Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
CRIMINOLOGICAL RESEARCH
AND STATISTICS
CONTENTS
PART 1: INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH METHODS
Lesson 1: Introduction to Research
Lesson 2: Approaches in Research
PART 2: THE RESEARCH PROCESS
Lesson
Lesson
Lesson
Lesson
Lesson
Lesson
3:
4:
5.
6:
7:
8:
2
2
12
19
19
41
56
78
96
133
PART 1
INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH METHODS
LESSON 1
INTRODUCTION TO THE RESEARCH PROCESS
When we try to explain or control crime, oftentimes we rely on
several sources of knowledge that are readily available but at worst readily
flawed. For instance, we rely on common sense, tradition, authority, or
anecdotal accounts. In this part, you will learn another source of
knowledge that attempts to lessen the biases associated with flawed
sources of knowledge.
Key terms
Research
Theory
Practical problem
Research problem
Data
Literature review
Why do research?
Before we tackle what is research, let us first learn the importance
of research and what motivate researchers to do it. We will shortly return
to a popular adage that goes, Knowledge is power. Knowledge of problems
and, of course, knowledge of their solutions are powerful tools of advancing
our society. Thus, research primarily aims to advance and create new
knowledge. This is very true in the field of criminology and criminal justice.
We cannot control what we do not know. Thus, knowing crime and
the ways to control them, including the ones who control them, can really
prove useful for our efforts against crime. For example, if a chief of police
wishes to lessen crime in his jurisdiction, he should not do it in a
haphazard way. He/she first needs to explore the patterns of crime in
terms of its hot spots and hot times. With knowledge on the patterns of
crime, he/she might proceed to increase police efforts in these times and
places. And to guide his/her future actions, he/she can evaluate the
2
of laboratory instruments. The name scientist is not strictly only for these
people. Actually, a person is a man of science if he/she uses scientific
method in solving a problem; and a researcher uses the steps of scientific
method in conducting a research. It follows then that anyone can become
a researcher as long as he is well-versed in scientific method and uses it
to solve problems. An undergraduate criminology student, criminology
professor, police officer, correctional officer, lawyer, or even a civilian can
become men of science if they use the steps in research to solve a crime
problem.
What is research?
Probably, your first question in this course might be: What is
research? Before answering this question, let me first illustrate what is not
research.
Research is NOT . . .
when you tell your parents that you need money because you are
going to an internet caf to do research about types of crime; or
These are the major steps in scientific method that researchers use
to solve research problems discussed above (Dantzker and Hunter, 2006;
Maxfield & Babbie, 2005):
1. Identifying the problem
Here the researcher identifies his/her problem and formulates his
arguments and speculations to answer a certain problem. For
example, if the topic is about bomb threats, after reading the
literature and finding that previous research focused primarily on
characteristics of offenders, he may reasoned out that in order to
advance knowledge about bomb threats there is a need to explore
the spatial and temporal dimensions of these events. The spatial and
temporal patterns of bomb threats are things which researchers do
not know this is the research problem. He will argue then that
bomb threats are concentrated in space and time; and thus, nonrandom like other crimes.
2. Research design
The researcher then plans how to support this argument and to
collect the data. She/he can choose among several research
methods (i.e. survey, experiment, or secondary data analysis). Next,
he/she will decide who to study, when, what, and where. In this
case, since doing a national survey is not feasible considering
logistical and financial requirements, and experiment appears
inappropriate, the researcher can use a secondary data analysis of
reports about bomb threats. He then decides the time frame, say
2005-2014, and the place of study, say the whole Philippines not
his/her province to collect more data since these events are rare.
3. Data collection
The researcher now collects data he/she can analyze to support his
arguments. If reports of bomb threats are routinely collected by a
law enforcement agency, he can ask for such data from such agency.
If not, he/she can look for an alternative data source, like the news
reports because bomb threats are high intensity events like terrorist
acts which gain much attention from journalists and, thus, reported
in the media. He can locate online reports, instead of newspaper
reports, about bomb threats to expedite the data collection. After
collecting the news reports, it is time for the researcher to code the
news reports according to the desired data; for example: time, date,
location, type of target, presence of explosives, and words used by
the perpetrator.
4. Data analysis
When the data are ready for analysis, the researcher then uses
statistical software to summarize the data, especially to determine
7
Summary
Research is an act of creating and advancing knowledge. In doing
this, researchers motivated by curiosity, social problems, and theory
testing use scientific method in solving practical and conceptual
problems. The researcher argues about something, say a crime, and
attempts to collect data to support such argument. This undertaking is
much similar to a police investigator or a prosecutor who collects, collates,
and analyze evidence to support his argument that a certain individual
might have committed the crime.
LESSON 1 EXERCISES
Name: ________________________________ Date: ___________ Grade: _______
1. Discuss the importance of research and who researchers are.
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
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________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
2. What is a research problem and how different is it from practical
problems?
________________________________________________________________________
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________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
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________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
3. List at least 5 research problems in criminology and criminal justice
of which you are interested to solve. Give also the practical problems
that may be solves in part if such research problems are solved.
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
4. Describe and discuss the research process.
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
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10
References
Braga, A., Papachristos, A. & Hureau, D. (2012). The effects of hot spots
policing on crime: An update systematic review and meta-analysis. Justice
Quarterly, 1-31.
Booth, W., Colomb, G. & Williams, J. (2003). The craft of research. Chicago:
The University of Chicago.
Dantzker, M.L. & Hunter, R. (2006). Research methods for criminology
and criminal justice. Sudbury, MA: Jones and Bartlett Publishers, Inc.
Donner, C. & Jennings, W. G. (2014). Low self-control and police
deviance: Applying Gottfredson and Hirschis general theory to officer
misconduct. Police Quarterly, 17(3): 203-225.
Fraenkel, J. & Wallen, N. (2006). How to design and evaluate research in
education. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
Gottfredson, M.R. & Hirschi, T. (1990). A general theory of crime.
Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Kelling, G.L., Pate, A., Diekman, D. & Brown, C. (1974). The Kansas City
Preventive Patrol Experiment: Summary Version. Washington, D.C.: Police
Foundation
Maxfield, M. & Babbie, E. (2005). Research methods for criminal justice and
criminology. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth.
11
LESSON 2
RESEARCH APPROACHES
In the previous lesson, you were introduced to the nature of research
and its major steps. However, a trained researcher is aware that some of
those major steps are only applicable to certain research activities. For
instance, the use of statistics to support arguments is inappropriate and
not feasible in some research endeavors. Some researchers use interviews
and the very words of the respondents to support their arguments, or these
researchers may only gather data from only one respondent in some cases.
In this lesson, you will learn why this is so.
After reading this lesson, you shall be able to:
distinguish between the different approaches in research;
give examples of each approach; and
discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each approach.
Key terms
Basic research
Applied research
Inductive reasoning
Deductive reasoning
12
often use inductive reasoning and proceed from specific details to general
propositions. For instance, after the investigator has collected evidence
(the weapon used, samples of blood, fingerprints, and other trace
evidence), he learns that the weapon belongs to Juan dela Cruz and the
samples of blood, fingerprints, and other trace evidence match with that
of Juan, the investigator then can speculate that Juan might be the one
who has committed the crime. Note that the investigator begins from
specific details (pieces of evidence) and proceed to a general proposition
(that Juan might have committed the crime).
On the other hand, a criminal prosecutor proceeds in the opposite
way when they prosecute an accused in court. As you have learned from
your criminal procedure class, a prosecutor files an information (a written
allegation) with the court. In this information, he/she alleges that the
accused might have committed the crime. In the trial, the prosecutor rests
on this proposition and try to argue using pieces of evidence that the
accused might be the one who committed the crime. Thus, in trial, he/she
presents evidence just to support his claim. Note that he/she goes from a
general position (that the accused might have committed the crime) and
proceeds to specific details (pieces of evidence) to support the proposition.
Research can also be either inductive or deductive in its approach.
In inductive research, the researcher analyzes data, and out of this
analysis, he/she attempts to build a proposition or a theory. Inductive
research uses some qualitative research methods or quantitative data
mining strategies. In deductive research, the researcher analyzes data to
test a given theory. Researchers often experiment and conduct surveys to
test theories. Looking back to our previous example of the study of Donner
and Jennings (2014), we will find an example of a deductive research. At
the start of their research they had already their proposition from selfcontrol theory that police officers who had low self-control would commit
more police misconduct that those who had high self-control. To test this
theoretical proposition they analyzed survey data on more than one
thousand police officers in Philadelphia. The results support their
proposition.
Quantitative and Qualitative Research
One of the most known dichotomization in research is the
distinction between quantitative and qualitative research. Spotting these
approaches in journal articles is quite easy. Quantitative research uses
numerical data to support or generate propositions, while qualitative
research uses data in words (usually obtained through interviews).
Quantitative research usually employs experiments, surveys, and
secondary analysis from which numerical data are obtained. Qualitative
research, on the other hand, employs case study, phenomenology,
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16
LESSON 2 EXERCISES
Name: ________________________________ Date: ___________ Grade: _______
Go to Google.com. In the search bar, type criminology journal. After
this, search results will show you Criminology journals website hosted
by its publisher, Wiley. Criminology is an interdisciplinary research journal
on crime and justice topics. It is the top research journal in criminology
around the world. Now search its current issue and previous issues,
browse titles of published articles, read their abstracts, and list the titles
of research articles which are examples of
Basic and applied research (5 examples each)
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
Now go to another journal, Journal of Research in Crime and
Delinquency, published by SAGE. Look for and list examples of
Quantitative and qualitative research (5 examples each)
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________
17
References
Agnew, R. (1992). Foundation for a general strain theory of
crime and delinquency. Criminology, 30, 4788.
Akers, R., Krohn, M., Lanza-Kaduce, L. & Radosevich, M. (1979). Social
learning and deviant behavior: A specific test of a general theory.
American Sociological Review, 44(4): 636-655.
Babbie, E. (2001). The practice of social research. Belmont, CA:
Wadsworth
Babu, B.V. & Kar, S.K. (2010). Domestic violence in Eastern India:
Factors associated with victimization and perpetration. Public Health,
124: 136-148.
Champion, D. (1993). Research methods for criminal justice and
criminology. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Dangerous Drugs Board. (2008). Study on the Current Nature and Extent
of Drug Abuse in the Philippines. Retrieved on February 12, 2013, from
http://www.ddb.gov.ph/joomla/images/2008%20National%20Househol
d%20Survey.pdf
Dantzker, M.L. & Hunter, R. (2006). Research methods for criminology
and criminal justice. Sudbury, MA: Jones and Bartlett Publishers, Inc.
Donner, C. & Jennings, W. G. (2014). Low self-control and police
deviance: Applying Gottfredson and Hirschis general theory to officer
misconduct. Police Quarterly, 17(3): 203-225.
Fraenkel, J. & Wallen, N. (2006). How to design and evaluate research in
education. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
Gottfredson, M.R. & Hirschi, T. (1990). A general theory of crime.
Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Kelling, G.L., Pate, A., Diekman, D. & Brown, C. (1974). The Kansas City
Preventive Patrol Experiment: Summary Version. Washington, D.C.: Police
Foundation
Maxfield, M. & Babbie, E. (2005). Research methods for criminal justice and
criminology. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth.
Ysmael, F. (2009). Lumen: A case study on domestic violence. JPAIR
Multidisciplinary Research, 3(1):58-72.
