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Market Conditions
Scalping your favorite Forex pairs takes practice and dedication. This article series
will guide you through everything you need to know to become a Forex Scalper.
Talking Points
Before any scalper places their first trade it is important to identify the markets
current technical condition. Every day will bring a new price action, and it is
important that we are using the appropriate trading strategy to meet the days
challenges.
Today we will review the three most common market conditions presented to
Forex traders. All of these conditions can be identified by identifying key points on
your chart through basic technical analysis. Once we have a grasp on market
direction, we can then look to better implement the scalping strategy of our
choosing.
Learn Forex USDCAD Trend, Range, and Breakout
Price Ranges
Identifying a trading range is the first market condition we will review. A range
occurs when price is moving virtually sideways which can also be associated with
channel trading. Even though the market doesnt have a clear direction, it can still
provide opportunities for diligent scalpers once one is identified.
The first step to finding a range is to identify support and resistance on your chart.
These pricing levels can be found by connecting a series of recent market highs
and lows using horizontal lines. Resistance is the current ceiling on price and
Support is defined as price actions current floor. These points will be the basis for
our strategy, and should be clearly marked on our chart before moving further.
As long as a range holds, scalpers can take a neutral market stance. This means
they can look to take both buy positions near levels of support and sell look to sell
levels or resistance.
Learn Forex Identifying a Trading Range
Strategic Breakouts
When market ranges end, we are most likely to encounter a breakout. A breakout
market occurs when price moves through or breaks an identified level of support
or resistance. Immediately following a breakout, traders can look to take advantage
of scalping opportunities with the fresh market momentum.
Below we can see a breakout from the previously identified range on the USDCAD
30 Minute chart. Once the previous price ceiling broke, traders had the opportunity
to buy the market. The process of trading a breakout can be simplified through the
use of an entry order. These orders will remain pending and execute once the price
selected becomes available for trading.
It should be noted, in the event of price breaking a level of support, this process
can be replicated. However, with new downward momentum scalpers will look to
sell the market.
Learn Forex USDCAD Price Breakout
Trending Markets
Breakouts normally signal the beginning of a market trend. The Forex market is
known for its propensity to continue moving in a singular direction for an extended
period of time, and once found scalpers can trade in the direction of the trend.
The process of identifying the trend begins with the identification of a series of
swing highs and lows. A swing low is identified by a current valley on a graph,
which normally represents a temporary low. Swing highs will identify temporary
peaks in price action. If a currency pair is making a series of higher highs as in the
USDCAD 30Minute chart below, you are probably looking at prices advancing in
an uptrend. This is a strong signal for scalpers to begin looking for fresh buying
opportunities.
It should be noted that markets are just as prone to declining in downtrends. In the
event that a chart is printing lower lows and lower highs, scalpers should then look
to sell the market with the charts current direction.
Learn Forex USDCAD Uptrend
Now that you are a little more familiar with various market conditions, we can
proceed to look at some of the different topics that are vital to Forex scalpers. In
our next edition, we will begin to look at different timeframes and currency pairs,
along with how they can affect our scalping outlook.
Scalpers are continuously faced with choices and tough decisions when trading
Forex. On a day to day basis however, none is as important as deciding which
currency pair to trade. Choosing a currency not only will affect the strategy we
choose but ultimately our profitability as well. So today we will review two key
factors that need to be evaluated prior to implementing your favorite scalping
strategy.
Currency Pairs
Now that you know what to look for its time to narrow the field of potential pairs
for scalping. Out of 56 different pairs offered at FXCM, traders should consider
scalping pairs comprised of the G8 currencies shown above or one of the Forex
Majors pictured below. These pairs are comprised of the most frequently traded
currencies in the world which helps when it comes to factoring in both spreads and
liquidity.
It should be a top priority to determine the appropriate chart for your trading.
Reference a specific date range to begin your analytics
Finalize your execution by moving to a shorter term timeframe
One of the most frequent concerns voiced by new Forex scalpers is how to identify
which timeframe and charts to use in their analysis. This question is often
addressed after selecting a currency pair for scalping, and makes sense because the
possibilities are almost limitless. The image below includes 12 different time frame
charts for the EURUSD. If all of these possibilities seem overwhelming, dont
worry youre not alone.
To help simplify this process today we will look at charts for scalping, and how to
identify the appropriate timeframe for our selected strategy.
A Frame of Reference
Whether you are a position trader or scalper it is always good to begin your
charting with a frame of reference. A frame of reference is specifically looking at
how much data is displayed on your chart. This reference is designed for scalpers
to find the short term trend while identifying key levels of support and resistance.
Think of it this way, scalpers looking for 10 pip gains would be ill advised to begin
looking at multi-year graphs on a daily chart to begin their analysis. So what
reference point and what timeframe charts should a scalper use?
