INICIALIZACIN

SIMULACIN

Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42

Demanda
167.6
129.5
154.3
139.8
86.5
146.3
152.8
146.5
144.8
135.0
211.7
160.1
188.2
146.8
116.6
132.9
165.5
186.6
163.8
137.6
156.1
144.0
170.1
112.2
139.7
147.2
197.6
155.3
137.8
154.0
163.7
162.8
199.6
176.3
97.1
165.9
156.5
127.6
201.7
179.3
163.4
182.7

N = 15 sem.

et

et2

|et|

152.3
155.7
156.3
155.7
157.3
155.1
155.5
151.2
153.7
151.5
150.9
153.4
155.4
155.2
156.1
156.9
154.2
154.9
155.7
152.9
158.9
161.5
162.6

-14.6
0.4
-12.4
14.3
-45.1
-15.5
-8.2
46.4
1.7
-13.7
3.1
10.4
7.4
44.4
20.2
-59.9
11.6
1.7
-28.2
48.9
20.4
1.9
20.1

213.9
0.2
152.6
204.8
2037.2
238.9
67.7
2153.0
2.9
188.1
9.7
107.4
55.1
1972.0
409.1
3586.2
135.7
2.8
792.6
2387.2
418.2
3.7
403.6

14.6
0.4
12.4
14.3
45.1
15.5
8.2
46.4
1.7
13.7
3.1
10.4
7.4
44.4
20.2
59.9
11.6
1.7
28.2
48.9
20.4
1.9
20.1

43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85

148.6
157.4
169.1
139.9
156.8
171.7
214.2
168.0
151.5
183.8
197.9
213.4
194.0
163.8
161.4
153.8
200.9
146.1
200.6
204.7
218.8
186.1
187.0
251.8
170.3
189.8
193.2
233.3
199.8
200.8
149.5
178.9
231.7
206.2
182.2
123.9
233.5
226.1
180.1
181.4
231.8
239.8
255.0

161.6
161.1
162.4
163.5
161.9
161.5
159.6
162.1
166.9
165.9
167.7
172.4
173.2
174.2
174.2
172.8
173.1
176.0
174.5
178.5
181.7
184.9
183.0
184.3
190.9
190.0
189.5
188.2
190.8
193.2
195.8
195.5
194.1
199.8
200.1
198.6
192.3
195.5
198.1
193.3
194.0
196.8
199.9

-12.9
-3.7
6.7
-23.5
-5.1
10.2
54.6
5.9
-15.3
17.9
30.2
41.0
20.8
-10.3
-12.8
-19.0
27.7
-29.9
26.1
26.1
37.1
1.2
4.1
67.5
-20.6
-0.2
3.7
45.2
9.1
7.6
-46.3
-16.6
37.7
6.4
-18.0
-74.7
41.3
30.6
-18.0
-11.9
37.8
43.0
55.1

167.6
13.8
44.4
552.6
26.1
103.9
2977.5
35.1
235.3
320.8
912.9
1681.0
431.9
106.9
163.9
359.4
769.0
892.6
683.7
682.6
1377.8
1.4
16.5
4558.5
426.2
0.1
13.7
2039.2
82.0
58.4
2147.3
276.2
1417.6
41.0
322.8
5585.2
1701.8
939.1
324.4
140.6
1430.5
1846.6
3030.9

12.9
3.7
6.7
23.5
5.1
10.2
54.6
5.9
15.3
17.9
30.2
41.0
20.8
10.3
12.8
19.0
27.7
29.9
26.1
26.1
37.1
1.2
4.1
67.5
20.6
0.2
3.7
45.2
9.1
7.6
46.3
16.6
37.7
6.4
18.0
74.7
41.3
30.6
18.0
11.9
37.8
43.0
55.1

86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

181.6
202.2
177.6
187.1
213.5
226.2
229.0
168.4
264.8
230.1
276.0
224.0
240.1
275.1
242.7

201.4
200.2
200.3
202.1
202.7
201.5
202.8
205.9
208.9
211.0
211.2
217.6
220.5
221.0
223.4

-19.7
2.0
-22.6
-15.1
10.8
24.8
26.2
-37.5
55.9
19.1
64.7
6.3
19.6
54.0
19.3

389.7
4.2
511.4
227.0
116.6
612.9
686.9
1408.8
3122.7
364.5
4190.4
40.1
385.6
2920.7
373.4

