Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
72
Rs mn CY05 CY06 CY07E
Urea capacity 551,100 551,100 594,000
Urea production 588,799 601,044 488,000
Effeciency 107% 109% 82%
Capacity per day 1,670 1,670 1,800
Working days 330 300 249
DAP capacity 445,500 445,500 457,050
DAP production 454,672 450,400 357,000
Effeciency 102% 101% 110%
Capacity per day 1,350 1,350 1,650
Working days 330 330 277
Total production 1,043,471 1,051,444 845,000
Imported urea 64,000 70,400 77,440
DAP price US $
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Rs/US$
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Urea prices
Jan 539
Feb 542
Mar 538
Apr 538
May 538
Jun 538
Jul 565
Aug 565
Sep 565
Oct 565
Nov 565
Dec 587
Gas charges
Feedstock consumption 21,173 21,613 16,790
Fuelstock consumption 4,547 4,582 3,682
Feedstock charges Rs/MMBTU 37 37 37
Fuelstock charges Rs/MMBTU 228 257 241
Feedstock/production 4% 4% 3%
Fuelstock/production 0% 0% 0%
Phosphoric acid
Import price $/ton 445 465 568
Conversion factor 0.49 0.49 0.49
Phosphoric acid consumed 176,666
Rs/ US $ 60.00 60.00 61
Phosphoric acid cost 5,910,545,158 6,118 6,117
Phosphoric acid available
5% 4% 22%
Insurance 44 48 45
Growth 2% 8% 2%
Communication, establishment 38 47 30
growth 65% 25% 86%
Amortization - - -
Distribution costs
Administrative expenses
Salaries wages 52 70 88
Travel and conveyance 7 6 12
Utilities 1 1 2
Priniting 2 2 3
Repairs 2 1 3
Communication 9 9 9
Rent, rates 2 2 3
Listing fee 0 0 0
Donation 18 0 1
Legal 4 2 2
Depreciation 14 4 5
Amortization of deferred 3 - -
Miscellaneous 4 5
Entertainment
Advertisement
Cost at start
Leasehold land 213 213 213
Buildings on leasehold land 1,461 1,465 1,468
Plant and machinery 17,192 17,219 18,037
Furniture, fixture and office equipment 56 61 61
Vehicles 40 49 77
Computer equipment 29 34 42
Library books 1 2 2
Freehold land - 120 120
Catalyst 23 53 67
Plant subject to financial lease - - -
Vehicles subject to financial lease 27 20 14
Capital WIP 122 885 1,372
Total 19,165 20,121 21,472
Additions
Leasehold land - 0 -
Buildings on leasehold lands 4 3 13
Plant and machinery 28 7 202
Furniture, fixture and office equipment 5 0 1
Vehicles 11 28 23
Computer equipment 6 8 12
Library books 0 0 0
Freehold land 120 - -
Catalyst 30 15 41
Plant subject to financial lease - - -
Vehicles subject to financial lease - - -
Capital WIP 762 1,298 2,459
Total 966 1,358 2,751
Disposals
Leasehold land - - -
Buildings on leasehold lans - - -
Plant and machinery - - (155)
Furniture, fixture and office equipment (0) - -
Vehicles (10) (7) (12)
Computer equipment - (0) (0)
Library books - - -
Freehold land - - -
Catalyst - -
Plant subject to financial lease - - -
Vehicles subject to financial lease - - -
Capital WIP - -
Total (10) (7) (168)
Adjustments
Leasehold land - - -
Buildings on leasehold lans - - -
Plant and machinery - 811 (62)
Furniture, fixture and office equipment - - (3)
Vehicles 7 6 -
Computer equipment - - (1)
Library books - - (0)
Freehold land - - -
Catalyst - (0) -
Plant subject to financial lease - - -
Vehicles subject to financial lease (7) (6) -
Capital WIP - (811) -
Total - (0) (65)
Transfer in/(out)
Leasehold land - - -
Buildings on leasehold lans - - (11)
Plant and machinery - - 2,355
Furniture, fixture and office equipment - - 11
