Population Growth,

Urbanization, and
the Challenges of
Unemployment

Introduction
Countries have different levels of
urbanization
Population growth rates in the Middle
East-North Africa (MENA) region are
among the highest in the world.
Aridity in the region increases demands
on water and agricultural land, and
urban services.

 Transformation of the structure of the

labor force
o From rural and agrarian production
systems to urban industrial and service
oriented
o Younger age group entering labor force

 Labor markets have been unable to

absorb growing labor force
Result: expansion of the urban informal
sector, income inequalities, urban
poverty, unemployment particularly high
on womens unemployment

Urbanization

Urbanization
The most rapid population growth in
urbanization occurred in the oilexporting countries.
Large rural populations constitute a
pool of future rural-to-urban migrants

Rural-to-urban migration
Fueled by both push and pull factors:
o The push of population pressure on
natural resources and the lack of
economic opportunity in the rural areas
o The pull of perceived economic
opportunity and a better lifestyle in the big
cities

- Intensified by the urban bias of

government policies and development
strategies
Result: underdevelopment of rural areas,
greater investment in urban infrastructure,
and income gaps between rich and poor

International Migration
- Also play a part in urbanization
- Examples:
- immigration of Jews contributed to the growth of
Tel Aviv and West Jerusalem
- Labor migration especially during the 1970s

Effects of Urbanization
Severe shortages of housing and services
Lack of regulation of construction and urban
development
Unemployment
Underemployment
Poverty among urban populations
Shortage of drinking water
Growth of slums or shantytowns
Polluted air
Inadequate waste disposal systems

POPULATION
GROWTH

 1950s
o Population explosion due to high fertility and
declines in the crude death rate

1960s
o The region had the worlds highest fertility rate
among developing regions

1970s
o Infant mortality rate declined

Classification of Countries based on the trends in birth

and death rates and their socioeconomic setting
Persistent high
fertility and
declining
mortality among
middle-income
and poor
countries in an
intermediate-tolow socioeconomic setting

Declining
fertility and
mortality among
middle-income
countries in an
intermediate
level of socioeconomic
development

Rich GCC (Gulf

Cooperation
Council)
countries, high
fertility and
rapidly declining
mortality in a
high
socioeconomic
setting

Low Fertility and

mortality in an
upper-middleincome and
above-average
socioeconomic
setting
(European-style
transition)

Jordan
Iraq
Syria
Yemen
West Bank
Gaza Strip

Egypt
Lebanon
Turkey
Iran
Morocco
Tunisia

Saudi Arabia
Bahrain
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
UAE

Israel

Population growth rate of the 1980s

- Caused by pro-natalist policies of the new
Islamic regime which banned contraceptives
and encouraged marriage and family
formation
- Result of rural fertility behavior
1990s
- fertility declined

Countries with higher fertility rates in rural

areas than urban
ex: Egypt, Jordan, Yemen
Higher educational attainment of mother,
smaller number of children.

 Fertility declined faster in urban than rural,

as effect that urbanization and its correlates
female education, employment
opportunities, delayed marriage, and access
to contraceptives and family planning
information
Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey

 High birth rates have helped to keep

the population of Middle Eastern
countries young.
Countries with young populations
exhibit a high dependency ration and
small tax base.

Labor Force Growth

and Employment
Challenges

 1/3 of population still depends on

agriculture
Economic modernization changes the
sectoral distribution of the labor force
o Expanding service sector

 The structural transformation of the regional

economy was accompanied by the emergence of a
female labor force, but it has remained a relatively
small percentage of the total salaried workforce.
But still, large part of the female population
remains rooted in agriculture in countries such as
Turkey, Syria and Iran. (non-GCC countries)
In GCC countries, majority of the female workforce
(nationals) is engaged in service-sector work. Less
prestigious work is performed by imported female
labor.
Only in Morocco and Tunisia have large percentage
of female workforce involved in the industrial
(manufacturing) sector.

1970s height of the regions oil-based

economic development
There was a massive outflow of surplus labor
from countries such as Egypt, Jordan, West
Bank, Tunisia, Yemen, and Lebanon to
capital-rich and labor-deficit GCC countries.
Also imported non-Arab workers including
Koreans, Filipinos, Sri Lankans and
Yugoslavs

 1975
o Foreign labor constituted 47% of the labor
force in the Gulf countries

1990
o Increased to 68%
In Kuwait, foreign labor was 86 % in 1990.

