Special Probability Distributions

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions
CHAPTER 2 : SPECIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Sub-Topic
Introduction
The binomial distribution.
The Poisson distribution.
Poisson approximation to binomial distribution.
The normal distribution.
Normal approximation to binomial distribution.
Chapter Learning Outcome
Identify and solve the problems of probability using binomial, Poisson, and
normal distribution.
Learning Objective
By the end of this chapter, students should be able to
State the probability distribution whether it is binomial, Poisson or normal
distribution.
Find the probability by applying the formula for each distribution in problem
solving.
Find the probability by using the probability table for each distribution to
solve the problem.
Apply Poisson and normal approximation to binomial distribution.
Key Term (English to Bahasa Melayu)
English
Bahasa Melayu
1. Approximation
Penghampiran
2. Binomial distribution
Taburan binomial
3. Success
Kejayaan
4. Failure
Kegagalan
5. Poisson distribution
Taburan Poisson
6. Normal distribution
Taburan normal
7. Standard normal distribution
Taburan normal piawai
8. Z score
Skor Z
9. Continuity correction
Pembetulan keselanjaran
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2.1 Introduction
In previous chapter, we have defined discrete and continuous random variables and
have introduced discrete probability distributions. In this chapter, we present two
important discrete distribution, which is the binomial and Poisson distributions.
Furthermore, we will discuss the general idea of a continuous probability distribution
and normal distribution.
2.2 The Binomial Distribution
Perhaps the most widely known of all discrete distributions is the binomial
distribution. The binomial distribution has been used for hundreds of years. In this
section, we will discuss the most important discrete probability with the situation
such as below.
Situation 1
Suppose that historical sales records indicate that 40 percent of all customers who
enter a discount department store make a purchase. What is the probability that two
of the next three customers will make a purchase?
In order to find this probability, first we note that the experiment of observing three
customers making a purchase decision has several distinguishing characteristics,
which is
The experiment consists of a sequence of three identical trials, where each
trial consists of a customer making a purchase decision.
Two outcomes are possible on each trial where the customer makes a purchase
(we call it success) or the customer does not make a purchase (we call it
failure).
Since 40 percent of all customers make a purchase, it is reasonable to assume
that PS , the probability that a customer makes a purchase, is 0.4 and it
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constant for all customers. Otherwise P F is the probability that a customer

does not make a purchase which is 0.6 and it constant for all customers.
We assume the customers make independent purchase decisions. Beside, we
assume that the outcomes of the three trials are independent of each other.
From the explanation above, we know that the sample space of the experiment
consists eight sample space outcomes which is
S SSS , SSF , SFS , FSS , FFS , FSF , SFF , FFF .
The sample space outcome SSS represents all three customers making purchases. It
means that FFS represent the first customer not making a purchase, the second
customer also not making a purchase and the third customer making a purchase.
Furthermore, since the trials (purchase decision) are independent, we can simply
multiply the probabilities associated with the different trial outcomes to find the
probability of a sequence of outcomes. Therefore,
P SSF P S P S P F 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.096
P SFS P S P F P S 0.4 0.60.4 0.096
P FSS P F P S P S 0.60.4 0.4 0.096
It follows that the probability that two out of the next three customers make a
purchase is
P SSF P SFS P FSS 0.096 0.096 0.096
0.288
With this, we can find the probability of the next n customers who will make a
purchase. Here, we assume that p is the probability that a customer makes a
purchase, while q (1 p) is the probability that a customer does not make a
purchase and we assume that the purchase decisions are independent. Therefore, the
probability that two of the next three customers make a purchase is
The number of ways
2 32
to arrange 2 successes p q
among 3 trials
57
In general, each of the sample space outcomes describing the occurrence of x

successes (purchases) in n trials represents a different arrangement of x successes in
n trials. However, each of these sample space outcomes consists of x successes and
n x failures. The probability of each sample space outcome is p x q n x . It follows
with the probability that x of the next n trials are successes (purchases) is
The number of ways
x n x
to arrange 2 successes p q
among 3 trials
It means, the binomial random variable, X is the number of success in n trials, that is
0, 1, 2, ..., n. . The probability distribution of X is called a binomial distribution (or
binomial probability distribution) with X ~ Bn, p .
Definition 1
A Bernoulli trial can result in a success with probability p and a failure with
probability, q (1 p) . Then, the probability distribution of X is called a binomial
distribution (or binomial probability distribution) with the number of success in n
independent trial is written as X ~ Bn, p .
Theory 1
Several assumptions underlie the use of the binomial distributions are
The experiment involves n identical trials.
Each trial has only two possible outcomes denoted as success or as failure.
Each trial is independent of the previous trials.
The terms p and q remain constant throughout the experiment, where the
term p is the probability of getting a success on any one trial and the term
q (1 p) is the probability of getting a failure on any one trial.
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Theory 2
Binomial formula
P X x
n!
p x q n x n C x p x q n x
x ! n x !
where
p = probability of success in a single trial
q = 1 p , probability of failure in a single trial
n = number of trials
x = number of success in n trials, so x can be any number between 0 and n
(inclusive)
with X ~ B n, p
Example 1
Consider the discount department store in the situation 1 which is Suppose that
historical sales records indicate that 40 percent of all customers who enter a discount
department store make a purchase. Find the probability that three of the next five
customers will make purchases.
Answer Example 1
Here we know that, p 0.4 , q 0.6 and n 5 .
Px 3 5 C3 0.4 0.6
3
53
100.064 0.36
0.2304
Example 2
A coin is tossed three times. Find the probability of getting exactly
(a)
no head.
(b)
one head.
(c)
two heads.
(d)
three heads.
59
Answer Example 2
In this case, n 3 p 0.5 and q 0.5 . Substitute in the formula, then
(a)
Px 0 3 C0 0.5 0.5
0
110.5
0.125
(b)
Px 1 3 C1 0.5 0.5
31
30.50.25
0.375
(c)
Px 2 3 C2 0.5 0.5
32
30.250.5
0.375
(d)
Px 3 3 C3 0.5 0.5
3
33
10.5 1
3
0.125
Theory 3
The usual inequalities that we will use in Binomial are
Name
Symbol
Greater than
>
Less than
<
At least
At most
Not more than
Not less than
60
Example 3
A survey from the Teenage Research in UTHM found that 30% of teenage consumers
received their spending money from part-time jobs. If five teenagers are selected at
random, find the probability that
(a)
none has a part-time job.
(b)
exactly two have part time jobs.
(c)
not more than three of them will have part-time jobs.
(d)
greater than three will have part-time jobs.
(e)
at least three of them will have part-time jobs.
Answer Example 3
(a)
Px 0 5 C0 0.3 0.7
0
50
1 1 0.1681
0.1681
(b)
Px 2 5 C2 0.3 0.7
52
10 0.09 0.343
0.3087
(c)
Px 3 P( x 0) P( x 1) P( x 2) P( x 3)
0.1681 5 C1 0.31 0.7 51 0.3087 0.1323
0.1681 0.3602 0.3087 0.1323

0.9693
(d)
P x 3 P ( x 4) P ( x 5)
5 C4 0.3 0.7
4
54
5 C5 0.3 0.7
5
0.0284 0.0024
0.0308
61
55
(e)
P x 3 P ( x 3) P ( x 4) P ( x 5)
5 C3 0.3 0.7
3
53
0.0284 0.0024
0.1323 0.0284 0.0024

