DDIx Rare Earth Elements DA

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Solar panels require rare metals- an increase in the production
means an increase in mining
Yale Environment 13 (Nicola Jones, A Scarcity of Rare Metals Is Hindering
Green Technologies Nov 18, a freelance journalist based in Pemberton, British
Columbia, just outside of Vancouver. With a background in chemistry and
oceanography, she writes about the physical sciences, most often for the journal
Nature. She has also contributed to Scientific American, Globe and Mail, and New
Scientist and serves as the science journalist in residence at the University of British
Columbia. Previously for Yale Environment 360, she wrote about the challenges
ofpredicting sea level rise far into the future.

Now you can make a more reliable wind turbine that doesnt need a gearbox at all,
King points out, but you need a truckload of so-called "rare earth" metals to do it,
and there simply isnt the supply. Likewise, we could all be using next-generation
fluorescent light bulbs that are twice as efficient as the current standard. But when
the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) tried to make that switch in 2009, companies
like General Electric cried foul: they wouldnt be able to get hold of enough rare
earths to make the new bulbs. The move toward new and better technologies
from smart phones to electric cars means an ever-increasing demand for exotic
metals that are scarce thanks to both geology and politics. Thin, cheap solar panels
need tellurium, which makes up a scant 0.0000001 percent of the earths crust,
making it three times rarer than gold. High-performance batteries need lithium,
which is only easily extracted from briny pools in the Andes.

Solar cells requires rare earth metals- but tech diffusion of

solar panels would deplete crucial rare earth metals
Cho 12 (Renee Cho is a receiver of the Executive Education Certificate in
Conservation and Sustainability from the Earth Institute Center for Environmental
Sustainability and aCommunications Coordinator for Riverkeeper and the Hudson
River environmental organization, Rare Earth Metals: Will We Have Enough?,
September 19th 2012, http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/09/19/rare-earth-metalswill-we-have-enough/, AG)
Life in the 21st century wouldnt be the same without rare earth metals. Cell
phones, iPads, laptops, televisions, hybrid cars, wind turbines, solar cells and many
more products depend on rare earth metals to function . Will there be enough for us to continue
our high-tech lifestyle and transition to a renewable energy economy? Do we need to turn to deep seabed or
asteroid mining to meet future demand? To

provide most of our power through renewables

would take hundreds of times the amount of rare earth metals that we are mining
today, said Thomas Graedel, Clifton R. Musser Professor of Industrial Ecology and professor of geology and
geophysics at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies. There is no firm definition of rare earth metals,
but the term generally refers to metals used in small quantities. Rare earth metals include: rare earth elements17

elements in the periodic table, the 15 lanthanides plus scandium and yttrium; six platinum group elements; and
other byproduct metals that occur in copper, gold, uranium, phosphates, iron or zinc ores. While many rare earth
metals are actually quite common, they are seldom found in sufficient amounts to be extracted economically.

According to a recent Congressional Research Service report, world demand for rare
earth metals is estimated to be 136,000 tons per year, and projected to rise to at
least 185,000 tons annually by 2015. With continued global growth of the middle
class, especially in China, India and Africa, demand will continue to grow. High-tech
products and renewable energy technology cannot function without rare earth
metals. Neodymium, terbium and dysprosium are essential ingredients in the magnets of wind turbines and
computer hard drives; a number of rare earth metals are used in nickel-metal-hydride rechargeable batteries that
power electric vehicles and many other products; yttrium is necessary for color TVs, fuel cells and fluorescent
lamps; europium is a component of compact fluorescent bulbs and TV and iPhone screens; cerium and lanthanum
are used in catalytic converters; platinum group metals are needed as catalysts in fuel cell technology; and other

rare earth metals are essential for solar cells, cell phones, computer chips, medical
imaging, jet engines, defense technology, and much more . Wind power has grown around 7
percent a year, increasing by a factor of 10 over the last decade, noted Peter Kelemen, Arthur D. Storke Memorial
Professor of Geochemistry at the Earth Institutes Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. Every megawatt of
electricity needs 200 kilograms of neodymiumor 20 percent of one ton, he said. So if every big wind turbine
produces one megawatt, five turbines will require one ton of neodymium. If wind is going to play a major part in
replacing fossil fuels, we will need to increase our supply of neodymium. A recent MIT study projected that
neodymium demand could grow by as much as 700 percent over the next 25 years; demand for dysprosium, also
needed for wind turbines, could increase by 2,600 percent.

