DJ ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK -

Majors
Thu Jun 03 19:30:00 EDT 2010
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major
currency pairs today:

Immediate Range Larger Range

USD/JPY 92.00-92.80 90.89-92.96
EUR/USD 1.2150-1.2269 1.2109-1.2326
AUD/USD 0.8362-0.8522 0.8273-0.8551
NZD/USD 0.6781-0.6899 0.6715-0.6913
GBP/USD 1.4583-1.4680 1.4552-1.4743
USD/CHF 1.1515-1.1573 1.1467-1.1602
USD/CAD 1.0359-1.0463 1.0333-1.0573
EUR/JPY 112.11-114.16 111.00-114.40
EUR/GBP 0.8278-0.8384 0.8230-0.8419

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option
strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to consolidate with risks skewed higher amid bullish USD sentiment (ICE dollar
index last 87.179 vs Wednesday's 86.793 settlement) as markets bet on strong May U.S. non-
farm payrolls report due 1230 GMT (consensus is for gain of 515,000 jobs, would be biggest
monthly rise since 1983 vs 290,000 growth in April; unemployment rate likely fell to 9.7% from
9.9% in April). USD/JPY also supported by speculation yen-bearish Finance Minister Kan will
be selected new Japan PM at 0200 GMT DPJ election event, higher U.S. Treasury yields, USD
demand for import settlements, JPY-funded carry trades as risk sentiment stays benign (VIX fear
gauge eased 2.35% to 29.46) after Wall Street ended with modest gains overnight (DJIA up
0.06%, Nasdaq up 0.96%) despite mixed U.S. data (ADP report showed weaker-than-expected
private-sector jobs growth for May, but latest weekly jobless claims fell more-than-expected
10,000). USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales, lingering worries over euro-zone
debt crisis, positions adjustment before weekend. Other data focus: 0045 GMT Fed's Fisher
speaks, 1330 GMT Fed's Lockhart speaks. USD/JPY daily chart positive-biased as MACD &
stochastics bullish mode. Resistance at 92.80 (yesterday's high); breach would target 92.96 (May
18 high), then 93.64 (May 13 reaction high), psychological 94.00 and 94.98 (May 5 top).
Support at 92.00 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 90.89 (Wednesday's low),
then 90.52 (Tuesday's low), 89.79 (May 26 low) and 89.24 (May 25 low).

EUR/USD - to consolidate with soft tone as markets await U.S jobs data. Pair weighed by
positive USD sentiment, continuing worries over euro zone's fiscal troubles, concerns sovereigns
may trim EUR holdings in their reserves; weak euro-zone data: April retail sales slumped 1.2%
on month (vs forecast for 0.1% rise), while final May composite PMI slipped to 56.4 from
April's 57.3. Data focus: 0900 GMT euro-zone 1Q GDP (revised). EUR/USD daily chart mixed
as MACD bullish, but stochastics staying suppressed at oversold. Support at 1.2150 (yesterday's
low); breach would expose downside to 1.2109 (Tuesday's 4-year low), then psychological
1.2000, 1.1823 (Feb. 27, 2006 reaction low) and 1.1775 (Dec. 30, 2005 reaction low). Resistance
at 1.2269 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 1.2326 (yesterday's high), then 1.2353
(Tuesday's high), 1.2452 (May 28 high) and 1.2559 (May 24 high).

AUD/USD - to consolidate before U.S. jobs data. Pair undermined by bullish USD sentiment,
continued worries over Chinese economic slowdown. But AUD/USD losses tempered by AUD
demand for long-AUD carry trades on increased risk appetite, firmer commodity prices (CRB
spot index closed up 1.95 yesterday at 254.89), lingering effect of yesterday's strong Australia
April trade surplus data. AUD/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, stochastics neutral.
Resistance at 0.8522 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8551 (May 28 reaction
high), then 0.8576 (previous base set Feb. 5), 0.8637 (May 19 high) and 0.8714 (previous base
set May 6). Support at 0.8362 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 0.8273
(Wednesday's low), then 0.8188 (May 26 low), 0.8065 (10-month low set May 25) and
psychological 0.8000.