0.1631
Theory 4
Although the binomial distribution is easily evaluated by calculators, sometimes it is
more suitable to use binomial probability table especially when the trials more
than ten.
Example 4
Solve the problem in Example 3(e) by using binomial probability table.
Answer Example 4
From Example 3(e) : at least three of them will have part-time jobs.
We know that n 5 , p 0.3 and q 0.7 .
Then, to find the probability, P x 3 from the table statistics (J. Murdoch) below:
The value of 0.1631 is the answer, then P x 3 0.1631 .
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Theory 5
Some ideas in finding the value of probability by using table such as below.
(a)
P( X k ) from table
(b)
P ( X k ) 1 P( X k )
(c)
P( X k ) 1 P( X k 1)
(d)
P( X k ) P( X k 1)
(e)
P( X k ) P( X k ) P( X k 1)
(f)
P(k X l ) P( X k ) P( X l 1)
(g)
P(k X l ) P( X k 1) P( X l )
(h)
P( k X l ) P( X k ) P( X l )
(i)
P(k X l ) P( X k 1) P( X l 1)
Example 5
Given that X ~ B 5, 0.5 , by using binomial probability table, find
(a)
P( X 5) .
(b)
P( X 2) .
(c)
P( X 3) .
(d)
P( X 1) .
(e)
P( X 2) .
(f)
P(2 X 4) .
(g)
P(1 X 4) .
(h)
P(1 X 3) .
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(i)
P(1 X 3) .
Answer Example 5
(a)
P( X 5) 0.0313
(b)
P( X 2) 1 P( X 3)
1 0.5000
0.5000
(c)
P( X 3) P( X 4)
0.1875
(d)
P( X 1) 1 P( X 1)
0.0312
(e)
P( X 2) P( X 2) P( X 3)
0.8125 0.5000
0.3125
(f)
P(2 X 4) P( X 2) P( X 5)
0.8125 0.0313
0.7812
(g)
P(1 X 4) P( X 2) P( X 4)
0.8125 0.1875
0.6250
(h)
P(1 X 3) P( X 2) P( X 4)
0.8125 0.1875
0.6250
(i)
P(1 X 3) P( X 1) P( X 3)
0.9688 0.5000
0.4688
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Example 6
Public Opinion reported that 5% of Malaysians are afraid of being alone in a house at
night. If a random sample of 20 Malaysian is selected, find these probabilities by
using the binomial table.
(a)
There are exactly five people in the sample who are afraid of being alone at
night.
(b)
There are at most three people in the sample who are afraid being alone at
night.
(c)
There are at least three people in the sample who are afraid being alone at
night.
Answer Example 6
Since 20 people are selected at random, then n 20 . Let probability of success (afraid
of being alone in the night), p 0.05 . Therefore, the Binomial random variable,
X ~ B 20, 0.05
(a)
P X 5 P X 5 P X 6
0.0026 0.0003
0.0023
(b)
P X 3 1 P X 4
1 0.0159
0.9841
(c)
P X 3 0.0755
Example 7
Assume that when a certain hunter shoots at a bird from five, the probability of hitting
it is 0.6. Find the probability that the hunter
(a)
will hit at least four birds.
(b)
will hit at least one bird.
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Answer Example 7
Since then hunter shoots at a bird from five, then n 5 , p 0.6 and q 0.4 .
Therefore, the binomial random variable, X can be written as X ~ B 5, 0.6 .
(a)
P( X 4) P( X 4) P( X 5)
5 C4 (0.6) 4 (0.4)1 5 C5 (0.6) 5 (0.4) 0

0.2592 0.0778
0.3370
(b)
P( X 1) 1 P( X 1)
1 P( X 0)
1 5C0 (0.6) 0 (0.4) 5

1 0.0102
0.9898
Because of the limited value of p (just until p 0.5 ) in binomial probability table,
so we need to use q 0.4 as the alternative value of p .
(a)
P hit at least four birds 1 P (doesn' t hit at least two birds )
1 P( X 2)
1 0.6630
0.3370
**Note : We assume that p 0.4 .
(b)
P hit at least one bird 1 P (doesn' t hit at least five birds )
1 P( X 5)
1 0.0102
0.9898
**Note : We assume that p 0.4 .
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Theory 6
The mean and variance of the binomial distribution X ~ B(n, p) with n trials and
probability of success, p are
Mean, np
Variance, 2 npq
** Note : We know that q (1 p)
Example 8
A coin is tossed four times. Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the
number of heads that will be obtained.
Answer Example 8
Use the formula for the binomial distribution with n 4 , p 0.5 and , q 0.5 .
The value of mean, variance and standard deviation are such as below.
Mean, np 4 0.5 2
Variance, 2 npq 4 0.5 0.5 1
Standard deviation, npq 1 1
Example 9
A general hospital recorded that 75% of the cancer patients are died after the
chemotherapy treatment. Assume that the distribution of the cancer patients who died
after the chemotherapy treatment is binomially distributed. If five patients are
selected randomly, find the probability that
(a)
all of them are died.
(b)
only two of the patients are recovered.
Answer Example 9
(a)
Let X = no of cancer patients who died after the chemotherapy
n 5 , p 0.75 , q 0.25
67
P( X 5)5C5 (0.75) 5 (0.25) 0

0.2373
(b)
Only two recovered, so three are died.
P( X 3) 5C3 (0.75) 3 (0.25) 2

0.2637
Example 10
The probability that a man is late in a day for work is 0.1. Assume that each day is
independent of each other. Find the probability that he will be late for work on at least
three days during five days.
Answer Example 10
Let X be the number of days in a week in which he is late, then X ~ B 5, 0.4 .
P(at least three days he is late) P X 3 0.3174 or
5
5
5
P X 3 (0.4) 3 (0.6) 2 (0.4) 4 (0.6)1 (0.4) 5 (0.6) 0
3
4
5
0.3174
Exercise 2.2
1.
Let X be a binomial random variable with X ~ B 10, 0.1 . Calculate the

following probabilities.
(a)
P X 2 .
(b)
P X 8 .
(c)
P X 4 .
(d)
P 5 X 7 .
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2.
3.
Evaluate these binomial probabilities.

(a)
C2 0.3 0.7 .
(b)
C0 0.05 0.95 .
(c)
10
C3 0.5 0.5 .
3
Let X be a binomial random variable with n 7 and p 0.3 . Find the value
of
4.
(a)
P x 4 .
(b)
P x 1 .
(c)
P x 1 .
(d)
mean.
(e)
variance.
The phone lines to an airline reservation system are occupied 40% of the time.
Assume that the events that the lines are occupied on successive calls are
independent. Assume that ten calls are placed to the airline.
(a)
What is the probability that for exactly three calls the lines are
occupied ?
(b)
What is the probability that for at least one call the lines are not
occupied ?
(c)
What is the expected number of calls in which the lines are all
occupied ?
5.
A particularly long traffic light on your morning commute is green 20% of the
time that you approach it. Assume that each morning represents an
independent trial.
(a)
Over five mornings, what is the probability that the light is green on
exactly one day ?
(b)
Over 20 mornings, what is the probability that the light is green on
69
exactly four days ?

(c)
Over 20 mornings, what is the probability that the light is green on

more than four days ?
6.
The TV10 television shows 60 minutes has been successful for many years.
That show recently had a share of 20, meaning that among the TV sets in use,
20% were tuned to 60 minutes (based on data from Aryssa Media Research).
Assume that an advertiser wants to verify that 20% share value by conducting
its own survey, and a pilot survey begins with 10 households having TV sets
in use at the time of a 60 minutes broadcast.
(a)
Find the probability that none of the households are tuned to 60

minutes.
7.
(b)
Find the probability that at least one household is tuned to 60 minutes.
(c)
Find the probability that at most one household is tuned to 60 minutes.
An experiment involving a gender-selection method includes a control group

of 15 couples who are not given any treatment intended to influence the
genders of their babies. Each of the 15 couples has one child.
(a)
Find the mean and standard deviation for the numbers of girls in such
groups of 15.
(b)
If the couples have 10 girls and 5 boys, is that unusual? Why or why
not?
8.
The Haniss Department Store has experienced a 3.2% rate of customer

complaints and attempts to lower this rate with an employee training program.
After the program, 850 customers are tracked and it is found that only 7 of
them filed complaints.
(a)
Assuming that the training program has no effect, find the mean and
standard deviation for the number of complaints in such groups of 850
customers.
70
(b)
Based on the results from part (a), is the result of seven complaints
unusual? Does it seem that the training program was effective in
lowering the rate of complaints?
9.
In a study of 420,000 cell phone users in Johor, it is found that 135 developed
cancer of the brain or nervous system. If we assume that such cancer is not
affected by cell phones, the probability of a person having such a cancer is
0.000340.
(a)
Assuming that cell phones have no effect on cancer, find the mean and
standard deviation for the numbers of people in groups of 420,000 that
can be expected to have cancer of the brain or nervous system.
(b)
Based on the results from part (a), is it unusual to find that among
420,000 people, there are 135 cases of cancer of the brain or nervous
system? Why?
10.
A recent Gallup poll consisted of 1012 randomly selected adults who were
asked whether cloning of humans should or should not be allowed. Results
showed that 89% of those surveyed indicated that cloning should not be
allowed.
(a)
Among the 1012 adults surveyed, how many said that cloning should
not be allowed?
(b)
If we assume that people are indifferent so that 50% believed that

