Li Battery Market

The Lithium-Ion Battery Value Chain
Istanbul, October 2012
LiB-Market-Overview-SHORT_2012-08-03_TR version.pptx
Roland Berger has extensive project experience in all aspects of

the (Automotive) battery market
Clients
Selected projects
> Market and technology studies Li-Ion batteries for raw material suppliers (3 projects
with focus battery value chain on Japan, Korea, and China)
> Production cost benchmarking for LiIon battery materials (cathode, anode, separator,
electrolytes)
> Market entry studies Cathode Active Materials (CAM)
> Akquisition target search for battery materials (CAM, electrolytes)
> Market study and partnering strategy for global Japanese manuf. of Li-Ion batteries
> Site selection Europe for Japanese LiIon manufacturer
> Market studies on the global LiB market for passenger cars and commercial
vehicles as well as for other industries (High end consumer goods, ESS)
> Market entry strategy Europe for Asian battery manufacturer
> Strategy development for European battery manufacturer
> Strategy development Commercial vehile for Asian battery manufacturer
> Analysis of standardization impact on European LiIon-battery market
> Trend analysis eMobilty in the Triad for Chinese battery manufacturer / State-owned
EV manufacturer association
> European key-account strategy for overseas battery manufacturer
> Study on use of different battery types for European battery manufacturer
association
Source: Roland Berger
We continuously do first-class research on current and future

e-Mobility issues, with a special focus also on batteries
Selected Roland Berger studies E-Mobility

Global Vehicle LiB
Market Study
Joint VDMA study:

Effect of e-Mobility on
equipment suppliers
Battery materials multiclient study: Creating

cost transparency
PHEV Readiness Study:

Electric Vehicles in
America
Powertrain 2020
The Future Drives
Electric
> The demand for Li-Ion

batteries is rising
along with xEV market
development
> In total, the market will
compromise around $ 9bn
on pack-levek in 2015
> 80% of the market is
dominated by 5 players,
not more than 8 will
dominate the market from
2016 onwards
> Industry consolidation is
highly likely
> Joint study with the VDMA

(German engineering
association)
> Study outlines effects of
e-Mobility on equipment
suppliers due to shift to
alternative powertrains
requiring new
manufacturing processes
> Recent multi-client study

with various OEMs and
Tier-1 suppliers
investigating costs of
battery raw materials
> Battery raw materials
have cost reduction
potential of ~10% in the
next 5 year
> In the long-term, new
process innovations can
further decrease costs
> USA must prepare for the

mass introduction of
PEV's (EV's & PHEV's)
> Cities, states, government
automakers, utilities and
consumers alike must
participate and contribute
to the successful rollout
> EVs/PHEVs necessary

due to future emissions
regulations
> Technology basically
available, but with
improvement potential
> Market volumes of up
to 8 m EVs/PHEVs
> Challenges for players
identified and actions
derived
Aug 2011/Jan 2012

Source:
Roland Berger
May 2011
Dec 2010
(Updated Apr 2011)
Oct 2010
Oct 2008/Sep 20091)
We play a key role at all major and industry-renowned conferences

through speeches or as chairman
Selected conferences in 2010/2011

FOCUS
CONFERENCES
ROLE
BATTERY
AABC 2011, Mainz
Speech
Kraftwerk Batterie 2011, Aachen
Speech
3rd and 4th EV Battery Forum 2011:

Barcelona, Shanghai, 2011
Speeches
Elektronik-Kongress Ludwigsburg 2011
Speech
ELECTRIC
MOTORS
SAE Powertrain 2010/2011:

Stuttgart / Indianapolis / Shanghai
Speech and role as

chairman
E-MOBILITY
STRATEGY
Internationales Wiener
Motorensymposium 2011
Speech
Aachen Colloquium Automobile and

Engine Technology 2010, 2011
Speeches
EVS 24, EVS 25 Shenzhen 2010
Speeches
Source:
Roland Berger
A.
Disclaimer and abbreviations
A.
Introduction
1. This presentation has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client. Within the framework of the engagement, Roland
Berger Strategy Consultants ("RBSC") will act solely in the interest of the client. Property rights in favor of third parties will not be
constituted and no protective effect shall arise for the benefit of third parties
2. The presentation shall be treated as confidential and may not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without
prior written consent from RBSC. It is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation
3. RBSC does not assume any responsibility for the completeness and accuracy of any documents and information made available to
RBSC in the course of the project. RBSC assumes that the data and documents provided are complete, comprehensive and that the
contents are truthful and exact; a detailed examination has only been conducted by RBSC if stated so in the presentation
4. This presentation does not confirm whether turnaround is possible or worthwhile. The decision over the use, the evaluation of the
applicability and the use of the presentation by RBSC are the sole responsibility of the client. The content and scope of the
presentation is exclusively at the discretion of RBSC
5. This presentation relates only to the position as of May 2012 and might not be updated. This presentation has been compiled based
on the General Terms and Conditions of RBSC as attached to this presentation. Any use of this presentation (or excerpts of it) or its
content must only be made within the scope of the General Terms and Conditions of RBSC. It is explicitly stated that section 2 no. 2
(no protective effect for the benefit of third parties) and section 9 (limitation of liability) of the General Terms and Conditions of RBSC
apply. If, notwithstanding the intention of the parties, property rights in favor of third parties shall be constituted, section 334 BGB
(German Civil Code) shall apply mutatis mutandis. Any possible liability to third parties is limited according to section 9 of the General
Terms and Conditions of RBSC
INTRODUCTION
Glossary
Terms
Abbreviations
Explanation/translation
HEV
Hybrid electric vehicle
PHEV
Plug-in hybrid vehicle
EV
Electric vehicle
ESS
Energy storage system

