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It was a Cinderall Story when MON, IPO’d @ $10 in late 2000. The offering grabbed a huge attention from investors in the agriculture arena. The company and
stock was doing so well that it ran up to $145 in late June of 2008. The stock and company since then has been hitting new lows after lows and breaking every
support along the way. It’s sad to say during this 1 1/2 year market rally MON had managed to lose hand over fist quarter after quarter and never followed the
markets upward. Let’s put into perspective the low of March of 2009, MON was worth about $88. Today it’s on the verge of yet hitting another 3 year low to $50
which equates to -43%. Talk about an investment gone bad.
The firm’s products are also subject to extensive regulation. Unfavorable rulings or regulations could prohibit or delay the company’s entrance into new markets
and its ability to introduce new products in existing ones. Finally, Monsanto continues to battle public opposition to its transgenic products, especially in
Europe. This could prohibit Monsanto from penetrating new markets.
The agricultural industry is facing increased regulatory scrutiny on all fronts. Whether it be the EPA the DOJ or any other government body, there is a chance
that unfavorable legal actions could leave Monsanto facing higher costs or do harm to its competitive position. While DuPont’s Pioneer seed business has had
some high profile stumbles as of late, this re-energized competitor has been able to gain some ground recently, picking up a few points of share in the U.S. corn
seed market in 2009. Negative public perception continues to plague Monsanto. If the public does not want to eat transgenic food, farmers will not buy the
seeds.
Financial Overview
Growth: Capturing small amounts of incremental market share and increasing penetration of the firm’s premium seeds should allow Monsanto to continue to
compound its top line in the coming years. Profitability: Monsanto has earned a premium on its cost of capital in each of the past three years. We expect that the
firm will continue to post returns on invested capital well in excess of its cost of capital for the foreseeable future.
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6/4/2010 Monsanto Continues to Hit New 3 Year …
Financial Health:
Monsanto has a healthy balance sheet and harvests bushels of cash. Cash from operations has averaged 24% of sales over the past five years, giving the firm
plenty of flexibility to service its financial obligations, invest for growth, and return cash to shareholders. Monsanto currently has $1.2 Billion in cash. Market
Cap of 28.73 Billion, $10.3 Billion in Revenue with a 13% Return on Equity.
Monsanto said Thursday it expects 2010 earnings of $2.15 a share to $2.41 a share. Adjusted 2010 earnings are seen at $2.40 to $2.60 a share, the company said.
Wall Street analysts expected earnings of $3.09 a share, according to a survey by FactSet Research. The St. Louis company cited lower profits in its Roundup
weed killing business, “in the face of fundamental structural changes that have caused upheaval in the glyphosate industry.”
Competitors
EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. DD $35.8; Market Cap of 31,78b, The Dow Chemical Company, DOW $26.52; Market Cap of 30.63b
Analysis
MON still has more room to fall to $32range and be on par with it’s competitors price range. This will follow the 100% retracement point. I’d recommend to steer
clear from Monsanto until all head winds are resolved. Overall I truly believe when inflation does rear it’s ugly head this should be added to your portfolio. I’d
recommend to maintain a short side of this equity. Place a buy order at the $32 range which should hit in the next 6-9 months.
Tags: 100% retracement, 53.45, Buy at $32, dd, DOW, EI DuPont de Nemours & Co., MON, Monsanto, PUT, put options, Seed company, sell Monsanto, short
MON, Short Monsanto, The Dow Chemical Company
T his entry was posted on T hursday, May 27th, 2010 at 5:37 am and is filed under Large Cap Stocks, T echnical Stocks. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0
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