Environment Impact
R.E.M mining leads to environmental degradation.
Bonds and Downey 12 (Eric Bonds & Liam Downey, University of Mary
Washington & University of Colorado at Boulder, Green Technology and
Ecologically Unequal Exchange: The Environmental and Social Consequences of
Ecological Modernization in the World-System,
http://jwsr.pitt.edu/ojs/index.php/jwsr/article/view/482/494, Summer 2012) CJun
It is important to note that we are not claiming that the violence associated with
copper mining in Indonesia and Ecuador, and with nickel mining in Indonesia, New
Caledonia, and Guatemala, is necessarily connected with hybrid vehicle production.
However, because hybrid vehicles currently use much larger quantities of these
minerals compared to conventional vehicles, the large-scale replacement of
conventional autos with hybrids will increase demand and likely exacerbate the
environmental destruction and violence associated with copper and nickel mining.
The large-scale production of hybrids may increase demand for other minerals as
well, raising similar concerns. For instance, hybrid cars currently utilize an estimated
20 kilograms (44 pounds) of rare earth minerals for the rechargeable battery pack
alone, far more than that used in conventional vehicles (National Research Council
2008). Rare earth minerals are mined almost exclusively in Inner Mongolia and
Southeastern China. Inner Mongolia is a mineral-rich area colonized by China, where
pastoral Mongolians have long been targeted by government repression (Sneath
2000) and, more recently, have been forcibly moved from their land and resettled
(York 2008). In Southeastern China, rare earth mines are some of most
environmentally damaging in the country, producing toxic and
radioactive waste that contaminates water and soils, destroying rice and
aquiculture production (Bradsher 2009). Furthermore, hybrid vehicle
manufacturers may increasingly use lithium-ion batteries, which are lighter-weight
and have greater energy-storage capacities compared to nickelcadmium batteries.
But here too increased demand might mean increased environmental degradation
and state violence, given that some of the worlds largest lithium reserves are found
in Chinese-occupied Tibet (Ladurantaye 2008). Colonized people rarely passively
accept the extraction of wealth from land they claim as their historic right, nor do
they often passively accept the environmental degradation that accompanies it
(Geddicks 1992; Klare 2002). The presence of large amounts of lithium in Tibet
then, combined with the Chinese states willingness to utilize violence to extract
mineral resources, means that the widespread commercialization of hybrid vehicles
may pose increased hardships for the people of that region. Taken together, these
cases suggest that increasing demand for hybrid cars and, as a result, increasing
demand for certain minerals critical to their production will result in the
displacement of environmental harm across nations from the core to the
periphery. If hybrid vehicles largely replaced conventional vehicles in cardependent wealthy nations, these nations may produce less air pollution and
greenhouse gas emissions. It is no simple accounting practice to determine if these

gains outweigh the increased environmental degradation and human rights abuses
people living near copper, nickel, lithium, and rare earth mineral deposits would
likely face. The case of hybrid vehicle technology underscores the importance of
placing inequality and aspects of uneven development at the center of any analysis
of the possible benefits and harms of the widespread adoption of green
technologies in the world-system.

Human Rights Impact

R.E.M mining leads to the violation of human rights and
disenfranchises less economically powerful nations.
Bonds and Downey 12 (Eric Bonds & Liam Downey, University of Mary
Washington & University of Colorado at Boulder, Green Technology and
Ecologically Unequal Exchange: The Environmental and Social Consequences of
Ecological Modernization in the World-System,
http://jwsr.pitt.edu/ojs/index.php/jwsr/article/view/482/494, Summer 2012) CJun
In all of these cases, we demonstrate that the extraction of natural resources used
in green technologies in core nations is often accompanied by severe
environmental degradation in the periphery or semi-periphery. In some instances, as
in the case of extraction for platinum group metals in South Africa, this
environmental degradation is local. In other instances, as with the extraction of pgm
and nickel in Russia or the creation of palm oil plantations in Malaysia or Indonesia,
the environmental destruction is extremely widespread. We further establish that
much of the extraction of natural resources used in green automobile
technologies is associated with state violence and abuses of human rights. In some
of these instances, the violation of human rights is in the form of restrictions on
travel and free speech, as in Russia. In other instances, the violation of human
rights is much more severeinvolving direct violence, dispossession, and
sometimes deathas in Indonesia, South Africa, Malaysia, and the Democratic
Republic of the Congo. While documenting associations between the extraction of
natural resources that may be used for green technologies in the core and human
rights violations and environmental degradation in peripheral regions of the world
does not prove causation, it does provide a useful theoretical exercise that
contributes to understandings of ecologically unequal exchange within the worldsystems perspective, while also adding to existing critiques of ecological
modernization theory. The extraction of critical raw materials for green
technologies and their transfer from the relatively poor to the relatively wealthy
constitutes a variety of ecologically unequal exchange. Because core nations have a
privileged position in the world-system due to the strength of their economies, their
military power, and the functioning of international financial institutions and trade
agreements, they are able to utilize peripheral and semi-peripheral regions as
sources for raw materials and as pollution sinks. The structure and operation
of the world-system means, therefore, that processes of ecological
modernization in the core, which might result in real domestic
environmental improvements as in the case of catalytic converters , can
displace environmental harm onto the people of less economically and
politically powerful regions of the world.

China Japan Stuff??

Japanese discovery of huge REMs deposits in disputed SCS
waters competes with Chinese monopoly on rare earth metals
Evans-Pritchard 13 [Ambrose, International Business Editor of The Daily
Telegraph. He has covered world politics and economics for 30 years, based in
Europe, the US, and Latin America. He joined the Telegraph in 1991, serving as
Washington correspondent and later Europe correspondent in Brussels, Japan
breaks China's stranglehold on rare metals with sea-mud bonanza, The Telegraph,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9951299/Jap
an-breaks-Chinas-stranglehold-on-rare-metals-with-sea-mud-bonanza.html]
Beijing shocked the world when it suddenly began to restrict exports in 2009,
prompting furious protests and legal complaints by both the US and the EU at the
World Trade Organisation. China claimed that it was clamping down on smuggling
and environmental abuse.
"Their real intention is to force foreign companies to locate plant in China. They're
saying `if you want our rare earth metals, you must build your factory here, and we
can then steal your technology," said professor Kato. The team of scientists from
Japan's Agency for Marine-Earth Science and the University of Tokyo first discovered
huge reserves in the mid-Pacific two years ago. These are now thought to be 1000
times all land-based deposits, some of it in French waters around Tahiti. The latest
discovery is in Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone in deep-sea mud around the island
of Minami-Torishima at 5,700 meters below sea level. Although it is very deep, the
deposits are in highly-concentrated nodules that can be extracted using pressurised
air with minimal disturbance off the seafloor and no need for the leaching. Professor
Kato said exploration will continue for another two years before scaling up towards
production. Over 50pc of the metal in the deposit is the heavier end of the
spectrum, twice the level of China's key mines and without the radioactive byproduct thorium that makes the metals so hard to mine. Japan consumes half the
world's rare earth metals in its cars, electronics, and environmental industries, and
has accused China of withholding supplies as a pressure tool. The country has been
scrambling to find other sources under its "Strategy for Ensuring Stable Supplies of
Rare Metals", but a joint venture in Vietnam that once looked promising has so far
yielded only lighter rare earths. Professor Kato said a single ship drilling in the
target zone at Minami-Torishima could supply Japan's needs for a year, breaking
strategic dependence at minimal cost. "We don't need to mine it intensively. All we
need is enough to force China to lower its prices." Rare earth metals are the salt of
life for the hi-tech revolution, used in iPads, plasma TVs, lasers, and catalytic
converters for car engines. Dysprosium is crucial because it is the strongest magnet
in the world but also remains stable at very high temperatures. Neodymium is used
in hybrid cars, and terbium cuts power use for low-energy lightbulbs by 40pc. The
metals are also used in precision-guided weapons, missiles such as the Hellfire,
military avionics, satellites, and night-vision equipment. America's M1A2 Abrams
tank and the Aegis Spy-1 radar both rely on samarium.

