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The African
Traveller
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Fifth edition
PwC 3
Thandeka Maduna
Catherine Ensor
PricewaterhouseCoopers Inc.
2 Eglin Road
Sunninghill, 2157
South Africa
+27 (0)11 797 4000
www.pwc.com/za
Research methodology
Historical data was derived from our analysis of Smith
Travel Research (STR) data and local country data
combined with other information on industry trends. As
some of the historical data was generated through surveys,
year-to-year swings sometimes occur because of entities
of different sizes being sampled rather than because of
underlying industry trends.
Historical data from STR may also differ from one year
to the next, reflecting differences in the make-up of the
participating sample of hotels. We applied a harmonising
model to smooth out these swings in order to better reflect
underlying market trends.
We then developed forecasting models based on the
historical performance for each category, economic
prospects for each country and the rest of the world, and
estimates of domestic and international overnight travel.
We also took into account announced plans for expansion
by hotel operators, as well as competition, pricing trends
and the expected reaction of proprietors to changing
occupancy rates.
Quantitative research and analysis was provided by
Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Inc., a provider of global
research and analysis of the hospitality industry. See
www.wilkofskygruen.com for more information.
Editorial team
Nikki Forster, Hospitality Industry Leader, PwC Southern Africa
Pietro Calicchio, Director, PwC South Africa
Sunet Liebenberg, Senior Manager, PwC South Africa
Basheena Bhoola, Senior Manager, PwC South Africa
Osere Alakhume, Director, PwC Nigeria
Nicolas Vaudin, Director, PwC Mauritius
Michael Mugasa, Partner, PwC Kenya
Permission to cite
No part of this publication may be excerpted,
reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or distributed
or transmitted in any form or by any means, including
electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or
scanning without the prior written permission of
PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Requests should be submitted in writing to Nikki
Forster at nikki.forster@za.pwc.com outlining the
excerpts you wish to use along with a draft copy of the
full report that excerpts will appear in. Provision of this
information is necessary for every citation request to
enable PricewaterhouseCoopers to assess the context
in which the excerpts are being presented.
Johannesburg
14 May 2015
To our clients and friends both in and beyond the hospitality industry:
Welcome to Hospitality outlook: 2015-2019, the 5th edition in this series. This publication
focuses on segments within the hospitality industry with detailed forecasts and analysis. It
discusses the key trends observed in each segment as well as critical challenges and future
prospects.
The accommodation market in South Africa enjoyed its third consecutive year of strong
growth with a 9.1% advance following two years of double-digit gains.
Nigeria is forecast to be the fastest-growing market over the next five years with a projected
10.5% compound annual gain. Virtually all of that gain is expected during the latter three
years of the forecast period.
Mauritius posted a modest 1.8% advance in 2014, helped by rising tourism, but declining
room rates held down revenue growth.
Kenyas hotel market has been declining for three years and we expect a further drop in 2015
and for as long as security concerns in East Africa persist.
We at PwC continue to stay on top of trends and developments that may impact hospitality
companies, now and in the future, and look forward to sharing our thoughts further with you.
We appreciate your feedback and ask that you continue to tell us what we can do to make our
publications more relevant and useful to you.
If you would like clarification on any matters covered in this publication, or you believe we
can be of service to your business in any way, please contact one of our hospitality specialists
listed on page 57 of this report.
Finally, we thank you for your support and wish you an exciting and rewarding year ahead.
Sincerely,
Nikki Forster
Director
Hospitality Industry Leader
PwC Southern Africa
PwC 5
Table of contents
The Market
Overview
24
10
Caravan/camping sites,
bush lodges and other
accommodation in South
Africa
26
14
Hotel accommodation in
South Africa
16
28
29
Hotel accommodation in
Nigeria
34
Hotel accommodation in
Kenya
48
39
51
Hotel accommodation in
Mauritius
40
52
47
Hospitality industry
group contacts
56
PwC 7
The Market
10.8352
US$: naira
163.5910
Rand: euros
14.3798
Euros: rupees
39.1907
Euros: US$
0.7535
US$: shilling
86.5624
PwC 9
Overview
South Africa, Nigeria, Mauritius and Kenya have very different markets. South Africa
attracts a mix of business and holiday travellers and offers a wide range of hotel
classes and accommodation.