ECM
DMA

862.2
23.2

19.7
2.0
22.6
15.1
10.8
24.8
26.2
37.5
55.9
19.1
64.7
6.3
19.6
54.0
19.3

Pronstico de promedio mvil

300.0
250.0
200.0
Demanda/pronstico

150.0
100.0

Demanda

50.0

Pronstico, N = 15

0.0
0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Semana

anda

stico, N = 15

INICIALIZACIN
SIMULACIN

wi

0.5

0.25

0.13

0.06

Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39

Demanda
167.6
129.5
154.3
139.8
86.5
146.3
152.8
146.5
144.8
135.0
211.7
160.1
188.2
146.8
116.6
132.9
165.5
186.6
163.8
137.6
156.1
144.0
170.1
112.2
139.7
147.2
197.6
155.3
137.8
154.0
163.7
162.8
199.6
176.3
97.1
165.9
156.5
127.6
201.7

Pronstico

et

et2

40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82

179.3
163.4
182.7
148.6
157.4
169.1
139.9
156.8
171.7
214.2
168.0
151.5
183.8
197.9
213.4
194.0
163.8
161.4
153.8
200.9
146.1
200.6
204.7
218.8
186.1
187.0
251.8
170.3
189.8
193.2
233.3
199.8
200.8
149.5
178.9
231.7
206.2
182.2
123.9
233.5
226.1
180.1
181.4

83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

231.8
239.8
255.0
181.6
202.2
177.6
187.1
213.5
226.2
229.0
168.4
264.8
230.1
276.0
224.0
240.1
275.1
242.7
ECM

MAD

#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

0.06
|et|

Pronstico de promedio mvil ponderado

300.0
250.0
200.0
Demanda/pronstico

150.0
100.0

Column C

50.0

Column D

0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Semana

ponderado

0 90

Column C
Column D

INICIALIZACIN
SIMULACIN

Alpha

0.15

Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39

Demanda
167.6
129.5
154.3
139.8
86.5
146.3
152.8
146.5
144.8
135.0
211.7
160.1
188.2
146.8
116.6
132.9
165.5
186.6
163.8
137.6
156.1
144.0
170.1
112.2
139.7
147.2
197.6
155.3
137.8
154.0
163.7
162.8
199.6
176.3
97.1
165.9
156.5
127.6
201.7

Pronstico

et

et2

40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82

179.3
163.4
182.7
148.6
157.4
169.1
139.9
156.8
171.7
214.2
168.0
151.5
183.8
197.9
213.4
194.0
163.8
161.4
153.8
200.9
146.1
200.6
204.7
218.8
186.1
187.0
251.8
170.3
189.8
193.2
233.3
199.8
200.8
149.5
178.9
231.7
206.2
182.2
123.9
233.5
226.1
180.1
181.4

83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

231.8
239.8
255.0
181.6
202.2
177.6
187.1
213.5
226.2
229.0
168.4
264.8
230.1
276.0
224.0
240.1
275.1
242.7
ECM

MAD

#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

|et|
Pronstico de promedio de suavizacin exponencial simple
300.0
250.0
200.0
Demanda/pronstico

150.0
100.0

Column C

50.0

Column D

0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Semana

nencial simple

Column C
Column D

INICIALIZACIN
SIMULACIN

Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42

Demanda Pronstico
167.6
129.5
154.3
139.8
86.5
146.3
152.8
146.5
144.8
135.0
211.7
160.1
188.2
146.8
116.6
132.9
165.5
186.6
163.8
137.6
156.1
144.0
170.1
112.2
139.7
147.2
197.6
155.3
137.8
154.0
163.7
162.8
199.6
176.3
97.1
165.9
156.5
127.6
201.7
179.3
163.4
182.7

et

et2

|et|

43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85

148.6
157.4
169.1
139.9
156.8
171.7
214.2
168.0
151.5
183.8
197.9
213.4
194.0
163.8
161.4
153.8
200.9
146.1
200.6
204.7
218.8
186.1
187.0
251.8
170.3
189.8
193.2
233.3
199.8
200.8
149.5
178.9
231.7
206.2
182.2
123.9
233.5
226.1
180.1
181.4
231.8
239.8
255.0

86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

181.6
202.2
177.6
187.1
213.5
226.2
229.0
168.4
264.8
230.1
276.0
224.0
240.1
275.1
242.7

