Tutorial 07: Solutions

Part A:
For all your answers, please remember to do the following:
1. Draw curves
2. State the distribution
3. Define the variable

A7.1
An automatic machine in a manufacturing process is operating properly if the
lengths of an important subcomponent are normally distributed, with mean = 117
cm and standard deviation = 2.1 cm.
If the machine is operating correctly:
Let X = variable length of subcomponent (cm).
Then if the machine is operating correctly, X ~ N (117, 2.12 ) .
(i)

find the probability that one randomly selected unit has a length greater
than 120 cm;

120 117
) = P( Z > 1.4286) P( Z > 1.43)

2.1
= 1 P( Z < 1.43) = 1 0.9236 = 0.0764
X:
P( X > 120) = P(

>

Alternative solution: P ( Z > 1.43) = P ( Z < 1.43) = 0.0764

(ii)

Z:

117

120

1.43

find the probability that if three units are randomly selected, their mean
length exceeds 120 cm;

Let

X = mean length (cm), then

2 . 12
X ~ N 117 ,
3

P(X > 120) = P(

X X 120 117
120 117
>
) = P(Z >
) = P(Z > 2.4744)

2.1
1.2124
n
3

X:

117

120

Z:

2.474

Using symmetry of curve, and then tables we find

P ( Z > 2.47) = P ( Z < 2.47) = 0.0068 0.007

(iii)

explain the differences between parts (i) and (ii).

In (i) we are considering the probability that a single item is longer than 120cm.
The answer is about 0.076.
In (ii) we are considering three separate items, but the question is whether their
mean length is greater than 120cm. This will certainly happen if all three are
longer than 120cm, but it can also happen when one or two are shorter than
120, so long as the average is above. However the mean is less variable than
individual values, so the probability of the mean being above 120cm will be
lower than the probability for an individual item.

Part B:

B7.2
A statistical analyst who works for a large insurance company is in the process of
examining several pension plans. Company records show that the age at which
its male clients retire is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 63.7
years and a standard deviation of 3.1 years.
Let X=the retirement age (years).

X ~ N (63.7,3.12 )
(a) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected male client will retire before
the age of 65 years.
P(X < 65) = P(

X 65 63.7
<
) = P(Z < 0.42) = 0.6628

3.1

where Z is a standard normal variable.

X:
Z:

63.7 65
0 0.42

(b) If a random sample of 50 male clients is to be selected from the company

database, what is the probability that the sample mean will be less than 65
years?
LetX = the mean retirement age (years).

X ~ N (63.7,

3.12
)
50
:
Z:

63.7
0

65
2.96

P(X < 65) = P(

X X 65 63.7
<
)

3.1
n
50

= P(Z < 2.96) = 0.9985

(in other words, almost certain.)
(c) Close examination of the ages of recent retirees shows that the assumption
of a normal distribution may be false.
Which, if either, of your answers above would be changed by this
information, and why?
The assumption of a normal distribution was important in part (a) but not in part (b),
because the central limit theorem tells us that for a large enough sample, (at least
30) X will be approximately normally distributed.