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1480
PETROLEUM
TRANSACTIONS
G. 1. CHIERICI
G. PIZZI
G. M, CIUCCI
MEMBERS AIME
ABSTRACT
The use oj the material balance equa/ion to estimate
the volume of hydrocarbons originally present in a reservoir, witose producing mechanism is partly due to water
drive, has been discussed in the literature by several
uuthors. There is no general agreement upon the possibility of obtaining reliable resuhs by this method. Gas
reservoirs in contact with an active aquifer are considered
in this paper.
Theoretical considerations basedon thecyberneticprinciple oj uncertainty (which sta[es that the intermdstruc[ur-e
of a system cannot be uniquely detertnined jrotn its observed external behavior) lead to the conclusion that the
volume of gas originally present in a reservoir of this type
cannot be uniqueiy determined from i[s past history. The
range of values which encotnpassm the actual value of the
reserves varies froin case to case and tnust be determined
by either nutnerical oranalogical nte[hods.
Resuhs obtained for six gas fieIds are reported. A 1[ these
fields were produced with sma[l fluctuations in their productiott rates, as is cominon practice jor gas reservoirs;
no gas storage fields were considered. Resulrs obtained
show that reserves values in a range of I (o 2, associated
with appropriate aquifers, allow the matching of the
reservoir past history wi!h tnean-square deviations less than
tile experimental errors involved in pressure and production ineasuretnents, Similar results have been found in
several other partial water drive gas reservoirs. From Ihese
results it is concluded that gas reserves cannot be uniquely
determitted from the past perjortnance of partial water
drive reservoirs, at least in cases where the reservoir has
been submitled to stna!l fluctuations in the production rates,
and pressure data of normal accuracy are available.
INTRODUCTION
A number of authors have analyzed the problem of
estimating the reserves originally present in a partial
waterdrive reservoir from ita past pressure-production performance. Literature which deals with this subject can be
grouped, according to their conclusions, as follows.
Original manumrir)t received in Society of Petroleum Emzinmrs
m%ce MaY 27, 1966. Revised manuscri~t received Dec. 7, 1966, Paper
(SPE 14S0) wss presented at SPE 41st Annual Fall Meeting held in
I)allus, Tex., Oct. 2-5, 1966. @Copy vight 1967 American [nstituta of
Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers, Inc.
preferences given st end of paper.
Discussion of this and all following technical DXDCrS is invited. Dismwdon in writing (three copies) may be sent to the olllce of the
Journal of Petroleum Techwiogu, Any discussion offered after Dec. 31,
1967, should be in the form of a new ~ar)er. No discussion should exreed 10 ~ercent of the manuscript being discussed.
FEBRIIA14Y.
1967
AGIP-DIREZIONE
MlLANO,
ITALY
MINERARIA
CONSIDERATIONS
METHOD
RESULTS
OF
PETROLEUM
TECliNOLOGY
value is known. This result follows from the indetermination principle, the aquifer being a blackbox whose external
hchavior only is known.
To evaluate the resolving power of line-fitting methods
described in the literature, the one by Hubbard et al. has
been applied to this reservoir, using two pairs of corresponding values among those found by the analog simulator
for K, and r... In, boih cases the experimental points lie
with good accuracy on a straight line (Fig, 2) and the
TAB lE 1BASIC
Reservoir
Ifiltiol
A-1
res.
SM-A
C.c
R.A
S-F
126.4
168.4
176,6
Yol. Catc.
32s.7
33.87
(Bxf)
Range
assumed
Imltl.al
res. (Bxf)
141.3
Cum. prod.
when study
w.. run. %
Inltlal
to
353,1
24.72
33.6
to
53.00
80.3
49.9
105.9
to 176.6
57.7
to 15s,9
123.6
te 176.6
5s.5
44.5
. .-
vol.
re$.
Time
(months)
.
