn = n , f (xn ) =
t
n
w(1)
pn
(2)
wp
(1)
(1)
wp
wpn
n1
(2)
(2)
wpn1
wpn
(14)
(8)
where
p(1) (t)
v(t) cos ((t))
p(2) (t)
v(t) sin ((t))
a(t)
v(t)
xc (t) =
, and fc (xc (t)) = v a(t) , (9)
a(t)
(t)
(t)
(t)
(t)
(10)
Q=
diag 0 0 0 q2v 0 q2 ,
() denotes the Dirac delta function, and diag() denotes the
matrix which has diagonal elements equal to the argument.
n = Hxn + wn
y
(15)
(1)
where y
vn
H(2)],
n = [(pn )
n ] , H = [H
I3
I2 I2
03,1 03,1 03,1
H(1) =
, and H(2) =
.
01,3 0
1
0
02
02
We will now study the measurement error covariance matrix.
For ease of notation, we collect the Doppler-based measure
n =
[
vn n ] . The
ments of speed and bearing in the vector do
exact process of calculating these measurements is typically unknown. However, given the methods presented in the literature
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WAHLSTRM et al.: DETECTION OF DANGEROUS CORNERING IN GNSS-DATA-DRIVEN INSURANCE TELEMATICS
where fdo (
vn ) =
[
fdo (vn )
(
vn vn )
vn
(16)
(
vn )2 + (
vn )2 arctan(
vn /
vn )] is
(1)
(2)
(1)
n ) 2
Cov(do
wv
fdo (vn )
vn
= w2 v
1
0
fdo (vn )
vn
(17)
w2 v /vn2
(18)
n = n
(19)
qn
and the propagated sigma points are given by
(0)
n|n
n|n =
(i)
()
n|n + [(Pn|n )1/2 ]:,i , i {1, . . . , 20}
n|n =
()
(i+20) =
n|n =
n|n
x
01,10
, and
()
Pn|n
(x)
Pn|n
=
010
010
.
GQn G
(21)
(c)
!
"!
"
(i)
(i)
n |n
n1 |n2 dn1 |n2 d
wi cn1 |n2 c
,
1 2
(22)
#
#2
!
"
#
#
(i)
(i)
proj xn+1|n+1 =
arg min #xproj xn+1|n+1 # 1
xproj
n|n
i=0
0
.
1/vn2
0 w2 v
Rn =
Cov(wn ) = diag
where
(2)
n|n
(20)
Pn|n
(23)
where x2M =
x Mx. Note that this ensures that
T (
xn+1|n+1 ) proj since T is convex. The projection
can be found by numerical means using gradient-based
methods. The choice of only applying the constraint to updated
sigma points has previously been motivated in [42] and
references therein.
The parameter proj describes the trade-off between, on the
one hand, minimizing the risk of incorrectly altering the estimates, and on the other hand, utilizing the implicit outlier
detector resulting from the use of (23). In the implementation,
we used proj = 0.9 which is a rather conservative choice given
that the detection threshold typically will be chosen far below
this value. In light of the limitations implied by Table I, a more
refined implementation, applied to driving under more varied
sets of circumstances than what is described in Section V,
would in all probability benefit from letting proj be dependent
on the vehicles speed or the weather.
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6
(i)
(i)
(i)
(i)
i=0
(i)
7:
yn+1|n = Hxn+1|n
$
(i)
n+1|n = 40
y
i=0 wi yn+1|n
8:
9:
6:
Fig. 4. An estimated event with duration (tns , tne ) can only be mapped to
a true event with duration (ms , me ) if tn (ms 5 [s], me + 5 [s])
for some tn (tns , tns ). The mapping between estimated and true events is
performed so as to bijectively map the largest possible number of events.
(y)
(xy)
(xy)
(y)
10:
Kn = Pn+1|n (Pn+1|n )
11:
xn+1|n+1 = xn+1|n + Kn (
yn+1 yn+1|n )
$40
(i)
n+1|n+1 = i=0 wi proj(xn+1|n+1 )
x
12:
(i)
(i)
(i)
(x)
14: Tn+1 =
T (
xn+1|n+1 )
15: end for
13:
All steps in Algorithm 1 referring to a sigma point i are looped over all sigma
points.
C. Filter Tuning
Assuming that the accuracy of the Doppler measurements is
fairly similar among different smartphone models, we will use
w2 v = (0.2 [m/s])2 [43]. Likewise, we set w2 p = (1.5 [m/s])2 .
(Note that this only corresponds to the proportion of the position errors which are temporally independent.) The decay
factors are typically hard to estimate from data, and will be
fixed at v = 0.5 [1/s] and = 0.1 [1/s]. Since cornering
events are characterized by relatively dynamic driving, this
should be reflected in the model parameters. While a small
value on v correspond to aggressive driving, v is limited
from below by the bandwidth of the modeled car dynamics
(which typically is less than 2 [Hz] [25]).
The process noise parameters qv and q are considered
to be design parameters and their influence on the estimator
is studied in the subsequent section. The appropriate value set
on the parameter qv , describing the smoothness of the ride in
terms of longitudinal acceleration, will be dependent on the
driver, the intended application, etc. Similarly, q will to a
large extent depend on the road type and the chosen speed.