Vehicles - - 3
Computer equipment - - (11)
Library books - - -
Freehold land - - -
Catalyst - - -
Plant subject to financial lease - - -
Vehicles subject to financial lease - - (3)
Capital WIP - - (2,344)
Total - - (0)
Cost at end
Leasehold land 213 213 213
Buildings on leasehold lans 1,465 1,468 1,469
Plant and machinery 17,219 18,037 20,378
Furniture, fixture and office equipment 61 61 70
Vehicles 49 77 91
Computer equipment 34 42 41
Library books 2 2 2
Freehold land 120 120 120
Catalyst 53 67 108
Plant subject to financial lease - - -
Vehicles subject to financial lease 20 14 11
Capital WIP 885 1,372 1,486
Total 20,121 21,472 23,989
Depriciation rate
Leasehold land 2% 2%
Buildings on leasehold land 3% 3%
Plant and machinery 5% 5%
Furniture, fixture and office equipment 10% 10%
Vehicles 20% 20%
Computer equipment 20% 20%
Library books 30% 30%
Freehold land 0% 0%
Catalyst 25% 25%
Plant subject to financial lease 0% 0%
Vehicles subject to financial lease 20% 20%
Capital WIP 0% 0%
Total
Depriciation at start
Leasehold land 50 55 59
Buildings on leasehold lans 219 263 307
Plant and machinery 4,236 5,099 6,000
Furniture, fixture and office equipment 48 53 53
Vehicles 29 31 44
Computer equipment 26 30 37
Library books 1 1 1
Freehold land - - -
Catalyst 5 13 28
Plant subject to financial lease - - -
Vehicles subject to financial lease 13 13 11
Capital WIP - - -
Total 4,625 5,557 6,541
Disposals
Leasehold land - - -
Buildings on leasehold land - - -
Plant and machinery - - (52)
Furniture, fixture and office equipment (0) - -
Vehicles (7) (6) (10)
Computer equipment - (0) (0)
Library books - - -
Freehold land - - -
Catalyst - - -
Plant subject to financial lease - - -
Vehicles subject to financial lease - - -
Capital WIP - - -
Plant and machinery - - -
Quarry equipment - - -
Furniture, fixture and office equipment - - -
Total (7) (6) (63)
Adjustments
Leasehold land - - -
Buildings on leasehold lans - - -
Plant and machinery - - -
Furniture, fixture and office equipment - - (3)
Vehicles 4 4 -
Computer equipment - - (1)
Library books - - (0)
Freehold land - - -
Catalyst - (0) -
Plant subject to financial lease - - -
Vehicles subject to financial lease (4) (4) -
Capital WIP - - -
Total - (0) (4)
Depriciation at end
Leasehold land 55 59 64
Buildings on leasehold lans 263 307 351
Plant and machinery 5,099 6,000 6,901
Furniture, fixture and office equipment 53 53 58
Vehicles 31 44 48
Computer equipment 30 37 46
Library books 1 1 2
Freehold land - - -
Catalyst 13 28 49
Plant subject to financial lease - - -
Vehicles subject to financial lease 13 11 13
Capital WIP - - -
Total 5,557 6,541 7,532
Cost 0% 0% 0%
Book value 28% 14% 25%
Sale proceeds 202% 420% 267%
Other income
Scrap sales 26 29 38
Gain on sales of property 3 3 -
Dividend income from PMP -
Sale of Phosphoric acid at 25% premium -
Dividend from power plant -
Scrap sales 1% 6%
Gain on sales of property 2% 2%
Dividend income from PMP -
Sale of Phosphoric acid at 15% premium -
Taxation
Current - - -
Deferred-for the year 1,465,811,000 1,312 1,360
Deferred- for prior years - - -
Mark upterm
On long accrued
financing as a % of LT
financing 2% 2% 2%
On long term murabaha as a % of LT
murabha 2% 2% 2%
On short term borrowings as a % of ST
borrowings
WPPF
Balance at beginning 13 9 15
