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This course software was prepared solely as the basis for class discussion. Cases are not intended to serve as
endorsements, sources of primary data, or illustrations of effective or ineffective management. Copyright
2004 President and Fellows of Harvard College. No part of this product may be reproduced, stored in a
retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet or transmitted in any form or by any meanselectronic, mechanical,
photocopying, recording or otherwisewithout the permission of Harvard Business School.
Categories of Risk
Operational / Technical
Counterparty Credit / Performance
Regulatory
Construction
Commodity
Currency
Contractual Enforcement / Legal
Sum of individual scores = business specific risk score
Source: Company document (actual assessments disguised).
Weight
3.50%
7.00%
10.50%
14.50%
18.00%
21.50%
25.00%
Grade for
Lal Pir
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
Risk Scores
(grade x weight)
0.035
0.070
0.210
0.000
0.180
0.430
0.500
1.425
2002
$
2001
2000
4,317 $
4,315
8,632
3,255 $
4,390
7,645
2,661
3,545
6,206
-3,627
-3,086
-6,713
-112
-2,031
312
219
-87
-2,416
-3,052
-5,468
-120
-131
-1,575
189
116
-65
-2,093
-2,210
-4,303
-82
-79
-1,262
201
51
-52
-1,600
-612
-456
-203
-2,651
-27
-34
-2,590
18
-30
176
755
206
103
446
143
-4
475
1,294
368
120
806
-573
-3,163
-173
273
-11
795
-346
($3,509)
$273
$795
($4.81)
($1.05)
($0.65)
($6.51)
$0.84
($0.32)
$$0.52
$1.67
($0.01)
$$1.66
Long-Term Debt
Total Long-Term Debt
Deferred Taxes
Other Long-Term Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Common Stock
Additional Paid in Capital
Retained Earnings
Treasury Stock
Other Equity
Total Shareholders' Equity
Total Liabilities + Shareholders' Equity
Shares Outstanding
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
780
211
1264
384
218
1492
4349
802
215
1137
468
215
1855
4692
950
1297
1566
569
1193
209
5784
669
164
936
307
327
184
2587
491
35
383
119
155
71
1254
194
23050
-4204
18846
1403
8984
33776
3031
21127
-3015
18112
2433
8544
36812
3122
21874
-2632
19242
2248
2642
33038
1575
14210
-763
13447
1904
1367
20880
1933
6029
-525
5504
1490
600
10781
1139
727
743
381
215
3341
2031
6511
2449
1752
4928
17684
17684
981
8941
34117
17406
17406
627
8312
31273
6
5312
-700
5
5225
2809
-4959
-341
33776
558
-2500
5539
36812
533
2462
1834
5039
17382
17382
1863
3212
27496
5
5172
2551
-507 -1679
5542
33038
509
1216
973
2570
1413
348
1976
12136
12136
1787
1750
18243
5791
5791
268
952
8987
4
2615
1120
2
1243
892
-1102
2637
20880
414
-343
1794
10781
361
Source: AES Annual Balance Sheet, December 2003, available from OneSource Information Services, <http://www.onesource.com>
Business / Project
Country
Line of
Business
Andres
Dominican
Republic
CG
Caracoles
Argentina
CS
Drax
Eletropaulo
Gener
United
Kingdom
Brazil
Chile
CS
LU
CG
Haripur
Kelvin
Lal Pir
CG
CG
CG
Los Mina
Bangladesh
South Africa
Pakistan
Dominican
Republic
OPGC
India
CG
Ottana
Red Oak
Rivnoblenergo
Telasi
Uruguaiana
Italy
USA
Ukraine
Georgia
Brazil
CS
CG
GD
GD
CG
CG
Project Description
Tax Rate
Debt to
Cap.
300 MW gas fired combined cycle plant currently under construction 30 km east of
Santo Domingo
25.0%
35.1%
123 MW hydroelectric power plant located on the San Juan river in western Argentina
35.0%
40.8%
0.0%
34.0%
17.0%
29.5%
30.0%
35.2%
0.0%
25.0%
23.0%
33.3%
32.9%
35.1%
25.0%
28.7%
7.9%
30.4%
35.0%
37.5%
30.0%
20.0%
34.0%
42.5%
39.5%
36.5%
26.1%
32.2%
Largest coal-fired power station in western Europe. It can produce enough electricity about 4000 MW- to meet the needs of approximately four million people
Distribution company that serves a population of 14 million in Sao Paulo
277 MW fossil fuel plant located in Tocopilla, 1500 km north of Santiago
360 MW gas turbine facility located 25 kilometers southeast of Dhaka, capital of
Bangladesh
600 MW coal fired power plant
337 MW coal fired power plant
210 MW Oil-fired facility supplying the capital city of Santo Domingo
Joint Venture with the Government of Orissa. Two 210 MW P.C. coal-fired units
Oil fired 140 MW cogeneration facility - under contracts of up to 10 years, electricity,
steam, compressed air, dematerialized water and nitrogen to three chemical facilities
adjacent to the plant
832 MW natural gas-fired plant
Distribution Company serving 380,000 customers
Distribution Company serving Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia.