Exchange rate [vs. USD]
Currency designations
Currency name
Abbreviation
RMB
Chinese Yuan Renminbi
1 USD = 6.31 RMB
JPY
Japanese Yen
1 USD = 82.84 JPY
KRW
Korean Won
1 USD = 1,139.26 KRW
B.
The "high-end" LiB Market
B.1 Market analysis
MARKET ANALYSIS - OVERVIEW
The high-end LiB market is expected to double every 5 years
MWh forecast comparison with Avicenne

Forecast comparison with Avicenne by seg't [GWh]
2011
2015
Forecast comparison with Auto vs. Non-auto [GWh]
2020
2011
2015
2020
224
224
10
142
29
71
31
11
10
61
31
11
Roland AviBerger cenne
19
14
19
29
23
18
142
111
25
Roland Roland AviBerger Berger cenne

- Low - High
31
4
23
31
4
45
6
24
Other
Tablets
PHEV
Auto
E-bikes
ESS
EV
Non-auto
Power tools
Mobile phones
HEV
Notebooks
Source: Roland Berger, Avicenne
71
21
0
27
111
49
58
63
131
33
61
12
43
6
85
85
71
Roland Roland AviBerger Berger cenne

- Low - High
Other Non-Auto
10
B.1.1
Automotive
11
AUTOMOTIVE
There are different options for electrifying powertrains

Technical layout depending on application and vehicle segment
PURE ELECTRIC DRIVING POSSIBLE
Micro/mild hybrid
Full hybrid (PHEV option)
Belt-driven
startergenerator
Parallel
hybrid
Integrated
startergenerator
PHEV
EV
Serial hybrid
Serial hybrid
(parallel option) (range
extended)
Battery
electric
vehicle
Mixed operation, incl. long distance
Urban/rural
Urban
Upper medium class/premium class, large SUVs, sports

cars, transporters/vans
Mid-size cars, Mini & small

MPVs, small
cars, small
SUVs, light
vans, mini
delivery trucks, vans, fun
sports cars
cars
Power-split
hybrid
Second
electric
axle
1)
2)
Main applications
(vehicle segments)
Engine
Gears
Clutch
HV E-Machine
1) Belt-driven starter-generator 2) Integrated starter-generators

12
AUTOMOTIVE
Roland Berger has developed two scenarios for xEV market

development Downsized Mobility and The Future Drives Electric
Scenarios to estimate powertrain penetration shares
Drivers
Mobility
needs
EV driving range
Low Scenario:
Downsized Mobility
High scenario:
The Future Drives Electric
EVs have limited range

No disadvantage for PHEVs
EVs have limited range

No disadvantage for PHEVs
Limited infrastr. in city centers

Slow roll-out
Developed infrastr. in urban areas

Accelerated roll-out
Stagnating fuel prices

Battery cost reduction
Rising oil prices

Accelerated battery cost reduction
Little government support for fuelefficient technologies
High tax incentives/subsidies first for

zero- or nearly zero-emission vehicles
Limited segment offering, A/B segments

for EVs, C/D segments for PHEVs
Wide segment offering; A/B/C segments

for EVs, C segments or bigger for
PHEVs
A few front-runners
Most OEMs remain skeptical
Numerous OEMs already in first phase

Many incumbent OEMs actively
involved
1
Infrastructure
Fuel and battery prices
Cost
limitations
Taxes/incentives
Segments
Image/
comfort
requirements
Brands
13
AUTOMOTIVE
Despite stagnating growth in Triad markets, vehicle sales are

developing strongly due to emerging markets' growth
Automotive End-user user markets
Passenger vehicles [Mio]
Market
development
PC + LCV (Class 1-3)

83.5
Trucks [Mio]
Buses [Mio]
Class 4+
89.2
75.8
2011
Comment
2015
2020
2.0
2.7
3.4
2011
2015
2020
Global passenger car sales are

expected to grow at 2% and 1%
annually through 2015 and 2020
Rising global transportation

demand will lead to strong growth
especially in heavy truck sales
While TRIAD markets are largely

stagnating, China, India and Brazil
are the main growth drivers
Annual growth between 2011 and

