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BobKamandanu
ChairmanAPBIICMA
CURRENT
STATUS
DESCRIPTION
PRODUCTION(MILLION TONS)
EXPORT(MILLION TONS)
DOMESTICSALES(MILLION TONS)
AVERAGE PRICEOFCOALREFERENCE/HBA
(USD/METRIC TON)
2009
254
198
56
2010
275
210
65
2011
353
287
66
2012
407
340
67
2013
421
349
72
70.70
91.74
118.40
95.48
82.92
2014e
2015e
425.00
429.25
329.45
328.41
95.55
100.84
74.00
78.00
Note :
Production in 2015 is assumed to increase 1% from 2014 due to Coal Production Control Policy by
The Government ( Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources )
Domestic Coal Consumption in 2015 estimated by PLN & IPP and other industry demand
Source:
MinistryEnergyandMineralResources
COUNTRY
2011
2012
2013
35,364.00
35,518.30
37,711.50
JAPAN
11,868.20
11,984.80
12,964.30
HONGKONG
39,598.20
37,899.10
36,273.30
SOUTH KOREA
27,131.80
29,105.20
29,323.30
TAIWAN
104,143.40
115,702.10
130,393.40
CHINA
13,293.90
14,676.00
14,365.00
THAILAND
10,989.70
11,636.20
14,508.80
PHILIPPINES
17,337.50
16,138.00
17,128.90
MALAYSIA
74,723.20
96,076.00
118,288.50
INDIA
805.40
215.60
1,177.40
USA
2,848.40
154.30
172.20
NETHERLAND
5,080.80
4,082.80
3,016.60
ITALY
3,559.30
5,704.80
4,078.00
SPAIN
6,654.30
5,414.00
5,924.00
OTHERS
353,398.10
384,307.20
424,325.20
TOTAL
Note:Theexportdatain2014and2015estimatedifthereisnocontrolproductionpolicyimplementedby
2014e
39,597.08
13,612.52
34,459.64
30,789.47
136,913.07
12,928.50
15,959.68
17,985.35
124,202.93
1,236.27
180.81
2,714.94
3,670.20
6,220.20
440,470.63
2015e
41,576.93
14,293.14
32,736.65
32,328.94
143,758.72
11,635.65
17,555.65
18,884.61
130,413.07
1,298.08
189.85
2,443.45
3,303.18
6,531.21
456,949.14
IndonesianGovernment,(basedondatafromIndonesia,CentralBerauofStatistics(BPS))
Source : Statistical Yearbook of Indonesia 2014; Indonesia,CentralBerauofStatistics(BPS)
Source: PLN
Source : IEA, Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, World Energy Outlook Special Report 2013
Europe &
Canada
4MtN.Americas
8Mt
35Mt
100 Mt
Mediteranean
China
S.Korea
220 Mt
230 Mt
102 Mt
Columbia
83 Mt
122 Mt
S. Africa
76 Mt
Taiwan 143 Mt
10Mt
India
Japan
SE.Asia 71 Mt
66 Mt
Indonesia
371 Mt
Australia
182 Mt
ASIAISSTILLTHEMAINPLAYERINWORLDSTHERMALCOALMARKET
Source : Deutsche Bank 2013; other sources
Seaborne trade in 2015 looks still slightly over supplied (supply growth is
expected to exceed demand growth ). Real price recovery will depend heavily in
the worlds economic situation;
Despite slow demand from China and India, the countries still expected to be the
key driver for 2015 coal demand. Potential increase of demand from Japan will
also become the key driver for 2015 coal demand;
Indonesia and Australia will supply Asian Market as usual but more African and
Northern Americas coal will likely to enter Asian Market;
Full price recovery can be expected will happen in early 2015. New coal power
plants will enter the grid in some Asian Countries ( India, Indonesia, Malaysia,
the Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Srilanka etc ).
9
Roughly two billion people (close to 30% of worlds population) still have no
access to electricity. The demand in developing countries is growing rapidly;
Compared to other primary energy sources, coal is the most readily available
and provides the lowest cost fuel for power generation;
Coal is the fastest growing fuel for the past decade, and will remain as the
dominant fuel for global electricity;
More and more coalfired plants are designed to use LRC, especially in the
developing countries.
Indonesia has huge LRC deposit mostly situated in South Sumatera and
Jambi province.
10
Million Tons
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
34 37
LowRank
Coal
Medium
Rank
2011
251
2012
34
2013
37
27 28
2 7 9
Total
Production
LowRank
Coal
Medium
Rank
94
353
194
223
129
386
27
243
141
421
28
HighRank
LowRank
Coal
73
273
56
21
79
175
102
304
47
28
82
183
106
317
56
33
98
PRODUCTION
EXPORT
Medium
Rank
Total
Domestic
Sales
TotalExport
HighRank
HighRank
DOMESTICSALES
Note:
LowRankCoal:5100kkal/kgADB.<4700kkcal/KgGAR
MediumRank:>5100 6100kkal/kgADB..4700 5700kkal/kgGAR
HighRank:>6100kkal/kgADB..5700kkal/kgGAR
11
The government requires all exporter of coal (mining owner and trader) to be
registered as Registered Exporter (ET) at the Ministry of Trade (MoT);
Mining companies now are required to pay for coal royalties payment in
advance before the shipment;
SUMMARY
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SUMMARY
LOW RANK & CLEAN COAL INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES :
Coal upgrading at power plants (BOT): Implementing of Clean Coal Technologies to improve
SUMMARY
REGULATORY&INFRASTRUCTUREASPECTS :
Indonesia remains the world's largest thermal coal exporter and the LRC portion
is increasing. However, sustainable coal supply depends largely on the appropriate
policy;
Export control is a temporary measure to balance coal supply and demand. This effort
requires commitment from producers, as well as government in curbing illegal mining
activities;
The government should reconsider its policy to increase royalti tariff for IUP holder.
17
THANK YOU
The author gratefully acknowledges the sources of slides used in preparing this presentation
Bob Kamandanu
Chairman APBI-ICMA
T : +62 21 3001 5935
F : +62 21 3001 5936
Menara Kuningan Building, 1st Floor - Suite A
Jl. HR. Rasuna Said Block X-7, Kav. 5
Jakarta 12940 INDONESIA
Email: secretariat@apbi-icma.org
Website: www.apbi.icma.org
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APPENDIX
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