http://www.boardgamegeek.

com/thread/390728

One thing I got to thinking about

with this game is the extra side of
the dice for the attacker vs. the fact
that the defender wins on ties. The
math on this works out just like
another game I used to play,
Heroscape. Heroscape has 3 attacker
"hits" per D6 and only 2 defender
"hits"(shields). It turns out that on
an equal number of dice, the
defender is more likely to win at 1 or
2 dice per side, but the odds swing
towards the attacker's favor at 3+
dice.
Taking 2 dice per side as an example:
Defender Odds:
1/9 = 2 hits
4/9 = 1 hit
4/9 = 0 hits

Attacker Odds:
1/4 = 2 hits
1/2 = 1 hit
1/4 = 0 hits
Outcomes for a failed attack (Def hits
>= Atk hits):
1) Atk 0 hits (1/8) = 25%
2) Atk 1 hit (1/2) & Def >=1 hit
(4/9+1/9) = 1/2*5/9 = 27.8%
3) Atk 2 hits (1/4) & Def 2 hits (1/9)
= 1/4*1/9 = 3.1%
Add these up, the attacker loses
55.9% of the time.
Taking 3 dice per side as an example:
Defender Odds:
1/27 - 3 hits
6/27 - 2 hit

12/27 - 1 hit
8/27 - 0 hits
Attacker Odds:
1/8 - 3 hits
3/8 - 2 hits
3/8 - 1 hit
1/8 - 0 hits
Outcomes for a failed attack (Def hits
>= Atk hits):
1) Atk 0 hits (1/8) = 12.5%
2) Atk 1 hit (3/8) & Def >=1 hit
(12/27+6/27+1/27) = 3/8*19/27 =
26.4%
3) Atk 2 hits (3/8) & Def >=2 hits
(6/27+1/27) = 3/8*7/27 = 9.7%
4) Atk 3 hits (1/8) & Def 3 hits
(1/27) = 1/8*1/27 = 0.5%
Add these up, the attacker loses

49.1% of the time.

Hit Probability Table
Someone did a full table for
Heroscape. Only the first column
representing at least 1 Hit matters
for Conan:
http://casdra.com/home/heroscape.h
tml
Obviously this doesn't take into
account having Conan in the region
or cards to allow hits on axes/shields.
***
Heroscape Hit Probability Table
At
Least
Def
Atta
1
ens
ck
Hit
e
0.3
1
1
33
1
2 0.2

10

22
0.1
48
0.0
99
0.0
66
0.0
44
0.0
29
0.0
20
0.0
13
0.0
09

Def
Atta
1
ens
ck
Hit
e
0.5
2
1
83
0.4
2
2
44
0.3
2
3
33
0.2
2
4
47
0.1
2
5
81
0.1
2
6
32
0.0
2
7
95
0.0
2
8
68

2
Hit
s
0.1
67
0.1
11
0.0
74
0.0
49
0.0
33
0.0
22
0.0
15
0.0
10

2
2
Atta
ck
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Atta
ck
4
4
4

0.0 0.0
49 07
0.0 0.0
10
35 04
Def
2
1
ens
Hit
Hit
e
s
0.7 0.3
1
50 75
0.6 0.2
2
25 78
0.5 0.2
3
09 04
0.4 0.1
4
07 48
0.3 0.1
5
21 07
0.2 0.0
6
50 77
0.1 0.0
7
92 55
0.1 0.0
8
46 39
0.1 0.0
9
11 28
0.0 0.0
10
83 20
Def
2
1
ens
Hit
Hit
e
s
0.8 0.5
1
54 63
0.7 0.4
2
57 51
0.6 0.3
3
55 56
9

3
Hit
s
0.0
83
0.0
56
0.0
37
0.0
25
0.0
16
0.0
11
0.0
07
0.0
05
0.0
03
0.0
02
3
Hit
s
0.2
29
0.1
67
0.1
20

4
Hit
s
0.0
42
0.0
28
0.0
19

10

0.5
56
0.4
63
0.3
80
0.3
08
0.2
46
0.1
95
0.1
53

Def
Atta
1
ens
ck
Hit
e
0.9
5
1
17
0.8
5
2
47
0.7
5
3
66
0.6
5
4
79
0.5
5
5
92
0.5
5
6
07
0.4
5
7
29
0.3
5
8
58
0.2
5
9
95
5 10 0.2