We
2
0.8
[m/s
Hz]
will study values in the
intervals
0
<
qv
Tn (; 1 ; 2 )
R() =
E L
, {Tn (1 )}N
n=1
'
=
n=1
"
N
L {Tn }n=1 , {Tn }N
n=1 p1 ,2 (1 , 2 )d1 d2
!
(24)
where L is a loss function adjusted to the insurers preferences.
The pdf p1 ,2 (1 , 2 ) will in practice have to be estimated
from empirical data, and will inevitably be subject to design
choices related to driving behavior, road type, the chosen
smartphone, etc. Note that we have deliberately separated the
parameters in , describing the driving behavior, from 1 , to
emphasize that the true vehicle dynamics are not generated
from (8).
The performance evaluation in this article will be limited to studies of the estimator presented in Section III, in
terms of R(qv , q ). The Bayesian risk will be estimated by
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WAHLSTRM et al.: DETECTION OF DANGEROUS CORNERING IN GNSS-DATA-DRIVEN INSURANCE TELEMATICS
TABLE II
S UMMARY OF THE DATA U SED IN THE F IELD S TUDY
Fig. 5. The average length of time during which the test statistic exceeds SL .
where
p1 ,2 (1 , 2 ), i.e., by using that R() L(),
M
L()
=
1/M
% !
"&N
(j)
L Tn ; 1 ; 2
n=1
j=1
, {Tn (1 )}N
n=1
,
(25)
1
(26)
T
,
(27)
ms :me
ns :tne
max
T
LBIAS = E Ttmax
ms :me ,
ns :tne
(28)
rameters
fixed
at
qv
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8
TABLE III
M ISSED D ETECTIONS AND FALSE A LARMS
Fig. 6. Receiver
operating characteristics
of the detector with qv =
The performance of the estimator, as depending on the detection threshold, is further illustrated by the receiver operating
characteristics (ROC) displayed in Fig. 6. The ROC with SL =
0.5 is identical to the ROC with SL = 0.55 (the latter threshold
only results in one less true cornering event than the former).
Once again, the performance is seen to be comparable for
thresholds in the range of 0.5 SL 0.6, but then declines
as the threshold is increased. Note that, as opposed to all other
studies in this section which employs the same threshold for
estimated and true events, each curve in Fig. 6 is obtained by
fixing the threshold for the true events at SL , while varying the
threshold for the estimated events.
Now, consider Fig. 7(a), where the missed detections, averaged over the three smartphones, are displayed as a function
of the threshold. It can be seen that the number of missed
detections to some extent can be decreased by increasing the
value of q . (The parameter q determines the well-known
trade-off between dynamic response and noise resistance as-
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WAHLSTRM et al.: DETECTION OF DANGEROUS CORNERING IN GNSS-DATA-DRIVEN INSURANCE TELEMATICS
Fig. 7. Missed detections (a), false alarms (b), and the sum of missed detections and false alarms (c), divided by the total number of true cornering
events. Theprocess noise variance of the vehicle speed was set to qv =
0.4 [m/s2 Hz].
Fig. 8. Missed detections (a), false alarms (b), and the sum of missed detections and false alarms (c), divided by the total number of true cornering events.
The detection threshold was set to SL = 0.6.
Fig. 9. Average root mean square error (a) and average bias (b) of the
estimated risk level. The detection threshold was set to SL = 0.6.
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10
A PPENDIX I
We denote the covariance and gain matrix of the process
noise (see (21)) by
(1)
Qn
I8
06,2
=
,
and
G
Qn =
,
(29)
(2)
02,8
02,6
Qn
respectively. The submatrices are defined by
(p)
(p,v)
(p,)
Qn
Qn
Qn
(p,v)
(v)
(2) 2
Q(1)
)
Qn
02 , and Qn = wp I2 .
n =(Qn
(p,)
()
(Qn )
02
Qn
(30)
First, note that [44]
2
2
2
j tn
j tn
(e
2)
+2
t
1
(e
1)
q
j
j
n
j
Q(j)
2
n =
2j3
j (ej tn 1)
j2 (e2j tn 1)
(31)
for j = v, . Now, integrating the true integral equal to the
relative position pn+1 , linearizing the integrand, and approximating the integral according to the trapezoidal rule, we obtain
t'
n+1
pn+1 =
v(t)
cos ((t))
dt
sin ((t))
tn
t'
n+1
vn
t'
n+1
cos(n )
cos(n )
(v(t)vn )
dt+
dt
sin(n )
sin(n )
tn
tn
t'
n+1
((t) n ) vn
+
tn
tn
2
sin(n )
dt
cos(n )
cos(n )
sin(n )
v n n
sin(n )
cos(n )
cos(n )
vn sin(n ) vn+1
+
.
vn cos(n )
n+1
sin(n )
(32)
vn
(33)
where fp (xn ) replaces the topmost rows of f (xn ) in the implementation, [c]n denotes element n in the vector c, and
vn sin(n )
cos(n )
tn
S=
.
(34)
vn cos(n )
2 sin(n )
The corresponding process noise is given by
(v)
[Qn ]1,1
0
(p)
S
Qn = S
()
0
[Qn ]1,1
(35)
Q(p,v)
=
n
Q(p,)
n
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