Interest on funds utilized in the company's
business 0 0 0
Allocation for the year 169 165 167
182 174 182
Payment to WPPF during the year 173 159 168
9 15 14
Interest on funds utilized in the company's
business 1% 2% 1%
Allocation for the year
Payment to WPPF during the year 95% 91% 92%
Welfare fund 10%
Mark up accrued
On long term financing 51 43 29
On long term murabaha 5 4 3
On short term borrowings 39 58
94 105 32
Current assets
Stores & spares
Stores 35 31 53
Spares 496 656 426
Loose tools - - -
Items in transit 51 114 44
581 802 523
Provision for obsolescene (4) (4) (1)
577 797 522
Stock in trade
Packing matrials 10 14 16
Raw materials 342 206 248
Raw materials in transit 268 336 191
WIP 2 5 7
Finished goods 402 239 60
Stock in trade 1,023 801 522
Packing matrials 4% 5% 6%
Raw materials 5% 3% 4%
Raw materials in transit 4% 5% 3%
WIP 34% 319% 141%
Finished goods 1020% 60% 60%
Interest accrued 86 91 41
Mark up accrued 94 76 74
0% 0%
0.25 0.53 1.10 1.42 3.30 1.45
1Q-CY08 2Q-CY08 3Q-CY08 4Q-CY08 CY08F 1Q-CY09
636,900
145,500 159,000 159,000 162,000 636,900 159,225
100%
1,930
315
470,580
7,568 156,860 156,860 156,860 470,580 168,795
100%
2,046
230
153,068 315,860 315,860 318,860 1,107,480 328,020
8,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 85,184 -
27
36
43
48
52
58
62
65
70
74
77
81
62
63
63
64
68
69
68
68
68
67
67
67
63 67 68 67 66 67
593
610
610
610
622
635
647
647
647
654
654
680
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
7%
6%
7%
5%
5%
5%
292%
1%
0%
0%
2%
2%
2%
0%
0%
1%
0%
4%
15%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
10 22 22 23 78 23
68 69 71 72 70 71
2% 2% 2% 2% 5% 2%
7 7 7 7 28 7
2% 2%
12 12 12 12 48 12
4% 2%
10 10 10 10 40 10
6% 2%
8 9 9 10 36 10
72% 2%
13 13 13 13 13 13
3,183
177
58
80
5
27
39
-
40
14
112
18
4
6
4
10
7
1
1
7
11
-
8
213
1,469
20,378
70
91
41
2
120
108
-
11
1,486
23,989
0
4
102
2
15
6
0
24
28
-
3
600
784
-
-
(31)
(1)
(8)
(0)
-
-
-
-
(0)
-
(40)
-
-
174
(1)
5
(0)
(0)
-
(0)
(1)
(5)
(231)
(59)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
213
1,474
20,622
71
104
47
2
144
135
(1)
9
1,855
24,675
2%
3%
5%
10%
20%
20%
30%
0%
25%
0%
20%
0%
64
351
6,901
58
48
46
2
-
49
-
13
-
7,532
4
44
1,031
7
21
9
1
-
34
-
2
-
1,153
-
-
(10)
(0)
(6)
(0)
-
-
-
-
(0)
-
-
-
-
(17)
-
-
0
(1)
4
(0)
(0)
-
(0)
(0)
(4)
-
(1)
68
395
7,922
64
66
55
2
-
82
(0)
11
-
8,667
145
1,078
12,700
7
38
(8)
(0)
144
53
(1)
(2)
1,855
16,008
1,143
11
1,153
99%
1%
10
2
6
0%
22%
296%
166
94
87
1
2
5%
0%
571
42
4
-
-
-
620
10%
1%
10%
2%
600
50%
30%
20%
37%
2%
1%
17%
17%
5%
13%
-5%
55%
8%
10%
2%
5%
0%
28%
2%
0%
2%
2%
58%
-10%
4%
0%
3%
0%
0%
0%
4%
1%
3%
22%
2%
1%
14%
-100%
0%
90%
2%
2%
1%
96%
9,341
228
(1,339)
8,230
11
1
10
6
1
5
4,419
2,445
6,864
648
6,216
4,125
1,017
1,907
13
94
-
-
-
675
-
26
66
7,923
14
0
166
180
168
13
1%
93%
10%
20
2
22
3,000
1,660
400
3
(3)
2,060
125
14
1
13
50
1,450
-
149
1,648
(4)
1,644
17
1,394
1,376
22
151
2,961
5%
4%
4%
164%
60%
336
67
2
66
1
1
3
4
50
533
53
(53)
533
26%
1
3,216
52
3,270
72%
385
(11)
11
1,490
20
2
36
58
661
3
664
15%
0%
0.69 0.90 0.92 3.97 0.88 0.82
2Q-CY09 3Q-CY09 4Q-CY09 CY09F 1Q-CY10 2Q-CY10
636,900
159,225 159,225 159,225 636,900 159,318 159,225
100%
1,930
330
675,180
168,795 168,795 168,795 675,180 168,795 168,795
100%
2,046
330