Japan will take an aggressive stance combining military and

economic expansion in the South China Sea over rare earth
metals escalates tensions
Investor Intel 14 [One of the most trusted sources of reliable information at
the forefront of emerging markets that brings investment opportunities to
discerning investors, The escalating arms race in South East Asia, China and Japan
and the impact on rare earths, Investor Intel, 5/9/14,
http://investorintel.com/technology-metals-intel/escalating-arms-race-south-eastasia-china-japan-impact-rare-earths/]
Japan will surely take advantage of the Philippines concern over Chinese
hegemonic pretensions to regain prominence in the South China Sea and East Africa
within a multinational framework backed by the United States. This contrasts with
the individualistic approach taken on by various countries in the region from South
Korea to Australia and others, engaging in random military buildups to confront the
common fear of Chinese expansionism and North Korean threats. Japan, rather,
wants a more complex approach that combines military expansion with access to
economic opportunities, trying to ensure the growth of its business activities
abroad, especially through the defense of their trade routes preferred , first of all
those who cross the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca. This policy sharply
contrasts with Japans reliance on Chinese rare earths. It does, however, suggest
that Japan will become even more active in promoting new rare earth sources and
processing facilities. China, which plans to challenge the World Trade Organizations
ruling against its policy of trade restrictions on rare earths, will have more reason to
treat these elements as strategic.

China and Japan war is fully possible and likely

Mizokami 15 (Kyle, June 27, 3 Ways China and Japan could go to war Kyle
Mizokami is an expert writer and author for the National Interest, as well as other
journals- he writes on defense and security issues in Asia, especially Japan)
China and Japan have gone to war three times since 1894 . At the end of the Second
World War, with Japan in ruins and under Allied control, it seemed unlikely the two
countries would ever fight again. War between the two countries seemed even more
unlikely after the adoption of Japans pacifist constitution, which disavows war as an
instrument of national policy. At the time, China was a poor, largely agrarian society
barely capable of defending itself. The rise of China over the last thirty years has
dispelled the notion that the two powers will never fight again. Chinas military,
fueled by decades of double-digit budget increases, is now the regions largest. At
the same time, the two countries are on the opposite side of several regional issues.
China and Japan are at loggerheads over the Diaoyu (Senkaku in Japan) Islands, and
Japan opposes Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea. Chinese support for
North Korea and Russia is also at odds with Japans opposition to many of their
policies. There are three ways China and Japan might go to war: directly against one
another, a war in which Japan is drawn into conflict as an American ally, and a

situation involving North Korea. The most likely way war could break out between
the two powers is through an escalating crisis. China and Japan both station Coast
Guard ships in and around the Senkaku Islands. The deployment of minimally-armed
Coast Guard vessels by both sides is a useful way of showing the flag and thus
backing territorial claims without involving military forces. Still, the possibility of
escalation exists. One side might as a gesture of resolve replace Coast Guard
ships with military ones. Such a move would almost certainly be reciprocated by the
other side. Flyovers, warning shots, ramming and other shows of force could quickly
escalate such a gesture beyond either sides control. The deployment of Japanese
and Chinese air and naval assets around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands could be the
most dangerous standoff since the Cuban Missile Crisis, by two powers not
particularly experienced in brinksmanship. Conflict between the two countries might
also break out by accident, triggered by non-state actors. Nationalist sentiments for
the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands run deeply in China and to a lesser extent Japan. In
fact, Chinese activists briefly landed on the islands in 2012. Another, more forceful
landing of activists or even a fishing boat landing on one of the islands in distress
could result in one side forcibly evicting the citizens of the other. The Chinese
government may find footage of Japanese police arresting its citizens on territory it
claims intolerable, thus prompting Beijing to respond militarily. US-China conflict
The United States and Japan have been close allies for more than fifty years. The
two countries are in virtual lockstep on many issues, such as the South China Sea
and the need to defend against a North Korean missile attack. Unlike previous wars
in Vietnam and Southeast Asia, todays hotspots in Asia that are important to the
United States are just as important if not more so to Japan. The United States
and Japan have been presenting a united front in the South and East China Seas.
Close political and military cooperation means it is more likely the two will go to war
together in Asia rather than separately.In late April of this year, U.S. Secretary of
State John Kerry stated that the U.S. security agreement with Japan remains
ironclad and covers all territories under Japans administration, including the
Senkaku Islands. It is clear that any aggressive action by China against the
Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands will involve U.S. forces from the outset. The United States
and Japan might also go to war with North Korea. While Japan will likely not be
directly involved in any fighting, it would almost certainly extend logistical support
to U.S. forces. Such a war could very well draw in China, which has repeatedly
stated it would find American forces north of the 38th parallel intolerable. A
situation might even arise in which Japan is not a voluntary belligerent, but gets
sucked into war with China anyway. A free and democratic Japan guarantees
periodic changes in foreign policy, and not every change will go with the grain of
U.S. policy.