18
PART 2
RESEARCH DESIGN
LESSON 3
INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH DESIGN
It seems that you are familiar now with what is research and the
approaches from which researchers choose. This time, you will learn what
constitute research design and, of course, how to design your own
research. Designing your own research requires you to be careful so that
no time and other resources are wasted. Imagine when a student has
already conducted his study and has already spent much of his time,
energy and money, but when evaluation comes the evaluators just say:
This study was poorly designed; there is a need for a major revision, and
the worst, The researcher must perform his research again with a
different but appropriate design. For a student who has already done his
best, these lines sounds devastating. This is the first lesson in PART 2 that
will help you avoid such situation.
After reading this lesson, you shall be able to:
Key terms
Research design
Exploratory research
Descriptive research
Explanatory research
Units of analysis
Cross-sectional research
Longitudinal research
What is research design?
Research design is the blueprint of your study (Dantzker & Hunter,
2006). When you design a study you specify exactly who or what is to be
studied, when, how, and for what purpose (Babbie, 2001:90). Designing
research requires the researcher to be very specific in what is the general
purpose of the study whether the researcher wants to explore a little
known phenomenon, describes a phenomenon, or explain why such
phenomenon occur (purpose of the study). The researcher must also decide
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20
written. One good example studying this kind of social artifact is the study
of Zaitsu (2010) on bomb threat offenses in Japan. He analyzed
investigative documents containing 101 cases and offenders. Other
examples of social artifacts as units of analysis include cars, motorcycles,
buildings, and streets.
Being aware of your unit of analysis is important to avoid the
ecological fallacy and reductionism in research (Babbie, 2001; Maxfield &
Babbie, 2005). Ecological fallacy occurs when a researcher uses his
findings on the characteristics of groups to explain characteristics of
individuals. For example, when you compare cities in terms of homicide
rates and poverty incidence and you find poorer cities having higher
homicide rates, it is an ecological fallacy to conclude that poor individuals
are violent compared with rich individuals. In this case, you do not really
know who committed the killings in poor cities; it might be possible that
rich individuals are responsible for the large proportion of those killings.
Thus, you can only say that poor cities tend to have higher homicide rates
compared with rich cities.
Likewise, we all know that among the three island groups (Luzon,
Visayas, and Mindanao) in the Philippines, Mindanao has the highest level
of bombing incidence. However, you would commit a fallacy when you
conclude that Dapitan City (a city in Mindanao) has higher bombing
incidence than any city in Metro Manila, Luzon. It is because bombings in
Mindanao are not randomly scattered across all cities in its islands; rather,
bombings are clustered in few cities/municipalities other than Dapitan
(Relatorres et al., 2013).
Aside from ecological fallacy, be careful not to commit its opposite
individualistic fallacy. This fallacy occurs when one generalizes his/her
observation about an individual to groups or organizations. For example,
when one hears from the news that a certain police officer has been found
positive of using dangerous drug, it is a fallacy to generalize and say: I am
afraid to report to the police station drug crimes in my neighborhood
because the police are even involved in drug use.
Another pitfall in research involving units of analysis is
reductionism that occurs when researchers try to disregard other units
of analysis and concepts from other fields. This is sometimes the case for
crime causation because criminology is a multidisciplinary study that
involves researchers from criminology, criminal justice, sociology,
mathematics, biology, economics, chemistry, and political science, to
name a few. Some researchers may limit their focus on what tend to cause
crime. Economist might focus only on cost and benefits (economic
reductionism); biologists might focus on genetic influences (biological
reductionism); and sociologists might focus on cultural factors
24
data are collected at one time only. This limitation is what some
longitudinal studies are trying to fulfill.
Longitudinal studies
Some researchers use data collected through longitudinal studies.
Longitudinal studies collect data from a respondent over a long period of
time or the data cover a long period of time, say 10 or more years (Babbie,
2001; Maxfield & Babbie, 2005). There are three major types of
longitudinal studies trend studies, panel studies, and cohort studies.
Trend studies display the changes of the frequency of an event over
a long period of time. A city mayor, for example, may request a report from
the chief of police to show the crime rate trend in his city to see the overall
picture of crime in terms of 10 or 20 years. Above, we discussed the study
of Sherman et al. (1989) on the spatial distribution of crimes in
Minneapolis for one year; however, this study may suffer from a snapshot
effect. They cannot really tell whether the distribution remains true in a
range of years. To overcome that limitation, Weisburd et al. (2004)
conducted a longitudinal study on crime concentration in Seattle, USA
from 1989 2002. Their study confirmed the earlier findings of Sherman
et al. (1989) that crime are non-random and concentrated in few areas of
the city even up to 14 years.
Criminologists who study causes of crime tend favor longitudinal
panel studies which collect data from the same sample respondents for 2
or more periods of time. For example, Thornberry et al. (1994) used the
data collected by the Rochester Youth Development Study in US to test the
propositions of interactional theory of crime. They used the data collected
in the Wave 2, 3, and 4 of the study. In Wave 2, adolescents were
interviewed in their 8th or 9th grade; in Wave 4, these same adolescents
were interviewed in their 10th grade.
Finally, in cohort studies researchers specific subpopulations, or
cohorts, as they change over time (Babbie, 2001). This type of study is
similar to panel study in which collection of data from respondents are
done in two or more periods. However, one major difference between panel
and cohort studies is that in panel studies researchers collect data from
the same respondent over time; while in cohort studies, researchers collect
from another sample of cohorts and, thus, not necessarily the same
respondents with the first data collection. For instance, if you want to
study a cohort of babies born in Dumaguete City in 2010, you generate a
sample of 500 out of 2000 babies. In 2015, you conduct another data
collection; this time, you generate another 500 five year old children born
in 2010 in the City. Then, you do the same procedure in 2020, 2025, and
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Phenomenology
Another qualitative research that is gaining attention in criminology
is phenomenological research methods. Phenomenology studies several
individuals who have experienced the same phenomenon and attempts to
extract the essence of their lived experience commonly through interviews
(Creswell, 2006). The essence is focuses on the common experiences of
the participants (Creswell, 2006:62). Unlike narrative research which
often studies only one participant, phenomenological researchers conduct
interviews on 5 to 25 respondents. One example of phenomenology is the
study of Narag, Maxwell, & Lee (2013) on 20 participants of a Driving
Under the Influence or Driving While Impaired (DUI/DWI) Court program
in the US. The participants, who had at least two drunk-driving offense
volunteered to undergo the program. By using phenomenological inquiry,
Narag and his colleagues found that the program was effective in reforming
the offenders. The participants viewed generally the program facilitators
as friendly, supporting and caring. These experiences help most
participants to successfully complete the 36-week program.
Grounded theory
There are times, however, when criminologist and criminal justice
researchers want to build a theory based on the views of research
participants. These researchers would need to use grounded theory to
explain processes and actions of the participants. Grounded theory is a
qualitative inquiry that employs interviews and aims to develop a theory
based on the views of several participants. This type of study uses
interviews of 20-60 individuals. Lopez and Emmer (2000) uses grounded
theory in building a theory on delinquent crime contexts upon learning
that theories of delinquency concentrated more on individual differences
as causes of crime and neglected situational precipitators of serious
juvenile offending. To generate the crime contexts that most likely pushed
juveniles to commit serious offenses, they conducted semi-structured
interviews on 24 male juvenile offenders at the Texas Youth Commission.
Participants were asked to recall and share their experiences when they
committed a crime; then additional, probes of 5Ws and 1H were used to
elicit information on the immediate, situational contexts in which
offenders were motivated to commit a serious offense. Grounded theory is
helpful when the researcher wishes to provide a theoretical framework
grounded on participants own views.
31
Ethnography
Sometimes, in order to obtain more in-depth analysis of a
phenomenon, some researchers go beyond snapshot qualitative research
(e.g. narrative, phenomenology, grounded theory) and use ethnographic
research. Ethnography is a qualitative inquiry that describes and
interprets the patterns of a groups culture over time (Creswell, 2006). To
describe the culture of a group, the researcher conducts observation
techniques, interviews, and sometimes, collects other sources of data, for
an extended period of time. One good example is the study of Valdez and
Sifaneck (2004) on Mexican-American gang members in drug markets. Of
course, there is no official list of gang members and gang members are
hard to access for a survey; thus, Valdez and Sifaneck (2004) used
ethnographic research using field observations and interviews. Field work
in their study lasted for four years. In two areas in a US Southwestern city,
two indigenous field workers conducted social mapping for six months to
identify the gangs and the places they frequented. After this, the field
workers entered into the social networks of these gangs. The field workers
then recorded rich information through field notes while conducting field
observations, and later, conducted interviews on known gang members
about their role in drug selling and drug use patterns. Ethnographic
research is appropriate when enough resources are available and
researchers wish to have a more in-depth analysis of a groups culture.
Case study
Finally, some researchers use case study in criminological research.
Case study is a qualitative inquiry on an issue or problem by conducting
in-depth analysis on an individual/s, event, program, or activity (case/s).
Similar to other qualitative research methods, case study researchers use
extensive observations, interviews, and documentary analysis on a case or
cases. To study the problems and challenges facing crime task forces,
Philipps and Orvis (1999) used the intergovernmental relations conceptual
framework in examining East Texas Violent Crime Task Force. They used
semi-structured interviews on members and administrators of the said
task force, and they also gathered and analyzed legal documents and
memoranda concerning the task force. After these, they discussed the
problems and challenges facing crime task forces using the East Texas
Violent Crime Task Force as an example.
Summary
In this lesson, we have learned what the major considerations are
when we design research in criminology and criminal justice. After
deciding our topic of interest, we decide what the purpose of our research
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33
LESSON 3 TUTORIAL
Before you begin Lesson 3 Exercises, familiarize first how to find and
download research articles from Google Scholar. Scholar is a search engine
similar to Youtube (which enable you to search view videos); however,
instead of videos, Scholar enables you to search for academic articles (e.g.
research articles) and books. You just have to type in its search bar the
key words of the research with which you are interested. Please try this
short tutorial; it will help you in the succeeding exercise/s. Note that
Google Chrome browser was used to create this tutorial. Thus, if you can,
use Google Chrome for this tutorial.
1. Go to Google.com.
2. Type Google Scholar and Click Google Scholar.
3. Type in the search bar your query term. For example, self-control
theory crime. Click search button.
34
4. Many items will appear after the search. See for example the results
below. Look at the 2nd item entitled, Criminal victimization and
low self-control: An extension and test of a general theory of crime.
You can see this phrase on its right: [PDF] from researchgate.net.
This phrase indicates that there is a free pdf copy of the research
hosted in researchgates site. Click this phrase and it will be
downloaded.
5. A pdf file will appear just like the one encircled below. Click it once and
save it into your USB device for printing and reading.
35
6. Sometimes the pdf file will automatically open like the one shown
below. Just hover your cursor to the lower right corner of the
screen and these tool bars
will appear. To save the
document, just click the 2nd to the last button.
36
LESSON 3 EXERCISES
Name: ________________________________ Date: ___________ Grade: _______
Now, you are to demonstrate what you have learned in this lesson. Please
list five titles of criminological research articles and describe its research
design by filling out the table below. Use the articles that you have
downloaded using Google Scholar.
Title of research
Purpose of
the study
Unit of
analysis
Time
Research
Dimension method
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
37
References
Babbie, E. (2001). The practice of social research. Belmont, CA:
Wadsworth
Bachman, R. & Schutt, R. (2006). Fundamentals of research in
criminology and criminal justice. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications,
Inc.
Barrera, D.J. (2015). Bomb threats and reports of suspicious items in the
Philippines: Spatial and temporal patterns. Forthcoming in Security
Journal.
Brantingham, P.L. & Brantingham, P.J. (1997). Mapping crime for
analytic purposes: Location quotients, counts, and rates. In D. Weisburd
& T. McEwen (Eds), Crime mapping and crime prevention. Monsey, NY:
Willow Tree Press, Inc.
