Dutertes Foreign Policy Shift Seen

As Taradiddle
October 09, 2016 at 12:01 am
Honor Blanco Cabie

IMMEDIATELY after President Rodrigo Duterte ended his sentence that he

would soon end joint military exercises with the United States, Washington
said, like some thunderclap chasing a lightning bolt, that Philippine-US
relations are ironclad.
In San Diego, California, Pentagon chief Ashton Carter said Washingtons
alliance with Manila, its closest ally in Southeast Asia, remained unwavering
despite Dutertes statement to make matters up with China.
On Sept. 28, the 71-year-old Duterte said he would soon end joint military
exercises with the United States, in what political observers call a symbolic
blow to a military alliance dating back more than 60 years.
He made the statement before several Vietnam-based Filipinos in Hanoi, in
his usual circuitous style, at the start of a two-day official visit.
Duterte said: I will serve notice to [the Americans] now, that this [military war
games in October] will be the last military exercise, jointly Philippine-US, the
last one.
Senior presidential aides had been blowing a fuse downplaying the
Presidents appearingly tough stance.
But he repeated the statement on his return to Davao City, adding the
previous joint exercises did not result in technology transfer from the US
military.
Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay and National Security Adviser Hermogenes
Esperon Jr. separately dashed, resembling the speed of Lydia de Vega in her
prime, to clarify the Presidents remarks.
Yasay, who returned recently from the United Nations in New York, told
reporters covering Dutertes working visit the President did not say that at
all, stressing You have to understand the Presidents statements in the
context of what he was saying.
What Yasay pushed forward was that Dutertes statements were delivered in a
specific context.
That context, according to him, was the Presidents earlier declaration there
would no longer be joint military patrols at the West Philippine Sea to avoid
provoking other claimants to the disputed waters.

A context, according to political and diplomatic observers, despite the decision

of the United Nations Arbitral Tribunal, after several months of hearings and
submission of documents, that the Philippines has exclusive sovereign rights
over the West Philippine Sea (in the South China Sea) and that the ninedash line of China, which was absent throughout the proceedings and
refused to recognize the case, is invalid.
At a news conference in Manila, Yasay went to great lengths to explain that
decisions on joint exercises between Washington and Manila were made by
the Philippine-US Mutual Defense Board, which recommended to Dutertes
predecessor administration the continuation of war games up to 2017,
stressing this could be reviewed by the Duterte administration after next year.
Esperon himself told reporters in Hanoi the President merely meant to stress
this months military exercise would be the last for the year.
It appears, based on statements from the US State Department, that the
Philippines has yet to officially communicate Dutertes decision. What has
been clear is what US Deparment of State spokesperson John Kirby said
Washington remains hopeful in moving its ties with Manila forward and that
the latter will remain committed to meeting significant security obligations.
Then in a speech early this month in Bacolod City, Duterte continued his
attack on the United States by threatening to junk the countrys Enhanced
Defense Cooperation Agreement (Edca) with the US, a pact that allows
American forces to conduct activities on agreed locations inside Philippine
military bases.
But while the Presidents key men try to explain the formers statements, the
Communist Party of the Philippines, which resumes peace talks with the
Philippine government in Oslo, Norway in the second week of October, has
hailed Dutertes statements.
It said as the Duterte administration tries to promote an independent foreign
policy, such war maneuver exercises by US troops are completely
anachronistic and should be put to a permanent end.
But while the CPP was getting its statement printed by local and foreign
media, the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines said a stronger military
cooperation between Manila and Beijing was in the wind. Interestingly, some
political observers have noted the soft-pedalled reaction of the CPP to the
Chinese ambassadors statement.
Zhao had said the Chinese and Philippine militaries need to talk to each
other to enhance trust and mutual confidence to avoid incidents of
misunderstanding...
That followed Dutertes announced plans to buy arms from China and Russia,
which would allow Moscow and Beijing to have a toehold in the Philippine
arms market, in which 75 percent of weapons come from Washington.

The line of Duterte, scheduled to visit China in the third week of October, is
that Moscow and Beijing have agreed to 25-year soft loans that would allow
Manila to purchase weapons. But some diplomatic and political analysts say
Duterte does not have to veer away from its weathered ally or use expletiveladen claptrap lines.
Since the Philippines took the One-China Policyestablishing formal links
with Beijing and dropping ties with Taipei in 1975there have been several
bilateral exchanges in the different fields.
Ditto with Russia, with which the Philippines forged diplomatic bonds in 1976,
without, some analysts are saying, Duterte having to antagonize its major ally
the United States.
Former Senator Francisco Tatad himself has asked what analysts consider a
relevant question. Asks Tatad: When DU30 says he wants to move closer to
China and Russia and away from the US, what is he prepared to give to the
two countries and take away from the third?
In Tatads view, shared by fervid political observers, Duterte seems to have
the impression that prior to June 30 this year we had no working relations with
China and Russia, and that his arrival alone will open a new path.
Thats bulls eye or dead center, according to observers of the political and
diplomatic theater, who say the declared shift is pure bunk or taradiddle.