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COD. 201221167062
7 de marzo de 2016
COD. 201221167062
Preliminares
Corolario 3.6
P{SN = 0} = P{N = 0}
k
P{SN = k} =
X
1
E [N]
jj P{SM1 = k j},
k
j=1
COD. 201221167062
k >0
= P{M = n + 1}
(n + 1)P{N = n + 1}
=
E [N]
1
n+1
=
(n + 1)e
(n + 1)!
n
= e
n!
COD. 201221167062
Pk =
X
jj Pkj ,
k
k >0
j=1
COD. 201221167062
P{N = n 1},
n
COD. 201221167062
n1
=
=
=
=
(n + 1)P{N = n + 1}
E [N]
n+1
r
p n+1 (1 p)r n1
rp
n+1
n+1
r!
p n+1 (1 p)r 1n
rp (r 1 n)(n + 1)!
(r 1)!
p n (1 p)r 1n
(r 1 n)!n!
COD. 201221167062
Pr (k) =
rp X
jj Pr 1(k j)
k
k >0
j=1
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Pr (3)
=
=
+
rp
[1 Pr 1 (2) + 22 Pr 1 (1) + 33 Pr 1 (0)]
3
1 rp (r 1)p
[(r 2)p12 (1 p)r 3 + 22 (1 p)r 2 ]
3
2
22 rp
(r 1)p1 (1 p)r 2 + 3 rp(1 p)r 1
3
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1p
)
p
COD. 201221167062
P{M 1 = n}
(n + 1)P{N = n + 1}
E [N]
(n + 1)p n + r r
=
p (1 p)n+1
r (1 p) r 1
(n + r )! r +1
=
p (1 p)n
r
!n!
n + r r +1
=
p (1 p)n
r
=
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Pr (k) =
r (1 p) X
jj Pr +1 (k j),
kp
k >0
j=1
Entonces:
Pr (1)
Pr (2)
=
=
Pr (3) =
r (1 p)
1 Pr +1 (0)
p
= rp r (1 p)1
r (1 p)
[1 Pr +1 (1) + 22 Pr +1 (0)]
2p
r (1 p) 2
[1 (r + 1)P r +1 + 22 Pr +1 ]
2p
r (1 p)
[1 Pr +1 (2) + 22 Pr +1 (1) + 33 Pr +1 (0)]
3p
COD. 201221167062