Cumulative Gas
Produced
G. [BscF)
$
4
6
s
10
Average
Pressure
P (P$in)
0.0000
2,41S
0.0000
0,S361
3,0159
4.9369
6.2935
7.S446
2,;64
2,367
2,365
2,350
0.2666
0,6672
1.1783
1.7626
2.1717
10.0671
10.9672
12.506S
14.2483
16.4686
2,335
2,33S
2,327
19.1569
21.8601
25.0694
27.3912
30.6637
33.9971
36.9639
39.7172
41.5226
44.4413
2,756
2,143
47. I 744
49.9532
52.8945
55.8469
58.0177
61.4001
64.3613
67.3282
70.2294
72.8696
1,s97
1,831
1,826
6.7792
7.2769
7.5702
s.0219
8.6017
2,;98
2,091
2,;34
2,o14
90.i1385
93.6779
96.2496
99.1307
102.1177
82
84
S6
8s
90
104.9584
107.S226
110.3!359
1:8
1,927
4.6375
4.9043
5.1545
5.5171
6.1030
72
74
76
7s
80
92
94
96
(P9W
2,269
2,254
2,237
2,213
66
6S
70
1,883
1,996
64
Average
Pressure
2,4314
2.6274
3.0311
3.5s72
4.i687
75.7672
7s.s404
81.8056
84.7276
87.7205
62
Cumulative Gas
Produced
Gp (B$tf)
1,;80
1;3
1,753
9.3227
10.1055
10.6241
11.0437
I 1.4503
1,862
1,832
1,822
1,805
1,795
1,784
1,765
Cumulatkw Gas
Produced
GP [B$cf)
0.0000
0.6922
1 .3s08
1.8010
3.1535
4.193s
5.2247
6.2594
7.2923
8.3959
9.5083
10.634S
11,7543
12.s190
13.7071
14.5970
1S.4940
16.3804
17.2632
1S.1461
19.0191
1700
19.9930
20.9730
21.9424
22.9170
23.8899
11.9256
12.4467
12.9793
I 3,4397
13.8768
1;80
24.8734
25.8446
26.s29S
27.S009
28.7756
14.1546
14.6017
15.0466
15.3608
15.7766
1,768
I ,668
1,657
1,641
16.1680
16.2068
16.4751
16.9106
IF1
1,639
1,678
1,661
29.7397
30.8115
32.1128
;:.::WQ:
36.2961
37.4505
3S.6106
39.7660
40.861S
1,781
0,1B62
0.3725
0.6699
0,9920
1.3233
I ,751
1,712
1,778
1,643
1,;21
1,599
I ,579
,766
49.4008
50.9140
52.45S9
53.7684
55.279S
1,498
112
114
116
118
1.20
64.4735
66.0736
67.6362
69.0424
70.3684
122
124
126
70,9737
71.9099
72.8644
11967
0.000o
;43
,535
56.7782
58,3553
39.9819
61.5527
62,S942
Cumulntlve Gas
Produced
GP (Ed)
1,818
42.394S
d4.0676
45.0783
46.4432
47.9158
102
104
106
108
110
FERRfJA21Y,
Average
Pressure
P bid
,508
1,479
1744
1 ,iol
2,630
1.63S7
2.0196
2.7017
3.9231
5.0600
6.1S49
7.3049
8,4935
10.9257
13,6516
14.9303
15.1784
15.4385
16,550S
18.4S0S
21.5384
23.9335
25.9430
26.9793
29.0273
31.4206
34.1037
35.34S6
35.6304
35.7354
36.0765
37.7987
39.0974
39.7663
40.0428
40.2941
41.7141
43.5249
45.5659
46.3925
Cumulative Gas
Produced
G, [Btcf]
Average
Pressure
P (PM
0.0000
2,233
0.4664
1.0768
1.3072
1.3072
I .7907
2,729
2,219
2,225
2.6891
3.7689
5.1777
6.4195
7.3272
2T69
2,153
7.7217
8.3740
9.S462
11.4127
12.s441
14.2204
14.8703
; pWf
2,145
2,142
2 F57
2,044
2,023
20:2019
2;4
2,108
2,108
2G,7
2,065
22.1236
23.8098
25.1021
27.4847
24).2339
33.4714
36.6410
39.7014
41.01 I 2
44.6297
48.7076
S2.6157
54.4177
55.5025
56.5722
1F34
1,940
l,a97
1Es
1,799
1,556
1,513
1,777
58.9644
62.9243
66,0817
67.6350
70.1428
1,40s
1,363
54:0549
71.1077
74,3630
77,4440
79.7133
81.7708
55.9902
57.735s
58.6393
60.8932
63.1990
IZ5
2,067
46.4782
47.1400
;pf
65.7134
68.0458
69.3764
69.S445
72.3631
74.8727
1;1
1,402
Average
Prewre
P (PM
1,751
1,737
1,607
83.6547
84.S277
87.1868
89.7962
92.2207
94.0234
95.4639
96,3466
97.2763
s8.9a44
lW.7267
101.5752
101,9083
103.3246
1,765
1,415
I ,750
1,115
1,io9
I ,T57
TABLE 2-BAStC
Resewolr Parameters
DATA
-
A-1
_ BM.A
c-c
TABLE 3-SUMMARY
R-A
.
