Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
2016
Undergraduate study in
Economics, Management,
Finance and the Social Sciences
This subject guide is for a 100 course offered as part of the University of London
International Programmes in Economics, Management, Finance and the Social Sciences.
This is equivalent to Level 4 within the Framework for Higher Education Qualifications in
England, Wales and Northern Ireland (FHEQ).
For more information about the University of London International Programmes
undergraduate study in Economics, Management, Finance and the Social Sciences, see:
www.londoninternational.ac.uk
This guide was prepared for the University of London International Programmes by:
O. Birchall, The London School of Economics and Political Science, assisted by D. Verry, The
London School of Economics and Political Science.
This is one of a series of subject guides published by the University. We regret that due
to pressure of work the authors are unable to enter into any correspondence relating to,
or arising from, the guide. If you have any comments on this subject guide, favourable or
unfavourable, please use the form at the back of this guide.
Contents
Contents
Introduction............................................................................................................. 1
Introduction to the subject area...................................................................................... 1
Aims of the course.......................................................................................................... 1
Learning outcomes......................................................................................................... 2
Overview of learning resources....................................................................................... 2
Route map to the guide.................................................................................................. 4
Study advice................................................................................................................... 6
Use of mathematics........................................................................................................ 7
Examination advice........................................................................................................ 7
Block 1: Economics, the economy and tools of economic analysis......................... 9
Introduction................................................................................................................... 9
Scarcity........................................................................................................................ 12
Rationality.................................................................................................................... 13
The production possibility frontier (PPF)......................................................................... 13
Opportunity cost and absolute and comparative advantage........................................... 15
Markets........................................................................................................................ 16
Microeconomics and macroeconomics.......................................................................... 18
A note on mathematics................................................................................................ 18
Models and theory........................................................................................................ 19
Criticisms of economics ............................................................................................... 22
Overview...................................................................................................................... 22
Reminder of learning outcomes.................................................................................... 23
Sample examination questions...................................................................................... 23
Block 2: Demand, supply and the market.............................................................. 25
Introduction................................................................................................................. 25
Equilibrium................................................................................................................... 26
Demand and supply curves........................................................................................... 27
Shifts in the demand and supply curves......................................................................... 28
Consumer and producer surplus.................................................................................... 29
Overview...................................................................................................................... 32
Reminder of learning outcomes.................................................................................... 32
Sample examination questions...................................................................................... 32
Block 3: Elasticity ................................................................................................. 35
Introduction................................................................................................................. 35
Price elasticity of demand ............................................................................................ 36
Cross-price elasticity of demand.................................................................................... 39
Income elasticity of demand......................................................................................... 40
Price elasticity of supply................................................................................................ 41
Incidence of a tax ........................................................................................................ 41
Overview...................................................................................................................... 43
Reminder of learning outcomes.................................................................................... 43
Sample examination questions...................................................................................... 43
Contents
Oligopoly................................................................................................................... 114
Game theory.............................................................................................................. 115
Models of oligopoly.................................................................................................... 116
Reminder of learning outcomes.................................................................................. 120
Sample examination questions.................................................................................... 120
Block 10: The labour market................................................................................ 123
Introduction............................................................................................................... 123
The factors of production............................................................................................ 124
Analysis of the labour market...................................................................................... 125
Labour supply............................................................................................................. 127
Labour market equilibrium ......................................................................................... 128
Disequilibrium in the labour market............................................................................ 130
Wage discrimination................................................................................................... 131
Overview.................................................................................................................... 131
Reminder of learning outcomes.................................................................................. 132
Sample examination questions.................................................................................... 132
Block 11: Welfare economics............................................................................... 135
Introduction............................................................................................................... 135
Equity and efficiency................................................................................................... 136
Distortion of the market.............................................................................................. 141
Sources of market failure............................................................................................ 141
Overview.................................................................................................................... 145
Reminder of learning outcomes.................................................................................. 145
Sample examination questions.................................................................................... 145
Block 12: The role of government....................................................................... 147
Introduction............................................................................................................... 147
Government functions................................................................................................ 148
Taxation..................................................................................................................... 148
Public goods............................................................................................................... 150
Merit and demerit goods............................................................................................ 151
Transfer payments and income redistribution............................................................... 151
Principles of taxation.................................................................................................. 153
Local government....................................................................................................... 155
Impact of globalisation............................................................................................... 155
Political economy........................................................................................................ 155
Overview.................................................................................................................... 155
Reminder of learning outcomes.................................................................................. 156
Sample examination questions.................................................................................... 156
Block 13: Introduction to macroeconomics......................................................... 159
Introduction............................................................................................................... 159
Macroeconomic analysis............................................................................................. 160
The circular flow of income......................................................................................... 160
Measuring GDP.......................................................................................................... 161
Overview.................................................................................................................... 164
Reminder of learning outcomes.................................................................................. 165
Sample examination questions ................................................................................... 165
Block 14: Output and aggregate demand........................................................... 169
Introduction............................................................................................................... 169
Components of aggregate demand: consumption and investment............................... 170
Equilibrium output...................................................................................................... 171
iii
Contents
Notes
vi
Introduction
Introduction
Introduction to the subject area
Every day people make decisions that belong within the realm of
economics. What to buy? What to make and sell? How many hours to
work? We have all participated in the economy as consumers, many of us
as workers, some of us also as producers. We have paid taxes. We have
saved our earnings in a bank account. All of these activities (and many
more) belong to the realm of economics. Households and firms are the
basic units of an economy and are concerned with the economic problem:
how best to satisfy unlimited wants using the limited resources that are
available? As such, economics is the study of how society uses its scarce
resources. Its aim is to provide insight into the processes governing the
production, distribution and consumption of goods and services in an
exchange economy.
The previous paragraph could be taken to imply that the realm of
economics is limited and clearly defined. However, if economics is
viewed as a way of thinking, or a set of tools that can be used to analyse
human behaviour and the world around us, then you will find that the
principles of economics can be applied to many different areas of life. The
scope is thus very broad, but the principles of analysis are well defined
and these are what you will become familiar with through undertaking
this course. Although the course provides some information that is
descriptive, such as how the banking system works, for example, its main
focus is on introducing models and concepts which are used as tools of
economic analysis. Concepts such as opportunity cost and approaches
such as marginal analysis can be widely applied and prove very useful in
understanding various aspects of society and peoples lives.
Studying economics doesnt just impart knowledge; it also develops
skills such as logical and analytical thinking and problem-solving skills,
which are useful beyond the formal study of economics. For some of you,
economics is not the main area of study, and you may not be intending
to pursue a career as an economist. However, we are sure that an
understanding of basic economic concepts will still prove useful to you in
whatever direction your studies and subsequent career may take.
Learning outcomes
At the end of the course and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
define the main concepts and describe the models and methods used
in economic analysis
formulate real world issues in the language of economic modelling
apply and use economic models to analyse these issues
assess the potential and limitations of the models and methods used in
economic analysis.
Primary textbook
Begg, D., G. Vernasca, S. Fischer and R. Dornbusch Economics. (London: McGraw
Hill, 2014) 11th edition [ISBN 9780077154516]. Referred to as BVFD.
Supplementary textbooks
Lipsey, R.G. and K.A. Chrystal Economics. (Oxford: Oxford University Press,
2015) 13th edition [ISBN 9780198746577] international edition;
[ISBN9780199676835] UK edition. Referred to as L&C.
Witztum, A. Economics. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005)
[ISBN 9780199271634]. Referred to as AW.
Introduction
One key aim of the guide is to encourage active engagement with the
material, as this is how you will really gain a good understanding. For
example, many of the models which will be covered in this course are
expressed graphically and the subject guide contains empty boxes where
you can practise drawing these graphs. It is very difficult to understand
and remember graphs just by looking at them, so you will need to practise
drawing them for yourself. For more complex graphs in later chapters,
you could even practise using blank paper and then, when you are
confident, draw the graph in the empty box in the subject guide. You are
also encouraged to actively undertake the other activities and questions
in the subject guide. Answers to these are available on the virtual learning
environment (VLE).
The subject guide and the primary textbook must be used together. The
guide will not make much sense without the textbook. Equally, do not be
tempted to neglect the guide and just focus on the textbook. You need to
be aware that the subject guide not only seeks to complement and clarify
the contents of the textbook, but also to extend it in certain places. For the
final examination, you will need to be familiar with the material in both
the textbook and the subject guide. The textbook chapters that are not
covered in the guide, and are not examinable, are: Chapters 11 (except
for section 11.9), 12, 26, 29. We hope that this guide will help you as you
work through the textbook and that you will find it useful in your studies.
The VLE
The VLE, which complements this subject guide, has been designed to
enhance your learning experience, providing additional support and a
sense of community. It forms an important part of your study experience
with the University of London and you should access it regularly.
The VLE provides a range of resources for EMFSS courses:
Electronic study materials: All of the printed materials which you
receive from the University of London are available to download, to
give you flexibility in how and where you study.
Discussion forums: An open space for you to discuss interests
and seek support from your peers, working collaboratively to solve
problems and discuss subject material. Some forums are moderated by
an LSE academic.
Introduction
should be clear to the reader that this refers to Chapter 12 of the textbook
(BVFD).
Breakdown of readings for each block:
Microeconomics
Block
10
11
12
Chapter
1, 2
7.3
7.9
8.1
8.4
8.5
8.10
10
13
14;
11.9
Macroeconomics
Block
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Chapter
15
16, 17
18, 19
20
21
22
23
24
25
27
28
Specific topics and concepts to be covered are as follows: This differs from
the syllabus only in the order that topics are listed. The full syllabus can be
found in Appendix 1.
Block 1
Microeconomics
Block 2
Block 3
Block 4
Block 5
The Firm I: the firm, profit maximisation, marginal cost and marginal revenue,
technology and production functions, returns to scale, the law of diminishing
marginal returns, isoquants and isocost lines.
Block 6
The Firm II: cost functions, the distinction between the long and the short-run,
fixed and variable costs, behaviour of the firm in the long and in the short-run,
the firms supply function.
Block 7
Block 8
Block 9
Block 10
Block 11
Block 12
Macroeconomics
Block 13
Block 14
Block 15
Money and banking: the role of money, real balances, the liquidity
preference approach and the demand for money (liquid assets), commercial
banks and the supply of money (banks and the various multipliers), central
banks and monetary control, equilibrium in the money market.
Block 16
Block 17
Block 18
Inflation: inflation targeting, the Taylor rule, the quantity theory of money,
the Phillips curve in the long-run and the short-run, stagflation and the role of
expectations, costs of inflation
Block 19
Block 20
Block 21
Block 22
Business cycles: trend path and business cycles, theories of the business
cycle, real business cycles
Block 23
Study advice
The British education system, possibly more than others, and economics as
a subject, possibly more than others, both emphasise understanding above
rote learning (learning by heart). It is very difficult (if not impossible)
to do well in economics examinations simply by rote learning. A much
better strategy is to try to gain a good understanding of the concepts and
the models. Although this may involve more work in the short term, the
final outcome will be much better, and the examination much easier. For
example, many of the models we will cover can be summarised in a single
graph or set of equations. You will need to be able to use these graphs to
demonstrate the effects of changes in the economic environment to which
the model relates. This is very difficult to do well through memorisation,
but if you understand why the different lines of the graph are drawn
in that particular way or what a particular equation represents, then
adjusting the graph or modifying the equations will become a relatively
simple and straightforward exercise.