cloning of humans should not be allowed, find the mean and standard
deviation for the numbers of people in groups of 1012 that can be
expected to believe that such cloning should not be allowed.
11.
A regimen consisting of a daily dose of vitamin C was tested to determine its

effectiveness in preventing the common cold. Ten people who are were
following the prescribed regimen were observed for a period of 1 year. Eight
survived the winter without a cold. Suppose the probability of surviving the
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winter without a cold is 0.5 when the vitamin C regimen is not followed. What
is the probability of observing eight or more survivors, given that the regimen
is ineffective in increasing resistance to colds?
12.
A home security system is designed to have a 99% reliability rate. Suppose

that nine homes equipped with this system experience an attempted burglary.
Find the probabilities of these events:
13.
(a)
at least one of the alarms is triggered.
(b)
More than seven of the alarms are triggered.
(c)
Eight or fewer alarms are triggered.
Car color preferences change over the years and according to the particular
model that the customer selects. In a recent year, suppose that 10% of all
luxury cars are randomly selected. Let the sample of luxury cars are 20. Find
the following probabilities:
14.
(a)
at least five cars are black.
(b)
At most six cars are black.
(c)
Between three and five cars (inclusive) are black.
Records shows that 30% of all patients admitted to a medical clinic fail to pay
their bills and that eventually the bills are forgiven. Suppose n = 4 new
patients represent a random selection from the large set of prospective patients
served by the clinic. Find these probabilities:
15.
(a)
all the patients bills will eventually have to be forgiven.
(b)
One will have to be forgiven.
(c)
None will have to be forgiven.
The taste test for PTC (phenylthiocarbamide) is a favorite exercise for every
human genetics class. It has been established that a single gene determines the
characteristic, and that 70% of Malaysian are tasters, while 30% are
72
nontasters. Suppose that 20 Malaysian are randomly chosen and are tested
for PTC.
(a)
What is the probability that 17 or more are tasters?
(b)
What is the probability that 15 or fewer are tasters?
Answer Exercise 2.2

1.
(a)
0.9298 (b)
(c)
2.
(a)
0.2965
(b)
0.8145
(c)
0.1172
3.
(a)
0.097
(b)
0.329
(c)
0.671
(e)
1.212
4.
(a)
0.215
(b)
0.999
(c) 4
5.
(a)
0.410
(b)
0.218
(c) 0.37
6.
(a)
0.107
(b)
0.893
(c) 0.375
7.
(a)
7.5 , 1.9
(b)
0.0112 (d)
0.0016
(d)
2.1
No. Because 10 is within 2 std dev of the
mean and its showing that it is easy to get 10 or more girls by chance.
8.
(a)
27.2 5.1
(b)
Yes,
it
appears
that
the
training
(b)
No, 135 is not unusual because it is
programmed had an effect.

9.
(a)
142.8 11.9
within 2 standard deviation of the mean.

901
(b)
506 15.9
(a)
(b)
0.997
13.
(a)
0.0432
(b)
14.
(a)
0.0081 (b)
0.4116 (c)
15.
(a)
0.107
(b)
10.
(a)
11.
0.055
12.
(c)
0.9976
(c)
0.2401
0.762
73
0.086
0.3118
2.3 The Poisson distribution
Another discrete random variable that has numerous practical applications is the
Poisson random variable. Its probability distribution provides a good model for data
that represent the number of occurrences of a specified event in a given unit of
time or space. Here are some examples of experiments for which the random
variable x can be modeled by the Poisson random variable.
The number of calls received by a switchboard during a given period of time.
The number of bacteria per small volume of fluid.
The number of customer arrivals at a checkout during a given minute.
The number of machine breakdowns during a given day.
The number of traffic accidents at a given intersection during a given time
period.
In each example above, X represents the number of events that occur in a period time
or space during with an average of mean such events can be expected to occur.
Definition 2
The probability distribution of X is called a Poisson distribution and the distribution is
write as X ~ P .
O
Theory 7
Some properties of Poisson distribution that we must know are
The experiment consists of counting the number X of times for a particular
event occurs during a given unit of time, or in a given area or volume (or
weight, distance, or any other unit of measurement).
The probability that an event occurs in a given unit of time, area, or volume is
the same for all the units.
The number of event is independent.
The Poisson random variable is the number of success event.
74
Theory 8
Formula of Poisson distribution is
P X x
e x
x!
x 0, 1, 2, ...,
where
mean or average number of event

x number of success event
with X ~ P
O
The symbol e 2.71828 is evaluated using our scientific calculator, which should
have function e x . For each value of X, we can obtain the individual probabilities for
the Poisson random variable, just like binomial random variable. Otherwise, we can
use cumulative Poisson table. The way how to find the values are similar with
Binomial random variable. It is important to use consistent units in the calculation of
probabilities, means and variances involve Poisson random variables. The following
example illustrates unit conversions. For example, if the
Average number of flaws per millimeter of wire is 3.4.
Average number of flaws in 10 millimeters of wire is 34.
Average number of flaws in 100 millimeter of wire is 340.
If a Poisson random variable represents the number of events in some interval, the
mean of the random variable must equal to the expected number of events in the same
length of interval.
Example 11
In the case of the thin copper wire, suppose that the number of flaws follows a
Poisson distribution with a mean of 2.3 flaws per millimeter. Find the probability
(a)
exactly two flaws in one millimeter of wire.
(b)
ten flaws in five millimeter of wire.
(c)
at least one flaws in two millimeters of wire.
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Answer Example 11
Let X denote the number of flaws in 1 millimeter of wire. Then X ~ Po 2.3 flaws
e 2.3 2.32
0.2650
2!
(a)
P X 2
(b)
Since 1 millimeter = 2.3, so for 5 millimeter, the new average is
5 mm 2.3 flaws/mm 11.5 flaws , then, X ~ Po 11.5 .

P X 10
(c)
e 11.5 11.510
0.1130
10 !
Since 1 millimeter = 2.3, so for 2 millimeter, the new average is
2 mm 2.3 flaws/mm 4.6 flaws , then X ~ Po 4.6 .

e 4.6 4.60
P X 1 1 P X 0 1
0.9899
0!
Theory 9
Sometimes we use Poisson table or Poisson probability table regarding the value of
success event small or large. We will use the same ideas as in Binomial distribution.
Example 12
Given a Poisson random variable with X ~ Po 4 . Find the value of P X 3 .
Answer Example 12
From the statistical table (J. Murdoch), we know that P X 3 0.7619
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Theory 10
The formula mean, variance and standard deviation of the Poisson random variable X
are
Mean,
Variance, 2
Standard deviation,
**Note : If the variance of count data is much greater than the mean of the
same data, the Poisson distribution is not a good model of the distribution for
the random variable.
Example 13
The number of incorrectly dialed numbers made per hour by a new telephone
operator has a Poisson distribution. The probability she dials all the number correctly
is 0.90. Find the mean number of incorrectly dialed number per hour.
Answer Example 13
Let X be the number of incorrectly dialed numbers. Then, we have X ~ Po , with
as the mean incorrectly dialed number.
The probability that the telephone sales representative dials all the numbers correctly
is 0.90. That means she got no incorrectly dialed number is
P X 0 0.90
P X 0
e 0
0.90
0!
e 0.90
ln 0.90
0.1054
Therefore, the mean number of incorrectly dialed numbers per hour is 0.1054.
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Exercise 2.3
1.
Which of the following are qualifying for the application of the Poisson
probability distribution?
(a) The number of customers coming to a grocery store during a one-hour
interval.
(b) The arrival of commercial airplanes at Senai Airport.
(c) The number of television sets sold at a department store during a given
week.
(d) The arrival of patients at a physicians office.
(e) The number of defective items in the next 100 items manufactured on a
machine.
(f) The number of defects in a five-meter-long ion rod.
2.
Suppose X has a Poisson distribution with a mean of 4. Determine the

