Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Kevin Sene
Kevin Sene
United Kingdom
ISBN 978-3-540-77852-3
e-ISBN 978-3-540-77853-0
Preface
Part I Flood Warning, which discusses the topics of detection, thresholds and
dissemination
vi
Preface
The types of flooding which are discussed include river flooding, coastal surge,
snowmelt, ice-jams, urban drainage, flash flooding, and geotechnical risks, such
as Tsunami, dam breaks, and debris flows. The impacts of tropical cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons are also discussed from a flooding perspective, although the
meteorological aspects are only considered briefly. Examples of operational systems are also provided from several countries, which in places has led to a need to
decide on the most appropriate terminology to use. So, for example, the term
catchment is used to describe what in some countries is known as a river basin or
watershed, the term cell phone describes mobile or cellular phones, and the term
flood defence is used in place of the terms levees or dikes. A glossary provides
more detail on the terminology used.
Although the book is primarily about real time flood warning, forecasting and
emergency response, some of the techniques described have evolved from those
used in other applications, such as flood simulation, water resources, hydrometeorology, and ocean modelling, and may be of wider interest. The main difference
in flood warning applications is the requirement for rapid decision making, often
with incomplete or uncertain information. Supporting tools, such as forecasting
models, also need to operate sufficiently quickly and reliably to be of value in the
process, again often with less input data than would be available in simulation
modeling, although with the option of updating outputs in real time to help to
correct for differences between observed and forecast values. There is also often
a greater emphasis on the resilience of systems, and on documenting any design,
operational and other decisions made during model operation. These differences
all add an interesting dimension to this diverse and wide ranging subject.
Acknowledgements
This book has benefited from discussions with many people. Following several years
working in fluid mechanics, I joined the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in
Wallingford (formerly the Institute of Hydrology) which provided the opportunity to
work on a wide range of research and consultancy projects on flood-related, hydrometeorology, water resources and hydrometry topics in more than twenty countries. The
many discussions with colleagues during that time provided a useful grounding for the
topics discussed in this book.
Subsequently, as part of a large engineering consultancy, I have had the benefit
of many meetings, site visits and discussions with operational staff as part of flood
warning and forecasting improvement projects and strategies, and on projects to
develop best practice guidelines in flood forecasting for the Environment Agency
and SEPA.
In a rapidly developing field such as flood warning, forecasting and emergency
response, much information can also be obtained from internet searches, and many
organizations place conference proceedings, reports, manuals, and other useful
documents in the public domain. In presenting figures, references and quotations
from internet and published sources, both the publisher and myself have attempted
to identify and provide citations to the appropriate sources, although we apologise
if there have been any unintentional errors.
Many people assisted with providing comments on short extracts from the draft
text and providing figures, and I hope that I have included their comments accurately. Michael Robbins and Steve Jebson from the Met Office, and Ian Marshall
and Hazel Phillips from the Environment Agency, were also very helpful with my
requests to use a range of figures and tables in the book.
I am also grateful to a number of colleagues for discussing aspects of the text,
or providing figures, including Marc Huband, Nick Elderfield, Jayne Lamont, Tom
Rouse, and Graham Clark. Also, Yiping Chen for many useful discussions on
hydraulic modelling for real time forecasting applications, and Jonathan Wright for
his general advice and support.
Finally, from Springer, I would like to thank Robert Doe and Nina Bennink for
their help and advice throughout the process of writing the book and bringing it to
production.
vii
viii
Acknowledgements
Environment Agency for Figures 3.5, 4.2, 8.7, 9.3 and Tables 3.1, 3.3, 5.1, 5.5,
and 6.1
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for Figure 10.1
Her Majestys Stationary Office for the text cited in Box 9.2
KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute for Figure 3.1
Met Office for Figures 2.1, 2.3 and 2.4
NOAA/National Weather Service for Figures 7.5 and 7.6
Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory/National Tidal and Sea Level Facility for
Figures 7.3 and 7.4
Royal Meteorological Society for Figure 2.2
Scottish Hydraulics Study Group for Table 8.1
STOWA for Figures 10.4 and 10.5
World Meteorological Organisation for Figures 1.2, 1.3, 3.4, 3.6, 7.1, 7.2, 8.2,
8.5 and 11.1
Note that any text/material regarding TCP/WMO does not imply the expression/
endorsement of any opinion whatsoever on the WMO Secretariat concerning the
legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning
the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
Also, I would like to thank the following people for assisting with providing
figures, or comments on draft text:
Contents
Preface .............................................................................................................
Acknowledgements ........................................................................................
vii
1
1
8
8
9
13
15
Introduction ..............................................................................................
1.1 The Flood Warning Process ..............................................................
1.2 The Nature of Flood Risk .................................................................
1.2.1 Flooding in Context ..............................................................
1.2.2 Assessing Flood Risk ............................................................
1.3 Emergency Response ........................................................................
1.4 The Role of Flood Forecasting .........................................................
Part I
Flood Warning
Detection ...................................................................................................
2.1 Meteorological Conditions ...............................................................
2.1.1 Site Specific Observations ....................................................
2.1.2 Remote Sensing ....................................................................
2.1.3 Weather Forecasting .............................................................
2.2 River and Coastal Conditions ...........................................................
2.2.1 River/Tidal Level Monitoring ...............................................
2.2.2 River Flow Monitoring .........................................................
2.2.3 Wave Monitoring ..................................................................
2.3 Instrumentation Networks.................................................................
2.3.1 Telemetry Systems ................................................................
2.3.2 Network Design ....................................................................
21
21
22
28
33
36
37
39
42
44
44
47
Thresholds ................................................................................................
3.1 Rainfall Thresholds ...........................................................................
3.2 River and Coastal Thresholds ...........................................................
3.2.1 Introduction ...........................................................................
3.2.2 Simple Forecasting Techniques ............................................
3.3 Performance Monitoring ...................................................................
51
51
56
56
61
67
ix
Contents
Dissemination ...........................................................................................
4.1 Flood Warning Procedures ...............................................................
4.1.1 Introduction ...........................................................................
4.1.2 Flood Warning Areas ............................................................
4.1.3 Organisational Issues ............................................................
4.1.4 Control Rooms ......................................................................
4.2 Dissemination Techniques ................................................................
4.2.1 Introduction ...........................................................................
4.2.2 Role of Information Technology ..........................................
4.2.3 Warning Messages ................................................................
4.3 Design and Implementation ..............................................................
Part II
71
71
71
73
75
77
79
79
81
84
87
Flood Forecasting
General Principles....................................................................................
5.1 Model Design Considerations ...........................................................
5.2 Forecasting Systems .........................................................................
5.3 Data Assimilation .............................................................................
5.3.1 Error Prediction .....................................................................
5.3.2 State and Parameter Updating ...............................................
5.3.3 Other Techniques ..................................................................
5.4 Model Calibration and Performance .................................................
5.4.1 Basic Concepts ......................................................................
5.4.2 Model Calibration .................................................................
5.4.3 Performance Measures ..........................................................
5.5 Model Uncertainty ............................................................................
93
93
97
104
106
107
108
108
108
110
113
114
Rivers.........................................................................................................
6.1 Model Design ....................................................................................
6.1.1 Forecasting Requirement ......................................................
6.1.2 Data Availability ...................................................................
6.1.3 Type of Model.......................................................................
6.2 Rainfall Runoff Models ....................................................................
6.2.1 Introduction ...........................................................................
6.2.2 Process-Based Models ..........................................................
6.2.3 Conceptual Models ...............................................................
6.2.4 Data-Based Methods .............................................................
6.3 River Channel Models ......................................................................
6.3.1 Introduction ...........................................................................
6.3.2 Process Based Models...........................................................
6.3.3 Conceptual Models ...............................................................
6.3.4 Data Based Methods .............................................................
123
123
124
126
128
132
132
135
137
139
141
141
142
145
146
Coasts ........................................................................................................
7.1 Model Design Issues .........................................................................
7.2 Process-Based Models ......................................................................
149
149
156
Contents
xi
156
157
165
167
169
169
171
175
175
175
177
178
181
185
185
188
190
190
195
198
199
202
203
205
Part III
Emergency Response
Preparedness.............................................................................................
9.1 Flood Emergency Planning ...............................................................
9.1.1 General Principles .................................................................
9.1.2 Risk Assessments ..................................................................
9.1.3 All-Hazard Approaches ........................................................
9.1.4 Validation and Testing of Plans ............................................
9.2 Resilience ..........................................................................................
9.2.1 Introduction ...........................................................................
9.2.2 Analysis Techniques .............................................................
9.3 Role of Information Technology ......................................................
9.3.1 Introduction ...........................................................................
9.3.2 Geographical Information Systems.......................................
9.3.3 Visualisation and Simulation ................................................
209
209
209
214
217
219
220
220
224
226
226
227
228
10
Response..................................................................................................
10.1 Flood Event Management .............................................................
10.1.1 Preparatory Actions ........................................................
10.1.2 Timelines ........................................................................
231
231
231
234
xii
Contents
10.2
10.3
237
244
Review .....................................................................................................
11.1 Performance Monitoring ...............................................................
11.2 Performance Improvements ..........................................................
11.2.1 Detection .........................................................................
11.2.2 Thresholds .......................................................................
11.2.3 Dissemination .................................................................
11.2.4 Forecasting ......................................................................
11.2.5 Preparedness ...................................................................
11.2.6 Response .........................................................................
11.3 Prioritising Investment ..................................................................
11.3.1 Cost Benefit Analysis .....................................................
11.3.2 Multi Criteria and Risk Based Analysis .........................
249
249
253
254
255
256
257
258
258
260
261
265
Glossary ..........................................................................................................
267
References .......................................................................................................
275
Index ................................................................................................................
299
11
Chapter 1
Introduction
Recent flood events have shown the devastating impact that flooding can have on
people and property. Flood warning and forecasting systems can help to reduce the
effects of flooding by allowing people to be evacuated from areas at risk, and to
move vehicles and personal possessions to safety. With sufficient warning, temporary defences can also be installed, and river and tidal control structures operated
to mitigate the effects of flooding. Many countries and local authorities now operate
some form of flood warning system, and the underlying technology requires knowledge
across a range of technical areas, including rainfall and tidal detection systems,
river and coastal flood forecasting models, flood warning dissemination systems, and
emergency response procedures. This introductory chapter provides a general overview
of the flood warning process, approaches to flood forecasting and emergency
response, and the nature of flood risk.
1.1
Flood warning systems provide a well-established way to help to reduce risk to life, and
to allow communities and the emergency services time to prepare for flooding
and to protect possessions and property. Actions may also be taken to reduce or prevent
flooding; for example, by operating river control structures, and floodfighting activities
such as reinforcing flood defences, and installing temporary or demountable barriers.
Informal flood warning systems have existed ever since people started to live and work
near rivers and coastlines. Heavy rainfall, high river levels, unusual sea states and other
cues, such as the sound of running water, all provide useful information on impending
flooding, with traditional methods for providing warnings including word of mouth, messengers, and raising flags and storm cones. These approaches still have a valuable role to
play, particularly where flooding develops rapidly, and communities must rely on their
own resources for the initial response. For example, in remote parts of Australia, farmers
may alert others further downstream if river levels are high or flooding has started
(Emergency Management Australia 1999) and, following the December 2004 Tsunami,
several community leaders were praised for recognising the abnormal sea conditions and
issuing an alert in time to prevent major loss of life (e.g. UNESCO 2006).
K. Sene, Flood Warning, Forecasting and Emergency Response,
Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2008
1 Introduction
FLOOD WARNING
Detection
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
PREPAREDNESS
For example
Stakeholder meetings/consultations
FLOOD
FORECASTING
Thresholds
School/outreach campaigns
Interagency coordination meetings
Flood Hazard Mapping
Dissemination
Response
Business Continuity/Resilience
assessments
Staff Training
Forecasting model improvements
Recovery
Review
System improvements
(instrumentation, communications,
dissemination etc)
Inputs to flood mitigation projects
Fig. 1.1 Illustration of the components of a flood warning, forecasting and emergency response system
Table 1.1 Typical components in the flood warning, forecasting and emergency response process
Item
Component
Examples
Flood warning
Flood forecasting
Emergency
response
Detection
1 Introduction
A particular issue to consider is that of the requirements for warning lead time, which
can range from a few minutes or less for people on a steep sloping river bank to reach
higher ground, to many hours or days for some situations, such as raising temporary
defences, evacuating large numbers of people, or drawing down a reservoir in advance of
flooding. Similarly, the requirements for accuracy, and tolerance to false alarms, will
vary between organisations and communities, and can be influenced by education and
public awareness exercises. This topic is discussed in more detail in later chapters.
One early success story is that of Bangladesh (World Meteorological Organisation
2006b) in which a programme of investment in education, early warning systems,
establishing a volunteer network, and emergency planning has led to a significant
reduction in the number of casualties from tropical cyclones, storm surges, and tidal
and river floods. For example, in 1998, a major storm surge led to about 140 deaths
but, in a storm of similar magnitude in 1991, approximately 130,000 people lost
their lives. Flood forecasting and warning systems have also led to major reductions
in casualties in China in recent years (e.g. Huaimin 2005). Similar improvements
can also be cited in many other countries where, due to improvements in flood
warning systems, the risk to loss of life from flooding has reduced markedly.
Approaches to flood warning, forecasting and emergency response are constantly
evolving as technical advances are made, lessons are learned from flood events, and
ideas are adapted from other technical disciplines. For example, technological
developments in recent years have included the introduction of short range rainfall
forecasting techniques (nowcasting) which typically combine weather radar observations with the outputs from Numerical Weather Prediction models, and of multimedia systems for issuing warnings. Much social and behavioural research has also
been performed into public understanding of, and response to, flood warnings, in
some cases building on research in other disciplines, such as health care and emergency response for other natural hazards. Improvements can also be driven by
national legislation, rising public expectations, customer satisfaction surveys, performance monitoring, and the introduction of level of service targets (e.g.
Andryszewski et al. 2005). Risk based and probabilistic approaches are also
increasingly being evaluated and used operationally, building on ideas from meteorological forecasting and elsewhere; for example, in techniques for prioritising investment, and ensemble forecasting. Increasingly, improvements are performed within
a framework of targets for flood warning performance at a national level.
Chapters 24 discuss the topics of detection, threshold setting and dissemination
for flood warnings, whilst Chapters 911 discuss the preparedness, response and
review stages. The remaining chapters (Chapters 58) cover flood forecasting for
rivers and coastlines.
Improved quantitative and qualitative weather forecasting products are available in such a way that these can be directly used for flood forecasting.
Medium-range weather forecasting and climate prediction tools can be
applied to extend warning times and produce pre-warning information.
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services have improved their
capacity to cooperate to jointly deliver timely and accurate flood forecasting
information.
Integrated weather, climate and hydrological forecasting information are
available in a relevant format for use by civil organizations responsible for
disaster preparedness and mitigation.
1 Introduction
Fig. 1.2 Overall status of national flood forecasting and warning services (sample-86
countries) (Reproduced from the WMO Strategy and Action plan for the enhancement of
cooperation between National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for improved
flood forecasting, courtesy of WMO)
Level I flood forecasting and warning services are limited or not operational, and a significant upgrading and strengthening of the basic data
collection and transmission networks is required, together with improvements in the coordination between meteorological and hydrological services and in the dissemination of flood warnings.
Level II the basic infrastructure is in place for flood forecasting and
warning services but improvements are needed in data management and
flood forecasting modelling, with training in advanced modelling techniques, and some improvements in coordination between meteorological
and hydrological services.
Level III well established flood forecasting and warning services using the
latest observation and forecasting techniques, and with warnings generally
communicated through various media to Government and Civil Protection
Agencies, industry and the public. The main requirement identified here
was for improved training and staff capacity in some cases.
Fig. 1.3 Main symptoms of insufficient or non-existent national flood forecasting capability (sample-86 countries) (Reproduced from the WMO Strategy and Action Plan for the
enhancement of cooperation between National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
for improved flood forecasting, courtesy of WMO)
1.2
1.2.1
1 Introduction
Flooding is a threat to many communities and businesses, and flood risk is increasing in some locations due to development on floodplains, migration to urban areas
at risk from flooding, and artificial influences on flow regimes; for example, urban
developments can sometimes increase flood risk through changes to runoff characteristics and the drainage paths of floodwater. Climate change may also be increasing the likelihood of flooding in some places through changes in the frequency and
severity of storms, patterns of snowfall and snowmelt, and rising sea levels.
Estimates by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)
suggest that, in the period 19742003, there were more than 200,000 victims of flooding, with many more people affected for every casualty. In that period, the July 1974
and December 1999 floods in Bangladesh and Venezuela each accounted for about
30,000 deaths, and flood events in India and China accounted for seven of the ten disasters which were identified as affecting more than 100,000,000 people (all figures from
Guha-Sapir et al. 2004). During 2007, flooding due to heavy rainfall affected approximately half of all African countries, affecting more than 1,000,000 people with about
400 victims whilst, in India, Bangladesh and Nepal, the death toll from monsoon rains
exceeded 2,000 and affected some 30,000,000 people.
Compared to other types of natural disaster, floods account for approximately
2040% of the events which are reported. Floods can also cause extensive damage
to property, infrastructure and crops, and can cut across administrative and national
boundaries. For example, the 1998 floods in China were estimated to have submerged more than 200,000 km2 of farmland (e.g. Kundzewicz and Jun 2004) whilst,
for Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, in addition to causing more than 1,000
deaths, hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated, and billions of dollars of
damage was caused to property, businesses and infrastructure, much of this flood
related. Other examples include the Midwest floods of 1993 on the Missisippi and
Missouri rivers in the USA, which affected more than 15% of the country, damaging or destroying some 50,000 homes, with approximately 54,000 people evacuated
(Smith 2004) whilst, in Europe, the flood events of 2002, 2005 and 2006 affected
thousands of people in central Europe, and caused more than 100 deaths.
The causes of flooding are mainly atmospheric or geotechnical (Table 1.2).
Atmospheric hazards include heavy rainfall, causing rivers to flood, sometimes
linked to snowmelt and ice-jams in colder climates, and coastal and estuarine flooding due to surge, wave and wind effects, most notably in tropical cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons. Geotechnical factors such as landslides, debris flows and
earthquakes can also lead to raised river levels causing inland flooding, and
Tsunami waves resulting in coastal flooding. Secondary effects may include overtopping or breaches of river and sea defence structures, debris blockages at bridges
and other structures, surcharging of drainage networks in urban areas, and dam
failure or overtopping. Due to the short time available for people to react, fast
Example
Atmospheric
Frontal depressions
Thunderstorms
Monsoon
Tropical cyclones
Geotechnical
Snowmelt
Ice jams
Glacial lake outburst
flows
Dam break
Defence breach
Tsunami
Debris flow
developing floods present a particular risk to life, including flash floods, dam or
defence breaches, and some ice-jam and local surge and wave overtopping events.
Tropical cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons are all forms of tropical storm, with
the term tropical cyclone used in the Indian Ocean, hurricane in the Atlantic and
Eastern Pacific Oceans, and typhoon in the Western Pacific. Frontal depressions are
most common in mid-latitudes, and can cause prolonged rainfall, as can monsoons
which are driven by seasonal variations in temperature between sea and land
masses. Thunderstorms can occur at most latitudes, and can cause intense rainfall
for periods of typically up to a few hours. Snow and ice related problems affect
many high latitude regions on all continents, and high mountain ranges elsewhere. Dam and defence risks are possible anywhere that reservoirs or polders have
been constructed, or dams built across lakes, as are breaches in river or coastal
flood defences (often known as levees or dikes). Tsunami can affect all ocean
basins, but are most prevalent in the Pacific Ocean and in South East Asia (although
the December 2004 Tsunami was in the Indian Ocean). Debris flows are a major
problem in Central Asia and the Caucasus and in parts of the USA.
1.2.2
Flood risk is often expressed as the combination of two factors; probability (or
hazard) and consequence (or impact). The probability expresses the likelihood of
damaging flood levels or flows being reached, whilst the consequence can
be expressed in terms of indicators such as the numbers of properties affected, loss
of life, or economic damages.
10
1 Introduction
Estimates for the numbers of people at risk from flooding, and affected in individual events, are of course subject to many uncertainties, including the degree to
which events are reported, the approach taken to flood risk assessments and, for
international comparisons, differences in the datasets and recording methods which
are used. However, some studies (e.g. Parker 2000; Smith 2004) suggest that the
percentages of people at risk from flooding range from 3% to 5% of the population
in the UK and France, to about 12% in the USA, 50% in the Netherlands, and
7080% in Vietnam and Bangladesh. Estimates are also complicated by transient
populations, which can include tourists, hikers, temporary workers, business travellers,
and the homeless. Indeed, in some countries, such as the USA, one of the main risks
to life from flooding is from people in cars and other vehicles being trapped or
swept away by floodwater (e.g. Henson 2001).
The link between flood risk and social, political and economic factors, particularly
risk to life, is well documented, and can arise from issues such as a lack of public
awareness of flooding issues, or controls on floodplain development, limited funds
available for flood control and protection (e.g. river and sea defences), low resilience
of buildings to flooding (e.g. temporary compared to permanent settlements), and a
lack of investment in flood warning, forecasting and emergency response systems.
Where these factors are significant, the numbers of people affected by a flood event
can be much higher than equivalent events in locations without these problems.
Measures of vulnerability to flooding are also increasingly considered in flood
risk studies: for example, combining the following factors (e.g. Wade et al.
2005):
Of course, vulnerability to flooding can depend on a wide range of physical, environmental, social, economic, political, cultural and institutional factors, and can vary
widely between individuals, households and communities; for example, the length of
time that people have lived in the floodplain (or if they are visiting the area e.g. tourists),
recent experience of flooding, and local institutional capacity to respond to flooding.
Some alternative definitions (e.g. World Meteorological Organisation 2006c) express
vulnerability in terms of physical, material, constitutional, organisational, motivational
and attitudinal conditions or, for tropical cyclones (e.g. Holland 2007), include the availability of existing community level plans and organisational structures, the proportion
of cyclone resistant property, the state of protective works (river and coastal defences
etc.), and the likely protection from coastal forests and mangroves.
When designing a flood warning scheme, a starting point is often to make an
assessment of the locations and numbers of people and properties at risk from
flooding. Vulnerability studies can also highlight where to target effort in public
awareness campaigns, developing flood emergency plans, and in emergency
response. Methods for assessing risk include interviews with people who know the
11
area well, examination of historical flood records (trash mark surveys, aerial and
other photographs, newspaper reports, satellite images etc), and hydrodynamic and
other modelling techniques.
Interviews and historical records can provide useful information, although may
give a false impression if any significant changes have occurred since the last major
flood event in the level of flood risk or key flooding mechanisms (e.g. construction
of flood defences, dredging, urban development). Also, people may not be aware
of more serious flooding before they moved to the area. Ground survey and remote
sensing techniques can also provide detailed maps of flooding extent, although not
necessarily for the peak of the flood, and satellite observations are increasingly
being used to monitor flood extents using both optical and microwave frequencies,
and to build up databases of flood extent information.
Models provide a more formal way of assessing flood risk, and can range from
simple correlation and other methods for single locations, through to detailed
hydraulic models for river and coastal processes. Some countries (e.g. the USA,
Japan and various European countries) have programmes in place to systematically
assess flood risk at a national scale through detailed hydraulic modelling of locations
with a significant flood risk (Box 1.2).
12
1 Introduction
However, whatever the technique used to assess flood risk, one problem is
always to assess the extent of mobile and transient populations who may not appear
in conventional property and census databases. Examples can include vehicle users,
shopping centres, supermarkets, tourists, hikers, outdoor events, and locations such
as caravan or mobile home parks, and camp sites. Local visits, and discussions with
people who know the area well, may be the best way of determining the extent of
this risk, and the options (if any) for providing warnings to these groups, or preventing access in time to minimise the flood risk.
Some other problems which can arise with property databases are that they may
omit some commercial properties with significant numbers of occupants during
working hours, since the correspondence address is at another location (e.g. head
13
office), and that some locations with many residents (e.g. apartment blocks) may
appear as only a single property. Also, some high-risk locations may not be clearly
identified, such as water treatment or industrial works and critical locations such as
hospitals, power stations, telecommunications hubs etc. Again, local visits and
discussions can help to resolve some of these issues.
1.3
Emergency Response
14
1 Introduction
Businesses can also take actions to reduce damage to stock, equipment and systems
and, depending on the time of day, may also be able to advise employees not to
come in to work, or to leave early, in order to minimise risk.
Flood warnings can also assist river management and coastal authorities with the
operation of structures and in other actions to help to reduce or prevent flooding
and some examples (Fig. 1.4) include:
Fig. 1.4 Examples of river and coastal flood defences and a flood gate for washland drainage
15
Temporary and demountable barriers are increasingly used for flood prevention, and
consist of metal, plastic, rubber and other types of panels, bags or tubes which can be
placed at locations where flooding is anticipated, if a flood warning is received in time.
Chapters 911 describe emergency response in more detail, including the development of flood emergency plans, decision support systems, dealing with uncertainty, and performance monitoring.
1.4
16
1 Introduction
Railway
Dam
Dam
Overtopping
Major road
Wave
Village
Town
Defence
Town Overtopping
River Out
of Bank
Surge,
Tide,
Wave
Town
Power Station
River, tide,
surge
Farms
Caravan Park
River Out
of Bank
Chemical
Factory
Town
Surge,
Tide,
Waves
Fig. 1.5 Illustration of flooding issues which might be included in a regional flood forecasting
model
for example, for the situation shown in Fig. 1.5, a range of rainfall runoff, reservoir
(dam), river, estuary (delta), and offshore, nearshore and wave overtopping models
might be required, optimised to provide forecasts at towns, infrastructure, and
transport routes where they are at risk from flooding.
One distinguishing feature of forecasting models, compared to off-line simulation models, is the ability to use observed (telemetered) data to modify forecasts as
they are generated. Thus, if the forecast at the present time is in error, it can be
adjusted to account for the current observed values, and also into the future, based
on assumptions about the cause of errors up to the present time (time now), and
likely future trends. This real time updating of forecasts (or data assimilation) can
significantly improve the accuracy of model outputs, and many techniques have
been developed, including error prediction methods and techniques which adjust
the internal state of model components, or model parameters.
One reason for needing updating techniques is the uncertainty in model outputs,
which can arise from many sources. For example, outputs can be affected by errors
and uncertainties in measurements of rainfall and levels and flows (for rivers), and
wind speed, wind direction, wave height and tidal levels (for coastlines).
If meteorological forecasts are used to extend warning lead times, additional
uncertainties arise from that component of the system.
These issues have long been recognised (e.g. World Meteorological Organisation
1994; Emergency Management Australia 1999; Beven 2008) and it is widely
accepted that flood forecasts should be issued with an indication of confidence or
uncertainty. The case for probabilistic forecasts in hydrology has been concisely
summarised by Krzysztofowicz (2001), which is that:
17
First, they are scientifically more honest than deterministic forecasts: they allow
the forecaster to admit the uncertainty and to express the degree of certitude
Second, they enable an authority to set risk-based criteria for flood watches,
flood warnings, and emergency response; and they enable the forecaster to issue
watches and warnings with explicitly stated detection probabilities
Third, they appraise the user of the uncertainty; and they provide information
necessary for making rational decisions, enabling the user to take risk explicitly
into account
Fourth, they offer potential for additional economic benefits of forecasts to every
rational decision maker and thereby to society as a whole
18
1 Introduction
Part I
Flood Warning
Chapter 2
Detection
Most flood warning systems use near real time measurements of meteorological
and river or coastal conditions to guide operational decision making. Depending on
the application, this may include information on rainfall, wind speeds, sea state,
tidal levels, river levels and other parameters, such as snow cover. Remote sensing
techniques such as weather radar and satellite may also be used, together with the
outputs from Numerical Weather Prediction models and nowcasting techniques.
This chapter provides a general introduction to these and other techniques for monitoring meteorological, river and coastal conditions for flood warning applications.
Telemetry systems are also discussed, together with approaches to designing telemetry
networks for flood warning applications.
2.1
Meteorological Conditions
With only a few exceptions, such as geotechnical risks (see Chapter 8), most flooding problems are linked to atmospheric conditions, and observations or forecasts of
rainfall and other parameters often provide the first indication of potential flooding.
The main types of meteorological information which are useful in flood warning
and forecasting applications include:
Note that weather forecasting techniques are included in this chapter as a form of
detection since, as with site specific and remote sensing techniques, the outputs
represent another source of information for the operation of flood warning and
forecasting systems.
When considering these approaches, there are various trade-offs in terms of the
spatial resolution, accuracy and lead times of each technique. For example, site
K. Sene, Flood Warning, Forecasting and Emergency Response,
Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2008
21
22
2 Detection
2.1.1
23
Table 2.1 Some common requirements for meteorological data and forecasts in flood warning
and forecasting applications
Parameter
Category
Examples of techniques
Rainfall
Raingauges, disdrometers
Satellite, weather radar,
microwave links
Numerical Weather Prediction
models, nowcasting
Capacitance probes, neutron
probes, lysimeters
Satellite (e.g. Synthetic
Aperture Radar)
Numerical Weather Prediction
models, nowcasting
Ablation stakes, snow pillows,
snow cores
Satellite based optical or
infrared channels
Numerical Weather Prediction
models, nowcasting
Automatic Weather Stations
Satellite based infrared sensors
(temperature)
Numerical Weather Prediction
models, nowcasting
Satellite, weather radar
Storm scale/mesoscale Numerical
Weather Prediction models,
nowcasting
Solar radiation, net radiation (or
individual components), soil
heat flux
Evaporation pan, turbulence
measuring devices (also
indirect methods using
wind speed, radiation and
humidity)
Numerical Weather Prediction
models, nowcasting
Weather forecasting
Soil moisture
Snow cover
Remote sensing
Weather forecasting
Radiation
Evaporation
Weather forecasting
fixed pathway between two sensors. Alternatively, methods such as the Penman
equation are widely used for estimating open water evaporation from wind speed,
temperature, humidity and (possibly) net radiation measurements, with the Penman
Monteith approach used for estimating evapotranspiration from grass, vegetation
etc.
Often the various sensors can be combined into an automatic weather station,
which may monitor some or all of the following parameters:
24
2 Detection
Fig. 2.1 Examples of inland and offshore automatic weather stations (Kevin Sene and Crown
Copyright 2007, the Met Office)
Rainfall
Air temperature
Humidity
Wind speed and direction
Solar and net radiation
Soil or water temperature
Figure 2.1 shows two examples of automatic weather stations, consisting of a temporary installation above a tropical lake in Southeast Asia for a study into long term
trends in lake evaporation (Sene et al. 1991) and a buoy mounted instrument being
inspected off the coast of the UK.
Of the various meteorological parameters which could be monitored, for flood
warning and forecasting applications, perhaps the two of most interest are rainfall
and snowmelt, and these are described in more detail below.
2.1.1.1
Rainfall
For measuring rainfall, tipping bucket raingauges are probably the most widely
used method for flood warning and forecasting applications, and record rainfall
when the depth reaches a sufficient amount (or weight) to cause a bucket mechanism to tip. Typical bucket sizes are equivalent to rainfall depths in the range
0.12.0 mm, with the choice of tip size often based on the maximum rainfall intensities
25
anticipated at the site. Each tip is recorded, together with the time of the tip, and
can be reported by telemetry directly, or accumulated to fixed time intervals before
transmission.
Weighing raingauges, by contrast, use springs, vibrating wires or balance
weights to record the weight, and hence depth, of rainfall, whilst drop-counting
gauges (e.g. Stow et al. 1998) use optical techniques or electrodes to record individual drops of a fixed size released through a constriction. Depth type gauges
accumulate rainfall and use an electrode (e.g. Oi and Opadevi 2006) or float
mechanism, linked to a recording device, to record the depth of rainfall and hence
the incremental changes in given time intervals.
Disdrometers, which use a laser or ultrasound beam to detect falling rainfall, are
a newer technique for recording rainfall. These devices work on the principle of
detecting the passage of raindrops through a beam of light (e.g. Nemeth 2006) or
ultrasound, with appropriate signal processing to estimate rainfall amounts. In principle this approach requires less maintenance than traditional raingauges since
there is no capture of rainfall. Factors to consider include processing for a range of
droplet sizes (and fall velocities), for different types of precipitation (rainfall, snow,
hail etc.), and for wind driven effects as rain passes through the beam. Low cost
(micro) vertically pointing precipitation profilers are also another recent development for single site measurements of rainfall.
Manually operated (storage) raingauges can also be useful for providing rainfall
information to assist with post event evaluations of flooding, and more generally to
improve understanding of the rainfall distribution in a region or catchment when
developing rainfall runoff forecasting models. Measurements are typically made on
a daily or monthly basis.
Best practice in the installation and use of raingauges, and the strengths and
limitations of different designs, is well documented (e.g. World Meteorological
Organisation 1994b, 2000) but some specific problems which can arise in high
wind and rainfall conditions include:
For flood warning or forecasting applications, the recording interval to use will
depend on the capability of the equipment and associated electronics, but should
ideally be sufficiently frequent to resolve the key features of events. Typically a
5 minute, 15 minute or hourly value is used.
More generally, for all types of site specific measurement, the question arises of
how representative the measurements are of overall catchment conditions, and of
appropriate techniques to use for estimating catchment average rainfall for input to
rainfall runoff forecasting models. Box 2.1 describes some techniques for estimating
catchment average rainfall.
26
2 Detection
Arithmetic mean which simply takes the average value for all selected
raingauges, giving equal weight to all gauges without considering their
spacing or the rainfall distribution in the catchment.
Thiessen polygons in which polygons are derived by joining the mid
points of the lines between adjacent raingauges, with the weights based on
the proportion of the catchment area attributed to each gauge within the
catchment, divided by the catchment area.
Isohyetal method which derives lines of equal rainfall based on the
observed values, from which a catchment average value can be
derived.
Surface fitting methods which include a range of automated techniques,
such as multiquadratic, inverse distance, triangular planes (TIN) and
polynomial methods.
Geostatistical techniques such as Kriging which also interpolate values
but using functions for the dependence of values on distance between
gauges for all combinations of gauges. Methods such as co-Kriging also
bring in auxiliary variables such as elevation or aspect.
Additional factors such as topography, aspect, runoff coefficient, and soil type
can also be brought into some of these weighting schemes.
The methods are presented in approximately increasing order of complexity and accuracy and there have been numerous studies into the merits of the
various approaches (e.g. Creutin and Obled 1982; Goovaerts 2000). In particular, elevation and rain shadow effects can be significant, as illustrated in Fig.
2.2 for average annual rainfall estimates for the Lesotho Highlands, whose
peaks rise to approximately 3,500 m in places.
Analyses of weather radar data and computer modelling can also assist
with understanding storm characteristics, such as typical storm scales, preferred directions of travel, local topographic influences etc., and in developing
appropriate catchment averaging schemes. Sometimes it is found that, where
there are no anticipated major spatial variations in flood generating rainfall
(e.g. frontal events in low lying areas), the simpler fixed weight methods can
provide reasonable results. However, where spatial and topographic variations
(continued)
27
Fig. 2.2 Annual rainfall distribution along a transect through the Lesotho Highlands
(Royal Meteorological Society/Sene et al. 1998)
are significant, more complex methods may be required if real time systems
and software are available to support this type of analysis.
2.1.1.2
Snow Cover
Information on snow depth, water equivalent and snow extent can be required for
input to the snowmelt forecasting component of flood forecasting models, and also
for more empirical techniques for estimating the consequences of snowmelt.
The challenge in snow monitoring is that the depth and type of snow cover can
vary significantly over small distances compared to typical catchment scales, so
that only a limited sample of values can usually be obtained.
Satellite monitoring can assist in assessing snow coverage, whilst observation
techniques for estimating depth include snow (or ablation) stakes and snow cores.
Traditional depth measuring techniques rely on an observer sending values by telephone, email, radio etc., but automated techniques have also been developed. For
example, radio isotype methods can be used in which the water equivalent of snow
is estimated from absorption of gamma radiation in the vertical or horizontal plane
and, in principle, can provide real time estimates of water equivalent snowfall (e.g.
World Meteorological Organisation 2000). Tipping bucket raingauges can also be
used to measure the water equivalent snow depth if they are fitted with heaters,
although may under-record the true amount of snowfall, and show a lag between
28
2 Detection
snowfall and the recorded values. Measurements of air temperature may be used to
help in interpreting the readings from raingauges when snowfall is thought to be a
factor.
Perhaps the most extensive ground based monitoring of snow depth and extent
is by the SNOTEL (SNOwTELemetry) monitoring network in the USA (Schaefer
and Paetzold 2000). Observations were started in the mid-1970s and the network
consists of more than 700 automatic sensors installed in mid and high elevation
areas of the western United States and Alaska to record snowpack, precipitation and
temperature, typically at hourly intervals. For the snowpack component, a typical
installation includes one or more snow pillows, consisting of a flat circular container filled with non-freezing fluid, and a pressure sensor to record the changes in
hydrostatic pressure due to the weight of the snow layer. A downward looking sensor may also be used to monitor snow depth. Some sites also include automatic
weather stations, soil moisture and soil temperature sensors. Data transmission is
by meteorburst telemetry (see Section 2.3) and power is from battery packs and
solar panels. A snow pillow network is also used in Norway, supplemented by satellite and manual observations, to monitor snow conditions for flood forecasting and
other applications (Rohr and Husebye 2005).
2.1.2
Remote Sensing
2.1.2.1
Weather Radar
29
Fig. 2.3 View of the internal workings of a weather radar, and the Chenies Radar in the UK
( Crown Copyright 2007, the Met Office)
Dual polarisation use of horizontal and vertical polarisation to help with identifying hydrometeor shapes and hence types (e.g. with larger drops showing
more deformation between planes).
Multiple beams to detect vertical variations in reflectivity to assist in correcting radar outputs for gradient and other effects, including the option of multiple
level scans.
Doppler to detect the direction of motion of hydrometeors to help in filtering
out ground clutter and estimating wind speed and direction.
The power of the reflected signal decreases with the range of the precipitation from
the radar due to attenuation by droplets, dust and other factors, and the spread of
the beam. The beam may also be transmitted at a positive angle to the horizontal,
and may overshoot precipitation at lower levels, including orographic growth of
rainfall in hilly regions and evaporation and wind drift/dispersion at low levels.
The use of a slight negative beam angle is also used for some weather radars in
mountainous regions. However, the beam will eventually either overshoot rainfall due
to the curvature of the earth, or encounter terrain causing anomalous reflections.
The accuracy of a weather radar therefore decreases with range, so a regional or
national radar network is often designed to achieve an acceptable coverage at a reasonable cost, perhaps focused on areas with the highest rainfall or flood related
risks. For flood warning and forecasting applications, another option is to use a
denser network of low cost short range radars to infill gaps in the main radar
network in areas of interest such as major population centres, or as the main component
30
2 Detection
of the radar network; for example, for the Local Area Weather Radar network in
Denmark (Pedersen et al. 2007).
In addition to considerations of range and beam angle, the outputs from a
weather radar may in addition be affected by meteorological factors (e.g. Collier
1996) such as:
Bright band due to the beam intersecting the melting layer increasing reflectivity
Anaprop caused by distortion of the beam in strong temperature or humidity
gradients, causing the beam to intersect the ground surface causing false returns
Ground clutter intersection of the beam with hills, mountains and other obstacles (e.g. buildings, masts)
Hail causing an increase in the strength of the reflected signal compared to
rainfall
Drop size distribution assumptions about typical distributions may be less
valid in certain conditions, such as drizzle
Many of these factors can be reduced by post processing of the received signal,
including linking into other sources of information such as the outputs from
Numerical Weather Prediction models. Areas of research include making use of
real time information on rainfall from vertically pointing radars, microwave communication links and disdrometer installations, and using Digital Terrain Models to
help in identifying sources of ground clutter.
The signals from individual radars are also often combined to produce a so-called
composite or mosaic image. Measurements are usually presented on a gridded basis,
after being transformed from the original polar coordinates. Many radar systems have
a range of sophisticated visualisation and analysis software, for example allowing
rainfall estimates to be accumulated at catchment level, sequences of radar images to
be animated, and values to be sent to other systems (e.g. flood forecasting systems).
Examples of composite images at a continental scale include the outputs from the
NEXRAD system of radars in the USA, and the OPERA project, which combines
more than 150 radar outputs for countries across Europe (e.g. Harrison et al. 2006).
If the raingauge network is of sufficient density and quality, radar estimates of
rainfall may also be adjusted to take account of raingauge measurements of rainfall,
in an attempt to correct for low level and other effects missed by the radar. The methods
used include multi-quadratic, Bayesian and other techniques (e.g. Moore et al. 2004;
Todini 2001). In applying these techniques, of course, there are also uncertainties in
the accuracy of the raingauge measurements, and in particular how representative
they are of the spatial distribution of rainfall. In addition to using raingauges, the radar
outputs can also be improved using outputs from Numerical Weather Prediction models,
satellite imagery, wind profiles and other sources of information (e.g. lightning
detectors), and this type of nowcasting product is described later.
The resolution at which radar data is provided depends on the type of signal
processing algorithms used, and the distance from the radar. In the UK, for example, values are available at grid lengths of 1, 2 and 5 km, and 5 or 15 minute time
intervals, depending on the distance from the radar (the corresponding ranges
are up to 50, 100 and 250 km). Figure 2.4 illustrates the appearance of images at
these scales for a heavy rainfall event in the south of England.
31
Fig. 2.4 Illustration of weather radar images at a resolution of 1, 2 and 5 km ( Crown Copyright
2007, the Met Office)
In the figure, the distance between the towns of Oxford and Watford is approximately 60 km. The figure shows that the degree to which a weather radar can resolve
the spatial distribution of rainfall depends on the grid resolution, which in turn depends
on the distance of the catchment from the nearest radar. Signal quality may also be
influenced by topographic and other effects, particularly in mountainous regions.
32
2 Detection
Radar coverage maps, typically estimated using digital terrain models, and line of
sight calculations, can give an indication of the likely resolution and coverage of
radar for a given location or catchment.
2.1.2.2
Satellite
Satellite observations offer the potential to provide estimates of rainfall and other
parameters (e.g. sea state) for input to river and coastal flood forecasting models, and
are routinely assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction and nowcasting models.
Images of cloud cover are also widely used by flood warning services, although
the quantitative use of information, such as estimates of rainfall rate, is much less
widespread, in part due to the relatively coarse resolution of measurements compared to the scale of some smaller catchments. Some examples of geostationary
satellite systems which have been used in flood forecasting applications include:
Meteosat operated by Eumetsat and the European Space Agency for weather
forecasting including infrared, visible and radiation budget sensors
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) operated by the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for weather forecasting with multiple sensors
33
Other Techniques
Some other remote sensing techniques which have been considered for rainfall
detection in flood forecasting applications include:
Microwave techniques estimate the path averaged rainfall rate from the attenuation
in the signal, and could potentially make use of the extensive transmitter networks
used by cell phone operators (e.g. Leijnse et al. 2008). For example, as part of the
MANTISSA project (Rahimi et al. 2003; Holt et al. 2005), experiments were performed using dual frequency microwave links with path lengths from 9 to 23 km for
a catchment in the northwest of England, and results compared with raingauge and
weather radar estimates of rainfall. Uncertainties can arise from unknowns such as
the drop shape, temperature and size distributions.
Lightning detection methods (e.g. Price et al. 2007) aim to provide forecasts from
the short term up to a few hours ahead for heavy rainfall linked to thunderstorms.
Lightning activity can be monitored remotely at a global level using space and
ground based observations, and in principle can be used to track the progression of
thunderstorms. Historical rainfall-lightning relationships can be established from
past records, and used together with satellite observations and Numerical Weather
Prediction models to estimate rainfall intensity in real time. Lightning data is also
assimilated into some forms of nowcasting model as described in the next section.
2.1.3
Weather Forecasting
34
2 Detection
The distinction between these two approaches is not clear cut, since Numerical
Weather Prediction models also make extensive use of observed data from the sea,
ground, air and space to initialise model runs via a process called data assimilation.
A simple definition here is that a nowcast is a short term forecast, based primarily
on weather radar, typically for times of up to 36 hours ahead.
Seasonal forecasting systems, combining statistical and other modelling
approaches, are also increasingly being used, and have been used in forecasting
snowmelt, for example (see Chapter 8).
2.1.3.1
Numerical Weather Prediction models form the basis of the forecasting service
offered by many meteorological services, and solve approximations to the equations describing mass, momentum and energy transfer in the atmosphere (e.g.
World Meteorological Organisation 2000).
The equations may be solved over a global domain, or domains limited by horizontal extent. The boundary conditions for the limited area models are then derived
from the larger scale models (i.e. the models are nested). The equations are usually
solved on a layered grid, with typical horizontal scales of 10100 km for global
scale operational models, and 110 km for local models, and up to 100 layers representing vertical development in the atmosphere. Local models may be called local
area, mesoscale or storm-scale models, depending on the type and spatial extent of
modelling approach adopted.
Sub-models may be included for a range of processes, including cloud development and decay, energy and water transfer at the ocean and land surfaces, and
interactions with topography and other obstacles. As noted earlier, models are
initialised using a process called data assimilation which can be a major undertaking, using measurements taken from raingauges, weather stations, weather
radar, lightning detectors, aircraft, ships, wave buoys, radiosondes, satellites, and
other sources. Models typically run on a 1, 6 or 12 hourly timestep, and the data
assimilation component can often take a significant proportion of the time
between model runs.
35
Model outputs can include the wind field, rainfall, potential temperatures, specific
humidity, surface pressure, evapotranspiration, snow depth, surface and soil temperatures,
soil moisture, cloud water and ice, and other variables. Other outputs can include
the convective cloud base and cloud top elevations, sea surface roughness, vertical
velocities, and other parameters.
Results are usually processed further into specific products which vary from
country to country but may include a general outlook, synoptic charts, surge forecasts, daily forecasts, strong wind warnings, heavy rainfall warnings, flash alerts,
and other forms of output tailored to meet each users requirements. Other types of
output which may be useful in hydrological applications include estimates for soil
moisture conditions and snow cover.
Due to the intrinsic uncertainties in both the models, and the data assimilation
process, it is now standard practice in many meteorological services to use an
ensemble forecasting approach, in which the initial model state is perturbed and
multiple realisations of model runs are performed to provide an indication of the
uncertainty in the forecasts.