6
Introduction
The textbook, which the subject guide accompanies, assumes that you
havent done any economics before and starts from the basics. It gives a
good explanation of all concepts and uses examples to make these new
concepts intuitive. It also includes material to stretch you, including
Maths boxes. You are required to really master this textbook, including
the Maths boxes and more challenging elements. If there are sections
which are difficult to understand at first, you may find that reading these
through several times is very helpful. In certain places, the subject guide
will also seek to extend the textbook if there are areas where it does not
go far enough. Although you will find the textbook approach of starting
at a fairly basic level very useful, you should expect the examination to
be quite rigorous. For example, examination questions are likely to be
similar to the hard questions in the review questions at the end of each
chapter. In this way, we hope to help you really lay a firm foundation of
understanding in economics, and at the same time demonstrate the high
standard that is expected of you as University of London students.
Use of mathematics
Economic models can be expressed in various ways, in words, in diagrams
and in equations. Although this course mainly uses diagrammatic
representations accompanied by words, simple equations can also be
a concise way of expressing an economic model, and you will need to
become familiar with this approach. At this stage, the maths involved
will be limited to simple algebra and elementary calculus. Some basic
mathematical techniques and ideas will be also introduced in the first
block. It is important to work through the Maths boxes in each chapter,
as these often provide a step-by-step explanation of the mathematical
approach to the models covered. The subject guide will also provide
further explanations where we think this will be helpful. Economics is
becoming an increasingly technical subject and, although the level of
mathematics required for this course is quite basic, we hope that you
will become confident in taking a mathematical approach to analysing
economic issues.
Examination advice
Important: the information and advice given here are based on the
examination structure used at the time this guide was written. Please
note that subject guides may be used for several years. Because of this
we strongly advise you to always check both the current Programme
regulations for relevant information about the examination, and the VLE
where you should be advised of any forthcoming changes. You should also
carefully check the rubric/instructions on the paper you actually sit and
follow those instructions.
Examination structure: The structure for the 201617 examination is
as follows:
Part I
worth 50 marks
30 multiple choice questions covering the entire syllabus in
microeconomics and macroeconomics. Candidates should answer
all 30 multiple choice questions.
1
Lionel Robbins An
essay on the nature and
significance of economic
science. (London:
Macmillan, 1932, 2nd
edition 2014) p.16.
Although the definitions above may appear abstract, economics deals with
phenomena you will be very familiar with from your daily activities, and
provides tools and a language to analyse these. While it is not the only
language available, we hope it will prove useful to you.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
recognise economics as the study of how society addresses the conflict
between unlimited desires and scarce resources
describe ways in which society decides what, how and for whom to
produce
identify the opportunity cost of a decision or action
explain the difference between positive and normative economics
define microeconomics and macroeconomics
explain why theories deliberately simplify reality
recognise time-series, cross section and panel data
construct index numbers
explain the difference between real and nominal variables
build a simple theoretical model
plot data and interpret scatter diagrams
use other things equal to ignore, but not forget, some aspects of a
problem in order to focus on core issues.
10
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapters 1 and 2.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapter 1; UK edition,
Chapter1.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 1.
11
Scarcity
BVFD defines scarcity by saying: a resource is scarce if the demand for
that resource at a zero price would exceed the available supply. Since the
concepts of demand and supply have not yet been introduced to you, we
can also define scarcity by stating that the means available to society (its
labour force, its capital stock, its natural resources, its technology) are
insufficient to meet all the wants (or the desired goods and services) of the
people making up that society. This implies that for any one person to have
more of something, they or someone else must have less of something
else. In turn, this requires choice, both at the level of the individual agent
but also at the societal or collective level. How individuals and societies
cope with scarcity in relation to wants is central to economics. This course
concentrates on the market economy as the basic organisational principle
for coping with scarcity, but modified by governments to rectify market
shortcomings and to achieve distributional ends.
Opportunity cost
Related to scarcity is the concept of opportunity cost one of the key
concepts in economic analysis.
To cement your understanding of opportunity cost, complete the following
activity on this concept.
Activity SG1.1
a. Let us change the details of the problem in concept box 1.1. Suppose that there
were no jobs in the campus shop. The only job available, and this is the alternative
to going to the beach with your friends, is to work at the local fast food restaurant
clearing tables and washing dishes. This job also pays 70, but because of its general
unpleasantness you wouldnt do it unless you were paid at least 55. Should you go
to the beach or work at the fast food restaurant?
b. A high-end ladies fashion boutique purchases winter coats from a manufacturer at
a price of 300 per coat. During the winter the boutique will try to sell the coats at
a price higher than 300 but may not be able to sell all of the coats. Since they are
the latest fashion, no customers would be interested in buying the coats next season.
However, at the end of the winter, the manufacturer will pay the boutique 20% of the
original price for any unsold coats (and re-use the expensive fabrics they are made
from for the next years designs).
i. At the beginning of the year, before the boutique has purchased any coats, what
is the opportunity cost of these coats?
ii. After the boutique has purchased the coats, what is the opportunity cost
associated with selling a coat to a prospective customer? (You can assume the
coat will be unsold at the end of the winter if that customer doesnt buy the coat).
iii. Suppose towards the end of the winter the boutique still has a large inventory of
unsold coats. The boutique has set a retail price of 950 per coat. The marketing
manager argues that the boutique should cut the price to 199 to try to sell
the remaining coats before they become unfashionable at the end of the winter.
However, the general manager disagrees, arguing that would mean a loss of 101
on each coat. Which makes more economic sense the marketing managers
suggestion or the general managers argument?
BVFD: read section 1.2 and case 1.2.
This section raises various economic issues which you may be familiar with
through the news or other sources. It demonstrates what kinds of issues
economics deals with, although in the case of income distribution this is
12
often left to specialised courses. In each case, the authors demonstrate the
impact on the three key questions of what to produce, how to produce it
and for whom.
The global financial crisis of 200709 was a time of great disruption to
economies around the world and indeed to the world economy. As can
be seen in Figure 1.1 of the textbook, the US economy shrank at a faster
rate than had been seen since before the 1980s. The textbook will come
back to this period again and again to provide a fuller account of what
happened, why it happened, and how various countries reacted and to
use this period of recent economic history to illustrate and explain various
points of economic theory.
Rationality
BVFD: read concept box 1.2.
This concept box comes back to the idea of rationality, introduced in
section 1.1 of the textbook. In economics, people are assumed to act
rationally, using all available information to maximise their satisfaction.
In the real world, human behaviour is complex. The field of behavioural
economics examines human behaviour, especially when it appears to
depart from the assumption of rationality. Chapter two (covered in the
second part of this block) concludes with some criticisms of economics,
including the criticisms that people are not as mercenary as economists
think. In fact, depending on the task at hand, behaviour can be modelled
very simply, or in a more complex way to include various other factors,
including altruism. In some cases, even very simple models can go a long
way in explaining human behaviours. When these fail, more complex
elements can be included to make the model more realistic. Behavioural
economics indicates some ways that the simple assumption of rationality
can be extended to provide further insights into human behaviour.
13
14
3
For simplicity, we
assume all goods in the
economy are grouped
into two groups, or
that it is a two-good
economy.
Activity SG1.2
In the box below, draw a production possibility frontier, clearly marking the regions of
inefficient production, efficient production and unattainable production. Illustrate how the
slope of the PPF represents opportunity cost. Why is the frontier concave to the origin?
+
= 10
4
2
Be sure that you understand that for John we have the equation:
2T + C = 10
These equations will show the production possibilities for Jennifer and
John. They will help you in Activity SG1.3 which you should now attempt.
15
Activity SG1.3
a. Putting cakes on the horizontal axis and T-shirts on the vertical axis draw Jennifer and
Johns production possibility frontiers for a 10-hour working day.
b. In what way do these PPFs differ from that drawn in Figure 1.4? Why?
c. Write down the equations of these production possibility frontiers, making T (T-shirts)
a function of C (cakes).
d. What is the interpretation of the slope of these PPFs?
e. In your diagram what represents Jennifers absolute advantage in producing both
goods?
f. In your diagram what represents Johns comparative advantage in making cakes?
Country W
Shoes
12
Hats
Markets
BVFD: read section 1.4 and case 1.3 and complete activity 1.1.
As noted above, economics can be defined as the study of how societies
make choices on what, how and for whom to produce. As such, economics
is concerned with the organisation of economic activities in a society and
the institutional arrangements that will provide optimal answers to the
questions above. These institutional arrangements can be thought of as
existing along a continuum from, on the one hand, command economies,
where decisions are made centrally by the government planning office, to,
on the other hand, free market economies where decisions are taken by
individual agents driven by self-interest but organised by market forces as
by an invisible hand.
This section begins to explain how free markets can often bring about
efficient outcomes. In subsequent blocks we will discuss in much greater
detail, and with more rigour, how market forces guide resource allocation.
Although it is true that centrally planned economies (command economies)
16
17
A note on mathematics
In discussing the tools of economic analysis, this chapter, perhaps
surprisingly, has little to say in general terms about the role of mathematics
in economics. In its methods and approaches, if not its subject matter,
economics today is almost unrecognisable from the subject taught under
the same name 60 or 70 years ago. Of course, one wouldnt expect the
subject to stand still, but in this case the change has been dramatic. Today,
top universities require a high level of mathematical competence of their
students, even at undergraduate level (and even higher at postgraduate
level) while a cursory scan of the top economics journals might give the
impression that the subject is a branch of mathematics. It isnt. Correctly
used, mathematics in economics is a tool a means to an end not an
end in itself. Nevertheless, some have argued that the pervasiveness of
mathematics in modern economics has had damaging consequences both
on the development of the subject (with concentration on topics that lend
themselves to mathematical analysis and relative neglect of those that dont)
and on the ability of economists to communicate with non-economists,
often including those responsible for formulating economic policy.
Whether or not these criticisms are correct, it is highly unlikely that the
trend towards greater reliance on mathematical tools is likely to be reversed
in the near future. For those of you pursuing the subject beyond the
introductory level you will need to be prepared to use considerably more
18
Price year 1
Index year 2
Bread
80p
100
120p
150
Cheese
260p
100
312p
Sausages
300p
100
390p
Toothpaste
100p
100
80p
TOTAL
400/4
Overall index
100
The change in the overall index is the average rate of inflation. What was the rate of
inflation for these four products?
Inflation between year 1 and 2 __________________________?
However, the products in the price index are not equally important and should not be
given an equal weighting in the calculation of the index. That is why Weighted Index
Numbers are often used.
Of the four products above, which do you think represents the lowest proportion of a
familys total spending? Which represents the highest?
If toothpaste represents a small proportion of each familys total spending, then we should
make the price change for toothpaste have a much smaller overall effect on the price index. To
do this we weight each price change to give it more or less importance in the overall index.