following probabilities:
(a) P X 0
3.
(b) P X 2
(c) P X 4
(d) P X 8
Suppose that the number of customers that enter a bank in an hour is a Poisson
random variable, and suppose that P X 0 0.05 . Determine the mean and
variance of X.
4.
Astronomers treat the number of stars given volume of space as Poisson

random variable. The density in the Mickey Way Galaxy in the vicinity of our
solar system is one star per 16 cubic light years.
(a)
What is the probability of two or more stars in 16 cubic light years?
(b)
What many cubic light years of space must be studied so that the
probability of one or more stars exceeds 0.95?
5.
When a computer disk manufacturer tests a disk, it writes to the disk and then
tests it using a certifier. The certifier counts the number of missing pulses or
78
errors. The number of errors on a test area on a disk has a Poisson distribution
with 0.2 .
6.
(a)
What is the expected number of errors per test area?
(b)
What percentage of test areas has two or fewer errors?
If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a 500-page

manuscript, find the probability that a given page contains exactly three
errors.
7.
A sales firm receives, on the average three calls per hour on its toll-free
number. For any given hour, find the probability that it will receive the
following:
(a)
8.
at most three calls
(b) at least three calls (c)
five or more calls
A recent study of robberies for a certain geographic region showed an average

of one robbery per 20,000 people. In a city of 80,000 people, find the
probability of the following
(a) No robberies
9.
(b) One robberies
(c) Three or more robberies
If approximately 2% of the people in a room of 200 people are left-handed,

find the probability that exactly five people there are left-handed.
10.
If 3% of all cars fail the emissions inspection, find the probability that in a
sample of 90 cars, at least 4 will fail.
11.
The average number of traffic accidents on a certain section of highway is two

per week. Assume that the number of accidents follows a Poisson distribution
with 2 .
(a)
Find the probability of no accidents on this section of highway during

a 1-week period.
(b)
Find the probability of at most three accidents on this section of
79
highway during a 2-week period.
12.
Parents who are concerned that their children are children prone can be
reassured, according to a study conducted by the Department of Pediatric at
the University of Malaysia. Children who are injuries two or more times tend
to sustain these injuries during a relatively limited time, usually 1 year or less.
If the average number of injuries per year for school-age children is two, what
are the probabilities of these events?
13.
(a)
A child will sustain two injuries during the year.
(b)
A child will sustain two or more injuries during the year.
In a food processing and packaging plant, there are, on the average, two
packaging machine breakdowns per week. Assume the weekly machine
breakdowns follow a Poisson distribution.
(a)
What is the probability that there are no machine breakdowns in a

given week?
(b)
Calculate the probability that there are no more than two machine
breakdowns in a given week.
14.
In average, 3 electric bulbs manufactured by a company are defective. Find

the probability that in a sample bulbs have
(a) None is defective (b) three are defective
15.
According to the research of some lecturers at UTHM, the average number of

accidental drowning per year in Parit Raja is 6. Find the probability there will
be
(a)
between 4 and 8 accidental drowings per year.
(b)
Fewer than 3 accidental drawings per year.
80
Answer Exercise 2.3

1.
(a) yes
(b) no
(c) yes
2.
(a) 0.183
3.
E X Var X 2.996
4.
(a) 0.264
(b) 48
5.
(a) 0.2
(b) 99.89%
6.
0.0072
7.
(a) 0.6472
(b) 0.5768
(c) 0.1848
8.
(a) 0.0183
(b) 0.0733
(c) 0.7619
9.
0.1563
10.
0.2859
11.
(a) 0.135335
12.
(a) 0.2706
13.
(a) 0.135335
(b) 0.676676
14.
(a) 0.04979
(b) 0.1494
15.
(a) 0.4589
(b) 0.062
(b) 0.2381
(d) no
(e) yes
(c) 0.1954
(f) yes
(d) 0.0298
(b) 0.433471
(b) 0.405
2.4 Poisson Approximation to Binomial Distribution
The Poisson probability distribution provides a simple, easy to calculate and accurate
approximation to Binomial probabilities when n is large and p is small, preferable
with, n 30 , p tend to 0 p 0.1 . That is mean binomial distribution can be
approximated to Poisson distribution where np .
Definition 3
If random variable X is binomially distributed with its parameter n and p and fulfill
the condition n is large ( n 30 ) and p 0.1 , then the binomial distribution can be
approximated to Poisson distribution with np , X ~ Bn, p X ~ Po .
81
Example 14
Suppose a life insurance company insures the lives of 5000 men aged 42. If actuarial
studies show the probability that any 42-year-old man will die in a given year to be
0.001, find the exact probability that the company will have to pay x 4 claims
during a given year.
Answer Example 15
The exact probability is given by the binomial distribution as
Px 4 5000 C4 0.0014 0.999 4996 0.1755
By the way, Poisson distribution can be used to provide a good approximation

to P x 4 . Compute, np 5000 0.001 5 and substitute into the formula for
the Poisson probability distribution, we have
e 5 5 4
Px 4
0.17546
4!
The value of P x 4 could also be obtained by using Poisson probability table with
5.
Example 16
A manufacturer of power lawn mowers buys 1-horsepower, two-cycle engines in lot
of 1000 from a supplier. She then equips each of the mowers produced by her plant
with one of the engines. History shows that the probability of any one engine from
that supplier proving unsatisfactory is 0.001. In a shipment of 1000 engines, what is
the probability that none is defective ?
Answer Example 16
This is a binomial distribution with X ~ B 1000 ,0.001 .
Since n is large and np 1 the probability of x defective engines in the
e 1 10
0.3678
shipment may be approximated by X ~ Po 1 . Therefore P x 0
0!
82
Example 17
On average, the number of prepaid card was sold at the telecommunication shop is 8
cards per hour. Assume that the number of prepaid card was sold at the shop is
approximated by a Poisson distribution, what is the probability that
(a)
there are seven cards are sold in an hour.
(b)
more than three cards are sold in 15 minutes.
Answer Example 17
(a)
Let X = no of prepaid cards sold per hour.

P ( X 7)
(b)
e 8 87
0.1396
7!
60 min 8 cards
15 min 2 cards
X ~ P0 (2) , P( X 3) P( X 4) 0.1428
Example 18
Diabetes is a chronic health condition where the body is unable to produce insulin.
Medical Science Center report that the probability of a patient who suffer from
diabetes will lead to blindness is 0.002. Assume that the distribution of the diabetic
patients that will lead to blindness is binomial distributed. If 2000 patients diagnosed
with diabetes are selected at random and examined, find the probability that
(a)
fewer than three of the 2000 patients diagnosed will lead to blindness.
(b)
exactly seven of the 2000 patients diagnosed will lead to blindness.
Answer Example 18
(a)
Let, X = no of patients who suffer from diabetes that will lead to blindness.
np 2000 (0.002) 4
P( X 3) P(0) P(1) P(2) 0.0183 0.0733 0.1465
= 0.2381
(b)
Let, X = no of patients who suffer from diabetes that will lead to blindness.
83
e 4 47
P ( X 7)
0.0595
7!
Exercise 2.4
1.
A bag contains 1 red and 7 white marbles. A marbles is drawn from the bag
and its color is observed. Then the marble is put back into the bag and the
contents are thoroughly mixed. By using the Poisson approximation to the
binomial distribution, find the probability that in 8 such drawing a red ball is
selected exactly 3 times.
2.
Ten percent of the tools produced in a certain manufacturing process turn out
to be defective. Find the probability that in the sample of 10 tools chosen at
random exactly two will be defective.
3.
If the probability that an individual suffers a bad reaction from injection of a

given serum is 0.001, determine the probability that out of 2000 individuals
(a) exactly 3
4.
(b) more than 2 individuals will suffer a bad reaction.
Suppose a life insurance company insures the lives of 5000 men aged 42. If
actuarial studies show the probability that any 42-year-old man will die in a
given year to be 0.001, find the exact probability that the company will have
to pay 4 claims during a given year.
5.
A manufacturer of power lawn mowers buys 1-hosepower, two-cycle engines