With current computing power, typically of the order of 10100 ensemble runs
are performed at each time step. In some countries (e.g. the Netherlands), the
ensemble outputs may be presented as part of national weather forecasts on television in the form of an estimated range of values for parameters such as air temperature or rainfall, or as probabilities of occurrence. Multi-model techniques are also
used, in which the outputs from several models are displayed in a common format
to see the variability between different formulations (e.g. Garcia Moya et al. 2006;
Rotach et al. 2007).
Probabilistic and ensemble forecasts are also increasingly being introduced into
flood forecasting applications, and are discussed further in Chapters 5 and 8.
For river flood forecasting applications, a key requirement is often to translate the
meteorological model outputs to a scale more appropriate to hydrological modelling.
Both statistical and dynamical techniques are used (e.g. Rebora et al. 2006;
Schaake et al. 2005). Statistical techniques can include multi-fractal cascades, nonlinear autoregressive models, and processes based on the superposition of rainfall
cells at different scales (cluster models). Dynamical techniques can include nesting
of higher resolution atmospheric models for the catchment or region of interest
within models with a coarser resolution but wider spatial extent (e.g. Environment
Agency 2007). For large catchments, upscaling may also be required to help to preserve hydrological spatial characteristics over large distances, particularly where
there are significant topographic or climatic variations.
2.1.3.2
Nowcasting
The term Nowcasting covers a range of techniques which use spatial extrapolation
of current observations of rainfall from weather radar, sometimes guided by or
combined with the outputs from Numerical Weather Prediction models. For short
36
2 Detection
lead times, these techniques can perform better than Numerical Weather Prediction
models, and their relative simplicity allows more frequent model runs (e.g. every
few minutes) and higher model grid resolutions (e.g. 110 km). The maximum lead
times provided can be several hours, although values of 36 hours are often quoted.
Nowcasting methods often use the assumption that, if the speed, size and direction
of travel of a storm is known at the present time, then the future development can be
estimated by extrapolation, at least at short time scales. Methods range from simple
extrapolation of current conditions, neglecting possible growth or decay, to techniques
using a wide range of sources of information to help to estimate the future evolution
of a rainfall event or thunderstorm or tropical cyclone (e.g. Franklin et al. 2003).
A more sophisticated approach is to use the outputs from Numerical Weather
Prediction models. Forecasts can then be generated by extrapolating the motion of
areas of rainfall, using the wind fields and other forecast outputs from these models
to guide this response, including allowance for the development and dissipation of
rainfall (e.g. Golding 2000; Wilson 2004). Sub-models may be included to forecast
the development of convective cells (thunderstorms) using conceptual (life-cycle)
models and probabilistic techniques.
As with Numerical Weather Prediction models, ensemble and probabilistic
approaches are increasingly being used in Nowcasting, with research also considering how seamless ensembles can be generated covering a range of timescales, from
nowcasting through to Numerical Weather Prediction and seasonal forecasting.
For example, the Short Term Ensemble Prediction System STEPS (e.g. Bowler
et al. 2006) recognises the inherent uncertainty in forecasts over a wide range of
scales, including the fact that smaller scales are shorter lived and less predictable,
and blends extrapolation, stochastic noise and Numerical Weather Prediction model
outputs on a hierarchy of scales. The system generates 50 member ensembles of
rain rate and accumulation at a 2 km grid, 5 minute resolution to provide forecasts
at lead times of typically up to 6 hours ahead.
2.2
Near real time measurements of river and tidal levels, wave conditions, and river
flows are important in many flood warning and forecasting applications. There is
much in common between the techniques used for river and coastal monitoring,
although river gauges may be affected by debris and sediment loads, whilst tidal
gauges may experience a harsher environment in terms of salinity and wind and
wave loading. Various types of instruments are also deployed in the open oceans
although are not described here, including free drifting floats, ocean gliders, and
ship-borne measurements.
For river monitoring, depending on the nature of the catchment, information
may also be required on levels in reservoirs and off-line storage reservoirs, on flow
depths on floodplains, and for ice conditions, pump settings or flows, borehole levels,
37
and other parameters. For both river and coastal monitoring, additional information
may also be required on gate settings (e.g. at reservoirs, or tidal barriers), and the
condition of river and sea defences and other key assets, particularly if there is a
suspected risk of breaching or overtopping. Some monitoring techniques for these
applications are discussed briefly in Chapter 8.
The techniques used for river and coastal monitoring are well established (e.g. World
Meteorological Organization 1980, 1998; Hershey 1999; Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission 1994) and only a few key points are presented here, together with
some recently developed techniques. It is convenient to categorise techniques as follows:
Position monitoring devices are not described in detail but include shaft encoders,
ice motion detectors (e.g. doppler radar, or instruments linked by wire to plates
anchored in the ice), and strain gauges. Fixed or panning CCTV and webcams for
visible light, low light or infrared are also increasingly used for monitoring locations prone to blockages, ice formation, or other problems, and for estimating
parameters such as wave overtopping rates at sea defences.
For flood forecasting and warning applications, unless manual observations are
used, all devices require a means of translating movement into an electrical signal
for data logging, and onward transmission by telemetry. Instruments should also be
installed with electronics above the highest likely flood levels. Only instruments
suitable for telemetry are described in the following sections.
2.2.1
Level monitoring devices record water levels using a range of techniques including:
Float recorders a float contained in a stilling well, installed either in a downpipe within the water body, or set into the ground and connected by a horizontal
pipe to the river, reservoir or sea. The float moves up and down with water levels,
causing the pulley from which it is suspended to rotate, and the rotation is
detected electronically by a shaft encoder.
Pressure transducers are typically submerged at the end of a downpipe which
acts as a protective conduit for the wire connecting the device to the data logger.
The pressure which is recorded depends on the depth of water above the sensor.
Pressure sensors have also been used in urban areas to detect flooding on roads,
for example.
38
2 Detection
Bubbler gauges typically release bubbles of inert gas (e.g. nitrogen) or air from
an orifice and are supplied from a gas canister or compressor. The pressure
required to displace water from the submerged orifice depends on the water
pressure and hence the depth of water above the device. Such devices also
include a pressure sensor, and are sometimes called pneumatic gauges.
Downwards looking devices include radar, ultrasound and acoustic devices
suspended above the water surface by a purpose-made frame, or from existing
structures (e.g. bridges, piers), which estimate levels based on the time of travel
of transmitted and reflected signals. Although acoustic devices can be operated
in the open, usually they are contained within a narrow sounding tube contained
within a stilling well (e.g. for tidal monitoring), whilst radar and ultrasound
devices do not normally require a protective conduit for the beam.
Sensor networks are a newer technology (pervasive or grid computing)
consisting of networks of small low power pressure sensor devices with integral
microprocessors and transmitters (e.g. radio or microwave), programmed to
collaborate to form networks which can reconfigure automatically if any one
sensor fails, and are much cheaper to install and operate than conventional instruments
(e.g. Hughes et al. 2006).
Satellite altimetry is widely used for monitoring ocean levels, and shows
potential for monitoring of river levels, particularly on large rivers (e.g. Beneviste
and Berry 2004; Xu et al. 2004; Zakharova et al. 2005).
For river applications, the time interval for measurements can be set at a value based
on the expected rate of rise and fall of river flow hydrographs or reservoir levels, and
ideally would provide several values on the rising limb in a flood warning application
(although this may not always be practicable in a fast responding river).
Figure 2.5 shows a float in stilling well and a pressure transducer installation.
The examples are for a river float in stilling well device, and a reservoir pressure
transducer installation with radio mast and a staff gauge for manual observations.
Each method has its own strengths and limitations. Devices installed below the
water surface face the risk of damage by debris during a flood event, or blockage of
the equipment by sediment or ice. In some countries, heaters or other forms of protection may be required to ensure operation in ice conditions. For tidal applications,
and to a lesser extent reservoirs and lakes, the gauge output may also be affected by
wave action. Individual sensor types of course have their own limitations, and may
require corrections for drift, temperature effects, density effects and other factors.
In rivers, downward looking devices may return ambiguous signals when there
is significant debris floating on the water surface (trees etc.). For all types of device,
data recording and transmission may be affected by floodwater if the data logger
and telemetry electronics are installed at too low a level or in a location prone to
erosion or impact by debris. Also, datum values need to be established and regularly checked so that water level measurements are consistent over time and can be
related to national datum values. Tidal gauges may also incorporate a datum probe
or switch which operates at a known sea level so that datum offsets or errors in the
tidal record can be identified.
39
2.2.2
For flood warning applications, measurements of levels may sometimes be all that
is required. Indeed, compact self contained units are available commercially combining a pressure transducer or float recorder with a solar power or battery supply
and a direct connection or telemetry link to a warning device (e.g. a bell, siren or cell
phone) which is triggered if one or more preset levels is exceeded (see Chapter 4).
However, for many river monitoring applications, an estimate of flow is
required and, unless a purpose made flow monitoring gauge is installed (see
later), values must be obtained by calibration of a stage-discharge relationship or
40
2 Detection
Stage (metres)
10
0.1
0.1
10
Discharge (cumecs)
100
1000
41
Tidal influences tidal influences affecting water levels at the gauge, perhaps
only for exceptional tides
Channel profile changes changes in the channel bed profile at or near the site
due to erosion, scour, sedimentation, dredging etc., and changes in the river
cross section as levels rise (e.g. flows going out of bank onto a floodplain or
bypassing the station)
Ice cover formation of ice constricting river flows to varying degrees at certain
times of the year, causing backwater effects for ice downstream, throttling flows
for ice cover next to the instrument, and with a range of effects for ice cover
upstream
Hysteresis differences in flow values for rising river levels and falling river
levels
These and other factors can cause curves to change with river depth, season and
over time, leading to multiple equations valid only for given periods or seasons.
Also, errors in the high flow end of stage-discharge relationships are perhaps one
of the main sources of uncertainty in flood forecasting models. However, the stage
discharge approach is probably the most widely used method internationally for
estimating flows in rivers.
Some techniques for extending curves include hydraulic modeling (1D, 2D or
3D), slope-area methods, based on peak water levels estimated from photographs,
maximum level recorders, or from trash left after flood events, and velocity-area
methods, based on direct survey of the river cross section area, and extrapolation or
estimates of velocity.
Given the uncertainties in estimating river flows from levels alone, various techniques have also been developed to provide a more direct measurement of flows,
although are often significantly more expensive in terms of initial capital costs.
The main types of device include:
Ultrasonic devices which measure flows at one or more depths by the travel
times of ultrasound waves between senders and receivers set at angles (typically
in the range 3060 degrees) to the main river flow. The average velocity at each
depth can be estimated from the difference in time of travel between pulses with
an upstream and downstream component, and can be integrated to provide an
estimate of overall flow.
Electromagnetic devices which record the electromotive force induced by
water flowing over a coil buried in the river bed, which is notionally proportional
to the water velocity. The signal is detected by electrodes in the river banks, and
additional probes may be required to allow corrections to be made from other
electromagnetic sources near to the station.
42
2 Detection
For all three techniques, it is usually necessary to make a number of spot gauging
measurements when the instrument is first installed to check or establish the calibration. Also, for gauging stations in particular, but also for ultrasonic and electromagnetic devices, occasional spot gaugings are often made during routine operation
to check for any drift in the calibration.
All three types of device can be affected by the problems of ice, algae, weed
growth, sediment and damage from debris, although electromagnetic instruments are
less affected by weed growth. In addition, for gauging structures, the usual assumption
is that the depth at the structure is controlled at the structure, and is independent of
levels downstream. However, under high flow conditions, structures may drown out,
so that the theoretical relationship no longer applies. One approach to estimating flows
at structures where this occurs is to install a second level recorder downstream and to
use theoretical or modelled relationships to estimate flows in these conditions.
To provide better sensitivity to changes in depth, some structures also include
changes in channel cross section, with additional channels becoming effective at
higher flows, and only a narrow channel in operation at low flows. V notch weirs
also achieve a similar effect. In flood warning and forecasting applications, another
option is sometimes to calibrate an existing structure, built for other applications
(e.g. navigation, irrigation), if it provides a stable control on water levels.
One newer technique which shows some promise is the use of automated computer analysis of video camera images of existing tracers (e.g. foam, flotsam) on the
water surface (e.g. Creutin et al. 2003). The technique, Particle Image Velocimetry,
gives an estimate of surface flow velocities, which can be related to overall
flows either using standard formulae or previous current meter measurements.
The method relies upon suitable tracers being present on the water surface, and can
be affected by shadows and reflections; however, it offers the promise of being able
to estimate flows at a low cost from remote locations. Similar trials have also been
performed using hand held or bridge mounted radar devices.
2.2.3
Wave Monitoring
In flood warning applications, estimates of wave height and direction are useful to
assist in deciding whether to issue coastal flood warnings, and for input to coastal
flood forecasting models. Typical wave periods might only be a few seconds, so the
information is usually recorded over intervals of a few minutes or more and
expressed in terms of the spectral properties of the wave field, from which key
statistics such as significant and maximum wave heights, dominant and average
wave period and direction, wave spread, mean water level, wind speed and direction,
and wave spectra, can be estimated. The output across a number of wave monitoring
locations provides a spatial picture of wave distributions.
43
The main techniques for monitoring waves include (Massel 1996; World
Meteorological Organisation 1998):
For sub-sea devices, the signal can be transmitted by cable to the shore, or to a
nearby buoy to be transmitted by radio or satellite. Pressure transducers are the
most widely used method, with the pressure at the instrument varying with wave
height. The resulting spectrum is then corrected for hydrodynamic attenuation with
depth. However, depth corrections start to be of a similar magnitude to typical wave
pressure signals for water depths much beyond 1015 m, and also tend to filter out
higher frequency signals, limiting the depths at which pressure transducers can be
used (e.g. World Meteorological Organisation 1998). Vertically pointing echo
sounders can also be used, although the signal may be affected by bubbles from
breaking waves.
Measurements at the sea surface are typically made from wave buoys, in which
the vertical acceleration is measured using an accelerometer mounted on a gyroscopically stabilised platform, although solid state techniques are increasingly
used. Wave heights can then be inferred from the acceleration terms. Motion can
also be monitored in the two horizontal planes (roll and pitch) to provide spectral
estimates of wave direction. Some devices also use Global Positioning Systems
(GPS), and solid state inertial motion sensors which provide combined values for
surge, sway, heave, roll, pitch, yaw and heading. Telemetry can consist of radio or
satellite links. Lightships can also be used, in which the accelerometer output is
combined with pressure sensor outputs to detect horizontal motions. A ship provides a more stable platform, although is less sensitive to smaller waves, whilst a
buoy needs to be carefully installed so that the mooring does not influence the
motion significantly.
These methods are more appropriate for deep water, and shallow water techniques include capacitance probes and resistance probes, which can be mounted on
structures such as piers or platforms. These devices consist of a series of sensors
along a board (wave staff), where the signal depends on the depth of wave immersion, although can be affected by breaking waves. Devices which use ultrasonic or
electromagnetic velocity meters can also be used to measure the two horizontal
components of wave orbital velocity which, in conjunction with a pressure recorder
or capacitance or resistance probe, can provide useful directional information.
Downward looking devices of the types described earlier, such as laser, infrared,
and acoustic range finding devices, can also be used to monitor waves if a suitable
platform is available, although can be affected by reflections and other influences
from the structure.
For model calibration, satellite based estimates of long term wave state can be
derived using synthetic aperture radar and other spaceborne instruments, although
for polar orbiting satellites observations at a given location are only made once
every orbit. Shore based high frequency radar also provides a method for monitoring wave states and sea surface currents over large areas.
44
2 Detection
2.3
Instrumentation Networks
Flood warning and forecasting systems usually rely on a network of meteorological, river and/or coastal instruments. Individual types of instrumentation may also
be combined; for example, an automatic weather station may be installed on a wave
buoy, or a raingauge at a river gauging station.
Monitoring networks can also serve a range of purposes in addition to flood
warning and forecasting, such as water resources monitoring, marine forecasting,
and climate change monitoring, requiring a compromise between these different
applications. For example, a water resources gauge may be installed close to a river
confluence to monitor the entire runoff from a catchment but, at high flows, suffer
from backwater influences from the main river, possibly making it unsuitable for
use in a flood forecasting application.
For new sites, issues of site permissions, power supply, access for installation
and maintenance, and other factors may lead to gauges being installed in locations
that are not ideal. The requirements for telemetry connections may also influence
the locations at which gauges are installed. The following sections discuss some
options available for telemetry of real time information, and give a brief introduction to the design of networks for flood warning applications. Chapter 11 also discusses some of the economic considerations in network design, and in choosing an
appropriate solution tailored to the level of flood risk.
2.3.1
Telemetry Systems
For telemetry of real time data, the following options are widely used in flood warning and forecasting applications (e.g. World Meteorological Organisation 1994b):
Telephone lines (PSTN) connections via land-lines using the public switched
telephone network. Each instrument has a unique telephone number which can
be dialled to retrieve data or check the condition of the instrument.
Mobile telephone (GSM, GRPS) similar to PSTN lines but using cell phone
technology.
Radio Ultra High Frequency (UHF) or Very High Frequency (VHF) communication links.
Satellite transmission from the instrument to an orbiting or geostationary satellite for relay to a ground station.
Meteorburst use of naturally occurring ionisation in the atmosphere left by meteor
trails to reflect radio waves between a base station and outstation. Meteor impacts
are sufficiently frequent that reasonable data transfer rates can be achieved.
Internet broadband, Ethernet and wireless connections.
Each approach has advantages and limitations and Table 2.2 provides some examples of these considerations.
Other considerations can include power consumption, licence requirements, and purchase and installation costs. Some generic examples of use of these techniques include:
45
Strengths
Possible limitations
Telephone, broadband,
local wireless ethernet
Cell phone
Radio
Probably no connection
charges other than radio
licence fees once the
network is established
User retains full control of
the network
Satellite
Meteorburst
No requirement to establish
a network
Signals can be transmitted
over long ranges
There are also many national and regional examples of applications of these techniques; for example, in the United Kingdom, the public switched telephone network
46
2 Detection
(PSTN) is used almost exclusively for data links to river and raingauge instrumentation whilst, in the USA, the Meteorburst system is used for transmitting data from
the snow monitoring SNOTEL network described in Section 2.1. Manual systems,
in which levels are relayed by telephone or radio, are still widely used in some
countries.
For the limitations which are listed, many potential solutions have been devised by
suppliers, and can work well in some situations. Also, careful design can eliminate
some problems. Networks consisting of more than one type of telemetry link are also
an option if no single method is appropriate, or if backup transmission routes are
required at each instrument in case of failure of any one method (e.g. radio backed up
by cell phone). Interfaces may also be required to locally operated systems, such as
the SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) systems which are sometimes used at reservoirs, hydropower schemes and other control structures.
The connections to individual instruments typically consist of a data logger, to
keep a record of values which can be downloaded at each visit, and a modem, to
translate the signal into a form suitable for transmission by telemetry. The logger
and data link may allow for multiple sensors, as with an automatic weather station,
for example. Additional channels may also be used for sensors internal to the
instrument or the logger/modem housing to monitor the status and environmental
conditions of the instrument; for example, battery or solar panel condition, air temperature, and humidity, and sometimes a GPS unit for time and location information (e.g. for satellite telemetry).
Telemetry connections can be bi-directional or one way only. Simplex connections are links in which the instrument sends packets of data at predefined times, or
when a critical threshold is exceeded, whilst duplex connections allow downloading
of data on demand. A duplex system provides the flexibility to increase the sampling
(polling) rate of instruments when required (e.g. as a flood starts to develop) and also
allows the operational status of the instrument to be checked remotely. By contrast,
simplex systems are cheaper to install and operate, although with the risk of communications clashing between instruments if they transmit at the same time.
Overall control of a telemetry network is typically from one or more central
computers which will periodically poll, or update, values from the network. Modern
data gathering systems typically include a wide range of functionality including:
47
Alarms can include rainfall depth duration values, river level thresholds, tidal level
thresholds, and other types of threshold (see Chapter 3). Some systems may also be
programmable, so that simple flood forecasting models such as level to level correlations can be operated on the telemetry system as a back up to the main forecasting
system. Also, multicriteria alarms and rules might be included (e.g. IF X > Y AND
Z > A THEN). In control rooms, large wall mounted mimic panels can help
with providing an overview of current system status against a backdrop of key
information, such as reservoir locations, towns and catchment boundaries, although
are increasingly being replaced by computer displays.
A hydrometeorological database is usually either an integral component of the
system, or may be operated alongside the system as a long term repository for the
near real time data. Many such systems are available commercially or have been
developed by national hydrological and meteorological services, and the functionality might typically include:
For database and telemetry systems, most modern systems provide options to facilitate the exchange of spatial and time series data through agreed data formats (e.g.
XML) and metadata standards.
2.3.2
Network Design
The topic of network design for river flood warning and forecasting applications is
covered in a number of guidelines, manuals and papers (for example, World
Meteorological Organisation 1994a, 1998; USACE 1996; NOAA/NWS 1997;
Environment Agency 2002, 2004; Sene et al. 2006), although recommendations can
be specific to local meteorological conditions (desert, mountain, tropical etc.), the
types of flooding mechanisms experienced, and other catchment and coastline
specific factors.
Some general issues to consider in network design include:
The accuracy, reliability and lead time requirements for flood warnings
The likely performance of any new or existing instrumentation under flooding
conditions
48
2 Detection
Here, flooding conditions can include high river or tidal levels, and the associated
high winds and heavy rainfall which often accompany flood events, and an assessment of likely performance under these conditions usually forms part of the design
study (e.g. is the instrument range sufficient to monitor all likely conditions, and
are the electronics above likely maximum flooding thresholds). Backup power units
and lightning conductors may also be needed and, in cold climates, heaters may be
needed to ensure operation in snow or ice.
The lead time requirement for flood warning can also influence network design.
For example, for river monitoring sites, to assess local conditions, ideally an instrument would be installed at or near the location for which flood warnings are
required. However, typical rates of rise of river levels in flood events may be so fast
that the flood warning threshold level would have to be set to a low value to achieve
a useful lead time, causing too many false alarms.
Some ways of extending the lead time would therefore be to install a gauge further upstream, or to develop a forecasting model to the original proposed gauge
location. Both methods introduce some uncertainty into the flood warning process,
and both approaches might be used to help to reduce that uncertainty, possibly also
using data assimilation and a probabilistic approach for the forecasting component,
as described in later chapters.
Similarly, for coastal locations, a tide gauge may be available at or near the location of interest, but if, for example, several hours of advance warning are needed to
evacuate properties or to operate a tidal barrier, then locations further afield would
need to be considered (or additional instruments installed), probably combined with
use of surge forecasting models. Offshore monitoring also provides early warning
of deep swell and Tsunami events not linked to local storms. For locations with
complex wave and surge patterns (e.g. some harbours, and coastal reaches), on site
monitoring is often the only way to resolve these effects.
For raingauges, the flood warning or forecasting requirement may be simply to
give an idea of rainfall in the general area, or to provide estimates of catchment
rainfall or rainfall distribution for lumped or distributed rainfall runoff models. If
the raingauge density is insufficient, then additional raingauges might be installed,
including gauges in nearby river catchments. Existing alternatives, such as weather
radar, might also be considered, if the coverage and accuracy is sufficient in the
locations of interest.
Given that major operational decisions may be taken based on the data provided,
the issue of reliability (or resilience) is also important, and often one or more
backup instruments may be identified in case of failure of any one instrument during a flood event. For a river monitoring gauge, that might be a gauge further
upstream, whilst for a tide gauge another gauge might be selected from the same
coastal reach. Backup instruments might also be installed at the same site or nearby
locations, particularly in high risk locations (e.g. city centres).
49
Digital terrain models for radio path or line of sight studies, for estimating
catchment characteristics (area, slopes, elevations etc.), and for viewing potential instrument locations against a backdrop of topography, flood risk locations,
and other factors
Hydraulic and hydrological analyses to study the likely response of the catchment or coastal reach at the proposed instrument locations (e.g. rate of rise of
levels for typical events, typical depth-duration values for rainfall, times of travel
of flood or surge waves from distant locations, possible backwater and confluence influences etc.)
Meteorological analyses using historical raingauge data, weather radar data and
possibly Numerical Weather Prediction model outputs to help in developing an understanding of flood generating conditions, with the likely scale, speed, and direction of
storms all being important factors in deciding on appropriate raingauge locations
Temporary gauges installation of temporary gauges, maybe without telemetry, to
investigate river or coastal characteristics at potential sites, and to check site security and feasibility (e.g. risk of vandalism, objections from nearby residents etc.)
More generally, it is often worthwhile considering other current or planned applications of the data; for example, for other purposes (e.g. water resources monitoring,
ocean climate monitoring, port and harbour operations), or for providing flood
warnings to additional locations. For example, considerable cost savings can sometimes be realised by considering opportunities to share data between departments
or organisations, or by finding alternative nearby site locations which would serve
more than one purpose.
Another consideration, particularly for flood forecasting applications, is the level
of uncertainty which can be tolerated. For example, for river forecasting models, it
is often not economically feasible to place raingauges and river gauges in all major
subcatchments, with the result that some inflows to the model (lateral inflows) will
need to be estimated, introducing a source of uncertainty into the process. Also, it
might be desirable to install more raingauges to obtain a better idea of rainfall distribution in and around the catchment, and to upgrade gauging stations so that they are
better able to record accurate values at high flows. These various trade-offs and
compromises are all part of the process of network design, and in part are one of the
motivations for the increasing interest in using probabilistic and ensemble techniques to help to quantify the uncertainty (see Chapters 58 for examples).
Chapter 3
Thresholds
Flood warning thresholds define the meteorological, river and coastal conditions at
which decisions are taken to issue flood warnings, whilst flooding thresholds are
the values at which flooding occurs. Normally, a flood warning threshold will be
set to achieve an acceptable lead time before the flooding threshold is reached, or
may be time based (as with tropical cyclones, for example). Alternative names for
flood warning thresholds include triggers, criteria, warning levels, critical conditions, alert levels and alarms, and sometimes a range of values will be required as
warnings are escalated from advisories (or watches, or pre-warnings) through to
full warnings. Threshold values may be set based upon experience or analysis of
historical data, or using conceptual, data based or process based modelling studies.
Values may be fixed (static) for all flood events, or dynamic, varying depending on
how each event unfolds. This chapter describes a range of techniques ranging from
simple fixed flood warning thresholds through to probabilistic approaches, together
with several examples of approaches to performance monitoring of thresholds.
3.1
Rainfall Thresholds
Observations or forecasts of heavy rainfall often provide the first indication of likely
river flooding. Some typical uses of rainfall thresholds are for the initial mobilisation
of staff (e.g. opening an incident room), and moving to an increased frequency of
monitoring river conditions and operation of flood forecasting models.
Rainfall values can be obtained from observations (e.g. raingauges, weather radar,
satellite) or forecasts (e.g. nowcasts, Numerical Weather Prediction models), with
observed values usually providing higher accuracy, but with a shorter lead time before
the onset of flooding. Best practice is to calibrate methods directly to the type of input
data (or forecasts) to be used operationally, to account for any systematic or other
differences between rainfall measurement and estimation techniques. Rainfall
amounts can also be used directly to initiate flood warnings although, due to the
various uncertainties in how rainfall translates into river flows (see later), this
approach is used much less widely, with a greater risk of a high false alarm rate compared to warnings based on river levels.
K. Sene, Flood Warning, Forecasting and Emergency Response,
Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2008
51
52
3 Thresholds
For some types of rainfall inputs, such as weather radar observations, or rainfall
forecasts, rainfall values will usually be available on a gridded basis, so that the
criteria for raising or displaying an alarm might apply to a single grid square, or to
the average value across a region or in a river catchment. Information on rainfall
amounts and accumulations can also be presented spatially; for example, as maps
of rainfall amounts with overlays of catchment boundaries, rivers, topography and
flood risk locations, and in terms of probabilities of exceedance (if using ensemble
rainfall forecasts). Spatial estimates for rainfall distribution can also be derived for
raingauges, if required, using the techniques described in Chapter 2.
Rainfall threshold (or alarm) criteria are often expressed in terms of the quantity
(depth) of rainfall in a given period (duration) which has the potential to cause
flooding. A range of depth-duration values may be used; for example, an alarm
might be raised if rainfall is forecast to exceed 25 mm in any 3 hour period, or
40 mm in any 6 hour period. Alternatively, thresholds may be expressed in rainfall
frequency terms calculated from a statistical analysis of historical records, such as
the 1% or 10% exceedance probability, or the 1 in 100 year or 1 in 10 year return
period. Values can be tested by analysis of long term historical rainfall records; for
example, by comparing the number of alarms which would have been raised compared to the number of actual flooding events (or near misses), and estimating the
number of false alarms which would have occurred (see Section 3.3).
Of course, rainfall values alone do not provide a full indication of flooding
potential, since the catchment characteristics (topography, land use etc.), current
catchment state (e.g. soil moisture, snow cover) and other factors (e.g. reservoir
levels) may also influence the magnitude and timing of flooding. Rainfall thresholds are therefore often combined with indicators of catchment response and the
current catchment state.
Table 3.1 illustrates a simple approach of this type, and is adapted from one of
several examples in Environment Agency (2002).
Here, the codes and locations are for three hypothetical Flood Warning Areas, and
the Forecast Rainfall values could be either best estimates, or worst-case scenarios.
The depth/duration pairs (e.g. 20/6) are in units of mm of rainfall, and hours, and
Table 3.1 Illustration of rainfall alarm criteria (Adapted from Environment Agency 2002;
Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2008. All rights reserved)
Flood Watch Criteria based
on SMD
6
12
18
hours hours hours
24
hours
SMD
(mm) <5
FW021 Bridgetown
3.8
5.8
8.8
10.8
39.0
FW022 Southford
3.0
5.0
8.0
10.0
50.3
FW023 Northtown
3.0
5.0
8.0
10.0
50.8
20/6
25/12
24/6
30/12
24/6
30/12
520
2140
>40
25/6
30/12
28/6
35/12
28/6
35/12
30/6
40/12
32/6
40/12
32/6
40/12
30/6
45/18
35/6
45/18
35/6
45/18
53
catchment conditions are expressed in terms of the soil moisture deficit (SMD), which
is the depth of rainfall which would be required to bring the catchment to saturated
conditions (i.e. the amount of water required to bring the soil to field capacity).
Some other possible indicators for catchment conditions (e.g. World
Meteorological Organisation 1994; USACE 1996) include recent rainfall, current
river flows, Catchment Wetness Index, Base Flow Index, Antecedent Precipitation
Index, and borehole levels. Where, as is often the case, direct observations are not
available, values are often computed from the soil moisture accounting component of rainfall runoff models (see Chapter 6) or as a secondary (diagnostic) output from the land-atmosphere component of Numerical Weather Prediction
models (e.g. Cox et al. 1999). Satellite based methods also show potential for
remote sensing of soil moisture.
Another approach to setting thresholds is to use a catchment rainfall runoff and
flow routing model to explore the rainfall amounts required to achieve flooding for
a range of durations and catchment initial conditions. One approach is to first derive
a typical storm profile from historical data, describing the variation in rainfall
during the course of an event. These values are then scaled by magnitude and duration, and the resulting synthetic storms used as input to the catchment model. For
each duration, the depth required to reach flooding thresholds is noted, perhaps for
a range of catchment conditions, and the resulting table of values can then be used
as the basis for estimating the rainfall thresholds for that location. Other factors,
such as reservoir drawdown at the start of an event, or the depth of water in off-line
storage areas, might also be considered in setting thresholds. Some possible criteria
for flooding thresholds include bank full flows, peak river levels exceeding a
threshold at which flooding commences, or flood flows of a given probability
(return period). The latter method is often used for ungauged catchments and in
ensemble forecasting approaches (see Chapter 5).
For example, these types of method form the basis of the Flash Flood Guidance
concept (FFG) developed by the National Weather Service in the USA (Sweeney 1992).
Flash Flood Guidance is defined as the amount of rainfall of a given duration over a
small basin needed to create minor flooding (bank full) conditions at the outlet of the
basin. The approach has been used operationally since the 1970s and was integrated into
a system called the Flash Flood Guidance System in 1992, and has more recently been
considered for providing early alerts for debris flows (NOAA-USGS 2005). Chapter 8.2
provides some examples of international initiatives using this approach.
In the original version of the method, threshold values of runoff were estimated
based on the outputs from a lumped rainfall runoff modelling approach. More
recent developments (National Weather Service 2003) have included improvements
to the method for areas of the country where rainfall intensity and land characteristics
have more influence on flash flooding than soil moisture (e.g. some desert regions),
and the introduction of a distributed (grid based) hydrological modelling approach
for estimating thresholds and for real time soil moisture accounting. Operationally,
estimates of rainfall depths and durations (e.g. 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours) are
compared with the threshold values appropriate to the estimated soil moisture
conditions. The resulting exceedance over threshold values can then be mapped.
54
3 Thresholds
Spatial analysis tools are also available to examine rainfall accumulations, rainfall
intensities and guidance values at point or catchment scale.
Some other developments in the area of rainfall threshold based approaches (e.g.
Martina et al. 2006; Georgakakos 2005, 2006; Reed et al. 2006; Collier 2007;
Fouchier et al. 2007) have considered or implemented systems which include various permutations of the following techniques:
Bayesian techniques requiring optimisation of a utility function combining the perception of stakeholders, historical losses, and perhaps the losses from false alarms
Alternative soil accounting approaches using a variety of conceptual and processbased catchment models
Artificial neural network methods which improve forecasting skill by learning
from meteorological and streamflow response
Thresholds based on the return periods/recurrence intervals of model flows
based on long term simulations using historical or synthetic rainfall data
Development of indicators of flash flood potential which can be searched in real
time including soil moisture, channel constriction/debris risks, storm depthduration, direction and velocity
Ensemble approaches are also increasingly being used, in which the probability of
rainfall is displayed on graphs, maps and tables and compared to probability based
thresholds. Risk-based approaches, combining probability and consequence, can
also be used, and Box 3.1 provides an example of an operational system in the
Netherlands which uses ensemble forecasts of rainfall to provide rainfall alarms to
assist with water management operations in polder regions.
Chapter 5 provides further information on ensemble forecasting techniques and
Chapter 10 gives more background on risk-based and cost loss approaches to
decision making.
In addition to the use of rainfall thresholds, various other meteorological indicators
have been considered for use in providing early warning of flooding, with an
emphasis on probabilistic techniques.
One of the earliest methods was a combined deterministic/stochastic approach
which was developed for application in the Mediterranean areas of France (Obled and
Datin 1997; Bernard 2004). Observations and forecasts of rainfall and other parameters at lead times of 23 days or more are linked to an archive of rainfall and other
parameters for past events; for example, geopotential or temperatures. The technique
can also be used at shorter lead times, using stochastic modelling to link observations
up to time now with likely future scenarios (again based on an historical archive),
with the option of conditioning forecasts on nowcasts and likely limits on daily rainfall for the catchment for the type of storm being observed.
Another approach is to use operational mesoscale and other Numerical Weather
Prediction models to monitor parameters which are thought to be good precursors
of flooding, including:
55
(continued)
56
3 Thresholds
These indicators can be calculated from wind, moisture, pressure and other fields
(e.g. Collier et al. 2005; Environment Agency 2007). These developments are often
linked to the general trend to develop higher resolution (storm scale) models better
able to forecast the development of convective and other events. Lightning activity
has also been considered as a possible indicator of the likelihood of heavy rainfall
and flash flooding (e.g. Price et al. 2007).
3.2
3.2.1
River and tidal thresholds (or triggers) are a key component in many flood warning
systems, and define the levels and possibly other variables (e.g. wind speed and direction)
at which the decision to issue a flood warning should be taken, or other actions initiated
57
(e.g. mobilisation of staff, more frequent monitoring). They are sometimes called
Action Thresholds. Some systems may also automatically issue a warning at these
levels without any human intervention (e.g. using email, sirens or pagers) although
there are many issues to consider in taking an automated approach of this type; for
example, the likely false alarm rate, and the possibility of missed warnings (see
Chapter 4). Other types of thresholds can include parameters such as ice motion and
river flows. Time based criteria may also be used in some situations; for example, the
time before landfall for hurricanes, typhoons and tropical cyclones (see Chapter 9 for
further discussion of this topic).
Observations are normally made by telemetry but, where this is not available, or
extra safeguards are required, observers and patrols may be deployed on site,
or other methods such as CCTV or webcams used. Community representatives may
also monitor conditions in some flood warning schemes. On site observations can
be particularly useful where site specific flood risks can occur, such as defences
breaching, waves overtopping at sea defences, or bridges being blocked by debris,
and as additional backup for high risk locations such as town centres.
Threshold values are normally defined based on a combination of experience,
analysis of historical data, and possibly detailed hydraulic and other modelling of
river or coastal response. Values are usually chosen to achieve the required warning
lead time, without causing an unacceptable number of false alarms and, for instruments at the location of flooding, are set in relation to the flooding threshold, as
illustrated in Fig. 3.2 for the case of a river level threshold.
Here, the flooding threshold is the gauge reading at which flooding impacts begin
(and for which a warning is required), such as property flooding, or flooding of roads,
or overtopping of flood defences (levees), and is sometimes called a Result
Threshold. In practice, the actual warning lead time will be less than the potential
River Level
Flooding Threshold
Flood Warning
Threshold
Time
58
3 Thresholds
value indicated in the figure since factors such as decision times, and flood warning
dissemination times, must be accounted for, as described in Chapters 4, 5 and 10.
Also, it is advisable to include some allowance (contingency) in the setting of values
to allow for uncertainty in data, models and event specific factors.
The terminology and approaches used vary between organisations and countries,
but some typical types of threshold (or trigger) include:
At site or local values where the flood warning is issued based on values at or
near the location for which the flood warning is required
Upstream or remote values where the flood warning is issued based on values at
a site further upstream in the river network, or further offshore or around the coast
in the case of coastal triggers, to provide additional lead time at the site of interest
Forecast values where the flood warning is issued based on the output from a
river or coastal forecasting model for the site or other location of interest
For each type of threshold, there is a trade off between the accuracy, reliability and
timeliness which can be achieved; for example, if a threshold is lowered, this normally
increases lead time, but may also increase false alarm rates (e.g. USACE 1996), whilst
forecast values may be set at a higher threshold (e.g. a flooding or result threshold) than
for at site values due to the additional lead time available from model outputs.
To provide additional lead time and resilience, a site may have more than one
type of threshold, with warnings being issued on the basis of exceedance of any one
value, or other permutations. Values may also be nominated as the primary, secondary (or backup) or failsafe threshold, with the choice depending on the relative performance of each type of threshold. Within each category of threshold, there may
also be a range of values for different operational and warning conditions. For
example, a site might have standby or alarm values which are set at a low level for
early warning of possible events, and mobilisation of staff, and a range of flood
warning values to escalate the severity of the warning as river or sea levels rise.
Also, as flood hazard mapping techniques improve, and flood warning dissemination systems become more sophisticated, it is increasingly becoming possible to
target warnings to smaller areas, or even to individual properties, with the advantages of reducing the number of false alarms experienced by property owners, and
allowing for a more phased approach to warning and evacuation of properties.
If this approach is used, then each zone or sub-area will have its own warning
threshold level, both for the At-Site gauge (if available) and for any Remote gauges
or Forecast values. Of course, the terminology and formats used for flood warning
procedures, and the criteria for escalating and downgrading alerts, differ widely
between organisations but the general principle of escalation of warnings, followed
by confirmation that the threat has passed, is widespread. Figure 3.3 provides an
example of this general approach for a river flood warning application.
In this hypothetical example, the Flood Warning Area at Newtown is divided into
four sub-areas or zones, identified by codes FW001 to FW004. The corresponding
warning threshold levels are shown for the At-Site gauge, and the Remote gauge would
also have its own set of values (not shown). If a forecasting model output is available,
that too would have a set of values based on a consideration of flooding thresholds,
59
FW004
FW003
FW002
FW001
IV
ER
Remote Gauge
At Site Gauge
To Bridgeham
Fig. 3.3 Illustration of at site and upstream thresholds (not to scale)
model lead times, and other factors. Table 3.2 provides a simplified illustration of how
these values might be implemented into a set of operational Flood Warning Procedures
for the At-Site gauge (sometimes called an Action Table or Flood Intelligence Card),
although it is important to note that the details of warning messages and operational
responsibilities differ widely between countries and organisations.
Values are expressed in terms of gauge readings, but absolute values might also
be included, relative to a national datum level. Other thresholds (sometimes called
Information Thresholds) might also be included to indicate other useful information, such as the highest level recorded at the site, and peak levels for historical
flood events. A similar table would also be produced for the Remote Gauge, with a
separate set of values.
As illustrated, the gauge at Newtown might also be a Remote gauge for another
Flood Warning Area further downstream, and an example is included for the town
of Bridgeham. Following the initial standby alarm, a series of flood warnings is
issued as the event escalates, and operational instructions are also issued where this
requires direct contact with other organisations or the public. As noted in Chapter 4,
this allows an audit trail of actions and decisions to be maintained during the event,
including any departures from the agreed approach as each warning level is
exceeded (for example, based on other information which may be available, such
60
3 Thresholds
Table 3.2 Illustration of flood warning thresholds for the example in Fig. 3.3
Observed level (m) Forecast level (m) Action required
3.2
>3.8
3.5
>4.0
3.8
>4.2
4.0
>4.4
4.2
>4.5
3.1
<2.5
STANDBY ALARM
Issue FLOOD WATCH: WW001 Newtown and
Bridgeham
Issue OPERATIONAL INSTRUCTION: OP001
Loud Hailer Patrol crew standby for Newtown
Record confirmation of receipt of FLOOD WATCH:
WW001 from Newtown Town Council, Power
Station at Newtown, Bridgeham City Council
Issue FLOOD WARNING: FW001 riverside paths
at Newtown
Issue FLOOD WARNING: FW002 riverside apartments at Newtown
Issue OPERATIONAL INSTRUCTION: OP002
start patrols along flood defences in Newtown
Town Centre, assign liaison officer to Newtown
Police Emergency Command Centre
Issue FLOOD WARNING: FW003 Newtown Town
Centre
Issue OPERATIONAL INSTRUCTION: OP003
Loud Hailer Patrol in Newtown Town Centre
Issue FLOOD WARNING FW004 power station at
Newtown
Issue FLOOD WARNING FW011 riverside properties in Bridgeham
Issue ALL CLEAR
FW001 Riverside Paths at Newtown
FW002 Riverside Apartments at Newtown
FW003 Newtown City Centre
FW004 Power Station at Newtown
FW011 Riverside Properties at Bridgeham
as information from operational staff observing river levels on site). Finally, an All
Clear is issued when the river levels have dropped back to standby levels, and the
forecast indicates that levels will continue to drop.
In this example, a forecasting model output is also available, and the Forecast
Thresholds are included in the procedures. The extent to which the Forecast Thresholds
are formally integrated will depend on organisational policy, the confidence in model
outputs, and the expertise and background of duty officers. Some examples of the way
that the forecast outputs could be used include:
1. Issue the warning either if the observed value is exceeded, or if the forecast value
is exceeded
2. Issue the warning if both the observed and forecast values are exceeded
3. Consider issuing the warning if the observed value is exceeded, using the forecast outputs to take the final decision
4. Generate warnings to individual properties or groups of properties from real
time forecasts of the inundation extent
61
Other possibilities might also be envisaged. A maximum forecast lead time (horizon)
or minimum observed level might also be specified, with forecasts at longer lead
times or for lower levels given less weight or not considered at all due to the
increase in uncertainty with increasing lead time.
The first approach takes advantage of the potential additional lead time from
forecasts, but raises the prospect of more false alarms if the model overestimates
levels. The second approach helps to guard against the risk of a model providing
erroneous outputs, but would possibly lead to less lead time in warnings, and could
result in missed warnings if the forecasting model underestimates levels.
The third approach relies mainly on the forecasting model outputs, with the observed
value acting as an initial alert level above which issuing a warning should be considered.
Another possibility is to introduce the concept of soft and hard limits, or a contingency
for uncertainty, in which there is a range of levels in which the duty officer can provide
an input to the decision making process, but once the hard limit is reached a warning
must be issued. This again increases the number of decision criteria, although some
forecasting and telemetry systems can help in automating application of this approach.
The fourth approach requires a forecasting model which is able to estimate flood
inundation extents in real time, such as a one-dimensional or two-dimensional
hydraulic model. The resulting extents can then be intersected with maps of property locations, and lists of property addresses and contact details generated for a
range of forecast lead times. In principle, these can then be used to automatically
generate warnings to individual properties (e.g. by telephone or cell phone) once
the forecast has been approved. However, this is a new and developing area, and the
issue of confidence in the model outputs again needs to be carefully considered
before implementing this approach.
Another factor to consider in deciding on the degree of automation is the worst-case
scenario of a widespread flood event. For a small number of locations, it may be practicable for a duty officer to inspect every output (observed levels, and forecast values,
if available) and take a decision based on experience and judgment. However, in a
major event, many hundreds of threshold levels may be exceeded during the course of
the event, and duty staff will have less time to consider the accuracy or appropriateness
of each value, except possibly in high risk locations, where major decisions need to be
taken (e.g. on evacuating population centres, or closing down key utilities). Similar
considerations apply for very fast responding catchments or coastal reaches.
3.2.2
62
3 Thresholds
The distinction between these methods, and forecasting models of the type
described in Chapters 58, is not clear cut, and threshold based techniques, as
described in the previous section, can also be viewed as a simple type of forecasting, based on assumptions about typical rates of rise and travel times for flood
events. Here, the distinction is taken to be:
The advantage of using paper based techniques is that the methods can be applied
by staff without computer skills, and are quick and cheap to implement. Also, where
more sophisticated techniques are available, the methods can be used as a backup in
case of system failure (e.g. due to power cuts), and as a cross check on the plausibility
of the outputs from more advanced techniques. For example, an observer on site
might relay observations of river levels by telephone or hand held radio for a duty
officer to use, even if both the telemetry and forecasting systems have failed.
Similarly, if the methods are implemented on a telemetry system, then this can provide additional backup and resilience to the flood forecasting system, and modern
telemetry systems are often capable of running simple types of model.
Simple forecasting techniques include correlations (single and multiple regressions), multicriteria approaches (e.g. look-up tables, carpet plots, nomograms),
transformation matrices, rate of rise triggers, and time of travel (isochrone) maps.
3.2.2.1
Correlations
Correlations are widely used in flood warning applications, and relate parameters
at the location where an estimate is required to real time observations or forecasts
at one or more remote locations.