600 MW gas-fired combined cycle power plant
n from http://www.aes.com/businesses/default.asp.
Commodity
Contract enf./Legal
Counterparty
Currency
Sovereign
Spread
Regulatory
Default
Spread
Operational/
Technical
EBIT
Coverage
Construction
Risk Scores
3.0x
3.57%
8.93%
3.0x
3.57%
16.25%
3.0x
3.5x
2.5x
3.57%
2.89%
4.34%
0.00%
8.93%
1.73%
2
1
-
2
3
1
3
1
2
1
1
2
3
-
3
2
2
2.5x
2.5x
3.0x
4.34%
4.34%
3.57%
5.23%
3.14%
9.90%
2
1
-
1
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
4.0x
1.85%
8.93%
3.0x
3.57%
3.60%
2.5x
3.0x
2.5x
4.0x
4.0x
4.34%
3.57%
3.57%
1.85%
1.85%
0.14%
0.00%
9.98%
9.98%
8.93%
2
2
-
1
3
3
1
2
3
3
3
3
1
3
2
3
3
2
3
2
4.50%
7.00%
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
EBIT
Coverage
Ratio
21.1x
15.1x
10.9x
8.1x
6.3x
5.2x
4.6x
4.2x
3.9x
3.6x
3.2x
2.6x
1.9x
1.0x
0.8x
0.6x
0.4x
0.1x
0.1x
Default
Spread
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.60%
0.70%
0.90%
1.20%
1.50%
1.90%
2.30%
2.90%
3.60%
4.30%
5.20%
6.20%
7.40%
8.60%
10.00%
11.40%
2004
312.5
100.0
(30.6)
69.4
(44.1)
(8.8)
16.4
2005
313.6
100.4
(31.3)
69.1
(42.7)
(9.2)
17.2
2006
314.7
100.7
(31.9)
68.8
(41.1)
(9.7)
18.0
2007
315.8
101.1
(32.5)
68.5
(39.4)
(10.2)
19.0
2008
316.9
101.4
(33.1)
68.3
(37.5)
(10.8)
20.0
2009
318.0
101.8
(33.8)
68.0
(35.4)
(11.4)
21.2
Cash Flow
Operating Profit
Addback Depreciation
Maintenance CapEx
Pre-Tax, Pre-Finance Cash Flow
Interest
Principal
New Debt
Taxes
Levered Equity Cash Flow
Lev Equity Cash Flow with TV
Unlevered Cash Flow
Unlevered Cash Flow with TV
69.4
30.6
(12.5)
87.5
(44.1)
(14.2)
0.0
(8.8)
20.3
20.3
63.2
63.2
69.1
31.3
(12.5)
87.8
(42.7)
(15.5)
0.0
(9.2)
20.4
20.4
63.6
63.6
68.8
31.9
(12.6)
88.1
(41.1)
(16.9)
0.0
(9.7)
20.4
20.4
64.0
64.0
68.5
32.5
(12.6)
88.4
(39.4)
(18.4)
0.0
(10.2)
20.4
20.4
64.4
64.4
68.3
33.1
(12.7)
88.7
(37.5)
(20.1)
0.0
(10.8)
20.3
20.3
64.8
64.8
68.0
33.8
(12.7)
89.0
(35.4)
(22.0)
0.0
(11.4)
20.2
20.2
65.2
65.2
Capitalization
Initial PP&E
Goodwill
Accum Depreciation
Total Assets
Debt
Equity
Total Capital
612.5
22.4
(30.6)
604.3
416.5
187.8
604.3
625.0
22.4
(61.9)
585.6
401.0
184.6
585.6
637.6
22.4
(93.8)
566.3
384.1
182.1
566.3
650.3
22.4
(126.3)
546.4
365.7
180.7
546.4
662.9
22.4
(159.4)
525.9
345.6
180.3
525.9
