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A Comparisonof ThreeMethodsforSelecting
Values of InputVariablesin the Analysisof Output
froma ComputerCode
M. D. McKay and R. J. Beckman
W. J. Conover
Departmentof Mathematics
Texas Tech University
Lubbock,TX 79409
KEY WORDS
Latin hypercubesampling
Samplingtechniques
Simulationtechniques
Variance reduction
1. INTRODUCTION
239
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240
thesamplemeanwhich
Ifg(Y) = Y thenT represents
is used to estimateE(Y). If g(Y) = yr we obtain the
rth sample moment.By letting
g(Y) = 1 forY < y, 0
otherwise,we obtain the usual empiricaldistribution
functionat the point y. Our interestis centered
around theseparticularstatistics.
Let r denotetheexpectedvalue of T whenthe Ye's
constitutea randomsample fromthedistribution
of
Y = h(X). We show in theAppendixthatbothstratified sampling and Latin hypercubesampling yield
unbiasedestimatorsof r.
If TRis theestimateof r froma randomsampleof
size N, and Ts is theestimatefroma stratified
sample
of size N, thenVar(Ts) < Var(TR)whenthestratified
plan uses equal probabilitystrata with one sample
per stratum(all pi = 1/N and nlj = 1). No direct
means of comparingthe varianceof thecorrespondingestimatorfromLatin hypercubesampling,TL, to
Var(Ts) has been found.However,thefollowingtheorem,provedin the Appendix,relatesthe variances
of TL and TR.
Theorem.If Y = h(X1,.,
XK) is monotonicin
and g(Y) is a monotonicfunceach of its arguments,
tionof Y, thenVar(TL) < Var(TR).
T(Y,,,
YN)= (1/N)
it=l
g(Yi),
whereg( ) = arbitraryfunction.
TECHNOMETRICS
?, VOL.21, NO. 2, MAY1979
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140-0 -
0
I-
V)
L&J
L.a
i=
1, ...,N.
X
=1
(u -,)2
1/(NK(N-
1)K)) y
(A,l M)(uj - A)
(3.2)
whereu = E(Y(t)),
Iji = E(Y(t) I X G Si) in thestratified
sample,or
it = E(Y(t) | X E cell i) in the Latin hypercube
sample,
and R means the restrictedspace of all pairsAu,,j
havingno cell coordinatesin common.
For the SOLA-PLOOP computercode the means
and standard deviations,based on 50 observations,
were computed for the estimatorsjust described.
Comparativeplotsofthemeansaregivenin Figure 1.
All of theplotsof themeansare comparable,demonstratingthe unbiasednessof the estimators.
Comparative plots of the standarddeviationsof
the estimatorsare given in Figure 2. The standard
deviation of Ys(t) is_smallerthan that of YR(t) as
expected.However,YL(t) clearlydemonstratessuperiorityas an estimatorin thisexample,witha standard deviationroughlyone-forththatof therandom
samplingestimator.
..................
STRAT D
..........
LATM
----
100-0 -
80'0 -
Ll
60-0 -
40-0
0-0
5.0
10
t50
TIME
20-0
(4.1)
(4.2)
2-0 -
STRATIED
LAT IIN
I-
1-5-
L&.
0
1-0 -
"\
v)
0-5-
0-0
4.
IRANDOM
Var(Ys(t)) = Var(YR(t))-
120-0 -
(3.1)
i=1
where
Y(t) = h(Xi),
X Yt(t)
241
\
.
~~'~_..
.::....::::>:'.......................
.
/
---..
0.0
Io
5-0
-_
1o
10.0
TIME
15
15-0
I2
20-0
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242
1.0
RAOM
I-.
4c
2
100-0 -
STRATFID
LATIN
4
I-
V)
V)
L,d
LAJ
LL.
LL.
500 -
RANDO
STRATFIED
...............
-----
0-6
0-4
4c
2
0-0
LATIN
I-
L&J
10.0
5-O
0-0
15.0
0-2
20-0
TIME
thevariance:thesamplemeanofSR2(t),
FIGURE 3. Estimating
PRESSURE
Gs(y, t), and GL(Y, t) at t = 1.4.
Var(Gs(y,t)) = Var(GR(y,t))
N
-(1/N2)
G(y,t) = (l/N)
i=1
u(y - Y (t)),
90-0
=-1
Var(GL(y,t)) = Var(GR(y,t))
+((N - 1)/N
(5.1)
80-0
FIGURE 5. Estimating
theCDF: thesamplemeanof GR(, t),
700
1/NK(N- 1)K) C
(Dt'(, t)
(5.2)
As withthecases of themean and varianceestimators,the distributionfunctionestimatorswere compared forthe threesamplingplans. Figures 5 and 6
givethemeansand standarddeviationsoftheestimators at t = 1.4 ms. This time point was chosen to
correspondto the timeof maximumvariancein the
distributionof Y(t). Again the estimatesobtained
froma Latin hypercubesample appear to be more
precise in general than the othertwo typesof estimates.
50.0 -
0
2
I(1
LAJ
0
vi
C)
40-0 -
RANOM
RANDOM
..................