8%
increase
in foreign
visitors
10.3
million in
2014
PwC 11
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
South Africa
(total)
13 850
13 368
15 159
17 279
18 859
20 541
22 314
24 106
25 852
27 734
% change
16.7
-3.5
13.4
14.0
9.1
8.9
8.6
8.0
7.2
7.3
South Africa
(hotels only)
10 317
9 594
10 688
12 249
13 100
14 271
15 594
16 800
18 034
19 296
% change
16.9
-7.0
11.4
14.6
6.9
8.9
9.3
7.7
7.3
7.0
Nigeria*
2 947
3 641
4 009
4 367
4 280
4 182
4 345
4 789
5 580
7 054
% change
7.1
23.5
10.1
8.9
-2.0
-2.3
3.9
10.2
16.5
26.4
Mauritius*
6 945
7 492
7 808
7 118
7 247
7 362
7 578
7 866
8 283
8 657
% change
-0.6
7.9
4.2
-8.8
1.8
1.6
2.9
3.8
5.3
4.5
Kenya*
5 331
6 935
6 425
6 295
5 851
5 613
5 775
6 176
6 707
7 346
% change
5.6
30.1
-7.4
-2.0
-7.1
-4.1
2.9
6.9
8.6
9.5
Total hotel
revenue
25 540
27 662
28 930
30 029
30 478
31 428
33 292
35 631
38 604
42 353
% change
8.1
8.3
4.6
3.8
1.5
3.1
5.9
7.0
8.3
9.7
*Hotels only
Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
South Africa
Nigeria
Mauritius
Kenya
2015-19
CAGR
8.0
8.1
10.5
3.6
4.7
6.8
PwC 13
South Africa
The number of
available rooms will
grow at a 0.7%
compound annual rate
with the bulk of that
gain coming from new
hotels. With stay unit
nights increasing at a
faster rate than room
supply, the overall
occupancy rate will
increase to a projected
58.3% by 2019.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Available rooms
(thousands)
106.2
110.7
113.4
113.2
114.9
115.7
115.9
116.7
117.8
118.8
119.6
120.3
% change
1.5
4.2
2.4
-0.2
1.5
0.7
0.2
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
20.2
19.1
19.8
19.6
21.1
22.2
23.0
23.6
24.2
24.7
25.1
25.6
% change
-1.0
-5.4
3.7
-1.0
7.7
5.2
3.6
2.6
2.5
2.1
1.6
2.0
Occupancy
rates (%)
52.0
47.3
47.8
47.4
50.2
52.6
54.4
55.4
56.1
57.0
57.5
58.3
Average room
rates (R)
610
621
699
682
718
778
820
870
922
976
1 030
1 083
% change
13.8
1.8
12.6
-2.4
5.3
8.4
5.4
6.1
6.0
5.9
5.5
5.1
Total room
revenue
(R millions)
12 312
11 867
13 850
13 368
15 159
17
279
18 859
20 541
22 314
24 106
25 852
27 734
% change
12.6
-3.6
16.7
-3.5
13.4
14.0
9.1
8.9
8.6
8.0
7.2
7.3
2015-19
CAGR
0.7
2.2
5.7
8.0
PwC 15
Hotel accommodation
Between 2008 and 2010, the number of available rooms
increased by 20% and there was an additional 2.9%
increase in 2011 as rooms that entered the market in 2010
enjoyed a full-year of availability. This increase was far
faster than the market could bear and occupancy rates
dropped from 68.4% in 2008 to 53.0% in 2011.
Figure 2. Hotel occupancy rates in South Africa (%)
70
65
60
55
50
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2015-19
CAGR
South Africa
2.9
-1.4
3.0
3.1
2.2
2.3
1.4
2.1
2.5
3.0
3.5
3.7
3.0
Global
1.8
-1.7
4.3
3.0
2.4
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.6
Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Statistics South Africa, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
South Africa
Global
PwC 17
1400
1200
1000
800
600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Hotel room revenue is expected to expand to R19.3 billion in 2019, up 8.1% compounded annually from R13.1 billion in
2014.
Hotels in South Africa
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Available rooms
(thousands)
49.1
53.7
58.8
60.5
60.4
60.9
60.8
61.2
62.0
62.7
63.2
63.6
% change
1.2
9.4
9.5
2.9
-0.2
0.8
-0.2
0.7
1.3
1.1
0.8
0.6
12.3
10.9
11.4
11.7
12.5
13.1
13.1
13.4
13.8
14.0
14.2
14.4
% change
-3.1
-11.4
4.6
2.6
6.8
4.8
0.0
2.3
3.0
1.4
1.4
1.4
Occupancy
rates (%)
68.4
55.6
53.1
53.0
56.5
58.9
59.0
60.0
60.8
61.2
61.6
62.0
Average room
rates (R)
775
810
905
820
855
935
1 000
1 065
1 130
1 200
1 270
1 340
% change
16.5
4.5
11.7
-9.4
4.3
9.4
7.0
6.5
6.1
6.2
5.8
5.5
Total room
revenue
(R millions)
9 533
8 829
10 317
9 594
10 688
12 249
13 100
14 271
15 594
16
800
18 034
19 296
% change
12.9
-7.4
16.9
-7.0
11.4
14.6
6.9
8.9
9.3
7.7
7.3
7.0
2015-19
CAGR
0.9
1.9
6.0
8.1
Three-star hotels
13%
36%
Stay unit nights for three-star hotels were flat in 2014 but
the 6.9% increase in the average room rate resulted in an
equivalent increase in revenue.