328,020 328,020 328,020 1,312,080 328,113 328,020
- - - - - -
93 93 93 93 93
159,225 159,225 159,225 159,318 159,225
93 93 93 636,900 93 93
- -
168,795 168,795 168,795 168,795 168,795
- - - 675,180 - -
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
91
93
95
97
67
67
67
66
66
66
66
67
66
66
66
66
66 66 66 66 65 65
680
687
687
687
687
687
700
700
700
708
708
736
0
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
16%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
0%
1%
0%
4%
10%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
10% 10% 10% 10%
24 24 25 96 25 26
73 74 76 71 77 78
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
7 7 8 29 8 8
2% 2% 2% 5% 2% 2%
12 13 13 50 13 14
2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2%
10 11 11 43 11 11
2% 2% 2% 7% 2% 2%
10 11 11 42 11 11
2% 2% 2% 66% 2% 2%
13 13 13 7 13 13
688 1 1 252 1
(1) (1) (1) (252) (1)
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
5,875
209
107
145
8
52
71
-
72
26
138
34
7
11
7
49
12
1
3
14
11
-
13
213
1,474
20,622
71
104
47
2
144
135
(1)
9
1,855
24,675
0
5
73
2
18
7
0
29
34
-
1
300
468
-
-
(37)
(0)
(8)
(0)
-
-
-
-
(0)
-
(46)
-
-
208
(1)
5
(0)
(0)
-
(0)
(1)
(5)
(231)
(25)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
213
1,479
20,865
72
119
54
3
173
170
(3)
4
1,924
25,072
2%
3%
5%
10%
20%
20%
30%
0%
25%
0%
20%
0%
68
395
7,922
64
66
55
2
-
82
(0)
11
-
8,667
4
44
1,043
7
24
11
1
-
42
-
1
-
1,178
-
-
(13)
(0)
(6)
(0)
-
-
-
-
(0)
-
-
-
-
(19)
-
-
0
(1)
3
(0)
(0)
-
(0)
(0)
(3)
-
(1)
72
440
8,953
70
87
66
3
-
125
(1)
9
-
9,824
141
1,039
11,912
2
32
(12)
(1)
173
45
(2)
(4)
1,924
15,249
1,167
11
1,178
99%
1%
9
2
6
0%
21%
328%
167
103
1
4
5%
0%
600
44
4
100
-
-
752
5%
1%
6%
2%
600 600
50%
30%
20%
54%
-7%
-4%
17%
17%
6%
14%
-5%
55%
8%
9%
2%
5%
0%
26%
2%
0%
2%
2%
56%
-11%
4%
0%
3%
0%
0%
0%
4%
1%
4%
25%
2%
1%
14%
-100%
0%
90%
2%
2%
1%
94%
9,341
228
(2,675)
6,895
8
0
8
6
1
5
4,216
2,331
6,547
648
5,899
7,248
1,909
3,605
14
103
-
-
-
826
-
42
126
13,874
13
0
167
180
166
14
1%
92%
10%
13
2
15
3,000
1,785
1,000
3
(3)
2,785
125
12
0
12
45
2,676
-
274
2,996
(8)
2,988
24
2,321
2,517
15
151
5,030
5%
4%
4%
208%
60%
621
71
3
68
0
1
3
4
58
636
53
(53)
636
19%
2
5,138
52
5,192
72%
665
(13)
13
1,861
13
2
39
54
760
4
764
15%
0%
0.79 1.98 4.48 0.89
3Q-CY10 4Q-CY10 CY10F 4QCY07E Oct Nov Dec
636,900
159,225 159,225 636,900 204,223 33,877 80,346 90,000
100%
1,930
330
675,180
168,795 168,795 675,180 111,833 50,239 46,394 15,200
100%
2,046
330
328,020 328,020 1,312,080 316,056 84,116 126,740 105,200
- - - - - - -
93 93
159,225 159,225
93 93 636,900
- -
168,795 168,795
- - 675,180
97
98
103
104
105
106
108
110
116
121
127
134
65
66
65
65
65
65
65
65
66
65
65
65
65 65 65
736
743
743
743
743
743
758
758
758
766
766
796
1%
5%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
5%
5%
5%
5%
35%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
0%
1%
0%
4%
8%
0% 0% 0% 0%
1% 1% 1% 1%
6% 6% 6% 6%
10% 10%
26 26 103 24
79 80 73 67
2% 2% 2%
8 8 32 6
2% 2% 2%
14 14 52 11
2% 2% 2%
11 12 45 8
2% 2% 5%
11 12 46 6
2% 2% 19%
13 13 11 21
252 683
(252) -
187 187 1 -
- - - -
- - - -
7,052 115
248 37
129 6
175 9
10 0
62 3
85 4
- -
88 4
31 2
172 22
41 2
8 0
13 1
9 0
59 3
15 1
1 0
3 0
16 1
11 1
- 0
17 1
213
1,479
20,865
72
119
54
3
173
170
(3)
4
1,924
25,072
0
6
82
2
19
8
0
