Econ DA

Shell
Anxiety over China and US manufacturing has the global economy on
the brink. Browning 1/4
E.S. BROWNING. Markets Begin Year With a Thud WSJ 1/4/16. TF

The Dow Jones Industrial Average began 2016 with its biggest openingday loss since 2008, as financial markets struggled with the same problems that
disrupted them last year. The Dows 1.6% drop was triggered by a selloff in Asia and Europe following news
that Chinese manufacturing activity declined for a 10th
consecutive month in December. Chinas currency, the yuan, pulled back and the dollar rose against most
major rivals. Worries deepened that Chinas growth slowdown is harming the world economy and that its financial and economic
shakiness could roil markets further. Chinas growth rate is projected to fall to 6.3% in 2016, according to the International
Monetary Fund, from more than 10% in 2010. The Shanghai Composite Index plummeted 6.9%, triggering circuit breakers that

What
concerns U.S. investors isnt just China. It is the spreading signs
that weak global growth and a rising U.S. dollar are
harming U.S. corporate earnings and economic output, and
could continue to do so this year. On Monday, investors learned that U.S.
manufacturing activity declined in December for the
second consecutive month and that construction
spending fell in November.
shut down the market. In early trading Tuesday in Asia, stocks were mostly flat after a drop at the open.

New handgun production key to gun industry. Rosenberg 12

Yuval Rosenberg. 12/18/12. Gun Industry Has Boomed During Obama Years. The Fiscal Times TF

The U.S. gun and ammunition industry overall includes

about 300 companies, according to First Research. All told, the companies
make more than 6 million guns a year. Handguns are
growing as a percentage of overall U.S. gun production , a
recent First Research report noted. Pistols and revolvers made up about
half the guns manufactured in the U.S. in 2011, up from
about a third in 2001. Total U.S. gun production more than
doubled over the same period, the report notes. Rifles now account for
about 35 percent of guns made in the U.S., with shotguns and other firearms represent the
remaining 15 percent or so.

Gun industry is key to the economy as a whole. Devaney 15

Jason Devaney. Report: Gun Industry's Economic Impact Has Doubled Since '08. 4/20/15. http://www.newsmax.com/US/firearms-industryeconomic-impact/2015/04/20/id/639671/ TF

The economic impact the firearms industry has had on

the United States has more than doubled since 2008, according
to an industry report. The Firearms and Ammunition Industry Economic Impact Report, compiled by the National

the industry has grown from $19.1

billion in 2008 to more than $42.9 billion last year. The report
also says the industry is responsible for more than 34,000
"new, well-paying jobs over the past two years" for U.S. workers.
Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), shows

"The economic growth America's firearms and ammunition industry has experienced over the years has been
nothing short of remarkable," the report reads. "Over the past few years, the industry's growth has been

driven by an unprecedented number of Americans

choosing to exercise their fundamental right to keep and

bear arms and purchase a firearm and ammunition." According to the report,
there are 263,223 jobs in and related to the firearms and
ammunition industry, while the average compensation (wages and benefits) is $52,220 per year. The
amount of wages and benefits for which the industry is responsible
increased from $2.4 billion to $6 billion, according to the data. Last year, the
firearms and ammunition industry contributed as much as $42.96 billion
to the economy, according to the NSSF, and paid $5.79 billion in tax revenue. "United
States companies that manufacture, distribute, and sell
sporting firearms, ammunition, and suppliers are an important part of the
country's economy," the report reads. "Manufacturers of firearms,
ammunition, and supplies, along with companies that sell
and distribute these products, provide well-paying jobs in
America and pay significant amounts in tax to the state
and federal governments.
Handguns are key to international trade and international economic
stability. Pavlich 13
Katie Pavlich. Guns and the Economy. 4/24/13. http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2013/04/24/guns-and-the-economy-n1573238 TF

Firearms imports are approximately 35 percent of the

U.S. firearms market, according to the ATF and United States International Trade
Commission. About 5.5 million are manufactured each year in the
U.S., with approximately 250,000 being exported by the
U.S. while 3.5 million additional firearms are imported from other countries, totaling 9
million new firearms in the U.S. commercial market each
year. There are a lot of countries [from which] the U.S.
imports at least 10,000 firearms a year. Slightly over half of them are
handguns and the remainder being rifles and shotguns, Bromund says. What you see is
that this is worldwide traffic directed to the United
States. SpringField Armory, for example, is located in Croatia, and one of the
companys most popular pistols, the Spring- Field XD semi-automatic handgun, is manufactured

Brazil
serves as the largest foreign commercial exporter to the United
States and exported 846,619 firearms in 2011. Austria was second, coming in at
522,638, according to ATF. Germany, Belgium, Russia, Turkey,
Canada, Romania, Czech Republic, Finland, Spain, Italy
and Croatia and many others all depend on purchases
from the United States. Many of the countries currently
exporting to the United States are part of a fragile
European Union thats already on the brink and has very
little economic growth. Eighty-five percent of the
commercial firearms that are sold in the world for
commercial uses are used in the U.S. marketplace. In 2012,
there. Beretta Italy manufactures shotguns and exports them to the United States.

more than 100 countries attended the firearms industrys annual trade show known as the SHOT
Show. SHOT is also the fifth-largest annual trade show held in Las Vegas.