Other
18%
33%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Available rooms
(thousands)
16.9
18.4
20.4
21.6
21.6
21.7
21.7
21.9
22.0
22.1
22.3
22.4
% change
2.4
8.9
10.9
5.9
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.4
4.2
3.9
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.3
5.5
5.7
5.8
% change
0.0
-7.1
10.3
4.7
6.7
4.2
0.0
2.0
3.9
3.8
3.6
1.8
Occupancy
rates (%)
67.9
58.1
57.7
57.1
60.7
63.1
63.1
63.8
65.8
68.2
70.0
70.9
Average room
rates (R)
625
650
720
690
730
800
855
915
970
1 020
1 075
1 125
% change
16.8
4.0
10.8
-4.2
5.8
9.6
6.9
7.0
6.0
5.2
5.4
4.7
Total room
revenue
(R millions)
2 625
2 535
3 096
3 105
3 504
4 000
4 275
4 667
5 141
5 610
6 128
6 525
% change
16.8
-3.4
22.1
0.3
12.9
14.2
6.9
9.2
10.2
9.1
9.2
6.5
2015-19
CAGR
0.6
3.0
5.6
8.8
PwC 19
70
60
50
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
800
625
650
720
690
855
915
970
1020
1075
1125
730
600
400
200
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Four-star hotels
Available rooms and stay units nights were both flat for
four-star hotels in 2014. As with three-star hotels, revenue
growth for four-star hotels was generated by an increase in
the average room rate, which rose 5.3% to R4.7 billion.
As with the rest of the market, we look for a pickup in stay
unit nights beginning in 2015 and project mid-single-digit
growth in average room rates. We expect a 3.4% compound
annual increase in stay unit nights, while the number of
available rooms is expected to grow only 0.8% compounded
annually, resulting in an increase in the occupancy rate
from 62.5% in 2014 to 70.8% in 2018.
We project average room rates to increase at a 5.5%
compound annual rate, keeping pace with projected
inflation, to an estimated R1 565 in 2019. Room revenue
will increase from R4.7 billion in 2014 to R7.2 billion in
2019, a 9.0% compound annual gain.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Available rooms
(thousands)
14.1
15.1
16.1
16.7
16.6
17.1
17.1
17.2
17.3
17.5
17.7
17.8
% change
1.4
7.1
6.6
3.7
-0.6
3.0
0.0
0.6
0.6
1.2
1.1
0.6
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.6
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.5
4.6
% change
-5.3
-11.1
0.0
3.1
9.1
8.3
0.0
2.6
5.0
2.4
4.7
2.2
Occupancy
rates (%)
69.8
58.1
54.5
54.1
59.3
62.5
62.5
63.7
66.3
67.3
69.7
70.8
Average room
rates (R)
1 015
1 050
1 175
1 030
1 055
1 140
1 200
1 265
1 335
1 410
1 490
1 565
% change
19.4
3.4
11.9
-12.3
2.4
8.1
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.0
Total room
revenue
(R millions)
3 654
3 360
3 760
3 399
3 798
4 446
4 680
5 060
5 607
6 063
6 705
7 199
% change
13.1
-8.0
11.9
-9.6
11.7
17.1
5.3
8.1
10.8
8.1
10.6
7.4
2015-19
CAGR
0.8
3.4
5.5
9.0
PwC 21
Five-star hotels
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Available rooms
(thousands)
2.4
2.5
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.4
% change
-4.0
4.2
24.0
3.2
0.0
0.0
-3.1
0.0
3.2
0.0
3.1
3.0
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
% change
-16.7
0.0
20.0
0.0
16.7
14.3
0.0
12.5
0.0
0.0
11.1
0.0
Occupancy
rates (%)
56.9
54.8
53.0
51.4
59.8
68.5
70.7
79.5
76.8
77.1
83.0
80.6
Average room
rates (R)
1 875
1 920
2 115
1 750
1 780
1 950
2 200
2 440
2 650
2 790
2 945
3 110
% change
24.6
2.4
10.2
-17.3
1.7
9.6
12.8
10.9
8.6
5.3
5.6
5.6
Total room
revenue
(R millions)
938
960
1 269
1 050
1 246
1 560
1 760
2 196
2 385
2 511
2 945
3 110
% change
3.9
2.3
32.2
-17.3
18.7
25.2
12.8
24.8
8.6
5.3
17.3
5.6
2015-19
CAGR
1.9
4.6
7.2
12.1
6
80
5
4
70
60
2
50
1
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Three-star hotels
Four-star hotels
Five-star hotels
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Three-star hotels
Four-star hotels
Five-star hotels
Johannesburg
Cape Town
Growth occurred in all segments of the market with fivestar, four-star and three-star hotels each expanding at
comparable rates.