Pronstico de promedio regresin lineal simple

300.0
250.0
200.0
Demanda/pronstico

150.0
100.0

Column C

50.0

Column D

0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Semana

INICIALIZACIN
SIMULACIN

Alpha
Tau

0.16055499
1

Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37

Demanda
167.6
129.5
154.3
139.8
86.5
146.3
152.8
146.5
144.8
135.0
211.7
160.1
188.2
146.8
116.6
132.9
165.5
186.6
163.8
137.6
156.1
144.0
170.1
112.2
139.7
147.2
197.6
155.3
137.8
154.0
163.7
162.8
199.6
176.3
97.1
165.9
156.5

St

a1(0)
b1(0)
b2(0)

137.07
164.15
1.43

St[2]

Pronstico

Ajuste de regresin lineal a los datos de deman

250.0
200.0
150.0

f(x) = 1.4254321256x + 137.0712520534

R = 0.0845816239

100.0
50.0
0.0
0

156.7
157.8
154.6
154.8
153.1
155.8
148.8
147.3
147.3
155.4
155.4
152.6
152.8
154.5
155.9
162.9
165.1
154.1
156.0

149.2
151.6
149.3
150.4
149.4
152.7
146.2
145.2
145.5
153.9
154.1
151.5
151.9
153.8
155.2
162.4
164.6
153.8
155.7

165.29
160.85
160.09
157.51
159.52
151.92
149.96
149.52
157.23
156.93
153.85
153.87
155.45
156.64
163.54
165.59
154.59
156.40

10

38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80

127.6
201.7
179.3
163.4
182.7
148.6
157.4
169.1
139.9
156.8
171.7
214.2
168.0
151.5
183.8
197.9
213.4
194.0
163.8
161.4
153.8
200.9
146.1
200.6
204.7
218.8
186.1
187.0
251.8
170.3
189.8
193.2
233.3
199.8
200.8
149.5
178.9
231.7
206.2
182.2
123.9
233.5
226.1

156.1
151.5
159.6
162.8
162.9
166.0
163.2
162.3
163.4
159.6
159.2
161.2
169.7
169.4
166.5
169.3
173.9
180.3
182.5
179.5
176.6
172.9
177.4
172.4
176.9
181.4
187.4
187.2
187.2
197.5
193.2
192.6
192.7
199.2
199.3
199.6
191.5
189.5
196.3
197.9
195.3
183.9
191.8

155.8
151.3
159.4
162.6
162.7
165.9
163.2
162.2
163.3
159.6
159.1
161.1
169.7
169.4
166.5
169.3
173.9
180.2
182.4
179.5
176.6
172.9
177.4
172.4
176.9
181.4
187.4
187.2
187.1
197.5
193.2
192.6
192.7
199.2
199.3
199.6
191.5
189.5
196.3
197.9
195.3
183.9
191.8

156.42
151.79
159.81
162.94
163.02
166.17
163.36
162.40
163.48
159.70
159.23
161.23
169.73
169.46
166.58
169.34
173.93
180.27
182.47
179.48
176.57
172.92
177.41
172.39
176.92
181.37
187.39
187.17
187.15
197.53
193.16
192.62
192.71
199.23
199.33
199.57
191.52
189.50
196.27
197.86
195.34
183.87
191.85

81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

180.1
181.4
231.8
239.8
255.0
181.6
202.2
177.6
187.1
213.5
226.2
229.0
168.4
264.8
230.1
276.0
224.0
240.1
275.1
242.7

197.3
194.6
192.5
198.8
205.4
213.3
208.2
207.3
202.5
200.0
202.2
206.1
209.7
203.1
213.0
215.7
225.4
225.2
227.6
235.2

197.3
194.6
192.5
198.8
205.4
213.3
208.2
207.3
202.5
200.0
202.2
206.1
209.7
203.1
213.0
215.7
225.4
225.2
227.6
235.2

197.35
194.57
192.46
198.78
205.37
213.34
208.25
207.28
202.52
200.04
202.20
206.06
209.74
203.10
213.01
215.75
225.42
225.18
227.58
235.21
ECM
MAD

Allpha min
Alpha mx

et

0.01
0.3

et2

|et|

lineal a los datos de demanda del perriodo de inicializacin

Pronstico de promedio
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0

254321256x + 137.0712520534
45816239

Demanda/pronstico

100.0
50.0
0.0
10
0

27.7
4.7
16.1
-12.6
47.3
12.2
2.7
-48.0
1.9
19.2
-0.1
-9.8
-7.4
-43.0
-12.8
68.5
-11.3
-0.1

10

12

765
22
260
158
2241
150
7
2308
4
368
0
97
54
1849
164
4698
127
0

14

16

27.7
4.7
16.1
12.6
47.3
12.2
2.7
48.0
1.9
19.2
0.1
9.8
7.4
43.0
12.8
68.5
11.3
0.1

