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People are often in a position to offer rationale for holding their beliefs/performing actions
o We must be right/ many of our beliefs are truisms
o Many times it will be important to find out whether one/both of the competing claims is a genuine
mistake
An argument is a set of statements presented as true and has important internal relations: some of the
statements are premises intended to provide evidence for the conclusion.
IS VALID
You may change your own mind in various ways by going through the process of mounting an argument
o Process of making reasoning public is also about evaluating ones own reasoning by putting it in its
clearest/most specific form.
A good argument is the presentation of a collection of premises that jointly are rationally
persuasive of a conclusion.
o 2. Arguments are linguistic/logical objects
A set of sentences
A good argument can be defined in terms of the truth of the premises in logical relation to
a conclusion
when giving an argument it is not enough to produce premises that happen to be true
Intuitionistic logic: well developed formal system that does not include law of extended middle
Dialethic logic: keeps law of extended middle but restricts law of non-contradiction
It seems strange to suppose that any set of randomly chosen sentences counts as at least a bad
argument/fallacious argument
Explanation is a form of reasoning that is broadly distinct from argument while often overlapping with it
o Sometimes casual describing prior conditions that caused some event
o Aims to rationalize/order reason/definitions/sort priorities according to principles of reasoning
Method for discovering if an argument is invalid: method of counter example. Thinking of scenarios that are
consistent with 1&2 but not 3
Constructive dilemma
1. P or Q
2. If P then R
3. If Q then S
Therefore,
4. R or S
A compound and complex sentence can end up embodying many distinct factual claims each of which must
be evaluated if the statement is offered as a premise or conclusion.
CHAPTER 2
Deductive argument is a gold standard of reasoning. Deductive validity amounts to a guarantee of a true
conclusion given true premises. All info in the conclusion is presented in the premises.
Argument is cogent just in case it makes its conclusion rationally credible/rationally believable
Deductively sound arguments are fully cogent by these definitions: with true premises/ valid structure it
demonstrates the truth of its conclusion.
Logical fallacies: arguments presented as valid but which have invalid forms. Ex. Enthymemes.
Amplative arguments: some ampliative conclusions can be regarded as extremely likely in light of their
premises.
o Invalid ampliative argument: if the conclusion expresses some info not included in the premises
then it is a way for the premises to be true and the conclusion false.
For a deductive argument the existence of the possibility alone is enough to scuttle the arguments validity. In
ampliative arguments we are concerned not just with the possibility that the conclusion is false but with the
probability its false.
Most important form of ampliative reasoning: INDUCTIVE ARGUMENT (draws conclusion about
unobserved cases from the premises of an observed case)
Success of evidential arguments varies by degree rather than be an all or nothing affair
Enumerative argument: argument based on counting off specific observed cases then drawing an inference
abut one/more unobserved cases
Inductive base: the larger the inductive base the stringer the argument for the conclusion
A. DEDUCTIVE ARGUMENTS
o Satisfy/aim to satisfy definition of validity
o Do not strictly become more valid/more sound by degree
o If sound, remains sound no matter what other premises may be added.
B. INDUCTIVE REASONING
o Strictly deductively invalid being ampliative.
o Lends only a degree of support to their conclusion
o Are sensitive to subsequent info that may be added
Arguing from indirect evidence reasoning based on implicit inductive evidence to the effect that people
Common interpretation of deductive + evidential arguments: valid argument form provides the general
outlines of argument while evidential reasoning is invoked to defend the premises
Examining familiar/uncontroversial case noting a feature + arguing that some other case
is relevantly similar.
MILLS METHODS: identifying causes in complex circumstances. Useful in distinguishing between intuitive
cases and correlations
o Method of agreement
Only one factor in common between two situations in which another effect is observes;
reasonable to believe F causes E
o Method of difference:
E is observed in S1 but not S2 and the only relevant difference is that S1 has F, then it is
reasonable to conclude F causes E
o Joint method of agreement/disagreement:
CHAPTER 3
What is asserted often goes well beyond the content of the sentences uttered?
o A reasonable audience will consider not just what was said but also the point of saying it.
o Good critical reasoning requires some reflection on the range of linguistic/extra-linguistic devices
implicated in the commission of reasoning errors
Performative purposes= resulting in accomplishment of some act rather than just describing it.