The strong showing in Cape Town is attracting investors.
A total investment of R3.5 billion is planned for new
hotels in Cape Town over the next four years, which will
result in adding 2 100 rooms to the overall market.
We expect most of the growth in the overall hotel market
in South Africa over the next five years to be generated in
Cape Town.
Durban
Durban is a much smaller market than either
Johannesburg or Cape Town and appeals to tourists
looking for sandy beaches, waterfront hotels, game
and nature reserves, casinos, as well as art galleries
and museums, as well as a stopping off point for
tourists looking to explore nature. Durban also is
an international conference centre that attracts
international business travellers. However, Durban is
a more popular destination for domestic tourists than
for international tourists.
The hotel market in Durban was comparable to that
of Johannesburg in 2014. Stay unit nights fell 2%,
average room rates rose 3% and revenue was up 1%.
Durban is redeveloping its coastline, which should
attract more visitors. There are also plans for a new
cruise terminal, which will benefit cruise occupancy
more than hotels. Durbans hotels should benefit from
these upgrades as well as from an improved economic
environment and growth in tourism, but we do not
expect increases to match the market in Cape Town.
PwC 23
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Available rooms
(thousands)
10.4
10.1
9.8
9.1
9.2
9.5
9.6
9.7
9.8
9.9
10.0
10.1
% change
8.3
-2.9
-3.0
-7.1
1.1
3.3
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.5
% change
6.7
0.0
6.3
5.9
22.2
-4.5
4.8
4.5
0.0
4.3
0.0
4.2
Occupancy
rates (%)
42.0
43.4
47.5
54.2
65.3
60.5
62.9
65.0
64.1
66.5
65.8
67.8
Average room
rates (R)
595
579
620
690
665
745
850
940
1 020
1 090
1 150
1 200
% change
1.7
-2.7
7.1
11.3
-3.6
12.0
14.1
10.6
8.5
6.9
5.5
4.3
Total room
revenue
(R millions)
952
926
1 054
1 242
1 463
1 565
1 870
2 162
2 346
2 616
2 760
3 000
% change
8.4
-2.7
13.8
17.8
17.8
7.0
19.5
15.6
8.5
11.5
5.5
8.7
2015-19
CAGR
1.0
2.6
7.1
9.9
940
1020
1090
1150
1200
850
800
600
595
579
620
690
745
665
400
200
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Caravan/camping
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
PwC 25
was only 2.0% in 2014, much lower than room rate growth
in other sectors. Revenue increased 12.2%, the third
consecutive year of double-digit growth. This segment of
the market has done relatively well in the face of a slowing
economy.
Relatively modest price increases averaging 4.4%
compounded annually will hold down growth in this
segment, as we do not expect stay unit night growth to
match the increases of the past two years. We look for stay
unit nights to expand at a 2.5% compound annual rate
and room revenue to increase at a 6.9% rate compounded
annually to R5.4 billion in 2019 from R3.9 billion in 2014.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Available rooms
(thousands)
46.7
46.9
44.8
43.6
45.3
45.3
45.5
45.8
46.0
46.2
46.4
46.6
% change
0.4
0.4
-4.5
-2.7
3.9
0.0
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
6.3
6.6
6.7
6.1
6.4
7.0
7.7
7.9
8.1
8.3
8.5
8.7
% change
1.6
4.8
1.5
-9.0
4.9
9.4
10.0
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.4
Occupancy
rates (%)
36.9
38.6
41.0
38.3
38.6
42.3
46.4
47.2
48.1
49.2
50.2
51.1
Average room
rates (R)
290
320
370
415
470
495
505
520
540
565
595
625
% change
11.5
10.3
15.6
12.2
13.3
5.3
2.0
3.0
3.8
4.6
5.3
5.0
Total room
revenue
(R millions)
1 827
2 112
2 479
2 532
3 008
3 465
3 889
4 108
4 374
4 690
5 058
5 438
% change
13.3
15.6
17.4
2.1
18.8
15.2
12.2
5.6
6.5
7.2
7.8
7.5
2015-19
CAGR
0.5
2.5
4.4
6.9
PwC 27
Actual
growth
52.8
54.4
61.1
59.0
22.4
23.0
12.4
9.1
19 430
18 859
Projected stay
unit nights
(millions)
Projected stay
unit nights
(millions)
Five-star hotels
0.8
0.8
Four-star hotels
4.0
3.9
Three-star hotels
5.1
5.0
All hotels
13.6
13.1
All
22.4
23.0
Occupancy
Actual occupancy
(%)
Five-star hotels
70.7
70.7
Four-star hotels
63.7
62.5
Three-star hotels
64.4
63.1
All hotels
61.1
59.0
All
52.8
54.4
Five-star hotels
17.7
12.8
Four-star hotels
14.7
5.3
Three-star hotels
11.6
6.9
All hotels
15.5
6.9
All
12.4
9.1
Projected
average room
rate growth (%)
Actual average
room rate growth
(%)
Five-star hotels
17.7
12.8
Four-star hotels
11.8
5.3
Three-star hotels
9.4
6.9
All hotels
11.2
7.0
All
11.4
5.4
Outlook: 2015-2019
Figure 12. Available rooms (thousands)
Available rooms
The overall number of available rooms rose 0.2% in 2014,
down from the 0.7% increase in 2013.
