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washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/09/01/these-charts-clearly-show-how-some-olympic-swimmers-may-have-gotten-an-unfair-a
By Jeff Guo
Denmark's Pernille Blume won the gold medal in the 50-meter freestyle swimming in Lane 4 at the 2016
Summer Olympics. The rest of the women in the final race finished in descending order according to their lane
number. (Dominic Ebenbichler/Reuters)
A few years ago, researchers from Indiana University discovered a disturbing pattern at the 2013 Swimming
World Championships in Barcelona. According to the lap-time data, athletes assigned to the outer lanes of the
pool were consistently swimming faster in one direction than the other.
A mysterious force seemed to be interfering with the competition. But before the researchers could investigate in
person, the pool a temporary facility constructed just for that event was torn down.
The same strange problem cropped up at the Rio Olympics, and nobody can explain why.
Two independent statistical analyses show discrepancies large enough to cast doubt on the results of some
races. The problem may have even cost swimmers medals.
[Why bronze medalists are happier than silver medalists, and other things the Olympics teaches us about human
emotions]
The following chart from Eastern Michigan University professor Andrew Cornett, and Indiana University's
Christopher Brammer and Joel Stager illustrates the lap time discrepancies in the Rio pool using data from the
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longer-distance races. Since competitors in those events make several laps back and forth along the 50-meterlong pool, the researchers could compare swimmers against themselves.
Each dot represents a swimmer in one of the 800-meter and 1500-meter races. The vertical position of the dot
shows whether the athlete swam faster in one direction or the other.
In a perfectly fair pool, all of the dots should be near the zero line.
In Rio, athletes in the middle lanes were relatively unaffected. But on the lower-numbered side of the pool,
competitors were about 0.4 seconds faster swimming away from the starting blocks.
The higher-numbered side of the pool suffered from the opposite problem. Swimmers were about 0.2 seconds
slower in their outgoing laps compared to their return laps. (In all of this, the researchers ignored the first and last
laps because those are strategic parts of the race.)
To understand the pattern of lane bias, consider the example of Norwegian swimmer Henrik Christiansen, who is
marked on the chart in pink. In his preliminary heat for the 1500-meter race, Christiansen was assigned to Lane
2. In that race, his outgoing laps were 0.28 seconds faster than his incoming laps, on average.
When Christiansen made it through to the final, he was assigned to the other side of the pool. In Lane 8,
Christiansen swam a completely different race. His outgoing laps were slower than his incoming laps.
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As Revzin notes, this is a significant difference. In both the mens and the womens 50-meter freestyle, the top
three finishers were separated by less than one-tenth of second. Well never know for sure, but the evidence
raises questions about what would have happened if people had gotten different lane assignments.
For instance, the womens bronze medalist, Belaruss Aliaksandra Herasimenia clocked 24.11 seconds. She
beat out defending gold medalist Ranomi Kromowidjojo of the Netherlands, who clocked a 24.19. But
Herasimenia swam in Lane 8, which the data suggest was the fastest lane. Kromowidjojo swam in Lane 3.
The Indiana University researchers' data led them to a similar finding: The highest-numbered lanes in Rio, they
determined, may have given the 50-meter swimmers a boost of up to 1 percent relative to the middle lanes. The
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waves that impede swimmers in the outside lanes, he explained in a phone call.
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Right now, it's hard to predict when these irregularities will surface. There was no evidence of lane bias, for
instance, in the temporary pool that Myrtha built for the 2015 FINA World Championships, according to Revzin's
analysis.
But Revzin says the apparent lane bias at the Rio facility could have been caught earlier, because it was already
evident in April, at an Olympic test event with Brazilian swimmers.
FINA notes that no one has found physical proof that implicates the Rio pool. The patterns documented by
Revzin and the Indiana University researchers were made on the basis of mathematical analysis, without taking
into account any scientific evidence in the actual pool constructed for these Games, a FINA representative said
in an e-mail.
But it's clear that these patterns in the swim times were not flukes. The data overwhelmingly show that
something unusual happened at the Rio Olympics, just as something unusual happened at the 2013 World
Championships.
Brammer, one of the Indiana University researchers, said that all he wants is for officials to take the problem
seriously.
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It's affecting these athletes' lives, he said in a phone interview. For some of them, this is their livelihood, and
the Olympic Games are it. That's their pinnacle. For them to be cheated that's a huge issue."
commentary about gymnast Simone Biles, heres a look at moments that have roiled the Games.
Caption
From body parts washing up near the beach volleyball venue to insensitive commentary about gymnast Simone
Biles, heres a look at moments that have roiled the Games.
Amidst a string of robberies of attendees, Ryan Lochte and three other swimmers also claimed they were
robbed after a dance party at an Olympic venue. However, discrepancies have emerged in their accounts.
Lochte said they were accosted by one robber, while another swimmer said there were several. Read more here.
Michael Sohn/AP
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