35
31
-
1
300
483
-
-
(45)
(0)
(9)
(0)
-
-
-
-
(0)
-
(54)
-
-
226
(1)
5
(0)
(0)
-
(0)
(1)
(5)
(254)
(30)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
213
1,484
21,129
73
134
61
3
207
200
(3)
0
1,970
25,472
2%
3%
5%
10%
20%
20%
30%
0%
25%
0%
20%
0%
72
440
8,953
70
87
66
3
-
125
(1)
9
-
9,824
4
45
1,056
7
27
12
1
-
50
-
0
-
1,203
-
-
(15)
(0)
(7)
(0)
-
-
-
-
(0)
-
-
-
-
(22)
-
-
0
(1)
3
(0)
(0)
-
(0)
(0)
(3)
-
(1)
77
484
9,995
76
110
78
4
-
175
(1)
5
-
11,003
137
1,000
11,134
(3)
24
(17)
(1)
207
26
(2)
(5)
1,970
14,469
1,191
11
1,203
99%
1%
10
2
6
0%
23%
297%
166 44
114 19
1 0
4 0
5%
0%
660 130
4 22
47 9
4 -
110
-
50
875 161
10%
1%
6%
2%
10%
- 600
50%
30%
20%
58%
11%
6%
17%
17%
6%
13%
-5%
56%
8%
9%
2%
5%
0%
27%
2%
0%
2%
2%
58%
-12%
4%
0%
3%
0%
0%
0%
5%
1%
3%
24%
2%
1%
14%
-100%
0%
90%
2%
2%
1%
95%
9,341
228
(2,411)
7,159
7
0
7
5
1
4
4,021
2,265
6,286
648
5,638
8,680
2,246
4,401
14
114
-
-
-
804
-
47
147
16,452
14
0
166
181
167
14
1%
92%
10%
4
1
3,000
1,909
-
3
(3)
1,909
125
11
0
10
43
3,212
-
329
3,584
(12)
3,573
29
3,015
2,848
19
151
6,062
5%
4%
4%
171%
60%
745
74
2
72
0
1
3
4
65
781
53
(53)
781
23%
2
6,095
52
6,149
72%
810
(15)
15
2,056
4
1
38
44
875
4
879
15%
0%
O6 O7
CY 596 500 -16% Urea
9M 463 296 -36% Urea
4Q 133 204 53% Urea
CY 472 363 -23% DAP
9M 212 251 18% DAP
4Q 260 112 -57% DAP
EPS 0.40 1.02 0.69
Administrartive expenses 21 38 31
Finance cost 50 56 60
Extraordianry items
DPS
Payout ratio
Earnings growth
Net margins 15% 27% 14%
Unappropriatd c/f
ROE
Rtention rate
Growth
Price
No. of shares
Market Cap
25 114 24 26 26 28
41 170 23 39 53 128
- 700 - 700 - -
2.50
95%
34%
13% 17% 10% 23% 12% 18%
(2,423)
-
2,449
26
(1,168)
(701)
(1,842)
2.62 0.40 0.17 1.08 1.06 2.72
103 34 26 27 43 131
- - -
60% 92%
0% 4%
17% 12% 18% 26% 22% 21%
(1,842) (1,031)
(467) (1,168)
2,445 2,540
136 341
(467) (467)
(701) (934)
- -
(1,031) (1,060)
30%
8%
2%
1%
13
40
934
36,991
854
4,628
33,216
36
6
5,587
0.25 0.53 1.10 1.42 3.30 1.45
- 600 600 -
- -
98%
21%
9% 5% 8% 8% 7% 7%
(1,060)
(934) (2,335)
3,084
1,090
(1,518)
(911)
(1,339)
37%
2%
1%
3 10 14 17 45 20
40 40 40 40 40 40
934 934 934 934 934 934
36,991 36,991 36,991 36,991 36,991 36,991
- - - - 2,746 -
- - - - 6,860 -
36,991 36,991 36,991 36,991 32,876 36,991
40 40 40 40 35 40
71 42 22 17 5 17
518 883 1,692 2,160 6,357 2,227
0.69 0.90 0.92 3.97 0.88 0.82
- - - - - -
107%
20%
3% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4%
(1,339)
- (234) (934) (1,868) (3,036) (1,168)
3,708
501
(1,985)
(1,191)
(2,675)
54%
-7%
-4%
20 21 22 82 22 23
40 40 40 40 40 40
934 934 934 934 934 934
36,991 36,991 36,991 36,991 36,991 36,991
- - - 5,943 - -
- - - 10,101 - -
36,991 36,991 36,991 32,833 36,991 36,991
40 40 40 35 40 40
33 26 25 4 27 29
1,120 1,422 1,453 7,400 1,376 1,289
0.79 1.98 4.48
- - -
89%
13%
3% 7% 5%
(2,675)
(934) (934) (934)
4,187
579
(1,868)
(1,121)
(2,411)
58%
11%
6%
25 28 99
40 40 40
934 934 934
36,991 36,991 36,991
- - 6,883
- - 12,809
36,991 36,991 31,065
40 40 33
30 12 4
1,244 2,964 8,075
EPS 2.62 2.62
NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES
Long term financing 1,876 1,459 1,355
Liabilities against assets subject to financial
lease 6 3 2
Long term murabaha 174 135 126
Deferred tax liability 1,322 2,634 2,833
Long term loan 7,130 6,482 6,482
Check (0) 0 -