We expect room availability to increase at modest rates
for each category with guest houses projected to be the
fastest-growing category averaging 1.0% compounded
annually. Hotels will increase at a projected 0.9% compound
annual rate while caravan/camping sites, bush lodges and
other accommodation expected to rise by only 0.5% on a
compound annual basis. Demand is not beginning to fill
excess capacity but the market remains cautious.
Overall room availability is projected to increase at a 0.7%
compound annual rate to 120,300 in 2019 from 115,900 in
2014.
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Hotels
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Hotels
49.1
53.7
58.8
60.5
60.4
60.9
60.8
61.2
62.0
62.7
63.2
63.6
% change
1.2
9.4
9.5
2.9
-0.2
0.8
-0.2
0.7
1.3
1.1
0.8
0.6
Guest houses/
guest farms
10.4
10.1
9.8
9.1
9.2
9.5
9.6
9.7
9.8
9.9
10.0
10.1
% change
8.3
-2.9
-3.0
-7.1
1.1
3.3
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Caravan/
camping sites,
bush lodges
and other
accommodation
46.7
46.9
44.8
43.6
45.3
45.3
45.5
45.8
46.0
46.2
46.4
46.6
% change
0.4
0.4
-4.5
-2.7
3.9
0.0
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Total
106.2
110.7
113.4
113.2
114.9
115.7
115.9
116.7
117.8
118.8
119.6
120.3
% change
1.5
4.2
2.4
-0.2
1.5
0.7
0.2
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
2015-19
CAGR
0.9
1.0
0.5
0.7
PwC 29
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Hotels
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Hotels
12.3
10.9
11.4
11.7
12.5
13.1
13.1
13.4
13.8
14.0
14.2
14.4
% change
-3.1
-11.4
4.6
2.6
6.8
4.8
0.0
2.3
3.0
1.4
1.4
1.4
Guest houses/
guest farms
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.5
% change
6.7
0.0
6.3
5.9
22.2
-4.5
4.8
4.5
0.0
4.3
0.0
4.2
Caravan/
camping sites,
bush lodges
and other
accommodation
6.3
6.6
6.7
6.1
6.4
7.0
7.7
7.9
8.1
8.3
8.5
8.7
% change
1.6
4.8
1.5
-9.0
4.9
9.4
10.0
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.4
Total
20.2
19.1
19.8
19.6
21.1
22.2
23.0
23.6
24.2
24.7
25.1
25.6
% change
-1.0
-5.4
3.7
-1.0
7.7
5.2
3.6
2.6
2.5
2.1
1.6
2.0
2015-19
CAGR
1.9
2.6
2.5
2.2
Occupancy rates
The overall occupancy rate rose to 54.4% in 2014 with
each category increasing. Guest houses/guest farms had
the highest occupancy rate at 62.9%.