S-F
A;;f;d
ReferenCe tem!worure
(F)
59
59
59
59
59
Referance
(Psia)
14.69
14.69
14.69
14.69
14.69
R.xemak
(F)
Rmwve$,
immure
cam -(~<f)
1
141,26
Reservoir
A.I
temperature
109.B
100.6
Com!xewlbility
9B,B
factors
Pressure (Ma]
.=++
-.
tem!xmaturm
0.S827
2560
0.B475
0.B454
0.8812
0.8802
0.8478
0.B504
0.8544
0.8S11
0.B760
0.8816
0.8775
0.8797
0.8598
0.8474
0.8635
0.B695
0.85?4
0.8859
0.8914
0.SS76
0.B594
0.8676
0.8967
0.9020
0.S928
0.8990
0.S771
0.8861
0.8956
o .?093
0.9166
0.9065
0.9246
0.9073
0!9334
0,9235
0.9327
2276
2134
I 991
1849
0.8517
0.8562
1707
1565
0.E612
1422
0.8764
0.8B40
0.8680
1280
996
0.8916
0.9023
853
0.9136
1138
0,8782
0.8864
0.8940
0.9065
0.9162
0.8830
5:018:7
3,584.8
5,2S2.7
2,334.?
1,115.2
1,672.S
4,1B2. I
5,904.0
10,037.5
16,729.0
;
3
4
5
24.72
31.78
38.85
45.91
52.97
9,121.3
8,181.7
6,776.9
6,236.1
5,647.5
0.3968
0.3968
0.3968
i
3
4
5
6
88.29
105.94
123.60
141,26
158.91
176.57
4,844.1
4,285.2
6,190.1
5,571.0
5,064.3
4,204.2
2.129
2.129
0.958
0.958
0.958
0.958
14.0
14.0
03
n
02
w
105.94
123.64
141.26
158.91
49,135,0
37,289.0
3,692.2
5,319.4
0.0107
0,0113
0.2680
0,3570
:8.:
5:0
2.5
123,60
141.26
158,91
176.57
1,326.S
1,580,4
1,510.5
1,s10.5
3.690
3,690
3,690
3.690
14,0
9.0
6.0
4,0
;
3
4
5
6
123,60
141.26
180.00
211.88
247.20
lB0,00
1,909.3
1,771.4
1,468,0
1,218,2
941.8
1,468.0
0,533
0.533
04533
0,533
0,533
0.566
BM.A
0.8828
C.c
0.9144
R-A
;
(bb~/P$i)
14,339.0
1~lx&. :
Dr,viatlen Bntwe.en
Percent.
Actuai & Calc.
in. res.
Prnsmre History
WI
Characteristics ~[.k!.
Invaded
at end of
hw~~th-f)
rr),
[J&t)
[jsll
..
-- POSt hkt.
:$
0.358
9.2
0.532
71. I
51,1
8<9
0.723
12:0
::%
37.2
1.277
m
0.473
26.6
1::!
1,065
17,1
WJ
1,420
19.9
0,650
22.5
!;.;
w
0.872
0.639
al
1.082
27,2
1.277
m
0.461
12.5
23:2
6.388
m
0.479
12.7
22.9
3.823
14,0
m
1.277
23.3
0.517
0.562
14.8
,a
0.766
22.5
(n
0.574
14,7
0.3B3
22.5
m
0.582
15.2
0.191
22.5
317:83
353.14
264.86
264.86
264.86
264.B6
26A.86
264.S6
. .