2 - 8 10 8
116 106 112 93 77
2,912 3,445 1,227 1,490 1,861
5,834 5,834 6,597 6,216 5,899
2 3 5 6 4
39 39 23 19 16
- - - - -
648 648 648 648 648
- - - - -
9,221 9,049 - 6,467 11,820 17,683
CY10
9,341
228
(2,411)
7,159
214
7
64
2,056
5,638
16,452
6
3,000
44
4
13
-
648
-
20,168
35,305
14,469
-
1,909
10
-
-
3,573
6,062
745
72
4
65
781
810
879
12,809
25,799
42,188
6,883
3,271
(485)
EPS 1.96 2.62 2.62
Cash Flow Statement
Rs mn CY04 CY05 CY06
10 11 13 15
167 166 167 166
1,056 1,153 1,178 1,203
- - - -
631 468 451 407
(600) (600) - -
2 2 3 2
1 4 8 12
- - - -
(291) (404) (441) (483)
1,193 (416) (1,130) 602
6 3 (3) (1)
(39) (23) (19) (16)
(1,245) (2,094) (3,024) (3,011)
(375) (2,934) (4,618) (2,909)
(1,076) 2,232 3,241 2,708
2 7 9 7
EPS 2.72 3.30 3.97
DCF & DDM valuations
Rs mn CY07 CY08 CY09
FCFE 30,269
Fair value / share 32
CAPM
Beta 0.67
Risk free rate 12.95%
Risk premium 5%
Required rate of return 16.30%
3
3
4
4.48
CY10
4,187
1,203
264
(841)
1,630
4,865
264
(485)
4,116
39,960
2,617
25,403
CY10
4.00
43.01
47.01
29.89
40
3
6%
52%
11%
6%
0
0
9%
EPS (3.45) 2.29 1.29
Finance cost
Rs mn FY01 FY02 FY03
Mark up on long term financing
Mark up on long term financing
522,493,000 365,805,000 114,989,000
Fianance charges on plant property - 1,504,000 2,469,000
Mark up on long term murabaha ### 142,618,000 6,032,000
Mark up on ST borrowings 302,813,000 203,835,000 14,987,000
Interest on WPPF - - 101,000
Bank charges 3,662,000 3,511,000 413,000
Exchange loss 38,560,000 10,529,000 7,585,000
Reversal - (681,948,000) -
Other charges 2,428,000 5,178,000 -
Guarantee fee 147,490,000 58,863,000 10,129,000
Interest on supplier's credit - 164,612,000 -
Mark up charged by holding company 96,772,000 47,144,000 -
Mark up on ST
Long term financing 2,919 3,523 2,919
Current portion 1,161 173 208
1,758 3,351 2,710
Rate on lease
Interest on WPPF
Bank charges -88%
Banks loan
PKIC
Long trem murabaha
HBL
Amount outstanding 713,875,000
No of installments remaining 22
No of installments per year 4
Interest rate 9%
Installments 41,496,273
Date Balance
1Q2006 713,875,000
2Q2006 688,440,915
3Q2006 662,434,563
4Q2006 635,843,067
1Q2007 608,653,264
2Q2007 580,851,689
3Q2007 552,424,580
4Q2007 523,357,860
1Q2008 493,637,139
2Q2008 463,247,702
3Q2008 432,174,503
4Q2008 400,402,156
1Q2009 367,914,932
2Q2009 334,696,745
3Q2009 300,731,149
4Q2009 266,001,327
1Q2010 230,490,084
2Q2010 194,179,838
3Q2010 157,052,612
4Q2010 119,090,023
1Q2011 80,273,276
2Q2011 40,583,152
SCB
Amount outstanding 408,210,000
No of installments remaining 22
No of installments per year 4
Interest rate 9%
Installments 23,728,515
Date Balance
1Q2006 408,210,000
2Q2006 393,666,210
3Q2006 378,795,185
4Q2006 363,589,562
1Q2007 348,041,812
2Q2007 332,144,238
3Q2007 315,888,969
4Q2007 299,267,956
1Q2008 282,272,970
2Q2008 264,895,597
3Q2008 247,127,233
4Q2008 228,959,081
1Q2009 210,382,146
2Q2009 191,387,229
3Q2009 171,964,927
4Q2009 152,105,623
1Q2010 131,799,485
2Q2010 111,036,459
3Q2010 89,806,264
4Q2010 68,098,390
1Q2011 45,902,089
2Q2011 23,206,371
MCB
Amount outstanding 703,727,000
No of installments remaining 22
No of installments per year 4
Interest rate 0.09
Installments 40,906,388
Date Balance
1Q2006 703,727,000
2Q2006 678,654,470
3Q2006 653,017,808
4Q2006 626,804,321
1Q2007 600,001,030
2Q2007 572,594,666
