Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
After a decade-long struggle, the Goods and Services Tax (GST), which has already been adopted by 160+
countries in some form or the other, sailed over the first of three hurdles when the Rajya Sabha unanimously
adopted the Constitution Amendment Bill to facilitate its legislation.
Coming up next is the GST Council, comprising the Finance Minister and nominated State Finance Ministers, which
is expectd to be formed in 2 months to deliberate on the specific features of the tax including the final rate structure,
exemptions, threshold limits and date of implementation on petroleum products.
Further, the Constitution Amendment Bill also needs to be passed by at least 15 state legislatures (50% of the
states) before becoming an Act. Then the Centre and the states will have to pass their GST laws and turn India into
a unified market.
So which segments stand to gain and which wont with the implementation of GST?
CRISIL Research took a look at what this means:
The proposal for additional tax of up to 1% on the supply of goods to be levied on inter-state trade for 2 years is on
its way out, which will reduce its cascading effect and maximise the benefits from GST.
As per the Constitution Amendment Bill, all goods and services (except alcohol for human consumption) will be
brought under the GST purview. While petroleum/petroleum products have been included in the framework, GST
would be levied only upon the Councils recommendations, implying that present taxes (excise duty, sales tax,
CST) would continue to be levied on these products. For tobacco and tobacco products, taxes imposed by the
Centre would be levied over and above the GST.
All major indirect taxes levied by the Centre and the States will be subsumed in the CGST and the SGST
Taxes to be subsumed in GST
Central GST
State GST
Sales tax
Export Duty
Entertainment tax
Service Tax
Luxury tax
Toll Tax
Property Tax
Stamp Duty
Electricity Duty
Purchase Tax
Preferred
Alternative
Option
Precious metals
High/Demerit rate
(goods)*
12
16.9
40
12
17.3
40
12
17.7
40
12
18.0
40
12
18.4
40
12
18.9
40
Sectoral impact:
Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries Positive
Within passenger vehicle industry, mid-size segment (1,200-1,500 cc) will be the largest beneficiary with
an estimated duty decline of nearly 20%. Small cars segment could see a price benefit of about 10% and
luxury cars & UVs segment to get a limited ~5% benefit.
Given the intense competitive scenario & players struggle to maintain the market share coupled with
strong financials of the companies, CRISIL Research expects the players to pass on the tax benefit to end
consumers.
In turn, we anticipate a consumer preference to shift towards premium hatchbacks led by this shrinking
gap between small cars & mid-size segment.
Moreover, increasing affordability, lower cost of ownership and ample launches in the mid-size
segment will support the change in consumer preference as well.
On the top end vehicle front, we do not foresee a significant impact on demand as price does not
particularly dictate the purchasing decision for the segments.
Two wheeler industry will have a similar impact and prices will drop by about 8-10%. This will translate into
better demand for price sensitive 100-125 cc segment. 150+ cc vehicles are not estimated have a
significant impact.
Tractors are currently levied a 0% central excise duty and a 4% VAT. Under the new GST regime, central
GST will remain 0% and state GST is anticipated to be in the same range as current VAT. So we do not
expect much change in the demand scenario for tractors.
Commercial vehicle, which get subjected to Central Excise (12.5%) and VAT (12.5%), is expected to
benefit marginally depending on the RNR adopted.
GST will lead to the hub and spoke model gaining prominence, and a faster shift towards larger MHCV
trucks in primary routes - to 37 tonne from 31 tonne and from 25 tonne multi-axel vehicles (MAVs) and
40 tonne trailers from 35 tonne.
The spokes will now be catered largely by ICVs aiding to overall MHCV sales over the long run
However, better fleet productivity will result in lower requirement for commercial vehicles
Auto ancillary industrys effective tax rate which is currently at 28-30% is expected to come down to 18%
upon implementation of GST. However, this benefit will be passed on to OEMs, which will eventually drive
expansion in auto demand. It is also expected to improve the price competitiveness of the organised
players, especially in products largely sold in the aftermarket segment (eg batteries - where share from
after-market is greater than 50%).
Cement - Positive
With GST implementation, we expect the overall tax incidence on the sector to potentially decline. Typically,
indirect taxes in the sector are close to 28-30% which would potentially come down post GST implementation to the
effective tax rate. Further, the sector will also benefit from expected decline in logistics costs with consolidation of
warehouses especially for large players with a pan-India presence.