in lots of 1000 from a supplier. She then equips each of the mowers produced
by her plant with one of the engines. History shows that the probability of any
one engine from that supplier proving unsatisfactory is 0.001. In a shipment of
1000 engines, what is the probability that none is defective?
6.
Evidence shows that the probability that a driver will be involved in a serious
automobile accident during a given year is 0.01. A particular corporation
84
employs 100 full-time traveling sales reps. Based on this evidence, use the
Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution to find the probability that
exactly two of the sales reps will be involved in a serious automobile accident
during the coming year.
7.
Suppose that 1000 vaccinations are to be administered by a medical team from

the local health department. The probability of an allergic reaction is 0.001. A
bad reaction can be counteracted with drugs. What is the probability that there
will be at most 4 bad reactions if 1000 shots are given?
8.
It has been reported that a medicine called Norvasc, used in treating

hypertension and angina, has a discontinuation rate of 1.5%, and it will
discontinued when the patients exhibit adverse effects.
(a)
If a cardiologist prescribes this medicine to 100 patients, what is the

probability that more than 5 will suffer adverse effects?
(b)
What is the probability no more than 3 will suffer adverse effects if

there is 100 patients were given this medicine?
(c)
9.
Find the standard deviation of this distribution.
If 3% of the electric bulbs manufactured by a company are defective, find the

probability that in the sample of 100 bulbs have at most 4 bulbs will be
defective.
10.
Haneffs Imprint buys T-shirts (to be imprinted with an item of the customers
choice) from manufacturers who are guarantees that the shirts have been
inspected and that no more than 1% are imperfect in any way. The shirts
arrive in boxes of 12. Find the probability that:
(a)
any one box has no imperfect shirts?
(b)
Any box has no more than one imperfect shirt?
85
11.
Consider 8 packs of 60 watt bulbs and let x be the number of bulbs in a pack
that fail the first time they are used. If 0.02 of all bulbs of this type fail on
their first use and each 8-pack is consider a random sample, what is the
probability (a) that any one 8-pack has no bulbs that fail on first use?
(b)
12.
That any one 8-pack has no more than one bulb that fails on first use?
According to a recent article, one in four college students are aged 30 or older.
Many of these students are women updating their job skills. Assume that the
2.5% figure is accurate, and the sample size they are select are 200 students.
Recording x, is the number of students age 30 or older, what is the mean and
standard deviation of x?
13.
The 10-year survival rate for bladder cancer is approximately 5%. If 200
people who have bladder cancer are properly treated for the disease, what is
the probability that:
14.
(a)
no one will survive for 10 years?
(b)
At least 1 will survive for 10 years?
Despite reports that dark chocolate is beneficial to the heart, 7% of adults

stills prefer milk chocolate to dark chocolate. Suppose a random sample of
100 adults is selected and asked whether they prefer milk chocolate to dark
chocolate.
(a)
What is the probability that five adults say that they prefer milk
chocolate to dark chocolate?
(b)
What is the exactly three adults say that they prefer milk chocolate to
dark chocolate?
15.
The president of a company specializing in public opinion claims that 5% of

all people to whom agency send questionnaires respond by filling out and
returning the questionnaires. 80 such questionnaires are sent out, and assume
86
that the presidents claim is correct. What is the probability that exactly ten of
the questionnaires are filled out and returned?
Answer Exercise 2.4

1.
0.06131
2.
0.1937
3.
(a) 0.1804
4.
0.175
5.
0.368
6.
0.1839
7.
0.9963
8.
(a)
9.
0.81539
10.
(a)
0.8869 (b)
0.9933
11.
(a)
0.8521 (b)
0.9884
12.
5 2.2079
13.
(a)
0.0000454
(b)
14.
(a)
0.1277 (b)
0.05213
15.
0.00529
(b) 0.6767
0.0046 (b)
0.9342 (c)
1.224
0.9999
2.5 The normal distribution
Random variables can be either discrete or continuous. Recall that a discrete random
variable cannot assume all values between any two given values of the variables. On
the other hand, a continuous variable can assume all values between any two given
values of the variable. Undoubtedly, the most widely used model for the distribution
of a random variable is a normal distribution. Whenever a random experiment is
replicated, the random variable that equals the average (or total) result over the
replicates tends to have a normal distribution as the number of replicates becomes
large. The normal distribution, which may already be familiar to us as the curve with
bell shape, is sometime called as Gauss distribution.
87
Definition 4
The random variable, X with a mean and a standard deviation of is written as
X ~ N , 2 . The probability density function of X is
f x
1 x
where
e 2.718
= 3.14
= population mean
= population standard deviation

is called a normal distribution. Normal distribution is frequently applied in finding the
probability of certain range for continuous measurement such as height, weight and
time.
Theory 11
The value of x can take any numerical value.
A normal distribution curve is bell-shaped.
The total area under a normal distribution curve is equal to 1.00 or 100%.
1
f x dx
2
88
e 2
The curve is symmetric, which means that its shape is the same on both sides.
0.5
0.5
The mean, mode and median are equal and are located at the center of the
distribution.
The curve never touches the x axis.
For the calculation, we will standardized the normal distribution.
x
The formula for standard normal distribution is P Z

.

Example 19
By using the normal distribution table, find the value of P Z 1.98 .
Answer Example 19
Using J.Murdoch statistical table,
The answer for P Z 1.98 = 0.0239
89
Example 20
Calculate the probabilities for the standard normal distribution.
(a)
PZ 3.15 .
(b)
PZ 2.85 .
(c)
P Z 2.2 .
(d)
PZ 1.54 .
(e)
P 1.72 Z 2.76 .
(f)
P 1.72 Z 2.3 .
(g)
P 0.24 Z 1.89 .
(h)
P Z 1.53 .
(i)
P Z 1.91 .
Answer Example 20
(a)
P Z 3.15 0.00082 .
(b)
P Z 2.85 1 P Z 2.85 1 0.00219 0.9978 .
(c)
P Z 2.2 PZ 2.2 0.0139 .
(d)
P Z 1.54 1 PZ 1.54 1 0.0618 0.9382 .
(e)
P1.72 Z 2.76 P Z 1.72 P Z 2.76 0.0427 0.00289 0.0398 .
(f) P 1.72 Z 2.3 1 PZ 1.72 PZ 2.3 1 0.0427 0.01072 0.9466 .

(g) P 0.24 Z 1.89 PZ 0.24 PZ 1.89 0.4052 0.0294 0.3758 .
(h) P Z 1.35 2PZ 1.35 0.0885 0.1770 .
(i) P Z 1.91 1 2PZ 1.91 1 20.0281 0.9438 .
90
Example 21
Suppose the current measurements in a strip of wire are assumed to follow a normal
distribution with a mean of 10 mill amperes and a variance of 4 (mill amperes)2. What
is the probability that a measurement will
(a)
exceed thirteen mill amperes ?
(b)
between nine and eleven mill amperes ?
Answer Example 21
Let X denote the current in mill amperes, X ~ N 10, 4 . So 10 and 4 2 .
(a)
13 10
P X 13 P Z
PZ 1.5 0.0668
2
(b)
11 10
9 10
P9 X 11 P
Z
2
2
P 0.5 Z 0.5
1 2P Z 0.5
0.3829
Example 22
The diameter of a shaft in an optical storage drive is normally distributed with a mean
0.2508 inch and standard deviation 0.0005 inch. The specifications on the shelf
are 0.2500 0.0015 inch. What is the probability of shaft conforms to specifications ?
Answer Example 22
Let X denote the shaft diameter in inches, then X ~ N 0.2508 , 0.0005 2 .
0.2515 0.2508
0.2485 0.2508
P0.2485 X 0.2515 P
Z
0.0005
0.0005
P 4.6 Z 1.4
1 P Z 4.6 P Z 1.4
1 0.0000 0.0808
0.9192
91
Theory 13
We can find the normal distribution probabilities by using Casio scientific calculator
(FX-570W and FX-570MS).
Step 1 : Press MODE
MODE
to enter SD Mode.
Step 2 : Press SHIFT
DISTR to produce the screen shown below