2015 will be 8%, between 2015
and 2020 a further 5%
Source: Expert interviews, industry reports, Roland Berger analysis
0.4
0.5
0.6
2011
2015
2020
Bus sales are largely replacement

sales, as bus fleets, especially in
emerging economies, are being
successively upgraded
Annual growth between 2011 and
2015 will be 5%, between 2015
and 2020 a further 4%
14
AUTOMOTIVE
Hybrids and will be adopted widely on passenger vehicles and

trucks, while plug-in and EV penetrations rates remain lower
Automotive HEV, PHEV, EV penetration
Passenger vehicles [%]
EVpenetration
Trucks [%]
Buses [%]
10%
9%
6%
5%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
0%
2015
2011
Comment
1%
2020
Mild or full hybrids penetration will

increase strongly as OEMs
struggle to meet new emission
standards
PHEV and EV sales remain highly
susceptible to extraneous changes
HEV
PHEV
EV
0
0%
2011
2
2%
3%
1%
2%
1%
2015
2020
HEVs will installed on long-haul

trucks to lower overall fuel
consumptions
EVs will be used on in short heavy
duty hauling at warehousing
facilities
0.00%
2011
0.01%
2015
0.02%
0.01%
0.01%
2020
Hyrbid and EV-penetration

remains low in the bus segment,
as alternative technologies, such
as CNG are given preference over
hybridization and electrification
No PHEVs in this segment
High scenario
15
AUTOMOTIVE
In terms of total energy demand, passenger vehicles will

contribute by far the largest share
Automotive Total energy demand
Passenger vehicles [GWh]
Market
development
PC + LCV (Class 1-3)
Trucks [GWh]
Buses [GWh]
Class 4+
124
8
58
45
Comment
58
23
19
3
12
2011
2015
2020
Low
15
2020
High
HEVs only account for a small

portion of the total energy demand
All three segment will grow by
between 50% and 70% between
2011 and 2015 and by up to 50%
thereafter
HEV
PHEV
0.2
2.1
4.1
2011
2015
2020
Low
7.3
2020
High
HEVs will installed mainly on longhaul trucks to lower overall fuel

consumptions
EVs will be used mainly on in short
heavy duty hauling, e.g. at
warehousing facilities
0.8
3.2
6.0
9.2
2011
2015
2020
Low
2020
High
Hyrbid and EV-penetration

remains low in the bus segment,
as alternative technologies, such
as CNG are given preference over
hybridization and electrification
No PHEVs in this segment
EV
16
TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
Accordingly different chemistries will be used over time NCM

dominating, LFP gaining ground for HEV and in China
CAM shares Automotive
HEV [%]
PHEV [%]
Share
development [%]
57%
53%
46%
54%
31%
9%
Comment
2015
6%
8%
2020
2011
2015
LFP is predominately used in

China due to cost advantages
LMO
LFP
NCA
48%
41%
29%
34%
38%
14%
7%
NCM and LMO dominate due to

their high power capability
53%
31%
22%
NCA is only used in products from

JCI (SAFT chemistry)
NCM
41%
34%
7%
2011
48%
26%
27%
33%
EV [%]
27%
6%
4%
14%
4%
2020
2011
2015
For higher energy cells (longer

electric range) NCM is preferred
over LMO
LFP is predominately used in
China
27%
3%
2020
NCM is dominating since it

provides higher energy (longer
electric range) over LMO
LFP is only used in China
LCO
17
B.1.2
E-bikes
18
E-BIKES
More than 90% of all e-bikes sold globally are sold in China, highend penetration, however, remains low
High-end e-bike sales by geography
E-bikes sales by region [Mio bikes]
46.1
28.3
0.6 0.4
26.6
2011
76.7
4.3
3.7
11.1
4.4
2.0 3.2
Japan/Korea
52.2
37.6
China
2015
India
60%
India
Other Asia
35%
21%
25.6
14%
4%
2020
NAFTA
Source: Industry reports, Roland Berger analysis
However, China has the lowest

high-end penetration rate and
therefore contributes relatively
less to global high-end e-bikes
sales
Other Asia
High-end e-bikes sales [Mio bikes]
97%
Europe
NAFTA
In 2011 China accounted for 92%

of global e-bikes sales
By 2020 this figure is going to
drop to 62%
Japan/Korea
High-end penetration rate 2011 [%]
Europe
2.2
1.2 0.5
8.0
4.4 1.3
2011
2015
4.2
3.3
12.3
2020
As a result, China contributed only