E-commerce is neutral
Bill is expected to bring some clarity in online business. It will also open new markets for online players who face
complexities of entry tax and other processes while entering in specific states.
E-commerce players have large number of sellers listed on their platform. These sellers will have cash-flow issues
as they will have to claim refunds for tax paid on inputs , which e-tailers will not be able to account for. Thus, this
will increase the compliance burden for e-commerce players. Further, any payment made to a supplier would be
subject to tax collected at source at the notified rate. This might create a rift between sellers and e-commerce
companies.
Implementation of GST, assuming 18% rate, will increase solar power project cost by 13-15%
Solar modules, which account for 55-60% of total capital cost, and are largely imported, there exists no
customs duty. Also, VAT and other levies like entry tax and excise duty, which together are ~5%
currently, will increase to 18%.
However, given strong government thrust to promote renewable energy, the GST Council could exclude /
provide a concessional rate renewable energy from the regime.
Impact of GST on real estate will depend upon the abatement allowed on agreement
value
From the point of view of consumers, the impact of GST on the real estate sector will hinge on its effective
implementation rate.
In the residential segment, completed properties do not attract service tax and so will have no impact of the
implementation of GST.
In case of under construction properties, consumers pay the following:
Stamp duty and registration charges (which are state specific and which will not fall under the purview of
GST)
7
Service taxes including Swacchh Bharat Cess and Krishi Kalyan Cess totally adding up to 15% (since
service tax is applicable on 25% of the agreement value, effective outgo translates to 3.75%. However in
case of properties costing above Rs 1 crore or where the carpet area of the residential unit exceeds 2,000
sq ft, service tax will be applicable on 30% of the agreement value, translating to an effective outgo of
4.5%)
VAT state-specific charge, for instance Maharashtra charges 1% VAT on agreement value, while
Karnataka charges 5.5%, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal do not charge VAT VAT is expected to be
subsumed under GST
Thus, if the current service tax+VAT outgo is higher than the effective GST rate, it will provide some relief to the
consumer. In case the current outgo is lower than the effective GST rate, it will further burden the residential real
estate sector which is already facing headwinds, especially with regards to demand. A crucial clarification required
at the moment, is the treatment of GST in lieu of service tax, namely whether applicable at 25% or at a rate
different from 25%. This will have a direct bearing on its overall impact.
Leasing of residential properties does not attract service tax and so will have no impact of the implementation of
GST.
On the other hand, leasing of commercial properties attracts service tax and will be impacted by GST. Again, the
impact will depend on the effective rate of GST.
From the developers point of view, implementation of GST will results in lower construction costs. Overall tax
incidence on inputs like cement and steel is expected to decline, thereby leading to improved margins for the
developer. However, whether these benefits are passed on to the consumer remains to be seen. Additionally,
further clarity is required on the availability of input tax credit with respect to works contract which results in
construction of immovable property as it will determine its impact on the sector.
From the point of view on consumers, the Impact of GST on the real estate sector will hinge on its effective
implementation rate.
In the residential segment, completed properties do not attract service tax and so will have no impact of the
implementation of GST.
In case of under construction properties, consumers pay the following:
Stamp duty and registration charges (which are state specific and which will not fall under the purview of
GST)
Service taxes including Swacchh Bharat Cess and Krishi Kalyan Cess totally adding up to 15% (since
service tax is applicable on 25% of the agreement value, effective outgo translates to 3.75%. However in
case of properties costing above Rs 1 crore or where the carpet area of the residential unit exceeds 2,000
sq ft, service tax will be applicable on 30% of the agreement value, translating to an effective outgo of
4.5%)
VAT state-specific, for instance Maharashtra charges 1% VAT on agreement value, while Karnataka
charges 5.5% VAT, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal do not charge VAT VAT is expected to be subsumed
under GST
Thus, if the current service tax+VAT outgo is higher than the effective GST rate, it will provide some relief to the
consumer. In case the current outgo is lower than the effective GST rate, it will further burden the residential real
estate sector which is already facing headwinds, especially with regards to demand.
Leasing of residential properties does not attract service tax and so will have no impact of the implementation of
GST.
On the other hand, leasing of commercial properties attracts service tax and will be impacted by GST. Again, the
impact will depend on the effective rate of GST.