China-Japan war would draw in the US and escalate into war.

Pappalardo 13 (Joe Pappalardo, University of Missouri-Columbia &
writer for popular mechanics, Here's What a Shooting War in the East
China Sea Might Look Like Tensions are escalating as China tries to claim
new turf. Here's what to expect if the cold war involving Japan, China, the
U.S., and other East Asian nations heats up.,

http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a9722/heres-what-a-shooting-war-in-theeast-china-sea-might-look-like-16205950/, Nov 27, 2013) CJun

Don't let the name fool youJapan's

Self Defense Forces are pretty advanced war fighters.

Over the decades the island nation has built up the most formidable military in Asia.
China has been pouring money into its military to match some of Japan's U.S.-made
equipment, but the Japanese have better ships and airplanes. The United States is
bound by treaty to protect Japan if it is attacked , but pundits debate whether the events in the
East China Sea meet that standard. And both Japan and the U.S. are already war-weary and hoping the situation
cools down. The lull after the air battle is deceptive. While China is itching to prove itself as a regional hegemon, its
military does not want to launch headlong into a fight for airspace it will lose. So it turns to other tactics, even as

Chinese submarinesquiet dieselelectric models

that are hard to spot in the shallowsbegin to lay mines. This would be easier to do by air, but
diplomats discuss ways to ease tensions.

the Chinese don't have air superiority, and want to block Japanese ships from nearing the contested islands. This
move will keep Japanese and American warships from getting close to the islands, a necessary condition in case
China wants to land troops. It also hampers Japanese and American air operations by keeping naval radar out of the
area. (Not to mention the inability to rescue pilots downed in any future air battle. And the pilots would become
diplomatic bargaining chips upon capture.) A Chinese navy submarine docked on the Huangpu River. China has no
shortage of mines. A 2012 paper by the U.S. Naval War College cited a Chinese article claiming the nation has more
than 50,000 mines, including "over 30 varieties of contact, magnetic, acoustic, water pressure and mixed reaction
sea mines, remote control sea mines, rocket-rising and mobile mines." The smartest mines in the inventory would
be the most useful to the Chinese. They can be programmed to rise and strike ships with particular acoustic and
magnetic signatures. The mines can also be remotely activated. China could lace the sea lanes with these and wait
for the order to be givena public warning to all in the East China Sea to keep out. The United States is good at

When Americans find Chinese subs deploying mines in areas

where U.S. carrier groups will be operating, they try to force them to the surface.
Under the water, U.S. submarines outgun the Chinese. They try to run, try to hide,
and ultimately scuttle their ships with all hands lost. China activates the mines in
anger and to save facea retreat right now would humiliate the army and central
government. A death spiral of war ensues. Ships explode. Sailors burn to death and drown.
sniffing out submarines.

There is a call from Taiwan and Japan to degrade the Chinese navy, to strip them of their assets with air strikes and
cruise missiles. Leaks in Washington, D.C., hint at a forceful plan. Knowing what the U.S. and Japanese militaries can
do if given time to prepare, and knowing they are underdogs in the fight,

the Chinese military have

good reason to consider a preemptive strike.

Japan and China tensions on the brink of war.

Douglas 14 (Hilary Douglas is a news reporter for the Sunday Express, and served
as a management editor for Sunday Business, China and Japan on the brink of
Third World War, http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/462565/China-and-Japanon-the-brink-of-Third-World-War)

As China flexes its military might, with huge increases in defence spending
and increasingly assertive patrols in disputed territories, Japan has
compared the tensions to those between England and Germany before the
First World War. So far it has been a war of words. However, historian Niall
Ferguson has warned that US President Barack Obamas policy of non-intervention,
or, as he puts it, his being resolved only to avoid being George W Bush, also