0.2
78
0.2
14
0.1
63
0.1
23
0.0
93
0.0
69
0.0
51
2
Hit
s
0.7
08
0.6
04
0.5
06
0.4
17
0.3
38
0.2
72
0.2
16
0.1
69
0.1
32
0.1

0.0
86
0.0
62
0.0
44
0.0
31
0.0
22
0.0
15
0.0
11
3
Hit
s
0.3
96
0.3
09
0.2
38
0.1
82
0.1
38
0.1
04
0.0
77
0.0
57
0.0
42
0.0

0.0
12
0.0
08
0.0
05
0.0
04
0.0
02
0.0
02
0.0
01
4
Hit
s
0.1
35
0.0
97
0.0
69
0.0
49
0.0
35
0.0
25
0.0
17
0.0
12
0.0
09
0.0

5
Hit
s
0.0
21
0.0
14
0.0
09
0.0
06
0.0
04
0.0
03
0.0
02
0.0
01
0.0
01
0.0

41
Def
Atta
1
ens
ck
Hit
e
0.9
6
1
53
0.9
6
2
06
0.8
6
3
46
0.7
6
4
76
0.7
6
5
00
0.6
6
6
22
0.5
6
7
44
0.4
6
8
70
0.4
6
9
01
0.3
6 10
39
Def
Atta
1
ens
ck
Hit
e
0.9
7
1
74
0.9
7
2
44
0.9
7
3
01
0.8
7
4
48
7
5 0.7

02
2
Hit
s
0.8
13
0.7
26
0.6
36
0.5
48
0.4
65
0.3
89
0.3
22
0.2
64
0.2
14
0.1
71
2
Hit
s
0.8
83
0.8
16
0.7
41
0.6
62
0.5

31
3
Hit
s
0.5
52
0.4
57
0.3
72
0.2
99
0.2
38
0.1
88
0.1
46
0.1
13
0.0
87
0.0
67
3
Hit
s
0.6
82
0.5
91
0.5
04
0.4
24
0.3

06
4
Hit
s
0.2
66
0.2
03
0.1
54
0.1
16
0.0
86
0.0
64
0.0
47
0.0
35
0.0
25
0.0
18
4
Hit
s
0.4
09
0.3
30
0.2
63
0.2
08
0.1

01
5
Hit
s
0.0
78
0.0
56
0.0
39
0.0
28
0.0
20
0.0
14
0.0
10
0.0
07
0.0
05
0.0
03
5
Hit
s
0.1
72
0.1
29
0.0
97
0.0
72
0.0

6
Hit
s
0.0
10
0.0
07
0.0
05
0.0
03
0.0
02
0.0
01
0.0
01
0.0
01
0.0
00
0.0
00
6
Hit
s
0.0
44
0.0
31
0.0
22
0.0
15
0.0

7
Hit
s
0.0
05
0.0
03
0.0
02
0.0
02
0.0

10

86
0.7
18
0.6
47
0.5
76
0.5
06
0.4
40

Def
Atta
1
ens
ck
Hit
e
0.9
8
1
86
0.9
8
2
67
0.9
8
3
38
0.8
8
4
99
0.8
8
5
51
0.7
8
6
95
0.7
8
7
34
0.6
8
8
70
0.6
8
9
03
0.5
8 10
38
Atta Def 1
ck ens Hit

83
0.5
06
0.4
33
0.3
67
0.3
07
0.2
55
2
Hit
s
0.9
28
0.8
80
0.8
21
0.7
55
0.6
84
0.6
12
0.5
40
0.4
71
0.4
07
0.3
48
2
Hit

52
0.2
89
0.2
34
0.1
89
0.1
50
0.1
19
3
Hit
s
0.7
83
0.7
04
0.6
23
0.5
43
0.4
67
0.3
97
0.3
34
0.2
78
0.2
29
0.1
87
3
Hit

