To:

Interested Parties

From: Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Corey Teter, Lake Research Partners
RE:

New Poll Results Show Rep. Mooney Highly Vulnerable in WV-02

Date:

September 9 , 2016

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A recent survey among likely 2016 voters in West Virginias 2 Congressional District shows Democrat Mark Hunt
in a highly competitive race against incumbent Republican Congressman Alex Mooney. Mooney, whose upside down
personal image and job performance ratings are both net-negative, is clearly vulnerable: he starts out under forty
percent on the initial trial heat and falls behind Hunt on the informed trial heat. Mooneys weakness opens the door
for Hunt to assume the lead in this race, provided his campaign has the resources to communicate his compelling
profile and contrast message to the voters.

Although he is a sitting incumbent, Mooney is locked in a statistical tie with Hunt today. Mooney receives
only 38% of the vote to Hunts 35%, which falls within the polls margin of error. Additionally, one-in-four voters
are still undecided and a majority of the undecided voters identify as Democrats and independents.

Hunt pulls into the lead in the informed trial heat. After simulating an engaged debate where both Hunt and
Mooney have equal resources for communications, Hunt opens up a narrow lead in the race with a profile that
focuses on Marks record of effectiveness on behalf of West Virginia (43% for Hunt to 41% for Mooney).

Text of Informed Trial Heat

Lake Research Partners

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1101 17 Street NW,
Suite 301
Washington, DC 20036
Tel: 202.776.9066
Fax: 202.776.9074

Partners
Celinda Lake
Alysia Snell
David Mermin
Dr. Robert G. Meadow
Daniel Gotoff
Joshua Ulibarri

Hunt Profile

Mooney Profile

Mark Hunt is an attorney, a former member of the state

Alex Mooney is a husband and father of three daughters who ran

legislature, and a proud father of three boys. Mark has

for Congress to protect West Virginia values and ensure that our

always been a fighter for West Virginia families. Hes

state continues to be a great place to raise a family. Since then,

helped lower the tax burden on the middle class and small

Alex has consistently voted to reduce the size and scope of

businesses, fought for more investments in public schools,

government, encourage job creation by lowering taxes on the

and made sure that our seniors and veterans are given the

private sector, and defended West Virginia from President

care they deserve. Mark has also fought to keep our

Obamas disastrous policies like Obamacare and his EPAs war

children safe by leading the effort to pass Megans Law in

on coal. As our representative, Alex will continue to stand for

West Virginia, a required national registry for sex offenders

conservative values, fighting to protect our seniors, defending

that allows parents to know who is living in their

Americans second amendment rights, and protect our states

neighborhood. In Congress, Mark will fight every day for

energy production from job-killing regulations. We can trust Alex

working people.

to protect West Virginia from Washington.

Mooneys personal and professional profile are both underwater. Only 26% of voters in the district have a
favorable opinion of Alex Mooney compared to 30% who view him unfavorably. Mooneys job performance is
in even worse shape, with 47% of voters saying that he is doing a just fair or poor job compared to just 18%
who rate his performance positively.
Record low Re-elect for Mooney: 52% of voters in the district say they plan either to replace Mooney or
would consider voting for someone else. Just 23% of voters believe Mooney should be re-electedone of the
lowest re-elect ratings we have seen this or any cycle.

In summary, Alex Mooney is highly vulnerable due to his weak image and job performance ratings, as well as the
strength of Mark Hunts profile and agenda, which sets up a clear contrast between the two candidates. With the
necessary resources behind his campaign, Hunt can win this seat.

Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey that was conducted by telephone using professional interviewers. The survey
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reached a total 400 likely 2016 voters in WV-02. The survey was conducted August 28 through September 6 , 2016. Margin of error: +/- 4.9%.