For rivers, correlations are usually performed in terms of river levels or flows,
and can be calculated using either peak values for a number of representative historical events, or values for the full flow range. Peak to peak correlations are sometimes called Crest Stage forecasts, and Fig. 3.4 shows two examples (World
Meteorological Organisation 1994).
The first figure shows a peak level to level correlation between two river stations, whilst the second shows a set of correlations in which the choice of relationship depends on current runoff conditions. Other secondary variables may be used
including snow cover, air temperature, soil moisture, and time of year.
Whole hydrograph correlations are usually estimated assuming a typical lag time
between upstream and downstream stations. An optimum value can also be estimated by
repeating the calculation for a range of assumed lag times and finding the value which
gives the smallest correlation coefficient. Correlations are normally performed in
63
Fig. 3.4 Examples of level to level and flow to flow correlations (Reproduced from the WMO
Guide to Hydrological Practices Data Acquisition and Processing, Analysis, Forecasting and
Other Applications, courtesy of WMO)
terms of levels since this avoids the need for a rating equation or stage discharge relationship at each site to convert levels to flows (see Chapter 2). However, levels at an individual gauge can be affected by other influences, such as backwater effects from tributaries,
gate operations or tidal influences, which can introduce additional uncertainty into the
relationship. One of the risks in this approach is also that these effects may only become
apparent in large flood events, beyond the range of calibration. Flow based correlations
help to avoid this problem, but as noted introduce the uncertainties arising from stage
discharge relationships (where used), and can only be applied between sites for which
flow estimates are available.
Correlations can also be affected by inflows, storage and losses between the two
stations being used (e.g. tributaries, or spills onto floodplains, or lakes and reservoirs),
and by the extent and motion of storm events over the catchment. One option in this
situation is to use a multiple regression approach to include other records in the relationship, such as gauges further upstream, and on tributaries or floodplains (e.g. Torfs
2004), or lake or reservoir levels. Another consideration is whether a correlation
derived from peak values should be applied over the full flow range to derive a forecast hydrograph. This approach is often used operationally and sometimes works
well, although it is important to note that lag times and wave speeds vary over the
flow range, so that the shape of the rising limb of the hydrograph can be considerably
in error, which is important if the errors are close to flood warning threshold values.
Correlations can also be used in tidal applications, with examples including single or multiple regressions for the following situations, often including a time delay
factor between the observed or forecast point and the location for which the estimate is required:
Estuaries relating levels at a point in the estuary to tidal conditions and/or river
levels upstream
Tide Gauges (observations) relating levels at a tide gauge to conditions at gauges further around the coast; for example, to estimate the likely development of surge events
64
3 Thresholds
Tide Gauges (forecasts) relating offshore forecasts of level from a surge model
at one or more node points to conditions at the shoreline
Additional parameters which may be included are wind speed and direction, and
possibly wave heights. Relationships are often expressed in the form of look up
tables advising on when to issue warnings for various combinations of actual or
forecast tide levels, wind speed, wind direction, maximum surge, and maximum
wave heights.
Some other ways of presenting information include equations, nomograms or
carpet plots. For example, Fig. 3.5 shows an example of a flood warning plotting
chart for an estuary location in North West England where water levels are influenced by both fluvial flows and tidal levels (although in this case the graph represents the theory behind the model and has now been replaced by automated
forecasting techniques, including use of tidal forecasts). The chart gives estimates
of levels at Lancaster Quay based on forecasts for tidal levels at Fleetwood Dock
and river flows at Caton.
For both rivers and coastlines, hydrodynamic and other numerical models can
also be used to guide the development of correlations and other types of threshold,
such as time based thresholds. Multiple model runs can be performed for a wide
range of scenarios to explore the key influences on flood response at the location(s)
of interest, possibly deriving a range of relationships for different initial conditions
Fig. 3.5 Example of a flood warning plotting chart for a coastal location (Environment Agency
2004, Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2008. All rights reserved)
65
for snow cover, reservoir storage and other factors, and examining response for
levels beyond the range of the historical data. In some cases, a considerable amount
of exploratory work may be required to determine the appropriate combinations of
variables to use in real time.
This approach is often used for generating operational look up charts and tables
to assist with the operation of tidal barriers, for example. As another example,
transformation matrices derived from detailed off-line scenario modelling for
wave transformation and overtopping are used operationally in coastal flood warning
procedures for some locations around the coast of England and Wales (Environment
Agency 2004a). Models of this type can also be implemented in real time, if the
model run time is short enough, and the model stability and convergence is acceptable,
and Chapters 6 and 7 discuss this topic in more detail.
3.2.2.2
For river catchments, time of travel or isochrone maps (e.g. World Meteorological
Organisation 1994) can be a useful aid in flood warning applications, and show
estimated or typical travel times from the onset, centroid or peak of a rainfall event,
to the peak of flows being observed at various points in the river network, or travel
times between locations in the network. Values can be presented in the form of
tables, graphs or as shaded or contour maps of equal travel times. Figure 3.6 shows
an example of a time of travel map based on times to the lowermost point in the
catchment (World Meteorological Organisation 1994).
Fig. 3.6 Example of an isochrone map (Reproduced from the WMO Guide to Hydrological
Practices Data Acquisition and Processing, Analysis, Forecasting and Other Applications, courtesy of WMO)
66
3 Thresholds
In this case, the lines of equal time (isochrones) were estimated assuming an
average velocity of flow in the river channels, whilst some other methods for estimating
the time of travel include:
Area based methods using empirical overland flow models to estimate velocities
3.2.2.3
Persistence Methods
Another simple forecasting technique is to assume that some aspects of the current
observed response will persist into the future. Some approaches which have been
applied operationally include:
Rate of rise methods which extrapolate the rate of rise of a hydrograph or tidal
levels as levels rise towards threshold values. Typical or fastest likely rate of rise
values can be estimated from historical data and/or hydrodynamic modelling
results for a number of events and then used operationally to forecast the likely
time of crossing of thresholds. Rate of rise values can also be estimated dynamically during an event, in which case parameters which can be varied to optimise
the performance of the model include the averaging time over which the rate of
rise is calculated, and the required lead time. An optimisation can then be performed to maximise the success rate of warnings, and minimise the number of
false alarms (e.g. Graham and Johnson 2007). Similar techniques can also be
applied to reservoirs, in which different categories of warning are issued based
on the current water surface elevation, and the rate of rise of levels.
Constant offset in which a constant value is applied to observed data to compensate for event specific factors. For example, Tissot et al. (2005) compare a
simple persistence based method with a range of more sophisticated modelling
67
techniques in which the differences between observed tidal levels, and the estimated tidal harmonics, are assumed to persist for the duration of the forecast.
3.3
Performance Monitoring
Threshold based approaches to flood warning are widely used and may be progressively improved using experience gained over successive flood events.
For example, for a river gauging station, if post event analysis shows that a warning was issued too late at a site, then the warning threshold might be lowered to
allow more lead time, although possibly at the expense of an increase in false alarm
rates. Similarly, if a threshold is resulting in too many false alarms, then after careful analysis the value might be increased, provided that this does not increase the
risk of missing actual events. Alternatively, more accurate approaches might be
investigated, such as development of a flood forecasting model.
As part of the development of a flood warning service, it is usual to review the
performance of flood warning thresholds on a regular basis, and after each major
flood event, and when other changes occur which may influence performance (e.g.
flood defence construction work, dredging, instrument replacements, changes in
forecasting models etc.).
Flooding thresholds should also be regularly reviewed, although it is less likely that
they will need adjusting. However, some examples of when this might be required
include when a flood defence is raised or repaired changing the level at which it is
likely to be overtopped, and if additional properties require adding to the warning
system. As with all components of an operational flood warning system, any changes
to thresholds and alarms should be fully tested and documented before implementation, and discussed with key stakeholders who may be affected by those changes.
A wide range of methods can be used for monitoring the performance of thresholds.
Similar techniques can also be used at the design stage of a flood warning scheme to
explore how values would have performed based on the historical data available to date.
In practice, the values used are often a compromise between the need for an adequate
warning lead time, to avoid missing flood events, and to minimise false alarms rates.
Values for warning lead times can be estimated by examining historical records to
determine the time difference between crossing of the warning and flooding thresholds.
Note that this time is not the same as the lead time provided to recipients of flood warnings which, as noted earlier, may include additional time delays; for example the time
taken for decision making, or in issuing a warning. Estimates of these actual lead times
are more difficult to obtain, but methods which are used include post event surveys of
people who were flooded, and examination of the records (logs) maintained during the
event by flood warning duty officers, the emergency services and others (e.g. for the
times of phone conversations, and for the estimated time of onset of flooding).
One simple way to present information on lead times is as a histogram showing
the lead time performance across a number of events. Values might also be tabulated by gauge, Flood Warning Area, or catchment or coastal reach, as illustrated in
Table 3.3 for a single gauge across a number of flood events (adapted from an
example in Environment Agency 2002).
68
3 Thresholds
Table 3.3 Example of a lead time summary for several flood warning areas (Adapted from
Environment Agency 2002; Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2008. All
rights reserved)
24
hours
46
hours
6+
hours
Modal
value
(hours)
Target
(hours)
24
<2
24
46
After
Table 3.4 Simple 2 x 2 contingency table for flood warning threshold evaluation
Flooding threshold exceeded
Flood warning threshold exceeded
Yes
No
Yes
No
A
C
B
D
In this hypothetical example, which is based on Fig. 3.4, the warning lead times
for FW001, FW003 and FW004 were satisfactory for all events, but were late for
one event at FW002, and below the target value for three events. Also, for FW005,
on two occasions the warning threshold was not reached until after flooding started
at Bridgeham. This might indicate the need to adjust the value for FW002, and possibly for a new approach for FW005.
An alternative way of examining performance is using a contingency table
approach as shown in Table 3.4 for the case of a river or tidal level gauge. The
example uses information on the crossing of flood warning and flooding thresholds
but, as described earlier, could also be extended to include an evaluation of the dissemination component of the system, based on information obtained from post
event surveys and incident logs (e.g. was a warning received? was your property
flooded?).
Based on this table, a number of parameters (categorical statistics) can be
defined, including the following three performance statistics which are widely used
in flood warning and forecasting verification studies:
The CSI parameter is sometimes called a Threat Score. These statistics can be
accumulated across a number of flood events at a single site, or a number of sites,
69
Raingauge 2
Year
Flood warning
issued
10 mm in
3 hours
15 mm in 6 20 mm in
hours
12 hours
10 mm in
3 hours
15 mm in
6 hours
20 mm in
12 hours
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
5
8
8
3
6
6
6
8
6
4
5
5
5
4
5
3
5
6
2
5
11
10
8
15
6
10
11
4
7
2
5
3
4
2
5
3
5
2
3
and give an indication of overall performance, and are discussed further in Chapter 5.
Histograms or cumulative frequency plots can also be produced as a guide to the
thresholds which provide the best compromise between probability of detection and
the number of false alarms.
Similar techniques can also be used for rainfall threshold values; for example,
Table 3.5 shows a hypothetical analysis to assist with verification, or setting, of
rainfall thresholds for two raingauges, based on analysis of 10 years of historical
rainfall data.
The Flood Warning column indicates the number of flood warnings issued each
year at this frequent flooding location, which of course may not always indicate that
flooding actually occurred. For Raingauge 1, the analysis indicates that the False
Alarm Ratio is high for the shorter duration thresholds, but is of the order 5075%
for the 12 hour duration, which may be acceptable for applications such as providing
an initial alert to duty officers of the need to start monitoring rainfall and river levels
more closely. For the newer gauge (Raingauge 2), false alarm rates are approximately
twice those of the other gauge, so the depth-duration thresholds could possibly be
adjusted, or perhaps the gauge is not representative of rainfall in the catchment.
Additional checks would also be required to confirm that the successful alarms are
linked to the same rainfall events which led to the flood warnings.
For evaluation of flood warning performance, it can also be useful to introduce
the concept of a near miss (e.g. Environment Agency 2004b), in which levels are
within some defined tolerance of the threshold value. For example, if flood warnings are being provided for an area behind a flood defence, then the tolerance might
be set equal to (or to some factor of) the design freeboard, on the basis that any level
within that tolerance is a cause for concern.
Some additional examples of approaches to verification are presented in Chapter
5 for the case of evaluation of flood forecasting model outputs, and in some cases
these methods might also be used for verification of warning thresholds. It is also
worth noting that many of the ideas used in flood warning verification have been
developed from other fields, in particular meteorology, for which the science of
70
3 Thresholds
forecast verification is perhaps better established (e.g. Stanski et al. 1989; Jolliffe
and Stephenson 2003).
One outcome of performance monitoring may be that a decision is taken either
that a more sophisticated approach is needed (e.g. a flood forecasting model, or
additional instrumentation), or that the level of service hoped for cannot be achieved
in practice with current budgets or technology. For reporting at organisational,
regional or national level, it may also be useful to aggregate performance statistics
across large numbers of Flood Warning Areas, which in turn can be used as a basis
for deciding on future investment and other requirements to improve performance.
Chapter 11 discusses some of these issues in terms of the economic performance of
an overall flood warning, forecasting and emergency response system.
Chapter 4
Dissemination
4.1
4.1.1
Flood warning procedures define the actions that flood warning staff should take as
a flood event develops. Some reasons for establishing clearly defined procedures
include:
During the pressure of a major flood event, there may be little time available for
analysis and discussion regarding whether to issue individual flood warnings
Given that floods can occur any time of day or night, less experienced staff may
be on duty, and need clear guidance on the actions to take
If procedures are not available, or do not cover all likely eventualities, vital
actions may be overlooked
71
72
4 Dissemination
The format of Flood Warning Procedures varies widely between organisations and
can range from short documents or charts through to detailed manuals and computerised decision support systems. Procedures can cover just a single location,
through to large numbers of flood warning areas in a region, and Table 4.1 illustrates some of the topics which may be covered.
Description
Detection
Pre-warning activities
Dissemination
Flood forecasting
Systems
Reporting
Contacts
73
Different sets of procedures may also be available for different types of flood event;
for example, river flooding and coastal flooding.
Threshold values for individual sites are often a key component of a flood warning
system and are described in more detail in Chapter 3. They summarise the conditions
under which flooding may occur, and the meteorological, river or coastal conditions
for issuing warnings or for operational response (if applicable). Some examples of
operational response can include:
Depending on the organisational structure, there may also be a requirement for staff
to coordinate the on site dissemination of warnings by loud hailer, door knocking,
portable sirens etc., although in some countries that task may be performed by local
authorities, the police, community representatives, or other groups.
Some additional information which may be included in procedures includes
photographs of the sites described, safe access routes under normal conditions and
for various flooding scenarios, descriptions of flooding mechanisms at specific
locations, and detailed instructions on the operation of structures. A single Flood
Warning Manual can cover many different sites, each with its own set of Action
Tables, and so can be a lengthy document.
In developing procedures, if resources are available, it is also useful to test them
regularly using table top or full scale response exercises. As described in Chapter 9,
a table top exercise attempts to mimic the decision making processes and pressures
which occur during a real flood event, and may make use of computer generated
visualisations, simulated television news reports, and other items to add to the realism.
The coordinator will introduce a range of scenarios and complications during the
course of the exercise following a timeline for the event.
4.1.2
A major task in developing flood warning procedures is often to define the districts
or properties for which warnings will be provided. Locations can be identified from
consultations, street maps, and site visits, making use of flood risk maps as well if
these are available (see Chapter 1). However, if a map based approach is used, then
an additional step is to convert these results into operationally useful units for providing flood warnings.
For example, the flood outlines derived from modelling studies may cut through
individual properties or groups of properties (e.g. an industrial site or hospital
74
4 Dissemination
Road
1 in 100 year (1%)
flood outline
Sub Area C
Road
1 in 50 year (2%)
flood outline
Town boundary
Sub Area A
Sub Area B
Fig. 4.1 Example of defining the extent of a Flood Warning Area from flood risk mapping outputs
grounds), or indicate that access and escape routes to some properties might be cut
by flood water, even though the properties themselves are not at risk. Also, there
may be advantages in extending areas so that warnings go to identifiable groups of
people, or people outside the area which might be flooded, if they are in a position
to help those at risk (e.g. the elderly, hard of hearing etc.).
Issues like these often need to be discussed with other participants in the flood
warning process and with community representatives, and the flooding outlines may
need to be adjusted based on those discussions. Also, as described in Chapter 3, with
the increasing sophistication of warning dissemination techniques, another option is
to subdivide areas based on the probability of flooding, so that flood warnings are
progressively provided to more and more people as levels rise. This subdivision can
be both linear (along the river or coastal reach) and lateral (moving laterally away
from the river or coastline). Each sub area would then have its own set of threshold
values to allow warnings to be extended to more properties as river levels rise.
For example, Fig. 4.1 shows a simple example in which the flood risk outlines,
estimated from hydraulic modelling, are used as a guide to the development of a
Flood Warning Area for a hypothetical town called Newtown. The following three
zones or sub areas are established in the Flood Warning Area:
In this example, the sub areas are extended in some places outside the main flood
risk zones to cover complete communities for which access may be affected, or for
which there may be a history of flooding not represented in the hydraulic model.
Also, for Sub Area B, rather than escalate warnings to a small number of properties
in the 12% risk band, all properties to the south of the river are combined into one
sub area. There are of course many issues to consider in defining the extent of warning areas, including whether property owners in areas not at direct risk would welcome information on potential flooding (or not), and national policy on this issue.
A possible extension of this method is to derive estimates of the probability of
flooding in real time, where the probabilistic component arises from the uncertainties in observations and forecasts, and other unknowns. The resulting probabilistic
flood outlines can then be combined with consequence to give a measure of risk
75
4.1.3
Organisational Issues
The organisation of a flood warning service varies widely between countries and,
depending on the scale of the overall system, duties might include some or all of
the following activities:
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4 Dissemination
Box 4.1 The flood warning service in England and Wales (Environment Agency)
Recent estimates suggest that in England and Wales approximately five million people in two million properties are at risk from flooding from a 1% (1
in 100 years) event, including almost 400,000 businesses. More than 70% of
properties currently receive a flood warning service, with a target lead time
for warnings of at least 2 hours, where this is technically feasible.
The flood warning service in England and Wales is operated by the
Environment Agency, whose responsibilities include installation and operation of raingauges, river gauges, tide gauges, and other instrumentation, the
development and operation of river and coastal flood forecasting models, the
implementation of flood warning schemes, monitoring weather radar outputs,
and issuing flood warnings to local authorities, the emergency services and
the public. The Environment Agency also has many wider responsibilities;
for example, in flood defence, and water resources.
Flood warnings (Fig. 4.2) are issued by more than 20 local offices supported by flood forecasts provided by eight regional offices, and meteorological forecasts (rainfall, wind, surge etc.) from the UK Meteorological Office.
Some limited real time information from other organisations, such as water
companies and canal operators, is also available and used in the flood forecasting and warning process.
Fig. 4.2 Flood Warning codes in England and Wales (Environment Agency, Environment
Agency copyright and/or database right 2008. All rights reserved)
(continued)
77
4.1.4
Control Rooms
For a flood warning authority, monitoring of rainfall, river and coastal conditions is
usually performed from one or more control rooms. Typically these are equipped
with computers to monitor rainfall, river and tidal conditions, and the outputs from
forecasting models, together with telephone, fax, and automated communications
systems for disseminating warnings and liaison with other organisations.
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4 Dissemination
Wall Maps
Whiteboards
Warning Status
Meteorology
Telemetry
Incident
Manager
Flood
Forecasting
Operations
Manager
Communications
Dissemination
The control centre could just be a single room in an office, or a separate building
dedicated to providing flood warnings. The location should be outside any possible
area which may flood, or for which access may be impeded by flood waters, with
an alternate location available in case of problems. Some other equipment which
may be available includes:
Figure 4.3 shows one possible example for the layout for the incident room for a
small regional centre.
In the figure, the numbers of computers and telephones shown are illustrative
only and other devices such as printers and fax machines are not shown; also most
key systems are likely to have complete backups in case of failure. A separate location for media briefings is also usually advisable (Holland 2007).
79
Since floods can occur at any time of day or night, a rota of key staff will usually
be established, equipped with laptop computers, cell phones, radios or pagers so that
they can easily be contacted when away from the office. The incident room may be
permanently staffed, or limitations may be placed on how far duty officers can travel
from the incident centre when on call. At the handover between shifts, a briefing may
be held for incoming staff on the current situation, and a package of key manuals,
equipment, situation reports and other information formally handed over.
During normal operations, when no flooding is occurring or anticipated, the
duty officer might only monitor weather, river or coastal conditions daily, or a
few times a day, and perhaps have other duties unrelated to flood warning. For a
full time flood warning service, routine day to day duties can include review and
improvements to existing flood warning schemes, issuing routine river and
coastal situation reports and bulletins, development of new flood warning
schemes, training, post event reporting, reporting against organisational or
national targets, planning and liaison with other flood response organisations
(local authorities, emergency services etc.), public awareness campaigns (newspaper, television, radio, meetings, leaflets etc.), commissioning public satisfaction surveys, installation of monitoring equipment, system improvements
(telemetry, forecasting, dissemination etc.) and other activities.
When flooding conditions appear possible, the frequency of monitoring (and forecasting model runs, if available) will typically be increased, and additional staff put
on standby or called in to the incident room. The number of staff required for a fully
operational incident room can be high, and can include representatives from local
authorities, the police, and other organisations. The organisational structure differs
considerably between countries, but could include a general incident manager, a
manager for operational staff deployed on site, monitoring and forecasting specialists,
communications experts, a press or public relations officer (or technical staff trained
in media relations), and other specialists from within and outside the flood warning
team with detailed knowledge of the catchments or coastal reaches at risk.
As described in Chapter 9, other organisations, such as the emergency services
and local authorities, may establish their own command and control centres. Ideally
one centre will be designated to lead the response, with representatives from all
other key services and functions present, with clearly documented procedures
describing the division of responsibilities between different organisations.
4.2
4.2.1
Dissemination Techniques
Introduction
Flood warnings may need to be issued to the public, emergency services, local
authorities and others with an interest in when and where flooding is likely to occur,
or who are involved in the emergency response.
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4 Dissemination
For some methods, the distinction between these approaches is blurred. For example,
sirens may be installed at one or more strategic locations to provide complete coverage of an area, but can be operated either locally, or indirectly from a control
centre over a telemetry network. Similarly, some cell phone networks have the
capability both for direct communications, and to broadcast emergency messages
to all phones within range of the nearest network tower.
Where loud hailers or hand operated sirens are used, these are typically operated
either by people patrolling the streets on foot, or from vehicles, often following a
pre-planned, timed route covering all areas for which a warning is required. Fixed
installations may also be used in locations where there is a regular flood risk.
Cascade systems (or telephone trees) may also be used, in which contacts are initially with one small group of key people by telephone or in-person, who in turn
each warn a second tier of people, and so on until all intended recipients have
received the warning.
All methods have their own advantages and potential drawbacks, and many
organisations use at least two alternate approaches, both in case of failure of any
one method, and because research has shown that people are more likely to
respond if they receive information in varying ways and from more than one
source, including any existing informal networks (e.g. Parker 2003; Andryszewski
et al. 2005a, 2005b).
Table 4.2 illustrates some potential issues with approaches to issuing direct
warnings (although note that all of the methods shown can work well in many situations, and much depends on the institutional and cultural setting, and the resilience
built into the design of dissemination procedures).
81
Table 4.2 Some issues to consider with a selection of direct warning methods
Issue
4.2.2
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4 Dissemination
Operator
Name or link
Australia
Bangladesh
Bureau of Meteorology
Flood Forecasting and Warning
Centre
Finnish Environment Institute
Ministry of Ecology and
Sustainable Development
Rhineland Palatinate Flood
Warning Centres
Japan Meteorological Agency
Environment Agency, SEPA
NOAA/National Weather
Service
http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/
http://www.ffwc.gov.bd/
Finland
France
Germany
Japan
United Kingdom
USA
http://www.environment.fi/
http://www.vigicrues.ecologie.gouv.fr/
http://www.hochwasserzentralen.de/
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/index.html
Floodline
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/
Perhaps the most widely used indirect approach is the Internet, with information
on web addresses provided via television, radio, newspaper and other public awareness campaigns. Table 4.3 lists examples of Internet based flood warning systems
from several countries.
Some typical functionality can include information on the time of issue of the
warning, text, graphical and map based representations of the areas at risk, contacts
for more information, advisory information on acting upon the warning, and search
facilities by location, river, town etc.
For example, Fig. 4.4 shows a display used by the Urban Drainage and Flood
Control District in Colorado, which combines information on river levels, likely
impacts, historical flood heights, and site specific issues, and provides links to
maps, additional information on rainfall, and a range of tabulated outputs.
Increasingly, multimedia dissemination systems are also being used to
allow warnings to be targeted more precisely at specific groups of people (see
Box 4.1, for example). Some typical functionality for this type of system
might include:
83
Fig. 4.4 Greyscale example of water level templet from the Information Services and Flood
Warning Program, Urban Drainage and Flood Control District, Denver, Colorado
In some systems, summary information can also be generated for the overall numbers of people or properties warned, for statistics on the average time delays experienced between issuing and receiving warnings, and other performance measures,
such as the percentage of people who acknowledged messages. Systems may be
opt-in, with people identified as being at risk of flooding choosing to be included,
or opt-out, with the default being to include people unless they confirm otherwise.
A particular problem for any warning system is that of so-called transient
populations, such as road users, pedestrians on riverside or coastal paths, business
travellers, hikers, and people in campsites. Options for automated transmission of
location dependent warnings include using the traffic alert systems available with
digital radio, targeting voice and text messages to cell phones within a given range
of a transmitter, and remotely activated electronic warning signs to warn of potential
flooding of roads and river and coastal footpaths.
One other approach to dissemination, which is sometimes used if false alarms
are not a major issue, or floods develop very rapidly, is to link the detection and
dissemination components of the system directly, without human intervention.
For example, river level detectors might be linked to an alarm bell or siren to alert
gate operators to the need to take action. Some other examples include:
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4 Dissemination
depths, which trigger audible alarms, and send automated messages by cell
phone or landline to selected community representatives (Oi and Opavedi
2006).
Pressure transducers installed at low level in road kerbs with a direct link to
nearby electronic road signs to warn road users of potential flooding, as used in
parts of Texas, for example. Also, automated road barriers in some parts of the
USA (e.g. canyons).
An alert system in Nepal for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods which used the outputs from river level sensors to trigger warnings in turn from a series of sirens
further downstream, connected by radio telemetry.
However, the decision to use a fully automated approach will depend on a range of
factors, including system reliability, the consequences of failure, and tolerance to
false alarms, and most operational systems rely on expert inputs from duty officers
at some point in the warning process.
Recent developments have also considered how to provide warnings to rural or
dispersed communities, with particular emphasis on a low cost, sustainable
approach, as illustrated in Box 4.2.
More generally, research on flood warning technologies increasingly aims to
improve the targeting of warnings, allowing more effective use of staff and other
resources, and avoiding the unnecessary of evacuation of properties. Forecasting
models can play a useful role here; for example, as described in Chapters 5 and 10,
systems and models are now available which, when combined with property databases and digital terrain models, are capable of mapping likely flood inundation
extents at each time step in a model run, and generating lists and maps of properties
likely to flood at specific times into the future. When coupled to automated dissemination systems (such as voice messaging systems), warnings can in principle
be issued to individual properties, together with estimates of the likely depth, start
time and duration of flooding. However, a cautionary note is that much relies on the
model accuracy, so manual intervention is still likely to be required at some point
in the process to provide a check on model outputs.
4.2.3
Warning Messages
The content and wording of warning messages again varies widely between countries and much research has been done on the most effective ways to issue warnings
to the public and non-specialists, and on how warnings are perceived (see Chapter
11 for examples).
Some general principles are to provide a clear and accurate description, in familiar
(non technical) language, and ideally contrasting the severity of the current situation
to recent events which people may remember or can relate to. For example, in some
countries, colour coded marker boards are used on river banks and buildings illustrating the flood levels likely to be reached for different stages of warning.
85
86
4 Dissemination
The warning should also include the time of issue and the location and expected
time and duration of flooding, recommended actions, and the time for the next
update. Locations are better expressed in terms of places where people live or work
(communities etc.), rather than in terms of river or coastal reaches or monitoring
locations. Messages should also be from a single authority, or intermediaries (e.g.
community representatives) or, if not, following an agreed plan for different organisations to issue different components of the message.
The following items show a suggested generic format for a warning bulletin
based on a comparative study of methods used in several European countries
(Martini and De Roo 2007):
Where lead times are sufficiently long, experience suggests that warnings are more
effective if a staged approach is used, allowing people to prepare for the possibility
of flooding before needing to take action. For example (World Meteorological
Organisation 2006), a generic set of warnings for natural hazards such as typhoons,
hurricanes and floods is:
87
In some situations, the initial stages of warnings may only go to emergency services
and governmental organizations. Different countries use different approaches; for
example, Box 4.1 illustrates the four stage warning system used in the UK which
is defined as follows:
Some conditions which might lead to issuing a Severe Flood Warning include high
risk to life (due to depth, velocity etc.), large numbers of properties likely to be
flooded, severe disruption to infrastructure and the ability of responders to act, and
the risk of flood defences failing or overtopping.
More generally, there is an increasing trend to provide estimates of uncertainty
with flood warnings and forecasts, and Chapters 5, 10 and 11 discuss this topic,
together with a more detailed discussion on how effective warnings can contribute
to reducing risks during a flood event.
4.3
The design of a flood warning system can require many stages, including consultation with community representatives, local authorities and the emergency services,
installation of monitoring equipment, development of forecasting and dissemination systems, writing procedures, and a range of management, training and other
activities. Several guides have been published on the main steps involved both for
flood warning systems, and other types of early warning system, and some examples are summarised in Table 4.4.
Some typical areas to consider in designing and implementing a flood warning
system can include:
User requirements from consultations, consideration of flood warning performance targets (if any), and other criteria
Risk assessment formal assessments of the locations at risk from flooding
based on historical flood events, modelling and consultations
Detection assessment of the availability, quality and reliability of existing real
time data on rainfall, rivers, tides etc. (as appropriate), and installation of new
sites if required
Thresholds definition of the criteria under which warnings will be issued
Flood forecasting review of any existing flood forecasting models and development of new models (if required)
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4 Dissemination
Table 4.4 Examples of guidelines on designing and implementing various aspects of flood warning
and other early warning systems
Country
Organisation
Australia
Emergency
Management
Australia
Environment Agency
USA
Generic
Generic
Generic
Document(s)
Reference
Australian Emergency
Emergency Management
Australia (1999)
Management Manuals;
Flood Warning volume
A series of best practice Tilford et al. (2007),
guidelines on river,
Environment Agency
estuary and coastal
(2002, 2004)
flood forecasting
NOAA/National
NOAA/NWS
Automated local flood
warning systems handWeather Service
book
(1997) (see also
USACE 1996)
World Meteorological Guide to hydrological
World Meteorological
Organisation
practices (forecasting
Organisation (1994)
sections)
World Meteorological Global guide to tropical Holland (2007)
Organisation
cyclone forecasting
ISDR
Developing early warning ISDR (2006)
systems: a checklist
An important first step is usually to decide on the main aims of the flood warning
scheme or system and any performance requirements or targets. Consultees can
include members of the public, or their representatives, the emergency services,
local authorities and others. Approaches to consultation can include workshops,
town meetings, site visits, household surveys, telephone surveys and questionnaires. Requirements may be expressed in terms of lead time, accuracy, ways of
receiving information, and other choices. This approach, particularly if it is driven by
members of the communities involved, also raises awareness of the proposed scheme
and builds a sense of ownership (Emergency Management Australia 1999).
89
Another key question is the likely budget available, and the economic case for
the scheme, and this point is discussed in Chapter 11, together with a range of
techniques for prioritising investment in schemes (cost benefit, multi-criteria methods etc.). Some aspects of the design may also be guided by organisational or
national targets and standards, again as discussed in Chapter 11. Later chapters also
discuss the design of flood forecasting systems (Chapters 58), techniques for
examining resilience (Chapter 9), and performance monitoring (Chapter 11).
Part II
Flood Forecasting
Chapter 5
General Principles
Flood forecasting models are an important component in many flood warning and
emergency response systems. Models can assist by providing advance warning of
the likely timing and magnitude of flooding, and in helping to understand the complexities
of a flood event as it develops. Models outputs may also be used in decision support
systems for flood event management and the operation of flow control structures.
The techniques used for flood forecasting have many similarities to the methods
used for simulation modelling of river and coastal processes. However, the design
may be constrained by the availability of real time data, and computer systems on
which to operate the model, although there is the advantage that model outputs can
be updated to help to account for differences with observed values; a process which
is often called data assimilation. Ensemble and probabilistic techniques are also
increasingly being developed to provide information on model uncertainty to users
of model outputs, and to allow a more risk-based approach to decision making. This
chapter provides a general introduction to these issues and to the topic of flood
forecasting model calibration and performance monitoring.
5.1
The overall design will often be a compromise based on these various considerations. Section 5.2 discusses forecasting systems, whilst the requirements for data
depend on the particular application, and examples are provided in Chapters 68 for
a range of forecasting applications. The issues of time, budget and skills, and the
level of flood risk, often form part of a wider decision making process on the economic justification for a flood warning system, and are discussed in Chapter 11.
K. Sene, Flood Warning, Forecasting and Emergency Response,
Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2008
93
94
5 General Principles
The forecasting requirement depends on the needs of users of the model outputs,
and Table 5.1 lists some examples of applications which might be considered. For
a given situation, a model may help in addressing some or all of these requirements.
Although it is difficult to generalise, in moving down Table 5.1, the types of model
required will generally be more complex, and take longer to develop.
For example, for a river flow model, to estimate the flood peak at a single location,
a simple rainfall runoff model may in some cases be sufficient whilst, to estimate flow
depths and velocities at property and street locations, a real time hydrodynamic model
of the floodplain flow would ideally be required. Similarly, for coastal forecasting, to
estimate inundation extent behind a sea defence, offshore-nearshore wave
transformation, wave overtopping, surge and floodplain models might be required. In
particular, models to assist with control structure operations, and decision support
applications, can sometimes require considerable exploratory work to implement. Of
course, exceptions can always be found and some of the choices available are discussed in Chapters 68 when considering the strengths and limitations of alternative
modelling approaches for river and coastal forecasting applications.
Another aspect of the forecasting requirement is to specify where forecasts are
required. These locations are often known as Forecasting Points, and can include:
Table 5.1 Some typical applications of flood forecasting models (Adapted from Environment
Agency 2002; Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2008. All rights reserved)
Requirement
Typical applications
95
Some alternative names for Forecasting Points include Forecast Points, or Flood
Forecast Points or, for coastal applications, Coastal Cells or Units. One option available for the development of a forecasting model is to focus the modelling effort on
achieving acceptable model performance at these locations, but to use a simpler
approach elsewhere provided that this does not affect performance at those points.
This approach can result in considerable savings in the cost and time for model development and/or reductions in model run times. For example, for a hydrodynamic river
model, detailed survey data may only be required at and around the Forecasting
Points, rather than for the whole catchment whilst, for a nearshore hydrodynamic
coastal model, the grid resolution can be tailored to the areas which have the most
influence on levels, surge and wave action at the Forecasting Points.
The performance requirements for the model can also be defined in terms of the
requirements at Forecasting Points; for example, the required accuracy of forecasts
of peak river levels, or the lead time provided for surge forecasts. Section 5.4 discusses some other possible model performance and calibration criteria. However,
these requirements may not always be achievable with the data, models and budget
available, and this needs to be factored into the overall design, and potential users
of model outputs warned of any such limitations. Chapter 11 discusses a range of
approaches to prioritising the development of forecasting models and other components in the flood warning process.
In many cases, the forecast lead time is one of the key design criteria, and may
dictate the overall design of the model. For example, for a river forecasting model,
if the catchment response time is less than the required lead time, then rainfall
forecasts will usually be required as inputs to the model. Additional tasks required
in this case could include an investigation of rainfall forecast accuracy (and whether
this is suitable for use with the model), establishing a real time data feed of those
forecasts to the model and (ideally) calibration of the model to a historical archive
of forecast values, if this is practicable.
Also, in a real time application, it is important to distinguish between the potential lead time provided by the forecasting model, and the likely lead time for flood
warnings. The warning lead time can be considerably shorter than the potential lead
time due to time delays in the system including:
Polling time the time delay between a parameter (e.g. rainfall) being measured,
and being available for transfer to the forecasting system
Forecasting system run frequency the time delay whilst waiting for the forecasting system to initiate the next model run
Pre-processing time the time taken to prepare and validate the data for input to the
model, and to perform any preparatory analyses (e.g. infilling of missing values)
Model run time the time taken to initialise model states (if required), run the
model(s) in the forecasting environment, including any probabilistic simulations,
and perform any real time updating required
96
5 General Principles
Peak rainfall
data received
Warning
Decision to
issue warning received by
all property
owners
Postprocessing
completed
Model Run
completed
Pre-processing
completed
Flooding
threshold
exceeded
Flood
peak
reached
Rainfall
Event
Fig. 5.1 Illustration of the time delays in issuing a warning for a single rainfall runoff model
Post-processing time the time taken to collate and process the model outputs
into reports, graphs, maps etc., and to raise alarms (if required)
Decision time the time taken for the forecaster to review the outputs and decide
whether to approve the forecast, and for the recipients of that forecast to decide
whether to issue a warning (including time for discussions etc.)
Dissemination time the time taken between a flood warning being issued, and
all of the intended recipients receiving it
Figure 5.1 illustrates these various potential time delays for the idealised case of a
rainfall runoff model providing flow forecasts for a single Forecasting Point following a short duration, intense rainfall event (see USACE 1994; Environment Agency
2002; Carsell et al. 2004 for similar examples).
In the figure, the relative magnitudes of the various time delays are illustrative
only and are exaggerated in places; also the catchment response time is assumed to
apply from the mid-point of the rainfall event, although various other definitions are
used (for example, starting from the centroid of the rainfall event). However, for
this particular example, the warning lead time available would be considerably less
than the catchment response time or the forecast lead time. This lead time could be
extended by using rainfall forecasts although, as described in Chapters 2 and 6,
with the accuracy likely to decrease with increasing rainfall forecast lead time.
In practice, for a simple model like this, operating on a dedicated forecasting
system, the overall time delay due to these factors can be small compared to the
physical response times of the river or coastal reach. However, if many models
are being operated in parallel (e.g. as on a regional forecasting system), or if more
complex model types are being used (e.g. hydrodynamic models), or probabilistic
or ensemble techniques are being used, these time delays can be significant, and
may in some cases lead to the decision to use an alternative modelling approach.
For example, hydrodynamic models of flood defence systems developed for design
97
studies can sometimes take many hours to run, unless they have been optimised for
real time use, in which case improvements in run time of one or two orders of
magnitude or more are sometimes possible (e.g. Chen et al. 2005).
Chapters 68 discuss some run time issues associated with various types of river
and coastal forecasting techniques, and Chapter 9 discusses some other sources of
time delays in the emergency response process. However, for the forecasting component alone, some possible options for obtaining solutions more quickly include
(e.g. Chen et al. 2005; Environment Agency 2007):
Model emulators simpler models, such as transfer functions, which can emulate the behaviour of more complex models
Restructuring of models so that the more computationally intensive components of the model can be run on demand, or at a less frequent time step (e.g. a
hydraulic model for a specific flood risk area)
Filtering or clustering of ensembles use of only a subset of values if ensemble
techniques are used (although with many issues to consider regarding the representativeness of the sampling technique)
Computer processing using faster processors, or structuring the model so that
computing effort can be shared between more than one processor
Model rationalisation improvement of the underlying model to improve run
times, convergence and stability
The issue of whether the decision time can be eliminated by automatically issuing
warnings based on forecasts is an interesting question, and ties in with various topics
which are discussed in Chapters 4 and 11; for example, the uncertainty in the model
outputs, the time available for an emergency response (e.g. for flash flood forecasting), performance targets, and tolerance to false alarms. Many (but not all) modellers
take the view that some human intervention and interpretation is essential in the overall process, where there is time to do this. Also, based on estimates of model uncertainty, or ensemble forecasts, or experience, the forecaster may choose to wait for
additional model runs before deciding whether to issue the forecast, in the expectation
that by then the model uncertainty will have reduced (see Chapter 10).
5.2
Forecasting Systems
A flood forecasting system provides the operating environment within which flood
forecasting models can be operated, and is sometimes called the system environment.
Table 5.2 shows some of the key functionality which is typically available in modern
forecasting systems and Box 5.1 provides an example of an operational system.
The precise options available will depend on the system developer or vendor.
Systems typically run continuously all year around (24/7) and are required to meet
specified standards for availability, reliability and downtime. For additional resilience,
many systems offer multiple redundancy in computer hardware, software, and data
transfer routes in case of failure of any one component.
98
5 General Principles
Function
Description
Pre-processing
Data gathering
Data interfacing
Data validation
Data transformation
Model runs
Post processing
Model outputs
Inundation mapping
Alarm handling
Performance
monitoring
Audit trail
Replay
User interface
Model outputs
What if functionality
System configuration
Model calibration
Although models can be operated without a forecasting system, this can rapidly
become complicated if there are multiple Forecasting Points to consider, or forecast
lead times are short, or real time updating is required, or forecasting duty officers
have other tasks to perform. Organisations are also increasingly required to provide
99
Box 5.1 The National Flood Forecasting System in England and Wales
The National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS) is the operational flood forecasting system used by the Environment Agency in England and Wales. The
system can run a wide range of river and coastal forecasting models, and provides forecasts to numerous Forecasting Points on rivers and coastal reaches
across England and Wales.
Operationally, the system gathers real time data from a wide range of sources,
including regional telemetry systems (rainfall, river, reservoir, tide data etc.), and
Met Office weather radar data and weather forecasts (rainfall, surge, wind speed
and direction etc.). An extensive range of data validation, aggregation and transformation tools is available. The range of model types and options includes:
Hydrodynamic models are optimised for run times, stability and convergence
before loading onto the system, and several thousand kilometres of river network is represented in this way, allowing complex backwater, confluence,
control structure and tidal effects to be modelled in real time. Real time inundation
mapping is also being evaluated for some high risk locations.
A range of simpler methods, such as correlations and look-up tables, is
also included as a backup, and sometimes as the primary model type where a
more expensive approach is not justified.
Models are typically operated at least daily to monitor for potential
flood risk. If flooding seems likely they are run on a more frequent basis
to keep forecasters up to date on when and where floods are expected. The
latest model outputs are normally available to inspect via the map based
user interface, and a variety of graphical and other reporting formats.
The system includes an extensive range of forecasting performance monitoring tools, including contingency table, statistical, and skill-score
approaches.
The system includes the facility to run what if scenarios to explore the
effect of different rainfall forecasts, control structure operations, and event
specific factors (e.g. defence breaches), and includes data hierarchies in
case of instrument or telemetry failure. There is also the facility to raise
alarms when rainfall and level thresholds are exceeded but, for operational
reasons, these are normally raised on the regional telemetry systems.
(continued)
100
5 General Principles
an audit trail of decisions made during a flood event, including use of the outputs
from forecasting model runs, and a forecasting system can help to provide this
functionality. Automation of model runs can also free up skilled staff to spend more
time on interpretation and discussion of data and model outputs, rather than routine
data processing and analysis. Some possible exceptions are situations where only a
small number of models needs to be considered, the data entry requirements are
modest, or model runs are only required at irregular intervals (for example, for
some types of coastal or groundwater flooding).
Figure 5.2 illustrates a typical configuration for a forecasting system operating
both catchment and coastal flood forecasting models.
In this example, real time data flows are received from a network of raingauges,
river gauging stations, automatic weather stations, weather radars, and tide gauges.
Rainfall and surge forecasts and composite weather radar data are also received from
a meteorological service or department. Satellite, reservoir and snowcover/snowmelt
information might also be included, although this is not shown on the figure. The
data inputs are handled by a separate telemetry system, which feeds data to the forecasting system and to an off-line hydrometric database system (not shown).
Two independent forecasting systems are shown; the operational (Duty) system
and a backup (Standby) system, which operates in parallel and can switch automatically to being the live system in case of problems. Normally, the hardware for these
independent systems would be located at different sites, both out of the floodplain,
and ideally separated by a sufficient distance that both would not be adversely
affected at the same time by widespread catastrophic events (fire, flood, earthquake,
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Numerical
Weather
Prediction
Weather Radar
Rainfall Forecasts
Composite Radar Rainfall
Raingauges
Tide Gauges
Telemetry System
Surge Forecasts
Forecasting
System
(Duty)
Pre - Processor
Pre - Processor
Model Run
Control &
Database
Model Run
Control &
Database
Post - Processor
Post - Processor
Alarm Handling
Alarm Handling
Forecasting
System
(Standby)
Flood Warning
Dissemination
System
major power failure etc.). The telemetry system may also have backup facilities,
although this is not shown here.
Many other configurations can be used, of course; for example, the forecasting system might also manage the polling (collection) of data, avoiding the need for a separate
telemetry system, although introducing the risk of interruptions in data collection if
there are problems with the forecasting system. Also, the forecast outputs might be fed
back to the telemetry system to allow both forecasts and observed data to be displayed
there, and for the alarm (threshold) handling on forecasts to be performed in parallel
with that for observed data, providing greater consistency and avoiding duplication of
functionality, although at the expense of some loss of system redundancy. Various other
combinations can also be envisaged, depending on the relative roles and responsibilities
of the various organisations involved in the data collection and forecasting process.
Internationally, many types of forecasting system have been developed for individual forecasting services, or are available commercially, and the system which is
used can be a key factor in choice of modelling approach since usually only a specific range of model types can be configured on a particular system. There may also
be model run time, licencing and other issues to consider. Increasingly, though,
forecasting systems use a toolkit approach, with several choices of model, which
can be configured as appropriate for each modelling problem, perhaps using an
openly published interface which allows any type of model to be used which conforms to this interface (e.g. Fortune 2006). Table 5.3 presents several examples of
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5 General Principles
Abbreviation
System
Reference
Australia
AIFS
Bangladesh
Central America
CAFFG
China
NISFCDR
Finland
WSFS
Norway
Del Plata river basin
United Kingdom
NFFS/FEWS
USA
AHPS
Advanced Hydrological
Prediction Service
Vehvilinen et al.
(2005)
Rhr and Husebye
(2005)
Goniadzki (2006)
systems operated at a national or regional scale, and further examples can be found
in Chapters 68 and in the references to those chapters.