19
This has been done in the table below see if you can complete the last column:
Product
Weights Price
year 1
Index
year 1
Weighted Price
index
year 2
year 1
Index
year 2
Weighted
index
year 2
Bread
80p
100
400
120p
150
600
Cheese
260p
100
200
312p
Sausages
300p
100
300
390p
Toothpaste
100p
100
100
80p
TOTAL
10
Overall
index
1,000/10
100
Q = 50 + 20P
Curve
Slope =
Intercept =
Slope =
Intercept =
Criticisms of economics
BVFD: read section 2.10 and case 2.1.
One criticism levied against economics which is mentioned briefly in this
section is that the actions of human beings cannot be reduced to scientific
laws. However, if we look at human behaviour in general, we can see
stable patterns on average even though the behaviour of individuals is
unpredictable. This has to do with the law of large numbers, a statistical
concept or law which states that as the number of individual cases
increases, random movements tend to offset each other, such that the
difference between the expected value and the actual value tends to zero.
That means the behaviour of a group of people is much more predictable
than the behaviour of certain individuals, because the odd things one
individual does tend to be cancelled out by the odd things that some other
individual does (this is discussed further in previous versions of L&C e.g.
Chapter 2 of the 12th edition).
More recently, economics has been criticised for failing to predict the
financial crisis and associated recession beginning in 200708.4 This led
to some damage to the reputation of the subject and to the status of the
profession. It is too early to say just how damaging this has been (there
doesnt seem to be any major decrease in the demand to study economics
at university or, broadly speaking, in the longer-term employment
prospects of economics graduates in either the private or public sectors).
One consequence of the crisis has been considerable self-examination of
the way in which the subject has been taught in the past and the first signs
of new pedagogical approaches can be detected in the revamping of some
introductory courses.
Overview
Economics analyses what, how and for whom society produces. The key
economic problem is to reconcile the conflict between peoples virtually
unlimited desires and the scarcity of available resources and means
of production. The PPF shows the maximum amount of one good that
can be produced given the output of another. The slope of the PPF is
the opportunity cost (of the good on the horizontal axis in terms of the
other). More generally, opportunity cost is the value of the best alternative
that must be sacrificed. The fact that different individuals and countries
have different opportunity costs of producing various goods gives rise to
comparative advantage and creates the possibilities for gains from trade.
22
4
Some economists
were prescient. Nouriel
Roubini (NYU. Stern
School of Business)
as early as 2006 was
predicting that the
US housing bubble
would burst, leading
to damaging loss of
consumer confidence
and ultimately to
recession. Widely
criticised for being too
pessimistic at the time
Roubinis forecasts were,
if anything, exceeded by
actual events. The link
provides some thoughts
of the Chairman of the
US Federal Reserve,
Ben Bernanke on the
implications of the crisis
for economics:
www.federalreserve.
gov/newsevents/speech/
bernanke20100924a.
htm
23
Cheese
Samuel
Roberto
24
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
define the concept of a market
draw demand and supply curves (and inverse demand and supply
curves)
25
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 3.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C), Chapter 2.
Witztum (AW), sections 2.1 and 4.1.
Equilibrium
BVFD: read sections 3.13.3.
Before turning to some activities which will help to consolidate your
understanding of the material in these sections it is worth elaborating
a little on the concept of equilibrium in economics. You will find that
this concept is central in economic theory (whether it is observable in
practice raises further issues which we do not address here) although
it has many interpretations; even in a basic course such as this you will
encounter more than one version. In microeconomics we are about to
look at the concept of equilibrium market price, later when we introduce
game theory we will encounter the concept of a Nash equilibrium and in
macroeconomics we will define equilibrium in terms of aggregate supply
and demand (as opposed to the supply and demand in the market for a
particular good or service), in terms of simultaneous goods and money
market equilibrium (IS-LM equilibrium) and in terms of the so-called
steady state (where capital, investment and output per worker are
constant) in growth theory. What is common in all these examples is that
the system being analysed is in some sense at rest there are no forces at
work generating further changes to the system. In the demand and supply
26
Quantity Demanded
(thousands)
Quantity Supplied
(thousands)
90
10
75
15
20
60
30
30
45
45
40
30
60
50
15
75
60
90
Demand Curve
Supply Curve
1
In more advanced
analysis, questions can
arise as to whether an
equilibrium exists in
the first place and, if it
does, whether it is stable
in the sense that, out
of equilibrium, forces
arise driving the model
being analysed back to
equilibrium. We do not
examine these issues
further on this course.
(Note: Although these lines are straight, they are still called demand and supply curves).
BVFD: read Maths box 3.1.
Maths box 3.1 introduces a simple mathematical way of describing the
demand and supply curves and finding equilibrium price and quantity. You
need to be familiar with this algebraic approach where the constants in
the supply and demand curves are given letters (here a, b, c, d) and where
they are expressed as numbers, as in the following activity.
Activity SG2.2
The direct demand function and direct supply function can be used to easily find the
equilibrium quantity and price. Use the following curves to find the equilibrium price and
quantity for noodles:
QD= 30 3/4P
QS= 5 + 1/2P
Equilibrium Price =
Equilibrium Quantity =
27
P = 20 QD
Inverse Supply:
P = 6 + QS
These equations are very useful for us to graph the demand and supply
curves, because we can easily read the key characteristics of the curves
straight off the relevant function. To graph the inverse demand function
P = a/b 1/b*QD (using the notation from Maths box 3.1), we can use
the fact that the intercept on the price axis is a/b and the gradient is 1/b.
Similarly, for the inverse supply function P = c/d + 1/dQS, the intercept is
c/d and the gradient is 1/d.
For example, if the inverse demand curve is P = 12 4QD, the demand
curve touches the vertical axis at P = 12 and slopes downward with a
slope of 4.
Activity SG2.3
Find the inverse demand and supply functions using the direct demand and supply
functions in the table below.
Demand/Supply Function
Demand
Q = 30 *P
Supply
QS= 5 + *P
28
Which curve
shifts? Supply
or demand?
Direction? Effect on
price?
Effect on
quantity?
Movement along
the other curve
which direction?
Supply
Left
Lower
Demand, left
Higher
29
Activity SG2.5
Multiple choice questions
1. The only four consumers in a market have the following willingness to pay for a good:
Buyer
Willingness to Pay
Sally
15
Simon
25
Susan
35
Shaun
45
If there is only one unit of the good and if the buyers bid against each other for the
right to purchase it, then the consumer surplus will be:
a. 0 or slightly less
b. 10 or slightly less
c. 30 or slightly less
d. 45 or slightly less.
NB: It may help to calculate the price first. Assume it is an open auction where each
bidder calls the price out aloud.
2. Examine the diagram below:
120
Supply Curve
100
80
60
Equilibrium
40
Demand Curve
20
100
Quantity
30
3. Here you see Anthonys demand curve for football matches (you can treat the demand
curve as being approximately linear).
P
8
6
10
60
40
Excess demand
Demand Curve
20
Price Ceiling
50
100
Quantity
Figure 2.3: Loss of producer and consumer surplus due to a price ceiling.
BVFD: read the summary and work through the review questions.
31
Overview
Buyers and sellers come together in a market and exchange goods and
services. Demand (from buyers) and supply (from sellers) are key concepts
of economic analysis. Demand curves display the quantity that buyers
wish to buy at each price and generally slope downwards demand is
higher when the price is lower. Supply curves display the quantity that
sellers wish to sell at each price and generally slope upwards sellers
are prepared to sell more when the price is higher. The market clears
(and equilibrium is achieved) at the point where the demand and supply
curves intersect. Understanding what demand and supply curves represent
and what makes them shift is the most fundamental lesson from this
block. Price changes are represented by a movement along a curve,
shifts in the curves indicate changes in other factors, such as the price of
complements or substitutes or changes in consumers income (for demand
curves) and changes in technology and input prices (for supply curves).
Shifts in the demand or supply curves change the equilibrium price and
quantity. Inverse demand and supply curves (where price is expressed as
a function of quantity) can be useful for graphing the curves. The block
also introduces consumer and producer surplus and the fact that price
controls lead to a reduction in consumer and producer surplus, whereas
free markets optimise consumer and producer surplus. You need to be able
to calculate consumer and producer surplus and the loss involved due to
price controls.
50
Supply Curve
Excess supply
40
Price Floor
30
20
Demand Curve
10
10
20
30
Quantity
34
Block 3: Elasticity
Block 3: Elasticity
Introduction
The concept of elasticity is very important in microeconomics here we
devote a whole block to it! Elasticity has to do with responsiveness, for
example: how much does the quantity demanded of a good respond to
a change in the price of that good? For some goods, such as life-saving
medicine, peoples demand will not fall much even if the price increases
substantially, while for other goods, such as a particular chocolate bar,
the demand will respond to price much more, since if the price of one
chocolate bar goes up, people will generally be quite happy to purchase
another one (or a different kind of snack) instead. This chapter uses many
examples to make the concepts more intuitive, and also relies on graphs
and simple equations. Make use of the exercises in this block and in the
textbook to really master this concept and its applications.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
describe how elasticities measure the responsiveness of demand and
supply
define and calculate price elasticity of demand
indicate the determinants of price elasticity
describe the relationship between demand elasticity and revenue
recognise the fallacy of composition
describe how cross-price elasticity relates to complements and
substitutes
define and calculate income elasticity of demand
use income elasticity to identify inferior, normal and luxury goods
define and calculate elasticity of supply
describe how supply and demand elasticities affect tax incidence.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 4.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapter 2; UK edition,
Chapter 3.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 2 section 2.4.
Q P
P Q
elastic
Rank of responsiveness
Block 3: Elasticity
-10
5
Q
P
If you want to express the elasticity as a positive number, you will need to
use the absolute value (or just multiply the negative number by the minus
one, which is the same thing).
Activity SG3.2
Part A: Calculating an arc elasticity
Given the following information, calculate the elasticity of demand for the following
goods, expressing the elasticities as positive numbers
Initial Price and Quantity
New Price and Quantity
Good A
Good B
Good C
Good D
P0 = 4
P0 = 4
P0 = 5
P0 = 12
Q0 = 10
Q0 = 10
Q0 = 4
Q0 = 13
P1 = 5
P1 = 5
P1 = 2
P1 = 11
Q1 = 7
Q1 = 9
Q1 = 10
Q1 = 15
PED: value
PED: category
37
At X, PED =
At Y, PED =
16
At Z, PED =
Y
10
20
30
40
Quantity
38
Factor
Example
Necessity
People depend on
this
Demand is inelastic
Substitutes
Demand is elastic
Definition
Time-span
Tastes change/more
drastic adjustments
become feasible
The share of
your budget
Small items
Demand is inelastic
Good/Service
Block 3: Elasticity
Activity SG3.4
Use the boxes below to draw demand curves appropriate to each heading:
=
Activity SG3.5
Total spending is the same as the firms revenue. Use the data below to decide, if you
were a manager, whether or not to make the price change in the following cases (you can
ignore costs for the purposes of this activity and just assume that an increase in revenue
is a good thing and a decrease in revenue is bad). For each case, calculate the demand
elasticity (using the arc method), decide whether or not to make the change, and then
check your answer by calculating total revenue before and after the price change.
a. Increasing the price from 6 to 7 will lead to a fall in sales from 10,000 to 8,000.
b. Increasing the price from 8 to 10 will lead to a fall in sales from 15,000 to 12,500.
c. Decreasing the price from 20 to 18 will lead to an increase in sales from 6,000 to
8,000.