resembles the incoherent foreign policies of British Liberals a century ago before the
First World War. Against this background, a dispute over five uninhabited islands and
three barren rocks looks increasingly dangerous. China views the nationalisation
of what it calls the Diaoyu Islands by the Japanese in 2012 as a serious provocation
and will do whatever is necessary to assert its sovereignty. Japan, meanwhile, which
calls the territory the Senkaku Islands, is using an ever increasing number of naval
ships and warplanes to guard them and is trying to involve the US. If war were to
break out, the US is bound by treaty to come to the aid of Japan. President
Barack Obama has already reaffirmed his recognition of Japan exercising its
administrative rights over the Senkaku Islands. The mounting unease between
the two nations was made abundantly clear at the World Economic Forum in
Davos. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe used his keynote speech to take a very
public jab at China. He didnt name Japans old rival, but called for restrained
military expansion in Asia. China has had double-digit increases in defence spending
each year for the past decade, but Abe warned: The dividend of growth in Asia
must not be wasted on military expansion. If peace and stability were shaken
in Asia, the knock-on effect for the entire world would be enormous. Abe
probably sees China as a modern-day imperial Germany that is prone to aggressive
behaviour Brad Williams, a professor of Asian and International Studies at the City University of Hong Kong At the start of the year he also made his comparison to the
tensions that led to the Great War. Brad Williams, a professor of Asian and International Studies at the City University of Hong Kong, said: Abe probably sees China
as a modern-day imperial Germany that is prone to aggressive behaviour.
That, of course, could trigger conflict despite the deep economic interdependence between the two countries. China, predictably, was furious. Its
Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang responded: What is the significance of
making such comparisons? He suggested it was better for Japan to reflect on the
atrocities its soldiers committed during the bloodthirsty invasion of China in 1937.
In recent days, China has stepped up its efforts to embarrass Japan on the
world stage with plans to create a new holiday to mark the Nanjing
massacre, when Japanese troops murdered and raped tens of thousands of
Chinese. Japans leaders have repeatedly expressed regret for their
wartime actions in Asia, but the wounds run deep in China. However,
Chinese president Xi Jinping, is due to visit Germany late next month as part of a
European tour and it seems Beijing wants to emphasise wartime atrocities by
suggesting a presidential visit to Berlins Holocaust Memorial. In increasingly bizarre
interjections, both the Chinese and Japanese ambassadors to Britain have compared
each others military ambitions to Harry Potter villain Lord Voldemort. Tokyo
Foundation research fellow Bonji Ohara believes an escalation to serious violence is
unlikely. He says politicians on both sides are merely playing to a domestic audience. He added: The United States, of course, doesnt want to have a
military clash in this region so it will stop both sides fighting. Washington
and Beijing are engaged in diplomatic efforts but it is thought the White
House does agree with Japans insistence that escalation could be avoided
if it had emergency military hotlines with China.

Aff

Alternative Sources
Foreign REMs capacity greater than in China
Crooks 14 [Ed, US industry and energy editor at Financial Times and graduate of
the University of Oxford, Chinas grip over rare earths market wanes, Financial
Times, https://next.ft.com/content/7a05993a-5864-11e4-b331-00144feab7de]
Eugene Gholz, an economist at the University of Texas who worked on rare earths at
the Pentagon in 2010-12, said in a Council on Foreign Relations report that high
prices encouraged investment in those non-Chinese suppliers. Molycorp restarted
production at a rare earths mine in California, and Lynas opened a processing plant
in Malaysia, helped by support from the Japanese government. Non-Chinese
supplies are more readily available for light rare earths such as lanthanum and
praseodymium than for heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and europium.
However, for those scarcer materials Chinese export restrictions were not fully
effective, and small producers continued to sell to other countries in spite of the
official curbs. There is also now more processing capacity outside China. Rhodia of
France is able to extract heavy rare earths from ore supplied by Molycorp and Lynas.
Non-Chinese production of heavy rare earths could increase if the economics were
more favourable.

REMs Unsustainable
China cant maintain its R.E.M supply
Veronese 15 (Keith Vernoese, PhD in Chemistry from the University of
Alabama,
Global supplies of rare earths are more uneven still: China controls more than 95
percent of rare-earth-metal exports. That could change though, not least because
China is about to run out. Current projections estimate Chinas domestic
appetite for rare earth metals will top 130,000 metric tons as early as this
year, a number exceeding Chinas current total rare-earth-metal exports.
Even with existing stockpiles and untapped reserves within its borders, it
will be difficult for China to continue to provide the world with an
affordable supply of these indispensable elements.

REMs Inevitable
Rare earth metals are used in thousands of other technologies
their use is inevitable
NRE N.d. [Namibia Rare Earths Inc, a Canadian rare earth company, How Are Rare Earths
Used? http://www.namibiarareearths.com/rare-earths-industry.asp]

There are 17 elements found on the earth that are classified as rare earth elements
(REE). While the word "rare may make you think that these elements are scarce,
they are in fact found all over our planet but typically in small amounts. The term
"rare earth comes from their initial discovery in which only tiny portions of these
minerals could be isolated from larger quantities of still more common elements.
Today, "rare earth is used to describe any of the 15 metallic chemical elements
with atomic numbers from 57 to 71 (called "lanthanides) and the chemically similar
elements scandium and yttrium. The global demand for rare earths has increased as
more uses for these elements are found. Today there are hundreds of uses for REE,
ranging from high tech (lasers, camera lenses, computer memory modules, x-ray
machines), energy (batteries, lamps, superconductors) and industrial (aerospace,
caustic cleaning agents, specialized glass) applications. Rare earths elements are
also being used for a growing number of applications. At the forefront of this wave
of discovery are new technologies being developed for computer science uses,
industrial engineering, renewable energy sciences and military applications. Here
are a few examples of how rare earth elements are being utilized in the world today:
Electronics: Television screens, computers, cell phones, silicon chips, monitor
displays, long-life rechargeable batteries, camera lenses, light emitting diodes
(LEDs), compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs), baggage scanners, marine propulsion
systems. Manufacturing: High strength magnets, metal alloys, stress gauges,
ceramic pigments, colorants in glassware, chemical oxidizing agent, polishing
powders, plastics creation, as additives for strengthening other metals, automotive
catalytic converters. Medical Science: Portable x-ray machines, x-ray tubes,
magnetic resonance imagery (MRI) contrast agents, nuclear medicine imaging,
cancer treatment applications, and for genetic screening tests, medical and dental
lasers. Technology: Lasers, optical glass, fiber optics, masers, radar detection
devices, nuclear fuel rods, mercury-vapor lamps, highly reflective glass, computer
memory, nuclear batteries, high temperature superconductors. Renewable Energy:
Hybrid automobiles, wind turbines, next generation rechargeable batteries, biofuel
catalysts. Other interesting facts about uses for rare earths: The rare earth element
europium is being used as a way to identify legitimate bills for the Euro bill supply
and to dissuade counterfeiting. An estimated 1 kg of rare earth elements can be
found inside a typical hybrid automobile. Holmium has the highest magnetic
strength of any element and is used to create extremely powerful magnets. This
application can reduce the weight of many motors.

