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DATO

MAX

LOGX

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

1970

45.000

1.653

1971

72.000

1.857

1972

50.000

1.699

1973

48.000

1.681

1974

100.000

2.000

1975

53.000

1.724

1976

36.000

1.556

1977

65.000

1.813

1978

31.000

1.491

1979

100.000

2.000

1980

67.000

1.826

1981

33.000

1.519

1982

83.000

1.919

1983

58.000

1.763

1984

60.000

1.778

1985

87.000

1.940

1986

55.000

1.740

1987

85.000

1.929

19

1988

82.000

1.914

20
21
22
23
24
25

1989

52.000

1.716

1990

97.000

1.987

1991

55.000

1.740

1992

46.000

1.663

1993

33.000

1.519

1994

59.000

1.771

MEDIA

62.08

DESV. EST.

21.17

C. ASIM.

0.40

0.4

2.615

MEDIA LOG

1.76

0.33

2.581

DE. EST. LOG

0.15

0.2

2.472

C. ASIM. LOG

0.33

RANGO

69.00

MINIMO

31.00

MAXIMO

100.00

SUMA

1552.00

25.00

PERIODO DE RETORNO

INTERPOLACION

100 aos

nivel de probabilidad %

K
QTr

2.581

50489.2158

m3/s

AO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

X
45.000
72.000
50.000
48.000
100.000
53.000
36.000
65.000
31.000
100.000
67.000
33.000
83.000
58.000
60.000
87.000
55.000
85.000
82.000
52.000
97.000
55.000
46.000
33.000
59.000

P(X)
0.03846154
0.07692308
0.11538462
0.15384615
0.19230769
0.23076923
0.26923077
0.30769231
0.34615385
0.38461538
0.42307692
0.46153846
0.5
0.53846154
0.57692308
0.61538462
0.65384615
0.69230769
0.73076923
0.76923077
0.80769231
0.84615385
0.88461538
0.92307692
0.96153846

F(z)ordinarioT(PERIODO)
0.20986634
26.00
0.68033503
13.00
0.28410913
8.67
0.2529739
6.50
0.9633853
5.20
0.33397872
4.33
0.10896357
3.71
0.55485815
3.25
0.07101594
2.89
0.9633853
2.60
0.5918973
2.36
0.08475448
2.17
0.8384953
2.00
0.42357919
1.86
0.46086198
1.73
0.88045385
1.63
0.36901248
1.53
0.86054597
1.44
0.82666064
1.37
0.31696791
1.30
0.95049516
1.24
0.36901248
1.18
0.22373383
1.13
0.08475448
1.08
0.44215653
1.04

Media
Mediana
Desviacin estndar
Varianza de la muestra
Curtosis
Coeficiente de asimetra
Rango
Mnimo
Mximo
Suma
N

PROBABILIDAD_01:
1.- Para P(Q180m3/s)
F(x)=P(X180)
P(x180)=P(x180)
2.- Para P(Q100m3/s)
F(x)=P(X100)
P(x100)=P(x100)

62.080
58.000
21.168
448.077
-0.828
0.402
69.000
31.000
100.000
1552.000
25.000

PROBABILIDAD_02
P(x180)=1-P(x180)
0.73772315

3.- Para P(Q=210m3/s)

73.7723153

F(x)=P(Q=210)

26.2276847

0.90728489

PERIODO T:
0.11545883

T PERIODO

11.5458828

4.- CALCULO DE Q PARA T (aos):


F(x)
(TABLA) Z
Q (CAUDAL)

10.7857283

0.98
2.0545
241.849304

P(X)

80.00

0.03

121.00

2.00

122.00

3.00

133.00

4.00

134.00

5.00

186.00

6.00

186.00

7.00

224.00

8.00

273.00

9.00

10

287.00

10.00

11

294.00

11.00

12

315.00

12.00

13

350.00

13.00

14

551.00

14.00

15

597.00

15.00

16

606.00

16.00

17

616.00

17.00

18

616.00

18.00

19

734.00

19.00

20

756.00

20.00

21

883.00

21.00

22

1045.00

22.00

23

1643.00

23.00

24

1706.00

24.00

25

1875.00

25.00

26

1967.00

26.00

27

2409.00

27.00

28

2876.00

28.00

29

3384.00

29.00

30

3687.00

30.00

F(z)ordinario

(-X+)

e^(-X+)

0.65

31.00

-1

0.64

0.50

-1

0.64

0.33

-1

0.63

0.25

-1

0.63

0.20

-1

0.62

0.17

-1

0.62

0.14

-1

0.60

0.13

-1

0.58

0.11

-1

0.58

0.10

-1

0.57

0.09

-1

0.57

0.08

-1

0.55

0.08

-1

0.47

0.07

0.45

0.07

0.44

0.06

0.44

0.06

0.44

0.06

0.39

0.05

0.38

0.05

0.32

0.05

0.25

0.05

0.06

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.02

0.04

0.01

0.04

0.00

0.04

0.00

0.04

13

0.00

0.03

24

0.00

0.03

35

RESULTADOS ESTADSTICOS:
Media

1248.63636

Mediana

745.00000

Desviacin S

1047.62459

(n=30)