This activity emphasises the relationship between elasticity and total
revenue. This is clearly explained in the textbook, but if you are not afraid
of a bit of algebra we can derive a useful formula linking the two:
TR = P * Q
TR QP + PQ
(This approximation depends on P and Q being small so that the
product PP is very small, or what is know as second order small)
Dividing by P
TR
P
TR
P
=Q+P
Q
P
= Q (1 + PED)
Remember that PED is negative and P is positive for a price increase and
negative for a price decrease. So, for example if demand is elastic, say 2,
and price falls, then the sign of TR is positive. If it is inelastic, say 0.3,
and price falls, then the sign of TR is negative.
Pj
Pj
Qi
Unlike the case of a downward sloping demand curve where PED was
always negative, the cross-price elasticity can be positive or negative
depending on how the goods are related in consumption (whether they
are substitutes or complements). The cross-price elasticity of demand is
negative for complements and positive for substitutes. If the price of good i
increases, people will demand less of good j if it is a complement to good i,
and more of good j if it is a substitute for good i. What would be the value
of the cross-price elasticity between two goods if they were completely
unrelated?
Activity SG3.6
Multiple choice question
A Bordurian lawyer explains: Smoking is a Bordurian tradition. If you had coffee, you had
cigarettes; if you had cigarettes, you had coffee. According to this statement, the cross-price
elasticity of the demand for coffee with respect to the price of cigarettes in Borduria is:
a. positive
b. negative
c. zero.
Income elasticity
Car
2.98
Food
0.5
Margarine
0.37
Vegetables
0.9
Public transportation
0.36
Books
1.44
Type of good
Would you expect income elasticities for given goods to be broadly similar in different
countries? For example, would you expect the income elasticity of demand for public
transport to be similar in the USA and in Mali? Think about why or why not.
The formula for calculating income elasticity of demand is:
Percentage change in quantity demanded of good X divided by the
percentage change in real consumers income.
Using the delta notation and letting Q represent quantity of the good
40
Block 3: Elasticity
Incidence of a tax
BVFD: read section 4.9.
The key point of this section is that the incidence of the tax is not related
to the person who physically pays the money to the government. Rather,
whichever party (consumers or producers) is less price sensitive (either in
demand or supply) will bear the greater share of the burden of the tax.1
Suppose demand were perfectly inelastic, how would the burden of a sales
tax be shared between consumers and producers?
It is important to realise that a sales tax drives a wedge between the price
paid by consumers (sometimes called the demand price) and the price
received by producers (the supply price). In a simple supply and demand
diagram in the absence of taxes these two prices are, of course, the same.
Another point to consider is why goods such as cigarettes and fuel are
taxed so heavily. This isnt only a question of improving health or reducing
pollution consider the PED of these goods and the implications for
government tax revenues of taxing goods such as these.
This is summed up in an
expression which holds
for small taxes, but which
we do not prove here:
PES
D
=
S
PED
In words, the ratio of
the change in the price
the consumer pays (the
demand price) to the
change in the price that
the producer receives
(the supply price) is
equal to the ratio of the
price elasticity of supply
to the price elasticity of
demand.
Activity SG3.10
Lets put Maths box 4.4 into practice using a numerical example. If:
QD = 30 4P
QS = 6 + 8P
t = 0.375 where t is a specific tax that has to be paid by suppliers.
Calculate
i. the equilibrium quantities with and without the tax
ii. the increase in the price paid by consumers and the fall in consumer surplus
iii. the fall in the price received by suppliers and the fall in producer surplus
iv. the tax revenue received by the government
v. the deadweight loss of the tax.
Activity SG3.11
Multiple choice question
Here you see the football fans demand curve d for televised football matches together
with the Football Associations (FA) supply curve s for such matches. The market for
televised matches clears where the two curves cross, hence when 10 matches are
televised for 6 each. Suppose now that the Government introduces a tax of 4 per
televised match. The figure shows that the number of televised matches falls from 10 to
6. For these 6 matches fans pay 8 but the FA earns only 4 as the difference goes into
the governments coffers.
P
S
8
6
d
4
2
0
10
Block 3: Elasticity
BVFD: read the summary and work through the Sample examination
questions.
Overview
This block describes the concept of elasticity, explores how to calculate
elasticities and discusses the implications. Conceptually, elasticity has to
do with responsiveness, usually how much demand or supply responds to
a change in price or income. You need to know how to calculate arc and
point elasticities. The type of elasticities you need to be familiar with are
as follows: own-price demand elasticity (elastic if more negative than 1,
unit elastic if 1, inelastic if between 1 and 0; though in practice these
are often expressed as positive numbers using the absolute value), crossprice demand elasticity (generally positive for substitutes and negative for
complements), income elasticity of demand (negative for inferior goods,
larger than 1 for luxury goods) and supply elasticity (positive since the
supply curve slopes upwards). Elasticity has implications for total spending
on a product (which from the companys perspective is simply revenue):
If demand is elastic, a fall in price leads to an increase in revenue. It also
has implications for tax incidence the more price insensitive side of the
market (be it buyers or sellers) will bear a greater burden of the tax.
43
Long-response question:
1. a. Discuss the meaning of elasticity and the various types. What
determines the price elasticity of demand for a certain good? Who
is likely to find this information useful?
b. Assume that the market demand for barley is given by:
Q=1,900 4PB + 0.1M + 2PW
Where Q is the quantity of barley demanded, PB is the price of
barley, M is income (say per capita income of consumers) and
PW is the price of wheat. The prices of wheat and barley are each
200 (say s per tonne) and M is 1,000. The slopes for barley
demand, wheat demand and income are 4, 2 and 0.1 respectively.
44
Block 3: Elasticity
45
Notes
46
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
define the relationship between utility and tastes for a consumer
describe the concept of diminishing marginal utility
describe the concept of diminishing marginal rate of substitution and
calculate the marginal rate of substitution (MRS)
represent tastes as indifference curves
derive a budget line
explain how indifference curves and budget constraints explain
consumer choice
describe how changes in consumer income affect quantity demanded
describe how a price change affects quantity demanded
define income and substitution effects
show how the market demand curve relates to the demand curves of
individual consumers.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 5 including the appendix.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapter 3; UK edition, Chapter 4.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 2.
47
Utility
The concept of utility was introduced by Jeremy Bentham, in his 1789
book Principles of morals and legislation. He defined it as follows: By utility
is meant that property in any object, whereby it tends to produce benefit,
advantage, pleasure, good, or happiness, (all this in the present case comes
to the same thing) or (what comes again to the same thing) to prevent the
happening of mischief, pain, evil, or unhappiness to the party whose interest
is considered. The philosophy of utilitarianism (the greatest happiness
principle) was invented by Bentham and has been very influential. The
textbook defines utility much more simply as the satisfaction consumers
get from consuming goods (p.84). As you can read in the appendix to
Chapter 5, in the 19th century, economists believed that utility levels could
be measured, and used a unit of measurement called utils. Nowadays,
economists assume that utility is not measurable in this way, however, utility
is still a useful concept that underlies much of microeconomics.
Marginal utility
As discussed in Block 1, consumers and firms make decisions at the
margin. This idea is very important in relation to utility. The marginal
utility of a good or service is the extra utility a person gains from
consuming one more unit of that good or service.
Activity SG4.1
Linking the shape of the indifference curves to the assumptions regarding consumer tastes.
The various assumptions that lie behind indifference curves are reflected in certain
aspects of the shape of the curve. Match the assumption to the characteristic of the curve
and explain why.
Diminishing marginal rate of substitution
Completeness
Transitivity
Downward sloping
The meaning and representation of preferences and hence the assumptions behind
indifference curves are discussed in detail in AW section 2.2.2.
48
35
a
30
Clothing
1
Some textbooks define
the MRS as the slope of
the indifference curve,
that is as a negative
quantity, others as the
absolute value of the
slope (i.e. as a positive
quantity). This is simply
a matter of convention
and it doesnt matter
which convention is
followed, as long as one
is consistent.
25
20
15
10
5
0
10 15 20 25 30 35
Food
Figure 4.1: The marginal rate of substitution is the slope of the indifference
curve.
12
(12/5)*1 = 2.4
From b to c
(5/5)*1 = 1.0
From c to d
(3/5)*1 = 0.6
From d to e
(2/5) * 1 = 0.4
From e to f
(1/5) * 1 = 0.2
Table 4.1
Figure 5.5 on p.90 of BVFD also helps to illustrate this idea, showing
indifference curves for people with different tastes. The glutton is more
willing to substitute films for food than the weight-watching film buff and
has a higher MRS. Drawing a tangent to any part of their indifference
curves shows that the slope of the gluttons indifference curve is steeper
reflecting his higher MRS between meals and films.
The slope of a typical indifference curve gets steadily flatter as we move to
the right, reflecting a diminishing marginal rate of substitution.
Clothing
For example:
Food
Figure 4.2: Changes in the slope of an indifference curve reflect a diminishing
marginal rate of substitution.
The slope of the tangent A shows the MRS of food for clothing at point a.
Similarly, the slope of the tangent B shows the MRS at point b. We can see
that the slope flattens as we move from a to b, reflecting a diminishing
MRS. At point a, the person has quite a lot of clothing and is willing to
substitute a fair bit of this for a certain amount of food. At point b, the
person has much less clothing but quite a lot of food and is only willing
to substitute a very small amount of clothing to gain the extra amount of
food. Going back to table 4.1, you can also see the diminishing MRS, as
the amount of clothing the person is willing to substitute for 5 additional
units of food continues to fall.
Activity SG4.2
Draw a map of indifference curves, marking out bundles and comparing them to each
other based on the following story: Mark likes jeans and cowboy boots. He is indifferent
between a bundle with 3 pairs of jeans and 2 pairs of cowboy boots (bundle A) and
a bundle with 2 pairs of jeans and 4 pairs of cowboy boots (bundle B). However, he
would prefer to have a bundle with 4 pairs of jeans and 5 pairs of cowboy boots (bundle
C). He is also indifferent between a bundle with 2 pairs of jeans and 1 pair of cowboy
boots (bundle D) and a bundle of 1 pair of jeans and 3 pairs of cowboy boots (bundle
E), although these last two options are his least preferred options. How do you think he
would feel about a bundle with 3 pairs of jeans and 3 pairs of cowboy boots?
Remember:
An indifference curve shows all the consumption bundles yielding a particular level of
utility.
Any point on a higher indifference curve is preferred to any point on a lower
indifference curve.
50
Indifference map
Budget constraint
Activity SG4.3
The slope depends only on the relative prices of the two goods. Draw budget constraints
for the following three price combinations, assuming a total income of 120.
A:
PX = 12
PY = 20
B:
PX = 10
PY = 20
C:
PX = 12
PY = 15
The figure in this Maths box shows how you can represent a general case,
where you dont have specific quantities and prices. The intercepts will
then be M/PY and M/PX respectively. This is likely to be how you will draw
a budget constraint most often.
Step 1
Step 2
Preferences
(What the individual wants to do)
Budget Constraint
(What the individual can do)
Step 3
Decision
(Taking constraints into account, the individual attempts
to reach the highest level of satisfaction)
Figure 4.3: Consumer choice and the decision rule.