2702
241 B
176,57
211.88
fi;.;y
123.3
130.8
at reservoir
Aqulfw
-
:
S-F
;
CC
4.46
4.46
4.46
4.46
4,46
o.39t 8
0.3968
0.327
0.4d6
0.588
0.397
0.371
zJ
~m
m
ccl
PA
T
Ii::
12.9
10.1
9.5
ti:
32.5
24.8
19.3
1.053
0.607
0.423
0.308
0.384
0.356
20.8
12.0
8.3
6.5
77.9
59.5
46.2
36.0
28.5
21.5
::3:~
48.7
~;.g
0.32B
0.441
19,2
13.3
8.2
11.6
0.819
1.273
0.507
0.664
17.9
28.4
12.0
15.2
64.5
39.9
17,2
6,8
0.531
0,421
0,248
0.271
0.410
0,264
31.5
24.6
17.3
20.2
27.3
}9.1
14.0
11.5
7.5
5.3
3.5
7.7
9:!
8:9
/
60
I ,
I , ,
, I ,
40
! 1
II
,-
, I
20
n
.
Y
:
6 =265
erz
~~LC.UL.ATED_
.ASSUMEQ
Kt= 0.532 months- G = 170.4 9scf
r-=7
erz
80
mm CJ
Bscf
=m
C = 13,0L5 bbl/psi
I
4
U
60 -
ASaM&D.
@o
=0-
40 -CALC.U LA.IEQ
20 -
o
o
0.1
0,5
10
FIC. 1RESERVOIR
A-1:
AfirETERS
240
onths
OF
Bscf
C =5,218
bbl/psi
2
9-B9i
-1
t
G =2L5.8
3
I psi,10-6
~*pQtD
K, PAR-
OF PETROLEUM
TECHNOLOGY
C.C
The range of initial reserves values which has been explored for Field C-C is from 88.3 to 176.6 Bscf (Table 3).
It is also impossible in this example to ascertain from
the past history which is the value pertaining to the reserves, since the range of uncertainty is at least from 88.3
to 176.6 Bscf. Information available on the volume of
water encroached into the reservoir leads to exclude
values below 100 Bscfi, there is no other possible means to
narrow the range of indetermination.
The line-fitting method described by Havlena ef al~ and
Pirson has been applied to this reservoir to evaluate the
resolving power of the same method. For K, and r.~, two
pairs of corresponding values were taken among those
already found by the analog simulator, In both cases the
experimental points lie on a straight line (Fig. 4) as required by the method, but the reserves values which result
therefrom are different (72.4 and 160.7 Bscf, respective y).
FI1{LD R-A
.
.
200 -
100 -
CALCULATE
Kt=2.f29
:5
months-f
400
200
100
t
50
G,
l~I[;.
:+
ftI{sKftvIMrt
tt!d.A:
REI.ATIO>SIIIP
80
FEBRUARY,
months-i
=m
eo
23
Bscf
~KY\Vl;l:X
II
G=160.7
Bscf
C =.$,953
bbl/psi
5678
AND (:
KESL:KVOIK.AQIJIFI;M
Sysr[.xs
REPRODLX:IM
Acruiu. RSSHNOIR PAST PI;RFORMAXIX WITHIX TIiIi
STANDARD ACCURACYIN paEssuREi$IEASUREIIENTS.
\AIJTES
01
CALCULATE
ASSUMED
.
r
bbl/psi
I
Kt=0,958
Sscf
c =5,174
300 -
Lo
G= 72.4
reo=14
a = :W
30
300 -
u
:
?0
IIF
1967
I%.
4-Rw~avom C-C:
AND
PmsoN
al!
METHODS,
24i
z
2
Z
o
a
n
75 -
50 Id
>
i=
a
3=
-.,
1
PAST
300:
!40
2500
FORECAST
.4
80
ASSUMED
.6 -
to
:m
w
CE
Q
months-
,4 -
50
\.\
s
.
CALCULATED
.2
G = 105.9
d-
Bscf
.10-4
ssDn=50
1.!
>
e
i? 1000
Kt=0.0107
160
\\
,91500
w
a
.8 -
HISTORY-
2000
1,0
-
25 -
3
0
cas.e
1
cas
.8 +
.mm
.6 -
ASSUMEO
Kt = 0.357
months
-Q- = 1.879
G
re o = 2.5
.10-7 psi-1
%-
500
TIME,
months
25
50
Gp Bg,
FIG.
S-PAST
PERFORMANCE
AND PREDICTED
OF RESERVOIR R.A.