50% of global high-end e-bikes
sales in 2011
The major markets driving highend e-bikes sales are Europe,
NAFTA and Southeast Asia
China
19
E-BIKES
LiB is mainly relevant in the high-end market, however, penetration

remains comparatively low
E-bikes End-user markets and Lib penetration
E-bikes sales [Mio bikes]
LiB penetration [%]
Average cell capacity [kWh]
Market
0.39
16%
26
0.33
5%
8
1%
2
2011
Comment
0.35
2015
2020
Global e-bikes sales will grow by

37% annually between 2011 and
2015 and by 26% between 2015
and 2020
90% of e-bikes sales are
accounted for by low-end bikes
2011
2015
2020
2011
2015
2020
Li-ion is gradually coming to

replace NiMH and NiCd battery
packs
The majority of high-end e-bikes

sold have limited battery capacity
and are mainly used for assistance
Li-ion penetration in China, which

accounts for over 90%, remains
low due to high price sensitivity
Battery capacity growth is also

limited as power output is
legislatively limited in most market
Low-end
20
E-BIKES
We expect a total demand of approx. 1.6 GWh in 2020, the majority

being LMO and LFP
E-bikes Energy demand and CAM shares
Energy demand [GWh]
CAM shares [%]
Market
5%
1,574
8%
10%
NCM
LMO
LFP
147
8
2011
Comment
2015
2020
Calculated in kWh energy

demand for high-end e-bikes will
grow by 161% p.a. between 2011
and 2015, and by another 61%
p.a. between 2015 and 2020
80%
72%
15%
20%
2011
2015
60%
NCA
LCO
30%
2020
Since only high-end market

considered, lower LFP share and
correspondingly higher share of
high-end materials NCM and NCA
Nonetheless, high LMO share
accounted for largely by China
21
B.1.3
ESS
22
ESS LIB MARKET
Lithium-ion batteries are still at an early stage of development in

ESS applications and growth patterns remain volatile
ESS End-user markets and Lib penetration
Total newly installed storage
capacity [MW]
Newly installed LiB storage

capacity [MW]
Average discharge rate [h]
Market
10,866
2
3,415
2,601
122
2011
Comment
10
2015
2020
Strong growth in installation of

renewable energy power plants
will create a growing demand for
on-grid energy storage or loadleveling applications
2011
578
2015
2020
Lithium-ion power are but one in a

range of technologies competing
in this segment
Unlike in other segments LiB
installation is somwhat volatile
depending on projects undertaken
in any given year
2011
2015
2020
Average discharge rates will

increase also, as Lithium batteries
are deployed more widely in the 612 our storage range
23
ESS LIB MARKET
Energy demand for LiB-ESS applications will reach >10 GWh, the
largest share of which will be taken by LFP
ESS Energy demand and CAM shares
Energy demand [kWh]
CAM shares [%]
Market
10,404
45%
32%
62%
16%
23%
2,311
32%
21
2011
Comment
51%
32%
6%
2015
2020
Demand for Lithium-type ESS

applications will grow by 35%
annually on average between
2015 and 2020
2011
2015
2020
LFP is dominating since it

provides longest life for lowest cost
For applications where higher
energy per weight and volume is
required, NCM and LMO are
preferred
24
B.1.4
Electronics
25
ELECTRONICS
The global electronics market will continue to grow strong, with

more than 5 Bn cells being sold in 2020
Electronics End-user user markets
Tablets [Mio cells]
Notebooks [Mio cells]
Market
development
Mobile phones [Mio cells]

2,714
2,529
1,966
2,057
1,573
1,335
850.0
475.0
154.0
2011
Comment
2015
2020
Global notebook sales will grow by

and 2020
2011
2015
2020
2011
2015
2020
Global notebook sales will grow by

and 2020
Global mobile phone sales will

grow by 6% annually between
2011 and 2015 and by 5%
between 2015 and 2020
95% of sales are accounted for by

replacement demand
95% of sales are accounted for by

replacement demand
26
ELECTRONICS
Lithium penetration is highest in consumer electronics; polymer

cells are gradually replacing cylindrical and prismatic cells
Electronic LiB penetration
Tablets [%]
LiB
penetration
100%
Notebooks [%]
100%
Mobile phones [%]
100%
86%
83%
78%
67%
73%
33%
10%
1%
2011
Comment
2015
2020
Lithion-ion polymer cells are te

only cell-type that can meet tablets
requirements in terms of weight
and width, penetration therefore is
and will remain at 100%
Cylindrical
Prismatic
2011
17%
1%
22%
2015
1%
2020
Lithium-ion penetration remains

constant at 97% overall, the
remaining 3% being accounted for
by niche applications
As weight requirements increase,
polymer penetration goes up
23%
0%
2011
0%
2015
2020
Lithium-ion penetration for mobile

phones is at 100%
The share of polymer cells will
gradually increase, also with a
view to increasing weight
requirement
Polymer
27
ELECTRONICS
Increased demand and growing average battery capacity produce a

