Most of the following tables are told from the perspective of the Genestealer: h

igh probabilities are good for the Genestealer, low probabilities are good for t
he Marine. Unless otherwise noted, all the following data were obtained by hand,
not through simulation.
Table 1. Chance to Survive Overwatch (Storm Bolter)
Spaces No CPs v CPs
1
69.44% 69.44%
2
38.58% 38.58%
3
28.29% 24.05%
4
24.86% 14.45%
5
23.72% 9.34%
6
23.34% 7.00%
The columns indicate whether the space marine has any command points to spend. (
Note that command points have no effect unless the marine is 3 or more spaces aw
ay.) Thus, if you have to move through 1 space of Overwatch fire, your chance of
survival is 69.4%. If you have to move through 4 spaces and the marine has at l
east 1 command point, you chance of survival is only 24.9%. The tables only go o
ut to 6 spaces because that's the maximum distance a Genestealer can move. Also
note that there is a very small probability that a marine who is 5-6 spaces away
will have the opportunity to unjam his gun twice. But in general a space marine
will never need to use more than 1 command point per Genestealer. Further note
that the marine is allowed to jam on the kill shot.
Table 2. Close Combat: Probability of Stealer Victory
Attacks Fist Power Sword
1
65.97% 40.77%
2
76.97% 45.83%
3
78.80% 46.45%
4
79.11% 46.53%
5
79.16% 46.54%
Thus if you can attack 3 times, your chance of killing a marine armed with a Pow
er Fist is 78.80%. Note that the increase is negligible after 3 attacks. In othe
r words, it is very unlikely that the battle will last more than one or two roun
ds. Regarding the Power Sword, note that these values disagree significantly wit
h values that have been reported in other threads. (Use at your own risk.) Also,
as far as parrying ties, you should parry 4s and 5s. (I.e., you rolled a 3 or a
4, which become a 4 and a 5, respectively.) This is because your probability of
surviving the parry (67% if you tied on a 4, 83% if you tied on 5) is significa
ntly higher than your chance of surviving the next time the Genestealer attacks
you.
Table 3. Overall Chance to Kill a Storm Bolter in Overwatch
Spaces No CPs v CPs
1
54.97% 54.97%
2
30.52% 30.52%
3
22.29% 18.95%
4
19.14% 11.12%
5
15.65% 6.16%
This table gives the probability that a single Genestealer will survive Overwatc
h and defeat the Marine in close combat. The values are obtained simply by multi
plying the values in Table 1 with Table 2. Thus if you have to move through 3 sp
aces of Overwatch, the chance of killing the marine is 22.29% if he has no comma
nd points and 18.95% if he has command points. Note that because of the possibil
ity that the marine will jam on the kill shot (and for other reasons), you canno
t simply multiply these values together to obtain the collective probability of
several Genestealers attacking in succession.
Table 4. Overall Chance to Kill Sergeant Lorenzo in Overwatch
Spaces No CPs v CPs

1
32.32% 32.32%
2
17.95% 17.95%
3
13.14% 11.17%
4
11.39% 6.62%
5
9.67%
3.81%
This is the same as table 3, except that it accounts for Sergeant Lorenzo's supe
rior close combat capabilities. It would be worthwhile to compare this table wit
h Lorenzo's Guard performance, to see whether it is better to put him in Guard o
r in Overwatch.
Table 5. Corner: Chance that at Least One Genestealer Will Survive Overwatch (St
orm Bolter)
Number of Genestealers
Spaces
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
69.44% 91.51% 97.64% 99.35% 99.82% 99.95%
2
38.58% 65.88% 81.04% 89.47% 94.15%
3
28.29% 53.52% 69.88% 80.48%
4
24.86% 48.98% 65.36%
5
23.72% 47.42%
6
23.34%
This table gives the probability that at least one Genestealer out of several wi
ll survive Overwatch fire (and thus be in position to attack the marine). Thus i
f you have 3 Genestealers and the marine is 2 spaces away, there is an 81.04% ch
ance that at least one will survive Overwatch. It is assumed that the Genesteale
rs are all lined up behind a corner and that the marine is X spaces down the ben
d, such that all the Genestealers have the same exposure to Overwatch fire. The
probability of actually killing the marine in close combat is not included. Note
that it is also assumed that the marines will not spend any command points.
Table 6. Chance to Survive Overwatch (Assault Cannon)
Spaces Chance
1
29.6 %
2
3.7 %
3
0.5 %
4
0.1 %
5
0.01 %
6
0.001%
This table gives the probability that a single Genestealer will survive the Assa
ult Cannon. Note that attacking the Assault Cannon beyond 1 space is not a good
idea. (Do not try this at home.)
Table 7. Assault Cannon: Average Number of Kills
Kills Chance Kills Chance
5
4%
7-8
60%
6
16%
6-9
92%
7
30%
5-10
99%
8
30%
9
16%
10
3%
These tables gives the expected number of hits (out of 10) you will get with the
Assault Cannon. The possibility of the cannon exploding after the reload is ign
ored. Thus you will almost never score fewer than 6 kills out of 10 shots, and y
ou are likely to score 8 or even 9.
Table 8. Probability to Destroy a Door with Gunfire
Shots StormB Assault C
1
30.6% 42.1%
2
51.8% 66.5%
3
66.5% 80.6%
4
76.7% 88.8%

5
6
7
8
9
10
Just in

83.8% 93.5%
88.8% 96.2%
92.2% 97.8%
94.6% 98.7%
96.2% 99.3%
97.4% 99.6%
case you wanted to know.