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Hotels
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Caravan/camping sites, bush
Guest houses and guest farms
lodges and other accomodation
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Hotels
68.4
55.6
53.1
53.0
56.5
58.9
59.0
60.0
60.8
61.2
61.6
62.0
Guest houses/
guest farms
42.0
43.4
47.5
54.2
65.3
60.5
62.9
65.0
64.1
66.5
65.8
67.8
Caravan/
camping sites,
bush lodges
and other
accommodation
36.9
38.6
41.0
38.3
38.6
42.3
46.4
47.2
48.1
49.2
50.2
51.1
Total
52.0
47.3
47.8
47.4
50.2
52.6
54.4
55.4
56.1
57.0
57.5
58.3
PwC 31
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Hotels
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Hotels
775
810
905
820
855
935
1 000
1 065
1 130
1 200
1 270
1 340
% change
16.5
4.5
11.7
-9.4
4.3
9.4
7.0
6.5
6.1
6.2
5.8
5.5
Guest houses/
guest farms
595
579
620
690
665
745
850
940
1 020
1 090
1 150
1 200
% change
1.7
-2.7
7.1
11.3
-3.6
12.0
14.1
10.6
8.5
6.9
5.5
4.3
Caravan/
camping sites,
bush lodges
and other
accommodation
290
320
370
415
470
495
505
520
540
565
595
625
% change
11.5
10.3
15.6
12.2
13.3
5.3
2.0
3.0
3.8
4.6
5.3
5.0
Total
610
621
699
682
718
778
820
870
922
976
1 030
1 083
% change
13.8
1.8
12.6
-2.4
5.3
8.4
5.4
6.1
6.0
5.9
5.5
5.1
2015-19
CAGR
6.0
7.1
4.4
5.7
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Hotels
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Hotels
9 533
8 829
10 317
9 594
10 688
12 249
13 100
14 271
15 594
16 800
18 034
19 296
% change
12.9
-7.4
16.9
-7.0
11.4
14.6
6.9
8.9
9.3
7.7
7.3
7.0
Guest houses/
guest farms
952
926
1 054
1 242
1 463
1 565
1 870
2 162
2 346
2 616
2 760
3 000
% change
8.4
-2.7
13.8
17.8
17.8
7.0
19.5
15.6
8.5
11.5
5.5
8.7
Caravan/
camping sites
bush lodges
and other
accommodation
1 827
2 112
2 479
2 532
3 008
3 465
3 889
4 108
4 374
4 690
5 058
5 438
% change
13.3
15.6
17.4
2.1
18.8
15.2
12.2
5.6
6.5
7.2
7.8
7.5
Total
12 312
11 867
13 850
13 368
15 159
17 279
18 859
20 541
22 314
24 106
25 852
27 734
% change
12.6
-3.6
16.7
-3.5
13.4
14.0
9.1
8.9
8.6
8.0
7.2
7.3
2015-19
CAGR
8.1
9.9
6.9
8.0
PwC 33
PwC 35
25
22.5
19.5
20
16
15
12.5
10
7.1
7.9
8.4
8.8
9.7
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2015-19
CAGR
Nigeria
7.8
4.7
4.3
5.4
6.3
5.5
5.8
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.9
Global
4.3
3.0
2.4
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.6
Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
60
10
50.2
50
52
54.6
55.4
49.8
42.4
40
6
32.8
30
4
25.3
26.8
20
27.4
10
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nigeria
Global
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
While the long-term outlook for Nigeria is bright, we expect ongoing concerns about terrorism to continue to hurt the
hotel market in the near term and project stay unit nights to fall by an additional 6.3% in 2015.
We expect stay unit nights to stabilise in 2015 and then resume an upward expansion with double-digit increases
projected for 2018-19. These gains, however, will not match the explosive growth in available rooms and we expect
occupancy rates in the near term to fall and to keep declining through to 2018 before beginning to recover in 2019.
Hotels
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Available rooms
(thousands)
7.1
7.9
8.0
8.4
8.8
9.7
12.5
16.0
19.5
22.5
% change
12.7
11.3
1.3
5.0
4.8
10.2
28.9
28.0
21.9
15.4
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.8
2.2
% change
8.3
15.4
6.7
6.3
-5.9
-6.3
0.0
6.7
12.5
22.2
Occupancy
rates (%)
50.2
52.0
54.6
55.4
49.8
42.4
32.8
27.4
25.3
26.8
Average room
rates (US$)
209
224
231
237
247
257
267
276
286
296
% change
-1.4
7.2
3.1
2.6
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.4
3.6
3.5
(US$ millions)
272
336
370
403
395
386
401
442
515
651
% change
7.1
23.5
10.1
8.9
-2.0
-2.3
3.9
10.2
16.5
26.4
2015-19
CAGR
20.7
6.6
3.7
Total room
revenue
10.5
PwC 37
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Available rooms
(thousands)
3.8
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.5
4.9
5.5
6.3
7.3
% change
2.7
10.5
2.4
0.0
0.0
4.7
8.9
12.2
14.5
15.9
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.2
% change
14.3
12.5
0.0
11.1
-10.0
-11.1
0.0
12.5
11.1
20.0
Occupancy
rates (%)
57.7
58.7
57.2
63.7
57.3
48.7
44.6
44.8
43.5
45.0
Average room
rates (US$)
228
246
251
259
265
273
281
289
296
304
% change
2.2
7.9
2.0
3.2
2.3
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.4
2.7
(US$ millions)
182
221
226
259
239
218
225
260
296
365
% change
16.7
21.4
2.3
14.6
-7.7
-8.8
3.2
15.6
13.8
23.3
2015-19
CAGR
11.2
5.9
2.8
Total room
revenue
8.8
Actual
Occupancy (%)
54.8
49.8
1.8
1.6
8.5
-2.0
6.0
-7.7
Outlook: 2015-2019
Figure 20. Stay unit nights (millions)
2,5
700
651
2.2
600
2,0
1.8
1.7
1,5
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.3
515
500
442
403
400
370
395
386
401
336
300
1,0
272
200
0,5
0,0
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
PwC 39
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mauritius
Global
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2015-19
CAGR
Mauritius
4.2
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.5
3.7
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.8
3.9
Global
4.3
3.0
2.4
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.6
Sources: Mauritius Chamber of Commerce and Industry, International Monetary Fund, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
PwC 41
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Tourist arrivals
934.8
964.6
965.4
993.1
1 039.0
1 070.0
1 100.0
1 135.0
1 175.0
1 220.0
% change
7.3
3.2
0.1
2.9
4.6
3.0
2.8
3.2
3.5
3.8
2015-19
CAGR
3.3
1400
1 220
1200
1000
935
965
965
1993
1039
1 070
1 100
1135
800
600
400
200
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2014
% change
Austria
7 937
8 303
4.6
Belgium
11 566
11 465
-0.9
France
244 752
243 665
-0.4
Germany
60 530
62 231
2.8
Italy
31 205
29 557
-5.3
Netherlands
4 499
4 796
6.6
Spain
8 441
8 633
2.3
Sweden
4 577
6 454
41.0
The recent decline in the euro is not good for the majority
of hotels, although growth in UK tourism helps. Tour
operators are putting pressure on hotels to align rates in
sterling with those in euros.