Global economic instability leads to nuke war. Harris and

Burrows 09
Harris and Burrows, 9 *counselor in the National Intelligence Council, the principal drafter of Global Trends 2025, **member of the NICs Long
Range Analysis Unit Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis, Washington Quarterly,
http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_burrows.pdf)
Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is
likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces. With so many possible permutations of outcomes, each
with ample opportunity for unintended consequences, there is a growing sense of insecurity. Even so, history may be more

While we continue to believe that the Great

Depression is not likely to be repeated, the lessons to be
drawn from that period include the harmful effects on fledgling
democracies and multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s)
and on the sustainability of multilateral institutions (think League of Nations in the same period). There is no
reason to think that this would not be true in the twenty-first as
much as in the twentieth century. For that reason, the ways in which the
potential for greater conflict could grow would seem to be even more apt in
a constantly volatile economic environment as they would be if change
instructive than ever.

would be steadier. In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will remain
priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda. Terrorisms appeal will decline if economic growth
continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025, however,
the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will place some of the worlds most dangerous capabilities within their reach.

Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long established groups
inheriting organizational structures, command and control processes, and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated

self-radicalized,
particularly in the absence of economic outlets that would become narrower in an economic
downturn. The most dangerous casualty of any economically-induced drawdown
of U.S. military presence would almost certainly be the Middle East. Although Irans acquisition of
nuclear weapons is not inevitable, worries about a nuclear-armed Iran could
lead states in the region to develop new security
arrangements with external powers, acquire additional
weapons, and consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions. It is
not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that
existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in the
attacks and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become

Middle East with a nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensity conflict and terrorism taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to
an unintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established. The close
proximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual-capable Iranian
missile systems also will produce inherent difficulties in achieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack.

The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like Israel, short warning
and missile flight times, and uncertainty of Iranian intentions
may place more focus on preemption rather than defense,
potentially leading to escalating crises. Types of conflict
that the world continues to experience, such as over
resources, could reemerge, particularly if protectionism
grows and there is a resort to neo-mercantilist practices.
Perceptions of renewed energy scarcity will drive
countries to take actions to assure their future access to
energy supplies. In the worst case, this could result in interstate
conflicts if government leaders deem assured access to energy resources, for example, to be essential for maintaining
domestic stability and the survival of their regime. Even actions short of war, however, will have important geopolitical

Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and
modernization efforts, such as Chinas and Indias development of blue water naval capabilities. If the
implications.

fiscal stimulus focus for these countries indeed turns inward, one of the most obvious funding targets may be military. Buildup of

increased tensions, rivalries, and

regional naval capabilities could lead to

counterbalancing moves, but it also will create opportunities for multinational cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes. With
water also becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East, cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to be
increasingly difficult both within and between states in

a more dog-eat-dog world.

Poverty causes massive violence and racism against marginalized

groups. Social Watch 13
Social Watch (International network of citizens organizations in the struggle to eradicate poverty) , POVERTY AND RACISM INEXTRICABLY
LINKED, SAYS UN EXPERT, 2013. NS

poverty is
closely associated with racism and contributes to the
persistence of racist attitudes and practices which in turn
generate more poverty. Racial or ethnic minorities are
disproportionately affected by poverty; and the lack of
education, adequate housing and health care transmits
poverty from generation to generation, a United Nations rights expert has
In a report to the UN General Assembly, a UN rights expert has emphasised that

said. According to Ruteere, poverty does not result only from an unequal sharing of resources. 'Discrimination
against groups and persons based on their ethnicity, race, religion or other characteristics or factors has been
known to encourage exclusion and impoverish certain groups of the population who suffer from unequal access
to basic needs and services.' In his report to the UN General Assembly last November, the UN Special
Rapporteur on contemporary forms of racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance,
Mutuma Ruteere, was of the opinion that the issues of poverty and racism are inextricably linked. As has been

'poverty... [is] closely associated

with racism... and contribute[s] to the persistence of
racist attitudes and practices which in turn generate more poverty' (paragraph 18). Ruteere said
emphasised in the Durban Declaration, he said,

that as the previous Special Rapporteur on racism underlined in his report to the General Assembly in 2009,
'racial or ethnic minorities are disproportionately affected by poverty, and the lack of education, adequate
housing and health care transmits poverty from generation to generation and perpetuates racial prejudices and
stereotypes in their regard'. In his report, the Special Rapporteur welcomed the efforts and initiatives
undertaken by various states to prohibit discrimination and segregation and to ensure full enjoyment of civil,
cultural, economic, political and social rights for all individuals and groups. He noted that certain groups and

minorities, Roma, Dalits and

migrants, are still confronted with poverty and discrimination,
especially in the enjoyment of their economic and social
rights. 'The persistence of discrimination against those groups and individuals remains a challenge to the
individuals, including people of African descent, indigenous peoples,

construction of a tolerant and inclusive society, and only the guarantee of equality and non-discrimination
policies can redress that imbalance and prevent those groups that are discriminated against from falling into or
being trapped in poverty,' Ruteere emphasised. Poverty and discrimination In his report, the Special Rapporteur

the manifestations of poverty and racism in the

areas of economic and social rights such as education,
adequate housing and health care, and other rights
affected in the link between racism and poverty, including
the right to work in just conditions, social security, food
and water. According to Ruteere, poverty does not result only from an unequal sharing of resources.
discusses

'Discrimination against groups and persons based on their ethnicity, race, religion or other characteristics or
factors has been known to encourage exclusion and impoverish certain groups of the population who suffer

' Groups that are discriminated

against, such as Afro-descendants, minorities, indigenous peoples, migrants and refugees, are
disproportionately affected by poverty in all regions of
the world. 'The complex relationship between racism and discrimination suggests that only the
from unequal access to basic needs and services.

guarantee of equality and non-discrimination can redress that imbalance and protect such groups from falling
into or being trapped in poverty,' the Special Rapporteur stressed. According to the report, a history of
discrimination has left a large number of

racial and ethnic groups in various parts of the world

trapped in conditions of 'chronic deprivation of resources'

with limited choices and vulnerable to multiple violations
of their rights.