Creswell, J. (2007). Qualitative inquiry and research design: Choosing
among five approaches. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.
Dantzker, M.L. & Hunter, R. (2006). Research methods for criminology
and criminal justice. Sudbury, MA: Jones and Bartlett Publishers, Inc.
Dangerous Drugs Board. (2008). Study on the Current Nature and Extent
of Drug Abuse in the Philippines. Retrieved on February 12, 2013, from
http://www.ddb.gov.ph/joomla/images/2008%20National%20Househol
d%20Survey.pdf
Dilmon, R. & Timor, U. (2014). The narrative of men who murder their
partners: How reliable is it? International Journal of Offender Therapy and
Comparative Criminology, 58(10): 1125-1149.
Fraenkel, J. & Wallen, N. (2006). How to design and evaluate research in
education. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
Gottfredson, M.R. & Hirschi, T. (1990). A general theory of crime.
Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Greenwood, P. & Petersilia, J. (1975). The criminal investigation process.
The Rand Corporation.
Hartwig, M. Granhag, P.A., Strmwall, L. & Vrij, A. (2004). Police officers
lie detection accuracy. Police Quarterly, 7(4): 429-456.
38
40
LESSON 4
FORMULATING THE PROBLEM
After successfully learning major considerations when we design
research, let us embark on the steps in the research process. We outlined
the major steps in conducting research in Lesson 1. We start doing
research by defining our research problem. Next, we design our research
to answer our problem. After carefully contemplating on how to execute
our inquiry, we then proceed to collect, analyze and interpret the data we
need. Finally, we write a journal article to let others know the research
problem we successfully solve. To start, we shall now learn how to
formulate our research problem the most important step in research.
After reading this lesson, you shall be able to:
Key terms
Area of interest
Frame of reference
Topic
Research problem
Research question
Hypothesis
41
Frame of reference
Unit of analysis
Environmental
criminology, Rational
choice perspective
Person
Decision-making of offenders
Streets
Neighborhoods
Criminal
etiology
Criminal sociology
Cities
Groups (Gangs)
Persons
Policing
strategy
Social disorganization,
collective efficacy, fear of crime,
social disorder and crime, and
crime rates
Social disorganization,
collective efficacy, and crime
rates
Subculture, social learning
Strain, social control, parenting
and crime
Genes and crime, exposure to
chemicals and crime, diet and
crime
Aggression, self-control,
personality and crime
Biological/chemical
criminology
Persons
Psychological
criminology
Persons
Deterrence
Neighborhoods,
streets
Community relations
Neighborhoods
Community policing,
neighborhood watch
Problem-oriented
Zero-tolerance
Neighborhood,
streets
Neighborhoods,
streets
Persons
Community-based
Rehabilita
tion
Formal
organizations
Persons
Institutional based
Formal
organizations
Persons
Restorative justice
Formal
Organization
Judiciary
Retributive justice
Persons
Organizations
Problem-oriented policing,
Broken windows policing
Characteristics of probationers,
recidivism
Parole and probation
management
Recidivism of offenders, job
burn out of prison staff, morale
Prison population and violent
disorders, prison morale
Mediation, conciliation,
arbitration of offenders and
victims
Barangay justice system
Judges decisions, plea
bargaining between the
accused and offended party
Speed of trial of different courts
42
Questions 9 & 10. These questions can be answered using the social
structure perspective (social disorganization theory).
45
Frame of reference
Unit of analysis
Environmental
criminology, Rational
choice perspective
Person
Streets/specific
address
Decision-making of offenders
Hot spots/hot times of crime,
hot products
Social disorganization,
collective efficacy, fear of
crime, social disorder and
crime, and crime rates
Social disorganization,
collective efficacy, and crime
rates
Subculture, social learning
Strain, social control,
parenting and crime
Neighborhoods
Criminal
etiology
Criminal sociology
Cities
Groups (Gangs)
Persons
B. Explanatory research
This time, let us turn our attention to problem statements of
explanatory research. Assume that you are interested in explaining police
misconduct. Your broad question is: Why do some police officers commit
police misconduct or deviance? You might have a few hunches on the
answers to this question, and might think that termination of these officers
is the easiest and best solution. But as we know, prevention is better than
cure. Thus, it is important to determine in advance who are at risk of
committing police deviance. With this, police managers can anticipate on
police misconduct prevention programs.
This is an interesting but complex question. As you read the
literature especially previous research on police misconduct, you will
discover that previous researchers used different frames of reference or
perspectives in explaining why some are involved in police deviance. Using
one frame of reference, however, can provide focus on your investigation,
(and of course can lighten your load). See Table 3 for some frames of
reference on our current area of interest police misconduct. (Note that
this not an exhaustive list).
Suppose that you choose the individual level frame of reference.
Implications of this choice are: You will study persons as units of analysis
(police officers), and you will explain police misconduct using police
officers characteristics and attitudes.
Suppose again that after reading the literature, you discover that
previous studies already focused on some offender characteristics (e.g.
age, education, training, and experience) and if you do the same, your topic
might be overdone. However, you have found that no study has yet used
47
Frame of reference
Organizational level
Police
misconduct
Unit of
analysis
Formal
organizations
Situational level
Persons
Individual level
Persons
Neighborhood level
Neighborhoods
influence
individual-level
police
49
51
LESSON 4 EXERCISES
Name: ________________________________ Date: ___________ Grade: _______
1. Go to Google Scholar and search for the article, Attitudes toward
the police: The effects of direct and vicarious experience. Read
the article and identity the
1.1 Problem statement
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
1.2 Research question/s
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
1.2 Hypotheses
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
52
53
References
Booth, W., Colomb, G. & Williams, J. (2003). The craft of research. Chicago:
The University of Chicago.
Champion, D. (1993). Research methods for criminal justice and
criminology. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Dantzker, M.L. & Hunter, R. (2006). Research methods for criminology
and criminal justice. Sudbury, MA: Jones and Bartlett Publishers, Inc.
de Guzman, M. (2007). Integrity of civilian review: A contemporary analysis
of complainants and police officers views in the Philippines. Police Practice
and Research, 8(1): 31-45.
Donner, C. & Jennings, W. G. (2014). Low self-control and police
deviance: Applying Gottfredson and Hirschis general theory to officer
misconduct. Police Quarterly, 17(3): 203-225.
Fraenkel, J. & Wallen, N. (2006). How to design and evaluate research in
education. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
Hancock, P. & Raeside, R. (2009). Modeling factors central to recidivism:
An investigation of sentence management in Scottish Prison Service. The
Prison Journal, 89(1): 99-118.
Hickman, M., Fricas, J., Strom, K. & Pope, M. (2011). Mapping police
stress. Police quarterly, 14(3): 227-250.
Kothari, C.R. (2004). Research methodology: Methods and techniques.
Daryaganj, New Delhi: New Age International (P) Ltd., Publishers.
Manis, J., Archbold, C. & Hassell, K. (2008). Exploring the impact of
police officer education level on allegations of police misconduct.
International Journal of Police Science and Management, 10(4): 509-523.
Pyrczak, F. & Bruce, R. (1992). Writing empirical research reports: A basic
guide for students of the social and behavioral sciences. Los Angeles, CA:
Pyrczak Publishing.
Pyrooz, D. (2012). Structural covariates of gang homicide in large U.S.
cities. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 49(4): 489-518.
Sherman, L., Gartin, P. & Buerger, M. (1989). Hot spots of predatory
crime: Routine activities and the criminology of place. Criminology, 27(1):
27-55.
54
Sun, I., Payne, B. & Wu, Y. (2008). The impact of situational factors,
officer characteristics, and neighborhood context on police behavior: A
multilevel analysis. Journal of Criminal Justice, 36: 22-32.
Townsley, M., Johnson, S. & Ratcliffe, J. (2008). Space time dynamics of
insurgent activity in Iraq. Security Journal, 21(3), 139-146.
Weisburd, D., Bushway, S., Lum, C. & Yang, S. (2004). Trajectories of
crime at places: A longitudinal study of street segments in the city of
Seattle. Criminology, 42(2): 283-321.
55
LESSON 5
MEASUREMENT OF VARIABLES
After defining your problem, you shall now learn how to measure
variables you use to formulate your question. In criminology and criminal
justice, this is most of the time hard and complex unlike in the natural
sciences. In physics, for example, chemists can accurately and
consistently measure the weight, height, and width of an object. But in
criminology, we wonder how we can measure crime, self-control, strain,
burnout, satisfaction, fear of crime, and other variables of interest
accurately and consistently. Our ability to accurately and consistently
measure these variable is important because the empirical findings that
feed theoretical growth can hinge on how attentive we are to measurement
(Sullivan & McGloin, 2014: 448). This lesson will help you define and
measure variables to facilitate quantification and statistical analysis in
criminology and criminal justice.
After this reading this lesson, you shall be able to:
Key terms
Variables
Attributes
Index
Scale
Attributes
Female, Male
0, 1, 2, 3, 4 years
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th year level
15, 30, 65, 90, 100, 115, 120, 160, 195 . . .
High 24 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Low (reverse coded)
None, 1 crime, 2 crimes, 3 crimes . . .
56
Kindly take a look at Table 4 again, what do you notice among the
variables? In what way do they differ? They differ in terms of the rank and
distance among their attributes. For instance, in terms of rank: female and
male cannot be ranked (no sex is higher than the other), while 1 year old
and 5 years old children can be ranked (a 5 year old child is older than the
1 year old). In terms of distance: female and male have no distance (since
they have no rank), while a 5 year old child is 4 years older than the 1 year
old (we can measure the distance which is 4 years). Because of these
differences, variables can then be divided into types, as follows (Babbie,
2001; Bachman & Schutt, 2006; Dantzker & Hunter, 2006):
Nominal measure
committed)
Commission
of
crime
(committed,
not
Nominal
Ordinal
Interval
Ratio
police deviant behavior. But what did they mean about self-control? How
about police misconduct? How could they measure self-control and police
misconduct? How would they find out if a police officer has high or low
level of self-control and police misconduct?
Table 6. An illustration of the relationship between a research problem,
question, hypothesis, and variables in explanatory research.
Problem
statement
Research
question
Hypothesis
Dependent variable
Self-control
Police misconduct
Variables
to measure this intangible variable. Table 7 and 8 show the two types of
measures used by previous researchers to measure self-control.
Measuring self-control using a scale
The most commonly used scale to measure self-control in
criminological studies is the scale created by Grasmick et al. (1993). They
used 24 items to measure self-control following Gottfredson and Hirschis
(1990) definition. These items were subdivided into 6 dimensions, and
each dimension was measured by four items (see Table 7). Their scale is
an example of a Likert scale (one of the most popular scaling techniques
in criminology). There are, however, other useful scaling techniques for the
social sciences. See Babbie (2001) for an excellent overview of these
techniques.
Table 7. Self-control attitudinal scale.
Self-control Attitudinal Scale
(Grasmick et al., 1993)
Dimensions
Impulsivity
Simple tasks
Risk seeking
Attitudinal Indicators
I dont devote much thought
and effort to preparing for the
future.
I often do whatever brings me
pleasure here and now, even
at the cost of some distant
goal.
Im more concerned about
what happens to me in the
short run than in the long
run.
I much prefer doing things
that pay off right away rather
than in the future.
I frequently try to avoid
things that I know will be
difficult.
When things get complicated,
I tend to quit or withdraw.
The things in life that are
easiest to do bring me the
most pleasure.
I dislike really hard tasks
that stretch my abilities to
the limit.
I like to test myself every now
and then by doing something
a little risky.