Switzerland
27 756
29 285
5.5
United Kingdom
98 017
115 326
17.7
Russia
14 905
13 289
-10.8
Other
32 861
37 544
14.3
Total Europe
547 046
570 548
4.3
1 175
Comoros
2013
2014
% change
2013
2014
% change
United States
5 777
7 308
26.5
1 147
938
-18.2
Canada
4 435
4 710
6.2
5 261
4 530
-13.9
15 473
16 548
6.9
Kenya
2 865
3 266
14.0
Other
Madagascar
13 943
13 039
-6.5
Total
Runion
143 114
141 665
-1.0
Seychelles
7 187
6 926
-3.6
South Africa
94 208
93 120
-1.2
Zimbabwe
1 526
1 735
13.7
Other
13 783
13 467
-2.3
Total
277 773
274 156
-1.3
2014
% change
Australia
18 393
17 529
-4.7
Hong Kong
1 449
1 455
0.4
India
57 255
61 167
6.8
Japan
1 768
1 659
-6.2
Malaysia
3 174
2 970
-6.4
China
41 913
63 365
51.2
Singapore
2 112
1 849
-12.5
South Korea
2 778
3 182
14.5
United Arab
Emirates
8 161
8 001
-2.0
Other
14 911
15 840
6.2
Total
151 914
177 017
16.5
PwC 43
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2015-19
CAGR
Available rooms
(thousands)
12.075
11.925
12.527
12.376
12.730
13.100
13.470
13.850
14.250
14.630
% change
5.4
-1.2
5.0
-1.2
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.86
2.83
2.86
2.86
2.93
3.01
3.10
3.20
3.31
3.40
% change
10.0
-1.0
1.1
0.0
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.4
2.7
64.9
65.0
62.4
63.3
63.1
63.0
62.9
63.3
63.6
63.7
169
184
190
173
172
170
170
171
174
177
% change
-9.6
8.9
3.3
-8.9
-0.6
-1.2
0.0
0.6
1.8
1.7
0.6
(US$ millions)
483
521
543
495
504
512
527
547
576
602
3.6
% change
-0.6
7.9
4.2
-8.8
1.8
1.6
2.9
3.8
5.3
4.5
3.6
2.8
3.0
250
80
70
64.9
65
62.4
63.3
63.1
63
62.9
63.3
63.6
63.7
60
200
184
169
50
190
173
172
170
170
171
174
177
150
40
100
30
20
50
10
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Five-star hotels
Average room rates for five-star hotels have been relatively
steady in recent years, edging up 0.4% in 2014, but
remaining 1% lower than in 2010. Faced with competition
from The Maldives, Sri Lanka and The Seychelles, hotels
have been reluctant to raise room rates in recent years.
We expect rates to edge down over the next three years
and then rise at modest rates in 2018-19 as the underlying
market improves. The average room rate of 239 (R3 437)
in 2019 will be 0.2% lower on a compound annual basis
than in 2014.