3Q2007 544,571,658
4Q2007 515,918,132
1Q2008 486,619,903
2Q2008 456,662,463
3Q2008 426,030,980
4Q2008 394,710,290
1Q2009 362,684,884
2Q2009 329,938,906
3Q2009 296,456,143
4Q2009 262,220,019
1Q2010 227,213,582
2Q2010 191,419,499
3Q2010 154,820,050
4Q2010 117,397,114
1Q2011 79,132,161
2Q2011 40,006,247
ACBL
Amount outstanding 157,143,000
No of installments remaining 22
No of installments per year 4
Interest rate 9%
Installments 9,134,441
Date Balance
1Q2006 157,143,000
2Q2006 151,544,277
3Q2006 145,819,583
4Q2006 139,966,083
1Q2007 133,980,879
2Q2007 127,861,008
3Q2007 121,603,440
4Q2007 115,205,077
1Q2008 108,662,750
2Q2008 101,973,222
3Q2008 95,133,179
4Q2008 88,139,234
1Q2009 80,987,927
2Q2009 73,675,714
3Q2009 66,198,977
4Q2009 58,554,014
1Q2010 50,737,038
2Q2010 42,744,181
3Q2010 34,571,485
4Q2010 26,214,902
1Q2011 17,670,297
2Q2011 8,933,438
SAPICO
Amount outstanding 58,808,000
No of installments remaining 22
No of installments per year 4
Interest rate 0.09
Installments 3,418,404
Date Balance
1Q2006 58,808,000
2Q2006 56,712,776
3Q2006 54,570,410
4Q2006 52,379,841
1Q2007 50,139,984
2Q2007 47,849,730
3Q2007 45,507,946
4Q2007 43,113,471
1Q2008 40,665,120
2Q2008 38,161,682
3Q2008 35,601,917
4Q2008 32,984,556
1Q2009 30,308,305
2Q2009 27,571,838
3Q2009 24,773,801
4Q2009 21,912,808
1Q2010 18,987,443
2Q2010 15,996,257
3Q2010 12,937,769
4Q2010 9,810,466
1Q2011 6,612,797
2Q2011 3,343,182
PKIC
Amount outstanding 251,429,000
No of installments remaining 22
No of installments per year 4
Interest rate 0.09
Installments 14,615,117
Date Balance
1Q2006 251,429,000
2Q2006 242,471,036
3Q2006 233,311,518
4Q2006 223,945,910
1Q2007 214,369,577
2Q2007 204,577,775
3Q2007 194,565,659
4Q2007 184,328,269
1Q2008 173,860,539
2Q2008 163,157,284
3Q2008 152,213,207
4Q2008 141,022,887
1Q2009 129,580,786
2Q2009 117,881,237
3Q2009 105,918,448
4Q2009 93,686,497
1Q2010 81,179,326
2Q2010 68,390,744
3Q2010 55,314,419
4Q2010 41,943,877
1Q2011 28,272,498
2Q2011 14,293,513
0% 0% 4% 1% 2% 2%
0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1%
26% 71% 49% 60% 54%
FY10
45 48
6 4
51 52
(0) 0
5 3
315 107
0 0
10 1
26 9
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
407 173
11%
258
44
214
2%
1%
57%
77
13
64
45
6
5
1Q
54,374,411
-
54,374,411
0
-
51
0
0
2
103
Model Assumptions
CY05 CY06 CY07 1Q-CY08 2Q-CY08 3Q-CY08 4Q-CY08 CY08F 1Q-CY09 2Q-CY09 3Q-CY09
Urea Capacity 551,100 551,100 594,000 159,225 159,225 159,225 159,225 636,900 159,225 159,225 159,225
Urea Production 588,799 601,044 488,000 145,500 159,000 159,000 162,000 636,900 159,225 159,225 159,225
Urea efficiency 107% 109% 82% 91% 100% 100% 102% 100% 100% 100% 100%
DAP capacity 445,500 445,500 457,050 117,645 117,645 117,645 117,645 470,580 168,795 168,795 168,795
DAP production 454,672 450,400 357,000 7,568 156,860 156,860 156,860 470,580 168,795 168,795 168,795
DAP efficiency 102% 101% 110% 6% 133% 133% 133% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Domestic Urea Sales 495,202 497,325 474,191 166,706 84,000 159,000 181,000 590,706 159,225 159,225 159,225
DAP sales 379,254 381,254 351,700 16,763 151,000 154,574 156,861 479,198 168,795 168,795 168,795
Imported Urea sales 64,000 70,400 77,440 8,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 53,000 - - -