compound growth effect in all three electronics segments
Electronics Total energy demand
Tablets [GWh]
Notebooks [GWh]
Market
development
Mobile phones [GWh]
28.5
23.2
18.7
16.5
12.9
10.7
7.9
7.2
1.9
2011
Comment
2015
2020
The table market will grow by 39%

between 2011 and 2015 and
continue to grow strong at 18%
through 2020
There seems to be no substitution
effect between tablets and
notebooks or mobile phones
2011
2015
2020
Strong market growth and

increasing average battery
capacity produce a compound
effect, resulting in annual growth
rates of 15% between 2011 and
2015, and 11% between 2015 and
2020
2011
2015
2020
As more media and entertainment

applications migrate to mobile
phone platforms average battery
capacities increases
In effect total energy demand will
grow by 13% annually between
2011 and 2020
28
TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
With slimer tablets and notebooks and higher energy demand of

gadgets, NCM replaces LCO and NCA gradually
CAM shares Consumer electronics
Tablets [%]
Notebooks [%]
Mobile phones [%]
Share
44%
22%
Comment
NCM
53%
19%
47%
62%
19%
53%
16%
15%
34%
28%
23%
2011
2015
2020
35%
31%
26%
2011
2015
2020
NCA is used in top-of-the line

products only, which require the
longest operational time
NCA is used in top-of-the line

products only, which require the
longest operational time
LCO (lower energy than NCM) for

lower priced products.
LCO (lower energy than NCM) for

lower priced products.
NCA
17%
91%
87%
83%
2011
2015
2020
14%
NCM is the predominant material
LFP
13%
60%
NCM is the predominant material
LMO
9%
Application requires thin pouch

cells; LCO is most suitable for this
NCM, due to its higher energy is
used in top-of-the-line products
NCA cannot be used in pouch
cells due to gassing issues.
LCO
29
B.2 Technology cost and price analysis
30
B.2.1
Cell economics and target prices
31
CELL ECONOMICS & TARGET PRICES
We use a realistic reference cell for our analysis throughout this

study over 96 Wh
Typical 96 Wh PHEV cell Cell specifications
Cell design
MAIN SPECIFICATIONS
26 Ah/3.7 V
Energy capacity: > 96 Wh
Specific energy: 135 Wh/kg
Cell dimensions: 85 x 173 x 21 mm
Active materials:
Cathode: NCM ternary mix
Anode: Graphite mixture
Electrolyte: EC/DMC/EMC 1m LiPF6
Separator: Entek (20m)
Prismatic Al-housing (0.8 mm) including lid and
feed-throughs (Al, Cu posts )
Major area of application in PHEVs
32
A typical Li-Ion PHEV2 cell (with 26 Ah, 3.7V) has a weight of

716 g CAM accounts for approx. 31%
Typical 96 Wh PHEV cell Mass breakdown assumptions
Cell mass breakdown1)
COMMENTS
Exact material split depends on

cathode/anode material type/cell
chemistry
~716 g
Housing and feed-througs

19%
Cathode
31%
Separator
Electrolyte
4%
16%
Weight of cathode and anode

shown includes Cu/Al foil, binder
and carbon black
2020 forecast assumes constant
energy capacity of 96 Wh; usage
of higher-density CAM materials
therefore results in total weight
reduction to 680 g in 2016 (using
higher-density NCM) and 667 g in
2018 (using HCMA)
30%
Anode
1) Approximate values for ternary mixture (NCM), depend on the chemistry and quality
Source: IIT; expert interviews; Roland Berger
33
In a typical 96 Wh PHEV cell cathode material1) accounts for up to

39% of cell material costs
Typical 96 Wh PHEV cell Cell cost structure 2015
Cell cost breakdown, 2015
Cell material cost split, 2015
Total cost: approximately USD 23.3/cell (~ 249 USD/kWh)

Margin
SG&A
Overheads
USD 13.4/cell
~24%
of total cell
costs)
5%
10%
39%
Cathode
18%
Anode
13%
Electrolyte
19%
Separator
11%
Housing and feed-througs
Labour
6% 1%
Energy/Utilities 0%
D&A Equipment
58%
18%
0%
2%
D&A Building
Quality / Evironmental
Raw material
Material cost
breakdown
1) Including carbon black content, foil and binder cost