Later sections and chapters describe the process of selecting and calibrating an
appropriate model, or network of models, for use on a forecasting system. Once
those stages have been completed, the next step is usually to configure the models
for real time use. The approach to configuration varies between systems, but might
include creating a database or hypertext file (e.g. XML) describing how models link
together, and how data flows through the chain of models. Alternatively, some systems offer the option of setting up the configuration using a graphical user interface
and Fig. 5.3 shows an example of how an interactive configuration editor might
appear for a simple catchment forecasting model.
The symbols used are for illustration only, but the principle of abstracting the
chain of models into a network through which data can flow, is common to many
systems. In particular, the representation in the system need not be to the same scale
and layout as the physical situation.
In this example, the evaporation function could consist simply of a typical seasonal
profile, or be estimated using real time data from an automatic weather station. The
flow routing component might consist of a single black box model, or be represented
by a series of nodes at cross sections along the river reach (e.g. a hydrodynamic
model). In the latter case, the inflow components could be connected to the appropriate
nodes so as to better represent the timing and attenuation of the hydrograph at locations
further downstream, with additonal components to represent lateral (ungauged)
103
1
2
A
2
C
Evaporation Function
Town
Raingauge
inflows. The river gauging station locations might also be selected as real time updating points, with the choice of updating procedure selected via the user interface.
In addition to the appearance of graphs, maps, tables and other forms of output, some
key considerations in configuring a model onto a forecasting system typically include:
The choice of time step (or model run frequency) this is unlikely to be less than
the polling or transfer intervals for real time data or rainfall and surge forecasts,
but can be multiples of those values. Ideally, a value will be chosen that is sufficient to resolve the details of any event, particularly for the rising limb of a
hydrograph, as flooding thresholds are approached.
The approach to model initialisation how will rainfall runoff, flow routing,
hydrodynamic, reservoir, coastal and other models (as required) be initialised for
routine operation and when starting after a gap or interruption in operations, and
what choices will be made for saving model states between runs (if required)?
Integration of the system into operational procedures how will the forecast
outputs be used in the process of issuing flood warnings, and will the system be
operated continuously, or on demand as a flood event develops? Are there certain times of the day at which model outputs will be required for inspection, and
are there benefits in operating the model less frequently (e.g. once per day) when
flooding is unlikely and, if so, what is the process for switching from normal
operation to a raised state of alert (e.g. more frequent model runs)?
Data storage requirements data volumes can increase rapidly when both input
data and forecast runs are archived, particularly if a probabilistic or ensemble
approach is being used. Recent values may need to be kept in a rolling barrel store
which after each run stores the oldest values off-line, then overwrites them with the
latest values.
Many systems also allow a data hierarchy to be defined in case of failure of one or
more input data streams, such as an instrument or a telemetry link, or the overall
telemetry system. A hierarchy or choice of models can also be defined to run in
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5 General Principles
parallel on some systems; for example, if a hydrodynamic model run fails to converge,
then the outputs from a simpler backup hydrological routing or correlation model
might be used instead. One common example of a data hierarchy is for raingauges
and, as a simple illustration, the following set of rules might be one possibility for
the rainfall runoff models shown in Fig. 5.3:
This sequence could be configured to run automatically on the system, with alerts
provided to the user that replacement data streams have been used in model runs.
Also, to account for possible calibration and other differences in each data
stream, ideally the model should be calibrated and optimised for each combination of inputs, with a hierarchy of parameter sets also available, although this may
not be practicable in many cases. More complicated scenarios, using other more
distant raingauges, and combinations of gauges, could also be envisaged.
A related option provided by some systems is the functionality to perform what-if
scenarios during a flood event; for example, to explore the impact on flood magnitude,
timing and extent for situations such as operating a river control structure, or eventspecific problems occurring such as a bridge being blocked by debris, or a breach
occurring in a flood defence. One commonly used example is a set of scenarios for
future rainfall and some options could include:
Normally, a set of pre-defined scenarios will be calibrated and configured ready for
use during an event although, in some cases (e.g. gate operations, blockages), the
forecasting system may provide users with direct access to model parameters and
initial conditions via the user interface (e.g. dialog boxes) so that these can be
changed manually. Ensemble and probabilistic techniques might also be used as
described in Section 5.5.
5.3
Data Assimilation
Although there are many complicating factors in real time modelling, one advantage
compared to off-line simulations is that observations of river or coastal conditions
are usually available to compare with model outputs. If the observations are reliable,
then the forecasts can be updated to help to take account of the differences between
observed and forecast values.
105
Many different techniques have been developed for forecast updating, and these
are often separated into the following three main categories (e.g. Reed 1984; World
Meteorological Organisation 1994; Moore 1999), although the distinctions between
methods can sometimes be blurred:
Error prediction in which forecast outputs are adjusted directly, based on models
calibrated to the time series of differences between observed and forecast values
State updating in which the initial conditions of the model are adjusted to
achieve a better match between the observed and forecast values
Parameter updating in which the parameters in the model are adjusted to
achieve a better match between observed and forecast values
State updating is often called data assimilation by meteorologists and coastal modellers, whilst the terms real time updating or real time adaptation are often used
by hydrologists to describe all three approaches. Error prediction is sometimes also
called error correction, output updating or real time adjustment.
Although data assimilation can significantly improve the accuracy of flood forecasts, and is often recommended as best practice, a few issues to consider include
(e.g. Environment Agency 2002):
Updating does not remove the need to have a well calibrated model, able to represent response for a wide range of types of event. In particular, some forms of
updating algorithm can struggle with correcting errors in the timing of peaks.
The quality of the updated forecast will depend on the quality of the input data,
and erroneous data can degrade, rather than improve, the accuracy of forecasts.
Usually, it is advisable to validate data inputs either automatically or manually
before they are used for data assimilation.
For real time control applications, the use of updating needs to be factored into
the system design from the start, since otherwise unwanted feedback effects can
develop; for example, control gates hunting for optimum settings.
If data quality remains an issue after validation, then one solution might be to
restrict updating to ranges in which values are known to be reliable; for example, if
the high flow end of a stage discharge relationship is suspect, or levels start to
become insensitive to flows (e.g. for some floodplain flows), then updating could
be performed only up to a certain threshold value.
At the simplest level, one approach to updating a forecast is to inspect the
observed and forecast values on a graph, and to adjust the forecast by eye to compensate for any differences. Figure 5.4 illustrates this process for a river flow
hydrograph.
In this example, the forecast is below the observed values throughout the period
up to the start of the forecast period and, for the earlier event, the forecast peak was
later than the observed peak. There are also minor differences in hydrograph shape
or volume. The adjusted forecast attempts to visually compensate for these errors
by applying both timing and magnitude corrections.
The human eye is remarkably good at distinguishing between errors in timing
and magnitude, and in deciding on the appropriate adjustments to make. However,
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5 General Principles
Flow
Observed Flow
Adjusted Forecast
Original Forecast
Time
Time Now
although systems have been developed which allow a forecaster to make adjustments
of this type by editing or blending graphical outputs on a computer display, this
approach can be impractical to apply if there are many Forecasting Points to
consider, or there are many other demands on a forecasters time. In practice, therefore,
the majority of updating procedures operate automatically without user intervention,
although the original and updated forecasts are often displayed together, with the
option to accept or reject the adjusted forecast.
5.3.1
Error Prediction
One distinguishing feature of error prediction methods is that they are usually independent from the forecasting model, and can be applied as part of the post-processing
of model outputs. State and parameter updating techniques, by contrast, tend to be
specific to the type or brand of model, although with some exceptions.
Error prediction methods to some extent mimic the visual adjustments described
earlier, although may use a sophisticated range of time series analysis techniques. The
basis for the approach is that, although the sequence of errors (residuals) is unknown
before the start of the event, the natural persistence in catchment and coastal processes
will tend to cause the outputs to be consistently higher or lower than observed values
for at least part of the event, with timing errors also showing persistence over time.
A time series model can then be fitted either to historical datasets, resulting in a
fixed set of parameter values, or can be dynamically fitted during an event as it
progresses. The forecast values from time now are then adjusted based on the
output from the time series model. The effects of these adjustments vary between
approaches but tend to force the forecast values to match observed values at time
107
now, with the magnitude of the adjustments decaying into the future as the information content of the observed values reduces.
Some examples of automated approaches to error prediction include autoregressive techniques (e.g. AR, ARMA), transfer function, and neural network techniques (e.g. Reed 1984; Rungo et al. 1989; Serban and Askew 1991; Moore 1999;
Goswami et al. 2005).
5.3.2
State updating techniques aim to adjust the initial conditions of the model to obtain
a better match between observed and forecast values at the start of the forecast
period (time now), and possibly over a number of time steps in the period leading
up to that point (e.g. Wohling et al. 2006). The approaches used vary between different categories of model and can be very model specific.
For conceptual models (see Chapter 6), state updating typically involves updating
the internal stores in the model (for a rainfall runoff model) or, in the case of a reservoir, the initial level for the simulation. For example, the adjustment may be made
using a gain factor which redistributes water between selected stores in the model
(e.g. Moore 1999). By contrast, process-based models such as hydrodynamic river
models (see Chapter 6) and coastal surge models (see Chapter 7) usually represent
the catchment or coastal response using a grid-based approach. In this case, the
updating problem is to distribute the forecast errors across the whole domain of grid
nodes based on what is usually a relatively small number of observation points (river
gauges, tide gauges etc.), whilst preserving conservation of mass and momentum,
and without producing unwanted transient effects from the input of potentially large
corrections at the grid squares closest to the points of observation.
For coastal models, many different approaches have been considered, including
empirical, sequential and variational methods, sometimes involving minimising of a
cost function which depends on functions of the differences between modelled and
observed values. A major international initiative (the Global Ocean Data Assimilation
Experiment: GODAE) is also exploring new and improved techniques for data
assimilation in ocean forecasting models (http://www.godae.org/), including the use
of satellite altimetry to widen the extent of data available for assimilation.
Perhaps the simplest state updating technique of all is simply substitution of
observed values for forecast values; a technique which has been used for both river
and coastal models with some success, although at the risk of introducing oscillations and other unwanted behaviour into the model forecasts. Techniques which
adjust the input data to the model, such as inflows or rainfall values (e.g. Serban
and Askew 1991) are also sometimes considered as a form of state updating.
For example, for hydrodynamic models of rivers, one approach is to distribute the
error into the tributary and main river inflow components (e.g. Rungo et al. 1989).
For the future, low cost sensor networks, of the type described in Chapter 2, may
also provide the possibility of using many more updating points than is possible at
present, due to their small (unobtrusive) size and low cost of installation.
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5 General Principles
5.3.3
Other Techniques
For data-based models, such as transfer functions (see Chapters 6 and 7), the distinction
between approaches is perhaps less clear cut, and methods which have been used
for data assimilation include Recursive Least Squares, Adaptive Gain and Instrumental
Variable techniques, and various forms of Kalman filter, including extended
Kalman filter and ensemble Kalman filter approaches (e.g. Young and Tomlin
2000; Beven 2001; Romanowicz et al. 2006).
Kalman filter techniques have also been applied to other types of model; for
example, to operational coastal surge forecasting models in the Netherlands
(Verlaan et al. 2005), and to both rainfall runoff and hydrodynamic modelling
applications in the form of the ensemble Kalman filter (e.g. El Serafy and Mynett
2004; Weerts and El Serafy 2005; Butts et al. 2005).
5.4
5.4.1
The principles of model calibration for catchment and coastal models are well
established and are discussed in many books and technical papers (see Chapters 6
and 7 for examples). However, for flood forecasting applications, some additional
factors need to be considered, and these are briefly described in this section. These
include the overall structure of the model (if the model configuration can be varied),
and the optimisation criteria to be used in the calibration. Once a model is operational, the performance will also need to be monitored, both to advise users of the
likely accuracy, and to guide future improvements to the model and of the real time
sources of data used in its operation.
As with off-line models, it is useful to know how well the model can represent
the timing and magnitude of peak levels, flows, surge, wave, wind and other outputs, and the time history of values during the event (e.g. the shape of a river flow
109
Level
Flooding Threshold
Flows subsequently
observed
Time
Fig. 5.5 Illustration of forecasting issues related to threshold levels
hydrograph). However if the model is used in a flood warning application, then the
performance in the time leading up to the crossing of flood warning threshold levels
may also be of interest, together with other criteria, such as the success rate of issuing warnings, and the number of false alarms.
A related issue is that, due to model errors, some forecasts may not reach critical
threshold values, although the flows which are subsequently observed pass those
thresholds. Figure 5.5 shows three different examples of forecasts for a single hypothetical event (for example, from three different modelling approaches).
In this example, Forecast A correctly indicates that the flooding threshold will
be exceeded, although at a slightly later time than actually occurred, whilst
Forecasts B and C do not. Also, Forecasts A and B indicate that the flood warning
threshold will be exceeded, but Forecast C does not. Another scenario which can
occur, of course, is that the actual flows do not reach critical thresholds, but the
forecast predicts that those thresholds will be exceeded, in which case a false alarm
would be triggered by the forecast output.
These examples consider the case of single forecasts, issued at a given time (time
now). The start time of a forecast is often called the Forecast Origin, whilst the
maximum lead time which the forecast can reliably provide is called the forecast lead
time or forecast horizon. For river flow forecasting, the maximum useful forecast
lead time is of the order of the catchment response time, if observed rainfall values
are being used, but can be extended by using forecasts of catchment rainfall. The
model performance at each lead time can be assessed, leading to the concept of fixed
lead time forecasts, as illustrated in Fig. 5.6 for the case of a river flow forecast.
The figure shows seven forecasts at successive time intervals, with the Forecast
Origins shown as circles. In this example, the Forecast Origins coincide with the
actual flow values (as might be the case for some forms of real time updating),
although this need not necessarily be the case. As an example, the figure also shows
the values three time steps ahead for each forecast which, for hourly model runs,
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5 General Principles
Flow
Time
Fig. 5.6 Illustration of Fixed Lead Time forecasts (circles are fixed origins, triangles are 3-hour
ahead forecasts)
would be called the 3-hour ahead forecasts. These values can be joined by a smooth
(interpolated) curve to create the so-called 3-hour fixed lead time forecast. In this
example, at this lead time, the forecast flows are both later, and lower than, the values
which were subsequently observed (and which are shown by the dashed line).
Fixed lead time forecasts can be constructed for a range of lead times, and calibration
criteria and performance measures can be developed which make use of these
values. However, if data assimilation techniques are used, then the values obtained
may be significantly improved at shorter lead times, so any performance values
quoted should note whether or not updating was in operation.
An additional consideration is whether a probabilistic or ensemble approach is
used, since additional calibration and performance measures may be required as
discussed later.
5.4.2
Model Calibration
The objective in model calibration is to develop a model which best meets the
requirements of the modelling study. In flood forecasting applications, examples
might include the forecast lead time requirement, and the ability to estimate the
timing and magnitude of flood peaks, the times of crossing of thresholds, or levels
at a river control structure. Chapters 6 and 7 give some examples of how the requirement can influence the design of river and coastal flood forecasting models.
The approach to calibration depends partly on the choice of model, and can
include calibration in off-line/simulation mode, assuming perfect foresight of input
time series data (e.g. rainfall), or calibration in real time mode, only making use of
data up to the time at which each evaluation is performed.
In simulation mode, the model is optimised against a number of historical flood
events, possibly also including values for the intervening periods to assess the full
range of performance. In real time mode, the focus of calibration is typically on the
performance of fixed lead time forecasts.
111
Model identification choice of an appropriate structure for the model (if there
is a choice)
Choice of calibration criteria decisions on which criteria to use in model calibration, and the relative importance of each choice
Model optimisation optimisation using best fit, trial and error and other approaches
Model validation tests of model performance using additional datasets, not
used in the original calibration
Model Identification techniques can include trial and error for different configurations of model (e.g. alternative choices of stores in a conceptual rainfall runoff
model), or automated searches of a wide range of configurations (e.g. for some
types of transfer function model).
There are many approaches to model calibration and validation, including automated optimisation techniques, such as hill climbing, genetic algorithm, Monte
Carlo, and simulated annealing approaches (e.g. Beven 2001; Anderson and Bates
2001). Optimisation criteria can include the timing and magnitude of peak values,
measures of the overall shape of the hydrograph (bias, mean absolute error, root
mean square error, Nash Sutcliffe efficiency etc.), and threshold crossing measures
(e.g. the mean timing error in threshold crossings). Multi objective or multicriteria
techniques can also be used. For some of the more physically based model types,
some model parameters may also be fixed, or restricted to certain ranges, depending
on catchment, river or coastal characteristics.
Values can also be calculated on a fixed lead time basis, giving an indication of
how model performance changes with increasing lead time. For example, plots can
be produced of how mean square error, or Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency, decreases with
increasing lead time, and a cut-off value identified beyond which performance
drops below an acceptable level.
Additional threshold based criteria can also be defined using a contingency table
approach, as illustrated in Table 5.4.
Based on this table, the following parameters can be defined:
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5 General Principles
Table 5.4 Simple 2 2 contingency table for flood forecasting model
evaluation
Threshold crossed (observed)
Threshold crossed (forecast)
Yes
No
Yes
No
A
C
B
D
Each type of criterion has its own strengths and limitations; for example, measures
based on peak values obviously overlook many other aspects of model performance,
whilst some whole hydrograph measures (e.g. mean square error) can be sensitive to
small timing errors or outliers, and may not consider how performance varies with
magnitude (unless they are reported only above certain thresholds), or the sign of
errors (e.g. bias). Threshold based measures are closely linked to the operational
flood warning requirement, but are based on individual threshold values, although
these methods can be extended to sample over a range of possible choices of threshold values (e.g. Environment Agency 2004). Some trial and error may be required to
achieve a reasonable compromise across a number of flood events and criteria,
together with adoption of some best practice principles for model calibration for
flood forecasting, which include (e.g. Environment Agency 2002):
Data validation use validated, quality controlled data, particularly for values
during flood events (e.g. assessing the high flow performance of stage-discharge
relationships).
Data sources calibrate models to the same sources of data that will be used in
real time to avoid bias and other problems (e.g. if using radar rainfall data in real
time, calibrate to historical radar not raingauge data).
Type of event choose calibration datasets for events of the type(s) which the
model is required to represent (e.g. frontal events, thunderstorms, snowmelt).
Data currency use datasets representative of current conditions (e.g. since
flood defences were constructed, instruments installed, channels dredged etc.).
Run frequency set the model run frequency (if possible) to adequately resolve
the type of flood events being modelled, particularly in the time leading up to
flood warning thresholds.
Data assimilation use real time updating where the model type supports this,
and the data quality is good enough.
Model initialisation for types of models where this is important, focus on providing realistic initial conditions.
Model validation validate the model outputs against a number of flood events
not used in the original model calibration.
Also, for combinations of models, the performance of the overall network should be
assessed as well as for individual models within the network. As part of the model documentation, flooding mechanisms and other factors not represented in the model should
be highlighted to operational staff, together with the likely uncertainty in model outputs,
and the acceptable limits of model performance (maximum flows, lead times etc.).
5.4.3
113
Performance Measures
Once a flood forecasting model has been developed, and integrated into the operational forecasting environment, a period of pre-operational testing will often follow,
during which the performance and reliability of the model is assessed, before using
it in the flood warning process.
This monitoring will then continue as part of the routine assessment of the model,
and in particular to help to identify areas for improvements to the calibration and the
quality of the input data. Also, any sudden deterioration in performance can be identified; for example, due to changes in the accuracy of input data (e.g. stage-discharge
relationships), or in catchment or coastal characteristics (e.g. recently constructed
flood defences). Usually, model performance will need to be evaluated following
each major flood event, both for post-event reporting and to detect any event-related
problems which need to feed into the model development programme.
Modern flood forecasting systems often have the facility to automatically calculate
a wide range of model performance measures, including some of the real time measures described in the previous sections (e.g. contingency tables, and fixed lead time
performance). The types of methods used, and the scale of the assessment which is
possible will, in part, depend on the availability of observed data to use in the assessment, and may be limited for some types of model (e.g. process-based models). Also,
some types of information which it would be desirable to measure in real time (e.g.
inundation extent and depths) are difficult to capture other than by post event survey,
and may not be practicable to assess for every event.
For assessment of individual flood events, many of the calibration criteria
discussed in the previous section can provide useful information on model performance; for example (Environment Agency 2002, 2004; Werner and Self 2005):
The extent of validation will depend on the application, and in some cases several
measures will be evaluated to provide an overall view of the different aspects of model
performance, and, if relevant, may extend to analyses of performance with respect to
specific aspects of model performance; for example, closures at a flow control structure, or flow diversions to an off-line storage reservoir. Values can also be normalised
to facilitate comparisons of trend and variability between different locations. Also,
since real time updating can have a significant influence on performance, it is important to indicate whether or not updating was used in the model runs (if applicable).
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5 General Principles
For evaluating long term performance over a number of events, or when considering
the performance of a number of models in a single event (e.g. for post event reporting), it is useful to consider methods for aggregating outputs to allow an overall
picture of performance to be obtained. In this situation, it can also be useful to
introduce some more operationally focussed performance measures; for example,
the success rate for issuing flood warnings, or for property owners acting upon
warnings received. However, measures of this type depend on factors beyond just
the model performance, and are discussed in more detail in Chapter 11.
Some examples of aggregation methods for evaluating forecasting model
performance include:
5.5
Model Uncertainty
As noted in Chapter 1, uncertainties in the flood forecasting process can arise from
many sources, and it is widely agreed that flood forecasts should be issued with an
indication of confidence or uncertainty (e.g. Krzysztofowicz 2001). Information on
uncertainty can also help with deciding where to focus effort on future model development and data improvement programmes. Some sources of uncertainty in flood
forecasting models can include (e.g. Butts et al. 2005):
115
Table 5.5 provides examples of some additional sources of uncertainty in river and
coastal forecasting models.
Table 5.5 Some of the main sources of uncertainty in river flood forecasting models (Environment
Agency 2007; Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2008. All rights reserved)
Component
River models
Catchment averaging procedures (for raingauges)
Model calibration
Operational
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5 General Principles
Calibration
Operational
Data assimilation
Some data assimilation techniques, such as the Kalman Filter, also automatically provide an estimate of uncertainty as part of the assimilation process (see Section 5.3).
One general distinction between approaches is whether the likely uncertainty in input
data, parameters etc. is defined beforehand based on previous forecasts, or assessed
dynamically, during a flood event, based on current forecasts and observed data.
Sensitivity tests can include what if scenarios, of the type described in Section
5.2, whilst Rotach et al. (2007) provide an example of a real time multi-model
approach in which the outputs from a wide range of atmospheric models, and conceptual and process-based catchment flood forecasting models, can be compared in
a common format, with colour coding on maps and tables to show where threshold
levels have been exceeded for specific locations.
117
Probabilistic and ensemble approaches are an active area for research in flood
forecasting, with several operational systems under development worldwide.
Probabilistic approaches generate multiple scenarios for model outputs by random
sampling from probability distributions for the model parameters, initial conditions, boundary conditions, or input data, and many hundreds or thousands of scenarios might be generated offline, for subsequent analysis, or in real time.
For example, Pappenberger et al. (2004) describe Monte Carlo sampling of rating
curve and roughness coefficient uncertainty in a hydraulic model, whilst Pappenberger
et al. (2007) describe studies into the influence of uncertainty on flood inundation
extent using multiple combinations of effective model parameters for a 2D flood
inundation model. By contrast, ensemble techniques employ a more focussed sampling technique (sometimes on account of constraints on model run times) to derive
a smaller number of realisations (typically of the order 10100) which span the
likely range of outcomes (Box 5.2).
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5 General Principles
Antecedent conditions
Rating
River flows
Flow
Level
Rating
Flow
Storm
River Gauging Station
Town
Raingauge
Fig. 5.7 Illustration of some sources of uncertainty for a catchment flood forecasting problem
Flow
Flow
Time
Time
Flow
Flow
Time
Time
Fig. 5.8 Illustration of graphical presentations of ensemble outputs for a flow hydrograph
(continued)
119
Two major research programmes which are considering these and other topics are:
Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) an international collaboration in ensemble flood forecasting techniques involving scientists from the
National Weather Service in the USA, the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the European Joint Research Centre, Canada,
Italy, Brazil, Bangladesh and elsewhere (Schaake et al. 2005)
COST-731 uncertainty in advanced meteo-hydrological forecast systems a
European initiative to examine meteorological and hydrological techniques for ensemble flood forecasting, including the use of forecasts in decision making (e.g. flood
warning), and involving meteorological and hydrological services from more than ten
European countries (European Cooperation in Science and Technical Research)
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5 General Principles
Table 5.6 also presents several examples of research and operational studies in flood
forecasting applications, whilst later chapters provide additional examples for coastal
applications, and of using probabilistic forecasts to assist in optimising decision making
for flood control and emergency response (Box 5.3).
Table 5.6 Examples of research and operational applications of probabilistic and ensemble flood
forecasting techniques
System
Extended Streamflow
Prediction System, USA
Environment Agency, UK
Lower Severn, UK
Probabilistic or ensemble
component
Reference
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5 General Principles
Chapter 6
Rivers
Flood forecasting models for rivers can range from simple empirical relationships
to complex integrated catchment models. Forecasts may be based simply on river
level or flow observations at locations upstream of the site of interest, or use observations and possibly forecasts of rainfall to gain additional lead time. This chapter
begins with a discussion of the main factors which can influence the design of a
river flood forecasting model, including the forecasting requirement and the availability of real time data, and then describes two main categories of model; rainfall
runoff models, and river channel (flow routing) models. Examples are provided for
a range of process-based and conceptual modelling techniques, and for data-based
approaches such as transfer function and artificial neural network models.
6.1
Model Design
River forecasting models aim to estimate river conditions at or near sites of interest
in a river basin (or catchment), such as locations at which there is a flooding history,
or where studies suggest that there may be a significant flood risk. Forecasts may
also be required at specific structures, such as reservoirs or flow control gates, to
assist with real time control of river flows to mitigate flooding.
The modelling approaches used in flood forecasting applications have many
similarities with the techniques used for catchment simulation, and the factors
which need to be considered during the initial catchment conceptualisation include
the catchment response (response times, lakes, reservoirs etc.), local influences on
river levels (tidal, backwater, confluences, structures etc.), any artificial controls on
flows (dams, river gates, tidal barriers, abstractions/discharges etc.), and other factors, such as snowmelt and groundwater influences. Chapter 8 discusses modelling
approaches for several of these possible catchment forecasting problems.
For real time applications, the following factors also need to be considered when
considering the most appropriate approach to use:
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Model design is therefore often a compromise, and the overall approach may also
be constrained by additional factors such as costs and system limitations, as discussed in Chapter 11. Chapter 5 discusses some of the factors to consider regarding
forecasting systems and model performance requirements, whilst the following sections present a brief summary of the remaining topics.
6.1.1
Forecasting Requirement
For a given location, there may be more than one Forecasting Point; for example, a
single Flood Warning Area could include points at several anticipated overtopping
locations in a flood defence system.
Where Forecasting Points are separated by some distance, another consideration
is whether to develop individual models appropriate to each point, or an integrated
catchment model covering the whole catchment (or, at least, the catchment above
the furthest point downstream). The integrated solution may be more complex and
expensive to develop initially, but may reduce telemetry requirements, and may
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allow solutions to be developed for intermediate Forecasting Points where the risk
and benefits are too low to justify development of a forecasting model specifically
for that location, such as small numbers of properties or farmland. Chapter 8 provides more background on integrated catchment modelling techniques.
The intended use of forecasts can also strongly influence the types of model
which are selected. For example, it can be useful to view the problem from the point
of view of potential users of the forecasts, such as the emergency services, local
authorities, and the public, and Table 6.1 provides some examples of how user
requirements can translate into a modelling requirement.
Here, the term hydrograph refers to the variation in river levels or flows over
time. These examples, although simplified, illustrate that the complexity of the
modelling approach can potentially vary considerably between applications.
Models may also be required for purposes other than flood forecasting; for example, for forecasting water resource availability, or water depths and velocities for
navigation, and again Chapter 8 discusses this topic in more detail.
In some of these applications, the main interest is in forecasts of river levels and
flows in the time leading up to crossing of a threshold value which, as described in
Chapter 3, can be at levels some way below the flood peak. This requirement can
have implications for the choice of model; for example, for hydrodynamic models,
if thresholds are set at river levels for which flows remain in channel, then there
may be no particular requirement to model the details of floodplain flows or flood
Table 6.1 Illustration of how user requirements can translate to a modelling requirement
(Adapted from Environment Agency 2002, Environment Agency copyright and/or database
right 2008. All rights reserved)
Question
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defence overtopping in the neighbourhood of Forecasting Points, which can simplify the overall model development (although it is usually useful to know the likely
timing and magnitude of peak levels at telemetry sites).
If there are no limitations on budget, then one option is to produce the best
model that is technically feasible, including floodplain flows, river control structures, and other factors, as appropriate. However, even the best models make some
assumptions, and may not include all flooding mechanisms (e.g. urban drainage),
so it is important to be realistic about what the model can (and cannot) achieve in
discussions with potential users of the forecast outputs. Also, sometimes a simple
model, such as a regression relationship, may meet the requirement, representing a
considerable saving in development time and costs compared to a more sophisticated approach.
In many cases, the choice of modelling approach is also influenced by the level
of flood risk at the selected Forecasting Points. For example, if only a few properties are at risk from occasional flooding, there may be less justification for developing a complex model than for a major city, with thousands of properties at risk.
These economic aspects of model selection are discussed in Chapter 11 as part of
a wider discussion of the costs and benefits of flood warning.
6.1.2
Data Availability
In addition to the availability of historical calibration data, and survey and other
static data, a key consideration in designing river forecasting models is the availability of near real time data for model operation and real time updating. Whilst historical records are useful for exploring catchment rainfall distributions and flow
response, and in model calibration, ultimately the model needs to be configured to
operate using the real time data feeds which are available.
As discussed in Chapter 2, these can include rainfall observations from raingauges, weather radar and satellite, and rainfall forecasts from nowcasting and
Numerical Weather Prediction models, and observations of river level and flows,
but may also include information on control structure settings, pumping operations,
reservoir levels, evaporation, catchment conditions, and other parameters. Also, as
described in Chapter 10, the forecasting model may form part of a wider decision
support system incorporating information on flood defence condition, locations of
temporary defences (barrier, sandbags etc.), and the current flooding situation
(floodplain depths etc.).
The requirement for forecast lead time is an important consideration in the
choice of modelling approach, since this may influence whether a river channel
(flow routing) model relying simply on information from locations further upstream
is sufficient, or whether a rainfall runoff model, representing the relationship
between rainfall and flow, is required. Generally there is a trade-off between
increasing lead time and decreasing forecast accuracy (e.g. Reed 1984; Environment
Agency 2002), as illustrated in Table 6.2.
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Table 6.2 Illustration of the trade-off between forecast lead time and accuracy
Approach in order of decreasing lead time
Typical modelling approach
Rainfall forecasts (e.g. Numerical Weather Prediction)
Rainfall observations (e.g. raingauge, weather radar)
River flow forecasts upstream of the Forecasting Point
River flow observations upstream of the Forecasting Point
Various attempts have been made to link the choice of model to catchment
response; for example, Reed (1984) proposed the following criteria based on the
characteristic response time of the catchment (TP):
TP 3 hours
3 TP 9 hours
TP 9 hours
However, this was only proposed as a rule of thumb, and the many assumptions in this
approach were noted. Later approaches have included additional factors such as a distinction between overland and river channel flows (e.g. Lettenmaier and Wood 1993),
and allowances for the various time delays in the data processing, model run, and dissemination chain which are discussed in Chapters 5 and 9 (e.g. Tilford et al. 2007).
Map based presentations of catchment response can also help in deciding on an
appropriate choice of models; for example, by plotting lines of equal response
times based on analyses of historical data, or modelling studies, together with the
locations of key Forecasting Points. Figure 6.1 illustrates one example (Box 6.1)
and Chapter 3 provides a further example, and more sophisticated contoured or grid
based analyses are easily performed using Geographical Information Systems.
When estimating response times using historical rainfall and flow data, care
should be taken to choose events of a similar magnitude and type to those for which
the model is required, if this information is available. For example, response times
can vary significantly depending on catchment antecedent conditions, and whether
river flows are in-bank or extend onto the floodplain.
For a given forecasting problem, some issues which may influence the choice of
real time data inputs used, and the overall modelling approach, include:
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for inclusion in the model, but have poor or unreliable outputs. In particular,
performance during heavy rainfall and high flow conditions will need to be considered, particularly for river gauges; for example, the risk of flows bypassing
the gauge, backwater influences, and the accuracy of the high flow end of stagedischarge relationships (see Chapter 2).
Data reliability Since a primary requirement of a forecasting model is to operate during flood events, the reliability of real time data feeds during heavy rainfall is of particular importance; for example, is a monitoring station likely to be
flooded, or telemetry links interrupted? A fall-back hierarchy of data inputs may
need to be considered, and the model calibrated or tested for each of these scenarios (see Chapter 5).
Model initialisation requirements Certain types of model may have particular
requirements for real time information to initialise the model state. Examples
include reservoir models, for which information on reservoir levels and gate settings (if applicable) is usually required, hydrodynamic models, and some types
of rainfall runoff model, which may need long runs of historical data to reinitialise
after a break in operations.
Data assimilation If real time updating is used, data quality issues are of particular importance for any river gauging stations which are used as updating
locations. If data quality is a concern, then other options may need to be considered, such as not using updating at those locations, or only updating within
specified flow ranges (see Chapter 5).
Ensemble forecasting If a probabilistic or ensemble approach is to be used for
rainfall or other inputs (see Chapter 5), then multiple model runs may need to be
performed at each forecasting time step, with possible issues of model run times
and post processing of model outputs.
6.1.3
Type of Model
Process or physically based models which model the spatial variations in catchment or river response in detail, typically using physically based equations or
functions, on a regular or irregular grid (sometimes called distributed models)
Conceptual models which, although to a certain extent physically based, conceptualise the overall catchment or river response, whilst still representing the
main features of the response
Data based models which use systems analysis concepts, such as transfer functions and artificial neural networks, to capture the main features of river response
(and are sometimes called data driven, metric or black box models)
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1
Reservoir
1 hr
3 hrs
2
C
2 hrs
5 hrs
2 hrs
7 hrs
A wide range of modelling solutions could be proposed, ranging from a simple correlation based approach, to a full hydrodynamic modelling solution.
Configuration 1
Rainfall
Runoff 1
Rain 1
Gauge D
Configuration 2
Rainfall
Runoff 1
Rain 1
Rain 2
Gauge A
Rainfall
Runoff 2
Gauge B
Rainfall
Runoff 3
Gauge C
Routing 1
Gauge D
(continued)
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available, the ability to run models in real time, and the availability of real time data for
model operation. Some types of model may also be better suited to certain types of
forecasting problem than others, and Chapter 8 presents examples of a variety of forecasting approaches for flash floods, snowmelt, river ice, reservoirs, control structures,
urban drainage and geotechnical risks such as dam break and flood defence breaches.
The skills and modelling preferences of individuals can also be a factor and,
whilst it might be anticipated that the more complex types of model would have
better performance, this is not necessarily always the case in real time applications
(e.g. Beven 2001; Arduino et al. 2005). For example, for rainfall runoff models,
Table 6.3 provides some examples of the advantages which are sometimes stated
for each general type of model when used for flood forecasting applications.
A similar table could also be produced for flow routing models. Here, a parsimonious model is one which is no more complex than necessary to predict the
observations sufficiently accurately to be useful, and links to the concept of equifinality, which is that there may be many models of a catchment (e.g. parameter sets
for an individual type of model) that are acceptably consistent with the observations
available (e.g. Beven 2001).
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Table 6.3 Some potential advantages of different rainfall runoff modelling approaches
Type
Description
Conceptual models
Later sections also discuss some other factors to consider in the choice of
approach, including model run times, model performance outside the range of calibration, model stability, the representation of variations in runoff within a catchment, and of catchment initial conditions, and the number of parameters which
need to be estimated or calibrated.
Another approach to the question of model selection is to use more than one
model for a given forecasting problem and to compare the outputs to see if they
agree on likely future flows and, in particular, on the possibility of flooding thresholds being exceeded (e.g. Rotach et al. 2007).
Some additional factors to consider in choosing the optimum modelling
approach include:
Is the availability and quality of real time data sufficient to develop a useful
model?
Are the catchment and flooding processes understood well enough to develop a
suitable model?
For example, it is often the case that the near real time information available is not
as complete or reliable as would ideally be required, or that there are uncertainties
in how the catchment responds to rainfall, or the precise conditions which cause
flooding to occur. If rain gauge information on rainfall is insufficient, then one
option is to use inputs from other techniques with an improved spatial coverage,
such as weather radar data, Numerical Weather Prediction or nowcasting model
outputs, and satellite data. Best practice would then be to investigate the performance of these inputs using historical records for the catchment (or nearby catchments)
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and, if satisfied with the performance, to calibrate the model directly to the inputs
which will be used in real time.
If the river gauge coverage is incomplete, one option might be to delay implementation of the model until sufficient real time data is available. Temporary monitoring equipment, such as water level recorders, might also be installed, and
exploratory modelling studies performed to better understand the catchment
response. An interim model could also be developed, providing a basic framework
for flood forecasting, but with some components scheduled for improvement when
additional information becomes available.
If the decision is taken to install new monitoring equipment, this introduces a
delay into the model development programme whilst site permissions are obtained,
site works are completed, and a period of reliable data is collected to use in model
calibration. Some options for accelerating this process include adding a telemetry
link to existing instruments which are known to perform reliably, or upgrading
existing equipment to resolve known problems, such as with the high flow end of
stage discharge relationships (see Chapter 2).
The approach used will depend on the time and budget available, and Chapter
11 describes a range of approaches to prioritisation of investment. For the telemetry
and modelling solution aspects, some additional guidance can also be found in Sene
et al. (2006) and Tilford et al. (2007).
6.2
6.2.1
Rainfall runoff models aim to estimate flows in a river channel from observations
or forecasts of rainfall, and are sometimes called hydrological or hydrologic models.
If observed values of rainfall are used, the maximum lead time provided is typically
similar to the average response time of the catchment to rainfall, although may be
influenced by factors such as initial catchment conditions, snowmelt, storm speed
and direction, and reservoir storage.
In many cases, the lead time provided by using observed rainfall from raingauges or weather radar can be sufficient, but can be extended by using rainfall
forecasts, although usually with a trade off between increasing lead time and
decreasing accuracy and a coarser spatial resolution. Some general categories of
rainfall runoff model include:
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to use with weather radar or satellite data, and nowcasting and Numerical
Weather Prediction model forecasts, although rainfall fields derived from raingauge observations can also be used. Models of this type can, in principle, represent the spatial variations in runoff which occur as a storm passes over a
catchment, including modelling the influence of storm path and direction on
flood response. Some alternative names which are used include distributed models,
and physically based models (although the degree to which processes are modeled can vary between each approach).
Conceptual models sometimes called lumped conceptual models, also use a
physically based approach in the sense that they attempt to capture the main features of catchment response through empirical and simple physically-based equations. However, models are typically formulated at the scale of the whole
catchment, and use rainfall inputs averaged (or lumped) at that scale, hence losing
some of the detail of the flood response provided by a fully distributed approach.
Data based models such as transfer functions and artificial neural networks typically view the rainfall-flow or rainfall-level forecasting problem from a systems
analysis perspective, with the aim often being to optimise forecasts at one or more
lead times (1 hour ahead, 2 hours ahead, for example), making best use of all real
time data available on current and past rainfall and river conditions. Rainfall inputs
are typically used as received, and are not pre-processed to catchment or grid
scale. Some alternative names for this type of model include Black Box or Metric
models. One of the earliest types of model to be used was the unit hydrograph
approach (Sherman 1932), although this has various drawbacks for real time application, and is little used nowadays in flood forecasting applications.
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variations in runoff as a storm passes across a catchment (see Section 6.1 and
Chapter 8 for examples of this approach)
There have been several major intercomparison studies of the performance of
different types of rainfall runoff model, including the following two studies:
However, due to the number of factors to consider, conclusions from this type of
study can sometimes be mixed, and Reed (1984), for example, suggests that a thorough assessment of rainfall runoff methods for flood forecasting might need to
consider:
However, despite these difficulties, intercomparisons can provide useful insights into
model performance, and some general conclusions on factors which can influence
the performance of rainfall runoff models in forecasting applications include:
Calibration the approach used to calibration, the calibration criteria used, and
more qualitative factors, such as the skill of the modeller. Also, for real time applications, it is often appropriate to use additional performance measures, based on
threshold crossing and the model performance at different lead times, in addition
to the classical measures used for simulation modelling (see Chapter 5).
Initial conditions except in some locations (e.g. some desert mountains), the
runoff generated by a catchment often depends strongly on catchment initial
conditions (soil moisture, reservoir and lake levels, snowcover etc.). The degree
to which a model is able to capture this effect is an important consideration for
rainfall runoff models.
Real time updating given the many uncertainties in measuring and forecasting
rainfall, and estimating the resulting flows, updating (or data assimilation) can
be particularly effective for rainfall runoff models, provided that the data quality
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6.2.2
Process-Based Models
Process based, distributed or physically based hydrological models have been used
in research and simulation studies for many years (e.g. Vieux 2004) and are gradually being adopted for real time forecasting applications.
Historically, one of the obstacles to real time use has been that models of this
type are data hungry, in the sense that they require detailed spatial information on
rainfall, temperature, evaporation, land use, catchment state and other factors, and
model run times may be too long. Increasingly, however, these problems are being
overcome through improvements in computing power, and the resolution of weather
radar data and weather forecasting models, and in remote sensing and spatial analysis
techniques for assessing factors such as topography, vegetation, land use, river networks etc. In particular, in recent years, for short forecast lead times, the typical
horizontal resolution of the nowcasting and Numerical Weather Prediction models
used for weather forecasting (see Chapter 2) has started to reach grid scales which
are of interest for hydrological modelling, which are often a few kilometres or less,
depending on catchment size.
One distinguishing feature of the process based approach is that often the model
parameters are defined to be within specified ranges depending on soil type, slope,
land use, river channel hydraulic characteristics, and other factors. Values are typically derived from laboratory or field experiments, or datasets from previous studies
on other catchments, and the initial model calibration consists of choosing the most
appropriate parameter set given the characteristics of the catchment. Parameter
values are then fine tuned to achieve a good match between observed and forecast
flows, either by trial and error, or by using optimisation algorithms for those parameters for which values are uncertain. Bayesian and other approaches may also be
used to provide an assessment of model and parameter uncertainty. This approach
contrasts with the conceptual and data based approaches described later in which
model parameters are typically estimated primarily by minimising one or more
measures of model fit.
Many types of process-based model have been proposed, and some typical
features can include one or more of the following components:
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Alternative grid configurations can also be used, in which flows are either translated
between grid cells, or routed directly to the catchment outlet (e.g. Moore et al. 2006).
For flood forecasting applications, the choice of model will depend on many of
the factors described already, including the forecasting requirement, catchment
response, forecasting system, real time data availability etc., and the information
available for model set up and calibration.
Some real time flood forecasting applications of process-based models include
the following examples:
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As studies like these progress, the options for forecasting on ungauged catchments
should improve, and this topic is discussed further in Chapters 3 and 8.
6.2.3
Conceptual Models
Conceptual rainfall runoff models have many similarities to process based models,
but operate at a catchment scale, and place less reliance on a physically based
description of response. Typically, models represent the flow of water using a series
of conceptual stores, which fill and empty depending on the rainfall inputs, and lose
water from the system due to evaporation (from open water), evapotranspiration
(from vegetation), and to river flows.
Many types of conceptual model have been proposed, and some typical components can include one or more stores of the following types:
Individual stores may also be represented in a variety of ways, with options including modelling of outflows as a function either of volume stored (e.g. linear or power
law functions), or using stores with fixed volumes which pass water downstream
once they fill and overflow.
For flood forecasting applications, conceptual models are typically calibrated by
trying to achieve a good representation of observed flows across several flood
events, and possibly also for the intervening flow periods, to achieve a long term
water balance. The criteria for optimisation can include factors such as the shape of
the hydrograph, the peak levels reached, mean square error, bias, and various real
time related statistics such as those described in Chapter 5. Some types of models
may have 1520 or more parameters to consider, and a typical approach is to optimise a few parameters at a time (e.g. for the baseflow component), holding all others
constant, and perhaps placing bounds on the permitted values. The optimisation
scheme may also explicitly, or implicitly, include the parameters for the following
two additional modelling components:
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Real time updating can be particularly important for conceptual rainfall runoff
models to compensate for uncertainties in rainfall values, initial conditions and
other factors. As noted in Chapter 5, error prediction, state updating and parameter updating techniques can all be used although, given the process based
flavour of the approach, parameter updating is less widely used.
Many different types of conceptual model have been developed for flood forecasting and other applications (e.g. World Meteorological Organisation 1994), and the
intercomparison experiments described earlier present several examples. Some
approaches which have been used in flood forecasting applications include:
No subsurface store for models used primarily for flood forecasting, one option is
to use an event based approach and to omit the subsurface component entirely, on the
basis that runoff during a flood event occurs primarily by surface flow. Instead, a fixed
or variable runoff coefficient is introduced to represent the proportion of rainfall
which goes to surface runoff, such as in the Isolated Event Model, for example.
Enhanced subsurface stores additional submodels can be included, or updating can
be based on real time monitoring of groundwater levels, to represent the influence
of groundwater levels and storage on river runoff where this is a significant factor.
Soil store use of a probability distribution for soil moisture storage to take account
of the variations in soil storage which occur in a catchment (e.g. Moore 1985).
Time delays although the store outflow parameterisations typically provide
some time delay between inflows and outflows, it can be helpful to include
additional lag parameters to assist with fitting the overall model to represent
the time delays in surface and subsurface flow pathways.
Complicating features some models include the facility to model reservoirs
(including control rules), irrigation schemes, abstractions and discharges related
to water supply, and other factors which influence river flows.
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As with process based models, attempts have been made to relate the parameters
of conceptual models to catchment characteristics, although results are often
dependent on the type of model. However, this approach can help to reduce the
work required in model calibration, and also opens the way to forecasting flows on
ungauged catchments (i.e. catchments with no river gauging telemetry).
6.2.4
Data-Based Methods
Data-Based methods are used in many technical fields for the real time forecasting
and control of complex systems. Examples can be found in the transportation,
industrial process, aviation and financial forecasting sectors, and include transfer
functions, artificial neural networks, and fuzzy logic techniques.