Steel - Neutral
With GST implementation, we expect the overall tax incidence on the sector to potentially remain same with a
marginally positive impact in states imposing high VAT considering that the steel producing states are not the key
consuming centres; thereby attracting high VAT (state-specific).
Typically indirect taxes in the sector are close to 15-18% depending upon whether the sales are within or outside
the state. If the GST is levied at 18% the effective tax rate will remain at similar levels and there will be no visible
impact on the steel sector (slight positive bias).
Pharmaceuticals - Neutral
GST for pharma companies likely to remain similar to the current effective tax rate of ~12%. However, as the
pharma industry receives area based exemption on indirect taxes, any changes in the exemption or re-negotiation
of Memorandum of understanding (MoUs) between the government (state, central) and the companies can have a
slight negative impact on the sector. GST will enable pharma companies to rationalize their distribution networks
through consolidation of depots/warehouses and better inventory management.
10
End-users of coal are expected to witness an increase in fuel costs with implementation of GST.
Excise duty on coal is levied at 6%, whereas VAT is levied at 5%. Assuming a GST rate of 18%, delivered
cost of coal is likely to increase by 5-6% per tonne of coal.
Consequently, the variable cost of power generation from domestic coal is likely to increase by 6-8 paise
per unit. On the other hand, the increase in variable cost from imported coal is estimated to increase by 12
paise per unit.
The increase in fuel costs are not expected to have any impact on the profitability of power generation
companies. Central and Stage government projects are based on a cost-plus principle, by which their
tariffs are determined on the basis of actual cost of fuel. Moreover, as per the National Tariff Policy 2016,
even competitively bid projects (private sector) are also allowed to pass-on any increase in costs on
account of change in taxes and levies (subject to approval of appropriate Commission). Consequently, we
believe that the increase in fuel costs will be passed on the distribution companies by these generators.
The impact of the increase in power purchase costs on retail tariffs will vary on a state-to-state basis,
depending upon existing tariff structure and subsidy levels.
Macro-economic impact
Inflation could edge up 60 bps in short run
The Goods and Services Tax (GST), if implemented well, will improve ease of doing business and boost
investments and exports. We see its impact on GDP to be positive in the medium term, and expect higher tax
collections to improve the fiscal health. On inflation, the impact will be mixed. In the short run, CPI inflation could
rise by up to 60 basis points (bps) as a result of the implementation of GST, while in the longer run reduction in the
cascading effect of taxes, avoidance of double taxation, and lower logistics costs will help lower inflation.
11
And since the GST rate is supposed to be a revenue-neutral rate, there will be no significant upward pressure on
inflation and consumers in the medium-term. The reduction in the cascading effect of taxation, lower cost of
production, efficiency gains in supply chain and lower core inflation are likely to benefit and trend lower.
Fiscal impact
GST is expected to result in improvement in tax collections by spawning uniformity and simplicity. The use of
information technology systems to match supply and purchase invoices would reduce the scope of tax evasion.
Also, a more comprehensive definition of taxation under GST will take care of the ambiguity arising on account of
distinction between goods and services (Report on revenue neutral rate and structure of rates for GST,
December 2015).
This, combined with the expected improvement in growth as GST improves productivity and encourages
investments would mean that tax buoyancy improves. While it is difficult to quantify the precise impact at this
stage, tax revenues for the government should improve in the medium-to-long term, helping it attain fiscal targets.
12
Analytical Contacts
Dharmakirti Joshi
Chief Economist
dharmakirti.joshi@crisil.com
Prasad Koparkar
Senior Director
prasad.koparkar@crisil.com
Sakshi Gupta
Economist
sakshi.gupta@crisil.com
Geoffrey Dcunha
Associate Director
geoffrey.dcunha@crisil.com
Binaifer F. Jehani
Director
binaifer.jehani@crisil.com
Media contacts
Shamik Paul
Media Relations
CRISIL Limited
D: +91 22 3342 1942
M: +91 99 208 93887
B: +91 22 3342 3000
shamik.paul@crisil.com
Khushboo Bhadani
Media Relations
CRISIL Limited
D: +91 22 3342 1812
M: +91 72 081 85374
B: +91 22 3342 3000
khushboo.bhadani@crisil.com
13