P( Q( R( t
1
2 3
4
Step 3: Input a value from
1
calculation we want perform.
to 3
to select the probability distribution
P(t)
Q(t)
R(t)
Example 23
Find the following probabilities, by using Casio Scientific Calculator fx-570W or fx570MS.
(a)
P( Z 0.75).
(b)
P( Z 0.95).
(c)
P( Z 1.42) .
(d)
P( Z 1.43).
(e)
P( | Z | 1.23).
(f)
P( | Z | 0.99).
(g)
P(0.67 Z 1.34) .
(h)
P(1.74 Z 0.75).
(i)
P(1.54 Z 2.32) .
92
Answer Example 23
(a)
SHIFT
DISTR
0.75
0.2266
(b)
SHIFT
DISTR
0.95
0.8289
(c)
SHIFT
DISTR
1.42
0.0778
(d)
SHIFT
DISTR
1.43
0.9236
(e)
SHIFT
DISTR
1.23
0.2187
(f)
SHIFT
DISTR
0.99
0.6778
(g)
SHIFT
DISTR
0.67
1.34
0.75
1.74
1.54
2.32
(h)
SHIFT
SHIFT
DISTR
(i)
3
SHIFT
SHIFT
DISTR
DISTR
SHIFT
DISTR
3
DISTR
0.1613
0.1901
0.9281
Example 24
Let exam marks for 200 students are normally distributed with 50 and 2 16 .
Find the number of student that passed the exam (the marks are 40).
Answer Example 25
Let X be the exam marks, X ~ N 50, 16 .
40 50
P X 40 P Z
PZ 2.5
`16
1 P Z 2.5
1 0.0062
0.9938
So the number of student that passed the exam is 200 0.9938 198.758 199 .
93
Exercise 3.5
1.
If the height of 300 students is normally distributed with mean 68 in and

standard deviation 0.0025 in, how many students have height greater than 72
in?
2.
Studies show that gasoline use for compact cars sold in the Batu Pahat is
normally distributed, with a mean of 25.5 miles per gallon (mpg) and a
standard deviation of 4.5 mpg. What percentage of compacts gets 30 mpg or
more?
3.
A study of lease rates for a selection of 2006 cars revealed that the average
monthly rate for a vehicle was RM 220.67. The standard deviation was RM
59.63. Assume that the rates follow a normal distribution.
(a)
What is the probability that a random car will lease for less than RM
150?
(b)
Find the probability that a random car will lease for more than RM
350?
4.
Based on data from ACT in 2007, the average science reasoning test score
was 20.9, with a standard deviation of 4.6. Assuming that the scores are
normally distributed:
(a)
Find the probability that a randomly selected student has a science

reasoning ACT score of least 25.
(b)
Find the probability that a randomly selected student has a science

reasoning ACT score between 20 and 26.
5.
The average annual charges per credit card in 2006 were RM 9600 according
from one research. Assuming that the annual charges per card are
approximately normally distributed with a standard deviation of RM 2100,
what is the probability that a credit card customers annual charges are
(a)
less than RM 4000
(b)
between RM 5000 and RM 10,000
94
6.
The grades on an examination whose mean is 525 and whose standard

deviation is 80 are normally distributed. What is the probability that the
person will score the examination below than 350 ?
7.
For a car traveling 30 miles per hour (mph), the distance required to brake to a
stop is normally distributed with a mean of 50 feet and a standard deviation of
8 feet. Suppose you are traveling in a residential area and a car abruptly into
your path at a distance of 60 feet. What is the probability that you will
8.
(a)
brake a stop within 40 feet or less ?
(b)
Brake a stop between 40 feet and 45 feet ?
Suppose that you must establish regulations concerning the maximum number
of people who can occupy an elevator. A study of elevator occupancies
indicates that if eight people occupy the elevator, the probability distribution
of the total weight of the eight people has a mean equal to 1200 pounds and a
standard deviation of 99 pounds. What is the probability that the total weight
of eight people exceeds 1300 pounds ?
9.
Suppose that the unsupported stem diameters at the base of a particular

species of sunflower plant have a normal distribution with an average
diameter of 35 millimeter and a standard deviation of 3 millimeter.
(a)
What is the probability that a sunflower plant will have a basal

diameter of more than 40 mm ?
(b)
What is the probability that a sunflower plant will have a basal

diameter between 30 mm and 40 mm ?
10.
The meat department at a Parit Raja supermarket specifically prepares its 1

kg packages of ground beef so that there will be a variety of weights, some
slightly more and more slightly less than 1 kg. Suppose it is normally
distributed with a mean of 1 kg and a standard deviation of 0.15 kg. What is
95
the probability of the packages will weight between 0.95 kg and 1.05 kg ?
11.
The discharge of suspended solids from a phosphate mine is normally

distributed, with a mean daily discharge of 27 milligrams per liter (mg/l) and a
standard deviation of 14 mg/l. What is the probability if the daily discharge
exceed 50 mg/l ?
12.
Suppose the individual 2008 January prime interest rate forecasts of economic
analysts are approximately normally distributed with the mean equal to 8.5
and a standard deviation equal to 0.2. If a single analyst is randomly selected
from among this group, what is the probability that the analysts forecast of
the prime rate will take on these values ?
(a)
13.
exceed 8.75
(b)
less than 8.375
Suppose the numbers of a particular type of bacteria in samples of 1 milliliter

of drinking water tend to be approximately normally distributed, with a mean
of 85 and a standard deviation of 9. What is the probability it will more than
100 bacteria?
14.
How does the income tax bureau decide on the percentage of income tax
returns to audit for each state? Suppose it is approximately normally
distributed with a mean 1.55% and a standard deviation 0.45%.
(a)
What is the probability that a particular state will have more than 2.5%
of its income tax returns audited ?
(b)
What is the probability that a state will have less than 1% of its income
tax returns audited ?
15.
A study have been done to look at the amount of money spent at shopping
complex between 4 pm and 6 pm on Sundays and had a normal distribution
with a mean RM 85 and with a standard deviation of RM 20. A shopper is
96
randomly selected on a Sunday between 4 pm and 6 pm and asked about their

spending patterns.
(a)
What is the probability that they spent more than RM 95 at the mall ?
(b)
What is the probability that they spent between RM 95 and RM 115 at

the mall ?
Answer Exercise 2.5

1.
20
2.
15.87%
3.
(a)
0.1170
(b)
0.0150
4.
(a)
0.1867
(b)
0.4458
5.
(a)
0.0038
(b)
0.5610
6.
0.01435
7.
(a)
0.10565
(b)
0.16034
8.
0.1562
9.
(a)
0.0475
(b)
0.90448
10.
0.26086
11.
0.05021
12.
(a)
0.2676
13.
0.04779
14.
(a)
0.01738
(b)
15.
(a)
0.3085 (b)
0.2417
0.1056 (b)
0.11085
97
2.6 Normal approximation to binomial distribution
It should not be surprise to learn that the normal distribution can be used to
approximate binomial probabilities for cases in which n is large. Normal
approximation should be used only when np 5 and nq 5 . Figure (a) shows the
probability for a binomial distribution. Figure (b) shows an approximation of
binomial probabilities by normal probabilities.
Because binomial distribution is discrete and the normal distribution is continuous,

then we must use the continuity correction (adding and subtracting 0.5). For example,
to find the probability of 12 successes, we will use P 11.5 X 12.5 .
Theory 14
Binomial Distribution
Normal Distribution
(i)
P(X = a)
P(a 0.5 < X < a + 0.5)
(ii)
P(X a)
P(X > a 0.5)
(iii)
P(X > a)
P(X > a + 0.5)
(iv)
P(X a)
P(X < a + 0.5)
(v)
P(X < a)
P(X < a 0.5)
(vi)
P(a X b)
P(a 0.5 < X < b + 0.5)
(vii)
P(a < X < b)
P(a + 0.5 < X < b 0.5)
For all cases, = E(x) = np, npq , np 5 , and nq 5 .
98
Theory 15
There are five steps to use normal approximation to binomial Distribution
Step 1 : Check whether the normal approximation can be used.
Step 2 : Find the value of mean and standard deviation.
Step 3 : Write the problem in probability notation, using X .
Step 4: Rewrite the problem by using the continuity correction factor, and show the
corresponding area under the normal distribution.
Step 5 : Find the corresponding Z value and solution.
Example 26
In a digital communication channel, assume that the number of bits received in error
can be modeled by a binomial random variable, and assume that the probability that a
bit is received in error is 1 10 5 . If 16 million bits are transmitted, what is the
probability that 150 of fewer errors occur ?
Answer Example 26
Let X denote the number of errors. Then X ~ B16000000 , 1 10 5 .
Step 1 : np 16000000 1 10 5 160 , the normal distribution can be use
since np 5 and nq is much larger.