Strongly
agree
(4)
Agree
somewhat
(3)
Disagree
somewhat
(2)
Strongly
disagree
(1)
61
Physical
activities
Self-centered
Temper
62
No
(0)
Yes
(1)
63
Donner and Jennings (2014) used 9 items to construct their selfcontrol index. Note that these items are behavioral indicators. Thus, their
study implies that we can measure self-control by observing or asking the
police officers current and present behaviors. If they acted in one of the
nine items, that is an indicator of low self-control. This is similar to our
earlier example on measuring friendliness by observing behaviors.
Again, we will assume that a police officer has done some of the
items in the index as indicated in Table 8. He/she is scored 1 if he acted
one item; 9, if all items. Thus, the possible score for this index range from
0 to 9. With the current example, this hypothetical respondent scores 6 on
this index.
How can I measure crime?
We have already addressed how to measure intangible variables.
Now, we will learn how to measure crime the most important variable in
criminology and criminal justice. Over the years, criminologists have used
several techniques to measure crime and each has its own purpose and,
of course, weaknesses (Maxfield & Babbie, 2005; Sullivan & McGloin,
2014). In this subsection, we will focus on the ways to measure crime. At
the outset, the researcher must consider the following before choosing a
particular measure of crime (Maxfield & Babbie, 2001):
Purpose of the measurement
Consider whether your measurement is for monitoring crime levels,
agency accountability, or research.
Type of crime
You should decide what crime to include in you measure (Violent
crime or property crime? If property crimes, what property crimes,
robbery, theft, motor vehicle theft?)
Units of analysis
Finally, you should consider your unit of analysis (Persons,
organizations, groups, or social artifacts?)
Once you have considered all these three important preferences, you
can then decide how to measure crime. Perhaps, when you are asked how
many crime there are in your city/municipality, you would point your
citys police station as the source. But, this is not the sole source of
information on the number of crimes.
Crimes can be measure in several ways through reported crimes,
victimization surveys, and self-report surveys of offending (Maxfield &
64
Babbie, 2005). Each of these measures have its own limitations and
appropriate use.
Reported crimes
Reported crimes are often used when researchers study places as
units of analysis streets, neighborhoods, cities, provinces, and countries.
In the Philippines, the most commonly used information about the
frequency of crimes are reported crimes. These data come from two main
sources: citizen reports and police observations. They are collected and
stored by several law enforcement agencies in the country. But most of
these data can be found in the National Crime Reporting System (NCRS)
of the Philippine National Police (PNP). The NCRS is an incident-based
reporting system. That is, each record contains one incident that may have
one or more offender, victim, and crime or offense. Before using these data,
the analyst must first disaggregate the different crimes committed in one
incident.
One major limitation of this measure, however, is what
criminologists call as the dark figure. Dark figure pertains to citizens
unreported crimes or crimes on which the police failed to observe (Winslow
& Zhang, 2008). Citizens tend to ignore light felonies and offenses. Thus,
most of these crimes are not reported to the police. Also, police officers are
not omnipresent; thus, they failed to observe all crimes, especially those
highly clandestine crimes and offenses such as drug crimes. Another
limitation is the quality of the data recorded. There had been no strict and
clear protocols in the PNP on what incidents were to be recorded in the
NCRS. Moreover, the PNP itself discovered that some chiefs of police distort
their crime rates just to portray good image that less crimes occur in their
jurisdictions (Elona, 2013). Fortunately, as of the time of this writing, the
PNP is auditing and upgrading its NCRS in all police stations around the
country to improve the recording of crime incidents.
The strength of the PNP NCRS, however, lies in some reported
serious crimes, for example homicide and murder for crimes against
persons and motor vehicle theft for crimes against property. A homicide is
likely reported to the police because of its inherent seriousness. While,
citizens cannot afford to just keep quiet when their prized motor vehicles
are stolen.
Reported crimes are often used by the authorities to describe the
crime situation of the country and of other geographical units from
Philippine regions to barangays. They do this through crime rates. A crime
rate is a relative measure of crime risk per a geographic units total
population. It is computed using the following formula (Champion, 1993):
65
Crime rate =
Number of crimes
Population
100,000.
90 Homicide cases
125,000
100,000
We should add that not all criminals and victims reside in a particular city
where the crimes occur.
In view of these limitations, some researchers offer some alternatives
which they believe could overcome these biases. One alternative is crime
density that measures the relative risk of crime occurrence across space
by dividing the count of crimes by the size of the geographic unit where
these crimes occur (see Zhang & Peterson, 2007 for details). Another is the
location quotients of crimes which are relative measures of crimes that
show how a specific area varies from general trends (Brantingham &
Brantingham, 1997: 273).
Victimization surveys
We pointed out earlier that reported crimes undercount less serious
offenses that citizens are reluctant to report and those offenses that the
police fails to observe. Victimization surveys were devised to overcome
these limitations. These surveys take a sample of the population and ask
this sample of individuals their crime victimization experiences. With this,
policy makers are guided with a more comprehensive measure of crime.
Also, victimization surveys are often used when criminologists study
persons (victims) as units of analysis to test theories of victimization.
However, there are times when victimization experiences are aggregated to
larger units like cities and countries (see e.g., Van Dijk, Van Kesteren &
Smit, 2007).
In the Philippines, however, this is seldom done, and there is no
current national crime victimization survey in the country. Some of the
most popular large scale victimization surveys in other countries include
the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) in the US (Maxfield &
Babbie, 2005) and the International Crime Victimization Survey (ICVS) in
some industrialized countries in Europe, America, Asia, Australia, and
Africa (Van Dijk, Van Kesteren & Smit, 2007). These surveys were aimed
at monitoring victimization rates in several countries as an alternative to
crime rates. Aside from this, some researchers also conduct small-scale
surveys in cities and schools for monitoring and research purposes, for
example Mustaine and Tewksbury (1998) who surveyed some US college
students and found that victimization risk was related to the
characteristics of neighborhoods where they went and what they did there.
Victimization surveys are also limited in some aspects (Maxfield &
Babbie, 2005). Victims of consummated homicide and murder could not
be included in the survey. (Of course, they are already dead!). Likewise,
victimless crimes (e.g. drug crimes, prostitution, and gambling) could not
be captured by these surveys. You cannot ask a person if he has been a
victim of victimless crime, say, prostitution.
67
Sample of questions:
The following questions were taken from the ICVS 2004-2005
questionnaire (Van Dijk, Van Kesteren & Smit, 2007). This is an example
on how to ask respondents for their victimization experiences.
Q100. First of all, you mentioned the theft of a car. When did
this happen? Was this . . .
This year
Last year, in 2004
Before then
Dont know/cant remember
Q101. How often did it happen in 2004?
Once
Twice
Three times
Four times
Five times or more
Dont know
Self-report surveys of offending
To overcome the limitations associated with reported crimes and
victimization surveys, criminologists devised self-report surveys of
offending. These surveys ask a sample from a population to report their
past offending behaviors through filling out a questionnaire. This measure
is commonly used by criminologists who study persons (offenders) as units
of analysis. According to Maxfield and Babbie (2005:159), these surveys
are probably the best method for trying to measure certain crimes that
are poorly represented by other techniques. In addition, self-report survey
is most dominant method to collect data used by criminologists to explain
criminal behavior (OBrien, 1985, quoted by Maxfield & Babbie, 2005).
This is partly because most theories in crime explain variation of criminal
behaviors across persons as units of analysis.
Remember that reported crimes undercount less serious crimes and
police unobserved offenses. While, victimization surveys exclude victimless
crimes. Self-report survey is the method that could overcome these
limitations. However, the nature of this method raises some important
concerns (Maxfield & Babbie, 2005). It could be that offenders are
reluctant to report their past crimes or offenses because of social
desirability issues. Or, offenders may suffer from recall issues, especially
chronic offenders who have committed large number of offenses.
68
69
Note, however, that this suggestion still needs further research on the
validity and reliability of these measures.
Table 9. Suggested methods of measuring crime.
Units of analysis
Persons
(offenders, victims)
Offenses
Measures of crime
Purpose
Based on
victimization
survey, self-report
survey of offending
Research,
monitoring
Groups
(streets, barangays, cities)
Serious offenses
(homicide, murder),
volume crimes (theft,
robbery)
Groups
(gangs)
Serious and
less serious
crimes
Monitoring, research
Research
Dependent variable
Age
Gender
Delinquency
Family
income
Self-control
70
2.
Gender:
Male
3.
Female
This time, I want you state your degree of agreement to each of the following items. Please
place a check mark () in the box that corresponds to your answer.
Items
4.
5.
I often do whatever
brings me pleasure here
and now, even at the cost
of some distant goal.
6.
Im more concerned
about what happens to
me in the short run than
in the long run.
7.
Strongly
agree
Agree
somewhat
Disagree
somewhat
Strongly
disagree
71
8.
9.
72
Never
HAVE YOU EVER . . .
One
time
2 to 3
times
4 to 6
times
More
than 6
times
Note: Items on self-control are from Grasmick et al. (1993); the items on delinquency are
from Vazsonyi & Belliston (2007).
73
Summary
Unlike in the natural sciences, measurement of variables in
criminology and criminal justice is not straightforward, complex, and often
debated. Especially, these issues occur when criminologists measure
intangible attitudes and traits of persons and, of course, the most
important dependent variable in criminology crime. These issues,
however, can be mitigated by using indices and scales to measure
intangible variables and using each of the methods of measuring crime
according to when each of the methods best measure a particular offense.
It should be noted that none of the measures can completely measure
crime; it just depends on the purpose, type of offense, and units of analysis
in a particular research project. Finally, it is important to think of your
research problem, questions, and variables when constructing your
questionnaire; and attempt to construct the most valid and reliable
questions in measuring these variables.
74
LESSON 5 EXERCISES
Name: ________________________________ Date: ___________ Grade: _______
1. Sex
Male = 1
Female = 0
Nominal
2.
3.
4.
5.
Independent
variables
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
75
References
Babbie, E. (2001). The practice of social research. Belmont, CA:
Wadsworth
Bachman, R. & Schutt, R. (2006). Fundamentals of research in
criminology and criminal justice. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications,
Inc.
Brantingham, P.L. & Brantingham, P.J. (1997). Mapping crime for
analytic purposes: Location quotients, counts, and rates. In D. Weisburd
& T. McEwen (Eds), Crime mapping and crime prevention. Monsey, NY:
Willow Tree Press, Inc.
Dantzker, M.L. & Hunter, R. (2006). Research methods for criminology
and criminal justice. Sudbury, MA: Jones and Bartlett Publishers, Inc.
Dangerous Drugs Board. (2008). Study on the Current Nature and Extent
of Drug Abuse in the Philippines. Retrieved on February 12, 2013, from
http://www.ddb.gov.ph/joomla/images/2008%20National%20Househol
d%20Survey.pdf
Donner, C. & Jennings, W. G. (2014). Low self-control and police
deviance: Applying Gottfredson and Hirschis general theory to officer
misconduct. Police Quarterly, 17(3): 203-225.
Fraenkel, J. & Wallen, N. (2006). How to design and evaluate research in
education. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
Gottfredson, M.R. & Hirschi, T. (1990). A general theory of crime.
Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Grasmick, H., Tittle, C., Bursik, R. Jr., & Arneklev, B. (1993). Testing the
core empirical implications of Gottfredson and Hirschis general theory of
crime. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 30(1): 5-29.
Maxfield, M. & Babbie, E. (2005). Research methods for criminal justice and
criminology. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth.
Mustaine, E.E. & Tewksbury, R. (1998). Predicting risk of larceny theft
victimization: A routine activity analysis using refined lifestyle measures.
Criminology, 36(4): 829-857.
Sullivan, C. & McGloin, J.M. (2014). Looking back to move forward:
Some thoughts on measuring crime and delinquency over the past 50
years. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 51(4): 445-466.