Source: Expert interviews, Roland Berger price calculation
34
... while CAM raw materials nickel, cobalt and manganese and
lithium account for as much as 63% of cathode material cost
Typical 96 Wh PHEV cell Cathode cost structure (NCM ternary mix CAM) 2015
Cathode cost breakdown, 20151)
Cathode material cost split, 2015
Total cost: approximately USD 5.22/cell
USD 3.28/cell
SG&A Margin
5%
Overheads
Labour
1% 7%
Energy/Utilities
9% 0%
~45%
of total Cathode
costs)
20%
Nickel (>99.8%)
33%
Cobalt (>99.3%)
Manganese
7%
D&A Equipment 9%
0%
3%
D&A Building
Maintanance 3%
Quality / Evironmental
63%
12%
Raw material
25%
Lithium carbonate
1%
Carbon black
Al foil (20 )
PVDF Binder
3%
Material cost
breakdown
1) Carbon black, foil and binder manufacturing costs included in raw material cost, manufacturing costs shown are those of the CAM manufacturer. Excluding carbon black, foil and binder cost, raw material share equals 55%
Source: Expert interviews, Roland Berger price calculation
35
According to our bottom-up calculation, declining cell prices will

put pressure on cell and CAM manufacturer margins in mid-term
Typical 96 Wh PHEV cell Cell price breakdown 2015 [US $ / cell]
Other
materials1)
CAM cost
CAM
margin
Cell
margin
Cell cost
7.5%
6.0 %
22.1
Cell
price
Delta
23.3
1.2
1.3
Market
price2)
22.0
2.3
2.1
0.4
8.2
0.3
13.4
4.3
CAM
Cell
margin material
cost
For a typical CAM

manufacturer
Raw materials account for
up to 55% of total cost
D&A and utilities account
for up to 25% of total cost
For a typical cell
manufacturer
Raw materials account for
up to 58% of total cost
D&A and utilities account
for up to 19% of total cost
4.6
Other Cathode CAM

material SG&A
cost
Comment
Cell
D&A
Labor/
utilities
Cell
SG&A
Cell
cost
Cell
margin
Cell
Price
Market Market
price
price
Margin pressure
Any price decrease beyond 24 USD / cell will have direct impact on CAM
and cell manufacturer margins
In view of their limited ability

to offset sales price declines,
CAM and cell manufacturers
will compete over a shrinking
profit pool
1) Anode, separator, electrolyte, housing 2) Expected market price based on expert interviews
Source: Industry reports, experts interview, Roland Berger analysis
36
To significantly reduce cell costs beyond 2015, major innovations

in CAM technology and introduction of new CAMs are necessary
Typical 96 Wh PHEV cell Impact of material improvements on cell prices
(cost for Auto. customers)
Comment
NCM cell
2015
Cost reduction NCM cell 2015 2020
NCM cell
2020
Potential cost
reduction HCMA
(230
USD/kWh
204
USD/kWh
-6%
22.1
0.4
1.0
-10%
0.1
20.8
5.2
4.3
16.9
16.5
NMC
cell cost
2015
HCMA cell
2020
Manufacturing
Energy
density1)
Labor
NMC
cell cost
2020
0.9
19.9
3.4
16.5
HCMA
HCMA
cell cost
2020
Innovation pressure
Unless HCMA material is introduced, further price reduction potential of CAM materials is
limited and margins remain at unacceptable level
Also cell manufacturer need (and will) improve processes and yield rate
CAM cost share 1) Based on a high-density 50-50 mixture of NCM 111 and LiNiO2
Const. cell energy (at 96 Wh)

assumed
In 2016 introduction of higher
density NCM CAM, resulting
in:specific cell energy increase
to141 Wh/kg and concurrentt
reduction in NCM usage to 113 g
In 2018 introduction of high-density
HCMA CAM: furher increases
specific cell energy to 144 Wh/kg
with HCMA usage to100 g
HCMA price includes a license fee
of 2%
No changes in anode, separator
and electrolyte cost assumed in
figure:
add. potential 10..20$ /kWh
Add. cell manufacturing process
improvement: potential ca. 10..15$
/ kWh
Cell price forecast 2018..2020:
170$ 190$ / kWh (incl. 6%..12%
margin for both CAM and cell
manuf.)

37
37
CELL ECONOMICS & TARGET PRICES - CONSUMER CELL
In the mass consumer cell segment Chinese players dominate;

also high margin pressure despite significantly lower invest
Typical 2.2 Ah 18650 Consumer cell China3) Cell price breakdown 2015
Other
materials1)
CAM cost
CAM
margin
Cell
margin
Cell cost
7.5%
6.0 %
1.45
Cell
price
1.52
0.08
Delta
0.02
Market
price2)
1.50
0.13
0.03
0.57
0.02
CAM
Cell
margin material
cost
Cell
D&A
Labor/
utilities
Energy capacity: > 8 Wh