Jordan
- labor-exporting country that also
imported labor.
- Exported skilled workers and educated
professionals to the rich Gulf states.
- Imported unskilled and low-wage
workers for construction, domestic
services and some public services they
would not perform.

Labor Migration Patterns

North African and Turks preferred Europe.
Germany for Turks
France for Algerians, Moroccan, and
Tunisians
In response to European guest workers
programs.

Reduction of
Intraregional labor flows
Affected Jordanian, Palestinian, Yemeni
workers working in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia
Expulsion of expatriate workers was a
punishment for their countries stance on
the 1991 Gulf War
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia rewarded Egypt for
its position against Iraq by replacing
Jordanian, Palestinian, Yemeni workers with
Egyptian workers.

Rising
Unemployment

 Mid1990s
o High fertility + rural-to-urban migration +
changes in the pattern of intra-regional
migration = rapid growth of labor force
o High growth of labor force + economic
stagnation = high rates of unemployment
o Lowering of guaranteed jobs in public sector

Lack of competitiveness and productivity &

inefficient utilization of human resources
o Main problem in the labor market

Unemployment
Age-specific
15-19 and 20-24 new entrants to workforce
group

Vary by educational attainment

Feminization of unemployment
o Number of unemployed women higher than men
o Growing supply of job-seeking women vs
housewife-ization

Poverty and
Inequality

There
has
been
considerable
improvement in standards of living, as
measured by such social indicators as life
expectancy, infant mortality, maternal
mortality, access to safe water, adequate
sanitation facilities, rising age of first
marriage, fertility rates, literacy, and
school enrollments , as well as by wage
rates and household incomes

However, gender gaps exist and

whereas
poverty
have
been
decreasing in some parts of the
region, poverty has been increasing
in other parts

 In Iraq*, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and

Yemen
o Military expenditures in 1990 far
exceeded expenditures on education and
health

 Rural-urban disparities
o Persistence of absolute poverty in rural areas
especially in Egypt, Yemen, Morocco, and in the
Gaza Strip
o However, difficulties still exist in giving access to
health, water, or sanitation in urban areas

Morocco
Highest poverty levels are among rural wage
earners
The self-employed are mainly the poor in
urban areas
Poor workers earn 1/3 the average wage or
the legislated minimum wage
Not enough of the national income has been
channeled into categories of public spending

Tunisia
Poverty is predominantly rural
7% of the population have annual
expenditures below the poverty line
Another 7% are near poor
Unemployment is high, especially
among the poor, youth, and women

In contrast to other countries, Tunisia

has demonstrated a commitment to
social spending and has been
expanding its social insurance
program

Among countries of MENA, only

Tunisia has established effective
social programs to tackle poverty,
increase employment through public
works, and encourage employment
among women

EGYPT
Poor households constitute 20-25% of the
total, most of which are concentrated in
Upper Egypt
Female-headed households are poorer than
male-headed households in both rural and
urban areas
o Widows, divorcees, deserted, wives of useless
husbands

 Rural areas the poor are the agricultural

laborers or farmers
Urban areas the poor are the construction
workers or service workers, and even
government employees
o Deterioration in real wages

Palestine
Labor activity
o Most important type of household income
o Rendered unstable by curfews, strikes, and restrictions
on employment in Israel

Gender discrimination and social controls on

women
o High fertility rate keeps women tied to the home and
increases pressures on the household budget
o Total fertility: 6.84 births per woman
o Early marriages more than 1/3 of entire female
population got married under age of seventeen

CONCLUSION

Although urbanization holds many

promises for people, including a
wider range of options, activities, and
services
unchecked
population
growth has created enormous
pressures on urban services

Women are more vulnerable to

poverty and more subject to
inequality than are men

Challenges

Enhancing womens access to education

and jobs
Investments in physical and social
infrastructures to upgrade urban services as
well as employment
Improving labor and environmental
standards
Community development programs as a way
of mitigating youth unemployment,
alleviating urban poverty, and instilling
solidarity

END.
Kathleen Cruz and Anabelle Mariano