In flood forecasting applications, the main use is usually for rainfall runoff modelling, although data-based methods have also been used for river flow routing,
estuary forecasting, and coastal surge forecasting as described in later sections and
chapters. Data-based rainfall runoff models can also be used to forecast river levels
directly (i.e. rainfall-level models), although a cautionary note is that this may only
work well if there is a unique relationship between levels and flows at the selected
Forecasting Point (for example, if there are no significant backwater influences).
In the early years, one of the drivers for development was the limited computing
power available at that time, and data-based models generally run more quickly
than a more physically based approach. With current processor speeds this is nowadays much less of a consideration, except in the case of ensemble forecasting,
where data based techniques have potential as emulators for models with longer run
times (e.g. process based models).
However, the data based approach also views flood forecasting from more of
a systems perspective, in which the main aim is to develop a model to infer future
conditions at one or more locations (Forecasting Points), making best use of all
of the real time and historical information available at the time of the forecast,
and often providing a measure of uncertainty in the resulting outputs. In particular,
models are often optimised to provide forecasts of the particular parameter of
interest for flood warning, at the lead times which are most useful operationally.
This contrasts with the more physically based approaches, in which the focus for
calibration is often reproducing the shape and timing of the whole hydrograph
across a number of events in simulation (off-line) mode, although both threshold
and lead time based criteria are increasingly being used in model development
(see Chapter 5).
Perhaps the most widely used data-based techniques are the transfer function
and artificial neural network approaches. Transfer functions are one of a wide range
of time series analyses techniques used in a range of industries (Box and Jenkins
1970) and can be combined into networks to form integrated catchment models
(e.g. Beven et al. 2005). Various related autoregressive techniques have also been
considered for forecasting applications, although have been less widely used
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(although are used extensively in some of the real time updating approaches
described in Chapter 5).
For flood forecasting applications, a simple transfer function formulation might
relate river flows at time t (Qt) to flows and/or rainfall (P) at previous time steps as
follows:
Qt = a1Qt-1 + a2Qt-2amQt-m + b0Pt-T + b1Pt-1-T + b2Pt-2-T + bnPt-n-T
(6.1)
where ai and bi are the parameters of the model, and T is a fixed time delay. A model
with m flow parameters and n rainfall parameters is said to be of structure or order
(m, n, T). A random noise component may also be included, although is not shown
here. An important objective in transfer function modelling is often to derive a
model which uses the minimum number of parameters possible (i.e. is parsimonious). The use of a time delay, whilst not essential, can help in reducing the overall
number of parameters required.
Some potential issues with the basic linear approach represented by Equation
(6.1) are that flows are unconstrained and may be oscillatory or negative, and that
the use of observed (total) rainfall can fail to capture the influence of initial catchment state on runoff.
One way to reduce the risk of oscillatory response is to minimise the number of
parameters used. Alternatively, the mathematical formulation can be redefined to
provide a constrained and stable output; for example, in the Physically Realisable
Transfer Function (PRTF) approach of Han (1991).
Various techniques have also been developed to account for non-linear influences on river flows such as initial catchment conditions, and these include:
Effective rainfall inputs using only a proportion of the total rainfall to drive the
model, with rainfall separation techniques including use of a variable, thresholdbased or fixed runoff coefficient, perhaps related to initial catchment state, or
functions based on real time observations of parameters which may influence
runoff (e.g. air temperature), or continuous soil moisture accounting (e.g. Moore
1982; Lees 2000)
Flow based initialisation using the current observed flow as a surrogate for
catchment state (for example, a dry catchment will usually have lower flows
than a wet catchment) (e.g. Young and Tomlin 2000)
Parallel pathway representation interpretation of the model in terms of one or
more linear pathways in parallel which represent the different time responses of
key catchment processes, such as surface and groundwater flows (e.g. Beven
2001; Young 2001)
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model may be sufficient for a small, fast response catchment, but a multiple pathway model might be more appropriate to represent runoff in a large complex catchment with significant groundwater influences. Real time updating techniques may
also be used to help to account for the differences between observed and forecast
flows and can include flow substitution, adaptive gain, transfer function noise,
genetic algorithm, and Kalman filter methods (including extended and ensemble
versions), and are intrinsic to some approaches.
Artificial neural networks also use a parallel pathway approach, although with
many more layers or pathways in the formulation. The building blocks of a network
typically include components such as neurons, summing junctions, and activation
functions. For flood forecasting applications, one aspect of the model development
(often called training) is to achieve a compromise between including too few
neurons, thereby failing to capture the full range of river flow response, and using
too many neurons, focussing on the noise rather than the underlying river flow signal (see Section 7.3 for more information).
The potential for rainfall runoff modelling applications has been the subject of
several review studies (e.g. Dawson and Wilby 1999; ASCE 2000), and the technique has been trialled in various flood forecasting applications (e.g. Solomatine
and Price 2004; Abrahart et al. 2004). One active area of research is into how models can be formulated to provide reliable predictions of extreme events, beyond
those in the calibration or training dataset.
6.3
6.3.1
Whilst rainfall runoff models represent the translation of rainfall into inflows to a
river network, river channel models represent the flow of water within that network,
and include the following approaches:
All of these approaches have been used successfully in river flow forecasting applications. Note that level to level, and flow to flow, correlations may also be regarded
as a type of river forecasting model, but for convenience are discussed in Chapter 3,
together with a range of other simpler empirical flood forecasting techniques.
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6 Rivers
Backwater influences river levels at a Forecasting Point are influenced by river levels
downstream of that point; for example, from tidal influences, inflows from a tributary,
or operations at a river control structure. Often this leads to a non-unique relationship
between river levels and flows, which simpler models may not be able to capture.
Spillage river levels may exceed the height of natural river banks, or of flood
defences. Flows may be permanently lost to the river system, or may re-enter
further downstream, or as river levels drop.
Natural floodplains flows onto floodplains will tend to reduce (attenuate) the
magnitude of flow peaks further downstream, and delay the arrival of the peak.
Lakes, wetlands and marshes have a similar influence.
Embanked river channels flows may spill and be lost permanently from the river
network unless there is a return route via pumping or gravity drainage. However,
return flows may not occur until river levels have dropped considerably.
Artificial influences influences from dams, river control structures, off-line
storage (polders, washlands), pumped or gravity fed flows and other factors may
affect the timing, magnitude and duration of flood peaks.
Tributary inflows inflows may contribute to peak flows in the main river channel,
and may have different response characteristics to main channel flows (faster
rate of rise etc.).
The following sections describe the extent to which these various factors can be
represented by the three main types of modelling approach.
6.3.2
The velocity and depth of flows in a river reach depends upon the inflow of water to the
reach, friction losses, and changes in river slope, width and shape along the channel (e.g.
Chow 1959; Chanson 2004). The unsteady water flow in a natural river is governed by
the principles of conservation of mass and momentum.
Except in certain simplified situations, the resulting equations cannot be solved
analytically, and must normally be solved numerically. Solutions can be obtained
using one-dimensional (1D), two-dimensional (2D) or three-dimensional (3D)
approaches, although 1D and, to a lesser extent, 2D approaches are most widely
used in river flood forecasting applications. Typically, solutions are obtained on a
regular or irregular grid using finite difference approaches, although finite element
143
and finite volume approaches can be used. One widely used approximation for one
dimensional flows is the assumption of a gradual variation of flow and a hydrostatic
pressure distribution, which results in the well-known Saint-Venant equations.
The friction terms are typically parameterised using an empirically based roughness coefficient (e.g. Mannings n) which may be fixed or vary along the river reach,
and may be estimated from look up tables or a database of values for channels with
similar characteristics (bed type, vegetation etc.). Hydraulic controls on river levels
such as bridges, weirs and river control structures may be represented by sub-models,
typically parameterised using a loss coefficient. Logical rules may be included for
barrier, gate and other operations.
The information required to develop a model typically includes:
Model run times models initially developed for off-line flow simulation can
run too slowly to be useful for real time operation
Stability numerical problems can arise from the discretisation in time and
space causing models to exhibit unstable or oscillatory behaviour, or even to stop
operating during a model run
Convergence failure of the model to achieve the required accuracy within a
specified number of iterations of the solver scheme
Initial conditions may need to be saved between model runs, and carefully
specified to avoid stability problems
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6 Rivers
Survey requirements the required survey data may not be available, or too
expensive to capture given available budgets, or of insufficient resolution
Ungauged inflows if there are significant ungauged inflows, then flows may
need to be estimated using techniques for ungauged catchments (see Chapter 8)
In addition, the model may not have initially been developed for estimating high
flows, and have performance, stability, and other problems (e.g. with the high flow
end of stage discharge relationships) under these conditions. These problems are
all potentially solved, although can require considerable expertise to achieve a fast
stable model. The following options are possibilities (Huband and Sene 2005;
Chen et al. 2005):
Figure 6.3 shows an example of how both the spacing and lateral extent of river
cross sections might be tailored to modelling river levels or flows for a Flood
Warning Area, with sparse hydrodynamic modelling elsewhere except in the vicinity of a telemetry site (where an estimate for the high flow rating is required).
Improvements to model stability and convergence, and reductions in complexity, will generally also improve model run times, both through reductions in the
number of calculations required per iteration, and the number of iterations
required.
Another consideration with hydrodynamic models is whether to use real time
updating. The simplest option is to split the model at key river telemetry sites, and
to update the model outputs using an independent error prediction algorithm.
However, this can be undesirable since it removes the ability for forecasts of
downstream influences to feed back to locations upstream of the telemetry site,
145
INFLOW
Gauge
and mass and momentum conservation will not necessarily be maintained throughout the river network.
The main alternative is to attempt to update the model at internal model nodes,
and methods which have been developed include:
This topic is an active area of research since both state and parameter updating can
cause unwanted transient behaviour to propagate within the model domain.
6.3.3
Conceptual Models
Models run quickly, with stability and convergence problems less likely
River cross section information is not necessarily required
The techniques can work well on steep river sections, where a hydrodynamic
model might fail
The main restriction is that models work in terms of flows, and do not compute
levels, other than through optional application of a stage-discharge relationship.
There is also typically no representation of backwater influences, and the
approach is less suited to shallow sloping rivers. Some of the more complex river
flow phenomena described in the previous section also cannot easily be
represented.
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6 Rivers
One of the first methods to be developed was the Muskingum method. The
approach uses the concept of a triangular wedge and rectangular prism to represent storage in the river channel and flood wave, and aims to maintain a water balance
between upstream and downstream reaches. More recent developments have usually
adopted a more physically based approach, and include the following techniques:
Cunge (1969) showed that, with an appropriate choice of length and time steps, the
Muskingum Cunge method provides a good approximation to the convectivediffusion equation, which in turn is a simplification of the full St Venant equations.
Some studies have shown that, for a simple river channel with a floodplain but
no artificial influences, there is sometimes little to choose between fixed and variable parameter routing models in terms of predicting peak flows, but that variable
parameter models can perform better on the rising limb of the hydrograph. This can
be important in flood warning applications, where the interest may be in success at
crossing a flood warning threshold.
Although stability problems are unlikely, most types of model still require a
numerical solution scheme, in which the river reach is divided into discrete sections. For example, Tang et al. (1999) showed that there can be some numerical
issues with more complex types of flow routing models (oscillations, lack of volume conservation etc.) when used in compound channels, which can be greatly
reduced through choice of an appropriate computational scheme.
Some types of routing model also require wavespeed and attenuation parameters
to be estimated. Typically, wavespeeds increase with increasing discharge until the
river level reaches a value close to bank full, then decrease as water spills onto the
floodplain, but increase again once the floodplain flow exceeds a significant depth.
Both fixed wavespeed, and discharge dependent (variable parameter) values, may
be assumed. Values must either be supplied by the modeller or, in some cases, can
be estimated by the calibration software from typical river cross sections.
As with hydrodynamic models, it may be necessary to represent the inflows
from tributaries in a river reach, and flows into or out of the reach due to abstractions, floodplain flows, and other factors. Lateral flows of this type are easily
included, and can either be modelled directly, or represented as a proportion of
flows in the main river, weighted by catchment area, mean annual rainfall, or some
other indicator of runoff (see Chapter 8).
6.3.4
Data Based methods can also be used for river flow modelling, with the main difference compared to rainfall runoff models (see Section 6.2.4) being that flows are esti-
147
mated from telemetered values for a location further upstream, rather than from
rainfall values (e.g. World Meteorological Organisation 1994). For example, a simple
linear transfer function formulation for flow routing might be of the following form:
Qt = a1Qt-1 + a2Qt-2amQt-m + b1qt-1-T + b2qt-2-T + bnqt-n-T
(6.2)
where Q is the flow at the Forecasting Point, q is the inflow to the reach, ai and bi
are the parameters of the model, and T is an optional fixed time delay. Some formulations also include a random noise component. Artificial Neural Network
techniques may also be used (see Section 7.3 for more information).
Table 6.4 provides some examples of transfer function and artificial neural network flow routing approaches which have been used or trialled in real time flood
forecasting applications.
Table 6.4 Examples of real time flood forecasting applications of data based flow routing models
Model
Full name
Example applications
References
Transfer function
General
Rivers in NE England
Neural network
One interesting feature of the data based approach is that models can also be formulated in terms of river levels, rather than flows. This avoids the need to have well defined,
accurate stage-discharge relationships for the inflow and outflow locations, although
with the possible difficulty that backwater and other influences may cause errors if they
lead to a non-unique relationship between levels and flows at either location.
Chapter 7
Coasts
Coastal flood forecasting models are used to estimate conditions at or near locations
which may be at risk from flooding, such as towns, ports and harbours, and coastal
roads and railways. Forecasts may also be required at structures, such as tidal barriers, to assist with operations to reduce the risk of flooding. Models can range from
simple empirical relationships to complex process-based models combining offshore, nearshore, wave overtopping and flood inundation components. Forecasts
may be based primarily on coastal observations, or also make use of the surge, wind
and wave forecasting outputs provided by national meteorological services and
coastal observatories. This chapter describes some of the issues in selecting an
appropriate modelling approach and then discusses a range of process based and
data based techniques for coastal flood forecasting.
7.1
Coastal flooding can arise from several factors, including high tides, and the
impacts of storms on conditions at the sea surface, generating surge and wave
action. Heat exchange between the ocean and atmosphere can also cause storms to
intensify, as with hurricanes, typhoons and tropical cyclones, for example.
Tidal effects are generated by the gravitational attraction of the sun and the
moon, usually leading to a twice-daily maximum in tidal levels along the coastline,
with the peak values varying depending on the relative alignment of the sun and
the moon. Maximum and minimum tidal ranges occur twice each month when the
earth, sun and moon are aligned so that their gravitational pull combines (high, or
spring, tides) or are approximately at right angles (low, or neap, tides). The influence of the moon on tides is roughly twice that of the sun and perturbations in the
orbits of the sun, the moon and the earth lead to additional impacts at a range of
timescales which are significant up to a period of 18.61 years.
Surge is generated by a combination of low atmospheric pressure and wind friction at the ocean surface; for example from tropical cyclones, hurricanes and
typhoons, or mid-latitude storms. Surges may develop locally, or can propagate
from distant areas, and can lead to an increase or decrease in sea levels, although it
K. Sene, Flood Warning, Forecasting and Emergency Response,
Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2008
149
150
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is increased levels which are of concern for coastal flood forecasting. In the deep
ocean, a 100 N m2 (1 mbar) drop in pressure causes roughly a 0.01 m rise in still
water levels (the so-called inverted barometer effect), although wind related effects
are often considerably more important. Onshore winds can cause water to accumulate at the shoreline and this effect can be amplified by reflections in estuaries
(deltas) and local channelling effects. Surges can develop rapidly over timescales
of a few hours or less, although more typically last between a few hours and 23
days, depending on the scale and duration of the storm. At the shoreline, surge
effects are higher for a shallow sloping continental shelf or sea bed.
Some notable locations for storm surge impacts from tropical cyclones include
the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and the Bay of Bengal, and the eastern coastlines
of Japan and China. For example, surge heights generated in Hurricane Katrina in
August 2005 were reported to have reached 79 m along the Mississippi coastline
(Knabb et al. 2006). Note that storms of this type are called hurricanes in the
Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans, tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean and
typhoons in the Western Pacific. Typical storm sizes are in the range 1001,000 km,
with maximum recorded wind speeds of the order of 300 km hour1.
Waves usually develop as a result of wind action, and can be generated both
locally by wind effects (wind waves), or may propagate from distant storms (swell).
The height and frequency of waves generated by a storm can depend on wind
speeds and on the size and duration of the storm. The eventual wave heights at the
shoreline depend on the distance over which waves develop (often called the fetch),
the slope of the sea-bed, channelling by local topography (bathymetry), and other
local factors, such as reflections at cliffs or reefs. At high latitudes, wave development may also be affected by sea ice. Deep sea (or swell) waves are generally not
as high as locally generated waves, but have longer periods, and can potentially
cause more damage and overtopping when they encounter sea defences and other
structures. Tsunami waves may also cause flooding, although are generated by subsea landslides, volcanic activity and earthquakes (see Chapter 8).
Whilst these effects generally arise from distinct processes, the resulting impacts on
sea water levels are not necessarily independent. For example, tide and surge effects
may interact, particularly in shallow water, affecting both the timing and magnitude of
peak levels at the shoreline. Similarly, heavy rainfall may occur inland during depressions and tropical cyclones, leading to high river flows as well as surge, particularly on
small coastal catchments. The likelihood of high river flows and tidal levels coinciding
can depend on many factors, including bathymetry, the storm intensity, track and duration, and catchment response times (e.g. Environment Agency 2005)
Local factors, such as headlands, breakwaters and estuaries (or deltas) can also
have a strong influence on tides, surge and waves. For example, resonance effects
may amplify the tidal range in estuaries, or cause a second high tide peak on each
cycle. Also, operational problems, such as tidal gates failing to close, or breaches
occurring at sea defences, may lead to flooding whilst gate operations (e.g. at tidal
barriers) can also influence tidal levels.
One example of a location with a wide range of factors is the southwest coastline
of England, which is a peninsula approximately 250 km long, and 100 km across at
151
its widest point. The northeastern coastline lies within the estuary of the River
Severn, which has one of highest tidal ranges in the world, exceeding 1015 m in
spring tides. Wave and surge influences are relatively small along this coastal reach,
although can be important if they coincide with high tides. By contrast, on the
opposite side of the peninsula, the tidal range is considerably lower, whilst surge
remains of a similar magnitude, and maximum wave heights are now higher, particularly
when they originate from the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, and can reach
heights of 5 m or more due to local shoaling and wind driven effects.
Other examples include the wide variations in coastal inundation even over short
distances during the December 2004 Tsunami, depending on coastal topography
and nearshore bathymetry relative to the direction of travel of the wave, and the
differences in the impacts of hurricanes and tropical cyclones in locations like the
Gulf of Mexico, where surge effects dominate, and Hawaii, where wave effects
dominate, and can inundate land to heights of 9 m (e.g. Cheung et al. 2003).
For coastal forecasting applications, the modelling approach which is used
needs to be tailored to the types of flooding mechanisms which are most important
for the locations at which forecasts are required. Some examples of possible locations for Forecasting Points (sometimes called Coastal Cells or Units) include:
In addition to the choice of modelling approach, some other factors to consider for
a real time application (see Chapter 5) include:
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The complexity of the modelling approach used will depend on the precise requirements in each application.
As with many other types of modelling, the design of a coastal flood forecasting
model is often a compromise, and the overall approach may also be constrained by
non-technical factors such as costs and system limitations. For example, the level
of risk (e.g. the number of properties) can be a major factor in deciding on the
complexity of approach. These points are discussed further in Chapter 11 when
considering the economic benefits of flood warning schemes.
Coastal forecasting models can be considered to fall into two main categories:
Process Based models which represent to varying degrees the main physical
processes which determine tidal levels, surge, and wave action (sometimes
called physically based models)
Data Based models which attempt to capture the main features of the response,
but do not represent physical processes directly (e.g. artificial neural networks)
Chapter 6 includes some additional discussion of the relative merits of these approaches
in the context of rainfall runoff modeling. Threshold based methods are also widely
used in coastal flood warning applications and are described in Chapter 3.
In selecting appropriate coastal flood forecasting techniques, it is also helpful to
introduce the following idealisation of the coastal flooding process (Environment
Agency 2004):
Sources
Offshore Zone tides, surges, wave generation and the interaction of waves with
each other
Nearshore Zone water levels and shallow water effects such as shoaling, depth
refraction, interaction with currents and depth induced wave breaking
Pathways
Shoreline Response Zone surf zone/beach response, wave structure interaction, overtopping, overflowing and breaching
Flood Inundation Zone flow of flood water over the flood plain area
The boundaries between these zones are indicative, and will vary between different
forecasting situations.
In many cases the starting point for model development will be an offshore forecasting model for the open ocean of the type operated by many national meteorological
services or coastal observatories. Models of this type usually provide forecasts on a
gridded basis for which, depending on model resolution, the closest nodes may be
some distance from the Forecasting Point(s) of interest. Additional models may then
be required to represent the details of nearshore and shoreline coastal processes, and
these sub-models will often be site specific, requiring a separate set of calibration
factors, and possibly alternate types of model, for each location. The overall set of
models form an integrated coastal flood forecasting system, in which each model
output acts as the input to the next model (or models) in the chain.
With modern computing power, it is feasible to operate systems of this type in
real time for large numbers of coastal Forecasting Points, although inevitably
153
some approximations may be required if model run times are too slow to be of
operational use for flood warning applications. Empirical and data-based techniques offer one approach to improving model run times. The development of
integrated coastal flood forecasting models, combining offshore, nearshore and
shoreline components, is an active area of research with both deterministic (e.g.
Cheung et al. 2003) and probabilistic (e.g. Tozer et al. 2007) methods under
development.
There are also many international initiatives in the area of ocean observation,
modelling and operational response, and Table 7.1 gives several examples, of which
the longest established is the World Meteorological Organisation Tropical Cyclone
Programme (see Box 7.1).
Some active areas for research and development include:
Chapter 5 discusses the general principles of these techniques in more detail, whilst
the following sections include several examples of practical applications in coastal
flood forecasting.
Scope or objective
Example references
Holland (2007)
JCOMM (2007)
WMO (1998)
http://www.godae.org/
http://www.ioc-goos.org/
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Provide reliable forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity, and related
forecasts of strong winds, quantitative forecasts or timely assessments of
heavy rainfall, quantitative forecasts and simulation of storm surges, along
with timely warnings covering all tropical cyclone-prone areas
Provide forecasts of floods associated with tropical cyclones
Promote awareness to warnings and carry out activities at the interface
between the warning systems and the users of warnings, including public
information, education and awareness
Provide the required basic meteorological and hydrological data and advice to
support hazard assessment and risk evaluation of tropical cyclone disasters
Establish national disaster preparedness and prevention measures
Fig. 7.1 Structure of the Tropical Cyclone Programme (Reproduced from Twenty Years
of Progress and Achievement of the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme (19801999),
courtesy of WMO)
(continued)
155
The main activities within the Programme include sharing of best practice
and training in operational meteorology and hydrological techniques, and
initiatives to encourage member organisations to assess risks from tropical
cyclones, and to establish structural and non-structural measures to reduce
property damage and loss of life to a minimum. The Programme also facilitates the transfer of technology between member states, including satellite
reception, weather radar, telecommunication, data processing and monitoring equipment, and atmospheric, surge and hydrological models.
Fig. 7.2 Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres within the WMO Tropical Cyclone
Programme (Reproduced courtesy of WMO)
(continued)
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7.2
7.2.1
Process-Based Models
Astronomical Tide Prediction
Of the various factors which influence coastal flooding, astronomical tide levels are
in principle the easiest to estimate, although in practice estimates are subject to
many uncertainties. Gravitational forces from the sun and moon produce a twicedaily tidal cycle, with the highest and lowest values (spring and neap tides) occurring twice each (synodic) month linked to the orbit of the moon around the earth,
with annual extremes linked to the orbit of the earth around the sun. Superimposed
on this pattern are other effects arising from variations in the relative orbits of the
sun, the moon and the earth. The longest period of motion which is usually considered is an 18.61 year cycle arising from variations in the moons orbit.
Tide prediction methods use wave theory in which the twice-daily cycle is combined
with other harmonics arising from the perturbations in the orbits of the sun, moon and
earth. More than 3050 harmonics can be used, although a point is reached at which the
incremental improvements in accuracy are negated by other influences. For example, the
tidal response can be modified in estuaries, where the reflected component and depth
effects may affect the timing and amplitude of the response considerably, depending on
the shape, size and bed profile of the estuary, in some cases leading to a tidal bore. More
generally, factors which can affect the response (Hicks 2006) include:
The restrictive depths of the oceans not allowing the generated tidal wave to be
in equilibrium with the rotation of the earth
Irregular ocean depths over which the waves must travel
Reflections and interactions of the waves from irregularly shaped continents
Bottom friction
Turbulence
Viscosity of the water
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7.2.2
Surge Forecasting
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Table 7.2 Examples of operational surge, tide and wave forecasting systems
Country
Operator
Reference
Australia
Hong Kong
The Netherlands
United Kingdom
USA
Flather (2000)
Chassignet et al. (2006)
Jelesnianski et al. (1992),
Berg et al. (2007)
159
Fig. 7.3 Example of an STFS simulation of progression of a storm surge around the coast
of the UK (National Tidal and Sea Level Facility (NTSLF), Proudman Oceanographic
Laboratory, http://www.pol.ac.uk/ntslf)
the ocean boundary, and a version with the atmospheric forcing included.
The surge is then estimated from the difference between the outputs from
these two model runs. Total water levels at specific monitoring sites (e.g. tide
gauges) are then estimated by adding the surge to the site-specific estimate of
tidal levels based on harmonic analysis (e.g. Fig. 7.4).
Finer mesh models have also been developed for some areas; for example,
to provide better resolution of surge-tide interactions in the strongly tidally
influenced Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary in the southwest of England.
Data assimilation techniques are also being evaluated, including 3D-Var and
Optimal Interpolation methods. A prototype 24 member ensemble surge product is also being developed, based on multiple CS3X model runs using ensemble estimates for atmospheric pressure and wind speed and direction from the
Met Office NAE model. In collaboration with the Environment Agency, which
is responsible for issuing coastal flood warnings in England and Wales, a
demonstration project is providing probabilistic coastal forecasts to a coastal
(continued)
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Fig. 7.4 Surge model residuals and astronomical tidal elevation predictions for Sheerness
for a 2.53 m North Sea surge event on 9 November 2007 (National Tidal and Sea Level
Facility (NTSLF), Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, http://www.pol.ac.uk/ntslf)
161
Various solution schemes can be used, including finite difference, finite element,
and finite volume methods. Some approaches support use of irregular grids or curvilinear grids, in addition to regular grids. Irregular grids typically require more
complex solution schemes, but have the advantage that the resolution and shape of
the grid can be tailored to situations where more detail is required (e.g. in bays and
estuaries and around islands and headlands).
Models of this type aim to solve approximations to the three dimensional mass,
momentum and energy conservation equations for fluid motion. Forecasting may
be in terms of total water levels (combing surge and tidal influences), or the surge
residual may be calculated separately and then added onto the results from harmonic analysis at tide gauges (e.g. Horsburgh and Wilson 2007). Some processes
which can be represented include:
In practice, some simplifications must usually be made, since the details of processes may not be fully understood, and model run times would not be practicable
for a real time forecasting application. Some general types of approximation can
include:
Temperature and density effects may be approximated also. Another key approximation is often to reduce the number of dimensions of the model, and Table 7.3 illustrates some possible options if using Cartesian coordinates.
Table 7.3 Examples of applications of simplified hydrodynamic models
Form of model
One-dimensional
(1D)
Yes
No
No
Two-dimensional Yes
vertical (2DV)
Two-dimensional Yes
horizontal
(2-DH)
Three-dimensional Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
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163
Fig. 7.5 Example of SLOSH surge height output (National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration/National Weather Service, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)
(continued)
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Fig. 7.6 Illustration of probabilistic hurricane storm surge product (experimental version)
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service, http://
www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/)
(continued)
165
7.2.3
Wave Forecasting
Surge forecasting models often include a wave modelling component, and the surge
and wave models may be coupled to allow the interactions between tidal currents
and waves to be represented.
Waves can occur at many different scales and frequencies, and can be affected
by changes in water depth, wind speed and direction, interactions with other waves,
and other factors, such as coastal features and structures. The main processes which
might be considered are wave generation and wave transformation and Table 7.4
briefly describes these factors (e.g. World Meteorological Organisation 1998;
Environment Agency 2004; Holthuijsen 2007).
The two main approaches to wave modelling are:
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Table 7.4 Summary of some key wave generation and transformation processes
Category
Sub-process
Description
Wave generation
Seismic (geotechnical)
Wave transformation Breaking (offshore)
Breaking (onshore)
Diffraction
Refraction
Reflection
Set-up
Shoaling
interactions) and dissipation (e.g. from wave breaking), including representation of the non-linear transfer of energy between frequencies (e.g. from wavewave interactions) and from nearshore effects (e.g. currents, water depth,
bottom friction). Key characteristics such as significant wave height, mean
wave period and mean wave direction can be derived by integration. Both
two-dimensional (excluding direction) and three-dimensional representations
can be used, and grid based (e.g. finite difference) or ray tracing solution
schemes.
Phase Resolving techniques in which deterministic hydrodynamic models are
used to model the motion of individual waves, or waves within a given spectral
band (direction and frequency), as they propagate. A spectrum of waves can be
considered by running multiple realisations of inputs through the model. Any or
all of the processes listed in Table 7.4 may be represented, although in some
cases may need to be approximated by empirical relationships.
167
Phase averaging techniques are widely used in operational wave and surge forecasting models. A series of nested models may be used, at global, regional and
local scales, with each model providing the boundary conditions to the next; for
example, swell waves generated in the global model might be propagated into the
regional model. Due to the smaller spatial extent, local models typically have a
higher grid resolution, and it may also be possible to increase the run frequency
and the number of processes represented whilst retaining a satisfactory run time
for flood warning applications. Some well known examples of the phase averaging
approach which are used by national meteorological and coastal services include
the WAM family of models (Wave Model; Komen et al. 1994) and the
WAVEWATCH III (Tolman 1999) and SWAN models (Simulating Waves
Nearshore; Holthuijsen 2007). Many other types of model are also available
through research projects or commercially.
Phase resolving techniques provide more detailed information on changes in
wave height and direction, particularly in areas of complex bathymetry or interactions
with coastal structures. However, they are more computationally intensive and are
generally not suitable for modelling large regions, or for direct use in real time
modelling, unless wave directions and frequencies fall within a narrow band (as on
some parts of the western coast of the USA, for example). Kirby et al. (2005) and
Shi et al. (2001) describe examples of this approach.
7.2.4
Shoreline Processes
Shoreline models consider the processes of wave run up on a beach and overtopping
of defences and natural features (e.g. dunes). Additional factors, such as breaches,
may also occur, although these are discussed in Chapter 8.
Overtopping (or splash-over) can be expressed in terms of the mean overtopping
discharge or peak volumes. Peak volumes apply to the maximum likely value in a
single wave, whilst discharge values may be calculated over a given period (e.g.
hourly) or number of waves (e.g. 1,000 waves). Volumes are important when considering
the risk from a single wave (e.g. the loading on a building), whilst discharge values
can be used to estimate the likely depth and extent of inundation. Models are usually calibrated using estimates of overtopping rates from video images, photographs
and site surveys.
The rate or volume of overtopping depends on the wave propagation process at
the shoreline and sea defences, and is highly sensitive to both of these factors. For
off-line design applications, in addition to empirical approaches and laboratory
testing, a phase resolving approach is sometimes used (see previous section), in
which the motion of waves is modelled using a 1D, 2D or 3D hydrodynamic model
describing the conservation of mass and momentum. Atmospheric and free surface
influences may also be included and non-linear shallow water (depth averaging)
approximations may also be made.
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Models of this type operate by propagating waves of a given height, period and
shape (or significant wave height, frequency and spectral shape) to generate a time
series of wave elevations at the seaward boundary of the defence, from which overtopping discharges and volumes can be estimated (Environment Agency 2004). The
input data requirements can include information on beach profiles, the geometry
and condition of sea defences (such as those illustrated in Fig. 7.7), and of structures in the shoreline region (e.g. breakwaters, groynes). Some examples of models
of this type are described by Hubbard and Dodd (2002) and Causon et al. (2000).
There are of course many potential uncertainties in this type of approach,
particularly for the interactions between waves and coastal structures, and
physical model tests may be required to estimate the required calibration factors.
Depth averaged models tend to run faster, so perhaps have the greatest potential
for real time use, but have limitations when vertical fluid motions are important
(e.g. for steep or vertical defences). Ensemble and probabilistic approaches
provide one possible route to assessing the uncertainty in model outputs, whilst
data based techniques of the type described in the next section provide an alternative approach.
More generally, in wave overtopping research, the focus is to extend the range
of methods to more complex situations, such as steeper sea walls, different types of
armouring on structures, and a wider choice of structure geometries, as well as
developing artificial neural network and process-based approaches to estimation of
overtopping, and the risk of defence breaches.
169
In addition to the uncertainties in the approach, model run times are another
factor which to date has prevented real time applications for operational coastal
forecasting. However, models of this type have been used off-line to calibrate simpler data-based methods for operational use, as described in the next section.
7.3
Data-Based Methods
Data-Based methods aim to capture the main features of the coastal response, but
do not attempt to model physical processes directly. Methods include transfer functions, artificial neural networks, and other artificial intelligence techniques, and are
widely used in other fields, including river flow forecasting (see Chapter 6), industry,
finance and transport. Due to their fast run times, and ability to represent non-linear
processes, models of this type are also candidates for use as emulators for more
complex models which are too time consuming to run in real time, particularly for
ensemble forecasting, as described in Chapter 5.
In coastal forecasting applications, artificial neural networks are perhaps the
most widely used approach, although some other techniques which have been
applied include:
Although the term data-based is usually used to describe artificial intelligence and
related techniques, it is also convenient to discuss several simpler empirical or analytical techniques in this section, including transformation matrices and wave overtopping formulae.
7.3.1
Artificial Neural Networks were originally devised as a tool for helping to understand the human brain, but have since developed into a powerful technique for
solving complex non-linear multivariate problems.
A network is usually constructed from individual neurons, whose inputs are
adjusted by weighting factors, and are transformed by a function (a so-called activation or transfer function) into the output. Networks are often constructed in the
170
7 Coasts
Input 1
We
igh
t1
Input 2 Weig
ht 2
ht 3
Input 3 Weig t 4
igh
We
Input 4
Input
Layer
Hidden
Layer(s)
Function
Output
Output
Layer
form of an input layer, an output layer, and one or more hidden layers which join
the outputs to the inputs, as shown by the example in Fig. 7.8.
Networks can adapt, or be trained, by adding or removing neurons, and changing
the strength of the interactions between neurons (in this case, via the weighting factors). Training is performed with reference to an assessment (or optimisation) function,
often chosen to be the mean square error between input and output values.
Apart from the choice of assessment function, some distinguishing features
between different networks can include the number of neurons and layers, and
the choice of activation functions and training techniques. Given the potentially
large number of configuration options, number of neurons, weighting factors,
activation functions and other variables, much research has been performed on
training techniques, including development of Bayesian methods, genetic algorithms, and stochastic approaches, such as simulated annealing. A compromise
is also needed between having too complex a network (operating slowly, and
over-parameterised), and over simplifying the network (potentially losing useful information). Artificial neural networks have been developed and tested for
a wide range of coastal forecasting and related applications and Table 7.5 shows
a few examples.
In coastal forecasting applications, artificial neural networks can be trained
using a range of inputs (depending on the application), including information on
sea defence geometry and condition, historic databases of wave overtopping rates,
real time measurements of water levels, wind speeds, wind directions, river levels,
171
Table 7.5 Examples of research and other applications of artificial neural networks to coastal
flood forecasting and related problems
Type
Location
Reference
Western Australia
Gulf of Mexico, USA
Wave forecasting
Estuary forecasting
Portugal
Texas, USA
Long Island, NY, USA
United Kingdom
significant wave heights and periods, and barometric pressure, and forecasts of
wind speeds, wind directions and atmospheric pressure from Numerical Weather
Prediction models. Models are typically optimised for one or more forecast lead
times, and evaluated against a range of performance statistics, including statistical
and categorical measures, as described in Chapter 5.
7.3.2
Other Techniques
172
7 Coasts
cell), the model is run using a range of scenarios for the offshore values of the
directional wave spectra (mean wave direction, wave height, and wave period), and
wind field (speed and direction). Site specific transformation coefficients are
derived for each location.
In real time operation, the resulting matrices are used to transform the offshore
wave and wind forecasts from the UKs Storm Tide Forecasting Service (see Box
7.2) to the shoreline. As with all modelling systems, the forecast performance needs
to be monitored regularly, and after each major event, and the coefficients updated
if there are reductions in performance, or changes to the physical characteristics at
each Forecasting Point (e.g. erosion following a coastal flood event).
This type of approach has also been used for forecasting the coastal impacts
of tropical cyclones and hurricanes. For example, Holland (2007) and others
describe the use of nomograms for estimating the likely surge impacts of tropical cyclones based on hydrodynamic model simulations for a range of idealised
coastal basins and hypothetical cyclone conditions. The calculations exclude
small islands and assume a regular unbroken mildly curved coastline with no
inland transfer of water (e.g. steeply rising terrain). Tropical cyclones are
assumed to travel in straight lines at a constant angle of attack to the coast and
with constant parameters (e.g. speed). Surge estimates are derived for a range
of possible tracks and parameters, and basin slopes and coastal depths.
Nomograms based on these simulations provide estimates of surge for a range
of possible input parameters, such as radius of maximum winds and ambient
pressure drop. Correction factors may be included for factors such as the angle
of attack to the coast, and shoaling effects.
Another technique which is described is to prepare an atlas of pre-computed
surges based on the historical characteristics of tropical cyclones which have
affected a coastal basin. Cyclones are categorised by preferred track directions,
intensities, and sizes, perhaps assuming that the speed, pressure and size remain
constant. Values are computed for a range of likely tracks, pressures, sizes and
speeds. This approach can be taken a step further by calculating the Maximum
Envelopes of Water (MEOW) to give an indication of the likely worst-case surge
for a given set of cyclone profiles and conditions. Computer based versions can
provide an interactive tool which, near the time of landfall, can be used to select the
most likely range of scenarios, with the MEOW distribution constructed from a
stored set of values computed earlier. This method is used in the USA for example,
as a complement to other more sophisticated approaches (see Box 7.3).
Restrictions on model run times, and uncertainties in model formulation, have
also led to simpler regression and other approaches being adopted for estimating
wave overtopping. For example, some methods provide an estimate of likely maximum wave heights at the toe of a structure based on functions incorporating key
descriptors for the characteristics of the structure, and offshore parameters such as
mean significant wave height and period, together with information on the sea bed
slope and the water depth. The information required on structures can include crest
height, geometry for the seaward side, surface roughness etc., and model parameters may be derived from physical model tests or hydrodynamic modelling.
173
Although these methods were usually developed for design applications (e.g.
to estimate optimum values of sea defence crest levels, slope angle, required
roughness), some of these approaches can also be used operationally to estimate
wave overtopping volumes and discharges at a sea defence, based on offshore or
nearshore forecasts of key wave parameters. For example, Tozer et al. (2007)
describe an application for a rail operator in which empirical overtopping formulae are combined with a wave transformation model and offshore forecasts to
provide forecasts to coastal rail lines with up to a 36 hour lead time, together with
a prototype flood warning service for a coastal development. In the latter case,
four hazard levels were proposed as follows:
The categories correspond to different wave overtopping rates in the range 0.03 l
per second per m of sea wall, to more than 1.0 l per second per m.
Chapter 8
Selected Applications
Previous chapters have described the main techniques which are used in river and
coastal flood forecasting, whilst this chapter presents a selection of forecasting
applications. These include integrated catchment forecasting models, and forecasting techniques for flash floods, snowmelt, ice jams, dams and reservoirs, control
structures, urban drainage flooding, and geotechnical risks, such as Tsunami, debris
flows, and dam break. The chapter also includes several examples in fields which
are closely related to flood forecasting, such as the real time control and optimisation of reservoir and urban drainage systems. Some themes which run throughout
the chapter are the use of ensemble and probabilistic techniques to provide information
on risk and uncertainty, and the use of process-based, conceptual and data-based
modelling approaches.
8.1
8.1.1
Real time integrated catchment models seek to model whole catchments using a
range of rainfall runoff and river flow routing components. Sub-models for additional
features may also be included as required, such as dams, control structures, and flood
defence systems. Models may be used for a range of applications, including:
175
176
8 Selected Applications
The key processes which influence river flows and levels in the river network
The forecasting requirements for floods, water resources, and other
applications
Whether the model should be optimised for the full flow range, or only parts of
the flow regime (e.g. flood flows)
Opportunities for simplifying the model to improve run times and stability
177
The original version of the model included 55 lumped conceptual rainfall runoff
models, operating from raingauge and weather radar data, and rainfall forecasts,
feeding over 400 km of hydrodynamic network, with almost 500 structures including flood storage reservoirs, siphons, pumps and complex gates, bridges, weirs
and culverts, with operations at automatic structures represented by logical rules.
River levels and flows were simulated in real time at 52 Forecasting Points in the
catchment.
8.1.2
Modelling Approach
When developing an integrated catchment model, some options for model development include:
Develop an integrated model specifically for the application of interest, with the
minimum complexity needed to meet the requirement
Develop a best possible model for the catchment, from which other more specialised models can be derived as required
The latter approach is adopted by the Environment Agency for some catchments
in the UK, for example (Huband and Sene 2005), with the best possible model
called a Parent Model. In this approach, an overall model is constructed which
can either be used unchanged for a range of applications, or from which simplified/optimised models can be developed for other applications (such as flood
forecasting), or for studies of specific parts of the catchment. The advantage of
the Parent Model approach is that, at any one time, there is only one best
attempt model for the catchment, which can form the basis for all Child Models
used for specific applications. This simplifies the process of maintaining and
improving the model, and makes it easier to document and audit the history of
model development. However, the initial development time and costs can be
higher than in the more classical approach of developing a range of models for
different applications, although overall costs may be lower in the long term. The
usual issues of data availability and type of forecasting system described in
Chapter 5 also need to be considered.
Some possibilities for model configuration include the following options:
Table 8.1 presents some of the strengths and limitations of these approaches. The
choice of approach will depend on the particular modelling and forecasting issues
for each catchment.
178
8 Selected Applications
Table 8.1 Some strengths and limitations of various model configuration options for hydrodynamic and flow routing models (Huband and Sene 2005)
Method
Strengths
Limitations
Single model
Multiple models
Nested models
8.1.3
Ungauged Inflows
Tributary inflows
Surface runoff along a river reach
Gravity fed abstractions or discharges
Pumped inflows or outflows
Spillage or seepage at river banks or flood defences
Groundwater inflows or recharge
179
Fig. 8.1 Illustration of ungauged and lateral flow modelling issues (circles indicate telemetered
river gauges) based on a catchment in NE England (not to scale)
The need to represent these contributions will depend on the likely magnitude and
timing of inflows or losses compared to flows in the main river channel. Also,
although, in general, it is desirable to develop a model which performs well
throughout the flow range, in practice the emphasis of development may be on the
areas of particular interest (e.g. high flows, for flood forecasting, or low flows, for
drought forecasting), and the relative importance of the inflow components will
vary between applications.
Figure 8.1 shows an example of the upper reaches of a catchment in which there
are five sub-catchments with telemetry sites (shown shaded), one ungauged subcatchment (unit A), and five lateral inflow areas (units BF). Ideally, the contributions from these areas require modelling individually, although one simplifying
option might be to model various combinations of units BF, whilst being careful
not to introduce unwanted transient and other effects from introducing unrealistically high flows at some locations along the river network.
Note that, even for the gauged catchments, there may be areas downstream of
instruments which also need to be modelled. Some reasons for not installing river
gauges at confluences can include the requirement to position the gauge in a location upstream of any backwater influences from the main river, and a range of other
factors, such as lack of a suitable site or telemetry connections. If backwater effects
are a factor then, when a hydrodynamic approach is being used, one option is to
extend the hydrodynamic component of the model into the tributaries affected.
Table 8.2 shows some typical approaches to modelling ungauged and lateral
inflow components.
For tributary inflows, if scaling or correlation techniques are used, the main criteria which determine flood flows are often the catchment area and some measure
of rainfall (for example, mean annual rainfall), although many other factors might
180
8 Selected Applications
Table 8.2 Some possible approaches to modelling ungauged and lateral inflow and outflow
components
Model component
also need to be considered, including soil type, mean slope, topography etc.
However, when used operationally, this approach does not allow the influence of
local variations in catchment rainfall to be considered and, if the model is to include
this effect, then normally a rainfall runoff model will be required.
If there are no historical records for the sub-catchment (e.g. from an existing
river gauge without telemetry), then some options for developing a rainfall runoff
model include transferring model parameters from a similar nearby catchment, or
attempting to derive a pseudo inflow record by taking the difference between
measurements upstream and downstream of the location(s) at which flows enter
the main stream, allowing for lag times, attenuation, rating curve errors etc. Both
approaches have their disadvantages and, in practice an iterative, trial and error is
often used to obtain the best calibration of rainfall runoff and flow routing models
in combination.
An integrated catchment model can also include a number of sub-models for
other features which can influence river flows, including dams, reservoirs and control structures, and some of these components are described in later sections.
8.2
181
Flash floods can be damaging due to the short time in which they develop, and the
high depths and velocities which may be reached. Flows may also contain significant quantities of debris and sediment, potentially causing blockages and further
raising river levels at structures such as bridges, weirs and river control structures.
Chapter 10 discusses some of the issues that can arise in responding to this type of
event, and provides an example for a flash flood which occurred in the UK in 2004,
whilst Chapter 3 discusses a range of rainfall threshold based approaches for early
warning of events such as flash floods.
The definition of a flash flood varies between countries, with a common theme
being that flooding of properties and infrastructure may occur in locations where
there is no recent flooding history, and develop sufficiently rapidly that normal flood
warning dissemination and emergency response procedures do not have time to operate effectively. Flash flooding is therefore often defined in relation to the locations at
risk and local response procedures, as in the following example (ACTIF 2004):
A flash flood can be defined as a flood that threatens damage at a critical
location in the catchment, where the time for the development of the flood from
the upstream catchment is less than the time needed to activate warning, flood
defence or mitigation measures downstream of the critical location. Thus with
current technology even when the event is forecast, the achievable lead-time is
not sufficient to implement preventative measures (e.g. evacuation, erecting of
flood barriers).