NZD/USD - to range-trade before U.S. payrolls data. Pair undermined by positive USD
sentiment; but downside limited by NZD demand for long-NZD carry trades on higher risk
appetite, firmer commodity prices, expectations RBNZ will hike policy rate from 2.5% at its
meeting on Thursday. NZD/USD daily chart positive-biased as stochastics & MACD in bullish
mode. Resistance at 0.6899 (yesterday's high); breach would target 0.6913 (previous base set
May 17), then 0.7030 (confluence of 55-day & 100-day moving averages), 0.7039 (May 18 high)
and 0.7130 (200-day moving average). Support at 0.6781 (hourly chart); breach would expose
downside to 0.6715 (Wednesday's low), then 0.6699 (Tuesday's low), 0.6623 (May 27 low),
0.6602 (May 26 low) and 0.6559 (9-month low set May 25).

GBP/USD - to consolidate with soft tone before U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Pair undermined
by bullish USD sentiment, disappointing UK May services PMI (edged up to 55.4 in May from
55.3 in April, vs 55.6 expected), concerns over long period of slow UK economic growth as
government fiscal tightening measures weigh. GBP/USD daily chart still positive-biased as
MACD & stochastics bullish, though inside-day-range pattern completed yesterday. Support at
1.4583 (yesterday's low), then at 1.4552 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to
1.4437 (Tuesday's low), then 1.4372 (Monday's low), 1.4329 (May 26 low), 1.4257 (May 25
low) and 1.4230 (14-month low set May 20). Resistance at 1.4680 (hourly chart), then at 1.4743
(yesterday's high) and 1.4769 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.4916 (May
13 high), then 1.4972 (55-day moving average) and 1.5053 (May 10 reaction high).

USD/CHF - to consolidate before U.S. employment data. Pair supported by positive USD
sentiment, short-CHF carry trades on lower risk aversion, fears of more CHF-selling intervention
by SNB as EUR/CHF retreated toward recent record lows (last 1.4070). But USD/CHF topside
limited by expectations for SNB rate hike as early as September, positions adjustment before
weekend. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, stochastics falling from overbought; but 5-day
moving average meandering sideways. Resistance at 1.1573 (yesterday's high), then at 1.1602
(Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1730 (Tuesday's 13-month high), then
1.1740 (April 20, 2009 reaction high) and 1.1965 (March 12, 2009 reaction high). Support at
1.1515 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1467 (Tuesday's low), then 1.1447
(May 21 low), 1.1420 (May 19 low) and 1.1267 (May 18 low).

USD/CAD - to consolidate before U.S. payrolls data and 1100 GMT Canada May employment
report. USD/CAD underpinned by stronger global USD; but gains tempered by firmer
commodity & oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $1.75 yesterday at $74.61/bbl). Other data
focus: 1230 GMT Canada April building permits, 1400 GMT May Ivey PMI. USD/CAD daily
chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, 5-day moving average staged bearish
crossover against 15-day. Support at 1.0359 (yesterday's low); breach would target 1.0333 (100-
day moving average), then 1.0240 (May 18 low, matching 55-day moving average), 1.0105 (May
13 reaction low) and 1.0010 (April 29 reaction low). Resistance at 1.0463 (yesterday's high);
breach would expose upside to 1.0573 (Wednesday's high), then 1.0718 (May 27 high), 1.0746
(May 26 high) and 1.0851 (7-month high set May 25).

EUR/JPY - to consolidate before U.S. jobs report. Cross underpinned by increased investor risk
appetite, Japan political uncertainty. But EUR/JPY gains tempered by lingering worries over
euro-zone debt crisis. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD bullish, stochastics rising from
oversold. Resistance at 114.16 (yesterday's high); breach would target 114.40 (May 21 high),
then 115.49 (May 18 high) and 117.00 (May 14 high). Support at 112.11 (hourly chart); breach
would expose downside to 111.00 (Wednesday's low), then 109.72 (Tuesday's low), 109.19
(May 27 low) and 108.83 (8.5-year low set May 25).

EUR/GBP - to consolidate. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD bearish, while stochastics
stay suppressed at oversold, suggesting sideways or lower EUR/GBP trading near-term. Support
at 0.8278 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.8230 (Nov. 27, 2008 reaction
low), then 0.8195 (previous cap set Oct. 24, 2008), psychological 0.8000 and 0.7807 (Oct. 21,
2008 reaction low). Resistance at 0.8379-0.8384 band (yesterday's high-Wednesday's high);
breach would target 0.8419 (previous base set May 27), then 0.8474 (Tuesday's high), 0.8524
(Monday's high) and 0.8547 (May 28 high).

Disclaimer
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not
consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a
specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the
information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow
Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)