Step 2 : np 16000000 1 10 5 160
npq 16000000 1 10 5 1 1 10 5
Step 3 : X ~ N 160, 1601 10 5
Step 4 : P X 150 PZ 150 0.5
150.5 160
Step 5 : P Z
160 1 10 5
PZ 0.751 0.2263

99
Example 27
A magazine reported that ten percent of Malaysian drivers use hand phone while on
the motorcycle. If two hundred drivers are selected at random, find the probability
that exact thirty of them use hand phone while riding the motorcycle.
Answer Example 27
Firstly, thought as a binomial experiment:
Since three hundred drivers are selected at random, then n = 200.
Let : probability of success, i.e. use hand phone while driving,
p = 0.10.
probability of failure, i.e. not use hand phone while driving, q = 0.90.
Therefore the binomial random variable, X can be written as X ~ B(200, 0.10) .
Step 1 :
np = (200)(0.10) = 20 and nq = (200)(0.90) = 180

Since np 5 and nq 5 , the normal distribution can be used.
Step 2 :
= np = (200)(0.10) = 20
npq (200)(0.10)(0.90) 18 4.2426

Step 3 :
X ~ N(20, 4.2426)
P(X = 30)
Step 4 :
Using the continuity correction, we find the probability

45.5 20
44.5 20
P(44.5 < X < 45.5) P
Z
4.2426
4.2426
Step 5 :
= P(2.2392 < Z < 2.4749)

= 0.0126 0.0067 = 0.0059.
Example 28
In a photographic process, the developing time of prints may looked upon as random
variable having the normal distribution with mean 15.40 and standard deviation 0.48
second. Find the probabilities that the time it takes to develop one of the prints will be
(a)
at least 16.00 seconds.
100
(b)
at most 14.20 seconds.
(c)
anywhere from 15.00 to 15.80 seconds.
Answer Example 28
Let X be the time it takes to develop one of the prints X ~ N 15.40,0.482
(a)
16.00 15.40
P X 16.00 P Z
0.48
PZ 1.25
0.10565
(b)
14.20 15.40
P X 14.20 P Z
0.48
PZ 2.50
0.00621
(c)
15.80 15.40
15.00 15.40
P15.00 X 15.80 P
Z
0.48
0.48
P 0.833 Z 0.833
1 20.20327 0.5935
Example 29
Based upon past experience at TT Tires Manufacturing, 8% of certain branded tires
produced are defective during ongoing production process. If a random sample of
1,600 tires s selected, what is the approximate probability that
(a)
exactly 125 tires will be defective ?
(b)
at least 150 tires will be defective ?
(c)
not more than 110 tires will be defective ?
101
Answer Example 29
np 128, npq 1280.92 10.8517

(a)
P X 125 P124.5 X 125.5

125 .5 128
124 .5 128
P
Z
10.8517
10.8517
P 0.3225 Z 0.2304
PZ 0.2304 PZ 0.3225
0.40889 0.37354
0.03535
(b)
P X 150 P X 149.5
X 128 149 .5 128
P
10.8517
10.8517
PZ 1.9813
0.02378
(c)
P X 110 P X 109.5
X 128 109 .5 128
P
10.8517
10.8517
P Z 1.7048
1 P Z 1.7048
1 0.04412
0.95588
Exercise 2.6
1.
Evaluate
(a)
P(Z 1.02).
(b)
P( Z 1.26).
(c)
P( Z 1.52).
(d)
P(0.91 Z 0.91).
(e)
P( 1.97 Z 1.26).
(f)
P(0 Z 1.74).
102
2.
Assume that X is normally distributed with a mean of 5 and a standard

deviation of 4. Determine the following.
3.
(a)
P X 11 .
(b)
P X 0 .
(c)
P 3 X 7 .
(d)
P 2 X 9 .
The comprehensive strength of samples of cement can be modeled by a

normal distribution with a mean of 6000 kilograms per square centimeter and
a standard deviation of 100 kilograms per square centimeter.
(a)
What
is
the
probability
that
sample
strength
is
less
than 6250 Kg/cm2 ?

(b)
What is the probability that sample strength is between 5800 Kg/cm2

and 5900 Kg/cm2 ?
4.
The line width for semiconductor manufacturing is assumed to be normally

distributed with a mean of 0.5 micrometer and a standard deviation of 0.05
micrometer.
(a)
What is the probability that a line width is greater that 0.62

micrometer ?
(b)
What is the probability that a line width is between 0.47 and 0.63
micrometer ?
5.
The speed of a file transfer from a server on a campus to a personal computer

at a students college on a weekday evening is normally distributed with a
mean of 60 kilobits per second and a standard deviation of 4 kilobits per
second.
(a)
What is the probability that the file will transfer at a speed of 70

kilobits per second or more ?
103
(b)
What is the probability that the file will transfer at a speed of less than
58 kilobits per second ?
6.
In an accelerator center, an experiment needs a 1.41 cm thick aluminum

cylinder. Suppose that the thickness of a cylinder has a normal distribution
with a mean 1.41 cm and a standard deviation of 0.01 cm. What is the
probability that a thickness of a cylinder is greater than 1.42 cm ?
7.
The average time for a mail carrier to cover his route is 380 minutes and the
standard deviation is 16 minutes. If one of these trips is selected at random,
find the probability that the carrier will have the following route time. Assume
the variable is normally distributed.
8.
(a)
At least 350 minutes.
(b)
At most 395 minutes.
An electronic office product contains 5000 electronic components. Assume

that the probability that each component operated without failure during the
useful life of the product is 0.999, and assume that the components fail
independently. Approximate the probability that 10 or more of the original
5000 components fail during the useful life of product.
9.
The reliability of an electrical fuse is the probability that a fuse, chosen at

random from production, will function under its designed conditions. A
random sample of 1000 fuses was tested and x = 27 defectives were observed.
Calculate the approximate probability of observing 27 or more defectives,
assuming that the fuse reliability is 0.98.
10.
A producer of soft drinks was fairly certain that her brand had a 10% share of
the soft drink market. In a market survey involving 2500 customers of soft
drinks, x = 211 expressed a preference for her brand. If the 10% figure is
104
correct, find the probability of observing 211 or fewer consumers who are
prefer her brand of soft drink.
11.
Airlines and hotels often grant reservations in excess of capacity to minimize

losses due to no-shows. Suppose the records of a hotel show that, on the
average, 10% of their prospective guests will not claim their reservation. If the
hotel accepts 215 reservations and there are only 200 rooms in the hotel, what
is the probability that all guests who are arrive to claim a room will receive
one?
12.
13.
Find the probability that 200 tosses of a coin will result in

(a)
between 80 and 120 heads inclusive
(b)
less than 90 heads
Find the probability that on a true-false examination a student can guess

correctly the answers to
14.
(a)
12 or more out of 20 questions.
(b)
24 or more out of 40 questions.
Ten percent of the bolts that a machine produces are defective. Find the
probability that in a random sample of 400 bolts produced by this machine
15.
(a)
at most 30 bolts will be defective
(b)
between 35 and 45 bolts will be defective.
Find the probability of getting more than 25 sevens in 100 tosses of a pair of
fair dice.
105
Answer Exercise 2.6