Scalpers can begin by referencing 7 days worth of data. This allows the trader to
take in exactly one weeks worth of pricing to establish short term market
direction. Traders can then identify market swings and key levels of support and
resistance for the week without getting analysis paralysis from having too many
candles on their charting screen.
Below we can see two EURUSD charts, both looking at one weeks worth of data.
Notice how we can easily identify the trend on both graphs? Once this frame is
selected, the time frame chosen simply denotes the number of bars displayed for
the period selected. I find that a 30minute is a great place to begin, while traders
wanting fewer bars may opt for a 2Hour or 1Hour selection.
Learn Forex EURUSD Weekly Reference
Support and resistance levels are critical areas for scalpers to identify.
Price action, pivots, and moving averages can all be used to find these
values.
Once identified, traders can then look to employ the strategy of their
choosing.
One of the most important concepts a scalper needs to master is how to find levels
of support and resistance. These levels will act as price ceilings and floors which
will ultimately help us determine our scalping strategy.
While there are many ways to identify support and resistance, today we are going
to take a look at three of the most common methods that can be applied in our day
trading.
Learn Forex EURUSD and Price Action
Price Action
The first way of finding support and resistance is by using price action. Scalpers
should become comfortable with finding swing highs and swing lows on their
charts as they are natural areas of support and resistance. A swing high is identified
as a peak on the graph and a swing low can be pinpointed as a valley. These
extremes in price can help us prepare for either a swing or breakout trading
opportunity depending on what the graph is displaying.
Above we can see todays price action on a EURUSD 5minute chart. A price
channel has been drawn by connecting a series of swing highs and swing lows. The
swing highs help denote resistance and areas where scalpers may look for
opportunities to sell. By connecting the swing lows, we have created an area of
support where traders may wish to close existing sell positions, and potentially
look for opportunities to buy.
Learn Forex EURGBP with Cam Pivots
Pivot Points
Pivot points also make great areas of support and resistance. These lines are drawn
using a preset formula and are often favored by scalpers because they can be added
to virtually any chart. Above is a great example of support in action on a EURGBP
30 minute chart using Camarilla Pivot Points. Once added, you can clearly see
Moving Averages
Last we will take a look at using simple moving averages (MVA) as a level of
support and resistance. Most traders may be familiar with this average on longer
period graphs, but is just as effective on shorter time frames such as the 30 minute
and 5 minute charts. If price is above the average, traders can wait for dips and
look to buy a currency pair. Conversely if price breaks below this value, the 200
moving average will change from an area of support to new resistance. Traders can
then look for selling opportunities as long as price remains under the indicator.
Above we have a 200 period MVA displayed on an AUDUSD 5 minute chart. For
the majority of trading on January 27th price stayed above the displayed 200 MVA.
Traders could have used this as an opportunity to buy retracements or look to trade
breaks towards higher highs on the AUDUSD. This morning however, support was
broken with price moving through the 200 MVA. At this point, traders should
consider the average as resistance while potentially changing their trading bias.
It should be noted that ranges can be traded as long as support and resistance
remain intact! In the event the currency pair you are trading breaks or begins
trending, it will be time to abandon the range and either switch to a new chart or a
new strategy.
Trading a Retracement
As a retracement trader our first task is to identify the trend. This can be done
through a variety of methods mentioned in the 2nd installment of the Definitive
Guide to Forex Scalping. In the event that price is trending downwards,
retracement traders will look to sell the market after price retraces, which means
the market has moved temporarily against the primary trend. Likewise in the event
that price is trending upwards, traders would wait for prices decline before buying
towards a higher high. Above we can see a series of retracements on the USDCHF
currency pair offering selling opportunities.
Once a retracement is found, its time to begin planning where to enter the market.
The easiest way to do this is to place entry orders near a converging level or either
support (to buy in an uptrend) or resistance (sell in a downtrend). Below we have
an example of this technique in practice. Displayed you can see resistance in the
form of a trendline as well as a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line. Traders can look
to sell the market at this point near .9035. Risk should be monitored above
resistance to close positions in the event of a price breakout, and finally profit
targets should be set towards lower lows.
Learn Forex USDCHF Support & Resistance
Trading with an oscillator can potentially help traders better find market
momentum returning back in the direction of the primary trend. Below we can
again see the USDCHF 30 minute chart, but this time the RSI indicator has been
added to the graph. Price has moved off of resistance, but oscillator traders will
wait for RSI to close below an overbought value prior to entering into the market.
Once a trade is placed we should again evaluate our positions exits. Even when
trading with a confirming oscillator a stop should be used!
