Topic Two: In what ways are food security, water security and energy security linked

with the current and projected effects of climate change? What, for instance, are the
social, political and economic consequences of resource scarcity and/or inequitable
access to resources?
Climate change, demographics, water, food, energy, global health, women's empowerment these issues are all intertwined. We cannot look at one strand in isolation. Instead, we must
examine how these strands are woven together, said Ban Ki Moon. Food, water, and energy
insecurity has always posed a problem to communities worldwide. These issues have been
acknowledged by world leaders and plans such as the United Nations Millennium Development
Goal have been set in response. However, climate change serves as an obstacle in achieving
these goals. Current climate change has already been shown to aggravate food, water and energy
insecurity, especially in developing countries. If climate change is left unmitigated, there can be
no end to these global issues. Food and water security are especially vulnerable to even the
slightest of deviations in climate. Also, not every country is equally vulnerable to these issues.
Although he impacts of climate change on food production and food availability are expected to
be widespread, complex, and geographically and temporally variable; the wealth-gap between
developed and developing countries will make a profound difference in the ability of each
country to deal with food scarcity.
Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an
active and. healthy life. (World Food Summit, 1996) Food security is comprised of four pillars:
availability, access, utilization and stability. Climate change threatens to exacerbate all
dimensions of food security and nutrition, mainly availability and access to food.
Food availability is defined as sufficient quantities of food of appropriate quality, supplied
through domestic production or imports, including food aid (FAO 2011). Climate change has a
negative impact on a countrys ability to produce and acquire food. Today, the effects of climate
change on food availability are already evident and further deviations in climate poses to worsen
this issue. Climate change causes an increase in mean temperatures and also a shift in rainfall
patterns which will reduce crop quality and yields. In Indonesia, rice crops are considered to be
staple and for every 1C increase in temperatures, rice crop yields will fall by 10% (Peng et al.,
2004). A study in 2004 suggests that under future climatic conditions, there will be a 30 days
delay in the monsoon season, which when paired with the increase in temperature, will result in
large yield drops (Spector). As for livestock productions, similar results can be expected. Rising
temperatures will increase the temperature-humidity-index, which is a measure of heat stress on
farm animals (Jinny Collet). However, climate change has been shown to increase the yields of
certain crops in some regions of the world. Across a range of Free-Air Carbon dioxide
Enrichment (FACE) experiments, it was shown that various species of plants grew better at
elevated CO2 concentrations of 475600 by increasing the rate of photosynthesis by 40%
(Ainsworth & Rogers 2007). But the net impact of climate change will be negative. (Oxfam)

Overall annual precipitation in Indonesia has decreased by 2 to 3% in Indonesia over the past
century (Case, Ardiansyah and Spector, 2007, p. 5). The effects however are not spread out
evenly with an increase in annual rainfall in the northern regions of Indonesia (most of
Kalimantan, North Sulawesi) and a decrease in annual rainfall in the southern regions of
Indonesia (Java, Lampung, South Sumatra, South Sulawesi, and Nusa Tenggara) (Spector). This
imbalance will lead to prolonged droughts in the southern areas while at the same time
increasing the frequency of flooding in the northern areas. Both floods and droughts will lead to
major agricultural losses. Droughts are periods of time where there is insufficient water for
growing crops and farming animals, while floods are periods when there is an overflow of water
and this limits the oxygen crops can receive by both depleting the soil of oxygen and submerging
plant leaves so it blocks oxygen exchange. Precipitation in Indonesia is also affected by El Nio
Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO consists of the 3 phases: El Nino, La Nina and Neutral
Phase. El Nino causes ocean warming and this is associated with droughts in Indonesia while La
Nina causes ocean surface cooling and this is linked with excessive rainfall. Although ENSO is
considered to be a naturally occurring phenomena, research suggests that global warming will
induce more frequent and intense El Ninos which will cause more droughts. Because climate
change increases the rates of these extreme weather events, it will adversely affect a countrys
ability to produce food.
Simply producing sufficient food is not enough to guarantee food security. As it stands there is an
adequate amount of food to feed the world (Gimenez, 2012), but 10.7% of the worlds
population, or roughly 795 million people, still remain hungry (wfp). Food security does not
solely encompass availability, but is also dependent on peoples ability to acquire food by having
enough resources. Climate change threatens to increase the price of agriculture products,
especially crops, in some regions. The poorer population spends up to 75% of their income on
food expenses (Carty & Magrath, 2013, p.9), an increase in prices would mean having to