Some common features which appear in many definitions of flash floods include
the following items (e.g. World Meteorological Organisation 1982; Meon 2006)
although, in many cases, only some of these factors may apply:
If a particular catchment response time is specified, then the values for events classified as flash floods vary widely between countries and can range from a few minutes
to a few hours (typically 6 hours e.g. World Meteorological Organisation 1982), with
catchment areas typically of at most a few hundred square kilometres, although sometimes much less than this. Various indicators such as catchment area, topography,
mean slope, soil type, response times and flood risk may also be used to identify flash
flood prone catchments. Fast response events from other sources, such as ice jams
(Section 8.3), urban drainage systems (Section 8.5) and dam breaks, landslides, and
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (Section 8.6), are sometimes also classified as types of
flash flood.
The main difficulty with forecasting for flash floods is the speed at which they
develop, compared to other types of flood event, and the uncertainty about which
182
8 Selected Applications
particular locations will be affected in a region. The rarity of events may also mean
that there has been no need in the past for river level monitoring in the catchment
to confirm that an event is developing (i.e. the catchment is ungauged). These
factors also have implications for issuing flood warnings, and for providing an
effective response, and this topic is discussed in Chapter 10.
Some techniques used for flash flood forecasting include:
Rainfall Thresholds using information on observed or forecast rainfall, and possibly current catchment conditions (see Chapter 3)
Meteorological Indicators of flash flood generation potential from observations,
historical databases, or Numerical Weather Prediction models (see Chapter 3)
River Level Thresholds in which warnings are issued using decision criteria
based on increasing river levels or flows (see Chapter 3)
Rainfall Runoff Models using observed rainfall and, possibly, forecast rainfall as
inputs
183
ing the crossing of thresholds on the rising limb of the hydrograph, rather than on
accurate prediction throughout the event. Rainfall forecasts may be also used to
extend lead times, although the accuracy of forecasts decreases with increasing lead
time. Real time updating (data assimilation) is also usually desirable to help to
account for differences between observed and forecast flows, provided that the data
quality is sufficient. Modelling (and monitoring) may also be complicated by the
risks of debris and sediment, and in some cases that the river may be dry for part of
the year (e.g. on wadis). In urban areas, a range of extra factors may also need to
be considered, such as the capacity of the drainage system, blockage risks, and the
performance of flood storage and detention areas (see Section 8.5).
For ungauged catchments, there is the additional uncertainty arising from having
no river flow data for calibration, and views differ on whether warnings should be
issued on the basis of model forecast outputs alone in flash flood situations. Much
will depend on confidence in the model itself, and whether verification studies
show that the model outputs are a reliable predictor of flooding. Also, considerable
advances are being made in developing techniques for rainfall runoff modelling in
ungauged catchments, as described in Chapter 6.
In addition to these various techniques, the warning time available can sometimes be increased by reducing the various time delays in the overall flood warning
process (see Chapter 5). Some possibilities include making decision making procedures more efficient, adopting faster approaches to warning dissemination, and
improving the speed of operation of telemetry and forecasting model systems.
Automated linkages between telemetry observations or flood forecasting model
outputs might also be implemented to reduce the time required to issue warnings,
such as automated signs or barriers on roads (although with the potential disadvantages
discussed in Chapter 4). Probabilistic and ensemble techniques (see Chapters 1, 5
and 10) also have the potential to improve operational decision making during the
development of flash flood events, and to assist with developing a more risk-based
approach to issuing flash flood warnings.
Given the destructive nature of some flash floods, and recent developments in
modelling and monitoring techniques, the issue of flash flooding is an active research
area, and Table 8.3 summarises some major research programmes on this topic.
Table 8.3 Some international research and collaboration programmes in flash flood forecasting
Project
WMO flash flood guidance system
Central America Flash Flood
Guidance (CAFFG) system
Location
Reference
World Meteorological
Organisation (2007)
Georgakakos (2005)
Sperfslage et al. (2005)
Erikkson (2006)
184
8 Selected Applications
Fig. 8.2 Sample graphical system output for Nicaragua from the CAFFG System showing
Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) and Flash Flood Threat (FFT) (reproduced from the WMO
Prospectus for Implementation of a Flash Flood Guidance System, courtesy of WMO)
185
Box 8.1 provides more information on the first two of these initiatives. Flash
flooding is also a major driver for research into detection techniques, including the
following methods which are discussed in Chapter 2:
Satellite based techniques analysis of cloud type, extent and rainfall generating
potential, and of catchment conditions (snow cover, soil moisture etc.)
Weather radar improved signal processing algorithms and hardware, particularly for automated detection of heavy rainfall in mountainous areas
Raingauges low cost devices allowing greater network densities, and a greater
range of options for use in mountainous areas
8.3
8.3.1
186
8 Selected Applications
Flooding can arise directly from the melting of fallen snow from rainfall or
rising temperatures, or from radiation effects, or enhanced runoff from frozen
snow, or some combination of these mechanisms. Snowmelt events may also raise
river levels so that the capacity to absorb even moderate rainfall events is reduced.
Radiation melt often dominates in high latitude and high mountain areas, whereas
warm, moist turbulent airflows are an important factor in mid latitude, lower lying
regions.
Snowmelt forecasting models can range from simple empirical approaches relating snowmelt to temperature, through to models which attempt to represent both the
mass and energy balances of the snowpack and melted snow. Real time data inputs
(see Chapter 2) can include measurements of meteorological and hydrological conditions, satellite observations of snow cover, ground based measurements (e.g.
ablation stakes, snow pillows), and forecasts for air temperature, humidity, wind
speed, cloud cover, and rainfall.
Some simple empirical approaches include linear or non-linear regressions
between flow volumes and various indicators for factors which can influence the
rate of snowmelt, such as air temperature and rainfall, the water equivalent depth
of accumulated snow, soil moisture, and the depth of frozen soil (e.g. World
Meteorological Organisation 1994). Another commonly used approach is the temperature index or degree-day method in which the rate of snowmelt is represented
as a function of the difference between mean daily air temperature and a threshold
value above which snowmelt is considered to occur (often zero centigrade).
The function is usually a simple constant factor and is site specific, and different
values may be required for open and forest areas. The term degree-day refers
to an integrated value over a day, although other periods, such as hourly or
monthly values, can also be used. Usually the only real time input required is for
air temperature, although more advanced forms may also include wind speed and
radiation inputs, and may allow for elevation influences, and cloudy and sunny
conditions. However, known shortcomings are that the accuracy decreases as the
time interval chosen is reduced, and that it is difficult to account for spatial variability in snowmelt due, for example, to topographic influences (Hock 2003).
Conceptual models are also used in which the snow store is separated into snow
and melt components, and a simple water balance is used to keep account of each
component, with empirical or simple physically based equations to relate snowmelt
rates to air temperature. Typically, these models use air temperature relative to a
threshold (e.g. zero centigrade) to help to decide whether to partition precipitation
into rainfall or snow, and when to trigger the snowmelt component of the overall
model. Effects such as the proportion of snow cover in the catchment (areal depletion curves), windspeed, and the influences from altitude and aspect (the direction
in which major hill slopes face) may also be included. One or more stores may be
used to represent the current status of melted snow (e.g. stored within the snowpack, lost as runoff), and the catchment divided into elevation zones to better
account for differences in temperature with elevation. Other advances include the
use of data assimilation through state updating based on point measurements by
snow pillow or snow cores (e.g. Bell et al. 2000).
187
Forecasting models have also been developed using process-based rainfall runoff models of the type described in Chapter 6 (e.g. Koren et al. 1999; Dunn and
Colohan 1999). Factors such as elevation and aspect can be included directly, and
the models can also account for other variations across a catchment, such as in wind
speed, the accumulation of snow due to wind effects (e.g. snow drifts) and variations in snow density. The most detailed models use a full set of mass and energy
balance equations to describe snowmelt, including real time observations of net
radiation, air temperature, wind speed and humidity (e.g. World Meteorological
Organisation 1994). Terms which are included in the energy balance can include
energy storage in the snow layer, net radiation, latent heat fluxes, the heat flux to
the ground or soil, and advection losses to wind flow over the snowpack, whilst the
water balance may allow for two or more layers to represent snow in various stages
of melting or freezing.
Figure 8.3 illustrates some terms in the overall energy and mass balances for a
melting snow layer; note that the directions shown for energy and water fluxes are
indicative, and in some cases can be in the opposite direction.
The net radiation depends on several factors including time of day, season, forest
cover, and snow surface conditions (which are typically parameterised via albedo
and emissivity). Other less significant factors may also contribute to the energy
balance, such as heat input from rainfall.
ENERGY BALANCE
WATER BALANCE
Precipitation
Net
Radiation
Sensible
Heat
Latent
Heat
Stored
Energy
Evaporation
Wind
Snow Layer
Recharge
Ground
Heat Flux
Runoff
Melting
Surface Layer
Fig. 8.3 Some key terms in the energy and water balance for a melting snow layer
188
8 Selected Applications
Historically, one barrier to application of this type of model has been the availability of real time data on both meteorological conditions and snow depth and
cover. However, improvements in the accuracy and resolution of Numerical
Weather Prediction models, and satellite based observation techniques, have helped
to make the application of this type of model more practicable.
Ensemble techniques can also be used; for example, the Extended Streamflow
Prediction System (ESP) used by the National Weather Service River Forecast
Centres in the United States since the 1970s (see Chapter 5). The method uses an
ensemble technique to create probabilistic river stage forecasts for periods of up to
a few months ahead. The main use is to provide forecasts for the Spring snowmelt,
by using the state variables of models at the time of forecast and up to 40 years of
historical time series data for model inputs (precipitation, temperature, potential
evaporation). The outputs from the model include probabilistic forecasts for peak
flows and volumes at multiple forecast points. Kuchment and Gelfan (2005) describe
a similar technique which has been developed for the Sosna River Basin in Russia,
and incorporates a process based rainfall runoff model which represents snow accumulation and snowmelt, soil freezing, soil moisture, and runoff generation. Long
term deterministic and stochastic (Monte Carlo) estimates for daily air temperature
and precipitation are used as input to the model. Shorter range probabilistic flood
forecasting techniques are also under development and are described in Chapter 5.
Various international comparisons have also been performed of snowmelt models;
for example, in the first phase of the Snow Model Intercomparison Experiment
Project (SNOWMIP), more than 20 models from ten countries were compared,
with case study sites in the USA, Canada, France and Switzerland, and the project
has continued into a second phase (SNOWMIP2; Rutter and Essery 2006).
8.3.2
River ice can lead to an increased risk of flooding through mechanisms which
include:
Ice formation impeding flows in river channels and at bridges and other structures, reducing conveyance capacity, possibly for periods of weeks or months
Ice jam site specific blockages following the break up of ice cover further
upstream, particularly at bridges and flow control structures, causing a local shorter
term risk of flooding, and with the potential for significant structural damage
Ice break up flood waves generated by the sudden release of water following
melting or release of an ice jam, layer or dam
Ice formation tends to occur over periods of hours or days whilst ice jams can
develop rapidly, causing backwater influences and significant flooding in periods
of as little as an hour or less (and, for that reason, are sometimes called flash
floods). Ice jams may also act as an additional location for ice formation as floating
ice accumulates and ice forms at the point of constriction.
189
The presence of ice may also cause uncertainties in the inputs to (and hence
outputs from) flood forecasting models, by affecting the operation of river instrumentation and control structures, and causing a change in the stage-discharge
relationship (or rating curves) used to convert levels to flows at gauging stations.
River levels may also rise and fall as ice forms and breaks up, sometimes rapidly in
the case of ice jam movement.
Some techniques for monitoring the formation and break up of ice are described
briefly in Chapter 2. Two main categories of ice can be identified; thermally grown
(or sheet) ice and frazil ice. Thermally grown ice tends to occur in slow moving or
still water from temperature influences whilst frazil ice forms in moving water, and
is a common type of ice formation in rivers. Some particular locations where frazil
ice occurs include turbulent regions such as at river confluences, sudden reductions
in river slope, and downstream of rapids or in turbulent flow related to structures.
Techniques for estimating ice formation can range from simple correlation approaches
to process-based techniques of the type first developed for ocean ice formation (e.g.
World Meteorological Organisation 1994; Snorrason et al. 2000; Kubat et al. 2005).
Ice melt and break up can occur from thermal effects such as increases in water
or air temperature, and direct radiation from sunlight, or from mechanical influences
from the hydraulic loading of river flows, or impacts from floating ice, particularly
during flood flows. For thermal melt from water temperatures, river ice tends to melt
at the upstream edge of the ice cover, and the pattern of break up along a river reach
depends on the mean river slope, and changes in slope along the reach.
Procedures for forecasting ice formation and break up are used in several countries
where ice-related flooding is a problem, although are subject to many uncertainties.
For estimating the rate of formation of ice, one simple approach is to use a temperature index approach similar to that described earlier for snowmelt modelling (e.g.
World Meteorological Organisation 1994). The rate of ice formation is assumed to be
a function of a degree-day total (cumulative temperature over threshold measure)
calculated since the start of freezing. Similar techniques can also be used for estimating ice melt, in which melt is assumed to be proportional to a function of the river
discharge and the air temperature above a threshold value (typically zero degrees).
The time required to melt a given reach of ice can then be estimated from the melt
rate and the volume of ice estimated from the average ice thickness and width.
Hydraulic models of the types described in Chapter 6 also provide a way to model
potential locations for ice formation, and the impact of ice jams, and both steady
state and unsteady models might potentially be used (e.g. Blackburn and Hicks
2003). Some formulations also include dam break type models, and sub-models for
ice formation and ice melt. Operationally, the challenge in using these models is to
obtain or estimate up to date values for river ice formation, transport and break up
for input to the models; also, the nature of ice jams and break up can be site specific,
making it difficult to develop general approaches (e.g. White 2003; Hom et al.
2004). However, the timescale required for observations will depend on the nature
of the risk so that occasional (e.g. daily) observations may be sufficient in some
cases, for example using visual, CCTV, webcam or video-camera based observations. For example, in Alaska, an extensive programme of aerial observations, called
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8 Selected Applications
River Watch, operates when the flood risk from ice is high, making use of voluntary
contributions by air taxi operators, private pilots, and others.
Various statistical and regression techniques have also been developed, sometimes linking into extensive databases of historical records (e.g. Mahabir et al.
2006). Some other current areas of research into data-based methods include multivariate statistical methods, artificial intelligence (e.g. neural networks), and Kalman
filtering, in some cases combined with a hydraulic modelling approach (e.g. Daly
2003; Morse and Hicks 2005).
8.4
Control Structures
Control structures can be used in rivers and along coastlines for a variety of purposes including:
Types of structure can include dams, gates, sluices, weirs, barrages, locks and
siphons. Structures may be uncontrolled, in the sense that they always operate when
certain criteria are met (e.g. levels exceeding a certain threshold), or controlled
either manually or automatically.
For flood forecasting applications, a given structure may influence flows or levels sufficiently that if possible it needs to be included in a forecasting model, and
this section describes some typical types of model for the following applications:
The resulting forecasts may also be used as inputs to real time control and decision
support systems and several examples are described in the following sections.
8.4.1
191
Some schemes, such as hydropower plants, may also have emergency drawdown
arrangements. Smaller scale reservoirs built specifically for flood mitigation, such as
flood detention ponds, may have no control at low flows (for example, using a free flowing tunnel as an exit), but start to hold back water as levels rise towards the peak. Flood
flows may be discharged over a spillway built into the front of the dam wall, or using
side channels, tunnels or bellmouth (shaft) spillways (Fig. 8.4). Self-priming siphons
may also included to rapidly draw down water levels if they approach the dam crest.
Off-line reservoirs, sometimes known as washlands, typically have an earth, rockfilled or concrete wall around the perimeter, possibly with one or more internal barriers with gates or sluices to control which areas of land are flooded. Flows in the main
river channel are diverted at weirs and sluices as required to reduce flows further
downstream, or for irrigation of the enclosed areas. Since floods may only occur
192
8 Selected Applications
occasionally, the land may be used for farming or recreation at other times. Reservoirs
of this type are sometimes called polders although, for a true polder, the main purpose
is to protect reclaimed land within the boundaries of the polder, rather than to act as
a flood storage area, and sophisticated drainage and pumping systems may be used to
help to avoid flooding from rainfall, seepage, groundwater, rivers and the sea.
Figure 8.5 shows some examples of the potential impacts on flood flows downstream of fully regulated and unregulated in-line reservoirs, and an unregulated
off-line reservoir (World Meteorological Organisation 1994).
Reservoirs are usually operated using control rules (steering rules) linked to
reservoir levels, and possibly river levels, river flows, and other parameters (e.g.
rainfall). Rules may be static (e.g. seasonally dependent), or updated dynamically
based on observations and the outputs from forecasting models. Real time forecasting systems can be used to assist with decision making and optimising reservoir
operation throughout the flow range (droughts, floods etc.), particularly when there
are several interconnected reservoirs to consider (multi-reservoir systems). Some
key decisions to take during a flood event include:
Whether the predefined flood buffer (if any) will be sufficient for the anticipated
event and, if not, how much to draw down levels to protect the dam and locations
further downstream, particularly if multiple flood peaks are anticipated (e.g.
during a succession of storm events)
Whether levels or flows are likely to reach values which might damage or overtop the dam wall or operating equipment
Whether normal operations should be suspended and for how long (e.g. for
water supply)
Whether to warn or evacuate people downstream of the reservoir if it is likely to
spill or breach
When, and to what extent, to divert flows into an off-line storage area, particularly
if people need to be warned or evacuated, or further flood peaks are forecast
The optimum fill and drawdown sequence for a chain of reservoirs in a multireservoir system
Fig. 8.5 Effects of reservoirs on floods (a) regulated storage (b) unregulated on-stream storage (c)
unregulated off-stream storage (Reproduced from the WMO Guide to Hydrological Practices Data
Acquisition and Processing, Analysis, Forecasting and Other Applications, courtesy of WMO)
193
Also, there will often be an economic dimension to consider as part of the decision
making process; for example, if water is spilled from a hydropower or water supply
reservoir in advance of a flood event, this may incur an opportunity loss for electricity generation or future water supply. Similarly, for off-line reservoirs, there may be
penalty payments to land users when flows are diverted onto farmland. Various
local arrangements may also be in place; for example, a flood warning authority
may rent the upper part of reservoir storage (a flood buffer) at a fixed annual rate,
but incur penalty payments if additional drawdown is required for flood protection.
Dynamic programming, stochastic simulations, artificial neural networks and other
techniques can be used to assist in the optimisation process (e.g. Bhattacharya et al.
2003; Lobbrecht et al. 2005; Nandalal and Bogardi 2007).
Forecasting models for reservoirs can range from simple correlation and water
balance models through to complex integrated catchment models incorporating rainfall runoff, snowmelt, flow routing, water transfer, hydrodynamic, and evaporation
models, including representation of the reservoir control rules. Some key factors to
consider in selecting an appropriate model for the reservoir component include:
The availability of real time information on reservoir levels for model initialisation since, if the initial storage is not known, the forecast outflows can be
considerably in error.
The availability of historical and real time information on reservoir control rules
and gate settings (if relevant), and the extent to which these can be encapsulated
into a model (e.g. logical rules). Also, the influence of pumping, water transfer
and other operations.
The extent to which the reservoir influences flows downstream during flood events.
For example, if the impact is simply to attenuate and delay flows a simple flow
routing model may be sufficient but, if outflows are controlled, or sensitive to forecast levels (e.g. siphon flows), then a full hydrodynamic model may be required.
Whether components in the water balance such as open water evaporation, and
controlled releases for water supply, environmental or ecological purposes, are
of sufficient magnitude to require inclusion in the model.
The availability of real time data can be a particular issue for reservoir forecasting,
particularly for the reservoir levels required for model initialisation. Ideally, in addition to reservoir levels, all key inflows, gate settings and outflows would be monitored
in real time, but this is often not the case unless the monitoring network has been
designed specifically to support a real time control and forecasting application. Also,
for a reservoir with a large surface area, gauging of all major inflows may be impracticable. However, approximate modelling solutions can often be developed, for example, parameterising control rules, using ungauged catchment forecasting techniques,
and other methods. The control rules used in practice may also differ from the published control rules, which can require considerable investigation of historical records
and discussions with operators to determine the actual rules which are used.
Probabilistic techniques (see Chapters 5 and 10) are increasingly being developed
to assist in decision making during reservoir operations. This can bring several benefits, including increased transparency in decision making, awareness of the likely
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8 Selected Applications
worst case scenarios given model uncertainty, and the ability to estimate probabilities of occurrence for input to optimisation routines using cost-loss or utility or penalty functions (see Chapter 10 for a discussion of these terms). Some examples of
optimisation problems might include the trade-offs between opportunity losses due
to draw down compared to the potential flood damage to locations downstream, the
likely cost of repair work at the dam if damage occurs, impacts at the reservoir (recreational, ecological etc.), or the costs of any penalty payments which are incurred.
Stakeholders might also choose to receive warnings at different risk thresholds,
where risk can be defined as the combination of probability and consequence. For
example, a dam operator might be interested in receiving a flood warning at a much
lower probability or risk level (with a higher number of false alarms) than, say, a
community downstream of the reservoir.
Table 8.4 gives some examples of research and operational studies into the use
of forecasting models and decision support systems for real time reservoir operation and flood control.
Table 8.4 Examples of real time decision support systems for reservoir control
Model inputs
and structure
Location
Reservoir uses
Lake Como,
Italy
Irrigation, hydropower
Stochastic
Lenne River,
Germany
Multiple reservoirs
for hydropower, water
supply
Multiple polder
systems
Deterministic
The
Netherlands
Hydropower
Powell and
Lois rivers,
Canada
Folsom project, Flood protection
California,
to Sacramento,
USA
hydropower,
water supply,
recreation
China
Reservoir flood
forecasting and
control system
Ebro river
Multi reservoir
basin, Spain
systems
(41 reservoirs)
Hydropower, flood
Paranaiba
control
river basin,
Brazil
Feitsui
Hydropower, water
supply
Reservoir,
Taiwan
Optimisation problem
Reference
Opportunity losses
from drawdown
versus flood damage downstream
Optimisation of a
multiple reservoir
system for flood
control
Optimisation of water
level management
Todini and
Codeluppi
(1998)
Deterministic,
Ensemble
Flood control,
Emergency
Response
Bowles et al.
(2004)
Deterministic
Flood control
Guo et al.
(2004)
Deterministic
Garcia et al.
(2005)
Deterministic
Hydropower operation
and flood control
Deterministic
Flood control in
typhoons
Collischonn
et al.
(2007a,b)
Nandalal and
Bogardi
(2007)
Artificial
neural
network
Ensemble,
statistical
Gppert et al.
(1998)
Bhattacharya
et al.
(2003)
Hydropower generation Howard (2004,
2007)
8.4.2
195
River control structures can include gates, sluices, weirs, barrages, locks, and siphons. It
is also convenient to discuss pumps in this section. Some typical applications include:
Another application is to protect against high tides although tidal barriers are discussed in the following section.
For flood forecasting applications, in addition to the usual considerations of
cost, data availability and the functionality of the forecasting system etc., the decision on which, if any, structures to include in a model will depend on the proposed
application of the model, the locations of Forecasting Points, real time data availability, information on control rules, and other factors.
In some cases, major simplifications may be possible. For example, for pumps
or gravity fed offtakes, large numbers may be grouped together with a combined
operating rule, perhaps linked to seasonal control rules rather than relying on real
time data. A group of pumps might be considered to divert a fixed flow above a
certain threshold, and zero flow at all other times, or to pump or discharge flows at
a rate which depends on river levels. Also, some structures may be distant from the
required Forecasting Points and have minimal influence on the timing and magnitude of levels and flows at those locations, and hence can be omitted entirely. The
decision on which structures to include will vary from case to case.
The most appropriate type of model will depend on the mode of operation of each
structure. In some cases, a simple flow routing or water balance approach may be sufficient to represent the effect of the structure on downstream flows. However, a real time
hydrodynamic model may be required if the structure has complex control rules, can
impound significant volumes of water, or if its operation depends strongly on forecasts
of levels upstream and/or downstream of the structure (e.g. backwater influences). If the
structure is within or downstream of a Flood Warning Area, then a detailed model may
be required for its influence on both upstream and downstream river levels.
The modelling of structures can become complex when there are several structures interacting and controlling levels or flows further downstream. In this case,
feedback effects can develop, and multiple scenarios or a probabilistic approach
may need to considered to achieve an optimum response as described in the previous section. Figure 8.6 gives an example of the type of situation which can arise.
In this example, river levels in a flood defence system protecting a town are controlled by diverting flows to off-line storage reservoirs. The flows are diverted at weirs with
diversion channels, and the decision making process includes estimating how much
flow to divert, and at what times in the flood event. For example, one consideration is
that, if water is diverted too early, the reservoirs may not have the capacity required to
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8 Selected Applications
Flood Defences
Off-line storage 1
Weir 1
Weir 2
Off-line storage 2
protect against the peak of the event. If multiple peaks are forecast (e.g. due to a succession of heavy rainfall events), then decisions need to be made on whether to delay
diverting flows to preserve capacity for later events (perhaps incurring some flooding
downstream), and on the extent to which reservoirs can be drained down between peaks.
Of course, in a worst case scenario, the forecasting model needs to alert operators that
the flood defences are likely to be overtopped, and a flood warning issued.
The choice of modelling approach will depend on the availability of real time data,
the control rules at the weirs, and the availability of survey data (if a hydrodynamic
model is required), as well as the usual factors of cost, system environment etc. Also,
the required accuracy at the flood defences may be a major consideration; for example, if levels are be controlled during a flood event to within a typical freeboard allowance of 0.10.5 m, then a hydraulic model would probably be required.
A possible forecasting approach could include rainfall runoff models for the tributary and lateral inflows, a hydrodynamic model extending from upstream of the weirs
to the flood defence system, and water balance or hydrodynamic models for the offline storage. Some other factors to consider include possible numerical transient
effects which may appear in model outputs if a hydrodynamic model is used (e.g.
when gates operate), whether there are any backwater influences from downstream of
the flood defence system (e.g. tidal influences), and whether to use a probabilistic or
deterministic approach. Also if real time updating (data assimilation) is used at river
gauging stations, this can further complicate development of the real time control
algorithms. Hence, although at first sight this is a simple configuration, this is a potentially complex optimisation problem, which might require some exploratory investigations to develop a solution.
197
Fig. 8.7 Thames Barrier ( Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2007.
All rights reserved)
Coastal forecasts are obtained from the UKs Storm Tide Forecasting
Service (STFS), which operates models on a 12 km grid for the entire coastline
of the UK and the North Atlantic continental shelf, including the Bay of
Biscay. The model provides hourly surge forecasts up to 36 hours ahead at 6hourly intervals. A reduced version of the model, for is also operated locally
(continued)
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8 Selected Applications
8.4.3
Tidal Barriers
Tidal barriers and barrages have many similarities to river control structures, with
the added complication of a tidal influence further downstream. In flooding applications, they are usually used to prevent river or estuary levels rising above flooding
threshold levels due to high tidal levels, including situations when river flows are
also high. Other applications include hydropower generation, and amenity use (e.g.
marinas, harbours etc.).
The operating rules for a tidal barrier typically guide the opening and closing of
the barrier gates according to a range of combinations of upstream river levels (or
flows), and tidal levels downstream. Control rules may be presented in the form of
charts, look up tables, or encapsulated within a computer-based decision support
system, possibly combined with real time forecasting models. Rules are often
developed using a combination of experience and detailed hydrodynamic and other
modelling for a large number of scenarios.
The design of a tidal barrier needs to allow for the possibility of river levels
upstream of the barrier rising to flooding levels during a river flood event whilst
the barrier is closed to provide protection from coastal flooding. The rules may
allow for this accumulated river flow to be released during low tide periods,
even when a major coastal event is in progress. The need for river flow releases
will depend on the magnitude of the storage upstream of the barrier in river
channels and estuaries, compared to the flow volumes likely to accumulate during a tidal cycle.
199
Although barriers can often be operated on the basis of observed levels alone,
the use of river flow and coastal forecasts can extend the lead time available to
operators, allowing more time for mobilisation of staff, and closure of the barrier
(if the time taken is a constraint). Shipping operators can also be warned of possible
barrier closures (if relevant) and local authorities of any potential for flooding, if
this cannot be entirely mitigated by the barrier.
However, it is often desirable to minimise the number of closures per year, leading to an interesting optimisation problem; for example, balancing the need to provide flood protection against the cost of operating the barrier (staffing, power etc.),
the impact on maintenance and whole-life costs, interruptions to shipping and other
river users, and other factors. An ensemble or probabilistic approach may help in
optimising the decision and weighing up the costs and risks involved.
Some examples of tidal barriers include the Maeslant barrier near Rotterdam in
the Netherlands, which provides protection against surge events in the North Sea, the
Thames Barrier in London (Box 8.2) and the St Petersburg Flood Protection Barrier,
which is situated in a low lying area where the Neva River meets the Gulf of Finland.
The St Petersburg barrier is due for completion in around 20092010 and a decision
support system using observed data and meteorological and hydrodynamic forecasts
is under development to assist with barrier operations (Villars et al. 2007).
8.5
Urban Drainage
Urban drainage systems typically consist of a network of pipes, open channels and
culverts draining into sewers which carry flood flows to wastewater treatment works
or river or sea outfalls. Combined systems may be used for foul water (sewerage)
and surface runoff, or the flows may be handled by separate networks. Systems may
also include flood detention ponds, storm storage tanks and other types of storage.
Urban flood events tend to be characterised by a rapid response, with complicating
factors from debris and blockages, and restrictions on flood flows at major obstacles on the floodplain (road or rail embankments etc.). The percentage of rainfall
which appears as runoff may be high due to the impermeable nature of some surfaces, such as roads, car parks and pedestrian areas.
Urban flooding mechanisms may include surface runoff before water enters the
drainage system (pluvial flooding), outflows from combined sewer systems and
from the drainage network where flows exceed capacity (at manholes, for example),
flows developing along paths of least resistance (e.g. roads), and ponding where
normal drainage paths are blocked. River flooding can also occur in urban areas,
although the response may be complicated by factors such as culverts and bridges,
and may lead to additional drainage related flooding (for example, where high river
levels impede drainage into the river network). River flows typically respond on a
longer timescale than urban runoff, so may occur some time after the local urban
response, although this will depend on the timing and distribution of rainfall in the
catchment both within and upstream of the urban area.
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8 Selected Applications
For planning and design, hydraulic models are widely used and can model
drainage networks in great detail, including pipes, pumps, valves, flood detention
areas, and other features. In principle, models of this type could also be used in real
time to forecast surface flooding such as surcharging, outflows at outfalls, and other
factors, although this is rarely done at present. Modelling can be at district, street
or property level, and may include models for surface runoff into the drainage
network, although identification of drainage routes and contributing areas (drainage catchments) can be difficult in urban areas, and sensitive to small changes in
elevation (e.g. at roadside kerbs).
The hydrological inputs to such models usually assume idealised design storms
whereas, for real time use, details of storm speed, intensity and distribution are
required, and would ideally be available at a high resolution, comparable to typical
drainage catchment areas. Storm direction is of particular interest, since the load on
the drainage network can be higher if rainfall moves down the network, as runoff
in the later stages of the event adds to water already in the system from higher
elevation areas.
Options for monitoring rainfall in urban areas include raingauges and weather
radar. For raingauges, the network density required is usually higher than for river
catchment monitoring, and may not be feasible on cost grounds, although dense
networks are operated by some authorities; for example, Harris County, Texas operates approximately 100 real time raingauges within the boundaries of Houston.
Weather radar can potentially provide more information on the spatial distribution
of rainfall although, as noted in Chapter 2, performance will depend on distance
from the nearest radar, and the accuracy in urban areas may be affected by tall
buildings, masts and other factors. Cheaper, low cost radar, and microwave techniques, are also other possibilities for monitoring rainfall in urban areas.
Information on antecedent conditions may also be required, with runoff characteristics defined individually, or in aggregate, for a wide range of features, including
roofs, roads, gardens, fields, and features in sustainable drainage systems (SUDS),
together with gullies, culverts and other local drainage routes. Geographical
Information Systems combined with Digital Terrain Models offer the possibility of
modelling at this level of detail, although obtaining calibration data and parameters
for all combinations of conditions can be difficult.
The requirements for urban flood forecasting models have many similarities to
river forecasting techniques, but in addition to rainfall runoff and flow routing components, there may be a need for models for the drainage network and other local
effects, such as temporary flow paths along roads and other open areas. River and
urban models can also be coupled dynamically, allowing the interactions between
systems to be represented (e.g. of river levels on drainage, or river spill into a drainage
system). However, although modern computing systems have the capability to run
very detailed models, even in real time, in practice there is usually a need to simplify
and conceptualise models to focus on locations and factors which have the most influence on flooding, perhaps linked to surface water flooding maps.
In addition to providing information to guide warnings of potential flooding,
models can also be used for adaptive or predictive real time control of urban
201
drainage networks (e.g. Cluckie et al. 1998; Vitasovic 2006). For flood events,
the objective is typically to reduce flooding and pollution incidents by making
use of spare capacity in the drainage network by operating pumps, gates, control
valves, weirs etc., or temporarily diverting water to storage areas. Potential
flooding may therefore be reduced or avoided in flood prone locations, whilst
some wider objectives in normal operation can include reducing pumping costs,
optimising the performance of water treatment plant through providing forecasts
of future water and pollution loads, and decision support if problems arise with
parts of the network.
Schilling (1989) and Schtze et al. (2004) present reviews of approaches to the
real time control for urban drainage systems, whilst Table 8.5 presents some examples
of systems with a flood control component which have been used operationally or
in research studies.
The key components in this type of system include monitoring equipment (and
related telemetry), automated or remotely controlled actuators (on valves, gates
etc.), and a defined real time control strategy or set of rules. Some options for
developing control rules include:
Table 8.5 Examples of studies into real time control systems incorporating flood control
aspects
Location
Key features
Reference
Haute-Sre Reservoir,
Luxembourg
URBAS project,
Germany
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8 Selected Applications
8.6
Geotechnical Risks
Type
Examples
Structural risks
Dam break
Failure of river or coastal
defences
Glacial lake outburst floods/
jkulhlaups, landslide
dam outburst floods
Tsunami
Earth movements
203
the flooding impact can potentially be extensive and extreme, and may require
hydrodynamic modelling techniques to predict.
Some other types of flood event which might be included in this category
(although this is debatable) include:
For groundwater flooding, there are well developed hydrodynamic modelling techniques for simulation of aquifers, and these can in principle be applied in near real
time if sufficient real time input data are available on borehole levels, river flows,
rainfall and snow cover, pumping operations etc. Given the often slow nature of
groundwater flooding, a model run frequency of once per day or less may be sufficient; the problem being to obtain enough up to date data to initialise the model.
Other simpler correlation, data based and conceptual or process-based rainfall runoff modelling techniques may also be used (see Chapter 6).
For blockage risks, although these can pose a considerable hazard, they are
intrinsically difficult to forecast, unless there are known problem locations at which
debris usually tends to accumulate, or up to date information can be obtained on
blockage locations (e.g. from at site river level instrumentation, or observations by
CCTV or webcam). This information can then be input into a flow routing or
hydrodynamic model, possibly trying various scenarios for the extent of blockage,
and for the discharge coefficient at the structure. Simpler threshold based techniques may also be used (see Chapter 3).
8.6.1
Structural Risks
Structural risks include dam break, defence (levee) breaches or failure, and failure
of naturally occurring moraine in mountain regions. This type of event can cause
extensive and rapid flooding, possibly with depths, velocities and extents beyond
any previous experience. Some examples have included the failures of two major
dams and dozens of smaller dams in Henan Province in China during a typhoon
event in August 1975, in which about 85,000 people died, and millions were displaced, and the failure of the Vaiont Dam in Northern Italy in October 1963, due to
the wave caused by a landslide into the lake, in which about 2,000 people died
(Graham 2000). The levee failures during and following Hurricane Katrina in
August 2005 also inundated large parts of New Orleans.
The mechanisms for dam and defence failures can include:
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8 Selected Applications
Overtopping or wave action eroding the crest of the structure in places, again
with progressive increases in erosion and flows
Liquefaction for earth structures, for example
Earth movements earthquakes and landslides causing direct damage to
structures
For flood defences (or levees or dikes), failure modes can depend on the materials
used for construction (earth, rockfill, concrete etc.), the hydraulic loading, and the
geometry of the structure. The hydraulic loading can arise from water level differences across a structure, wave action/overtopping, and flows along the length of the
structure. Many sub categories and secondary influences can also be identified.
As part of contingency arrangements, particularly for dam failure, some organisations maintain maps of likely flood extents, and emergency plans detailing the actions
which should be taken if a failure occurs. During a flood event, rapid flood mapping
exercises might also be commissioned if there are concerns about the integrity of a
structure. Detailed monitoring can also be performed of the structure using in-situ (e.g.
accelerometers, piezometers) and remote techniques (e.g. webcams, laser scanning).
Many studies have been performed into simulation (off-line) modelling of structural failures. Models for the breach component can range from simple weir equations assuming a fixed breach size, through to fully dynamic process-based
simulations in which the hydraulic and soil erosion processes are coupled, and
modelled in two or three dimensions. These types of technique could potentially be
applied in real time for scenario modelling if the location of the breach (or likely
location) is known; however, forecasting likely locations remains a research area at
present. For example, the probabilistic risk assessment techniques developed for
flood risk modelling (see Chapter 1), which combine information on probability of
levels (loading) and defence fragility curves, might be used to provide guidance on
potential breach locations. Multiple breach scenarios are also calculated off-line to
provide one of the sources of information available to emergency managers in the
Netherlands, for example (see Chapter 10).
Model calibration is complicated by the lack of reliable calibration data, due to
the rarity and unpredictability of occurrence of this type of event, although a number
of large-scale experiments have been performed to gain an insight into typical
parameter values (e.g. IMPACT 2005). For debris blockages in rivers from landslides, added complications include the irregular, and probably unknown, nature of
the materials making up the barrier. For Glacial Lake Outburst Floods and Landslide
Dam Outburst Floods, the conditions leading up to failure of the debris/moraine/ice
dam can often be recognised, although the timing is difficult to predict, and may be
influenced by volcanic and earthquake activity (e.g. Snorrason et al. 2000).
For dam breaks, in addition to breach models, flood propagation models are
usually also required for flows downstream, and are usually of the types described
in Chapter 6 for river flows. However, some added complications may include
high sediment loads, the need to model structures and obstacles which are
normally above extreme river flood levels, and uncertainty about the appropriate
values to use for some model parameters (e.g. roughness coefficients) and for
likely flow paths.
8.6.2
205
Earth Movements
Earthquakes, landslides, volcanic and other events can affect river and coastal conditions either indirectly (by damage to structures, for example; see the previous
section), or directly, by generation of flood waves, such as Tsunami in coastal
waters, and by causing surge waves, flow blockages, and an increase in debris and
sediment content in river waters.
For rivers, debris or mud flows often result from heavy rainfall, and are in principle predictable using similar techniques to those used for flash flooding. The
flows consist mainly of water, soil, rocks, slurry and other debris (e.g.
Mirtskhoulava 2000). Operational forecasting systems typically use rainfall depth
duration thresholds based on observed rainfall, and sometimes forecast rainfall, and
these methods have been reported for Puerto Rico, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and locations in Italy and the USA, for example (e.g. NOAA-USGS 2005). A prototype
Debris Flow Warning System for the western USA is also described using a rainfall
threshold approach combined with predictive debris-flow-volume models, but with
a long term development path towards distributed near real time process based
models combining digital terrain models, rainfall distributions, and models for
rainfall infiltration, slope stability, and channel bed erosion and deposition (e.g.
Rickenmann and Chen 2003).
By contrast, in the oceans, perhaps the main hazard is from the waves generated
by subsea earthquakes, volcanic activity or landslides, which are usually known as
Tsunami. In addition to the catastrophic December 2004 event in the Indian Ocean,
other major Tsunami in recent decades have included the 1993 Hokkaido Tsunami
in Japan, which reached heights of 510 m, and the 1992 Flores Tsunami in
Indonesia, with heights of about 47 m (Satake 2000).
In the open ocean, Tsunami waves typically travel at speeds of about 500
1,000 km per hour, depending on ocean depth, with a wave length of about 510 km
or more (and sometimes hundreds of kilometres). Here, they pose little threat since
wave magnitudes are small, and typically only of the order of 1 m. The destructive
effect of a Tsunami arises in shallow coastal waters, when raised water levels,
combined with the large volumes of water involved, can cause extensive flooding
inland.
The modelling techniques for Tsunami are essentially those already described in
Chapter 7 for surge propagation. For open ocean propagation, the non-linear
shallow water equations provide a reasonable approximation to wave motion due
to the long wavelength, which is comparable to typical ocean depths. However,
techniques are less well developed for modelling the initial wave formation, and the
run up process at shorelines, and high grid resolutions, and three dimensional modeling techniques, are possibly required to obtain accurate estimates (and remain an
active area of research).
Tsunami monitoring and forecasting is performed both nationally and internationally; for example, in Japan, and at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre in
Hawaii. The December 2004 Tsunami has also led to major efforts to install and
upgrade warning systems. Forecasts rely both on ocean modelling, and detection of
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8 Selected Applications
seismic activity. Since the speed of seismic waves is about an order of magnitude
more than for Tsunami waves, seismic detectors can also be used to trigger an
increased state of monitoring and mobilisation, if the conditions appear likely to
have caused an event. For example, in some locations, such as the Pacific Ocean,
the time for a Tsunami to cross the ocean is several hours, so forecasts can be based
on sea level observations as well (e.g. Satake 2000). However, locally generated
events can occur only a few minutes after the initial seismic event so that is the
main indicator of likely flooding.
Part III
Emergency Response
Chapter 9
Preparedness
As with other types of natural hazard, the effectiveness of response to a flood event
can be improved if an emergency plan has already been prepared, so that all participants understand their roles and responsibilities, including the overall chain of
command. The potential disruption from flooding also needs to be considered,
including the possibility of communication, instrumentation, computer and other
systems failing, and access and evacuation routes being cut by flood water. Risk
assessment techniques are also increasingly used to assess the resilience of response
procedures, together with developments in information technology for the spatial
analysis and visualisation of flood extent relative to properties, infrastructure and
transport routes. This chapter provides an introduction to these issues, and discusses
the general trend towards multi-hazard systems, which share systems and resources
across many types of threat.
9.1
9.1.1
Flood Emergency Plans describe the actions to take between, during and following
flood events, and typically cover operational procedures, emergency response
assets, contact details for key staff, health and safety issues, procedures for liaison
with the media and the public, and information on safe access and evacuation routes
and shelters. Some guidelines on developing flood emergency plans include US
Army Corps of Engineers (1996), NOAA/NWS (1997) and Emergency Management
Australia (1999) for river flooding, and Holland (2007) for tropical cyclone forecasting. Depending on the type of flooding, lead time available, and population
affected, examples of actions which may need to be taken in the run up to and during a flood event include (USACE 1996):
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9 Preparedness
For tropical cyclones (e.g. World Meteorological Organisation 2006a; Holland 2007),
at about 3648 hours from landfall, activities can include fishing boats returning to
home ports, setting up emergency operation centres, preliminary precautions being
taken by residents, and starting to provide 6 hourly updates. Then, within about 2436
hours from landfall, evacuation of exposed properties begins, businesses and industry
commence shutdown procedures, and updates move to 3 hourly intervals. Most preparations should be complete within about 68 hours of landfall, leaving the emergency services to check for any remaining vulnerable people and secure community
lifelines. Warnings continue for about 12 hours after landfall, including for river
flooding from heavy rainfall, and any changes in cyclone strength or track.
Information on roles and responsibilities, and inter-agency coordination, is often
an important consideration in developing flood emergency plans, since a river or
coastal flooding event can cut across administrative and political boundaries, and
may affect more than one country, so many organisations may be involved in the
response. The organisational structure and terminology used varies widely between
countries, but Table 9.1 illustrates in general terms some of the organisations which
may be involved in responding to a flood event, and some typical roles and
responsibilities.
In emergency planning guides, some key points which are often emphasised
include:
Group/department etc.
Environmental,
Scientific
Meteorological Service
Flood Warning Service
(if separate)
Emergency
Services/Civil
Protection
National, State,
Local Authorities
Communities
Utilities
Transport
Operators
Private Sector
Voluntary Sector
Media
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9 Preparedness
Social, political, and cultural differences between countries can lead to a wide
range of approaches to command and control structures, but often national disaster
managers, local authorities, the police or the military will assume the role of overall
coordinators, depending on the scale of the event. In a major event, regional and
national command centres may also be established to ensure that resources, funds
and equipment are made available to flooded areas.
The resources available for flood response can include extra staff and private
sector contractors (e.g. for emergency repairs and debris removal), whilst equipment can include vehicles, medical supplies, earthmovers, pumps, generators,
boats, sandbags, and mobile communications. Procedures also need to be established for accepting assistance from third parties. For example, in rapidly flowing
water, swift water rescue skills are needed, and offers of assistance may need to be
refused. The establishment of a national system of response and rescue competencies (sometimes called team typing), provides one way of ensuring that volunteers
and others have the necessary training, equipment and procedures to avoid becoming
victims themselves
Community engagement can cover both education on actions to take when
receiving warnings, and direct inputs to emergency plans from community members or their representatives. Much of the literature on early warning systems (e.g.
Handmer 2002; World Meteorological Organisation 2006b; ISDR 2006; United
Nations 2006) emphasises a community based or people-centred approach, in
which those at risk are engaged in the planning process, helping to decide on the
most effective forms of response, and the best way to present and receive warning
messages. Four key elements to consider (ISDR 2006) include:
Risk Knowledge Are the hazards and the vulnerabilities well known? What are
the patterns and trends in these factors? Are risk maps and data widely
available?
Monitoring & Warning Service Are the right parameters being monitored? Is
there a sound scientific basis for making forecasts? Can accurate and timely
warnings be generated?
Dissemination and Communication Do warnings reach all of those at risk? Are
the risks and warnings understood? Is the warning information clear and
useable?
