Estimating Population Sizemod

Estimating Population Size Activity
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Natalia Cocom, Kathy Patt, Adilet Patt, Efren Briceno, Lili Trujeque
Estimating Population Size

The best way to measure the size of a population is to count all the individuals in that population. When determining the population sizes of trees or other relatively immobile organisms, this
method is practical. If the organism is mobile, however, such as a fish, counting every individual
would be difficult. Some individuals might be counted twice or not at all, since the experimenter
would not know which fish had been counted and which had not.
Knowing the size of a population of animals is important in making environmental decisions
that would affect the population, but estimating the size of wild populations is extremely difficult. In the case of ocean dwellers, such as whales, the task is especially challenging. Estimates
of the number of minke whales, for example, have differed by as much as a factor of 10. Deciding whether to allow hunting of minke whales, based on population estimates that are too high,
could lead to extinction of the species. On the other hand, basing a decision on an estimate that is
too low could unnecessarily ban hunting of minkes by people that depend on whales for food.
One method for estimating population size, the "line-transect survey", involves observing every
animal seen while traveling in a straight line. Although traditionally used for counting land
animals, the line-transect survey method has recently been applied to whales, providing more
reliable data.
Another method often used to estimate population size is the "mark and capture" technique,
in which scientists capture some animals from the population, mark them, and release them. At a
later time, the scientists again capture animals from the same population and observe how many
of them are marked. The method assumes that the ratio of the actual population to the sample
size is the same as the ratio of the number of marked animals to the number marked in the recapture sample. Knowing three of the four values [ recapture sample size (N2), number originally
marked (N1), and number marked in the recapture sample (R)], scientists can calculate an
estimate of the actual population size (P). This method of estimation is called the Lincoln Index.
P
P
N1
N2
R
=
=
=
=
=
(N1 x N2)/ R
total size of population
size of first sample (all marked)
size of second sample (recapture: some will be marked, some wont)
number of marked individuals recaptured in second sample
The Lincoln Index makes several assumptions that must be met if the estimate is to be accurate.
These assumptions are:
The population of organisms must be closed, with no immigration or emigration.
The time between samples must be very small compared to the life span of the organism
being sampled.
The marked organisms must mix completely with the rest of the population during the
time between the two samples.
Source: Reformatted from Palmer, Lee: www.brynmawr.pvt.k12.md.us/Palmer/APES
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PART A: IN-CLASS ACTIVITY - BEANS

Simulate the mark and capture method using beans.
MATERIALS: 50 beans, marking pen, plastic container with lid

PROCEDURE:
1)
2)
Mark 20 of the beans with the marker.

Place all 50 beans in the container and cover with the lid. Shake the container to mix the
marbles thoroughly. Take the lid off and without looking, withdraw 10 beans. Count the
number of marked beans and record in the data table.
3)
Put the 10 beans back in the container and replace the lid. Shake the container again and
withdraw a second set of beans. Again, record the number of marked beans in the sample in
the data table. Continue in this manner until you have completed 10 trials.
4)
Estimate the population size for each trail by multiplying the number of beans marked
(20) by the number of beans in each sample (10) and dividing the product by the number of
marked beans for that trial. The result is an estimation of population size. When you have
done this for all 10 trials, find the average by adding the estimates and dividing by 10.
DATA:
Trial #markedbeans
#
insample
population
estimate
200
100
100
100
66.67
66.67
66.67
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

4
50
50
66.67
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8
9
10
Averagepopulationsizeestimate:__86.7or87____________
ANALYSIS:
1)
How does the average value compare to the actual population size of 50?
The average population size is 87 beans and the actual population size is 101
beans.
2)
If there is a difference, explain what might cause the difference.

One explanation is that the beans were not mixed together properly and that led
to the difference between the average and actual population.
3)
What problems might scientists encounter in using this method in the field
that you would not have encountered in the simulation?
However, it usually is not possible to obtain a complete count or census of a
natural population of animals (and it is often difficult even for plants!). For
this reason, ecologists generally have to rely on some kind of estimate of
abundance or density. A variety of methods exist to do the job; the utility of
each varies depending on such factors as the type of organism, the habitat in
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which the population occurs, and the time and equipment available. Other
factors include animals that lose their mark due to molting or shedding of skin,
feeding habits and whether or not they mix properly with each other.
ESTIMATING POPULATION SIZE

SPECIES
Sample #
RED
YELLOW
WHITE
11
11
11
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11
11
10
1111
Total
12
DIVERSITY INDEX
Order
Description Number of
n/N
individuals
(n)
Red species
12
12/20
Pi
Pi2
lnPi
Pi ln Pi
0.6
0.36
-0.511
-0.306
RED
YELLOW
Yellow
species
White species
1/20
0.05
0.003
-2.996
-0.15
7/20
0.35
0.123
-1.05
-0.367
WHITE
s (number of species) = 3
N (total number of individuals) = 20
(sum) of pi2 (n/N)2= 0.486
(sum) of pi ln pi= -0.823
H = -(-0.306+ -0.15 + -0.367) = 0.823
D = 1/ (0.36 + 0.003 + 0.123) = 1/0.486 = 2.058
DENSITY AND FREQUENCY
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DENSITY
RELATIVE
DENSITY
FREQUENCY
RELATIVE
FREQUENCY
RED
12/10m2 =1.2
1.2/0.8=1.5
7/10=0.7
0.7/0.4=1.75
YELLOW
1/10m2 =0.1
0.1/1.9=0.053
1/10=0.1
0.1/1.0=0.1
WHITE
7/10m2 =0.7
0.7/1.3=0.538
3/10=0.3
0.3/0.8=0.375

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