1.
(a)
0.8461 (b)
0.8962 (c)
(d)
0.6372
(e)
0.0794
(f)
0.4591
(a)
0.93319
(b)
0.89435
(c)
0.38292
(d)
0.80128
3.
(a)
0.99379
(b)
0.13591
4.
(a)
0.0082
(b)
0.72109
5.
(a)
0.00621
(b)
0.308538
6.
0.1587
7.
(a)
0.9699
(b)
0.8264
8.
0.02203
9.
0.0708
10.
0.0051
11.
0.9441
12.
(a)
0.9962 (b)
0.0687
13.
(a)
0.2511 (b)
0.1342
14.
(a)
0.0567 (b)
0.6404
15.
0.0089
2.
0.0643
106
EXERCISE CHAPTER 2
1.
Because not all airline passengers show up their reserved seat, an airline sells
125 tickets for a flight that holds only 120 passengers. The probability that a
passenger does not show up is 0.10, and the passengers behave independently.
(a)
What is the probability that every passenger who shows up can take
the flight ?
(b)
2.
What is the probability that the flight departs with empty seats ?
A home security system is designed to have a 99% reliability rate. Suppose

that nine homes equipped with this system experience an attempted burglary.
Find the probabilities of these events
3.
(a)
at least one of the alarms is triggered.
(b)
more than seven of the alarms are triggered.
(c)
eight or fewer alarms are triggered.
Car color preferences change over the years and according to the particular
model that the customer selects. In a recent year, suppose that 10% of all
luxury cars sold were black. If 25 cars of that year and type are randomly
selected, find the following probabilities
4.
(a)
at least five cars are black.
(b)
at most six cars are black.
(c)
exactly four cars are black.
(d)
between three and five cars (inclusive) are black.
(e)
more than 20 cars are not black.
Records shows that 30% of all patients admitted to a medical clinic fail to pay
their bills and that eventually the bills are forgiven. Suppose the large set of
prospective patients served by the clinic. Find these probabilities
(a)
All the patients bills will eventually have to be forgiven.
(b)
One will have to be forgiven.
107
(c)
5.
None will have to be forgiven.
A safety engineer claims that only sixty percent of all workers wear safety
helmets when they eat lunch at the workplace. Assume that his claim is
correct, find the probability that four out of six workers chosen randomly will
wear their helmets while having lunch at the workplace.
6.
A recent study of robberies for a certain geographic region showed an average

of one robbery per 20,000 people. In a city of 80,000 people, find the
probability of the following
7.
(a)
no robberies.
(b)
one robberies.
(c)
three or more robberies.
If approximately 2% of the people in a room of 200 people are left-handed,

find the probability that exactly five people there are left-handed.
8.
If 3% of all cars fail the emissions inspection, find the probability that in a
sample of 90 cars, at least four will fail.
9.
If a baseball players batting average is 0.320 (32%), find the probability that
the player will get at most 26 hits in 100 times at bat.
10.
The percentage of Malaysians 25 years or older who have at least some

college education is 50.9%. In a random sample of 300 of Malaysian 25 years
old and older, what is the probability that more than 175 have at least some
college education ?
11.
In a large shipment of automobile tires, 10% have a certain flaw. Ten tires are
chosen at random to be installed on a car.
108
12.
(a)
Find the mean and variance of the flaw.
(b)
What is the probability at least three tires has flaw ?
Shafts manufactured for use in optical storage devices have diameters that are
normally distributed with mean 0.652 cm and standard deviation 0.003 cm.
The specification for the shaft diameter is 0.650 0.005 cm .
(a)
What is the probability that the shafts manufactured by this process

meet the specification?
(b)
If the mean is set to 0.650 cm, what must the standard deviation be so
that 99% of the shafts will meet specification?
13.
When a customer places an order with Hanisss On-Line Office Supplies, a

computerized accounting information system (AIS) automatically checks to
see if the customer has exceeded his or her credit limit. Past record indicated
that the probability of customers exceeding their credit limit is 0.35. Suppose
that, on a given day, 20 customers place orders. Assume that X is the number
of customers that AIS detects as having their credit limit.
(a)
What are the mean and standard deviation of the number of customers
exceeding their credit limits ?
(b)
What is the probability that none customers will exceed their limits ?
(c)
What is the probability that at least thirteen customers will exceed

their limits ?
14.
Let say that another supplier, Umars On-Line Service Supplies, is doing same
as Hanisss company. Past record indicated that the probability of customers
exceeding their credit limit is 0.5 and on a given day, and 35 customers place
their orders. (Hint: Use suitable approximation)
(a)
What are the mean and standard deviation of the number of customers
exceeding their credit limits ?
(b)
What is the probability that 15 of the customers will exceed their
109
limits ?
(c)
What is the probability that at least 13 customers will exceed their

limits ?
15.
The number of messages received by a computer bulletin board is Poisson

random variable with a mean rate of five messages per hour. What is the
probability that
(a)
three message are received in a given hour ?
(b)
six messages are received in 1.5 hours ?
(c)
fewer than four messages are received in 1.5 hours ?
ANSWER EXERCISE CHAPTER 2

1.
(a)
0.9961
(b)
0.9886
2.
(a)
1.00
(b)
0.997
(c)
0.086
3.
(a)
0.098
(b)
0.991
(c)
0.098
(d)
0.138
(e)
0.430
(f)
0.902
4.
(a)
0.0081
(b)
0.4116
(c)
0.2401
5.
0.31104
6.
(a)
(b)
0.0733
(c)
0.7619
7.
0.1563
8.
0.2859
9.
0.119
10.
0.00423
11.
(a)
(b)
0.0702
12.
(a)
0.8314
(b)
0.001519
13.
(a)
2.1331
(b)
0.0002
(c)
0.006
14.
(a)
17.5 2.958 (b)
0.09425
(c)
0.04549
15.
(a)
0.1404
0.1367
(c)
0.05914
0.0183
1.9
(b)
110
SUMMARY CHAPTER 2
Formula
Mean
Variance
Formula
Mean
Variance
Formula
Condition
Mean
Condition
Mean
Variance
Binomial Distribution
n!
P X x
p x q n x n C x p x q n x
x ! n x !
np
2 npq
Poisson Distribution
e x
P X x
x!
x 0, 1, 2, ...,
Normal Distribution
x
P Z
Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution

Use if n 30 and p 0.1
np
Normal Approximation to the Binomial Distribution
Use if n is large and np 5 and nq 5
np
npq
111
CORRECTION PAGE CHAPTER 2
112

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Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

CHAPTER 2 : SPECIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Key Term (English to Bahasa Melayu)

7. Standard normal distribution

Taburan normal piawai

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

2.2 The Binomial Distribution

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

constant for all customers. Otherwise P F is the probability that a customer

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

In general, each of the sample space outcomes describing the occurrence of x

binomial probability distribution) with X ~ Bn, p .

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

q = 1 p , probability of failure in a single trial

x = number of success in n trials, so x can be any number between 0 and n

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

Not more than

Not less than

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

none has a part-time job.

exactly two have part time jobs.

not more than three of them will have part-time jobs.

greater than three will have part-time jobs.

at least three of them will have part-time jobs.

0.1681 5 C1 0.31 0.7 51 0.3087 0.1323

0.1681 0.3602 0.3087 0.1323

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

0.1323 0.0284 0.0024

The value of 0.1631 is the answer, then P x 3 0.1631 .

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

will hit at least four birds.

will hit at least one bird.

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

5 C4 (0.6) 4 (0.4)1 5 C5 (0.6) 5 (0.4) 0

1 5C0 (0.6) 0 (0.4) 5

P hit at least four birds 1 P (doesn' t hit at least two birds )

P hit at least one bird 1 P (doesn' t hit at least five birds )

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

all of them are died.

only two of the patients are recovered.

Let X = no of cancer patients who died after the chemotherapy

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

P( X 5)5C5 (0.75) 5 (0.25) 0

Only two recovered, so three are died.

P( X 3) 5C3 (0.75) 3 (0.25) 2

Let X be a binomial random variable with X ~ B 10, 0.1 . Calculate the

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

Evaluate these binomial probabilities.

Over 20 mornings, what is the probability that the light is green on

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

exactly four days ?

Over 20 mornings, what is the probability that the light is green on

Find the probability that none of the households are tuned to 60

Find the probability that at least one household is tuned to 60 minutes.

Find the probability that at most one household is tuned to 60 minutes.

An experiment involving a gender-selection method includes a control group

The Haniss Department Store has experienced a 3.2% rate of customer

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions

If we assume that people are indifferent so that 50% believed that

A regimen consisting of a daily dose of vitamin C was tested to determine its

Chapter 2: Special Probability Distributions