Decision rule
The point which maximises utility is the point at which the consumer
reaches the highest indifference curve that the budget constraint allows.
For the standard indifference curves we have been looking at, this
decision rule says that the consumer should choose the consumption
bundle where the slope of the budget line and the slope of the indifference
curve coincide. In other words, it is the point at which the indifference
curve is tangent to the budget constraint.
BVFD: read the first part of the appendix for Chapter 5 of, the material in
the appendix applies whether or not utility can actually be measured.
We can describe the consumers optimal decision using equations as
follows: At the chosen bundle, the marginal rate of substitution between
the two goods must equal their relative price, i.e. MRS =MUx/MUy =Px/
Py . Rearranging this gives MUX/PX= MUY/PY .
We can also describe their decision graphically, as follows: The consumer
choses the bundle where the indifference curve is tangent to their budget
constraint. The slope of the indifference curve (MRS = MUx/MUy) and
the slope of the budget constraint (Px/Py )must be equal. The tangency
thus implies MUx/MUy = Px/Py . Rearranging this gives MUX/PX=MUY/PY.
52
Good Y
M/Py
b
u0
M/Px Good X
Figure 4.4: A budget constraint and an indifference curve.
53
Activity SG4.5
Draw budget constraints and possible indifference curves for the following scenario:
Susan buys cabbages and carrots. Cabbages cost 1 per kilo and carrots cost 0.80 per
kilo. Her income falls from 20 to 16. Carrots are a normal good, but cabbages are an
inferior good.
NB: The method used in the textbook and in this activity to break a price change into
income and substitution effects follows an approach suggested by the economist John Hicks
and the effects are known as the Hicksian substitution and income effects. There is also an
alternative approach following the economist Eugen Slutsky. If you are interested to know
more about this, it is explained in AW 2.3.1. However, you are only required to know the
Hicksian approach (as in BVFD) for this course.
55
A
(Price per sandwich = p1)
(Price per sandwich = p2)
e1
e2
e3
e4
Price-consumption curve
(Price per sandwich = p3)
(Price per sandwich = p4)
x1 x2 x3 x4
Sandwiches
Sandwiches
56
y1
A
Indifference curve
x1
10
Px
A/
x1
Consumer 3
12
12
12
12
2 4 6
5 10
58
PRICE
Consumer 2
PRICE
Consumer 1
PRICE
PRICE
Complete the fourth graph, showing the market demand curve. Why might the three
consumers have different demand curves?
Market demand
Activity SG4.11
Barbara likes peanut butter and jam together on her sandwiches. However, Barbara is very
particular about the proportions of peanut butter and jam. Specifically, Barbara likes 2
scoops of jam with each scoop of peanut butter. The cost of scoops of peanut butter and
jam are 50p and 20p, respectively. Barbara has 9 each week to spend on peanut butter
and jam. (You can assume that Barbaras mother provides the bread for the sandwiches.)
If Barbara is maximising her utility subject to her budget constraint, how many scoops of
peanut butter and jam should she buy?
Activity SG4.12
Suppose that a consumer considers coffee and tea to be perfect substitutes, but he requires two
cups of tea to give up one cup of coffee. This consumers budget constraint can be written as 3C
+ T = 10. What is this consumers optimal consumption bundle?
Films
c
A
u1
u0
Food
Figure 4.8: Transfers in cash and in kind. Figure adapted by author from BVFD.
Overview
This block started by introducing utility and indifference curves, as
well as the budget constraint. Indifference curves represent consumer
tastes, while the budget constraint shows the possibilities open to the
consumer, given their limited budget. Putting these together, we learned
the decision rule that determines consumer choice, under the assumption
that consumers maximise utility. In particular, we saw that consumers
will chose the bundle of goods such that MUX/PX = MUY/PY. Expressed
graphically, this means that the highest reachable indifference curve is
tangent to the budget constraint. We then explored how their choices are
affected by changes in income and prices, looking in particular at income
and substitution effects of a price change. This helped us identify normal
and inferior (and Giffen) goods. We also further examined complements
and substitutes. Understanding how consumers make choices lets us see
what lies behind the individual and market demand curves. Finally, the
analysis of budget constraints and indifference curves also made it possible
to evaluate the relative benefits of cash transfers versus transfers in kind.
60
61
Long-response questions
1.a. Susan buys bread rolls and cheese. One bread roll costs 1 and
cheese costs 3 per 500g block. Susan has 12 income to spend on
bread and cheese.
i. Draw Susans budget constraint and a possible indifference
curve. Explain the assumptions behind the shape of the
indifference curve you have drawn.
ii. If the price of bread falls to 0.80 per loaf, how will this affect
her purchases? Answer in words and graphically, clearly
indicating income and substitution effects of the price change.
iii. If Susan only enjoys bread and cheese when she has 500g of
cheese for every bread roll that she eats, draw her indifference
curves. How much bread and cheese should she buy to
maximise her utility? Assume Susan has 12, one bread roll
costs 0.80 and cheese costs 3 per 500g block.
b. Now lets assume that Susan grows 100 potatoes each year and
all of her income comes from selling them. She spends all of her
income each year consuming potatoes and other goods. For Susan,
potatoes are a Giffen good, in that if her income is fixed in some
way (i.e. ignoring the fact that she sells potatoes and just fixing her
income at some value) her consumption of potatoes will rise when
their price rises. The price of potatoes falls and she consumes more
potatoes. Taking into account the fact that her income actually
comes from selling potatoes, explain how the last statement can be
consistent with those that precede it.
2. I consume two goods, ice cream and biscuits. I shop once a week,
spending 100, at either Sainsbury or Tesco (two well-known UK
supermarkets). Interestingly, Ive noticed that the bundle I purchase
when I visit Tesco costs more at Sainsbury. Similarly, the bundle I
purchase when I visit Sainsbury costs more at Tesco. And yet, I find
that I get the same utility from shopping at either store (i.e. the
Sainsbury shopping bundle gives me the same utility as the Tesco
shopping bundle). Explain how it is possible for all of these statements
to be true. (Hint: draw a single indifference curve and have me
maximise utility given a 100 budget and different prices in the two
stores).
62
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
distinguish between economic and accounting definitions of cost
describe the relationship between revenue, cost and profit
describe the production function
identify the point of diminishing marginal returns
demonstrate how the choice of production technique depends on input
prices
use isoquants and isocost curves to derive the firms total cost curve
calculate marginal cost and marginal revenue
find the profit maximising level of output, given the firms demand
curve and total cost curve.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 6; Chapter 7 sections
7.1, 7.2 and appendix.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapter 4; UK edition,
Chapter 5.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 3.
to derive the firms total cost curve. It also shows how the demand curve
facing the firm can be used to derive the firms total revenue curve. Profit
is equal to revenue minus cost, thus through understanding the firms
revenue and costs, we can find the profit function. The block concludes by
introducing the concepts of marginal cost and marginal revenue. Providing
that it is profitable for the firm to operate at all, it will choose its level of
production such that marginal cost and marginal revenue are equal.
BVFD: read section 6.16.3, including concepts 6.1 and 6.2 and case 6.1.
Output
Q=f (K,L)
L
Figure 5.1: The production set.
65
Total Product
(TP)
Average Product
(AP)
Marginal Product
(MP)
129
480
1,053
1,800
2,625
3,456
4,116
4,608
4,968
10
5,250
11
5,445
12
5,580
The point where marginal product reaches a maximum is called the point of diminishing
marginal returns. At what quantity of labour does diminishing marginal returns set in?
Graph the Total Product curve in the upper section and the marginal and average product
curves in lower section of the boxes below:
66
Capital
Output = 20
Labour
Capital
1
4
5
Labour
20
64
6.25
64
16
16
5
16
64
6.25
64
4
1
Capital
10
20
Output = 24
On the isoquant reflecting an output level of 10 units what is the MRS between labour
and capital when labour changes from 4 to 5 units?
To find the optimal combination of labour and capital, the second tool we
need to use is called the isocost line, the line showing all combinations of
labour and capital (these being our two inputs in the current example)
which generate the same total cost, given the prices of the two inputs
read about the isocost line on pp.16768. It is worth pointing out that
on p.167, the textbook uses the term cost function for the C=wL+rK.
However, this term is usually reserved for the equation showing cost as a
function of output, not input. Given that there are only two inputs, L and K
with prices w and r respectively C=wL+rK is an identity (something that is
always true) this is how we define total cost.
Activity SG5.6
If r = 2/hr and w = 12.50/hr, draw three isocost lines onto the diagram you created in
Activity SG5.4 for when cost is equal to 50; to 100; and to 150. What is the optimal
(i.e. the least-cost or cost-minimising) combination of labour and capital for an output
level of 10? What is the cost?
Equation A7 has an intuitive explanation, namely, that the firm must buy
resources such that the last pound spent on K adds the same amount of
output as the last pound spent on L. This can be easily seen by further
rearranging the equation such that:
r/w = MPK/MPL
r/MPK = w/MPL
(A7)
(A7b)
67
In the case of consumer choice, the budget line was fixed at the consumers
budget, and the consumer maximised their utility by choosing the
combination of goods which put them on the highest possible indifference
curve. For the firm, for a given level of output, the firm minimises cost by
choosing the combination of inputs that puts them on the lowest possible
isocost line. As such, the isoquants together with the isocost curve can be
used to derive the firms total cost function at different levels of output.
Read about this on p.168.
Activity SG5.7
Use the information below to draw isoquants and isocost lines and find four points on the
firms total cost curve.
Rental rate of capital = 2 per hour
Wage = 2 per hour
Cost levels: 12, 16, 20 and 24.
Output combinations:
Qx = 25
Qx = 50
Qx = 75
Qx = 100
Capital
Labour
Capital
Labour
Capital
Labour
Capital
Labour
10
10
10
10
10
11
Productive efficiency
The fact that the total cost curve shows the least-cost method of producing
each output level implies that the points on the long-run total cost curve
are productive efficient. It is important to note that every point on a firms
average total cost curve is, by definition, productive efficient not just the
minimum point. Productive efficiency occurs when a certain quantity of a
good is produced at the lowest possible input cost. Saying the same thing
in a different way productive efficiency means that the firm is obtaining
the maximum possible output from its inputs.
Activity SG5.8
A firm Sams Lamps has the production function Q(L, K) = L*K. Given labour of 5
and capital of 7, are they producing efficiently by producing 12 units? What level
of production is the productive efficient level? What reasons might there be for not
producing efficiently? Now suppose that Sams Lamps has decided to produce 100 lamps
and the price of labour is 5 per unit and the price of capital is also 5 per unit. The firm
decides to employ 50 units of capital and 10 units of labour. Is this efficient? Hint: with
this production function the marginal product of labour is equal to K and the marginal
product of capital is equal to L.
68
80
40
35
25
Q = 50
35
200 L
Q = 50
200 L
25
(b) Production function with abundant
input substitution opportunities
Activity SG5.9
To produce a subject guide, one author and one computer are perfect complements in
production. One author and two computers would not be more productive. Two authors
is more productive but (probably) only if they each have a computer. Draw the relevant
isoquants for this case. Now imagine that there is a machine that does exactly the same
thing as a human in regards to the production of a certain good. Labour and capital will
be perfect substitutes in production in this case. Draw the relevant isoquants for when the
inputs are labour and this type of machine.