RSI is one of many oscillators that can be used with a successful retracement
strategy. If you would like to learn more about trading oscillators, click here to
sign up for our FREE RSI Training Course
.
Trading a Breakout
The first key to scalping breakouts is to identify key levels of support and
resistance. This can be done through a variety of methods mentioned in the 4th
installment of the Definitive Guide to Forex Scalping. Once found, setting up a
breakout trade is a straight forward process. In the event of a level of resistance
breaking, traders will look to buy. An example of this is depicted above using
todays GBPCAD price action. Conversely, traders will look to sell when a key
level of support falls.
The big question is always where to enter into the market in the event of a
breakout. Theoretically a breakout occurs if a level of support or resistance is
breached by even 1 pip! This allows aggressive scalpers to get into the market as
soon as possible. Some traders may flock to this methodology as it lets traders
maximize their profits when a trade moves in their favor. However, getting into the
market first also will expose you to be the first trader stopped out in the event of a
false breakout. Traders that need further confirmation can wait for a 30 minute
candle close and then make a decision whether to enter the market.
As with any strategy, there are risks when trading breakouts. Lets now look at
managing an open position.
Learn Forex GBPJPY False Breakout with Stop
Above is an example of a false breakout this morning on the GBPJPY. Notice how
price broke cleanly through support, and then abruptly changed directions. Even
though at one time the trade might have been profitable, when the market moves
back above the designated breakout area, traders should have a plan for exiting the
market. When selling a breakout of support, stops can be placed above this value
which becomes new resistance.
Learn Forex GBPCAD with Risk:Reward levels
Risk VS Reward
Overall, trading breakouts is an exciting way to approach scalping. It should be
noted since breakouts occur during times of market volatility it is imperative to
maximize your profits when the market breaks in your favor! This can be done
byusing a positive risk reward ratio. This means traders should look to make more
in profit, relative to what is being risked through the placement of a stop order.
Highlighted above is a 1-2 Risk:Reward ratio with traders looking to make 2x the
amount of profit on a breakout relative to the amount risked. This ratio can be
improved by either reducing the amount risked or increasing the amount of pips in
profit targeted on a position.
The final lesson scalpers must learn is probably the most important, risk
management. The decision on how to manage risk can have a great impact on the
bottom line of your account than deciding where your entry orders should go or
even what time frame to trade on.
Today we will conclude the Definitive Guide to Scalping as we focus on managing
risk when scalping.
Learn Forex GBPCAD Early Morning Breakout
Stop Placement
The first key to risk management is to identify a key level of support and
resistance. This can be done through a variety of methods mentioned in the 4th
installment of the Definitive Guide to Forex Scalping. Once found, regardless if
you are trading retracements, breakouts, or ranges will have a definitive area to
place your stop. In the event you are looking to buy a currency pair, risk should be
managed underneath a line of support. Conversely, if a trader is selling a currency
pair, risk should be managed above a level of resistance.
Traders should also consider how close to these lines of support and resistance to
place their stop. Aggressive traders can set their stop very close to these values to
close losing positions as quickly as possible. This is opposed to a more
conservative approach where stops would be placed further away to allow
positions more space to breath.
When it comes to placing stops it is important to remember that each traders
strategy and risk tolerances will be different! But regardless of your choices,
always scalp with a stop. Now lets look at a few other rules scalpers should
remember.
The 1% Rule
While no one wants to experience a loss on their account, it is an inevitable part of
scalping. Because of this, it is always important to have a plan of action to manage
risk before entering into a trade. While placing a stop is important, traders should
also consider the 1% rule. This means that traders should never risk more than 1%
of their account balance on any one trading idea. That means using the math above,
if you are trading a $10,000 account you should never risk more than $100 on any
one positions.
The 1% rule can also be coupled with a favorable risk reward ratio. Using a 1:2
setting, this means if we risk 1% in the event of a loss, at minimum we should look
to close our trades out for a 2% profit. This would translate into a $200 profit on a
$10,000 account balance. Now that you are familiar with the 1% rule, lets look at
our next risk management tip.
The 5% Rule
While no one wants to lose 1% of their account balance on any one trade idea, it is
also beneficial to review the maximum exposure you have for your TOTAL
account balance. The 5% rule reminds scalpers to never have more than 5% of
their total account balance at risk across all trades. I also recommend this as a final
cutoff point for trading. Meaning if you lose more than 5% in one day, it is
probably best to call it quits and look to pick up trading again when the market is
more favorable.
To put this into perspective a scalper with a starting balance of $10,000 on 5
consecutive open positions, at 1% risk per trade , your balance would still have
$9500 remaining at the end of the day. This is critical because even on your worst
day, you can still come back tomorrow and pick up your trading strategy! Also this
rule can prevent revenge trading and accruing even more losses.