62
0.1
26
0.0
97
0.0
74
0.0
56
0.0
43
4
Hit
s
0.5
46
0.4
61
0.3
84
0.3
16
0.2
57
0.2
07
0.1
66
0.1
31
0.1
03
0.0
81
4
Hit

53
0.0
39
0.0
28
0.0
21
0.0
15
0.0
11
5
Hit
s
0.2
90
0.2
30
0.1
80
0.1
40
0.1
08
0.0
82
0.0
63
0.0
47
0.0
36
0.0
27
5
Hit

11
0.0
08
0.0
05
0.0
04
0.0
03
0.0
02
6
Hit
s
0.1
08
0.0
80
0.0
59
0.0
44
0.0
32
0.0
23
0.0
17
0.0
12
0.0
09
0.0
06
6
Hit

01
0.0
01
0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
00
7
Hit
s
0.0
25
0.0
17
0.0
12
0.0
08
0.0
06
0.0
04
0.0
03
0.0
02
0.0
01
0.0
01
7
Hit

8
Hit
s
0.0
03
0.0
02
0.0
01
0.0
01
0.0
01
0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
00
8
9
Hit Hit

e
9

10

0.9
92
0.9
80
0.9
61
0.9
34
0.8
98
0.8
55
0.8
04
0.7
49
0.6
89
0.6
28

Def
Atta
1
ens
ck
Hit
e
0.9
10
1
96
0.9
10
2
89
0.9
10
3
76
0.9
10
4
58
0.9
10
5
32
0.8
10
6
99

s
0.9
57
0.9
23
0.8
79
0.8
27
0.7
68
0.7
04
0.6
37
0.5
70
0.5
05
0.4
43
2
Hit
s
0.9
75
0.9
52
0.9
20
0.8
80
0.8
33
0.7
79

s
0.8
55
0.7
92
0.7
22
0.6
49
0.5
76
0.5
04
0.4
37
0.3
75
0.3
18
0.2
67
3
Hit
s
0.9
06
0.8
57
0.8
01
0.7
38
0.6
72
0.6
04

s
0.6
64
0.5
82
0.5
03
0.4
29
0.3
62
0.3
02
0.2
50
0.2
05
0.1
66
0.1
34
4
Hit
s
0.7
60
0.6
87
0.6
12
0.5
39
0.4
69
0.4
03

s
0.4
18
0.3
45
0.2
82
0.2
28
0.1
82
0.1
45
0.1
14
0.0
89
0.0
69
0.0
54
5
Hit
s
0.5
41
0.4
64
0.3
92
0.3
28
0.2
72
0.2
23

s
0.1
99
0.1
55
0.1
20
0.0
92
0.0
70
0.0
53
0.0
40
0.0
30
0.0
22
0.0
17
6
Hit
s
0.3
09
0.2
50
0.2
01
0.1
60
0.1
26
0.0
99

s
0.0
66
0.0
49
0.0
36
0.0
26
0.0
19
0.0
14
0.0
10
0.0
07
0.0
05
0.0
04
7
Hit
s
0.1
33
0.1
02
0.0
78
0.0
59
0.0
44
0.0
33

s
0.0
14
0.0
10
0.0
07
0.0
05
0.0
03
0.0
02
0.0
02
0.0
01
0.0
01
0.0
01
8
Hit
s
0.0
40
0.0
29
0.0
21
0.0
15
0.0
11
0.0
08

s
0.0
01
0.0
01
0.0
01
0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
00
9
Hit
s
0.0
07
0.0
05
0.0
04
0.0
03
0.0
02
0.0
01

10
Hit
s
0.0
01
0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
00

10
10
10
10

0.8
59
0.8
8
13
0.7
9
62
0.7
10
07
7

0.7
21
0.6
60
0.5
97
0.5
35

0.5
37
0.4
73
0.4
12
0.3
55

0.3
43
0.2
90
0.2
42
0.2
01

0.1
82
0.1
47
0.1
18
0.0
94

0.0
77
0.0
60
0.0
46
0.0
35

0.0
25
0.0
18
0.0
14
0.0
10

0.0
06
0.0
04
0.0
03
0.0
02

0.0
01
0.0
01
0.0
00
0.0
00

0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
00