Cuts in Demand
Rare earth metal demand is being reduced
Crooks 14 [Ed, US industry and energy editor at Financial Times and graduate of
the University of Oxford, Chinas grip over rare earths market wanes, Financial
Times, https://next.ft.com/content/7a05993a-5864-11e4-b331-00144feab7de]
Users have also found ways to reduce their demand. For example dysprosium,
which is used as an additive in advanced magnets, is needed in relatively large
quantities for electric cars, but for other applications its use could be reduced
sharply. Hitachi and a joint venture of Mitsubishi, Daido Steel, and Molycorp are
building factories for low-dysprosium magnets, Mr Gholz says. Cuts in commercial
uses can free up more supply for critical strategic uses. The proportion of rare earth
demand used for military equipment varies from element to element, but in the US
is typically less than 10 per cent of the market.

No Link
No Link Solar panels can be made without rare earth metals
ACS 12 (American Chemical Society, New Solar Panels Made With More Common
Metals Could be Cheaper and More Sustainable, August 21st 2012,
https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/pressroom/newsreleases/2012/august/new-solarpanels-made-with-more-common-metals-could-be-cheaper-and-moresustainable.html, AG)
scientists today
described advances toward the less-expensive solar energy technology needed to
roof many of those homes with shingles that generate electricity. Shingles that
generate electricity from the sun, and can be installed like traditional roofing,
already are a commercial reality. But the advance a new world performance
record for solar cells made with earth-abundant materials could make them
more affordable and ease the integration of photovoltaics into other parts of buildings, the scientists said.
With enough sunlight falling on home roofs to supply at least half of Americas electricity,

Their report was part of a symposium on sustainability at the 244th National Meeting & Exposition of the American
Chemical Society, the worlds largest scientific society, being held here this week. Abstracts of other presentations
appear below. Sustainability involves developing technology that can be productive over the long-term, using
resources in ways that meet todays needs without jeopardizing the ability of future generations to meet their
needs, said Harry A. Atwater, Ph.D., one of the speakers. Thats exactly what we are doing with these new solar-

The new photovoltaic technology uses abundant, lessexpensive materials like copper and zinc earth-abundant materials instead of
indium, gallium and other so-called rare earth elements. These substances not
only are scarce, but are supplied largely by foreign countries, with China mining
more than 90 percent of the rare earths needed for batteries in hybrid cars, magnets, electronics
and other high-tech products. Atwater and James C. Stevens, Ph.D., described successful efforts to
replace rare earth and other costly metals in photovoltaic devices with materials
that are less-expensive and more sustainable.
energy conversion devices.

No link abundant and inexpensive alternative materials make

better solar solar panels higher efficiency and thinner films
Dhakal 16 [Tara, Assistant Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering,
Binghamton University, Getting more energy from the sun: how to make better solar
cells, The Conversation, 5/4/16, https://theconversation.com/getting-more-energyfrom-the-sun-how-to-make-better-solar-cells-54090, Accessed 7/1/16]//CZ
Researchers from around the world are working to develop solar cell technologies that are efficient and affordable.
The goal is to bring the installation cost of solar electricity below US$1 per watt, compared to about $3 per watt

we are investigating ways

solar cells using materials that are abundant in nature and nontoxic. We
want to develop solar cells that are reliable, highly efficient at converting sunlight to
electricity and inexpensive to manufacture . We have identified two materials that have
great potential as solar absorbers: pyrite, better known as fools gold because of its metallic luster;
and copper-zinc-tin-sulfide (CZTS). Todays commercial solar cells are made from one of three
today. At Binghamton Universitys Center for Autonomous Solar Power (CASP),

to make

thin film

materials: silicon, cadmium telluride (CdTe) and copper-indium-gallium-selenide (CIGS). Each has strengths and

Silicon solar cells are highly efficient, converting up to 25 percent of the sunlight
that falls on them into electricity, and very durable. However, it is very expensive to process
silicon into wafers. And these wafers have to be very thick (about 0.3 millimeters,
weaknesses.

which is thick for solar cells) to absorb all of the sunlight that falls on them, which further increases costs.
Silicon solar cells often referred to as first-generation solar cells are used in the panels that have become
familiar sights on rooftops. Our center is studying another type called thin film solar cells, which are the next
generation of solar technology. As their name suggests, thin film solar cells are made by putting a thin layer of solar
absorbent material over a substrate, such as glass or plastic, which typically can be flexible. These solar cells use
less material, so they are less expensive than crystalline solar cells made from silicon. It is not possible to coat
crystalline silicon on a flexible substrate, so we need a different material to use as a solar absorber. Although thin
film solar technology is improving rapidly, some of the materials in todays thin film solar cells are scarce or
hazardous. For example, the cadmium in CdTe is highly toxic to all living things and is known to cause cancer in
humans. CdTe can separate into cadmium and tellurium at high temperatures (for example, in a laboratory or

pyrite and CZTS because they are

nontoxic and very inexpensive. CZTS costs about 0.005 cents per watt, and pyrite
costs a mere 0.000002 cents per watt. They also are among the most abundant
materials in the Earths crust, and absorb the visible spectrum of sunlight efficiently.
These films can be as thin as 1/1000th of a millimeter. We need to crystallize these materials
housefire), posing a serious inhalation risk. We are working with

before we can fabricate them into solar cells. This is done by heating them. CZTS crystallizes at temperatures under
600 degree Celsius, compared to 1,200 degrees Celsius or higher for silicon, which makes it less expensive to
process. It performs much like high-efficiency copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) solar cells, which are
commercially available now, but replaces the indium and gallium in these cells with cheaper and more abundant
zinc and tin. So far, however, CZTS solar cells are relatively inefficient: they convert less than 13 percent of the