18

20

30
20

40

Sema

28.9
-50.0
-19.5
-0.5
-19.6
17.5
5.9
-6.7
23.5
2.9
-12.4
-52.9
1.7
17.9
-17.2
-28.6
-39.5
-13.7
18.6
18.1
22.8
-27.9
31.3
-28.2
-27.7
-37.5
1.3
0.1
-64.6
27.2
3.4
-0.6
-40.6
-0.6
-1.5
50.1
12.6
-42.2
-9.9
15.7
71.4
-49.7
-34.3

833
2495
380
0
386
307
35
45
554
9
155
2803
3
322
297
817
1558
188
348
327
518
780
978
798
769
1404
2
0
4176
741
11
0
1648
0
2
2510
159
1781
98
247
5105
2468
1174

28.9
50.0
19.5
0.5
19.6
17.5
5.9
6.7
23.5
2.9
12.4
52.9
1.7
17.9
17.2
28.6
39.5
13.7
18.6
18.1
22.8
27.9
31.3
28.2
27.7
37.5
1.3
0.1
64.6
27.2
3.4
0.6
40.6
0.6
1.5
50.1
12.6
42.2
9.9
15.7
71.4
49.7
34.3

17.3
13.1
-39.4
-41.0
-49.6
31.7
6.0
29.6
15.4
-13.4
-24.0
-23.0
41.3
-61.7
-17.1
-60.2
1.4
-14.9
-47.5
-7.5
889.9
23.4

299
173
1551
1682
2462
1005
36
878
239
181
577
527
1710
3804
291
3628
2
223
2255
56

17.3
13.1
39.4
41.0
49.6
31.7
6.0
29.6
15.4
13.4
24.0
23.0
41.3
61.7
17.1
60.2
1.4
14.9
47.5
7.5

nstico de promedio regresin lineal simple

stico

300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
Demanda

50.0
0.0
10
0

30
20

50
40

70
60

Semana

90
80 100

Pronsticco

INICIALIZACIN
SIMULACIN

Semana

Demanda

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41

167.6
129.5
154.3
139.8
86.5
146.3
152.8
146.5
144.8
135.0
211.7
160.1
188.2
146.8
116.6
132.9
165.5
186.6
163.8
137.6
156.1
144.0
170.1
112.2
139.7
147.2
197.6
155.3
137.8
154.0
163.7
162.8
199.6
176.3
97.1
165.9
156.5
127.6
201.7
179.3
163.4

Pr. Movil

Suav. Exp

R.L. simple

42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84

182.7
148.6
157.4
169.1
139.9
156.8
171.7
214.2
168.0
151.5
183.8
197.9
213.4
194.0
163.8
161.4
153.8
200.9
146.1
200.6
204.7
218.8
186.1
187.0
251.8
170.3
189.8
193.2
233.3
199.8
200.8
149.5
178.9
231.7
206.2
182.2
123.9
233.5
226.1
180.1
181.4
231.8
239.8

85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

255.0
181.6
202.2
177.6
187.1
213.5
226.2
229.0
168.4
264.8
230.1
276.0
224.0
240.1
275.1
242.7

S.Exp.Doble

Pronstico
combinado

et

et2

|et|

INICIALIZACIN
SIMULACIN

Semana

Demanda

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41

167.6
129.5
154.3
139.8
86.5
146.3
152.8
146.5
144.8
135.0
211.7
160.1
188.2
146.8
116.6
132.9
165.5
186.6
163.8
137.6
156.1
144.0
170.1
112.2
139.7
147.2
197.6
155.3
137.8
154.0
163.7
162.8
199.6
176.3
97.1
165.9
156.5
127.6
201.7
179.3
163.4

Pr. Movil

Suav. Exp

R.L. simple

42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84

182.7
148.6
157.4
169.1
139.9
156.8
171.7
214.2
168.0
151.5
183.8
197.9
213.4
194.0
163.8
161.4
153.8
200.9
146.1
200.6
204.7
218.8
186.1
187.0
251.8
170.3
189.8
193.2
233.3
199.8
200.8
149.5
178.9
231.7
206.2
182.2
123.9
233.5
226.1
180.1
181.4
231.8
239.8

85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

255.0
181.6
202.2
177.6
187.1
213.5
226.2
229.0
168.4
264.8
230.1
276.0
224.0
240.1
275.1
242.7
ECM

1/
wi

S.Exp.Doble

Pronstico
combinado

et

et2

|et|