sacrifice additional income and resources. By around 2030, using international trade models, it
predicted that food prices may more than double compared with 2010 prices if climate change is
left unmitigated. Current effects on prices are already observed in some countries. In Indonesia,
the price of chili peppers, also a staple, has increased by 5 fold over the period of 2010-2011.
The increase in price is associated with pests and bad weather events, and both are made more
likely due to climate change. Climate change not only causes an increase in the baseline price of
food, but also price spikes due to weather-related shocks such as droughts and floods. These
price spikes can determine if a family has sufficient funds to afford food for that particular period
of time. In Indonesia however, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Hatta Rajasa claimed
that despite frequent floods, there are no food shortages, therefore there is no major increase in
food prices
Extreme weather events may not only alter food prices, but it can affect an individuals ability to
earn a living and to obtain food for their family (Oxfam). A report by the National Economic
and Social Development Board in Thailand claimed that agricultural employment fell by
17.5% or 2.86 million jobs in 2013 due to drought and floods. When farmlands are
experiencing droughts and floods, there is significantly less crops to be harvested, thus it
lowers the need for employment. Although climate change will have a global impact, those
in the agriculture sector will be more vulnerable to deviations in the climate. 2.5 out of the 3
billion people who live in rural areas in developing countries are involved in agriculture
(Oxfam). Families or individuals in this population would be hit twice as hard by climate
change as the prices of food will increase while their ability to earn a living decreases.
Farmers would lose income due to destroyed crops or damaged infrastructure and
individuals may lose their jobs so they are stripped away from their steady source of income.
Though climate change hits developing countries the hardest, this does not exclude developed
countries. In Australia, Food prices during the 2005- 2007 drought increased at twice the rate of
the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and this adversely impacted fresh fruits and vegetables,
increasing 43% and 33% respectively (CC). Also, reduced rainfall in parts of Western Australia
and central Queensland are projected to reduce total national crop production by 12% in 2014-15
(CC). Although both Indonesia and Australia are experiencing climate change, one country fares
better than the other. The main reason behind this difference is that Indonesia, a developing
country, is much more vulnerable when compared to Australia, a developed country. One
possible reason is that a developing country relies more on agriculture, which is sensitive to
climate, for economic growth. Both the government and civilians in Australia have a better
adaptive capacity to respond to the effects of climate change when compared to Indonesia and
that is due to the wealth-gap. Money is considered to be a good measure of adaptive capacity as
if a family has sufficient funds, they are capable of surviving periods of baseline increases in
food prices or price spikes.
Food utilization is defined by USAID as: Food is properly used; proper food processing
and storage techniques are employed; adequate knowledge of nutrition and child care
techniques exists and is applied; and adequate health and sanitation services exist.
Climate change threatens this aspect of food security mainly via increased frequency of
extreme weather events. For example, floods will reduce crop quality and seafood
products due to the introduction of excess sediment and nutrients, and pollutants such as

chemicals, heavy metals and debris into aquamarine environments (quote). This will reduce
the amount of nutritional value of the food and may even confer disease-bearing parasites.
During floods, there is a higher risk of disease transmission due to the increase in the
number of disease-vectors such as mosquitoes. An ill person may not fully benefit from the
nutrients as he/she may not be able to digest the food properly (Oxfam). This poses a major
problem to the poorer population as they are hardly getting by as it is and adding medical
expenses to treat diseases would take up most of their income. This therefore, creates a
vicious cycle of disease and hunger, and with most of the solutions being based on money, it
is incredibly difficult to escape this poverty loop. Food system stability is determined by the
temporal availability of, and access to, food. (fao) This pillar of food security is determined
by the previous pillars mentioned. Climate change increases shock and uncertainty
pertaining food availability, access and utilization. The disruption of the 1st 3 elements of
food security will determine its impact on the stability aspect.
Based on the examples above, climate change will decrease yields from agriculture while
increasing the market price of food, hence making it less accessible to the poor population.
Resource scarcity would have adverse impacts on economic and regional instability. The Middle
East and North Africa are 2 regions where there is little arable land and scarce water supplies
(Scientific American). Due to unfavorable growing conditions, countries in these regions import
as much as 50% of their food (Ecomena). Such countries that depend heavily on imports are
vulnerable to fluctuations in food prices of other countries. In 2010, there were droughts in
China, Argentina, Ukraine and Russia and torrential storms in Canada, Australia and Brazil; all
of which are major wheat and grain producers. With the Middle East already dealing with
internal sociopolitical, economic and climatic tensions, the spikes in prices exacerbated the
issues (Scientific American). It is considered by some to have catalyzed and triggered the start of
the many anti-government protests known as the Arab Spring, however it cant be argued that
increases in food prices is the sole reason. Others may claim that the Arab Spring would have
happened regardless (Whyfiles), but global warming may have upstarted the Arab Spring sooner
(SA). This shows that when food scarcity occurs, there can be multiple countries affected and
that creates difficult problems as a country that depends heavily on imports already loses some of
its GDP in the agricultural sector and the price of importing food also increasing due to other
countries facing similar issues.
Climate change aims to increase the frequency of shortages by affecting the 4 pillars of food
security mentioned above. Food shortage is often associated with malnutrition, which slow
economic growth. With the poor population struggling to survive, they will rarely be able to
afford education that is required to escape the poverty cycle. So the options for jobs are usually
limited to low-skill jobs that require a lot of physical work, but malnutrition prevents proper
development of the body and thus this further hinders an individuals ability to acquire income to
afford food. A country with a low skill-level workforce will have delayed development and
accordingly have less GDP. Research shows that the economic cost of malnutrition is ranged
around 2-3% of a countrys GDP.
In conclusion, climate change has a global impact, no country is safe from it but
each country responds to it differently according to their overall vulnerabilities.
Though conferring minor benefits to crop growth, overall, the effects of climate

change threatens to mainly exacerbate food security by affecting all 4 pillars.

Developing countries will struggle the most due to their desire to try and catch up
with developed countries but at the same time having to deal with the issues posed
by food insecurity. Resource scarcity may result in riots and protests and also deter
a countrys progress in economic growth.