300
250
244
233
242
241
242
236
232
230
233
239
200
150
100
50
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Available rooms
(thousands)
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
% change
2.3
6.7
4.2
2.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
% change
14.3
12.5
11.1
0.0
10.0
9.1
0.0
8.3
0.0
0.0
48.7
51.4
54.6
53.7
59.1
63.2
63.1
67.2
66.0
64.8
244
233
242
241
242
236
232
230
233
239
% change
-10.9
-4.5
3.9
-0.4
0.4
-2.5
-1.7
-0.9
1.3
2.6
(US$ millions)
195
210
242
241
266
283
278
299
303
311
% change
1.6
7.7
15.2
-0.4
10.4
6.4
-1.8
7.6
1.3
2.6
2015-19
CAGR
1.5
3.4
-0.2
3.2
PwC 45
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Available rooms
(thousands)
6.3
6.6
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
% change
1.6
4.8
0.0
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.6
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
% change
10.0
18.2
-7.7
0.0
-8.3
0.0
9.1
0.0
8.3
0.0
47.8
54.0
49.7
48.3
43.1
41.9
44.3
43.3
45.7
44.5
105
111
112
107
111
115
119
123
127
132
% change
-13.2
5.7
0.9
-4.5
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.9
(US$ millions)
116
144
134
128
122
127
143
148
165
172
% change
-4.1
24.1
-6.9
-4.5
-4.7
4.1
12.6
3.5
11.5
4.2
2015-19
CAGR
2.7
3.4
3.5
7.1
Projected
Actual
62.6
63.1
2.90
2.93
1,020.0
1,039.0
2.7
1.8
10.6
10.4
1.6
-4.7
Outlook: 2015-2019
Figure 27. Stay unit nights (millions)
4,0
3,5
3,0
2.86
2.83
2.86
2.86
2.93
3.01
3.1
3.2
3.31
3.4
2,5
521
500
483
543
495
504
512
527
547
576
602
400
2,0
300
1,5
200
1,0
100
0,5
0,0
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
PwC 47
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2015-19
CAGR
Kenya
5.8
4.4
4.6
4.7
5.0
5.7
6.0
6.3
6.1
6.0
6.0
Global
4.3
3.0
2.4
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.6
Sources: International Monetary Fund, Rabobank, World Bank, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
PwC 49
160
80
156
70
155
66.1
60
60
62.3
56.4
55.4
51.3
50
50.7
52.8
150
150
148
151
148
145
140
40
135
30
133
130
20
125
10
0
154
153
150
60.3
59.5
152
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Hotels
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Available rooms
(thousands)
16.9
17.0
17.1
17.5
17.8
18.7
19.4
19.7
19.9
20.0
% change
1.8
0.6
0.6
2.3
1.7
5.1
3.7
1.5
1.0
0.5
3.7
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.4
% change
0.0
10.8
-4.9
-2.6
-5.3
-2.8
2.9
5.6
7.9
7.3
60.0
66.1
62.3
59.5
55.4
51.3
50.7
52.8
56.4
60.3
(US$)
133
156
152
153
150
148
148
150
151
154
% change
5.6
17.3
-2.6
0.7
-2.0
-1.3
0.0
1.4
0.7
2.0
(US$ millions)
492
640
593
581
540
518
533
570
619
678
% change
5.6
30.1
-7.3
-2.0
-7.1
-4.1
2.9
6.9
8.6
9.5
2015-19
CAGR
2.4
4.1
4.7
Actual
Occupancy (%)
55.1
55.4
3.6
3.6
-5.3
-7.1
Outlook: 2015-2019
Figure 31. Stay unit nights (millions)
5
4.4
4.1
3.7
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.6
3.8
700
593
600
500
678
640
619
581
540
492
570
518
533
400
2
300
200
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
We project stay unit nights to decline for an additional year Total room revenue will expand by 4.7% compounded
and then begin to recover in 2016. Stay unit nights will total annually, rising to US$678 million (R7.3 billion) in 2019
an estimated 4.4 million in 2019, a 4.1% compound annual from US$540 million (R5.9 billion) in 2014.
increase from 3.6 million in 2014.
The occupancy rate will fall during the next two years as we
are projecting capacity to grow faster than demand in the
near term, but then rebound, rising to an estimated 60.3%
in 2019 from 55.4% in 2014.
PwC 51
PwC 53
References
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PwC Africa
Hospitality industry group contacts
Technology, Information, Communications and
Entertainment Industry Leader South Africa
Berno Niebuhr
Nikki Forster
berno.niebuhr@za.pwc.com
+27 (0)12 429 0050
Nikki.forster@za.pwc.com
+27 (0)11 797 5362
Marthie Crafford
Osere Alakhume
osere.alakhume@ng.pwc.com
+234 (1) 271 1700 Ext 4103
Marthie.crafford@za.pwc.com
+27 (0)11 797 4555
Jean-Pierre Young
Louis Carney
Louis.carney@za.pwc.com
+27 (0)11 797 4715
jean-pierre.young@mu.pwc.com
+230 404 5028
Michael Mugasa
Jan Groenewald
jan.groenewald@za.pwc.com
+27 (0)11 797 5380
michael.mugasa@ke.pwc.com
+254 20 2855 688
Peter McCrystal
peter.mccrystal@za.pwc.com
+27 (0)11 797 5275
PwC 55