76
Van Dijk, J., Van Kesteren, J. & Smit, P. (2007). Criminal victimization in
international perspective: Key findings from the 2004-2005 ICVS and EU
ICS. Wetenschappelijk Onderzoeken Documentatiecentrum.
Vazsonyi, A. & Belliston, L. (2007). The family, low self-control, deviance:
A cross-cultural and cross-national test of self-control theory. Criminal
Justice and Behavior, 34(4): 505-530.
Winslow, R. & Zhang, S. (2008). Criminology: A global perspective. Upper
Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
77
LESSON 6
SURVEY SAMPLING
In the previous lesson, you learned how to measure the key variables
and construct questionnaire in your study. In this lesson, you will learn
how to systematically collect the data for a survey research. Specifically, I
will introduce you to survey sampling.
After this reading this lesson, you shall be able to:
Key terms
Census
Survey
Population
Sample
Probability sampling
Non-probability sampling
80
that you can also use other online sample calculator such as that of the
Australian National Statistical Service (2015).
Power Analysis
Another method to calculate the sufficient number of samples in a
research study is power analysis pioneered by Cohen (1992). Actually,
calculating the sample size is just one of the three uses of power analysis
in research projects a priori, post-hoc, and compromise power analysis
(see Mayr et al., 2007 for an introduction and tutorials). Of these three
power analyses, a priori analysis is the most ideal because it calculates the
sufficient sample size before any study is conducted, thereby controlling
the power of the hypothesis test that the researcher wishes to conduct
(Mayr et al., 2007). The power of the hypothesis test corresponds to the
number of units included in the sample. Note that too much sample units
leads to false rejection of the null hypothesis (Type I error); too less sample
units leads to false acceptance of the null hypothesis (Type II error). To
guard against these errors, the researcher can specify beforehand the
sufficient number of sample units through a priori power analysis. Here
we will demonstrate this analysis through the use of the power analysis
software GPower 3 (Faul et al., 2007). This software is freely available
online and can run on your laptop or personal computer.
Again, let us go back to our previous example with self-control, age,
gender, and family income as independent variables and delinquency as
dependent variable. Assume that we will use multiple regression analysis
to determine the effects of the four independent variables on delinquency.
To determine the sufficient sample size, we can follow these steps:
Step 1. Go to your web browser again and search for the download page
of GPower 3. Download the software and install it on your computer.
Step 2. After the installation, double click the GPower icon to run the
program.
Step 3. Once the GPower interface is displayed, you can now specify the
parameters needed for a priori analysis. Let the
82
Step 4. Now set the Input Parameters to the following and click
Calculate:
Effect size f
err prob
Power (1- err prob)
Number of predictors
=
=
=
=
0.15
0.05
0.95
4
Note: In multiple regression, the researcher can choose among three effect
sizes suggested by Cohen (1992) small (0.02), medium (0.15), and large
(0.35). This time, we will use medium effect size. The err prob represents
the error we wish to tolerate if our statistical test rejects the null
hypothesis. We set this to 0.05 error. If our statistical test indeed yields
exactly 0.05 error. We can say then that there is 5% chance that we did
not really find an effect of the independent variable (e.g. self-control) on
the dependent variable (delinquency). There reverse is: There is 95%
chance that the independent variable indeed affects the dependent
variable. Power represents the probability of finding an effect and thereby
rejecting the null hypothesis. Note that we cannot set this to perfect 1 (or
100% chance) or else we would suffer Type I error, nor we can set this
lower than 0.80 power or else we would suffer Type II error. Number of
predictors represents the number of independent variables which, in this
example, equals to 4.
The result (sample size = 129) of this analysis is shown in Figure 3.
85
Step 2. We will randomize the selection of the first random number. Find
any Philippine paper money bill in your wallet. Mine is a PhP 20.00 bill
with serial number, AY680511. The first number in this serial number is
6. So we will start with the 6th column with the 1st random number of
54876 (see Figure 5). Remember that we need to choose 800 officers out
of 10,000. Since the total number of police officers is 10,000, we will use
all 5 digits of all numbers in the 6th column as reference. (Note that if the
total number of population is smaller than 10,000, say, 1,000, we will only
use the 1st four digits of 54876 which is 5487.) Going back to our example,
the first random number (i.e. 54876) meets our 5-digit criterion; however,
there is no 54876th respondent in our list of officers. There are only up to
10,000th officer, so we will skip this number and proceed to the one below
it which is 24,037. Still this number does not corresponds to any of our
respondent. The next number is 02560. Now, if we would go to our list of
police officers, we could find a 2,560th officer out of 10,000. So we pick this
officer as our first respondent. Finding another respondent follows the
same process until we arrive with a sample of 800 respondents. However,
if you reach the bottom of the random numbers table and you have not yet
completed the required 800 respondents, you can go back to the 8th
column corresponding to the 2nd number of the serial number (i.e.
AY680511) of our PhP 20.00 money bill, and follow the same selection
process.
Systematic sampling
Systematic sampling is a popular alternative to simple random
sampling. It affords the ease and efficiency in selecting the elements of the
sample, and is sometimes called as pseudo-random selection (Kish,
1965: 113). It consists of these steps:
(1) conducting a random start, and
(2) selecting every kth element of the population after Step 1.
These steps also afford every element in the population to have an
equal probability of being selected for the study. One important tool in this
selection process is the sample interval (Babbie, 2001; Kish, 1965). The
selection interval is the distance of next element from the previously
selected element; and thus, determines what elements are chosen
systematically. We will illustrate the steps in systematic sampling below:
Step 1. Determine the total number of population elements. In this
example, we assume that we have a 10,000 total population of police
offices in Region VII.
Step 2. Determine the total number of sample elements. We will assume
that we need, for this example, 1,000 police officers.
Step 3. Find the selection interval by using 1,000 to divide 10,000, as
shown below:
Selection interval =
10,000
1,000
= 10.
As shown, our selection interval is 10. Thus, every 10th element of the
population will be selected.
Step 4. Create a random start among the first 10 police officers. To do
this, you can follow the process we used in our simple random sample
illustration. If we have randomly selected the 2nd column of the random
numbers table above, the number 05 (i.e. the 5th police officer in our
population frame) will be our first element in the sample.
Step 5. Select the next police officer by just adding 10 to 5 (see Figure 6).
The sum would be 15; thus, the 15th officer in our list will be the next
sample element. Do this process of addition until you have already selected
1,000 officers.
87
stratum. For example, among all police officers in the Philippines, Senior
Police Officers constitute 30% of all officers; thus, in the sample, there
must also be 30% Senior Police Officers. We will illustrate a simple process
of arriving at a stratified sample in the following steps:
Step 1. Assume again that we want to conduct a survey of police officers
in Region VII with 10,000 police officers, comprising 7,000 Police Officers
(70%), 2,500 Senior Police Officers (25%), 450 Police Inspectors (4.5%),
and 50 Police Superintendents (0.5%). Then, we have arrived with a
desired sample of 1,000 officers.
Step 2. Let us make sure that the proportion of ranks of the1,000 sample
of police officers must be relatively proportionate to the proportion of ranks
of the population of 10,000 police officers in the region. To do this, we will
perform simple mathematics by multiplying 1,000 with the different
percentages of ranks in the populations. For instance, Senior Police
Officers comprise 25% of all 10,000 police officers; thus, we shall multiply
1,000 with 25% or 0.25, and derive 250 Senior Police Officers, as
illustrated below:
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
x
x
x
x
list, for example all residents in Dumaguete City (Babbie, 2001; Kish,
1965). Previous probability sampling methods we have discussed are
conducted in one-stage only (i.e. we only select sample units once). In
multistage cluster sampling, we select sample units twice, thrice, or more
at different stages or units of analysis.
Going back to our lessons on units of analysis, a researcher has the
freedom what unit of analysis he/she is to study, whether at the regions,
provinces,
municipalities/cities,
barangays,
barangay
puroks,
dwellings/houses, residents (see Figure 7). In multistage cluster sampling,
he/chooses sampling units at different stages. For example, if he/she
wishes to survey some attitudes of all residents in the Province of Negros
Oriental, he/she is to:
Step 1. Divide Negros Oriental into clusters, for example,
municipalities/cities. Use either of the probability sampling methods we
have discussed (whichever is most ideal) to select the cities/municipalities
to survey.
Step 3. Divide these cities/municipalities into clusters of barangays, and
use again either of the probability sampling methods we have discussed
(whichever is most ideal) to select what barangays to survey.
Step 4. Divide these barangays into barangay puroks (villages) and select
what villages to study.
Step 5. List the houses/dwellings in the selected puroks/villages, and use
simple random sampling or systematic sampling to select the dwellings.
Step 6. Upon the survey, randomly select the occupant of the
house/dwelling who is going to be the respondent of the study.
Philippines
Regions
Provinces
Municipalities/Cities
Barangays
Puroks
Dwellings/Houses
Residents
the experiences of battered wives who did not report their victimization to
the police station.
Snowball sampling
Sometimes, however, target respondents are hard to access using
the nonprobability sampling methods described above. This is especially
true when the phenomenon of interest is highly sensitive and secretive, for
example, drug abuse or drug pushing. Even though some drug users and
traffickers are incarcerated, research results based on information from
these respondents are limited since there are still those who are
unincarcerated who may have different answers to our research questions.
However, population frame of all current unincarcerated drug traffickers
or drug abusers is unavailable. But it is important for us to learn some
things about these individuals for theoretical and policy-making purposes.
One remedy to this problem is the use of snowball sampling. With
this sampling method, the researcher first approaches a known
respondent who has experienced the researchers phenomenon of interest,
say, drug trafficking. The researcher then builds rapport with this drug
trafficker and make him as the studys first informant. After collecting
information from this respondent, the researcher then asks him to point
out another drug trafficker he knows. The researcher then interviews this
second drug trafficker and asks him another drug trafficker to interview.
The process continues until the researcher arrives at his desired number
of respondents or no other trafficker is pointed out.
Quota sampling
This sampling method is considered as the nonprobability
samplings equivalent of probability samplings stratified sampling method
(Bailey, 1978 cited in Cohen, Manion & Morrison, 2007). The researcher
attempts to obtain samples representing the proportion of population
elements in strata. One major difference, however, between quota
sampling and stratified sampling is the method of sample selection. Quota
sampling does not use probability sampling method (e.g. simple random
sampling and systematic sampling) in selecting sample elements; instead
it uses convenience sampling or purposive sampling. Thus, to perform
quota sampling, just follow Step 1 and Step 2 of the steps (except Step 3)
in stratified sampling method illustrated above. Then, perform
convenience sampling or purposive sampling.
92
Summary
In this lesson, we have learned how to determine the desired sample
size and the sample selection process of quantitative and qualitative
research. Quantitative researchers can use at least two methods of sample
size calculation interval estimation and power analysis. While, qualitative
researchers (facing several constraints) can use rules of thumb in
determining sample sizes. Moreover, there are two types of sampling
methods probability and nonprobability sampling. The most commonly
used probability sampling methods are simple random sampling,
systematic sampling, stratified sampling, and multistage cluster sampling.
All of these methods attempt to obtain a representative sample from the
population. It should be noted that none of these methods is better than
the other; it just depends on the research problem and the design of the
study. On the other hand, nonprobability sampling methods include
convenience sampling, purposive sampling, snowball sampling, and quota
sampling. Although these methods do not result to representative samples,
they are best when the researcher plans to conduct qualitative research.