69
Pounds
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
TC
10
Output
Figure 5.3: Total cost.
This curve shows how much it costs the firm to produce any output level
for given technology. It represents the total economic cost of production at
various levels of output.
The firm knows its total cost curve. We also assume it knows the demand
curve it faces. Knowing the demand curve, the firm can calculate the
revenue it would receive at various output levels and derive its total
revenue curve.
25
Price
20
15
10
5
0
10
Quantity
Figure 5.4: Demand curve.
140
120
TR
Pounds
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
5 6
Output
10
For example, point X on the demand curve shows the firm will sell 7 units
of output at 15, generating revenue of 105. Point X on the total revenue
curve therefore shows the combination of 7 units of output and revenue of
105.
Putting the total cost and total revenue curves together allows us to find
the profit function (profit as a function of output). For example, when
total cost and total revenue are equal, profit is zero. At 6 units of output,
the gap between the two curves is greatest, and this is the highest point on
the profit curve, showing a profit of 27.
70
Pounds
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
TC
TR
12
Output
10
Output
10 Profit 12
Profit
Pounds
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
20 0
BVFD: read section 6.5, section 6.6, Maths 6.1 and Maths 6.2.
Marginal analysis
Marginal analysis is one of the key analytical tools in economics. We
have already covered marginal utility in the previous block. This section
introduces marginal cost and marginal revenue. Marginal cost (MC) is the
change in total economic cost due to the production of one more unit of
output. Marginal revenue (MR) is the change in total revenue due to the
sale of one more unit of output. At the profit maximising level of output,
marginal cost and marginal revenue are equal.
Both maths boxes involve calculus, which helps to simplify the analysis.
You should work through these maths boxes to understand the principles
they are expounding.
Activity SG5.10
If the firm faces the demand curve: P = 25 2Q:
a. fill in the blanks in the table below
b. draw the marginal cost and marginal revenue curves
c. find the profit maximising output level for this firm. How much profit is the firm
earning at that point? Assume output must be in integers.
Output
Price
Total
revenue
Total
cost
23
34
42
49
Marginal
Revenue
Marginal
cost
Profit
71
55
65
78
93
110
10
130
BVFD: read the summary and work through the review questions.
Overview
As well as providing an introduction to the basic unit of production the
firm this block has demonstrated what lies behind the firms production
decisions. Using isoquants and isocost curves, the firm can determine the
least-cost combination of inputs to produce a given quantity of output. From
there, the firms total cost curve can be derived. It is assumed that firms
pursue a goal of profit maximisation, and one key point from this block is
that Profit = Revenue Cost. Knowing the demand curve it faces, the firm
can derive its revenue curve, and since it knows both revenue and cost, the
profit-maximising level of output can easily be found. At this level of output,
we have also seen in this block that marginal cost and marginal revenue
are equal. Marginal analysis is a very useful tool in economic analysis, as
we have seen here in the case of the firm. As the textbook also clarifies, the
economic analysis of the firm provides a useful model for understanding
firms behaviour it is not meant to be a practical system for real world
firms to follow, rather, it provides an analytical framework which helps
explain the behaviour of individual firms and the market as a whole.
Output of pies
10
26
36
44
49
52
c. 5 workers
d. 6 workers.
2. Anita owns a grocery shop. These are her annual revenues and costs:
Revenues 250,000
Supplies 25,000
Electricity and heating
6,000
Employees salaries
75,000
73
TC
10
13
14
16
19
23
28
34
TR
MR
MC
74
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
identify fixed and variable factors in the short-run
analyse total, average and marginal cost, in the short-run and long-run
draw the relevant cost curves and explain why they have certain
shapes
define returns to scale and their relation to average cost curves
describe how a firm choses output, in the short-run and the long-run
describe the relationship between short-run cost and long-run cost.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 7, sections 3 to 9.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapter 4; UK edition,
Chapter 5.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 3.
TP
increasing
marginal
returns
Output
Output
decreasing
marginal
returns
increasing
marginal
returns
costs
increase
at a
decreasing
rate
TC
costs
increase
at an
increasing
rate
MP
L
Cost
Cost
decreasing
marginal
returns
costs
increase
at a
decreasing
rate
MC
costs
increase
at an
increasing
rate
Figure 6.1: Relationships between total and marginal product and total and
marginal cost.
The top left figure shows the total product curve, which is initially
displaying increasing marginal returns and then displays decreasing
marginal returns after the dotted line. This is a mirror image of the total
cost curve depicted in the figure below it. When marginal returns are
increasing, costs are increasing at a decreasing rate, and vice versa. The
slope of the TP curve gives the marginal product, while the slope of the
TC curve gives marginal cost. The total product curve is also related to
the marginal product curve (top left figure). The marginal product curve
displays increasing marginal returns by increasing up to a maximum point,
and then falling when marginal returns are decreasing. The marginal
cost curve below is the mirror image of the marginal product curve
and demonstrates the rate of change of costs more explicitly it falls
when costs are increasing at a decreasing rate and rises when costs are
increasing at an increasing rate.
76
Activity SG6.1
This section introduces various cost curves practise these in the boxes below as
indicated:
STC, SVC, SFC
Activity SG 6.2
Why does the SMC curve cut the SAVC and SATC curves at their minimum points?
Provide an intuitive answer.
BVFD: read Maths 7.2.
This maths box provides formulas for the various short-run costs based on
a short-run total cost function. You need to remember that:
Total cost = Fixed cost + Variable cost
Marginal cost is the change in total cost as quantity produced changes
Average costs are calculated by dividing the cost by the quantity
produced; this applies to average fixed cost, average variable cost and
average total cost.
Activity SG 6.3
Find the short-run fixed cost, variable cost, marginal cost, average fixed cost, average
variable cost and average total cost for the short-run total cost function STC = M + aQ2,
for which the first derivative is 2aQ.
short-run fixed cost
variable cost
marginal cost
average fixed cost
average variable cost
average total cost.
77
78
LATC, LMC
BVFD: read section 7.7, cases 7.2 and 7.3 and Maths 7.3.
If five workers and five machines can produce 1,000 soft toys, how many
soft toys could be produced if we employed 10 workers and 10 machines?
This question has to do with returns to scale in production. Does doubling
inputs result in more than double, less than double or exactly double the
original output? This will tell us if there are increasing, decreasing or
constant returns to scale.
Some textbooks, but not BVFD, make a semantic distinction between
returns to scale in production and economies of scale in costs. Thus,
on the production side if there are constant returns to scale then a doubling
of all inputs leads to a doubling of output; and with increasing (decreasing)
returns to scale a doubling of all inputs more (less) than doubles output
(see Maths box 7.3). As long as input prices are held constant then the
relationship between returns to scale in production and economies of scale
in costs is straightforward: if doubling inputs more than doubles output then
cost per unit of output is smaller at higher output. However, if input prices
change as output increases or decreases then the effect of these changes, as
well as underlying scale effects in production, will affect average costs. The
fact that BVFD equates the two concepts implies an underlying assumption
that input prices are not changing as output increases or decreases.
Output
Composite Input
Figure 6.2: Long-run production function.
We can now see how this curve demonstrates initially increasing, then
constant, and finally decreasing returns to scale. The vertical bars rising
up from the x-axis are evenly spaced. However, the quantity of output
generated from these input levels varies greatly. At low levels of input,
increasing the units of input increases the level of output more than
proportionally, representing increasing returns to scale. At high levels of
inputs and outputs, the opposite is the case, since increasing the level of
inputs increases the level of outputs less than proportionally, representing
decreasing returns to scale.
79
Section 7.7 discusses some real-world reasons behind returns to scale and
discusses why firms may face a U-shaped long-run average cost curve. You
should understand the reasons why LRAC may fall initially, be constant for
some time, and then increase.
Activity SG6.6
Increasing returns to scale can be expressed as saying that a certain increase in inputs
leads to a more than proportional increase in output. Equivalently, it can also be
expressed by saying that a certain increase in output requires a less than proportional
increase in inputs. Use this idea and the following isoquant map to derive a production
function (with a composite input on the horizontal axis), assuming that the level of output
represented by each successive isoquant increases by an equal amount each time.
K
X7
X6
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
X0
L
Figure 6.3: Returns to scale: the relationship between increases in inputs and
increases in output.
The relationship between the level of input and the level of output is
discussed further in AW Section 3.1.2 (which the above activity is based
on).
BVFD: read section 7.8.
The only difference to the analysis of the output decision in the short run
is that there are no fixed and variable costs, since all inputs are variable
in the long run. For this reason, the concept of it being worthwhile to
produce as long as variable costs are more than covered has no relevance
and the firm simply choses its output level where MR = LMC, and then
checks if this is profitable using the LRAC curve.
The firms long-run supply curve is its marginal cost curve
above the average cost curve. The firm will supply the output at
which LMC is equal to MR, provided that price is not less than the firms
LRAC.
BVFD: read section 7.9.
The short-run cost curve shows the costs for when one input is fixed at a
certain level. If it were fixed at a different level, the short-run cost curves
would also be different. For example, if the level of capital was fixed at a
higher level, short-run costs for producing a given level of output may be
lower, if each worker is more productive with more capital to work with.
There is a different short-run cost curve for each quantity of the fixed
input. This is sometimes described as a family of short-run cost curves. In
the long run the firm chooses the plant size with the lowest average cost
for any given level of output. The LAC includes one point (assuming there
are a large number of feasible plant sizes) from each SAC (not necessarily
80
the minimum point of the short-run curve, as the text explains). The longrun average cost curve can be described as an envelope of these short-run
curves.
Activity SG6.7
Draw six short-run average cost curves, each with a single point of tangency to a long-run
average cost curve showing increasing, constant and then decreasing returns to scale.
BVFD: read the summary and work through the review questions.
Overview
This block introduces the distinction between the short run (when one
factor of production is fixed) and the long run (where all inputs are
variable). The production function, which summarises the technical
possibilities faced by the firm, can be used to derive the firms total cost
curve. Short-run total cost is equal to short-run fixed cost plus shortrun variable cost. Average costs are found by dividing cost by quantity
produced. Average cost is falling if marginal cost is below average cost,
and rising if marginal cost is above average cost. The short-run marginal
cost curve reflects the marginal product of the variable factor (usually
labour). It cuts the SATC and SAVC curves at their minimum points.
In the short run, the firm choses its output level where MC = MR, but
only produces at all if the price received at this level of output at least
covers all variable costs and makes some contribution to fixed costs. The
long-run total cost curve represents the economically efficient (leastcost) production method for each level of output when all inputs can be
varied. The long-run average cost curve is usually U-shaped, representing
increasing, constant and then decreasing returns to scale as output rises.
In the long-run, the firm supplies the output at which MR = LMC as long
as the price is no less than LAC at that level of output. The LAC curve is an
envelope of many SAC curves which all touch the LAC at just one point.
This block showed how the short-run and long-run supply curves of an
individual firm can be found. The following block contains the derivation
of the short-run and long-run industry supply curves for different types
of industries. This block provides a detailed introduction to costs. The
following blocks will also look more in detail at revenue, in relation to the
market structure in which the firm operates.