Commanding/questioning/asserting
o Different kinds of speech acts
o Preforming these linguistic acts is a matter of employing the appropriate kind of sentence
Rhetorical questions:
o Often in arguments to function as premises
o Often best to think of it as an assertion
o Often framed rhetorically for a reason: effect of putting the premise in the form of a question is to
oblige audience to look for evidence against the claim/shift burden of truth.
One of the aims of critically analyzing arguments/assertions is to detect and diffuse rhetorical flourishes
Words are useful/legitimate especially when the context of use serves to partially refine the intended meaning
When vagueness is understood as imprecision weasel words can raise issues in critical thinking
Calling a predicate/concept vague can be a way of making technical observations of the puzzling logic that
characterizes the statements.
Important aspect of understanding vague language is distinguishing between being unable to say where a
difference lies
Syntactic ambiguity: occurs when sentence structure that can be read in more ways than one
Enthymeme: argument having implicit premises that are particularly significant because they are
implausible/invalid.
We consider more than the truth of premises but kinds of inferences characteristic of moral/ethical discourse.
Many fallacies in moral discourse are not unique to moral discourse: assessment of praise/blame often
subjected to fallacies of false dichotomy
Does the inability to prove moral statements from non moral statements somehow reflect badly on moral
claims?
Using video/pictorial evidence as factor for motivating public/political support for a conclusion
Arguments are communicated directly through explicit content of language and indirectly through
gesture/tone/imagery/rhetorical devices
By paying attention to these devices we can recognize arguments/parts that may not be obvious.
CHAPTER 4
Fallacies: mistakes in arguments that cluster into recognizable patterns. Forms of unreliable/unreasonable
argument
Any structurally invalid argument is a logical fallacy: premise foes not determine truth of conclusion.
Logical diagnosis of failure/inference
o Non sequite (doesnt follow)
o Ignoratio elenchi (irrelevant conclusion
CONDTIONAL FALLACIES
o Denying the antecent/affirming the consequent
Only sometimes an evidential fallacy. The quality of an argument from lack of evidence depends on how
informed we are how hard we have looked for evidence.
Argument from lack of evidence is reasonable when it can be framed in modus tollens argument:
o Relevant expertise
o Recent
o Reason to believe its expert knowledge
o Degree of consistency with broader expert opinion
Fallacy of appeal to popular opinion: everyone believes P therefore P
o Everyone might be wrong.
o Logically invalid
o As an evidential argument this one is stronger than case of single authority/popular opinion.
Begging the question/circle drain: 1.p 2. Q 3. R conclusion: q or p or r
At issue is whether someone who just picks up ammunition should be considered a "terrorist".
Moreover, the appeal to "common sense" is a red flag; it simply does not follow that one should kill
even a known enemy at every opportunity.
Straw man fallacy: Attacking an argument or view that ones opponent does not actually advocate.
Deliberate or not, it is tempting to interpret ones opponent as having a position easier to refute than the
actual position
Ad hominem fallacy: Appealing to some trait of the arguer (usually a negative trait, real or perceived) as grounds to
reject their argument.
Counts as a fallacy when the alleged trait is strictly irrelevant to the arguments cogency.
If the arguer is offering one or more premises from personal authority, for example, it is not a fallacious ad
hominem to point out relevant facts about the arguer: e.g. a known tendency to lie, or demonstrated failures of
authority in the relevant domain.
The credibility of the speaker can be relevant to claims the speaker makes, but not to the validity of
the argument the speaker gives.
Ad hominem is often mistaken for mere insult.
In fact, the fallacy is committed when any mention is made of the arguer, including ostensibly positive
characteristics, but only when such mention is given instead of argument.
Ad hominem is just one species of genetic fallacy: the fallacy of focusing on the origins or source of an
argument or thing rather than the properties of the argument or thing itself.