Feedstock gas consumed 21,173 21,613 16,790 5,232 5,717 5,717 5,825 22,492 5,726 5,726 5,726
Fuelstock gas consumed 4,547 4,582 3,682 667 1,376 1,376 1,390 4,809 1,429 1,429 1,429
Feedstock/MMBTU 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 109 109 120
FuelStock /MMBTU 228 257 241 252 252 277 277 264 270 275 279
Urea Price 482 513 539 584 602 627 643 614 664 667 680
DAP price 1,000 998 1,090 1,998 3,095 4,022 4,657 3,443 5,274 5,347 5,570
PhosAcid price 445 465 568 576 1,985 2,184 2,402 1,787 2,594 2,750 2,915
DAP % of revenue 60% 57% 59% 25% 89% 85% 85% 76% 89% 89% 90%
Urea % of revenue 40% 43% 41% 80% 12% 16% 16% 25% 12% 12% 12%
Payout ratio 95% 48% 92% 0% 47% 91% 140% 98% 86% 144% 111%
DAP subsidy - - 398 470 470 470 470 470 494 518 544
PhosAcid consumed n/a n/a 176,666 3,745 77,624 77,624 77,624 236,617 83,530 83,530 83,530
Source: Capital One Equities Research, Company reports
Income Statement
CY05 CY06 CY07 1Q-CY08 2Q-CY08 3Q-CY08 4Q-CY08 CY08F 1Q-CY09 2Q-CY09 3Q-CY09
Sales 14,255 14,707 12,243 2,510 9,759 13,532 15,859 41,660 18,444 18,679 19,415
Cost of sales 9,692 10,023 7,420 1,731 8,532 10,518 12,108 32,889 14,453 15,802 16,099
Gross profit 4,563 4,684 4,823 780 1,226 3,014 3,751 8,771 3,991 2,877 3,317
GP margin 32% 32% 39% 31% 13% 22% 24% 21% 22% 15% 17%
Distribution costs 1,258 1,420 1,069 238 901 1,245 1,407 3,791 1,649 1,648 1,726
Administrative expenses 114 103 131 24 97 133 159 413 192 196 207
Finance cost 260 412 631 166 117 117 117 468 113 113 113
Other operating expenses 170 243 344 100 100 100 180 480 110 100 150
Other income 454 552 652 100 155 155 155 620 188 188 188
Compensation from GoP 700 700 600 - 600 - - 600 - - -
EBT 3,915 3,757 3,900 352 766 1,574 2,043 4,735 2,115 1,008 1,309
Tax 1,466 1,312 1,360 123 267 549 712 1,651 756 360 468
EAT 2,449 2,445 2,540 229 499 1,025 1,331 3,084 1,359 647 841
Profit after extraordinary item 2,449 2,445 2,540 229 499 1,025 1,331 3,084 1,359 647 841
EPS (diluted) 2.62 2.62 2.72 0.25 0.53 1.10 1.42 3.30 1.45 0.69 0.90
DPS 2.50 1.25 2.50 - 0.50 1.00 2.00 3.25 1.00 0.75 1.00
Payout ratio 95% 60% 92% 0% 0% 0% 0% 98% 0% 0% 0%
Earnings growth 34% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 0% 0% 0%
Net margins 17% 17% 21% 9% 5% 8% 8% 7% 7% 3% 4%
Source: Capital One Equities Research, Company reports
41
39
-5%
3 6
41
13.14
4Q-CY09 CY09F 1Q-CY10 2Q-CY10 3Q-CY10 4Q-CY10 CY10F
159,225 636,900 159,225 159,225 159,225 159,225 636,900
159,225 636,900 159,318 159,225 159,225 159,225 636,900
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
168,795 675,180 168,795 168,795 168,795 168,795 675,180
168,795 675,180 168,795 168,795 168,795 168,795 675,180
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
159,225 636,900 159,318 159,225 159,225 159,225 636,993
168,795 675,180 168,795 168,795 168,795 168,795 675,180
- - - - - - -
5,726 22,902 5,729 5,726 5,726 5,726 22,906
1,429 5,718 1,430 1,429 1,429 1,429 5,718
122 115 126 126 139 139 132
287 278 297 301 306 315 305
697 677 721 723 738 756 734
5,859 5,513 6,035 6,331 6,706 6,146 6,305
3,089 2,837 3,244 3,439 3,645 3,864 3,548
90% 90% 90% 90% 91% 92% 91%
12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11%
108% 107% 141% 182% 126% 38% 89%
571 532 594 618 643 668 631
83,530 334,121 83,530 83,530 83,530 83,530 334,121