We
know that CZTS solar cells have a potential to be 30 percent efficient . The main
sunlight that falls upon them to electricity, compared to 20 percent for more expensive CIGS solar cells.

challenges are 1) synthesizing high-quality CZTS thin film without any traces of impurities, and 2) finding a suitable
material for the buffer layer underneath it, which helps to collect the electric charges that sunlight creates in the
absorber layer. Our lab has produced a CZTS thin film with seven percent efficiency; we hope to approach 15
percent efficiency soon by synthesizing high-quality CZTS layers and finding suitable buffer layers. Pyrite is another
potential absorber that can be synthesized at very low temperatures. Our lab has synthesized pyrite thin films, and
now we are working to layer those films into solar cells. This process is challenging because pyrite breaks down
easily when it is exposed to heat and moisture. We are researching ways to make it more stable without affecting its
solar absorbency and mechanical properties. If we can solve this problem, fools gold could turn into a smart
photovoltaic device. In a recent study, researchers at Stanford University and the University of California at
Berkeley estimated that solar power could provide up to 45 percent of U.S. electricity by 2050. To meet that target,

we need to keep driving down the cost of solar power and find ways to make solar
cells more sustainably. We believe that abundant, nontoxic materials are key to
realizing the potential of solar power.

Rare earth elements can be harvested in the US and arent key

to making solar panels
Blankenhorn 11 [Dana Blankenhorn, 1-19-2011, "Don't Worry About Rare
Earths," http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ugc/blogs/2011/01/dont-worryabout-rare-earths.html]
Rare Earths aren't that rare at all. They're in 14 states, although currently only
Molycorp of California has approvals needed to open a mine, in the Mojave Desert. Knowing where its potential
market lies, Molycorp now calls Rare Earths Green Elements. Doesn't make them any cleaner
to dig up and process, but it sounds sweet. What we have here is a needless panic , created by a
short-term market anomaly, intended mainly to discourage green investing. And, as
you'll note at the top, wholly unnecessary. Because researchers are already working
hard on making Rare Earths redundant. Matt Law at the University of California in
Irvine has already done research indicating iron pyrite, sometimes called fool's
gold, may be able to replace Rare Earths in many green applications.
In fact, as noted,

New solar technology means that rare earth elements are no

longer necessary in making panels
ACS 12 [American Chemical Society, August 21, 2012 New solar panels made
with more common metals could be cheaper and more sustainable,
https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/pressroom/newsreleases/2012/august/new-solarpanels-made-with-more-common-metals-could-be-cheaper-and-moresustainable.html]
The new photovoltaic technology uses abundant, less-expensive materials like
copper and zinc earth-abundant materials instead of indium, gallium and
other so-called rare earth elements. These substances not only are scarce, but are supplied largely by
foreign countries, with China mining more than 90 percent of the rare earths needed for batteries in hybrid cars, magnets,

Atwater and James C. Stevens, Ph.D., described

successful efforts to replace rare earth and other costly metals in photovoltaic
devices with materials that are less-expensive and more sustainable .
electronics and other high-tech products.

Technological advances are already replacing rare earth metals

Wogon 15 [Tim Wogan, October 14, 2015, freelance chemistry and physics writer with a masters
in science communication, Displacing precious metals in solar cells
http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/2015/10/iron-complex-displace-precious-metal-dye-sensitised-solarcell]

A new iron-based complex to sensitise large-bandgap semiconductors in dyesensitised solar cells has been produced by researchers in Sweden. The researchers
have not produced efficient solar cells yet, but the team believes it could potentially
replace precious metals currently used, dramatically increasing the cells' scalability
and reducing their cost.1In a dye-sensitised solar cell, a semiconductor, such as
titanium dioxide, with a large bandgap is made photo-active by adding a metalcentred molecular dye complex. When the dye absorbs a photon, an electron moves
off the metal onto the ligands, and from there can be injected into the conduction
band of the semiconductor. Polypyridine complexes of precious metals, principally
ruthenium, have historically been among the most successful sensitisers, but they
are among the rarest metals on earth. Directly above ruthenium in the periodic
table lies iron one of the most abundant elements on the planet and an attractive
replacement. However, there is a problem: a metal-centred excited state which, in
ruthenium, has a higher energy than the metal-to-ligand charge transfer (MLCT)
state, has a lower energy in iron, which reduces the lifetime of the MLCT state from
microseconds to femtoseconds and lowers the proportion of electrons transferred to
the metal from 100% to less than 10%. Organic chemist Kenneth Wrnmark of Lund
University in Sweden and colleagues attached N-heterocyclic carbene ligands to
iron, destabilising the metal-centred excited states and thereby suppressing the
deactivation of the MLCT state. Using various spectroscopy techniques, they
showed that the intrinsic lifetimes of the MLCT state in their dye molecule,
immobilised on the surface of titanium dioxide, increased to 37 picoseconds,
allowing 92% of the electrons to be injected into the conduction band of the
titanium dioxide. The researchers now face another problem: preventing the
electrons that have been successfully injected into the conduction band from
recombining with the iron(III) cation left at the centre of the dye molecule. 'We have

injection from the same excited state as with the best ruthenium sensitisers,' says
Wrnmark. 'That opens up the possibility of using the same tricks that have been
used for ruthenium sensitisers to handle this fast recombination.' Physical inorganic
chemist James McCusker of Michigan State University, US, is impressed. 'This paper
has broken through a wall,' he says. 'A paper in 1998 presented the first example of
an iron-based dye-sensitised solar cell2; our paper in 2000 showed why that
probably wasn't working.3 These guys have taken a really, really nice, very
synthetic approach to redesign a molecule, which is one way in which you can
circumvent that problem.'