213
Response Capability Are response plans up to date and tested? Are local
capacities and knowledge made use of? Are people prepared and ready to react
to warnings?
Cultural issues relating to gender, income, language and other factors also need to
be considered, such as informal developments on floodplains, with plans tailored to
meet the needs of specific groups (e.g. do people have livestock or pets which they
may be reluctant to leave behind). In particular, this may increase the success rate
of evacuating people during a flood, with failure to leave property leading to the
emergency services needing to engage in time consuming and potentially high risk
rescues at later stages in the event. Chapter 4 discusses some of the techniques
which can be used for raising public awareness of flooding, and of the actions to
take on receiving flood warnings, including leaflet campaigns, seminars, meetings,
radio and television appearances, open days, flood fairs, school visits, and educational films.
A distinction can also be made between plans at individual (or family) level,
community level, and at site specific, organisational, local, regional or national
level. For example, individuals can develop (perhaps with assistance) personal
action plans describing actions to take in the event of flooding, including consideration of locations at risk from flooding, how to protect property, checklists of what
to take if evacuated (food and water, medical supplies, phones, radios, food, flashlights etc.), key contacts, information on where to go in an emergency, and the safest escape routes (e.g. FEMA 1997). Other items might include batteries, blankets,
protective gloves, disinfectant, a first aid kit, personal documents, insurance policies, and switching off gas, water and electricity. In the Netherlands, for example,
residents can view neighbourhood flood emergency response plans and maps on a
website by entering their property location. At community/village level (World
Meteorological Organisation 2006a), plans might include:
Identifying and maintaining of safe havens, safe areas and temporary shelters
Putting up signs on routes or alternate routes leading to safe shelters
Informing the public of the location of safe areas and the shortest routes leading
to them
Having all important contacts ready: district or provincial and national emergency lines; and having a focal point in the village
Making arrangements for the damage and needs assessment team and health
team
Setting up community volunteer teams for a 24-hour flood watch
Improving or keeping communication channels open to disseminate warnings
Distributing the information throughout the community
In rural areas, cattle, poultry and other livestock might also be moved to safety and
supplies of firewood, drinking water and animal folder secured. The Stormwatch
programme in the USA is another example at community level, and a community
can be designated as StormReady (FEMA 2005) for weather hazards by completing
the following steps:
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9 Preparedness
Site specific plans may discuss particular hazards and needs at individual locations
(e.g. water treatment works, power stations) whilst, at local authority, regional and
national level, flood emergency plans usually also cover the actions needed in the
aftermath of an event (the recovery phase), including which organisation(s) will
assume responsibility for repairs, debris removal, reuniting families, emergency
funding arrangements, and providing shelter, food, water, medical care, counselling, support to businesses, and restoration of services if interrupted (power, water,
communications etc.). However, these topics fall outside the scope of this book and
are not considered further, except for the topic of post event analysis of flood warning
performance, which is discussed in Chapter 11.
9.1.2
Risk Assessments
One key stage in developing a flood emergency plan is to assess the flood risk,
and to tailor the response to the level of risk. Flood risk can be expressed in
terms of the probability of flooding and the likely impacts (e.g. the number of
people or properties at risk, or economic value, or the combination of exposure
and vulnerability). Here vulnerability concerns not just the threat of flooding,
but the ability of people to cope with a flood event, including mobility, age,
type of residence, awareness of flooding, and access to transport and flood resilience measures.
Chapter 1 describes techniques for estimating the likely extent of inundation,
which can include compiling historical observations, using local knowledge, and
performing hydrodynamic modelling studies of various levels of complexity. If
available, the resulting inundation maps can be overlain on street maps and satellite
or aerial photographs, perhaps combined with terrain models based on digital elevation datasets. Additional potential sources of flooding may also need to be considered, including flood defences which are known to be in poor condition, locations
where debris or ice jams may cause raised water levels, and dam breaches.
In addition to identifying properties at risk, high-risk locations such as hospitals,
schools and nursing homes may also need to be considered, and specific procedures
developed for these locations within the overall plan. For a hospital, for example,
this might include defining the criteria for evacuation, and the additional resources
which health workers would require in moving patients to a place of safety (vehicles, people, equipment etc.). For some situations, there can be a difficult balance
of risks to consider, each requiring a separate risk assessment; for example, for
215
nursing homes and hospitals, evacuating patients may cause injury or distress, and
this needs to be balanced against the risks from flooding. Specific assessments may
also be needed for other high-risk locations such as power stations, water treatment
works, prisons, high-rise buildings, underground car parks, major roads, airports
and rail stations, shopping centers and subway systems (e.g. Ishigaki et al. 2006),
industrial plant, and sites with hazardous materials. Evacuation sequences can also
be prepared as shown in the simple example in Fig. 9.1.
The figure shows a hypothetical example of a flood warning area with five zones
or districts defined. An indication is provided of the numbers of properties which
need to be evacuated as river levels rise, and the time available before the onset of
flooding (which is shown by grey shading). Links are provided to a map at each
river or tidal level showing the estimated extent of flooding at that level, the properties affected, and safe evacuation routes. During a flood event, plans would of
course need to be adapted as the situation unfolds, and real time decision support
systems are increasingly being considered for use in updating emergency plans in
real time as described in Chapter 10.
As noted in Chapters 3 and 5, several factors need to be considered when estimating the actual time available for emergency actions, including the time delay between
observations being made and being ready to use (polling time), the various time
delays in performing forecasting model runs, the decision times needed by operational staff, and the time required to issue warnings to all recipients. For example, for
tropical cyclone forecasting, the time delays up to the time of issuing a warning (i.e.
excluding the dissemination time) include the time taken for observational data to
arrive at the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, the time taken for data to be processed
and then presented to the forecaster, forecaster analysis, assessment and prediction
time, and the time needed for message preparation (Holland 2007).
Estimates such as these can guide response strategies, and help to gain a better
idea of the trade off between delaying a decision (hoping for better information),
and reducing the time available for emergency actions to be taken, such as evacuating properties. This point is discussed further in Section 10.3.
Perhaps the most highly developed approach to evacuation planning is that used
in the USA for hurricane evacuations (see Box 9.1). For example, during Hurricane
Katrina in 2005, it is estimated that some one million people left their properties.
Evacuation plans are typically developed as part of Hurricane Evacuation Studies
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The timing of events varies but typically the move to Level IV might be up to 1
week ahead of the estimated time of landfall, Level III 3 or more days ahead,
Level II 23 days ahead, and Level I within 1 day of landfall. Minimum lead times
required for evacuation can be in the range 972 hours ahead of landfall depending on the category of hurricane and road network and population densities, but
are typically in the range 1224 hours. Evacuation routes are typically closed
shortly before the hurricane makes landfall so that any residents, media representatives etc. remaining can be directed to local shelters or refuges of last resort.
Evacuation orders can be voluntary, recommended or mandatory. Voluntary
orders are used for offshore workers and others who require long lead times to
move, whilst recommended orders are issued if there is a high probability of a hurricane causing a threat to people in at risk areas. Mandatory orders are only used in
some states. Public awareness campaigns between events play an important role in
improving the effectiveness of evacuation orders when a hurricane occurs, with the
aim to maximise the number of people at risk moving to shelters, and minimise the
number of so-called shadow evacuations, where people move although they may
not be directly at risk.
217
(USACE 1995), initiated since the 1980s by the Federal Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA), and available to download from the internet. These studies typically incorporate a hazard analysis, a vulnerability analysis, an evacuee behavioural analysis, a sheltering analysis, and a transportation analysis, guided by
estimates for maximum inland water levels from the National Weather Service
(see Chapter 7), and including plans to evacuate vulnerable groups.
9.1.3
All-Hazard Approaches
Flood emergency plans are often developed as part of an all-hazard (or multi-hazard)
approach to emergency planning, and the methods used may be formalised in
national legislation. A multi-hazard approach brings economies of scale, sustainability and efficiency, and opportunities for more frequent use and testing than for
single-hazard systems (e.g. ISDR 2006).
For example, in the United States, the Federal Emergency Management Agency
(FEMA http://www.fema.gov/) uses a standard approach called the National
Incident Management System for incident management for all hazards and across
all levels of government. The six main components are:
Command and Management covering Incident Command Systems, MultiAgency Coordination Systems, and Public Information Systems
Preparedness covering planning, training, exercises, personal qualification and
certification, equipment acquisition and certification, mutual aid and publications management
Resource Management covering standardized mechanisms and establishing
requirements for processes to describe, inventory, mobilise, dispatch, track and
recover resources over the life cycle of an incident
Communications and Information Management covering Incident Management
Communications and Information Management
Supporting Technologies including voice and data communications systems,
information management systems, and data display systems
Ongoing Management and Maintenance covering routine review and continuous refinement over the long term
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9 Preparedness
Category 1 responders are typically first on the scene of an event, and take
responsibility for managing the crisis, and include the two main organisations responsible for issuing flood warnings (the Environment Agency and
SEPA). The main civil protection duties for Category 1 responders are as follows (HM Government 2005):
Risk assessment
Business continuity management (BCM)
Emergency planning
Maintaining public awareness and arrangements to warn, inform and
advise the public
Cooperation and information sharing
Provision of advice and assistance to the commercial sector and voluntary
organisations (Local Authorities only)
Aim of the plan, including links with the plans of other responders
Information about the specific hazard or contingency or site for which the
plan has been prepared
Trigger for activation of the plan, including alert and standby
procedures
Activation procedures
(continued)
219
Identification and roles of multi-agency strategic (gold) and tactical (silver) teams
Stand-down procedures
Training schedule
In addition to the needs of victims and the safety of emergency workers, particular
emphasis is given to the needs of vulnerable groups, who may require special
assistance during an incident.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller
of HMSO and the Queens Printer for Scotland
9.1.4
Plans usually also consider arrangements for validation, testing and regular reviews.
Emergency response exercises are often office-based (e.g. table top exercises), and
may occur in accelerated time. Typically, the exercise coordinator will introduce
complications as the event unfolds, including escalating the situation, and introducing issues needing immediate response. Public relations skills may also be tested,
including simulated questions from the public, media, and politicians. Larger scale
exercises may also include simulated television and radio news broadcasts, and
computer-based simulations of the types of output which would be available in a
real event, such as forecasting model outputs, and weather radar displays.
As an example of the complexity of these exercises, Exercise TRITON held in
the UK in 2004 simulated an extreme flood event in England and Wales, and
involved some 1,000 representatives from more than 60 organisations and agencies,
based at 35 locations, over a period of 3 days. The exercise explored the effectiveness of interagency coordination, command structures, response assets etc. during
both the response and recovery phases of the event.
In the USA, the Hurricane Pam exercise in 2004 was based around a fictional
Category 34 hurricane, with sustained winds of 120 mph, a major storm surge, and
up to 20 in. of rainfall in places (US House of Representatives 2006). The aim was
to help officials develop joint response plans for a catastrophic hurricane in
Louisiana. The exercise was performed over four workshops, and the first workshop,
held in July 2004, involved some 300 emergency officials from 50 parish, state,
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9 Preparedness
federal, and volunteer organizations over a period of 8 days. The topics considered
included search and rescue operations, temporary shelters, medical care, debris
management, and other factors, including dealing with hazardous materials, power,
water and ice distribution, and drainage of flood waters.
The exercise was performed as part of a wider initiative by the Federal Emergency
Management Agency (FEMA) in conducting catastrophic disaster planning, and was
the first in a series of 25 disaster scenarios to be considered (prioritised on the basis
of risk). The lessons learned from the exercise helped with the response to Hurricane
Katrina during 2005 although, as with any exercise, some additional factors occurred
during that event which were not anticipated, and work was still in progress in implementing some of the lessons learned from the exercise at the time of the event.
9.2
9.2.1
Resilience
Introduction
9.2 Resilience
221
problems, resulted in the loss of three million telephone lines in the states of
Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, 38 emergency phone call centres, some
police and fire department communication networks, up to 2,000 cell phone sites,
and 37 out of 41 radio stations in New Orleans and surrounding areas. Backup
generators for radio networks also failed in places due to flooding, or the difficulty
in refuelling them. Satellite phones, either hand-held or in Mobile Emergency
Response Support vehicles, remained the only reliable form of communication in
some locations. Critical infrastructure affected included the New Orleans Police
Department headquarters, and six of the eight police districts buildings (US
House of Representatives 2006).
To give an indication of the range of technical and communication problems
which can occur, Table 9.2 illustrates some issues for a number of flood events in
Table 9.2 Illustration of some of the technical and communications difficulties which can occur
during flood events
Topic
Point of failure
Control centres/
emergency
operations centres
Rescue centres,
shelters
Access routes
Evacuation routes
Utilities
Communications
between
organisations
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9 Preparedness
Point of failure
Europe and the USA in recent years, based on various sources referred to in this
and other chapters, together with some simple examples of possible contingency
arrangements.
In addition to evacuation of properties, and mobilising staff, some preparatory
actions which can be taken by the emergency services and others if warnings are
received in time include:
9.2 Resilience
223
Dam
Railway
Major road
Police patrol
Village
Town
Pre-position 2
crews
Town
Town
Power Station
Farms
Caravan Park
Precautionary
evacuation
Discuss contingency
plans with duty
manager
Chemical Factory
Town
Fig. 9.2 Simple illustration of operational response early in a developing river flood event
For example, for the hypothetical flood warning scenarios presented in Fig. 1.5,
a flood risk mapping exercise might show that, in a heavy rainfall event, the
main areas at risk include the main town, power station, motorway, caravan
park, and isolated farms. An initial assessment (Fig. 9.2) might suggest a range
of options in the early stages of the event before flooding occurs, including
placing residents of the caravan park on standby to evacuate the site, assessing
the readiness of the power station operator to install temporary defences, or
switch to alternate power supplies, placing a police patrol at the main road
bridge ready to close the road if flooding looks likely, and positioning a number
of search and rescue crews, with mobile communications, food and water supplies, in the town in case access routes are cut. The timing of actions would
depend on the probability of flooding, and levels of risk (which, for simplicity,
are not shown on the figure).
Increasingly, spatial analysis tools are being used for this type of assessment,
and are described in Section 9.3.
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9.2.2
9 Preparedness
Analysis Techniques
Many other problems can occur in the chain of detection, forecasting, warning, dissemination
and response, and the analysis of possible causes of failure, and devising alternative
plans, is often called contingency planning or business continuity management.
The initial assessment of risks is usually performed based on experience and lessons learned from previous flood events, and many analyses may proceed no further
than this stage. However, more formal techniques are widely used in other sectors,
such as the chemical, aviation and oil and gas industries, and the aim is usually to
consider the following questions (e.g. Federal Aviation Authority 2000):
Analyses may start from a single event, and explore all outcomes, or consider a
single outcome, and explore what faults or events could realistically have led to that
problem. These are known as top down or bottom up approaches. Systems may be
probabilistically safe, inherently safe, failsafe, or fault tolerant. For example, a
probabilistically safe system has enough redundancy (computers, instruments etc.)
that a failure is unlikely to cause problems, whilst a fault tolerant system can continue
to operate if problems occur, although not as effectively.
Thus an analysis of flood emergency response would need to consider all likely
causes of failure (weak links) and critical paths, including problems due to equipment,
communications, and human factors, either for individual subsystems, or for the entire
9.2 Resilience
225
Fig. 9.3 Representation of the flood incident management process for a site at Pill near Bristol
(Environment Agency 2006, Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2008. All
rights reserved)
system. The analyses could be used as a simple screening tool, to help to explore potential sources of failure, or taken further to derive quantitative estimates of risk.
These types of analysis are little used at present in flood incident management,
but are being developed by some authorities. To take a simple example, in probabilistic risk assessment the risk presented by a pump failure could be estimated as the
probability of failure per event, multiplied by the number of events in the period
being considered (e.g. a year), and the probability of this leading to property flooding,
to give an overall risk score. Figure 9.3 shows a slightly more complex example for
a tidal sluice gate.
The gate needs to be closed during exceptional tides to protect the village of Pill
in southwest England from flooding, and this example was developed to illustrate
the potential use of Bayesian networks in risk assessments for flood incident
management.
For individual components in the chain of people, equipment and systems the
situation being considered may be reasonably self contained and amenable to analysis
(and these techniques may already be used by suppliers of some forms of emergency
response equipment, for example). However, when considering wider issues, there
are numerous interacting factors, both technical and non-technical, which can affect
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how the response to a flood event unfolds. For example, the response and expectations
of individuals may need to be considered; including the extent to which people will
help neighbours and the emergency services, or may take risks trying to rescue animals
or valuable possessions. Also, whether people will agree to leave their homes when
issued with a warning.
For analysis of systems with high levels of uncertainty, and complex interactions, other more qualitative methods are available in which user views on probability
(e.g. quite high) and consequence (e.g. serious) are translated into a form which
can be analysed. Techniques include fuzzy set logic and linguistic reasoning in
which scoring and ranking systems are used to quantify risks, based on interviews
and expert opinion (e.g. Environment Agency 2007). Other approaches, such as
Bayesian Networks, Artificial Neural Networks, and Agent Based Modelling,
might also be considered. The focus of the analysis could be at a range of levels,
including at strategic, operational or tactical level, covering multiple organisations
and stakeholders, or covering just individual organisations, or single locations.
9.3
9.3.1
Flood Risk Assessments hydrodynamic modelling to derive quantitative estimates of flood risk, combining probability and consequence (Chapter 1)
Telemetry Systems to manage the collection of real time data for river levels,
rainfall, tide levels, and other parameters (Chapter 2)
Dissemination Systems automated systems for sending flood warnings to the
public and first responders, by telephone, email and other methods (Chapter 4)
Flood Forecasting Systems to operate real time rainfall runoff, flow routing,
hydrodynamic, surge, wave and other forecasting models (Chapter 5)
In the area of emergency response, some additional types of system which are
increasingly being used include:
227
For all applications, if systems are integrated into operational procedures, then
some important factors to consider include resilience, staff training, data security,
data quality, metadata, and access to confidential information. Also, for interagency systems, there are many issues to consider concerning funding, terminology, standards, and the interoperability of systems. Adoption of formal risk
assessments, and software design and acceptance testing procedures, is essential.
9.3.2
Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are increasingly used to assist both with
planning for emergencies, and in the recovery phase (e.g. MacFarlane 2005; van
Oosterom et al. 2005). Information can be combined from a wide range of sources
and presented in a consistent and intuitive way. In flooding applications, some
information of interest can include rivers, coastlines, flood hazard maps, census
data, administrative boundaries, roads, streets, topography, critical installations,
industrial hazards, commercial properties, utility data, and other features, as well as
information specific to the emergency response (e.g. control rooms, evacuation
shelters, medical facilities). Searches can also be performed for specific sectors of
the community who may require specific assistance during an event (e.g. people
with medical conditions, or who speak a foreign language).
Sources of information can include local authorities, the emergency services,
central government, and the private sector. To combine datasets from many different sources, the location and extent of each feature is needed. For records which are
not already geographically referenced, information on street addresses, post codes,
or road names or may be sufficient to generate the required datasets. The functionality available in a modern system typically includes:
Pan, zoom and overlay of map layers and images (e.g. aerial or satellite
photographs)
Other presentation options (e.g. transparent layers, three dimensional views,
animations, graphs, reports)
Overlay, Neighbourhood and Buffering analyses (e.g. all properties which lie
within a flood risk area, or within a given distance of a river)
Boolean analysis allowing complex searches to be performed (e.g. the operating
bases for all helicopters with the required load capacity within 20 minutes flying
time of a site)
Network analyses (e.g. for travel times of emergency response vehicles from one
location to another)
Terrain analysis (e.g. for assessing the line of sight of radio and cell phone communications to and from a flood prone area)
Data modelling using the outputs from models to generate new datasets (e.g.
flood hazard maps)
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9 Preparedness
9.3.3
Visualisation and simulation tools are increasingly used to present complex information in an intuitive way to non-specialists, and for training exercises and assisting in developing emergency response plans. In flood emergency response
applications, two examples of interest are:
Flood Maps three dimensional views and animations of flood extent against a
backdrop of topography, buildings, mountains etc.
Simulators virtual reality effects incorporated into systems used for emergency
response exercises, and in decision support systems
This is an active area of research (e.g. Pajorova et al. 2007), and practical applications are already in use in other emergency response applications; for example, in
training search and rescue teams to deal with major fires and nuclear incidents.
Figure 9.4 shows an example of a virtual reality representation of flooding in a
residential area produced by the Virtual Environmental Planning Project (http://
www.veps3d.org).
River levels are shown in bank and for a major flood event. The flood scenario is hypothetical, and extreme, but illustrates how flood extents can be
viewed in context. The software also allows users to animate the flood
sequence, and to view the scene from different directions, and at different
magnifications.
More generally, search and rescue services are increasingly using simulators
for training exercises or to test emergency response plans, often building on techniques developed for computer games, and these techniques also have potential
229
for flood response applications. Some typical functionality (e.g. Gyorfi et al.
2006) includes:
Virtual Reality the trainer and students can move around and interact with a
virtual representation of the control room or incident, including buildings, rescue equipment, vehicles, personnel etc. Simulations can be replayed as part of
the training exercise.
Multimedia video links are provided to actual or simulated personnel for interviews, consultation etc., simulated television news, and synthetic or actual radio
and cell phone discussions.
Networking the facility is available for multiple participants to join the simulation over the internet, and to influence the course of events.
Artificial Intelligence is used to encapsulate and represent the behaviour of
other participants at the scene of the event (the public, casualties, emergency
services etc.).
The nature of the simulations can be tailored to national incident protocols and
linked into national standards. For example, the Incident Commander training simulator software developed for the National Institute of Justice, which is the research
arm of the U.S. Department of Justice, can be used by emergency managers in testing response, and training, to hurricane, flood and other small to medium scale
incidents (up to 500,000 residents). The severe storm recovery component provides
the option to deal with many types of problem, included obstructed roads, casualties,
gas leaks, and downed trees blocking roads.
Chapter 10
Response
Flood warnings provide local authorities, the emergency services, the public and
others with time to take actions to reduce the risk from flooding, and information
on the likely extent and locations of flooding. Actions which can be taken before a
flood starts include installation of temporary defences, operation of flow control
structures, protection of personal property, evacuation of people from areas at risk,
and positioning of emergency vehicles and other assets in locations which may
become inaccessible due to flood waters. Increasingly, decision support systems are
also being developed to assist in responding to flood events, and can provide advice
on strategies for evacuating property, casualty management, and emergency repairs
to flood defences. This chapter considers these issues, together with the more general topic of dealing with uncertainty in decision making during flood events.
10.1
10.1.1
One of the key benefits of flood warnings is that, if time permits, a number of
actions can be taken in advance of flooding to reduce the extent of damage to property and the risk to life. The key stages in issuing a flood warning have been
described in earlier chapters and include:
If sufficient time is available, warnings are normally escalated from an initial advisory that flooding is possible, through to a full flood warning.
The receipt of an advisory or warning is usually the trigger to activate a flood
emergency plan (if one exists), and to commence preparatory actions. As described
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Fig. 10.1 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Incident Command Centre at a
flood event; Kingfisher, Oklohoma, August 20, 2007 (FEMA/Marvin Nauman)
The time available to prepare depends on the type of flood event. For the case of
flash floods from rainfall, ice jams and landslides, only a few hours at best may be
available. However, for events such as floods in the lower reaches of large rivers, or
storm surge, a day or more of warning may be possible. For tropical cyclones,
typhoons and hurricanes, sometimes up to a week of advance warning can be provided, although with considerable uncertainty about the location, timing and severity
of the event at that lead time.
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Photography taking photographs and videos of the flood extent from the
ground, and from helicopters and aircraft (if available)
River gauging making spot measurements of high flows to help in calibrating
river monitoring equipment (see Chapter 2)
Flood inundation sensors reading staff gauges, noting maximum levels, and
sometimes installing equipment (e.g. maximum level recorders) to record the
flood depths reached (see Chapter 2)
Many hydrological services routinely perform tasks of this type during flood
events, with the staff requirements and procedures written into warning procedures
to ensure that they are not overlooked.
Similarly, decisions to pre-position people and equipment in locations likely
to be cut off by flooding are much easier to take if the requirements have been
identified and agreed in advance. For example, there may be a need to preposition a high volume pump or fire truck at a location expected to flood severely,
even though minor flooding is already occurring at another location where the
equipment is also needed. If a risk-based assessment has already been performed at the planning stage, then this helps to avoid local conflict when the
decision needs to be taken.
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Much of the focus in the run up to the onset of flooding is also on avoiding the
need to rescue people, pets or livestock. Compared to other alternatives, such as
evacuation, or installing temporary barriers, rescues can be risky and time consuming, and limit the resources available to respond to other problems as they
arise. For example, in the UK, procedures can require a team of five to six people
to rescue one person (or more) trapped in fast flowing river water, including one
person upstream to spot debris flowing towards the rescue site, two people downstream to spot the casualty if they are swept away by water, and two to three people on site for the rescue itself (e.g. by boat or rope). Similarly, rescues from
vehicles can be hazardous, and survival rates are much lower than for people
trapped in property, so closing roads early to avoid the situation arising is the
preferred option.
Once flooding has started, and flood warnings have been issued, the role of flood
warning and forecasting starts to assume less importance, although forecasting
models (see Chapters 58) can continue to assist throughout the event in answering
questions on the likely magnitude and timing of the peak, flooding extent, and
when waters are likely to drop, and roads can be reopened and people allowed to
return to their properties.
10.1.2
Timelines
One widely used concept in emergency response is that of the event timeline.
This describes the sequence of incidents, emergency calls, responses, actions etc.
which occur during an event. Timelines are used in post event assessments of
response, and may also be available in real time to assist other responders in
understanding the situation. Modern incident management and decision support
systems can automatically log occurrences from a wide range of sources and
organisations, and make this information available to all responders over secure
websites (see Section 10.2).
As an illustration of a timeline, Fig. 10.2 provides a hypothetical example, from
the perspective of a flood warning service, for a short lived flash flooding event
affecting a small town called Newtown during the early hours of the morning. The
roles, staff job titles, actions etc. will vary widely between organisations and specific flooding events so this example is just for illustration. The sequence would
also continue into post event actions, reporting, assisting residents to return to properties and assess and repair damage, reopening roads, debriefs etc. Also, this event
proceeds predictably with no problems arising such as flow control structures not
operating as expected, or problems being encountered with contacting key people,
or access to equipment etc.
As another example, Box 10.1 shows the actual timeline for a flash flooding
event, with a focus on the emergency response (adapted from North Cornwall
District Council 2004). The event occurred in the village of Boscastle in South
West England in the summer of 2004.
02:00
02:45
02:55
03:00
03:15
03:20
03:25
03:30
04:10
04:15
04:15
04:30
04:35
04:50
05:10
05:40
06:10
06:40
07:30
The 2 am routine discussion with the duty weather forecaster suggests a general risk of heavy rainfall in the region, although it is
difficult to be specific on locations at this stage
Flash warning received of a 70% probability of heavy rainfall
over the Newtown catchment in the next 12 hours. Discussions
with the duty weather forecaster suggest that a major rainfall
event is possible in the catchment
Duty officer completes reviews of weather forecast, weather
radar, raingauge, river level and flood forecasting model outputs
(including two model runs for different rainfall scenarios)
Duty officer issues a Flood Watch advisory message, incident
room opened, duty and operations managers informed by telephone at home
First heavy rainfall recorded by a raingauge in the catchment
Duty manager arrives at the incident room
Briefing of duty manager completed; discussions with the town
emergency planning officer. Operations manager arrives.
Emergency workforce instructed to deploy to Newtown
Flood warning threshold levels reached; flood warning formally
issued to the properties at risk, the local authority and police; loud
hailer patrol started
Emergency workforce completes closing of the two flood gates in
Newtown
Hydrometry team deployed to Newtown gauge for high flow spot
gaugings
On-site briefing between local authority and police representatives, and the emergency workforce
Flood incident declared; police control centre established, designated evacuation centre opened, social service and voluntary staff
called onto site
Duty weather forecaster informs flood warning duty officer that
rainfall should stop in the catchment within the next 2030
minutes
Completion of evacuation of the 125 properties likely to be
affected; nursing home evacuated
Area likely to be affected cleared of all people and vehicles; main
access roads closed to the public. Sandbagging of properties completed where feasible
Flood waters start to overtop river banks
Flood levels reach a maximum depth of 1 m; 25 properties
affected; hydrometry team completes highest flow gauging
achieved to date at Newtown gauge
Flood levels falling rapidly at Newtown gauge; local authority
advised that the flood threat is receeding
Fig. 10.2 Illustration of a flood event timeline up to the time that flood levels start to drop from
peak values
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Fig. 10.3 Helicopter rescue in main street of Boscastle (Pam Durrant; text based on
a description by Heulyn Lewis, North Cornwall District Council)
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10.2
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Managing assets and resources for current and projected future demands
Keeping the public and other affected parties informed through internet or
intranet mapping systems
Establishing one element of an audit trail
Supporting the transition to recovery with a baseline database that also integrates
a full picture of the emergency itself
The Shelter Navigation System a map based system which allows authorised
staff to monitor the status of designated shelters during a hurricane, including
keeping track of evacuees, and which allows the public to look up the shelters
closest to their home (South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental
Control).
Surrey Alert a map based system for sharing information during emergencies
of all types, including flooding, in the county of Surrey in the UK. The system
consists of a secure extranet, accessible only to local authorities, the emergency
services and other responders, and a publicly available website, which includes
news, media and travel updates, and the option to show flood warnings in force
on a map. The extranet component includes an emergency contacts database,
information on key facilities (medical, control centers/emergency operations
centres, rest centres etc.), and an incident log, giving times and descriptions for
actions and decisions taken during the event (http://www.surreyalert.info).
Flood Forecasting Systems modern forecasting systems (see Chapter 5) also
increasingly include the facility to map flood inundation in real time, including
239
running what if scenarios (e.g. for defence breaches, and structure operations)
and sometimes the option to generate lists of properties at risk for output to
paper based or automated warning dissemination systems, thereby having many
of the characteristics of a GIS system.
Whilst Geographical Information Systems might be viewed as a simple type of
decision support system, more sophisticated systems are available which provide
guidance on actions to take during an emergency, and these can be used both at the
planning stage and during an event. The level of guidance provided can range from
presentation of information in a range of formats (overlays, visualisation etc.)
through to recommendations on optimum response strategies.
These types of system are used in the oil and gas, chemical and nuclear industries, for example, and often combine the outputs from sophisticated computer
models (e.g. of gas dispersion) with optimisation algorithms or logical rules (for
example, IF the spill is ACID and the ACID is in the GASEOUS state THEN..),
and links to external databases on equipment characteristics and histories, personnel records, emergency checklists and other information. Recent developments in
this area include the use of probabilistic techniques, and artificial intelligence methods, such as artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms. Internet
based applications are also being investigated, allowing decision support/expert
systems to learn and update rules from the vast amount of information available
on the world wide web.
Several systems of this type are also under development for use in flood emergency applications, although their use is not yet widespread. The base data (static
data) can include information on:
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Systems may include data gathering and modelling components, or import this information from external sources, such as flood forecasting models, telemetry systems, and
dynamic traffic flow models. Dynamic scenarios have the advantage of making use of
the latest information, with the potential disadvantages of lack of real time information
due to communications failures, model uncertainties, and the risk of models failing to
operate correctly, or outputs being misinterpreted by non-experts. Alternatively, stored
scenarios may be used, and have the advantage that many more options can be considered than would be feasible during a flood event (e.g. for defence/levee/dike breaches,
time of day or day of week, or traffic routing), possibly also using more sophisticated
modelling approaches (e.g. two-dimensional rather than one-dimensional flood models). Scenarios can also be reviewed and audited before use in a real event although, as
in many aspects of flood modelling, with the difficulty of a lack of calibration and validation data for the more extreme events (e.g. mass evacuations, widespread flooding).
Perhaps the most widespread application which has been considered to date has been
for evacuation planning and management. The aim of evacuation modules is to provide
guidance on how to optimise the number of people who leave an area in a given time,
taking account of the likely delays due to weight of traffic, and routes and safe havens
becoming inaccessible due to flood water, together with the access requirements of the
emergency services. For example, in the USA, systems which are available (e.g. Fu
2004; Wolshon et al. 2005) include:
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Table 10.1 Examples of research and operational decision support tools for flood event
management
Features or
Project
Country
applications
Reference
ANFAS
DAMAID
FLIWAS
GDH
NISFCDR
OSIRIS
China, France,
Slovakia,
Greece, UK
Portugal
The Netherlands,
Germany,
Ireland
The Netherlands
China
PACTES
France, Poland,
Germany
France
PREVIEW
Europe-wide
RAMFLOOD
Spain, Germany,
Greece and
three others
China
Web GIS
Flood forecasting
component
Prastacos
et al. (2004)
Dam break
forecasts
See Box 10.2
Rodrigues
et al. (2006)
See Box 10.2
Stored scenarios
Flood forecasting
component
Scenarios
Flood forecasting
component
All hazards
system
Artificial neural
network
Emergency
levee repairs
Erlich (2007)
PREVIEW (2007)
http://www.
cimne.upc.
es/ramflood/
Zhou et al. (2004)
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Box 10.2 provides a more detailed description for the FLIWAS system, developed as part of a major collaborative study between several organisations in the
Netherlands, Germany and Ireland.
Fig. 10.4 Flood defence overtopping (FLIWAS News, August 2007, http://www.
noah-interreg.net/)
243
The baseline information required includes data on the geometry and condition of flood defences, action plans, key contacts within organisations,
flood hazard maps, and information on properties at risk, critical locations
such as hospitals and nursing homes, livestock, transport and diversion routes
(e.g. railways), emergency response assets (e.g. sand depots, machinery, fire
trucks), and sites with dangerous substances.
The system is generic with the first modules to be developed covering generation and monitoring of calamity plans, resource management (people,
equipment etc.), damage and casualty assessment, and evacuation planning.
(continued)
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The issue of how to present and handle uncertainty is also increasingly being
considered, with one related example being the applications for optimisation of
hydropower operations discussed in Chapter 8. More generally, flood related
decision support systems might be linked with information systems managed by
other organisations, such as traffic management, communications, and power
supply systems, and guidance provided on likely consequential effects from failure of any component (e.g. traffic hold-ups, cell phone failures, power cuts).
10.3
One of the challenges in responding to a flood event is the uncertainty both in current conditions, and what will happen next. The need to appraise recipients of the
uncertainty in warnings is also widely emphasised (e.g. World Meteorological
Organisation 1994; Emergency Management Australia 1999; Martini and De Roo
2007). Some typical sources of uncertainty which have been discussed in other
chapters include:
Flood risk uncertainty in the locations at risk from flooding (see Chapter 1)
Detection uncertainty in observations and forecasts of rainfall and other meteorological conditions, river levels, tidal levels, river flows, reservoir levels etc.
(see Chapter 2)
Flood forecasts uncertainty in estimates for the likely magnitude, timing and
extent of flooding, particularly for extreme events outside recent experience (see
Chapters 58)
For the flood response component, there can be additional uncertainties in the specific risks to people and property during an event, in how people will respond to
warnings, and in which secondary risks, such as power failures or communication
breakdowns, might occur. Time of day or year is also a factor, with people better
able to cope with flooding on a warm, summer day than in winter, and to respond
to warnings during daytime than in the middle of the night. Factors such as traffic
flows, numbers of properties occupied, and the ability to contact people, will also
vary within and outside normal business hours.
245
Flood forecasters in deciding on the accuracy of the forecast, and what message to convey to people who will use the forecast
Expert users who can use probabilistic information directly for input to their
own decision support systems
Emergency response organisations if they have the appropriate skills and training to interpret information on uncertainty
The public who may find some types of probabilistic information useful
For the first user group, flood forecasters, scenario and what if modelling techniques have been widely used for many years, whilst probabilistic and ensemble
forecasting techniques for both river and coastal flood forecasting are actively
under development in several organisations, as discussed in Chapter 5.
For expert users, earlier chapters provide several examples of the use of probabilistic
information to assist in flood response, including for hydropower applications (see
Chapter 8), and emergency management for polder areas in the Netherlands (see
Chapter 3). The basis of the techniques used is often to compare the cost of taking action
with the expected losses if no action is taken. The range of outcomes can be summarised
in a contingency table, as illustrated by the simple example shown in Table 10.2.
If the probability of flooding is p then, over the long term, taking mitigating
action is cost effective if the cost of taking action C is less than pL, or p > C/L. The
so-called cost/loss ratio then provides an indication of the forecast probability
above which action should be taken, with the expectation that following this strategy over a number of events will result in total costs being less than total losses.
More complex formulations can also be devised, for example taking account of
partial mitigation of losses, and the costs which would have been incurred anyway
in the absence of the event (e.g. Pierce et al. 2005).
For flood warning applications, costs and losses are also dependent on lead time;
for example, apart from the risk to life, it is usually more expensive to rescue people
from properties than to evacuate them, and property damage is also usually higher
when people have less time to prepare. Probability thresholds might therefore be
defined for different stages in the run up to an event, perhaps linked to different
flood warning stages (flood watch, flood warning etc.), with cost-loss relationships
changing during the event (e.g. Roulin 2007).
Table 10.2 Decision table for cost loss approach example
Flooding
No flooding
Mitigating action
No mitigating action
Cost (C)
No cost
Cost (C)
Loss (L)
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More generally, a utility or penalty function approach may be taken for situations where costs or losses cannot easily be defined in monetary terms (e.g. intangible losses) or the relationship between costs and losses is more complex. Utility
(sometimes called Value) is a concept widely used by economists, in which typically a numerical score or ranking is given to the required outcomes, based on
expert judgement, and possibly weighting of different outcomes (with weights
elicited from multi-criteria analysis). Functions may be defined in such a way that
severe outcomes, such as a dam overtopping, have exceptional scores, so that the
optimum solution is steered away from or prevented from reaching that situation.
The issue of how to present uncertainty information to emergency responders, and
the public, is a new and developing area and one that has received much attention by
meteorological, hydrological and social and behavioural researchers (e.g. National
Research Council 2006; Demeritt et al. 2007; Demuth et al. 2007). Some conclusions
from these types of study can include (e.g. Environment Agency 2007):
The best way to present information will vary between users, depending on their
interests, technical expertise and roles.
Given the wealth of information available, several alternative types of presentation may be useful, focussing on spatial, site specific and temporal information.
Approaches should be simple and intuitive (at least in the initial stages), although a
demand often arises for more sophisticated approaches as skills and experience
develop.
Forecast products are best developed as a joint exercise between forecasters and
end-users.
In particular, the importance of consultations with end users is often emphasised (e.g.
using focus groups, pilot studies), as is the value of working with probabilistic forecasts operationally to gain an intuitive feel for how to interpret them. In addition,
Collier et al. (2005) note that there is a need to keep a clear distinction between the
needs of hydro-meteorological services and flood emergency operations. In the
former case the interest is in getting the best possible forecast, whereas in the latter
case the interest is in making the best possible decision.
Requirements can range from the wish for a simple yes/no answer on whether
to perform an action, through to the need for a detailed understanding of the risks
involved in taking a decision, and a wish to see all of the information that the forecaster has available, including that on uncertainty in forecasts; for example, in the
following situations:
Mass evacuations an emergency manager needs to balance the risks of an unnecessary evacuation against the risks of failing to evacuate properties if flooding occurs.
There is also the trade off between waiting to make a decision, by which time the
forecast will hopefully be more certain, and the time lost for starting the evacuation.
For hurricane evacuations, the use of cost-loss approaches has been proposed to help
in optimising these time based decisions (e.g. Regnier and Harr 2006).
Flood defence operations in the run up to a flood event, emergency managers may
make decisions on the height to which defences need to be raised (e.g. using sandbags) to protect property or, in extreme situations, may decide to deliberately
247
breach parts of the defence network to flood, for example, agricultural land to protect towns and cities further downstream. The example of the Red River of the
North Flood in 1997 is often quoted as an example of a situation where information
on uncertainty could possibly have changed the course of the event (see Box 10.3)
Box 10.3 Red River of the North Flood, Grand Forks, April 1997
The Red River of the North catchment is located in North Dakota and
Minnesota in the United States and southern Manitoba in Canada. Following
record snowfall in the winter months, the most severe floods since 1826
occurred in April and May 1997 during the spring snowmelt (Glassheim
1997; Krzysztofowicz 2001; National Research Council 2003).
The flood affected the cities of Fargo and Winnipeg, and in particular the
two towns of Grand Forks, North Dakota, and East Grand Forks, Minnesota,
where levees were overtopped and floodwaters reached over 3 miles (5 km)
inland, inundating virtually everything in the twin communities and causing
almost US$4 billion in damages and affecting about 5,000 properties, although
fortunately with no lives lost. Nearly 90% of the area was flooded and three
neighbourhoods were completely destroyed.
Flood predictions were estimated using the seasonal forecasting technique
described in Chapter 8. The first forecast of a major event was issued nearly
2 months before, on February 28, with a peak forecast of just under 49 ft
under average precipitation conditions. This value was subsequently revised
to 50 ft on April 14, then 52 and 54 ft on April 17 and 18. In Grand Forks and
East Grand Forks, a previous major event had reached a peak of just under
49 ft and, based on the available information, city officials decided to prepare
the city for a 52-ft river crest, whilst the actual peak reached exceeded 54 ft
(National Research Council 2003). One comment following the event was
that If someone had told us that these estimates were not an exact science, or
that other countries predict potential river crest heights in probabilities for
various levels, we may have been better prepared. (Glassheim 1997;
Krzysztofowicz 2001).
As with many flood events, post event studies showed a range of technical,
communication and organisational issues which were quickly addressed, and
of course the science of flood forecasting has improved significantly since the
time of that event, including major improvements in flood forecasting
techniques.
However, the event was influential in changing views on including information on uncertainty in forecasts, and on the interactions between forecasters, the
public and decision makers, with one conclusion (National Research Council
2006) being that unclear communication of uncertain forecast information can
hinder decision-making and have significant negative consequences.
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Qualitative guidance, using terms such as may, probably and likely, is also
suggested in some applications, provided that messages also include advice on the
actions to take (e.g. Emergency Management Australia 1999), whilst ISDR (2006),
in the context of all-hazard warning systems, give the examples of using phrases
such as if present conditions continue or that there is an 80% chance
that.
In Chapter 5, it was also noted how some recipients of warnings might, given the
option, choose to receive warnings at lower levels of risk, defined as the combination of probability and consequence, and modern automated flood warning dissemination systems have the capability to target warnings to individual property owners,
if required. Some examples of situations where targeted warnings might be useful
include (e.g. Environment Agency 2007):
Local authorities who can close riverside and coastal footpaths to walkers
Large businesses who can prevent customers parking in areas at risk
Outdoor event organisers who can reschedule or relocate an event
Farmers who can move livestock between fields
Residents in frequent flooding locations who can install flood boards or
sandbags
Emergency managers who can plan staff rotas and check that equipment is
ready
Operators of temporary defences who can mobilise staff and equipment
Hospitals who can reschedule operations and alert staff to the possibility of
flooding
Utility operators who can invoke contingency plans for flood events
Chapter 11
Review
Reviews of flood warning systems are often required following major flood events,
and may form part of a programme of continuous improvement, sometimes linked
to performance targets for different aspects of the system. Performance monitoring
should ideally cover all aspects of the system, including detection, forecasting,
dissemination, and response to warnings, together with feedback from users on
satisfaction with the system. The lessons learned from post event assessments, and
recommendations from regular reviews, can then guide future investments, and provide baseline information for use in economic assessment and prioritisation exercises.
However, improvements need not necessarily require significant investment, and
much can be gained from improving operating procedures, and closer collaboration
between the various participants in the flood warning process, including communities and their representatives. This chapter discusses these various issues, and
highlights some common themes from earlier chapters on ways of improving flood
warning, forecasting and emergency response systems.
11.1
Performance Monitoring
Performance monitoring usually consists of a process of reviews, recommendations, implementation of findings, and continuous assessment to check that recommendations are being acted upon, and improvements are being made. Also, flood
warning services increasingly need to demonstrate the benefits that they bring, and
that improvements are being achieved over time.
Routine reviews may be performed against benchmarks or targets, and of areas
which may have changed since the time of the last review (key staff, equipment,
procedures etc.). As noted in Chapter 9, regular tests and exercises can also help to
identify problems, and keep staff trained in use of systems. Reviews can be
performed for individual flood warning schemes, or on a regional, national, organisational, or multi-agency basis.
Many organisations also routinely perform formal reviews of performance after
major flood events, and sometimes near misses, both to answer immediate questions
from the public, media, and politicians, and to identify improvements for the future.
K. Sene, Flood Warning, Forecasting and Emergency Response,
Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2008
249
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11 Review
Two high profile examples were the various reports following Hurricane Katrina in
August 2005 (e.g. US House of Representatives 2006) and the December 2004
Tsunami event (e.g. ISDR 2006).
Ideally, each study should refer back to previous studies, and a record should be
maintained of findings over the years, which can be referred to periodically to
check that issues are not being overlooked, including changes which may influence
flood response and flood warnings (e.g. to flood defences, instrumentation, control
structures etc.). Some topics which are often covered in post event or lessons
learned reports include:
The precise topics covered will depend on the scope of the review and organisational responsibilities. The review may also include interviews with residents, the
emergency services and community representatives, and the findings from site visits to survey flood boundaries, and to inspect structures and flood defences.
Routine assessments may involve workshops and research studies to share best
practice, annual reporting against targets, and independent reviews of performance
both within the organisation, and externally in collaboration with other emergency
response organisations. Some questions on the content and delivery of messages
might include (Emergency Management Australia 1999):
251
For example, in England and Wales, surveys of flood warning recipients are commissioned both annually, and after major events, to determine how many people
received flood warnings, and what their opinion was of the information provided.
Targets, performance measures, indicators and/or benchmarks are another way
of driving improvements to performance, and are identified as an important component in flood warning systems, and disaster management systems generally
(e.g. Handmer et al. 2001; Elliott et al. 2003; Andryszewski et al. 2005; Basher
2006). Some high level targets might be that there should be little or no loss of
life from flood events, and that damages and disruption from flooding should be
minimised.
More specific performance measures may relate to the individual components
in the flood warning process, such as the Accuracy, Reliability and Timeliness of
flood warnings, the number of properties receiving flood warnings, flood forecasting accuracy, the frequency of emergency response exercises, the performance of
flood emergency plans, and the number of health and safety incidents. Chapter 3
presents some examples of statistical and other approaches to assessing the performance of flood warnings, including contingency measures such as the
Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Ratios, whilst Chapter 5 discusses a
range of flood forecasting model performance measures. Various social response
factors may also be considered, related to the ability of people to respond to flood
warnings, their satisfaction with the warning service provided, and awareness of
actions to take.