93
LESSON 6 EXERCISES
Name: ________________________________ Date: ___________ Grade: _______
1. Using what you have learned from Interval estimation in sample size
determination, calculate the sample size needed for each of the
following items:
Confidence
level
1. 95%
2. 99%
3. 99%
4. 95%
5. 95%
Confidence
Interval
3
5
10
5
3
Population
Sample size
120,000
112,546
201,768
323,124
102,093
2. Find a real population frame, for example list of all police officers in
a station, list of all jail officers in a jail, list of all personnel in a
company, or list of students in a class. Generate a random sample
of 25% out of all persons listed in the population frame. Use RANDs
A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates. Download
it from RANDs site:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1418.html
Submit your random population frame and random sample
generated.
References
Babbie, E. (2001). The practice of social research. Belmont, CA:
Wadsworth
Cohen, J. (1992). A power primer. Psychological Bulletin, 112(1): 155-159.
Cohen, L., Manion, L. & Morrison, K. (2007). Research methods in
education. New York, NY: Routledge.
Creative Research Systems (2015). Sample Size Calculator. Retrieved on
January 22, 2015, from http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm#two
Creswell, J. (2007). Qualitative inquiry and research design: Choosing
among five approaches. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.
Faul, F., Erdfelder, E., Lang, A.G., & Buchner, A. (2007). G*Power 3: A
flexible statistical power analysis program for the social, behavioral, and
biomedical sciences. Behavioral Research Methods, 39, 175-191.
Kish, L. (1965). Survey sampling. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Kothari, C.R. (2004). Research methodology: Methods and techniques.
Daryaganj, New Delhi: New Age International (P) Ltd., Publishers.
Mayr, S. Erdfelder, E., Buchner, A. & Faul, F. (2007). A short tutorial of
GPower. Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology, 3(2): 51-59.
National Statistical Service Australia. (2015). Sample Size Calculator
example using stratified random sampling. Retrieved on January 22,
2015, from
http://www.nss.gov.au/nss/home.NSF/pages/Sample+Size+Calculator+
Stratification+Examples?opendocument
RAND Corporation. (2001). A million random digits with 100,000 normal
deviates. Santa Monica, CA: RAND. Retrieved on June 3, 2013, from
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1418.html
95
LESSON 7
DATA ANALYSIS
After collecting the data you need to answer your research problem,
it is now time to summarize the data through statistical analysis. In this
lesson, you are expected to familiarize the use of some basic and advanced
statistical routines that you can use in summarizing complex data sets.
There is no need, however, to be a mathematician or an expert statistician
in order to apply statistical routines for research purposes. As Padua
(2000) posits, a student of research statistics do not need to conduct
algebraic calculation. One just needs to be familiar with the underlying
assumptions of a statistical technique and how to interpret the statistical
outputs or results. To make our statistical calculations easier and faster,
we shall take advantage of easy-to-use, point-and-click programs (i.e.
Minitab and Excel).
After reading this lesson, you shall be able to perform the following:
Key terms
Univariate statistics
Bivariate statistics
Multivariate statistics
Statistical software
Numerous statistical programs (both free and proprietary) are
available that could make our calculations easier and faster. Of these
programs, the most easy-to-use are point-and-click programs that works
like Microsoft Word and Excel include SPSS, Minitab, and some free
software which are available for download from the internet, for example
the program Tanagra. Perhaps, the most popular statistical software in the
social and behavioral sciences is the SPSS. However, there are some
programs that are less complex for a beginner like you.
In this lesson, we shall only use Minitab 13 and Microsoft Excel in
performing statistical calculations. Figure 8 shows the screenshot of
Minitab 13; Figure 9, Excel.
96
and
. Look
In our tutorials, we will routinely use Stat and Graph buttons in the
Menu. Just hover your cursor on Stat or Graph and these routines will
appear:
98
A. Univariate analysis
Use the table below as your guide in conducting univariate analysis.
For example, if your variable is at the ratio level, use mean as a measure
of central tendency and standard deviation as spread. You can graph the
data using histogram or bar graph.
99
Percentage
Data analysis tutorial 2 : Calculating the percentage of male and female
students in the sample.
Step 1: Click Stat > Tables > Tally . . .
Step 2: Follow the steps in the Figure below
Now produce a pie graph for male and females by following these
steps:
Step 1: Click Graph > Pie Chart
Step 2: Follow the steps in the figure below.
100
The results are shown in the Minitab Results View that shows the
statistics below of which Median is equal to three (3). You can calculate
the IQR using this formula: IQR = Q3 Q1. Thus,
IQR = 4-2
IQR = 2.
101
102
B. Bivariate analysis
In the preceding subsection, we learned how to conduct univariate
analysis. Now, we will learn how to analyze two variables at a time. This
type of analysis is important, especially when we wish to find a relationship
between variables. But before jumping on the tutorials, we will first learn
the types of relationships among variables.
The figure below shows a graphical representation of the types of
relationship among continuous variables.
103
104
1. The t-test
Data analysis tutorial 5: Calculating the difference between two means.
For example, we want to determine who between male and female US
students engage more frequently in binge drinking.
The research questions can be phrased as:
What is the difference between male and female students in terms
of engagement in binge drinking? Or
Is there a significant difference between male and female students
in terms of engagement in binge drinking?
105
Note:
Before interpreting the results, remember first the coding of the
variables. You should note that Males were coded as 1 and Females were
coded as 2. From the results, we can see that Male students have a mean
binge drinking of 1.54 compared to 1.347 of the female students,
suggesting that male students have higher binge drinking levels than
females. However, does this difference occur beyond chance? That is, is
the error (P-value or significance level) associated with this difference
below 0.05? Now, look at the Red Box # 2 which shows that the p-value is
less than 0.05 because it is 0.000. Thus, the difference is significant
beyond chance. This finding is corroborated by the 95% Confidence
Interval (CI) for the difference between the two means (0.0978, 0.2899),
which does not cross zero and negative values (see Red Box # 3). Thus, the
difference is not likely to be zero or negative. Here is the interpretation of
the results:
Interpretation:
Table x shows that male students have higher binge drinking levels than female
students. As seen, the difference between the binge drinking mean levels between
the two groups is 0.1939, which is significant at the 0.0001 level. This is confirmed
by the 95% CI of the difference (0.0978-0.2899) which does not cross zero. Thus,
male students are more likely than females to engage in binge drinking.
106
107
3. Chi-square
Data analysis tutorial 7. Determining the association between two
nominal variables. In t-test and ANOVA, we measured the relationship
between a nominal variable (e.g. sex) and a continuous one (i.e. binge
drinking means). This time we will examine whether two nominal variables
are associated. Specifically, we will determine the relationship between sex
(Male/Female) and membership in fraternities/sororities (Member/Not
member). That is, who between male students and female student have
higher proportion of membership in fraternities/sororities?
What is the association
fraternities/sororities?
between
sex
and
membership
in
Is there an association
fraternities/sororities?
between
sex
and
membership
in
108
Interpretation:
Table xxx shows no sex differences in membership to fraternities and
2
sororities, X (1, N = 1390) = 0.046, p = 0.830). That is, male and female
students have the same proportion in terms of fratsor membership.
4. Pearson correlation
Data analysis tutorial 8. Calculating the relationship between two
continuous variables. What if we want to determine the relationship
between two continuous variables? We cannot use the preceding bivariate
statistics. We will use instead Pearson correlation which calculates the
extent and direction of the relationship between two continuous variables.
Here is the research question we will attempt to answer this time.
What is the relationship between favorable attitudes toward parties
and engagement in binge drinking?
Is there a significant relationship between favorable attitudes toward
parties and engagement in binge drinking?
109
110
111
C. Multivariate analysis
As I pointed out above, you might wonder why we include nominal
variables in Pearson correlation analysis. Now, before we embark on our
journey in multivariate analysis, for example multiple linear regression,
we should first learn why we can include nominal variables in Pearson
correlation and in multiple linear regression as independent variables.
The use of feasibility of using nominal variables as predictors in
linear regression is hinged on the principles of the general linear model
which suggests that t-test, ANOVA, and LR are the same and yield identical
results.
Some myths in statistics
The idea that researchers cannot use dummy-coded independent
variables in MLR might originate from another myth on the perceived
different systems of t-test, ANOVA, and MLR. And this perceived difference
stemmed from the bifurcation of two disciplines in psychology
correlational and experimental (Cronbach, 1957; Cohen, 1968).
Correlational psychology (and biology) started from the works of Galton,
Pearson, and Yule. On the other hand, experimental psychology originated
112
Model
Example
Mean
Linear
Regression
Multiple
linear
regression
t-test
113
where,
X = the group (coded as 0 or 1)
b0 = mean of the base category
group (0)
ANOVA
X2 = Group 3
b0 = mean of the base category
(Group 1)
b2 = difference between the
means of the base category and
Group 1
b3 = difference between the
means of the base category and
Group 2
114
Selfcontrol
Respondent
Jose
Wally
Paolo
Jimmy
Alan K.
Alden
Yaya Dub
Lola Nidora
Lola Tinidora
Lola Tidora
Male = 0; Female = 1
1.5
2.1
2.2
3
3.5
3.8
4.4
4.7
4.9
5
Delinquency Sex
20
18
17
15
12
9
6
5
3
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
115
116
A t-test
relationship
approach
to
examining
the
sex-delinquency
Sex
0
1
N
6
4
Mean
15.17
4.000
Median
16.00
4.000
TrMean
15.17
4.000
StDev
4.07
1.826
Variable
Delinque
Sex
0
1
SE Mean
1.66
0.913
Minimum
9.00
2.000
Maximum
20.00
6.000
Q1
11.25
2.250
Q3
18.50
5.750
N
6
4
Mean
15.17
4.00
StDev
4.07
1.83
SE Mean
1.7
0.91
P-Value = 0.001
DF = 7
117
Coef
15.167
-11.167
S = 3.406
SE Coef
1.391
2.199
R-Sq = 76.3%
T
10.91
-5.08
P
0.000
0.001
R-Sq(adj) = 73.4%
Analysis of Variance
Source
Regression
Residual Error
Total
DF
1
8
9
SS
299.27
92.83
392.10
MS
299.27
11.60
F
25.79
P
0.001
The results of the LR confirm the earlier analysis. Notice that the
Coefficient for the Constant is 15.167, which corresponds to the mean
delinquency of the male group, and the coefficient for Sex is -11.167, which
corresponds to the difference between the means of female and male group
delinquency. The results further suggest that this difference is significant
at the 0.001 level.
Therefore, we can compare the means of female delinquency and male
delinquency using LR. The t-test and LR are identical.
When is LR more preferable than t-test?
Although, t-test and LR have identical results, there are times when
LR is more preferable, especially when ruling out confounding factors or
testing theories that require the input of multiple variables (both
continuous and binary) as predictors in the MLR model.
For example, Gottfredson and Hirschi (1990) suggest that selfcontrol and opportunity can account for variation of delinquency. They
further suggest that self-control and opportunity can rule out or decrease
the effects of other factors (e.g. sex) on delinquency when these factors are
simultaneously entered into the model to predict delinquency. Lagrange
and Silverman (1999) examined these propositions and argued that sex
differences in offending can be accounted for by self-control and
119
opportunity. Males had been known to have higher offending rates that
females. However, based on Gottfredson & Hirschis (1990) work, they
argued that this relationship would diminish or at least attenuate once
self-control and opportunity were statistically controlled. Indeed, their
analysis supported their claims. When men and women had the same level
of self-control and opportunity to commit delinquency, the effects of sex
on drug use diminished and its effects on other delinquent acts were
attenuated.