Al Gore talks about global warming, but he lives in a big house that uses lots of electricity.
Therefore, global warming is a fib.
Saying bless you after someone sneezes originated from the belief that an evil spirit could enter
you after you sneeze. So, when you say that, you are being superstitious.
Ad hominem is often a species of argument by appeal to emotion: inferring an unwarranted conclusion under
the cover of premises that elicit strong emotions (e.g. fear, anger, patriotism, pride, etc.).
Fallacies of relevance: introducing irrelevant factors to the real issue under discussion
Red herring: statements/objects that lead the discussion away from key points
Chapter 5
Careful/appropriate quantification of data can greatly assist our understanding of complex situations
To be unable to understand these claims is to be caught in a dilemma. Either trusts claims we framed in
mathematical terms we cannot evaluate ourselves or to generally reject them because we cannot evaluate
them.
Danger in comparing percentages is hastily overlooking what the percent claims to mean
Non literal uses of percentages to emphasize errors on what is judges to be an easy task
Linear projections: assumption of constant rates. Evidential fallacy that projects a constant rate into distant
features to unclear reasons.
Graphical fallacies.
CHAPTER 6
Representative sampling: a subset of a statistical population that accurately reflects the members of an entire
population
When we draw no n-deductive inferences from sets of data we can only ever be confident in the conclusion to
a degree.
o Significance: measure of confidence we are entitles to have in our probabilistic conclusion/function
of how precise a conclusion we are trying to draw.
o The more precise you want a conclusion to be the more data you need in order to have high
confidence in it
A set of data permits you to be confident to a degree in some statistical conclusion that is precise to a degree
understanding a statistical claim requires knowing both degrees. Using fixed standards of significance is the
most common way of simplifying interpretation of a statistical claim
Standard deviation: the average difference between data points and the mean. Reveals into about the
distribution of data points
o 2 distributions can be normal
Setting a significance level before doing inference has advantage. That analyst isnt tempted to choose a cut
off
Significance level has the disadvantage of neglecting that some P values should be considered borderline.
Important to report p values when reporting results of a hypotheses.
Goal of probability theory: is to know how confident we can reasonably be about the truth of some
proposition given an incomplete state of information. People are not naturally good at recognizing how
various bits of info are relevant to truth of a proposition
Probability theory: analysis of random phenomena. Cannot predict precise results of a random event but if a
sequence of individual events are influenced by other factors it will exhibit certain patterns that can be
studied and predicted.
if s is not well defined than any probabilistic calculations you may perform using s are
perhaps meaningless
this rule makes it possible for basing reason on what will not occur
probability of an event: # of possible outcomes / total of possible outcomes
probability of both events occurring has 2 kinds of cases
o independent a&b (
o dependent a&b (a affected by b occurring)
Perceptual bias: what we expect has an impact on what we believe we are experiencing
o A psychological tendency to lose objectivity in perception of people and situations
o People may believe that they are able to evaluate an event fairly but a number of biases interact
with the way they perceive events
Top down expectation bias: your perceptions are influenced by expectations/existing beliefs/cognitions. Often
occurs without conscious awareness influenced by context/motivation
Self-fulfilling prophecy: a prediction that directly/indirectly causes itself to become true by the very terms of
the prophecy itself due to positive feedback between belief and behavior.
o Process is biased in favor of confirmation rather than falsely believing the prediction was
confirmed owing to a bias
Expectation biasing judgment: case of confirmation bias. If you believe something then you are likely to treat
your neutral evidence as a confirmation of your beliefs.
One of the reasons we are intuitively poor probabilistic reasons appears to be that we sometimes lapse into
reasoning from representative cases.
Framing effects
o Spin: the way a situation is described can have a powerful influence on judgments about it.
Repitions: important factor ranking a statement as true based on how often you have heard it.
Cognitive bias: systematic pattern of deviation from a norm/rationality in judgment where inferences about
other people/situations may be drawn in an illogical fashion. Individuals create their own subjective social
reality from their perception of imput.
Confirmation bias: any tendency of thought/action that contributes to a salient propositions seeming more
warranted than it is. Confirmation of preexisting beliefs.