You need to be able to reproduce the output curves and cost curves
covered in this block. Since there are quite a few, the best way to do this
is to understand what they mean, why they have certain shapes, and
how they are related to each other. Approaching this with understanding
(rather than memorisation) will be an easier and more effective method in
the long run. Furthermore, the examination will test your understanding
81
of these cost concepts (rather than just your capacity for memorisation).
The output and cost curves you need to know for this block are
summarised below. This is a good chance to practise them and make sure
you understand what they represent, where they come from, and how they
are related to each other.
TP
(labour on horizontal axis)
MPL
LTC
LATC, LMC
82
Output of pies
10
26
36
44
49
52
83
84
Q4=?
Q3=?
b
2
1
Q2=?
Q1=?
1
85
Notes
86
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
define perfect competition
describe why a perfectly competitive firm equates marginal cost and
price
demonstrate how profits and losses lead to entry and exit
draw the industry supply curve
carry out comparative static analysis of a competitive industry.
87
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 8, sections 1 to 4
(which builds on Chapter 7 which you should revise if necessary).
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapter 5; UK edition,
Chapter 6.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 4.
TR
Slope=P
Q
Figure 7.1: Total revenue for a competitive firm.
89
TR
TR, TC
Panel (a)
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q (output)
Q4
Profit,
Profit, , (TRTC)
Panel (b)
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q (output)
Q4
MC
AC
D=AR=MR
Profit,
Panel (c)
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q (output)
In panel (a), a total cost curve (with fixed costs in the short run and increasing
marginal cost) is superimposed on the TR curve. Profit, which we denote by
, is the vertical distance between total revenue and total cost. It is positive
between Q1 and Q4. For output lower than Q1 or greater than Q4 the firm makes
a loss. Geometrically, profit is maximised when the vertical distance TRTC is
greatest (between Q1 and Q4). This occurs at Q3, where the slope of TR is equal
to the slope of TC. These two slopes are MR and MC respectively, so profit is
maximised when output is chosen such that MR = MC (or P = MC, as MR = P).
Panel (b) simply graphs profit, , against output. Profit maximisation means
getting to the top of the profit hill, again at Q3, of course.
Panel (c) shows the same process in a third equivalent way, using the firms
demand and cost curves (the MC and AC curves corresponding to the TC
curve in panel (a)). Profit maximising output is at Q3 where MC = MR. The
shaded area shows the firms actual profit; it is AR AC, which is profit per
unit at Q3 multiplied by the number of units this is earned on, namely Q3.
Equivalently it is TR (= AR*Q3) minus TC (= AC*Q3).
90
In actual fact MR = MC
is a necessary but not
sufficient condition for
profit maximisation.
For certain cost curves
and some output level,
MR = MC could maximise
loss not profit. This
problem is not considered
further on this course, but
in the competitive model
we will always be sure
we are maximising profit
at MR = MC as long as
the firm is on the upward
sloping section of its MC
curve.
91
that, in practice, firms have different cost curves, it is much more likely that
the long-run industry supply curve will be upward sloping.
Comparative statics
BVFD: read section 8.4.
This section is vital for your understanding of competitive markets. If you
fully understand the consequences, both at the level of individual firms
and the industry as a whole, of shifts in the market (industry) supply or
demand curves then you will have mastered an important building block of
microeconomic analysis. The essential point is that entry or exit from the
industry ensure that individual firms have zero profits (remember this can
be compatible with a return to management and entrepreneurship these
are included in the cost function; they are opportunity costs, namely what
managers and entrepreneurs could earn in the next best activity). This
means that in the long run, price must return to the minimum ATC, making
the long-run supply curve horizontal as long as expansion or contraction of
the industry does not change input prices. The two activities are designed
to assist your understanding of this. Note that in this section, at the industry
level, the short-run supply curves hold constant the number of firms in the
industry (at the level of the individual firm the short-run corresponds, as
usual, to one or more of the firms inputs being fixed).
Activity SG7.4
Suppose all firms in a perfectly competitive market are initially in both short-run and
long-run equilibrium. Then a lump-sum tax (i.e. a tax that is unrelated to a firms output)
is introduced.
a. What impact will this have on each firm in the short-run? (Explain your answer).
b. What impact will this have on market price in the long-run? (Explain your answer).
c. What impact will this have on each firms output in the long-run? (Explain your answer).
d. What impact will this have on the number of firms in the industry in the long-run?
(Explain your answer).
Draw a diagram to illustrate the effects of the lump-sum tax on an individual firm and the
whole industry.
The section on shifts in the market demand curve demonstrates that the
short-run industry supply curve is much less elastic than the long-run industry
supply curve. In the short run, firms cannot respond as much to a change in
price and the number of firms is fixed. As such, an increase in demand has a
much greater impact on price in the short run compared to the long run.
Activity SG7.5
Reproduce both graphs in Figure 8.8 but for an increase in demand, rather than an increase
in costs (the textbook also suggests this activity and already provides the industry side).
93
Q = 2,488 2P
94
Solution
a. The first thing we have to realise is that the question is concentrating
on the long-run, so it is the properties of long-run equilibrium that are
going to be relevant in solving this problem. In the competitive model
free entry and exit ensure that firms are earning zero profit (they just
cover all opportunity costs). This is a vital step in solving the problem.
Zero profit means that TR = TC for each firm, i.e.
PQ = 144 + 20Q + Q2
But this is not yet helpful to us because it is one equation with two
unknowns. What can we do? Well our model of the competitive firm
also tells us that it will produce where P = MC. We are given MC so
we can substitute in to the left hand side of the equation above:
(20 + 2Q)Q = 144 + 20Q + Q2
This gives us Q2 = 144, i.e. Q = 12
Now from P = MC we know P = 20 + 2Q, i.e. P = 44.
b. Now turn to the market demand curve and substitute in this price to
estimate market demand:
Q =2488 2 * 44 = 2,400
So now we know that market demand is 2,400 and that each profit
maximising competitive firm produces 12 units.
Therefore the number of firms in the market must be
2,400/12 = 200
c. The diagrams are shown below. Make sure that you label the axes and
any curves or lines in the diagram as well the solution values of prices
and quantities. This should all be obvious but it is surprising how
many examination answers fail to provide these important pieces of
information.
LRMC
P, AC, MC
Market demand
LRAC
Market supply
44
44
12
2400
Overview
A market structure is the economic environment in which buyers and
sellers in an industry operate.
This block covered perfect competition and its underlying assumptions,
including that:
there is a large number of buyers, all small relative to the whole
market and all producing a homogeneous product
buyers and sellers have perfect information regarding prices and
available alternatives
there is free entry and exit.
95
iii. Use graphs to illustrate how a decrease in costs changes the longrun equilibrium of a competitive market. Carefully describe the
various components of your graphical representation.
b. In a perfectly competitive industry all firms have the Total Cost
function TC = 4 + q2, where q is output of the individual firm. The
market (industry) demand is given by Q = 120 P where P is price
and Q is industry output. The figure shows the individual firms AC
and MC.
P, AC, MC
MC
AC
i. Suppose that initially the price is 8. How much output does each
firm produce? In the short run, with the number of firms fixed,
how many firms are there in the industry?
ii. Could this be a long-run equilibrium? Explain why or why not.
iii. What is the long-run equilibrium number of firms in this
industry?
97
Notes
98
www.economist.com/
node/2921462
1
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
define pure monopoly
find the optimal price and output levels for a monopolist using
MC = MR
relate PED to monopoly power
recognise how output compares under monopoly and perfect
competition
describe how price discrimination affects a monopolists output and
profits.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 8 sections 5 to 10.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapter 6; UK Edition,
Chapter 7.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 4.
Homogeneous
Perfect
Free
Monopoly
Homogeneous (One
product )
Perfect
Large barriers to
entry
One
In relation to the final column, BVFD in this chapter essentially rule out
by assumption the entry to the industry of new firms (which would erode
monopoly profits). You should think about why this happens in practice.
Some barriers to entry are natural, for example the unique talents of a
singer or sports star (their monopoly profits are not eroded by the entry of
clones) while others are artificial, such as the monopoly position afforded,
perhaps temporarily, by licences, patents, tariffs and the like. Such
artificial barriers to entry can, in principle and often in reality, be removed
to introduce competition into previously monopolised industries.
BVFD: read section 8.6 and Maths 8.1.
Monopoly analysis
This section shows that profit maximisation for a monopolist, as for
a competitive firm, requires producing where MR = MC. But, unlike
the competitive case, MR is not equal to P it is less than P (see next
paragraph). This means that in profit maximising equilibrium, where
MR = MC, P > MC and this turns out to be the source of monopolys
inefficiency. You need to be sure that you really understand the monopoly
diagram, BVFD Figure 8.11. What follows spells out in a bit more detail
some aspects of the monopoly analysis.
To begin with it is crucial for you to understand why, in the case of
monopoly, MR < P (remember from the previous block that MR = P for
a competitive firm). This is explained in section 8.6, but here it is spelled
out in more detail. The downward sloping demand curve faced by the
monopolist means that if a monopolist wants to sell more output it will
have to lower the price. But the lower price applies to all of its output,
not just the marginal unit. Marginal revenue is the price the monopolist
receives for the marginal unit less the price reduction it must accept on
all the units previously sold at a higher price. This is demonstrated in the
following simple diagrammatic illustration.
100
10
9.5
10
11
Figure 8.1: Marginal revenue when the firm faces a downward sloping
demand curve.
When the price is 10, 10 units are sold and total revenue received by the
firm is 100. To sell an extra unit (the 11th unit) the price must fall to
9.5. This, however is not the firms net gain in revenue because it now
sells each of the previously sold 10 units for 9.5 rather than 10. The net
revenue, the marginal revenue, from selling the 11th unit is its price,
9.5, minus the reduced revenue on the first 10 units, i.e. 0.5 * 10 = 5.
Therefore MR = 9.5 5 = 4.5. So MR is less than price.
Activity SG8.1
As part of your studies of microeconomics, it is important for you to be able to draw the
cost and revenue curves for a typical monopolist.
a. Reproduce Figure 8.11, making note of the key points (the point where the MC and
MR curves cross, the price level the monopolist chooses, and the average cost at this
quantity) and highlighting the monopolists profit.
b. Illustrate a rise in costs (as described in the section comparative statics for a
monopolist).
c. Illustrate an increase in demand (as described in the section comparative statics for a
monopolist).
Rise in costs
Increase in demand
As noted above, cutting the price increases demand but reduces the
revenue on existing units. The effect on a firms total revenue depends on
the price elasticity of demand, as you will remember from Blocks 3 and 5.
This is described in more detail in this section, especially the maths box.
101
The formula in equation 7 (or 8) of the maths box is very useful. Although
the derivation in the box uses calculus, the intuition can be seen by using
the delta notation as follows2
TR = P * Q
TR = PQ + QP
Therefore we can write:
MR =
P
TR
=P+Q
Q
Q
Q P
.