We can approximate what Lagrange and Silverman (1999) did by
analyzing our current hypothetical data set. Let gender and self-control be
the independent variables and delinquency as dependent variable. The
result of the MLR are, as follows:
Regression Analysis: Delinquency versus Self-control, Sex
The regression equation is
Delinquency = 27.4 - 4.57 Self-control - 1.72 Sex
Predictor
Constant
Self-con
Sex
Coef
27.428
-4.5693
-1.724
S = 0.8602
SE Coef
1.180
0.4198
1.030
R-Sq = 98.7%
T
23.24
-10.88
-1.67
P
0.000
0.000
0.138
R-Sq(adj) = 98.3%
Analysis of Variance
Source
Regression
Residual Error
Total
Source
Self-con
Sex
DF
1
1
DF
2
7
9
SS
386.92
5.18
392.10
MS
193.46
0.74
F
261.46
P
0.000
Seq SS
384.85
2.07
120
121
this analysis, the constant is not important, so we can disregard it. Let us
focus on the other three predictors sex, attitudes toward religion, and
attitudes toward parties. The next column to look at is the coefficient
column. Here look for the sign (whether positive or negative). The sign of
the coefficient indicate the direction of the relationship, whether positive
or negative. Here is the interpretation of these results:
Interpretation: The multiple linear regression model used to explain drinks4
is significant at the 0.0001 level. However, only three (3) variables gender,
religion, parties in the model significantly predict drinks4. In particular,
religion is positively related to drinks4 after controlling for other variables in
the model, suggesting that religiosity decreases the tendency to have four or
more drinks in a row. In other words, college students who are religious are less
likely to engage in binge drinking. On the other hand, gender and parties are
negatively related to drinks4. Specifically, these results imply that males and
students who have favorable attitudes toward parties are more likely to engage
in binge drinking. In sum, binge drinkers are male college students who are not
religious and possess favorable attitudes toward parties.
123
Predict who are most likely to join fraternities and sororities (fratsor;
Member = 1; Not member = 2) using age, gender, athletic, religion, and
parties.
Step 1: Click Stat > Regression > Binary logistic regression
Step 2: Choose fratsor as your Response and age, gender, athletic,
religioin, and parties as Models independent variables.
124
125
Mediation model
Interaction model
Probing mediation
This time we will see whether the effect of age on binge drinking is
mediated by attitudes toward parties. That is, it is quite possible that older
US students engage less in binge drinking in part because they do not love
parties. Here is the research question:
Does love of parties mediate the relationship between age and binge
drinking?
Note: There is mediation when love of parties attenuates or
diminishes the effects of age on binge drinking.
Procedure
To test a mediation hypothesis, you need to build two regression
models
First model: Enter age and gender
Second model: Add love of parties into the base model
In Minitab, execute these steps:
Step 1: Stat > Regression > Regression . ..
Step 2: Enter drinks4 to Response; and age and gender to Predictors >
OK
126
Note that the effect of age in the first model is significant beyond
0.05 level (b=-0.029182, p<0.01), suggesting that older students engage
less in binge drinking compared to younger students. We will now examine
whether such relationship is mediated by love of parties. Follow these
steps in building the second model:
Step 3: Stat > Regression > Regression . ..
Step 4: Enter drinks4 to Response and age, gender, parties to Predictors
> OK
Look at the figure above. You will notice that the effect of age
disappeared, while love of parties significantly predicts binge drinking. The
elimination of the effect of age on binge drinking when love of parties was
included in the model indicates mediation effect. We can construct a table
127
of the results of the two models. Look at the table below and its
interpretation.
Table xy shows the regression models built to probe the mediation effect of love of
parties in the relationship between age and binge drinking. Model 1 suggests that
older students tend to engage less in binge drinking (b = -0.029, p<0.001). However,
when love of parties was entered in Model 2, such relationship was diminished (b =
0.002, p>0.05). Thus, love of parties mediate the relationship between age and binge
drinking. Older students are less likely to engage in binge drinking partially because
they do not love parties.
128
Note: Before building the models, you need first to create the
interaction term between age and love of parties. To do this,
1. Perform mean centering on age and parties
2. Multiply age (mean centered) and parties (mean centered)
Creating an interaction term (variable) between age and attitude toward
parties:
Step 1 (Mean centering age): Calc > Calculator > Input C50 into Store
result in variable > In the Expression box, enter age - 21.162 > Ok >
Name C50 as Age (cntrd)
Step 2 (Mean centering parties): Calc > Calculator > Input C51 into
Store result in variable > In the Expression box, enter parties 3.0381 > Ok > Name C51 as Parties (cntrd)
Step 3 (Creating the interaction term): Calc > Calculator > Input C52
into Store result in variable > In the Expression box, enter 'Age
(cntrd)' * 'Parties (cntrd) > Ok > name C52 as Age x Parties
129
From these results, we can build a table of the model like the one
below:
Interpretation:
st
130
LESSON 7 EXERCISES
Name: ________________________________ Date: ___________ Grade: _______
1. Gather data or provide a statistical data set and perform the data
analysis techniques in this Lesson. That is, calculate the mean,
median, percentage, t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlation, multiple linear
regression, and binary logistic regression.
2. Paste you Minitab results in a Microsoft word and write your
interpretation for every result.
131
References
Cohen, J. (1968). Multiple regression as a general data-analytic system.
Psychological Bulletin, 70(6), 426-443.
Cohen, J., Cohen, P., West, S.G., & Aiken, L.S. (2003). Applied multiple
regression/correlation analysis for the behavioral sciences (3rd Ed).
Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc.
Cronbach, L. J. (1957). The two disciplines of scientific psychology.
American psychologist, 12, 671-684.
Field, A. (2013). Discovering statistics using IBM SPSS statistics and sex
and drugs and rock n roll (4th Ed). London: SAGE Publications
Ltd.
Gottfredson, M. & Hirschi, T. (1990). A general theory of crime. Stanford,
CA: Stanford University Press.
Kuiper, S. & Sklar, J. (2013). Practicing statistics: Guided investigations
for the second course. Pearson.
LaGrange, T. C., & Silverman, R. A. (1999). Low self-control and
opportunity: Testing the general theory of crime as an explanation
for gender differences in delinquency. Criminology, 37(1), 41-72.
Weinberg, S.L. & Abramowitz, S.K. (2008). Statistics using SPSS: An
integrative approach. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
132
LESSON 8
AN INTRODUCTION TO CRIME ANALYSIS AND CRIME MAPPING
After reading this chapter, the learner shall be able to:
1. state the functions of crime analysis and crime
mapping within policing strategies;
2. define and differentiate crime analysis and crime
mapping;
3. summarize the history of crime mapping; and
4. state the importance of GIS in crime mapping.
Introduction
Law enforcement can gain much from the use of cutting-edge
technology in reducing and controlling crimes. Several areas of law
enforcement functions benefit from the use of technology (e.g., in crime
detection, crime investigation, and crime prevention). In crime
investigation, for instance, police officers use cutting-edge technology to
collect, preserve, and analyze evidence such as blood, hair, prints, DNA
evidence, questioned documents, and other objects of evidentiary value.
This approach has gained much popularity because of its presence in
media outlets. For example, the popular TV series CSI portrays some real
life events and simulated crime scene investigations using sophisticated
tools to uncover mysteries in each of the crime incident portrayed.
However, the popularity of crime investigation techniques in the
media is not commensurate to its effectiveness. Previous research
demonstrated the futility of crime investigation and other traditional police
strategies (i.e., rapid response, random patrol, and reactive investigation
The 3 Rs) in reducing significant proportion of crimes (Weisburd & Eck,
2004). One of the earliest studies on the ineffectiveness of criminal
investigation in the reduction of crime was conducted in the early 1970s
by Greenwood and Petersilia (1975). They found out that investigative
training, staffing, workload, and procedures, organization in the
investigation division of all law enforcement agencies in the US that had
150 or more employees did not significantly increased chances of arrests,
clearance rates, and did not reduce crime. These findings led them to
conclude that reactive investigation does not work in reducing crime. This,
however, does not mean that the 3Rs in policing are not needed in the
police department. Instead, police agencies must funnel more focus on
proactive approaches and less on reactive ones.
133
Table 1
Reform Eras, Policing Strategies, and Evidence of Effectiveness in Curbing
Crime
Policing Eras
Political
Reform era
Policing Strategies
Not Definite,
Rudimentary
Traditional policing
(Random patrol, rapid
response, reactive
investigations)
Evidence of
Effectiveness
No Evidence
Very weak evidence
Community policing
Weak evidence
Problem-oriented
policing
Hot spots policing
Strong evidence
Moderate to strong
evidence
138
4. Problem-oriented Policing
Problem-oriented policing (POP) was also a result of the discontent
on traditional focus of policing. Herman Goldstein (1979) rethought
the real purpose of policing and posited that the true function of the
police is to analyze and solve problems in the community, thereby
suggesting a more focused policing strategies. Lamenting the
scattered and fragmented approach of the traditional approach in
policing, Goldstein stated that police should determine the problems
that bother community members. The problem must then be
analyzed so that tailored responses be formulated and implemented.
The process culminates with the assessment of the effectiveness of
the responses. This problem solving approach was later defined and
elaborated by Eck and Spelman (1987) as the SARA process. The
SARA process represents scanning, analysis, response and
assessment.
At this point, the SARA process is illustrated in a real problemsolving story in Newark, New Jersey, USA (see Zanin, Shane &
Clarke, 2004). In this story, the problem-solving efforts using the
SARA by the police, police scholars and the community are
elaborated.
Scanning (What is the problem?)
Policing must not be like a shotgun approach that employs many
resources but not focused on a target, thereby wasting considerable
amount of those resources. In the scanning stage, this situation is
being avoided as the police and the community involved in the
process conduct informative analysis on what is the problem that
bothers the residents. In Newark, researchers, the community and
the police recognized that the drug problem in the city was really
problematic. Initially, the researchers conducted ride-along
activities together with the police at the problematic places to get a
better insight on how drug dealing in the apartment complexes
worked. Simultaneously, arrest records were retrieved to discover
the extent of the problem. Density maps of the illicit drug acts were
created using GIS, which results to the visualization of drug hot
spots of the city. The scanning stage then proceeded with the
identification of 20 hot spot apartments for drug dealing, then
narrowed down to three most problematic apartment complexes that
produces most of the drug dealings.
139
Type of Crime
Analysis
Criminal investigative
analysis
Tactical or operational
analysis
Strategic crime
analysis
Intelligence analysis
Crime Mapping
Product
Map of possible future
locations of crimes by
serial offenders
Map of crime hot
spots
Map of problematic
areas and the
conditions associated
with the problem/s
Map of addresses of
offenders in relation to
crime hot spots
141
Hardware Requirements
These routines are to be performed in a 32-bit personal computer or
a laptop running within a Windows environment. Of course, one can
explore these crime mapping routines in other hardware
environments.
Software Requirements
The tutorial cannot begin without installing first these FREE
applications on your computer from the internet:
1. GIS applications.
Download the QGIS version 2.0.1 application from
http://www.qgis.org/en/site/forusers/download.html.
Functionalities: To visualize and create digital maps
2. Spatial and Temporal Analysis application
Download the CrimeStat program version 3.3 from
http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/CrimeStat/download.html and
GeoDa application from
http://geodacenter.asu.edu/software/downloads.
Functionalities: To conduct spatial and temporal statistical
analysis
3. Zip and Unzip Software
For this tutorial, we use the 7-Zip software freely
downloadable from http://www.7-zip.org/.
Functionalities: To extract/open zipped files as well as to zip
files.
4. LibreOffice
Download LibreOffice Main Installer version 4.1.4 from
http://www.libreoffice.org/download.
Functionalities: To be used as spreadsheet for files to be saved
as dBASE (.dbf) files
The tutorial also needs proprietary software such as
Microsoft Word and Excel.