STRATIFIED
STRAT
---------
LATIN
0O
LATIN
30-0 -
I \
I
I
20-0 -
0-10-
ILiJ
\\
LA
005
V/)
10-0 -
'.0 Irl
Ul
0*0
5-0
10-0
TIME
15*0
20-0
0-00
20-0 30-0
40-0
50-0
600
PRESSURE
700
80-0
900
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243
We have presentedthreesamplingplans and associated estimatorsof the mean, the variance,and the
population distributionfunctionof the output of a
computercode whentheinputsare treatedas random
variables. The firstmethod is simple random sampling. The second method involves stratifiedsamplingand improvesupon thefirstmethod.The third
methodis called hereLatin hypercubesampling.It is
an extensionof quota sampling[13], and it is a first
cousin to the "random balance" designdiscussedby
Satterthwaite[12], Budne [2], Youden, et al [15],
factoAnscombe[1], and to the highlyfractionalized
rial designsdiscussedby Enrenfeldand Zacks [5, 6],
Dempster [3, 4], and Zacks [16, 17], and to lattice
sampling as discussed by Jessen [9]. This third
method improves upon simple random sampling
when certain monotonicityconditionshold, and it
appears to be a good method to use for selecting
values of inputvariables.
7. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
In thesectionsthatfollowwe presentsomegeneral
resultsabout stratified
samplingand Latin hypercube
samplingin orderto make comparisonswithsimple
randomsampling.We move fromthegeneralcase of
stratified
samplingto stratified
samplingwithproportional allocation, and then to proportionalallocationswithone observationper stratum.We examine
Latin hypercubesampling for the equal marginal
probabilitystratacase only.
8.1
TypeI Estimators
KNOWNpdf
UNKNOWN butobservable
transformation
ofX.
T(u,,
, UN)=
(1/N) J g(U,),
t-=
(8.1)
whereg(. ) is an arbitrary,
knownfunction.In particular we use g(u) = ur to estimatemoments,and g(u)
= 1 foru > 0, = 0 elsewhere,to estimatethedistribution function.
The samplingschemes describedin the following
sectionswill be comparedto random samplingwith
respectto T. The symbolTR denotesT(Y1, .* , YN)
whenthe argumentsY,, ** , YNconstitutea random
sample of Y. The mean and variance of TR are denoted by T and 02/N. The statisticT givenby (8.1)
will be evaluatedat argumentsarisingfromstratified
samplingto formTs, and at argumentsarisingfrom
Latin hypercubesamplingto formTL. The associated
means and varianceswill be compared to those for
randomsampling.
8.2 StratifiedSampling
Let the rangespace, S, of X be partitionedintoI
disjointsubsetsSi of size pi = P(X e St), with
t=l
pt = 1.
Ts= ?
t=l
nt
(pt/ni)
J=l
g(Yj),
] (p,2/ni)a,2.
t=1
(8.2)
"pt(,t-rT)2. (8.3)
t=1
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244
N
1=1
(8.4)
-)2.
+ E(wilwJw= l)P(w = 1)
all oells q
-= Zcell
h(x) Sy
NKf(X)d
cell q)
E(wfwj) = 0.
Now
Var(w(g(Yl)) = E(W,2) Var g(Y,)
+ E2(g(Y,)) Var(w,)
NK
C Var(wg(Y1))
NK
N-K+1
E(g(Y,)-#,)2
NK
+ (N-K+
A2
1-N-N+2K)
(8.8)
1=1
= NK fcel
I (g(y)-rT)f(x)dx
(.t-- r)2
(8.9)
we have
X Var(wg(Yi)) = N Var(Y) I
N-K+l
(-
i #,2
Tr)2
(8.10)
Furthermore
NK
NK
/=1
J=l
i,6
Cov(wg(rY), wg(rY)) = ?,
uiE{wwiw}
iJ
(8.11)
iAj
N-2K+2CZ
i?i
whichcombineswith(8.10) to give
Var(TL) = (l/N)Var(Y)
- N-K-1
NK
/=1
wfg(Yi),
(8.5)
givenby
- N-2K)
+ (N-
I)-K+lNK -'X
NK
-N- 2KF
NK NK
?c Cov(wtg(Yy),wg(Y,)).
i=1 J=1
Jfi
(8.6)
+ (N-K
+ (1/N2)
(8.7)
so that
+ (N-K+l-N-2K+2)
h(X)<y
TL = (1/N)
1))K--1
(l/NK)
f(x)dx.
= 1/(N(N-
tij
Mi,I
(i
T)2
#,2
Mi
(8.12)
TECHNOMETRICS
?, VOL.21, NO. 2, MAY1979
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equation
UsingHoeffding's
Cov(X,Y) =
*
R
)-K
(i-rT)(Lj-r)
< 0,
(8.14)
Rlk
(8.13)
(i-T)(j-Tr)].
245
each argumentunder the assumptionsof the theorem. Lehmann's theoremthenyields thatAl and g2
are negativelyquadrantdependent.Therefore,
P(,l < x, ,2 < y) < P(jU < X)P(,
< y).
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