242
100
75
bbl
-1
125
.106
BEHAVIOR
~Ic.
f&RESERVOIIt
OF
PETROLEUM
TECHNOLOGY
CONCLUSIONS
1. It has been ascertained that different gas reservoiraquifer systems can show the same pressure performance
in response to a given production schedule. Therefore, it is
not possible to determine the initial reserves of a water
drive gas reservoir from its pressure-production history.
This is in agreement with the principle of uncertainty,
which states that the internal structure of a system cannot
be uniquely determined from its external behavior,
2. The range of indetermination of the initial reserves
value must be found for each specific case. Thk can be
accomplished by finding the reservoir-aquifer systems
which are able to reproduce the past pressure behavior of
the actual reservoir with a root mean-square deviation
sma!ler than the error affecting the values of the average
reservoir pressure,
The results presented in this paper, pertaining to fields
in an advanced stage of theh productive life, show that
the range of indetermination is as large as 1 to 2. It can
be reasonably inferred that the indetermination would be
larger when the reserves evaluation is made at an earlier
stage of the productive life. The experimental work reported in this paper was purposely limited to homogeneous
circular aquifers. Should the work be extended to heterogeneous aquifers of whatever shape, a wider range of
indetermination might result.
AR the reservoirs which were studied had been subI
E
g 1
w
a
Lo
30
20 ~
~ #
10
ASSUMED
K,=3.690
months-f
reo=u
C 852
/~-.--
?----
bbl/psi
----
.5
.75
/
0
30
<
\
_..---=20
1
. 2s
CALCULATED.
G=143 Bscf
1.25
20
.ul
~
D
n
.n(3
-.
v
*
9
-.
c
2
(n
. ./.
..
10
f5
fo
Kt
CALCULATE
ASSUMED
Kt=3,690 months1
G=f65
~o.k
C = 2,W
9scf
reD=
bbl/~s!
0.533 months-i
m
.,
01
0
2.5
75
B9- B91
zAPQt~
10
125
200
250
G, Bscf
HUBBARO et aL METHOD,
1967
150
, psi-110-7
FEIIIIUASIY,
15
foo
-.,
constant
and real time (fti = K,t)
between
dimensionless
+ I~.s. - p(.m,,]
x Pm.
.100
SSD. = normalized
u=
sUBS[;RWTS
comp. =computed
system
value torthesinluhtted
reservoir+tquifer
\Vaicr.Dtive
I{eselvoir,
?runs.,
Od Reservoir
2, Pir,+on, S, J.:
Engineering,
2nd hi.,
3. .%mley,
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors thank the management of AtilP-Direzione
Mineraria for permission to publish this paper, and especially G. Long. head of Servizio Geochimico e L.aboratori,
who sponsored this research, They also wish to express
their appreciation to C. Bortoloni who carried out the experimental work on the simulator.
REFERENCES
I.von Everdirrgen, A. F., Timmerman,
Application
of the Material
E. H. uml Mdvitrhrm,
Brrlancc Eqnution to SI
us an
IW;J)
7. Hal,
bard,
R.
M,
OIIJ
l;lenbaas,
J. R.:
(;as.. $tnrugr
\Tolan,(. i,, a \Valer.l)rirt:
Pet.Tech. (April, 1964) 383-3ttff.
(jiw.iillml
l)rlcrtniniI1g
Iorr
of Reservoir
l{rw,rvoir.
I>crfornmnre,
./,
Ir(i)fs,,
15. A:;hby, \V. R.: Design /or a Brain, 2nd Ed, John
Sons, Inc., New York (1960),
McGritw-
j = jth well
J. J.:
l% rtial
51.60,
and
Wiley &
Syste/r/s, Jo}ltt
18. Chicrici, G. L., Cincci, G. M. rmd liz~i, (L: Was Stortige ill
Gas Fields Communicating with au Aquifer, P1-c5sure Trend
Forecast by Means of an Analog Simulator, Paper ST/1~C12/
CAS/11, Symposium wt. Comparative Economics 01 Modern
Gus Storage Methods, Paris (Stq]t. ,21-26, 1964).
19. Cbierici, G. L. and Pimi, G.: \v@ter.Drive G8s Reservoirs:
Uncertainty in Reserves Evalmition From Past History, Paper
SPE 1480 presented iit SPE 41st Annual Fall Meeting. Dalhss,
***
Tcx. [oct, 2.5, 1966).
JO UltNALOF
PETROLEUM
1ECHNOLOCY