Social cognition: sub-topics of psychology that focuses on how people process/store/apply information about
other people and social situations. Focuses on the role that cognitive processes play in our social interaction.
o The way we think about others plays a major role in how we think/feel/interact with the world
around us.
The existence of other people in a reasoning context/ the nature of our relationship with them apply to our
judgments and inferences in 2 broad ways
o Reasoning about other people
o Reasoning influenced by them
The number and kind of people around us are an enormous influence on our reasoning/ problem solving/
decision making skills
o A source of much of our info
o Much of our reasoning is about them
o Much of our reasoning about other things is affected by their presence.
Wide range of additional biases reasoning pitfalls associated
o Flow of the info through others can change how we see things unconsciously
o Reasoning about/ in presence of other people tends to be flawed in a predictable set of ways
Reasoning about other people
o Business/family/ recreation are all mediated by our relations with the people around us
o Understanding and predicting their behavior is a primary concern for our own happiness/success
o Judgment largely divided by simple/frequently inaccurate heuristics
o We need to self monitor unreliable forms of reasoning about other people
Key factors in unreliable social reasoning
o Optimistic assessment of ourselves
o Idealized oversimplified theorizing
o Overemphasis on character rather than content
Fundamental attribution error: the tendency for people to place undue emphasis on internal characteristic
(personality) to explain someones behavior in a situation rather than considering the situations external
factors.
o Dont be misled by first impressions.
o Overlooks a range of situational factorys
o Causes inefficient tension between people for no reason
Optimistic self-assessment: when reasoning about oneself we tend to recognize our strong qualities rather
than our flaws.
False polarization effect: overestimating the differences between ones own view and the view of someone
who disagrees by interpreting the other persons view as closer to the polar opposite than it is
o We flatter ourselves that our particular position on a issue is distinguished from other
o Assimilate our opponents reasoning
o Not only does it misrepresent the specific content of others views it also systematically
overestimates separation between opposing views
Fallacy related to false polarization: biased definition + biased interpretation of evidence confirms our
preexisting idea that we are centrist/reasonable even when false. As long as someone disagrees with you can
overinterpret their dissent to represent everyone on the other side
Bandwagon effect: psychological phenomenon whereby people do something primarily because other people
are doing it. When most people in a group are in agreement it is much more difficult to hold a dissenting view
False consensus effect: overestimating the extent to which others share ones perception of a situation.
Taking silence as an agreement
Debiasing strategies
o Make a habit of considering reasons why those who havent committed to your belief might agree
o Create an environment in which voicing dissent is allowed
Flow of info through groups
o Info we receive requires sensitivity to the effects of the transmitting medium of the into.
o Leveling + sharpening: jointly used to shape the message
o Leveling: elements of a narrative/message that are supporting details and get minimized
o Sharpening: point of the message that is perceived as central is emphasized.
o We convey messages by understanding their main point
Coverage: property of a social context regarding some particular claim that makes it reasonable for you to
reject the claim youd already know if it were true
CHAPTER 9
Context of inquiry in which the prospect for momentary individual error is factored out by requirement
of repeatability
Science: a ser of discipline specific methods that bear a broad family resemblance and an appropriate set
of attitudes.
Hallmarks of pseudo-science:
o Imperviousness to countervailing evidence especially a refusal to specify in advance what data
would count as probability lowering
o Folk plausibility (intuitive ideas)
o Spread of crack-pottery
o Frequently requires posting a conspiracy theory
o Critical thinking about science: its practices popular representation and publication
CHAPTER 10
Mainstream media is another form of information that is far less governed by truth-preserving norms
All kinds of media is subject to many powerful norms distinct from those of accuracy/relevance
Personal biases in media @ editorial and ownership levels (choosing content to be released)
Advertisers aims play a powerful role in the thinking of owners and editors
Competence issues: science/politics/ law/history are often complex matters that journalists arent prepared to
summarize
Plurality of media sources/viewpoints seems as likely to enable the selection of homogenous sources as to
encourage broad opinion.