When considering lead time targets, the values which are selected typically
depend on the type of flooding anticipated, and the detection, forecasting and
response systems which are available. For example, for tropical cyclones, typhoons
and hurricanes, events may become apparent several days in advance, and warnings
may be issued with 24 hours or more of notice. For coastal surge events from widespread, less intense storms, a few hours or more may be possible whilst, for flash
floods, sometimes only a few minutes might be available. However, for the flash
flood example, small numbers of people in a mountain village might only need a
short time to move to the safety of higher ground whilst, for the tropical cyclone,
typhoon and hurricane example, a major evacuation of residents might take a day
or more. The speed and effectiveness of the response will also depend on the efficiency of dissemination systems, the local capabilities of emergency services, and
on public awareness about how to respond to warnings. In estimating timeliness
(i.e. the time between issue and receipt of a warning), the various time delays in the
system also need to be accounted for as described in Chapters 5 and 9.
False alarm rates are another measure where views on acceptable values differ
widely (e.g. Barnes et al. 2007). If events only happen infrequently, then the occasional false alarm may be viewed as beneficial as a way of maintaining public
awareness, and rehearsing and testing emergency response systems (e.g. Emergency
Management Australia 1999). Similarly, if a property floods frequently, the owner
may have well rehearsed procedures to protect the building (e.g. installing flood
boards, moving vehicles), and view the occasional false alarm as a small price to
pay for being able to continue living at that location. The analogy is sometimes
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drawn with other types of warnings, such as fire alarms and bomb alerts, where
there can be a high public tolerance to occasional testing of systems and other false
alarms (provided that the reasons are explained). However, if the action on receiving
a warning is a widespread evacuation, or closing down of critical or expensive
installations (e.g. oil refineries), then a low false alarm rate is often desirable. False
alarms are caused in part by the various uncertainties in the detection, forecasting
and warning process, and this topic is discussed in more detail in Chapter 10.
When defining targets or performance indicators, the usual approach is to
consider each stage in the flood warning, forecasting and emergency response process,
and to devise suitable indicators of performance. Overall performance might then
be assessed using summary tables or graphs, or by combining values using weighting
or multi-criteria approaches. The information obtained can also help in understanding
the areas in which future investment will be most beneficial (see Section 11.2).
However, the choices made should consider the feasibility of collecting the supporting information required, the likely effort and costs, and how realistic it will be
maintain the performance monitoring system over a period of years. Also, whether
the best approach is to collect high quality information for a small number of indicators, or more comprehensive but less complete information across a larger
number. Many different indicators could potentially be envisaged; for example,
some possible descriptors considered in one research study included preparedness, forecasting, warning and promoting response, other communication, coordination, media
management, equipment provision, environmental damage, economic damage, injuries,
loss of life, victim trauma and reputation (Environment Agency 2007).
The concept of levels of service might also be introduced as a way of monitoring
performance and assisting with the design of flood warning systems. For example,
for England and Wales, the Environment Agency (Andryszewski et al. 2005) uses
this approach to ensure consistency in the implementation of flood warning
schemes, and that schemes are prioritised according to risk, calculated from the
probability of flooding and the number of properties at risk. The approach defines
maximum, intermediate and minimum levels of service provision in the following
areas according to the level of risk:
Some studies have also used reliability analysis techniques of the type described
briefly in Chapter 9 to examine the various trade offs between indicators such
as flood warning lead times, the success rate of warnings, and false alarm rates.
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11.2
Performance Improvements
Post event reviews, and regular performance monitoring, can lead to a range of recommendations for improvement, which might include:
In the integrated or total flood warning system approach, all components need to be
improved if the ultimate aim of minimising risks to people and property is to be
achieved (e.g. Emergency Management Australia 1999; Andryszewski et al. 2005).
More general requirements may also be identified at an organisational or
national level; for example, the need to extend the flood warning service to new
locations, to introduce greater consistency in procedures, and to provide warnings
for additional types of flooding, such as urban flooding, or for fast response
catchments. The decision may also be made to introduce or improve flood warning targets and improved performance monitoring systems to help to drive future
improvements. International reviews and comparisons may also highlight potential changes; for example, Parker et al. (1994) used the following 14 criteria to
compare flood forecasting, warning and response systems (FFWRS) between
several European countries: flood warning philosophy, dominance of forecasting
vs warning, application of technology to FFWRS, geographical coverage, laws
relating to FFWRS, content of warning messages to public, methods of disseminating flood warning, attitudes to freedom of risk/hazard information, public
education about warnings, knowledge of FFWRS effectiveness, dissemination of
lessons learned, performance targets and monitoring, national standards, and
organisational culture.
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Opportunities may also exist to widen the scope of the flood warning service
into other types of forecasting and warning, and to share costs with other organisations or departments with common interests. For example, the requirement for real
time monitoring of rivers and coastal waters is often shared by other groups with
an interest in, or responsibility for, managing water resources, pollution incidents,
navigation etc. Similarly, integrated catchment forecasting models can be used for
forecasting across the full range of flows, including drought forecasting (see
Chapter 8, for example), whilst the requirements for decision support systems, GIS
systems, dissemination systems, and other emergency response equipment are common to many types of natural and technological hazard.
The range of possible areas for improvement is huge and it is only possible to
discuss a few common themes here. The various guidelines and reviews cited in
previous sections and chapters provide more information on potential ways of
improving aspects of the flood warning, forecasting and emergency response
process.
11.2.1
Detection
Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) making high flow gaugings more
feasible during flood events to assist with the subsequent development of stage
discharge relationships
Nowcasting improved techniques for high resolution short term rainfall
forecasts
Ensemble forecasting probabilistic estimates of rainfall, river flows, surge and
other variables
Remote sensing improvements in accuracy and resolution, and the range of
parameters which can be monitored by satellite, and increased availability
of products
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Forecasting systems improvements in the functionality and usability of systems for running forecasting models, and for interfacing to other systems
Some emerging technologies, such as low cost sensor networks, disdrometers for
rainfall measurement, and remote techniques for measuring river velocity (and
hence flow), also show potential (see Chapter 2).
Resilience is also an important factor in flood warning applications, and Chapter
2 highlights the need to ensure that instruments are sited in locations where they
will not be damaged by flood water or debris, and with electronic equipment above
likely flood levels. Backup instruments and telemetry can also be provided at the
same site (e.g. for raingauges and coastal instrumentation) or further upstream (for
river level or flow gauges). Issues of site access during flood events also need to be
considered, and the health and safety of staff.
11.2.2
Thresholds
Flood warning thresholds define the conditions (or criteria) under which flood
warnings are issued (or considered for issue) and are described in Chapter 3.
Although values may be defined based on past experience, and sometimes by
sophisticated computer modelling, post event reviews and performance monitoring
may show the need for improvement. Some indicators of the possible need to revise
thresholds include:
Missed warnings problems with not issuing warnings when flooding occurs,
or after the start of flooding, may require a detailed investigation into the likely
causes and areas for improvement (e.g. in instrumentation, threshold levels,
forecasting models)
False alarms an unacceptable rate of false alarms may indicate that thresholds
are too conservative or, possibly, that an acceptable success rate is only possible
at the expense of a high false alarm rate
Insufficient lead time problems with warnings being issued later than would
ideally be required for an effective emergency response
Some approaches to increasing lead times include the use of new or improved flood
forecasting models, additional thresholds on gauges upstream or distant from the
flood risk area (preferably whilst continuing to maintain the existing thresholds)
and, possibly, adjusting existing thresholds so that they achieve more lead time,
whilst still maintaining an acceptable false alarm rate. All adjustments to thresholds
need to be made with care, and fully tested and documented before implementation,
preferably also consulting with those affected to confirm that the approach is
acceptable. More sophisticated approaches might also be considered, including use
of computer modelling to support the development and testing of thresholds, probabilistic techniques, and other methods (see Chapter 3). Improvements can also aim
to reduce the various time delays in the detection, dissemination and response process
(see Chapter 5) through improved systems, procedures, and training.
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11.2.3
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Dissemination
The principles for issuing flood warnings are similar to those in many other areas
of risk communication and Chapters 4 and 10 discuss this topic. Some key points
to consider (e.g. Emergency Management Australia 1999; Drabek 2000; Handmer
et al. 2001; Martini and de Roo 2007), beyond the need for warnings to be accurate,
reliable and timely, and reach the intended recipients, include:
To give people time to prepare and plan for flooding, warnings should be staged
(if there is time), starting from advisory/watch/warning alerts (or similar), before
escalating to a full warning
Messages should be consistent, clear and concise, and tailored to the audience,
ideally in their own language
Messages should be specific about the threat; for example in terms of flood timing, depth, duration etc.
Messages should also include advice on actions to take to protect people and
property, and distinguish between forecasts and warnings
Messages should be received from a single, authoritative (and trusted) source,
whilst acknowledging that in practice people may seek information from multiple sources, both formal and informal, before deciding to act
Multiple means of dissemination should be used in case of failure in any one
route, and to improve the effectiveness of response
New technologies are also increasing the range of methods which can be used,
allowing better targeting of warnings, and reducing the time taken to issue warnings. Some recent developments include:
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Remotely activated barriers and electronic road signs for roads and footpaths
Low cost battery free radios and satellite transmission of warnings
11.2.4
Forecasting
Improvements to flood forecasting can focus on improving existing models, developing new models, and improving the robustness and speed of operation of models.
Performance monitoring techniques can also be used to guide future improvements
(see Chapter 5).
Changes to existing models can include recalibrating models to account for
recent flood events, or changes to instrumentation, flood defences, river channels,
and coastal conditions, and adding in new functionality. Where new models are to
be developed, the opportunity may also be taken to try out new modelling techniques;
for example, using different types of model, or introducing data assimilation and
probabilistic techniques. Such changes may also be linked to improvements to
forecasting systems.
Opportunities may also arise to combine models across a number of flood warning schemes; for example, using an integrated catchment approach. A spin-off benefit from this approach is often that the need to consider the catchment as whole
may suggest improvements to instrumentation that would not otherwise be obvious
from examination of records for single gauges.
The choice of models should be appropriate to the level of risk and a range of other
factors, and various guidelines are available to help in deciding on an appropriate
approach (e.g. World Meteorological Organisation 1994; USACE 1996; Environment
Agency 2002, 2004). For example, Tilford et al. (2007) describe a structured approach
to the selection of river forecasting models which considers:
The method uses a combination of flowcharts, risk assessment matrices and cost
benefit analyses to decide on an appropriate choice of model. The modelling
options provided include empirical, data-based, conceptual and process-based models
for a range of river modelling problems (e.g. floodplains, reservoirs, structures, snowmelt,
tidal influences). The method also includes consideration of a range of practical
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issues, such as how long it might take to install instrumentation, the level of modelling
expertise needed, and the need for additional exploratory investigations. Throughout,
room is left for expert judgement and the method avoids being prescriptive in the
choice of modelling solution.
11.2.5
Preparedness
Techniques for developing flood emergency plans are well established (see Chapter 9),
with issues such as inter-agency collaboration, a clear chain of command, interoperability of equipment, team typing and other factors increasingly emphasised,
together with the involvement of communities and their representatives in formulating
plans. The needs of vulnerable groups in particular need to be considered.
Increasingly, an all-hazards approach is being adopted by many organisations,
providing benefits of scale and allowing plans to be rehearsed more frequently.
For plans to remain effective, they need to be regularly rehearsed and reviewed
and updated. The issue of resilience is also important for all aspects of the flood
warning process, and probabilistic and risk based approaches from other sectors
may become more widely used in future in assessing potential points of failure.
Information technology also provides the opportunity for more realistic training
exercises, combining multimedia simulations, and animation of flood extents in computer models of towns and cities. Geographical Information Systems can also help during the planning phase in examining how access routes, infrastructure, key facilities and
other factors will be influenced by flood water, and in refining risk assessments.
11.2.6
Response
Previous chapters have discussed the important of clear presentation of flood warnings
(Chapter 4), active engagement by communities (Chapter 9), and the use of a range of
approaches for providing information to people (e.g. ISDR 2006; United Nations
2006a). A clear statement can also help with understanding the objectives of a flood
warning and forecasting system; for example (Defra 2004) that:
Flood warning is the provision of advance warning of conditions that are likely
to cause flooding to property and a potential risk to life. The main purpose of flood
warning is to save life by allowing people, support and emergency services time to
prepare for flooding. The secondary purpose is to reduce the effects and damage of
flooding. This might include moving property to a safer location such as upstairs or
putting in place temporary measures to prevent floodwater entering properties such
as flood boards or sandbags. In addition flood warning informs operating authorities
who need to take action such as closing floodgates or other control structures in
advance of flooding conditions.
Although local authorities and emergency services can take many actions to
reduce or mitigate flooding, ultimately, if flooding does occur, then the success of
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the warnings issued will also depend on residents understanding the risks from
flooding and taking appropriate actions in time to protect people and property.
Some principles which can improve the success of flood warning systems (Handmer
2001; Betts 2003) include:
The publics access to both formal and informal sources of warning information
The value of shared understanding between the public and emergency managers about the warning message and process
Inter-organisation cooperation
The recognition of local needs
Other causes include building collapse and related circumstances (e.g. mobile
homes, campsites), being swept away, falling down manholes or similar, and being
trapped in buildings or vehicles. For example, Jonkman and Kelman (2005) suggest
that drowning in vehicles seems to be a worse problem in the US than in Europe,
and that significant numbers of flood deaths are attributable to unnecessary risky
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behaviour, whilst in Australia almost 10% of flood related deaths result from people
trying to retrieve property or animals. Some estimates (e.g. Henson 2001) suggest
that about half of all flash flood related deaths in the USA occur to people in vehicles.
Risks can be reduced by raising public awareness on the dangers of driving through
flood water, precautionary closing of roads in advance of flooding, and dissemination
techniques aimed specifically at drivers, such as digital radio alerts, and remotely
or locally activated barriers or electronic signs (see Chapter 4). Flood risk assessments
may also need to account for flow velocities since this can be a significant factor in
whether vehicles are swept away by floodwater.
For the particular example of non-residential properties (e.g. shops, businesses,
factories), some criteria for the effectiveness of flood warnings which have been
proposed (Defra 2005) include:
To help deal with the complexity of a flood event, Decision Support Systems and
Geographical Information Systems can also assist emergency managers in assessing
risks, improving situational awareness, sharing information between people and
organisations, automated logging of actions, and (in some cases) providing guidance
on optimum decisions, such as the requirements for evacuating properties. Hand held
units may also be used by staff on site to view locally relevant information.
Probabilistic and cost loss approaches may also provide one way of optimising decisions to take account of uncertainties in factors such as flooding extent, flooding
impact, and the response of individuals to flooding.
Again, as with all other improvements, resilience needs to be considered from
flooding and associated rainfall and high winds etc., together with staff training,
interoperability of systems, and a range of other factors (see Chapter 9).
11.3
Prioritising Investment
The outcome from regular or post event reviews is often a series of recommendations, some of which may require investment in new equipment, procedures and
other resources. The requirements to justify expenditure vary widely between
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organisations, but there will often be a need to consider where priorities lie, and the
relative costs of different options. Some techniques which can be used for prioritising
investment include:
Cost benefit analysis in which costs are compared to the estimated benefits
from improving flood warnings
Multi-criteria analysis which uses a range of weighting techniques across a
number of factors to rank the relative merits of proposals
Risk based approaches in which investment is targeted to the areas of greatest
risk, taking account of factors such as the frequency of flooding, the number of
people affected, risk to life, risk to critical infrastructure, or the risk of flow control structures not being operated effectively
Each method has its advantages and limitations. For example, cost benefit analyses
focus mainly on the economic aspects of investment, and it can be difficult to bring
in other more intangible quantities, such as loss of life and the long-term health
costs from people affected by flooding who, with sufficient warning, might have
moved to safety. People may also place more value on saving personal items (documents, memorablia etc.) and domestic animals and pets than on high cost items.
By contrast, Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) methods do not consider the economic case in detail, and are more subjective in the way that decisions are
reached, although can easily be combined with economic analyses. Other priorities may also influence the overall decision, such as pressure from local residents
and politicians to improve flood warning schemes, and reputational issues,
related to not having issued a warning before an event, or high false alarm rates.
Risk based approaches are also often incorporated into the other two techniques,
as described later.
The scope of the economic analysis also needs to be defined; for example, flood
warning is increasingly seen as a key aspect of overall flood risk management, or
one component in a multi-hazard approach. Economic analyses may therefore need
to be tied into a wider assessment covering flood defences, development on floodplains, catchment management and risks from sources other than flooding. Other
complicating factors can include situations where the costs and/or benefits are
accrued by different organisations, some of which may be outside the flood warning
process, and in trans-national river basins, where several countries may participate
in the flood warning scheme. Sensitivity studies, or probabilistic techniques, may
also be used to help to account for uncertainty in inundation extents, depths, velocities and impacts.
11.3.1
Cost benefit analysis is widely used in a number of fields, including flood risk
management (e.g. ISDR 2006; World Meteorological Organisation 2007), and has
also been applied to flood warning systems. The cost element is built up from
systematic analysis of the individual (unit) costs of the items which make up the
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system, whilst benefits are typically estimated in terms of the damage avoided due
to issuing flood warnings. Some approaches also attempt to assign values to lives
saved, for example in terms of lifetime earnings, or compensation payments,
although this is a problematic area which is often excluded from the analysis.
The scope of the analysis will depend on the level at which financial decisions
are made, and could be just for an individual department or organisation, or
across a number of organisations. Analyses can also be at the scale of individual
flood warning schemes, regional systems, or at national level. Care is needed to
avoid double counting of benefits when considering multiple schemes and
organisations.
Depending on the objectives of the analysis, the cost element of the analysis can
consist of a wide range of items, including:
Depending on the scope of the analysis, staff costs may just relate to the flood
warning and forecasting service, or extend more widely into the emergency services, and local authorities, and businesses. Future investments also need to be converted to a common basis; for example using net present value techniques.
Additional costs, such as those incurred in taking mitigating actions (e.g. temporary
closing of businesses), may also need to be considered.
Estimates for the benefits from flood warnings usually focus on the damage
avoided to property by moving items to safety, and perhaps through preventing
flooding by installing temporary measures in time, such as flood boards, or sandbags.
Some techniques for estimating potential damages include (e.g. World Meteorological
Organisation 2007):
These methods all have various advantages and limitations; for example, information on previous floods may be incomplete, or biased by the approach used to
collect data, whilst unit area approaches may be more suitable for commercial
properties than residential properties. The percentage of property value approach
uses data which is widely available, but it may be difficult to separate out land
values from building values. Also, building contents can vary widely, particularly
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for commercial properties, whilst the average annual damage method requires long
term reliable information on flooding histories and damages. Various combined and
synthetic approaches are also used.
The benefit from flood warnings are often separated into direct and indirect (or
intangible) losses in a number of areas; for example (USACE 1996):
Here, flood fighting means taking actions to reduce flooding, such as repairing
breaches, clearing channels of debris, sandbagging etc. USACE (1994) additionally notes the benefits arising from a number of other factors, including temporary flood proofing of properties, reductions to recovery costs, and temporary
suspension of industrial and other processes. Many of these items can in principle be estimated, although some with difficulty due to lack of data and other
problems, such as the loss of life issue referred to earlier. Values may also
depend on factors such as weather conditions (temperature, wind chill etc.), the
time of day that the warning is received, and the time elapsed since the last flood
(e.g. World Meteorological Organisation 1973). More detailed discussions of
methods for estimating flood warning benefits can be found in World
Meteorological Organisation (1973), USACE (1994), Carsell et al. (2004), and
Parker et al. (2005).
In flood warning applications, the annual average damage approach is perhaps
the most widely used method. For general classes of property (both residential and
commercial), annual average damage curves can be estimated for a range of flood
depths and, possibly, velocities. These values can be estimated from post event data
across a number of flood events and types/ages of property, and from demographic
characteristics, although there can be considerable uncertainty in the estimates
derived (e.g. Merz et al. 2004). Values can also be probability weighted by integrating damage-depth and depth-frequency curves.
For example, a common approach is to assess typical depth (stage) damage relationships for various classes of property, and then to assess the reductions in damage for different flood warning lead times, as illustrated in Fig. 11.1 for a specific
community and lead time.
Studies of this type have shown that, as might be expected, the damage avoided
increases with increasing lead time up to a point of diminishing returns, beyond
which any additional lead time becomes of little benefit in reducing damages. Other
benefits might also be included, such as the damage avoided by operating flow
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control structures, or installing temporary defences (barriers, flood boards, sandbags etc.) to protect communities or individual properties.
For example, in England and Wales, the following equation (CNS Scientific and
Engineering Services 1991; Parker et al. 2005; Tilford et al. 2007) forms the basis
of the method used to estimate flood warning benefits from reductions in damage
to residential property and road vehicles:
FDA = R x Pi x Pa x Pc x PFDA
where:
FDA = Flood Damages Avoided
PFDA = Potential Flood Damages Avoided
R = Service Effectiveness
Pi = Probability that the individual will be available to be warned
Pa = Probability that the individual is physically able to respond
Pc = Probability that the individual knows how to respond effectively
The Service Effectiveness is the proportion of properties which were sent a flood
warning whilst the Potential Flood Damages Avoided is calculated from the average
annual damages (AAD) as follows:
PFDA = DR x C x AAD
Here, DR (the Damage Reduction factor) is the proportion of damages which
can realistically be avoided by flood warning (since some damage is unavoidable),
and depends on warning lead time, and C is the Coverage of the flood warning
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service (i.e. the proportion of properties which receive a flood warning service).
An alternative version (e.g. Environment Agency 2002; Tilford et al. 2007)
includes an allowance for the costs of mitigating actions by property owners;
for example, when taking time off work to protect properties. Similar techniques can in principle also be used for commercial properties, although some
sites may need to be considered on a case by case basis (e.g. major chemical
works, oil refineries, distribution warehouses etc.).
In addition to providing a basis for estimating flood warning benefits, the various factors also provide a focus for improvements to individual components in
the flood warning service. For example, in England and Wales, the 2012/13 target
values are in the range 8090% for most parameters except for the Damage
Reduction factor (e.g. Parker et al. 2005). Additional factors are used to monitor
progress in the percentage of people making preparations in advance of flooding
(e.g. individual flood plans), and the proportion of people at risk signing up for a
direct flood warning service. Progress is assessed through post event reviews,
independent market surveys of flood warning recipients, and other approaches.
However, the extent to which improvements are possible depends in part on the
nature of the flood risk in individual locations, the scope to take actions to prevent
flooding, how frequently flooding occurs, and socioeconomic and other factors.
Computer simulation tools of the type described in Chapter 10 might also be used
to explore the effectiveness of improvements to individual components, including
social, vulnerability, psychological and policy aspects (e.g. Simonovic and
Ahmad 2005).
Many social and behavioural studies have also been performed into losses from
factors other than damage to property, and on the general effectiveness of flood
warnings, including studies on loss of life (Jonkman and Kelman 2005), public
response to flood warnings (Drabek 2000; Pfister 2002), health impacts (Parker
et al. 2005), and risks to people in vehicles (e.g. Henson 2001). Other examples
include studies on the real time assessment of hurricane losses (Dixon et al. 2006),
and the benefits from flood forecasting for reservoir flood control and short and
long term flood forecasting (National Hydrologic Warning Council 2002).
Various estimates have also been derived for the damage reduction component of
flood warnings, with values typically in the range from a few percent to 3040% or
more (e.g. ISDR 2006; World Meteorological Organisation 1989; Parker et al. 2005).
However, care is needed in interpreting estimates to see which types of losses have
been included in the analysis, and the various other assumptions made. For example,
some studies have focussed mainly on the monetary benefits to residential property
owners, and much less is known about intangible benefits, and the varying reasons
why some people do not take effective action even after receiving a warning.
11.3.2
Rather than working in monetary terms, multi criteria analyses aim to evaluate a
range of options against criteria or objectives agreed with key stakeholders, and can
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Risk category for the flood warning area (high, medium, low etc.)
Cost of implementation
Cost per property of implementation
Benefit-cost ratio at a flood warning area level
Views from consultations (e.g. flooding hotspots)
More generally, risk categories can be used as a guide to the choice of appropriate
instrumentation, performance criteria, and flood warning dissemination methods
in a new or upgraded flood warning scheme (e.g. Andryszewski et al. 2005).
Glossary
A
Action Table a table of actions to take as meteorological, river and/or coastal
conditions exceed predefined threshold values
Antecedent Conditions the state of wetness of a catchment prior to an event or
period of simulation (Beven 2001)
Antecdent Precipitation Index the weighted summation of past daily precipitation
amounts, used as an index of soil moisture. The weight given each days precipitation is usually assumed to be an exponential or reciprocal function of time, with the
most recent precipitation receiving the greatest weight (UNESCO/WMO 2007)
Automated Voice Messaging (AVM) automated telephone system for issuing
flood warnings
Automatic Weather Station (AWS) an instrument for automatically measuring climate
data in real time including (typically) wind speed and direction, solar radiation, air temperature, humidity, and rainfall, and possibly other parameters, such as soil temperature
B
Baseflow part of the discharge which enters a stream channel mainly from
groundwater, but also from lakes and glaciers during long periods when no precipitation or snowmelt occurs (UNESCO/WMO 2007)
Basin see Catchment
Black Box Model a model that relates only an input to a predicted output by a
mathematical function or functions without any attempt to describe the processes
controlling the response of the system (Beven 2001)
Boundary Conditions constraints and values of variables required to run a model
for a particular flow domain and time period (Beven 2001)
Business Continuity Management a management process to identify and manage
the hazards or threats which can disrupt the smooth running of an organization or
delivery of a service
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Glossary
C
Calibration adjustment of the parameters of a model, either on the basis of physical
considerations or by mathematical optimization, so that the agreement between the
observed data and estimated output of the model is as good as possible (see Model
Calibration, UNESCO/WMO 2007)
Cascade Warning an approach to dissemination of warnings in which warnings
are passed from one person or organization to others, who in turn pass on the warning following predefined procedures. Includes Call Trees and Telephone Trees
Catchment drainage area of a stream, river or lake, or area having a common
outlet for its surface runoff (see Basin or Catchment, UNESCO/WMO 2007)
Conceptual Hydrological Model simplified mathematical representation of
some or all of the processes in the hydrological cycle by a set of hydrological concepts expressed in mathematical notations and linked together in a time and space
sequence corresponding to that occurring in nature (UNESCO/WMO 2007)
Contingency Table a table usually summarizing the relationship between the
frequencies of occurrence of two or more variables, at the simplest level consisting
of a 2 2 matrix
Cost Benefit Analysis a decision making technique which compares the likely
costs of an action or investment with the expected benefits
Cost Loss Analysis an analysis technique which compares the cost of taking an
action with the likely losses if that action is not taken, which can include dependence on lead time, the influence of only partial protection against losses, and other
factors
D
Damage Avoidance the potential financial benefit from providing a flood warning taking into account the maximum damage which could be avoided and possibly
the costs of property owners acting upon the warning
Data Assimilation the use of current and recent real time observations of meteorological, river and/or coastal conditions to improve a forecast (e.g. a flood
forecast)
Data Collection Platform automatic measuring device with a radio transmitter
to provide contact via a satellite with a reception station (UNESCO/WMO 2007)
Debris Flow/Mud Flow flow of water so heavily charged with earth and debris
that the flowing mass is thick or viscous (UNESCO/WMO 2007). A high-density
mud flow with abundant coarse-grained materials such as rocks, tree trunks, etc.
(IDNDR 1992)
Decision Support System in emergency management, usually a computerized
system for collating and displaying real time information of many types (spatial,
time series, descriptive etc.), and sometimes for advising on optimum decisions
Glossary
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E
Effective Rainfall that part of rainfall which contributes to runoff. In some
procedures the prompt subsurface runoff is entirely excluded from direct runoff and
then effective rainfall is equal to rainfall excess (UNESCO/WMO 2007)
Ensemble Forecast a number of alternative realisations of future meteorological,
river or coastal conditions based on alternative values for initial conditions, model
parameter values etc., which reflect the inherent uncertainties in observations and
forecasting models
Estuary the tidal reaches of a river as it outfalls to the sea, where fresh and sea
water mix. Sometimes called a Delta or River Delta (although this term describes
the sediment deposited by some rivers within the tidal zone)
Evapotranspiration quantity of water transferred from the soil to the atmosphere
by evaporation and plant transpiration (UNESCO/WMO 2007)
F
False Alarm in flood warning applications, a warning which is issued but for
which no subsequent flooding occurs. Can also include near misses
Fetch area in which ocean, lake and reservoir waves are generated by the wind.
The length of the fetch area is measured in the direction of the wind (UNESCO/
WMO 2007)
Finite Difference the approximate representation of a time or space differential in
terms of variables separated by discrete increments in time or space (Beven 2001)
Finite Element the approximate representation of time or space differentials in
terms of integrals of simple interpolation functions involving variables defined at
nodes of an irregular discretization of the flow domain into elements (Beven 2001)
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Glossary
Flash Flood flood of short duration with a relatively high peak discharge
(UNESCO/WMO 2007). Alternatively, a flash flood can be defined as a flood that
threatens damage at a critical location in the catchment, where the time for the
development of the flood from the upstream catchment is less than the time needed
to activate warning, flood defence or mitigation measures downstream of the critical
location. Thus with current technology even when the event is forecast, the achievable
lead-time is not sufficient to implement preventative measures (e.g. evacuation,
erecting of flood barriers) (ACTIF 2004)
Flood Defence, Dike or Levee water-retaining earthwork used to confine streamflow within a specified area along the stream or to prevent flooding due to waves
or tides (UNESCO/WMO 2007). Can be constructed from a range of materials,
including concrete, steel and rockfill
Flood Fighting emergency response operations to reduce or prevent flooding,
including reinforcing flood defences, sandbagging, installation of temporary
defences, and other measures
Flood Forecasting System a computer system for managing the operation of one
or more flood forecasting models, include automated collection and validation of
real time data, post processing of model outputs, and possibly automated alerting
facilities if thresholds are exceeded
Flood Risk Area an area at risk from flooding which may or may not have an
existing warning service and whose extent is typically estimated from historical
information, modeling, or other methods
Flood Risk Assessment an assessment of the likely extent and probability of
flooding at one or more locations
Flood Warning Area an area defined for use in flood warning procedures, within
which people receive flood warnings
Flow Routing (or Flood Routing) a technique used to compute the movement
and change of shape of a flood wave moving through a river reach or a reservoir
(UNESCO/WMO 2007)
Forecasting Point a location at which it is useful to have a forecast of future river
or coastal conditions (e.g. a Flood Warning Area, a river or coastal monitoring site,
a control structure)
Freeboard vertical distance between the normal maximum level of the surface of
a liquid in a conduit, reservoir, tank, canal, etc., and the top of the sides of the
retaining structure (UNESCO/WMO 2007)
G
Geographical Information System computer software for the graphical presentation and analysis of spatial datasets and the associated hardware, procedures,
equipment etc.
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood a flood caused by the sudden release of water from
a lake formed by moraine, ice or similar
Glossary
271
H
Hurricane see Tropical Cyclone
Hydrodynamic Model a solution to the equations expressing mass, momentum
and energy conservation of water, sediment, heat and other parameters in a river,
estuary or coastal reach
Hydrograph graph showing the variation in time of some hydrological data such
as stage, discharge, velocity, sediment load, etc. (UNESCO/WMO 2007)
I
Ice Jam accumulation of ice at a given location which, in a river, restricts the flow
of water (UNESCO/WMO 2007)
Initial Conditions values of storage or pressure variables required to initialize a
model at the start of a simulation period (Beven 2001)
Intangible Losses losses which cannot easily be expressed in economic terms,
including impacts on health, business disruption, stress, impacts on tourism etc.
Isochrone Map map or chart of a drainage basin in which a series of lines
(isochrones) gives the times of travel of water originating on each isochrone to
reach the outlet of the basin (UNESCO/WMO 2007)
K
Kalman Filter a time series analysis technique which seeks to provide an improved
forecast of future conditions accounting for differences between previous observations
and forecasts. Also extended Kalman Filter and ensemble Kalman Filter variants
L
Lead Time warning lead time is the time between receipt of a flood warning and
the time of the onset of flooding; forecast lead time is the maximum lead time at
which forecasts can be provided to an acceptable accuracy
Levee see Flood Defence
M
Monte Carlo Simulation simulation involving multiple runs of a model using different
randomly chosen sets of parameter values or boundary conditions (Beven 2001)
Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) a structured decision making technique
widely used for evaluating alternative options where multiple criteria and priorities are involved, perhaps including social, environmental, financial, political and
other factors
272
Glossary
N
Nowcast a meteorological modelling technique which combines the outputs from
weather radar observations and possibly Numerical Weather Prediction model
outputs to produce short term (typically 06 hour ahead) forecasts of rainfall and
other parameters
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) computer modelling technique in which
the atmosphere, oceans and land surface are modelled on a three dimensional grid
to produce forecasts of future conditions based on data assimilated from a wide
range of sources (ground based observations, satellite, ships, aircraft etc.)
O
Objective Function a measure of how well a simulation fits the available observations (Beven 2001)
Orographic Precipitation precipitation caused by the ascent of moist air over
orographic barriers (UNESCO/WMO 2007)
P
Parameter a constant that must be defined before running a simulation (Beven 2001)
Polder a mostly low-lying area artificially protected from surrounding water and
within which the water table can be controlled (UNESCO/WMO 2007)
Process Based Model models which to varying degrees solve the partial differential
equations representing catchment and coastal processes, typically on a gridded
basis, perhaps including empirical or conceptual representations for some components
of the model
Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) the telecommunications equipment
and infrastructure which connects land line telephones
Q
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts precipitation (rainfall, snow, hail etc.) forecasts typically based on nowcasting or Numerical Weather Prediction techniques
R
Rainfall Runoff Model a model which converts observed or forecast rainfall into
estimated river flows
Rating Curve see Stage Discharge relationship
Real Time Updating see Data Assimilation
River Gauging Station a measuring location where observations of water level
(river, reservoir) and discharge are made
Glossary
273
S
Saffir/Simpson five categories indicating the damage potential of tropical
cyclones (Holland et al. 2007)
Set-Up water forced inshore by breaking waves (Holland et al. 2007)
Situation Report a brief report that is published and updated periodically
during a relief effort and which outlines the details of the emergency, the needs
generated and the responses undertaken by all donors as they become known
(IDNDR 1992)
Snow Pillow device filled with antifreeze solution and fitted with a pressure sensor
which indicates the water equivalent of the snow cover (UNESCO/WMO 2007)
Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) a state variable used in many hydrological models as an
expression of water storage. SMD is zero when the soil is at field capacity and gets larger
as the soil dries out. It is usually expressed in units of depth of water (Beven 2001)
Stage Discharge Relationship or Stage Discharge Relation relation between
stage and discharge at a river cross section and which may be expressed as a curve,
table or equation(s) (UNESCO/WMO 2007)
Stochastic a model is stochastic if, for a given set of initial and boundary conditions, it may have a range of possible outcomes, often with each outcome associated with an estimated probability (Beven 2001)
Surge or Storm Surge a sudden rise of sea as a result of high winds and low
atmospheric pressure; sometimes called a storm tide, storm wave, or tidal wave.
Generally affects only coastal areas but may intrude some distance inland
(IDNDR 1992)
Swell smooth, regularly spaced waves that have propagated long distances from
their initial generation region (Holland et al. 2007)
T
Threshold the meteorological, river or coastal conditions or forecasts which initiate
(or escalate) the flood warning dissemination process. Sometimes called triggers,
criteria, warning levels, alert levels or alarms
Trigger see Threshold
274
Glossary
U
Ungauged Catchment a catchment or subcatchment in which flows are not
recorded to the extent required for the application (e.g. in real time for flood forecasting applications)
V
Vulnerability the conditions determined by physical, social, economic, political
and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards
W
Wadi or Ouedd channel which is dry except in the rainy season (UNESCO/
WMO 2007)
Watershed see Catchment
Wave disturbance in a body of water propagated at a constant or varying speed
(celerity), often of an oscillatory nature, accompanied by the alternate rise and fall
of surface fluid particles (UNESCO/WMO 2007)
Weather Radar an instrument for detecting cloud and precipitation using microwaves typically with wavelengths in the range 310 cm
Wind Waves choppy and chaotic waves generated locally by the wind (Holland
et al. 2007)
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275
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Index
A
Action tables, 59, 73
ALERT systems, 45,75
Artificial neural networks, 54, 133, 141, 147,
169171, 190, 194, 226, 239
Astronomical tides, 156, 157
Australia, 1, 82, 88, 102, 120, 158, 171,
217, 260
Automatic Weather Station, 24
B
Bangladesh, 4, 82, 102, 183
Bayesian Techniques, 54, 135, 169, 170,
225, 253
Brazil, 102, 194
Business Continuity Management, 218, 224
C
Canada, 17, 194, 201, 252
Catchment rainfall estimation, 26
Central America, 83, 102, 183184
China, 4, 32, 102, 194, 241
Coastal Forecasting
astronomical tides, 156157
data based, 152, 169
hurricanes, 22, 149, 150, 151, 162,
163165, 172
process based, 152, 156169
surge, 66, 108, 120, 157165, 169,
171, 172
transformation matrices, 171
tropical cyclones, see hurricanes
wave overtopping, 167169, 171, 172, 173
waves, 165167, 171
Communication
public awareness, 79, 82, 213, 251
risk, 912, 259
D
Dams. See Reservoirs
Data Assimilation
error prediction, 106107
parameter updating, 107108
state updating, 107108, 153, 162, 186
Data Based Models
artificial neural networks, 141, 147,
169171, 190
coastal, 169171
flow routing, 146147
ice forecasting, 190
rainfall runoff, 131, 139141
transfer function, 140, 147
299
300
Debris flows, 181, 205
Decision Support Systems, 122, 194,
237244
Delta. See Estuaries
Denmark, 30
Detection
automatic weather station, 24
evaporation, 23
network design, 4749
performance improvements, 254255
rainfall, 2436
remote sensing, 2833
river levels and flows, 3742
snow, 2728, 33
stage-discharge relationship, 3941
telemetry, 4447
tidal levels, 3739
wave monitoring, 4243
weather radar, 2832
Dikes. See Flood Defences
Disdrometers, 25
Dissemination
internet, 8283
multimedia, 8283
performance improvements, 256257,
258260
RANET, 85
techniques, 7987
transient populations, 81, 83, 256
uncertainty, 17, 86, 120122, 244248
warning messages, 8487, 250, 256
E
Economic Analysis
cost benefit, 261265
flood warning benefits, 263264
multi criteria analysis, 261, 265266
stage-damage relationships, 264
Emergency Management Australia, 2, 4, 88,
209, 217, 250
Ensemble Forecasting
coastal, 120, 159, 164
forecast products, 117119, 120122
meteorological, 35, 36
multi-model forecasts, 35, 116
performance measures, 114
rainfall thresholds, 5456
river models, 120, 128, 183, 193194
snowmelt, 188
Environment Agency, 64, 7677, 99100, 120,
171172, 197198, 264265
Estuaries, 63, 64, 150, 158, 161, 169, 171,
198199
Index
Evacuation
Decision Support Tools, 240
hurricanes, 216, 233, 240
F
False alarms, 46, 67, 68, 69, 111, 233,
251252, 255
Federal Emergency Management Agency
(FEMA), 213, 214, 215217, 220,
228, 240
Finland, 82, 102
Flash Flood
Boscastle Event, 236237
definitions, 181
Flash Flood Guidance, 53, 183185
forecasting, 181185
thresholds, 5354., 56, 205
World Meteorological Organisation,
183185
Flash Flood Guidance, 53, 183185
Flood Defences
breach, 12, 203204, 240
emergency works, 232, 241
overtopping, 167169, 173
temporary barriers, 15
Flood Emergency Plans
General Principles, 7173, 209219
operational response, 59, 73
Table Top Exercises, 219220
Validation and Testing, 73,
219220
Flood Event Management
Preparatory Actions, 231234
Flood Forecasting
data availability, 126128
flow routing, 141147, 190199
ice, 188190
integrated catchment models, 133,
175180
model calibration, 108112
model design, 9397, 123126,
149153
performance improvements,
113114, 257
rainfall runoff models, 132141
simple forecasting techniques,
6167
simple triggers, 6167
surge, 157165, 171173
systems, 97104
ungauged flows, 178180
urban drainage, 199202
waves, 165169, 171173
Index
Flood Risk
causes of flooding, 89
Flood Risk Assessment, 913, 217
Flood Warning Areas, 7375
hydraulic modelling, 1112
transient populations, 12
Flood Warning Procedures
Flood Warning Areas, 7375
Flow Control, 14, 73, 190202, 232
Flow Routing Models
conceptual, 145146
data based, 146147
process based, 142145
Forecasting Points, 9495, 124126, 151
Forecasting Systems
data hierarchy, 104
France, 54, 82, 217, 241, 242
G
Geographical Information Systems, 227228,
237239
geotechnical risks, 202206
Germany, 82, 147, 183, 194, 201, 241, 242
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, 84, 181,
202, 204
Groundwater flooding, 203
H
Hong Kong, 158, 205
Hurricanes, 9, 150, 162165, 172,
215217, 238
Hydraulic Models
coastal, 157165
ice forecasting, 189
river modelling, 142145
urban, 200201
I
Ice
forecasting, 188190
ice jams, 189
stage discharge relationships, 189
India, 85, 183
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
(ISDR), 88, 212
Ireland, 241242
Italy, 194
J
Japan, 11, 32, 82
301
K
Kalman filter, 108, 120, 190
KNMI, 5556, 158
L
Lead time
evacuation, 216, 233
flash flooding, 181, 232, 236
flood warning, 6768, 86
forecast, 9596, 181
forecasting models, 127, 171
targets, 251
telemetry network design, 48
thresholds, 51, 57, 6566, 255
time delays, 57, 9596
tropical cyclones, 216
Lessons Learned Reports, 250
Levees. See Flood Defences
Levels of service, 251252, 265
Luxembourg, 201
M
Mesoscale, 34, 162
Meteorburst telemetry, 28, 44, 45
Multi Criteria Analysis, 261, 265266
N
Nepal, 84, 183
Netherlands, 35, 5556, 108, 158. 194, 199,
241, 242244
Norway, 28, 102
Nowcasting, 3536
Numerical Weather Prediction, 3435, 162
P
Performance Monitoring
dissemination systems, 83
flood warning systems, 83, 249253
forecasting models, 113114
thresholds, 6770, 255
Polders, 5556, 192
Portugal, 171
Preparedness
All-Hazard Approaches, 217
Flood Emergency Plans, 209219
Resilience, 220226
Probabilistic
also. See Ensemble Forecasting
flood warnings, 74, 244248
forecasts, 1617, 114122
302
Probabilistic (cont.)
Numerical Weather Prediction, 35
rainfall thresholds, 5556
Risk Assessment, 913, 224225
Process Based Models
coastal, 156169
flow routing, 142145
rainfall runoff, 131, 135137
Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory,
158160
Public awareness, 79, 82, 213, 251
Q
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast.
See Numerical Weather Prediction
R
Rainfall
alarms, 5156
catchment rainfall estimation, 2627
depth duration, 52
disdrometers, 25
forecasts, 3336
microwave attenuation, 33
nowcasting, 3536
raingauges, 2425
satellite observations, 3233
thresholds, 5156
weather radar, 2832
Rainfall Runoff Models
conceptual, 137139
data based, 139141
process based, 135137
Rating curve. See stage discharge relationship
Real time updating. See Data Assimilation
Red River, 17, 247
Reservoirs
dam break, 203204, 240
decision support systems, 193194
flood forecasting, 190194
probabilistic forecasting, 122, 193194
Resilience
control rooms, 78
dissemination systems, 80, 88
flood warning systems, 220226
forecasting systems, 100101, 103104
instrumentation, 38
telemetry networks, 46, 48, 104, 128
thresholds, 58, 62
Risk to life, 4, 10, 259, 262, 265
River Gauging Stations
level monitoring, 3742
Russia, 32
Index
S
Satellite
altimetry, 38
rainfall measurements, 3233
soil moisture measurement, 3233
telemetry, 44, 45
wave monitoring, 43
SCADA, 46
SLOSH, 163165
Snow
degree-day method, 186
monitoring, 2728
snowmelt forecasting, 185188
Somalia, 18
Spain, 194
Stage-discharge relationship, 3941
STOWA, 242
Surge forecasting, 66, 108, 120, 157165,
169, 171, 172
T
Taiwan, 194
Telemetry
meteorburst, 28, 44, 45
networks, 48
radio, 44, 45
satellite, 44, 45
telephone, 44, 45
Thames Barrier, 197198
Thresholds
alarm handling, 46
meteorological indicators, 54, 182
performance, 6770, 255
rainfall, 5156, 182
risk based, 54
river level, 5661, 182
tidal level, 5661
Tidal barriers, 197199
Timeline, 234237
Transfer function, 120, 139141, 147
Transient populations, 10, 81, 83, 256
Triggers. See Thresholds
Tropical Cyclone Programme, 154156
Tropical cyclones, 2, 4, 9, 88, 150, 151,
153156, 162, 172, 210, 215, 216
Tsunami, 9, 205206, 250
U
Uncertainty
Emergency Response, 244248
forecasting models, 114122
reservoir forecasting, 193194
thresholds, 5456, 58
Index
Ungauged catchment, 136, 178180
United Kingdom, 30, 7677, 87, 99100, 114,
120, 158160, 177, 197198, 218219,
252, 264265
Urban drainage, 199202
Urban Drainage and Flood Control District, 83
US Army Corps of Engineers, 2, 88, 209,
240, 263
US National Weather Service, 28, 30, 45, 53,
75, 82, 88, 102, 120, 158, 164, 172,
184, 188, 240
USA, 11, 28, 30, 45, 53, 82, 88, 102, 120, 158,
163, 171, 172, 194, 205, 213, 215217,
240, 260
Utility function, 54, 122, 194, 246
303
V
Virtual Emergency Operations Centres, 238
Visualisation and simulation, 228229
Vulnerability, 10, 12, 214
W
Waves
forecasting, 165167
monitoring, 4243
overtopping, 167169
types, 150, 166
Weather radar, 2832
World Meteorological Organisation, 57, 32,
45, 88, 134, 153156, 183185