0.00122

(muestra grande

0.00106

(n=30)

777.20530

(muestra grande)

1248.63585

Suma

28656.00000

Cuenta

30.00000

CALCULO DE Q PARA T (aos):

F(x)

1.02040816

T/(T-1)

LN(0.98)

0.02020271

LN(T/(T-1))

1/

816.861282

Q (CAUDAL)

3964.54791

50

AO

Q (m3/S)

1975

859.8

1976

788.3

1977

846.6

1978

784.1

1979

800.03

1980

837.7

1981

778.8

1982

758.8

1983

852.7

10

1984

830.6

11

1985

759.5

12

1986

867.4

13

1987

829.7

14

1988

838.8

15

1989

727.3

16

1990

862.83

17

1991

890.5

18

1992

765.6

19

1993

957.5

20

1994

855

21

1995

890.4

ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS METODO DE MOMENTOS

MEDIA(X)
DESVIACION
TIPICA

827.7123809524
54.9873

VARIANZA(S2)

3023.6041

42.8734377

827.7002942

DATO
CAUDAL

70 m3/S

PERIODO

10

54.9873088

PROBABILIDAD

5%

RESULTADOS
Q

CAUDAL

928.48

PERIODO

1.0

PROBABILIDAD DE NO EXEDENCIA
PROBABILIDAD DE EXEDENCIA

0.00

90.91

100.00

9.09

DATO
CAUDAL

70 m3/S

PERIODO

100

PROBABILIDAD

5%

RESULTADOS
Q
CAUDAL
PERIODO

PROBABILIDAD DE NO EXEDENCIA
PROBABILIDAD DE EXEDENCIA

T
1025.35

1.0
0.00

99.01

100.00

0.99

Q ordenado

P(x) Posicin de ploteo

727.30

0.045455

4.55%

758.80

0.090909

9.09%

759.50

0.136364

13.64%

765.60

0.181818

18.18%

778.80

0.227273

22.73%

784.10

0.272727

27.27%

788.30

0.318182

31.82%

800.03

0.363636

36.36%

829.70

0.409091

40.91%

830.60

0.454545

45.45%

837.70

0.500000

50.00%

838.80

0.545455

54.55%

846.60

0.590909

59.09%

852.70

0.636364

63.64%

855.00

0.681818

68.18%

859.80

0.727273

72.73%

862.83

0.772727

77.27%

867.40

0.818182

81.82%

890.40

0.863636

86.36%

890.50

0.909091

90.91%

957.50

0.954545

95.45%

N DATOS

UY

OX

15

0.5128

1.0206

20

0.5236

1.0628

Papel de Probabilida

INTERPOLANDO PARA 18
18

0.5182

1.0417

P
780.66
0.053

P
781
0.053

de Probabilidad de la Ley Gumbel

AO

Q (m3/S)

1975

443.1

1976

816.7

1977

449.6

1978

478.7

1979

553.8

1980

411.6

1981

450

1982

261.5

1983

862.4

10

1984

780.8

11

1985

468.7

12

1986

737.4

13

1987

771.1

14

1988

1150.8

15

1989

1094.8

16

1990

1036.5

17

1991

969.9

18

1992

888.6

19

1993

829.4

20

1994

885.1

21

1995

613.7

ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS METODO DE MOMENTOS

MEDIA(X)
DESVIACION
TIPICA

712.1047619048
252.9418

VARIANZA(S2)

63979.5295

197.2179

712.1021

252.9417512

DATO
CAUDAL

70 m3/S

PERIODO

10

PROBABILIDAD

5%

RESULTADOS
Q

CAUDAL
PERIODO

1175.69
5.42304020192E-012

1.0

PROBABILIDAD DE NO EXEDENCIA
PROBABILIDAD DE EXEDENCIA

0.00

90.91

100.00

9.09

DATO
CAUDAL

70 m3/S

PERIODO

100

PROBABILIDAD

5%

RESULTADOS
Q

CAUDAL
PERIODO

1621.31
5.42304020192E-012

PROBABILIDAD DE NO EXEDENCIA
PROBABILIDAD DE EXEDENCIA

1.0
0.00

99.01

100.00

0.99

Q ordenado

P(x) Posicin de ploteo

261.50

0.045455

411.60

0.090909

9.09%

443.10

0.136364

13.64%

449.60

0.181818

18.18%

450.00

0.227273

22.73%

468.70

0.272727

27.27%

478.70

0.318182

31.82%

553.80

0.363636

36.36%

613.70

0.409091

40.91%

737.40

0.454545

45.45%

771.10

0.500000

50.00%

780.80

0.545455

54.55%

816.70

0.590909

59.09%

829.40

0.636364

63.64%

862.40

0.681818

68.18%

885.10

0.727273

72.73%

888.60

0.772727

77.27%

969.90

0.818182

81.82%

1036.50

0.863636

86.36%

1094.80

0.909091

90.91%

1150.80

0.954545

95.45%

N DATOS

UY

OX

15

0.5128

1.0206

20

0.5236

1.0628

4.55%

Papel de Probabilida

INTERPOLANDO PARA 18
18

0.5182

1.0417

P
495.72
0.053

P
495.72
0.053

el de Probabilidad de la Ley Gumbel