Alternate Extraction
Alternate methods solve rare earths
MGS 5/19 [Manhattan Gold and Silver, May 19, 2016, Scientists Find a Better Way to Harvest
Rare Earth Elements http://www.mgsrefining.com/blog/post/2016/05/19/Scientists-Find-a-Better-Wayto-Harvest-Rare-Earth-Elements.aspx]

Rare earth elements are actually quite abundant in the earths crust. They are
called rare because of how difficult they are to separate from ore in large amounts.
Because rare earth elements are critical components of smartphones, solar panels,
computer chips, and many other types of technology, demand for them has been
steadily increasing in turn, putting pressure on mining companies to find a way to
make them less rare. Recently, scientists from Pennsylvania State University
made some progress on this front by finding a way to extract rare earth elements
from coal mining refuse. The method the scientists developed uses a lixiviant
making it quite similar to processes used in precious metals mining and refining. A
lixiviant is a liquid medium used to selectively extract certain metals from ore or
mineral. Using nitric acid to leach base metals out precious metals, or using sodium
cyanide to extract gold out of ore are examples of lixiviants at work. Using poorquality, refuse-grade coal, Penn State researchers found that ammonium sulfate
was able to leach about 0.5% of the rare earth elements contained in the coal.
Perhaps not a groundbreaking amount, but its a promising starting point for
increasing the production of rare earth elements in an efficient and
environmentally-friendly manner.

No Impact
No China Japan war-Its not in their interest
Beauchamp 14 (Zack Beauchamp, Editor of TP Ideas and a reporter for
ThinkProgress.org. He previously contributed to Andrew Sullivans The
Dish at Newsweek/Daily Beast, and has also written for Foreign Policy and
Tablet magazines, Why Everyone Needs To Stop Freaking Out About War
With China,
War between China and Japan is more than unlikely: it
would fly in the face of most of what we know about the two countries,
and international relations more broadly. Its not that a replay of 1914 is impossible. Its just deeply,
vanishingly unlikely. One of the easiest ways to evaluate the risks of Sino-Japanese war is by
reference to three of the most important factors that shape a governments decision
to go to war: the balance of power, economic incentives, and ideology. These categories roughly
This is all dramatically overblown.

correspond to the three dominant theories in modern international relations (realism, liberalism, and constructivism), and theres solid statistical evidence
that each of them can play a significant role in how governments think about their decisions to use military force. So lets take them in turn. The main
source of tension is an East China Sea island chain, called the Senkakus in Japan and Diaoyus in China. While there are other potential flashpoints, the
current heightened tensions are centered on the Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute. Japan currently controls the islands, but China claims them, and the Chinese
military has made increasingly aggressive noises about the islands of late. But theres one big factor shaping the balance of power in East Asia that means
the talk is likely to remain just that: nuclear weapons. The tagline for World War I in 1914 The War To End All Wars would have a decidedly different

So whereas, in 1914, all of the European

powers thought they could win the war decisively, East Asias great powers
recognize the risk of a nuclear exchange between the United States and China to be
catastrophic. Carleton Universitys Stephen Saideman calls this the end of the preemption temptation; nobody thinks they can win by striking
first anymore. Indeed, despite the words of some of its military leaders, China (at least nominally) has a no-clashwith-Japan policy in place over the islands. That also helps explain why the most
commonly-cited Senkaku/Diaoyu spark, accidental escalation, isnt as likely as many
suggest. When The Wall Street Journals Andrew Browne writes that theres a real risk of an accident leading to a standoff from which leaders in
meaning in 2014, as wars end would be accomplished by the worlds end.

both countries would find it hard to back down in the face of popular nationalist pressure, hes not wrong. But it wont happen just because two planes
happen across each other in the sky. In 2013, with tensions running high the whole year, Japan scrambled fighters against Chinese aircraft 433 times.

Indeed, tensions have flared up a number of times throughout the years (often
sparked by nationalist activists on side of the other) without managing to bleed over
into war. Thats because, as MIT East Asia expert M. Taylor Fravel argues, there are deep strategic reasons why each side is, broadly speaking, OK
with the status quo over and above nuclear deterrence. China has an interest in not seeming like an
aggressor state in the region, as thats historically caused other regional powers to
put away their differences and line up against it. Japan currently has control over
the islands, which would make any strong moves by China seem like an attempt to
overthrow the status quo power balance. The United States also has a habit of constructive involvement, subtly
reminding both sides when tensions are spiking that the United States and its rather powerful navy would prefer that there be no fighting between
the two states. Moreover, the whole idea of accidental war is also a little bit confusing . Militaries dont just start shooting each other by mistake and
then decide its time to have a war. Rather, an incident thats truly accidental say, a Japanese plane firing on a Chinese aircraft in one of the places
where their Air Defense Identification Zones (ADIZs) overlap changes the incentives to go to war, as the governments start to think (perhaps wrongly)
that war is inevitable and the only way to win it is to escalate. Its hard to envision this kind of shift in calculation in East Asia, for all of the aforementioned
reasons.