Cell dimensions: Height: 65
mm, 18. 5 mm
0.18
0.36
Other Cathode CAM

material SG&A
cost
2.2 Ah/3.7 V
Specific energy: 141 Wh/kg
0.15
0.98
Comment
Cell
SG&A
Cell
cost
Cell
margin
Cell
Price
Market Market
price
price
Margin pressure
In spite of significantly lower fixed costs, Chinese CAM and cell
manufacturers rely heavily on subsidies to retain acceptable margins
Active materials:
Cathode: NCM ternary
mix
Anode: Graphite mixture
Electrolyte: EC/DMC/EMC
1m LiPF6
Separator: Entek (20m)
Cylindrical cell with lid and
burst membrane
Major area of application in
consumer electronics
1) Anode, separator, electrolyte, housing 2) Expected market price based on expert interviews 3) Based on Chinese labor cost with 50% lower invest
as compared to Japanese/Korean production
38
B.2.2
Material manufacturing process economics
39
MATERIAL MANUFACTURING PROCESS ECONOMICS
Material prices are expected to decline Driven also by strong

competition to capture market shares
Impact on the material prices (mid-term - 2015)
IMPACT FACTORS ON PRICES
Raw material
cost
Materials
Standardizatio
Competition/
n
capacities
Process
cost1)
NMC 25 $
LMO 15 $
NCA 35 $
2)
CATHODE
Overal Price
l
per kg
impact 2015
18 $
(50-50 mix)
ANODE
SEPARATOR
Solution:
20 $
ELECTROLYT
E
Increasing the price

1) Investment, energy, labor
Source:
(LiPF6:25-30$)
Limited impact
Decreasing the price
Overall strong price decrease
2) Process cost reduction potential for LFP available
Roland Berger "Battery material cost study V.2.4 / Q1 2011"
40
B.2.3
Technology roadmap, sell-in cycles and expected price

development for NCA, NCM, LFP and LMO
41
TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
Major innovations in cathode material technology are expected to

emerge only after 2015
Li-Ion key materials roadmap
2000
2005
2010
Cathode
NCA
2015
NCM
LCO
LCO
2025
2030
5V spinel
Sulfur
HCMA
Air
LiNiPO4 5V
LMO
LiCoPO4 5V
LFP
LiMnPO4 4V
Graphite
Soft Carbon
Electrolyte
LiPF6 + org.
solvents
(standard
electrolyte)
Polyolefin
Li metal
Li4Ti5O12
Hard
Carbon
Separator
Anode
2020
Graphite + Graphite Si-composites

Gel-polymer
electrolyte
5v electrolyte
Solid polymer electrolyte
Polyolefin +
ceramic coating
Source: Avicenne compilation, Kai-Christian Mller, Frauenhofer ISC
Polyolefin +
ceramic filler
42
SELL-IN CYLCLES
however, because sell-in cycles vary between 2 and 6 years,

depending on industry, actual deployment will be even later
Example: Commercialization/Sale-in of CAM materials for passenger car usage
R&D by LiB supplier & auto OEM
Checking
data sheet
Needed
period
Details
Material
evaluation
2-3 years1)
Data sheet of a material
is checked
Contents are following
Specification of
general battery that
uses the material
Characteristics of the
material itself
Price
LiB supplier produce a

"pilot" LiB using the
material
Check the performance
of the LiB
Safety
Energy density
Power density
Durability, etc.
R&D by OEM
Battery tune up &
mass production
preparation
At least 1 year
LiB development with
the material
Matching with other
materials
Market
launch
of EV
At least 2 years
At least two years
are needed to
conduct an in-car
test
material's positioning
in a battery
Preparation of massproduction of LiB
Quality control
Yield ratio
improvement
1) In case of improvement of the material that are already used by the LiB supplier, it can be one year
2) Before the car fine-tuning, two years are needed for a "model fix" that includes exterior design and fabrication of main components
Source: Roland Berger Analysis
43
SELL-IN CYLCLES
For the four industries analyzed, sell-in cycle range from 3 to 6

years
Sell-in cycles by industry
Data sheet checking
Material evaluation
Mass production
preparation
1 Automotive
0.5-1 year
General material
requirements
checked
0.5-1 year
Detailed material
evaluation and
release
> 1 year
Detail quality
checks as well as
design revisions
2-3 years
Intensive road
and test bench
testing
2 ESS
0.5-1 year
General material
requirements
checked
0.5-1 year
Detailed material
evaluation and
release
0.5-1 year
Quality and
safety checks
and testing
1-2 years
Project-based
onsite testing
3 Consumer
electronics
End-user largely
not concerned with
CAM, focus on cell
performance
End-user largely
not concerned with
CAM, focus on cell
performance
2-6 months
Packing and
batching largely
standardized
0.5-1 year
Fast innovation
cycle and short
supply chains
4 Power tools
End-user largely
not concerned with
CAM, focus on cell
performance
End-user largely
not concerned with
CAM, focus on cell
performance
2-6 months
Packing and
batching largely
standardized
0.5-1 years
Longer for highend applications
Segment
Launch
44
C.
Changes in the value chain
45
CHANGES IN THE VALUE CHAIN
The value chain is expected to consolidate and to develop a

clearer tiered structure (1/2)
TODAY (2010)
Raw materials > Oligopoly
Lithium
mining
Anodes,
Cathodes,
Separators,
Electrolytes
and
Precursors
CHANGES BY 2020
> Some selected new players
> New recycling companies
> Business models integrating recycling
> Dominated by Asian > New players (from specialty chemical