Types of Hot Spot Mapping
Hot spot mapping can be categorized into three: point mapping,
choropleth mapping, and kernel density estimation. Figure 1 shows the
three types of hot spot mapping. Map A presents a point map. The
Administrative boundaries (barangays) of the city are overlaid with points.
142
Figure 1. Types of hot spot mapping: (A) point mapping, (A) choropleth
mapping, and (C) kernel density estimation.
143
2. North Arrow and Map Scale. North arrow identifies the orientation
of the map while the numerical scale signifies the size of the map (1
cm of the map represents 63,688 cm).
144
3. Legend. The legend identifies the map layers (i.e., hot spots, city
streets, base map) that compose the map.
Additional contents of the map may include the geocoding hit rate.
For the current map the geocoding hit rate is above 95%. Thus, current
analysis of property crime hot spot is unbiased by missing data values.
Component Number 1 through 3 can be created out from the data
in the GIS application, in which the routines are fairly straightforward
provided that one has the data for the layers. What we really need are the
data needed to create the layers in the GIS.
145
146
References
Anselin, L., Syabri, I. and Kho, Y. (2006). GeoDa: An Introduction to Spatial Data
Analysis. Geographical Analysis, 38(1): 5-22.
and
the
Crimestat
Program.
Mamalian, C.A., La Vigne, N.G., and the staff of the Crime Mapping
Research Center. (1999). The use of computerized crime mapping by law
enforcement: Survey results. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice,
National Institute of Justice.
Mazerolle, L., McBroom, J. & Rombouts, S. (2011). Compstat in Australia:
An analysis of the spatial and temporal impact. Journal of Criminal Justice,
39(2), 128-136.
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Star. Retrieved on December 18, 2013, from
http://www.philstar.com/metro/265558/crime-mapping-munti-cops
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University, Philadelphia, PA and the National Institute of Justice,
Washington, DC.
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CA: Sage Publications, Inc.
Sherman, L.W., Gartin, P.R. & Buerger, M.E. (1989). Hot spots of predatory
crime: Routine activities and the criminology of place. Criminology, 27(1),
27-56.
148
Sherman, L.W. (1995). Hot spots of crime and criminal careers of places,
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patrol in crime hot spots: A randomized, controlled trial. Justice
Quarterly, 12(4), 625-648.
Steiniger, S. & Hay, G. (2009). Free and open source geographic
information tools for landscape ecology. Ecological Informatics, 4:183-195.
Steiniger, S. & Hunter, A. (2013). The 2012 free and open source GIS
software map A guide to facilitate research, development, and adoption.
Computers, Environement and Urban Systems, 39:136-150.
Taylor, B., Boba, R. & Egge, J. (2011). The integration of crime analysis into
patrol work: A guidebook. Washington, DC: Office of Community Oriented
Policing Services, US Department of Justice.
Wagers, M., Sousa, W. & Kelling, G. (2008). Broken windows. In R. Wortley
& L. Mazerolle (Eds.), Environmental criminology and crime analysis.
Portland, Oregon: Willan Publishing
Weisburd, D. & Eck, J. (2004). What can police do to reduce crime,
disorder, and fear? The Annals of the American Academy of Political and
Social Sciences, 593(1), 42-65.
Weisburd, D. & McEwen, t. (Eds.). (1998). Crime mapping and crime
prevention. New York: Criminal Justice Press.
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mapping in policing: Linking research and practice. Police Practice and
Research, 6(5), 419-434.
Weisburd, D., Mastrofski, S.D., McNally, A., Greenspan, R. & Willis, J.J.
(2003). Reforming to presenrve: Compstat and strategic problem solving
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149
this, ill-funded police departments are given an option to do more with less
in crime mapping and crime analysis. The paper proceeds by explicating:
(a) crime analysis, especially crime mapping; (b) conventional proprietary
GIS tools and their free open source alternatives; and finally (c) the utility
of these alternative tools will be demonstrated in the analysis of robbery
and theft offenses in the city of Dumaguete.
Crime Mapping in Crime Analysis
Crime analysis has gained current surge of interests from
researchers and practitioners. Its utility in testing and informing theory
and practice is greatly recognized in the field of environmental criminology
(Wortley & Mazerolle, 2008). Crime analysis, however, is not a new
invention (Santos, 2013). Conceivably, it is as old as the ability of humans
to contemplate and analyze series of events and find patterns, especially
patterns of crime events. Crime analysis is the systematic study of crime
and disorder problems as well as other police-related issuesincluding
socio-demographic, spatial, and temporal factorsto assist the police in
criminal apprehension, crime and disorder reduction, crime prevention,
and evaluation (Santos, 2013:2). Santos (2013) provides six distinct but
complementary types of crime analysis: intelligence analysis, criminal
investigative analysis, tactical crime analysis, strategic crime analysis,
operations analysis, and administrative crime analysis. All of these types
can be aided with crime mapping (see Santos, 2013: 63 for some
examples).
Crime mapping is used by researchers and practitioners to visualize
crime patterns in space and time (Harries, 1999; Eck et al., 2005; Anselin
et al., 2008). Santos (2013:5) defines crime mapping as the process of
using a geographic information system to conduct spatial analysis of crime
and disorder problems as well as other police-related issues. Perhaps,
crime mapping is of its greatest utility in hot spots analysis (Anselin et al.,
2008). Crime hot spots are places that have above average crime
concentration in a particular jurisdiction (Eck, 2005). The concept of crime
hot spots gained much attention after Sherman et al. (1989) discovered
that half of the calls for predatory crime to the police came from only 3
percent of all addresses and intersections in Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA.
Hot spot analysis was previously done through manual pin mapping;
however, with its inherent tedious nature, the method was replaced by
computerized methods using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and
related tools (Anselin et al., 2008; Harries, 1999; Weisburd & Lum, 2005).
The identification of crime patterns informs both theory and
practice. For researchers, crime patterns may support or modify existing
crime theories like routine activity approach, rational choice perspective,
and the crime pattern theory (Wortley & Mazerolle, 2008). In the same way,
151
to produce the crime mapping products shown later in this section. If the
data are not yet encoded then one may encode the data in this format
using Calc or Excel.
Table 1. Sample database format for computerized crime mapping.
ID
Year Month Day Day2 Hour Location
00001 2010 Jan
1
Fri
7:45
Flores
Ave.,
Dumaguete City
00002 2010 Feb
13
Sat
8:15
Miciano
Rd.,
Dumaguete City
00003 2010 Jul
28
Fri
7:45
Dr. V. Locsin St.,
Dumaguete City
00004 2011 Feb
17
Thu
3:00
Colon Extension,
Dumaguete City
00005 2011 Apr
13
Wed 22:30 Quezon
Park,
Dumaguete City
00006 2011 May
4
Wed 6:30
San
Jose
Extension,
Dumaguete City
00007 2012 Jan
2
Mon 8:45
Cathedral Church,
Dumaguete City
00008 2012 Oct
27
Sat
13:00 Perdices
St.,
Dumaguete City
00009 2012 Nov
6
Sat
2:00
Hibbard
Ave.,
Dumaguete City
00010 2012 Dec
11
Sun
14:40 Teves
St.,
Dumaguete City
Crime
Theft
Robbery
Carnapping
Theft
Carnapping
Carnapping
Robbery
Theft
Theft
Theft
156
Table 2. Crime data table with geocoded coordinates (latitude and longitude).
ID
Year
Month
Day1
Day
Hour
00001
2010
Jan
Fri
7:45
00002
2010
Feb
13
Sat
8:15
00003
2010
Jul
28
Fri
7:45
00004
2011
Feb
17
Thu
3:00
00005
2011
Apr
13
Wed
22:30
00006
2011
May
Wed
6:30
00007
2012
Jan
Mon
8:45
00008
2012
Oct
27
Sat
13:00
00009
2012
Nov
Sat
2:00
00010
2012
Dec
11
Sun
14:40
Location
Flores Ave.,
Dumaguete
City
Miciano
Rd.,
Dumaguete
City
Dr. V.
Locsin St.,
Dumaguete
City
Colon
Extension,
Dumaguete
City
Quezon
Park,
Dumaguete
City
San Jose
Extension,
Dumaguete
Cathedral
Church,
Dumaguete
City
Perdices St.,
Dumaguete
City
Hibbard
Ave.,
Dumaguete
City
Teves St.,
Dumaguete
City
Latitude
Longitude
Crime
9.316222
123.311561
Theft
9.306021
123.300931
Robbery
9.306738
123.302782
Carnapping
9.305142
123.300741
Theft
9.305889
123.3081
Carnapping
9.313096
123.294858
Carnapping
9.30684
123.305447
Robbery
9.306428
123.307671
Theft
9.316837
123.307224
Theft
9.309864
123.303544
Theft
157
158
The SDEs provide us the idea that these crimes are somewhat
clustered in space, and that the most clustered among the three types are
carnapping incidents. To see if these patterns are non-random beyond
chance or not, an analyst can use the nearest neighbor index (NNI) or the
Ripleys K routines in CrimeStat. In this paper, the NNI was used. The
results from the NNI routines are presented in Figure 5 which was created
using Excel. An NNI less than one denotes clustering, while more than one
signals random distribution of points across space. As seen, the three
crime types are clustered even up to the 100th nearest neighbor. The NNIs
(1st nearest neighbor only) are significant at the 0.0001 level. This means
that crime hot spots exist in the current data, thereby warranting hot spot
mapping.
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
Carnapping NNI
Robbery
0.4
Theft
0.2
0
1
13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97
160
role in crime mapping and crime analysis. They argued that the utility of
crime maps largely depends on whether or not the analyst have considered
several factors before creating maps using GIS. These factors include: (1)
what hot spot analysis method to use; (2) when to say a place a hot spot;
(3) how large a hot spot is; and, (4) how hot spots vary across time. Thus,
the methods explicated in this paper requires an analyst who has a good
grasp of the limitations of GIS mapping and of the ways to overcome these
limitations.
There is no guarantee that this approach would be adopted by all
police departments. Chamard (2006) posits that those small departments
in New Jersey, USA that have no prior computerized crime mapping
experience tend to discontinue their use of computerized crime mapping.
Reasons include the unavailability of data, personnel, and other resources.
In terms of the availability of the data, since this approach depends on the
availability of volunteered geographic information (VGI), it may work in
some jurisdictions but not in others. As observed, municipalities in the
Philippines that are composed mostly of rural barangays have incomplete
digital road networks and other VGI. These information are used for
computerized geocoding of crimes. Thus, police departments in these
jurisdictions may resort to manual geocoding, which is more tedious and
time consuming. However, the small number of crimes in these
jurisdictions may offset these issues, but the actual response of police
departments to these concern is yet to be seen.
One final issue that should be pointed out is the concern about the
quality of VGI resources used as base layers (e.g. OpenStreetMap road
layer) for the crime maps and as reference layer in geocoding crime
incidents. Volunteered geographic information are produced and
monitored by millions of volunteers (Goodchild, 2007). Because of this,
some issues related to the quality of VGI exist (Flanagin & Metzger, 2008).
These issues include the credibility of the volunteers, who are mostly
inexperienced and not educated in the science of geography, and the
quality of data which come from millions of volunteers who may have
submitted disparate data, thereby creating problems in arriving an
agreement on what data are exact. Thus, it is important to assure the
quality of these resources (Goodchild & Li, 2012). In terms of quality,
however, VGI do have advantages over authoritative data collected by
governments and private corporations. As Goodchild and Li (2012:112)
argue, authoritative data are increasingly out of date . . . and were
acquired using older technologies that were less accurate than those
available to the general public today . . . Thus in many circumstances it is
easy to show that VGI is of better quality than the best available
authoritative data.
162
163
164
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168