675.7
22.4
(193.2)
504.9
323.6
181.3
504.9
2010
319.1
102.1
(34.4)
67.7
(33.2)
(12.1)
22.4
2011
320.2
102.5
(35.1)
67.4
(30.7)
(12.9)
23.9
2012
321.4
102.8
(35.7)
67.1
(28.0)
(13.7)
25.4
2013
322.5
103.2
(36.3)
66.8
(25.0)
(14.6)
27.2
2014
323.6
103.6
(37.0)
66.6
(21.8)
(15.7)
29.1
2015
324.7
103.9
(37.6)
66.3
(18.2)
(16.8)
31.3
2016
325.9
104.3
(38.3)
66.0
(14.3)
(18.1)
33.6
2017
327.0
104.6
(39.0)
65.7
(9.9)
(19.5)
36.2
2018
328.2
105.0
(39.6)
65.4
(5.2)
(21.1)
39.1
2019
329.3
105.4
(40.3)
65.1
0.0
(22.8)
42.3
67.7
34.4
(12.8)
89.4
(33.2)
(24.1)
0.0
(12.1)
20.0
20.0
65.7
65.7
67.4
35.1
(12.8)
89.7
(30.7)
(26.4)
0.0
(12.9)
19.7
19.7
66.1
66.1
67.1
35.7
(12.9)
90.0
(28.0)
(29.0)
0.0
(13.7)
19.3
19.3
66.5
66.5
66.8
36.3
(12.9)
90.3
(25.0)
(31.8)
0.0
(14.6)
18.9
18.9
66.9
66.9
66.6
37.0
(12.9)
90.6
(21.8)
(34.9)
0.0
(15.7)
18.3
18.3
67.3
67.3
66.3
37.6
(13.0)
90.9
(18.2)
(38.3)
0.0
(16.8)
17.6
17.6
67.7
67.7
66.0
38.3
(13.0)
91.2
(14.3)
(42.1)
0.0
(18.1)
16.8
16.8
68.2
68.2
65.7
39.0
(13.1)
91.6
(9.9)
(46.2)
0.0
(19.5)
15.9
15.9
68.6
68.6
65.4
39.6
(13.1)
91.9
(5.2)
(50.8)
0.0
(21.1)
14.8
14.8
69.0
69.0
65.1
40.3
(13.2)
92.2
0.0
(0.0)
0.0
(22.8)
69.4
69.4
69.4
69.4
688.4
22.4
(227.6)
483.2
299.4
183.8
483.2
701.2
22.4
(262.7)
461.0
273.0
187.9
461.0
714.1
22.4
(298.4)
438.1
244.1
194.1
438.1
727.0
22.4
(334.7)
414.7
212.3
202.4
414.7
739.9
22.4
(371.7)
390.6
177.4
213.2
390.6
752.9
22.4
(409.4)
365.9
139.1
226.8
365.9
766.0
22.4
(447.7)
340.7
97.0
243.6
340.7
779.0
22.4
(486.6)
314.8
50.8
264.0
314.8
792.2
22.4
(526.2)
288.3
(0.0)
288.3
288.3
805.3
22.4
(566.5)
261.2
(0.0)
261.2
261.2
2020
330.5
105.7
(40.9)
64.8
0.0
(22.7)
42.1
2021
331.6
106.1
(41.6)
64.5
0.0
(22.6)
41.9
2022
332.8
106.5
(42.3)
64.2
0.0
(22.5)
41.8
2023
333.9
106.9
(42.9)
63.9
0.0
(22.4)
41.6
64.8
40.9
(13.2)
92.5
0.0
(0.0)
0.0
(22.7)
69.8
69.8
69.8
69.8
64.5
41.6
(13.3)
92.9
0.0
(0.0)
0.0
(22.6)
70.3
70.3
70.3
70.3
64.2
42.3
(13.3)
93.2
0.0
(0.0)
0.0
(22.5)
70.7
70.7
70.7
70.7
63.9
42.9
(13.4)
93.5
0.0
(0.0)
0.0
(22.4)
71.1
71.1
71.1
71.1
818.6
22.4
(607.4)
233.5
(0.0)
233.5
233.5
831.8
22.4
(649.0)
205.2
(0.0)
205.2
205.2
845.1
22.4
(691.3)
176.3
(0.0)
176.3
176.3
858.5
22.4
(734.2)
146.7
(0.0)
146.7
146.7