(Jap.) players
sector ) especially for Automotive and
ESS
> Partially specialized
precursors sourced > More integration of precursor
manufacturer
> Some cathode
materials
> Cathode manufacturing by cell
manufactured by
manufacturer only for top 2..3 with
cell manufacturer
large chemical business
46
CHANGES IN THE VALUE CHAIN
The value chain is expected to consolidate and to develop a

clearer tiered structure (2/2)
TODAY (2010)
Battery cells / > New JVs (Autostacks
Consumer LiB
("LiB manuf.") manuf.)
> Indepen. Asian LiB
> Research spin-offs
with public & IPO
funding
Battery
assembly
CHANGES BY 2020
> Massive consolidation (cost
pressure, innovation)
> Less upstream integration (esp.
cathode/anode material)
> More downstream integration, cell
manufacturer as Tier-1s to OEMs
> Auto-Cell manuf. JV's as exemption
> Mainly by OEMs (JVs > Increased outsourcing, but still

LiB) inhouse
dominated by in-house assembly
> Selected supplier > Cell manufacturers will deliver larger
LiB JVs
part of system (incl. electronics) as
Tier-1
> Limited LiB alone
47
Please contact us for further information
CONTACT
CONTACT
Francesco
Pavoni
Senior Partner
Dr. Wolfgang
Bernhart
Senior Partner
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Turkey

Automotive Competence Center
nirah Cad. Mektep Sok. No. 1
Bebek 34342 Beikta, stanbul
Turkey
Phone +90 212 358 64 00
Mobile +90 531 747 53 35
mailto:francesco_pavoni@tr.rolandberger.com
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Germany

Automotive Competence Center
Loeffelstrae 46
70597 Stuttgart
Germany
Phone +49 711 3275 7421
Mobile +49 160 744 7421
mailto:wolfgang_bernhart@de.rolandberger.com
48
It's
character
that creates
impact!
49

Li Battery Market

Încărcat de

Informații document

Titlu original

Drepturi de autor

Formate disponibile

Partajați acest document

Partajați sau inserați document

Opțiuni de partajare

Vi se pare util acest document?

Este necorespunzător acest conținut?

Drepturi de autor:

Formate disponibile

Li Battery Market

Încărcat de

Drepturi de autor:

Formate disponibile

The Lithium-Ion Battery Value Chain

Istanbul, October 2012

Roland Berger has extensive project experience in all aspects of

Source: Roland Berger

We continuously do first-class research on current and future

Selected Roland Berger studies E-Mobility

Joint VDMA study:

Battery materials multiclient study: Creating

PHEV Readiness Study:

> The demand for Li-Ion

> Joint study with the VDMA

> Recent multi-client study

> USA must prepare for the

> EVs/PHEVs necessary

Aug 2011/Jan 2012

Oct 2008/Sep 20091)

We play a key role at all major and industry-renowned conferences

Selected conferences in 2010/2011

AABC 2011, Mainz

Kraftwerk Batterie 2011, Aachen

3rd and 4th EV Battery Forum 2011:

Elektronik-Kongress Ludwigsburg 2011

SAE Powertrain 2010/2011:

Speech and role as

Aachen Colloquium Automobile and

EVS 24, EVS 25 Shenzhen 2010

Disclaimer and abbreviations

Hybrid electric vehicle

Plug-in hybrid vehicle

Energy storage system

Chinese Yuan Renminbi

1 USD = 6.31 RMB

1 USD = 82.84 JPY

1 USD = 1,139.26 KRW

Source: Roland Berger

The "high-end" LiB Market

B.1 Market analysis

MARKET ANALYSIS - OVERVIEW

The high-end LiB market is expected to double every 5 years

MWh forecast comparison with Avicenne

Forecast comparison with Auto vs. Non-auto [GWh]

Roland AviBerger cenne

Roland AviBerger cenne

Roland Roland AviBerger Berger cenne

Roland AviBerger cenne

Source: Roland Berger, Avicenne

Roland AviBerger cenne

Roland Roland AviBerger Berger cenne

There are different options for electrifying powertrains

Full hybrid (PHEV option)

Mixed operation, incl. long distance

Upper medium class/premium class, large SUVs, sports

Mid-size cars, Mini & small

1) Belt-driven starter-generator 2) Integrated starter-generators

Roland Berger has developed two scenarios for xEV market

EVs have limited range

EVs have limited range

Limited infrastr. in city centers

Developed infrastr. in urban areas

Stagnating fuel prices

Rising oil prices

Little government support for fuelefficient technologies

High tax incentives/subsidies first for