P Q
=P 1
1
||
MR = P 1 +
which is equivalent to equations 7 and 8 in the maths box. Here you can
see straight away that if demand is inelastic, ||<1, MR is negative. This
shows concisely what is explained in the text, namely that a monopolist
will never operate on the inelastic portion of the demand curve. Also,
because MR = MC for profit maximisation, some further straightforward
manipulation yields:
1
P MC
=
||
P
1
|| , which is the proportionate mark-up of price over marginal cost, is
sometimes used as an index of monopoly power (the Lerner Index). In the
case of perfect competition this index is zero (P = MC, || = ). What is
the maximum value this could take in the case of monopoly?
The equation:
MR = P + Q
P
Q
can also be used to show a useful result for MR where the demand curve is
linear. Suppose the (inverse) demand curve is given by P = a bQ where
P
b is Q
, then substituting into the above equation gives MR = a 2bQ.
(Maths 8.1 shows the same result using calculus). Remember that this
is the case for linear (straight line) demand curves only. The marginal
revenue line has the same intercept on the P axis as the demand curve,
but is twice as steep. Thus, in Figure 8.10, the MR curve crosses the x-axis
at exactly half the quantity at which the demand curve crosses the x-axis
this is due to the fact that when P = a bQ, the DD curve crosses the
x-axis at a/b. The MR curve corresponding to this demand curve is MR =
a 2bQ. This curve crosses the x-axis at a/2b: exactly half the quantity at
which the demand curve crosses.
The following question requires you to use the result we have just
explained about the slope of the MR curve relative to the slope of the
demand curve in order to solve for the monopoly equilibrium:
102
Activity SG8.2
A monopolist faces an (inverse) demand curve given by P = 100 2Q. Marginal cost is
constant and equal to 16. Profit maximisation is achieved when price is equal to:
a. 45
b. 21
c. 58
d. 82
e. 16.
103
Solution
a. The MR curve has the same vertical intercept but twice the slope of the
demand curve. i.e.:
MR = 210 8Q
P, MR
210
D (AR)
26.25
52.5
Figure 8.2
104
Perfectly compeve
market
Pure monopoly
P
D
PM
MC
S
PC
PC
MR
QC
Consumer surplus
Producer surplus
QM
QC
Deadweight loss
The previous block described how the perfectly competitive model results
in outcomes which are both productive and allocative efficient. Productive
efficiency occurs because firms choose a quantity on their cost curves.
This applies to monopoly in the same way. Although monopolists are
not under pressure from competition to choose the cost-minimising mix
105
Price discrimination
BVFD: read section 8.8.
Although this section is titled A monopoly has no supply curve, which of
course is correct, perhaps the more important material in it is the analysis
of price discrimination. In fact, the basic point is that when firms have
market power (pure monopoly is the extreme case) they can, under certain
circumstances, employ pricing strategies which increase their profits by
raiding the consumer surplus of their customers. Two such strategies are
discussed in Chapter 8 of BVFD; price discrimination and the two-part
tariff (explained in section 8.10).
Up to this point we have taken it as given that there can be only one single
price charged for a unit of a homogeneous good. Imagine this were not the
case. There would be possibilities for mutual gains via arbitrage those
charged a low price could sell the good to those charged a high price; at
intermediate prices both parties gain. Arbitrage would continue until a
single price prevailed. Where such secondary markets are impossible or
can be prevented by simple monitoring strategies, firms with monopoly
power can increase their profits by charging different prices to different
consumers. Can you think of examples where it is difficult or impossible
for secondary markets to erode price differences? In the case of thirddegree price discrimination, by far the most common type in practice,3
BVFD show that the monopolist must equate MR in both sub-markets
(make sure you understand why) and set these equal to the common
value of MC. This leads to higher prices being charged in the sub-market
with the more inelastic demand. We can show this more rigorously using
the formula for MR derived above (and in Maths 8.1). Suppose in market
1 || = 1.5 and in market 2 || =3, then equating MR1 and MR2 gives
P1(11/1.5) = P2(11/3). This means P1/P2 = 2. The profit maximising
monopolist charges twice as much in the more inelastic market 1 than in
the more elastic market 2.
Activity SG8.4
Define first-, second- and third-degree price discrimination. For first-degree price
discrimination, draw graphs illustrating producer and consumer surplus compared to a
competitive industry and to a non-discriminating monopolist.
The two-part tariff is another strategy that, in essence, transfers surplus
from consumers to the monopolist. In BVFD this is explained in the context
of natural monopoly (section 8.10), but this strategy is found more widely
in the real world, not just in the case of natural monopolies. The basic idea
is simple. As in the case of price discrimination, market power enables
firms to transfer some or all consumer surplus from the buyer to the seller.
It does this by charging an entry or subscription fee and, in addition,
charging per unit of the good or service consumed. The per unit price is
106
3
But make sure you
understand the rather
remarkable result
that first-degree price
discrimination eliminates
the deadweight loss
associated with a single
price monopolist.
set to equal marginal cost and the fixed fee is set to equal the consumer
surplus for an individual consumer.
P
CS
P1
MC
Q1
total cost curve of the form TC = a + bQ where a is the fixed cost and b
the constant marginal cost. Here the falling AC comes about as the fixed
cost a is spread over larger outputs. Take the case of railways where there
are large fixed costs in setting up the track network but the marginal cost
per journey mile (Q) may be quite low in comparison. In this case it would
be very inefficient to have several providers each installing their own
parallel rail networks.
BVFD: read the summary and work through the review questions.
Overview
This block discussed the case of pure monopoly, where there is only
one firm and large barriers to entry, such that the monopolist faces no
competition from incumbent firms or even from potential entrants.
The profit-maximising output for the monopolist is discussed, with
the monopolist choosing the quantity where MC = MR. Price is higher
than MR for the monopolist. Just how much higher it is depends on the
elasticity of demand and indicates the degree of monopoly power for
that industry. Where a monopolist and a perfectly competitive market
can meaningfully be compared, a monopolist charges a higher price
and supplies a lower quantity of output. The allocative inefficiency of
monopoly is demonstrated by the loss of social surplus (called deadweight
loss) compared to the case of perfect competition.
A discriminating monopolist charges different prices to different
consumers. First-, second- and third-degree price discrimination are
explained, including the impact on output, price and profits. Monopolists
can also increase their profits by using a two-part pricing strategy. These
strategies transfer surplus from consumers to producers but reduce the
deadweight loss of the monopolist. Despite the allocative inefficiency of
monopoly, one possible advantage could be that monopoly profits provide
an incentive for firms to innovate. Furthermore, there are some industries
which work best as monopolies, these are called natural monopolies
and have a falling long-run average cost curve over the whole range of
production. These are generally industries with very large fixed costs such
as water, electricity and telecommunications, and are generally either
owned or heavily regulated by government.
108
109
Notes
110
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
recognise imperfect competition, oligopoly and monopolistic
competition
discuss how cost and demand affect market structure
interpret an N-firm concentration ratio
describe how globalisation changes domestic market structure
identify equilibrium in monopolistic competition
recognise the tension between collusion and competition in a cartel
describe game theory and strategic behaviour
define the concepts of commitment and credibility
analyse reaction functions and Nash equilibrium
describe Cournot and Bertrand competition
describe Stackelberg leadership
recognise why there is no market power in a contestable market
define innocent and strategic entry barriers.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 9.
111
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapter 7; UK edition,
Chapter 8.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 4.
112
Activity SG9.1
1. Calculate the four-firm concentration ratio of an industry with the following
distribution of sales: 40%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 8%, 8%, 6% 4% 2% 1% 1%.
a. 100%
b. 80%
c. 70%
d. 40%.
Monopolistic competition
BVFD: read section 9.2.
Monopolistic competition describes a market structure with a large number
of firms, each one selling a product which is an imperfect substitute
for the product of its rivals (this is called product differentiation). Each
firm faces a downward sloping demand curve for its product. Firms in a
monopolistically competitive industry are not price-takers; they have some
market power and can set the price they charge. If they increase price
they will lose some customers, but not all. If they drop their price they
will gain some market share but will not capture the whole market. Since
the number of firms is large, they can ignore any reactions of competitors
when they make their output and pricing decisions. A further important
assumption of this model is that there is free entry and exit. When a new
firm enters the industry, it will take customers from all existing firms,
shifting the demand curve faced by each firm to the left.
The key element that makes monopolistic competition different to perfect
competition is that firms face a downward sloping demand curve rather
than a horizontal demand curve (i.e. demand for their products is not
perfectly elastic as it is in perfect competition). Since this is due to product
differentiation (the assumption that the goods are heterogeneous), firms
have a strong incentive to advertise their products either to inform
customers about what makes their product different, or to create and
enhance customers perceptions of this difference. If advertising is effective,
it can increase the demand for a product and also decrease the elasticity of
that demand, both of which can lead to an increase in revenue for the firm.
Activity SG9.2
Figure 9.2 shows the short-run and long-run equilibria for a firm in a monopolistically
competitive market. Remember that the demand curves DD and DD (and the associated
MR curves) refer to a single firm in the market. The market demand curve, of course,
lies further to the right. Make sure you understand this figure by reproducing it below,
highlighting:
i. the short-run monopoly profits
ii. the tangency of the DD curve and the AC curve in long-run equilibrium.
113
In the long run, the price charged by firms is equal to the average cost and
they are just breaking even. In industries where there are many producers
but of differentiated products, free entry will tend to eliminate profits in
the long run.
Oligopoly
BVFD: read section 9.3.
An oligopoly is a market structure characterised by there being only a few
firms, which interact strategically. Firms are aware that their decisions
affect the actions of other firms and that their own optimal decisions
depend on what the other firms are doing. The basic tension is between
wanting to collaborate to achieve a monopoly outcome, and the incentives
to cheat on any agreement so as to raise ones own market share and
profits. Examples of oligopolies in the UK include the supermarket
industry (dominated by Tesco, Sainsbury, Morrison and ASDA) and retail
banking (dominated by Barclays, Lloyds, the Royal Bank of Scotland
and HSBC). Note the discussion of OPEC in the section on cartels was
written before world oil prices again plummeted in mid-2014. There has
been much debate about the causes of this downturn in oil prices (in
particular, whether it is primarily demand-driven or supply-driven), but
the unwillingness of the Saudis to restrict output, discussed in BVFD, is
certainly one element in the story
Oligopolistic industries tend to be dominated by a few large
firms. One reason for this is that large firms often have a competitive
advantage because their fixed costs (e.g. research and development) can
be spread out over a greater sales volume so the per unit cost is reduced. A
further reason is that large firms can exploit economies of scale and scope,
which creates natural entry barriers. Economies of scale arise because a
large scale facilitates the division of labour, which increases productivity.
Economies of scope apply to firms that produce multiple products and
arise because firms can share resources or functions between different
114
Game theory
BVFD: read section 9.4.
Considering the extent to which game theory has revolutionised much of
modern industrial organisation theory, and oligopoly theory in particular,
the treatment here in BVFD is relatively brief (although the treatment in
this section is expanded in section 9.7 of the text). Game theory is a very
useful approach for analysing strategic interaction. In a game, your best
move depends on what your opponent does. This is helpful for analysing
oligopoly, since one of the key features of this market structure is strategic
interaction between firms. One key concept is a dominant strategy
a player has a dominant strategy if one strategy is their best response,
regardless of what the other player does. In Figure 9.5, choosing a high
output is a dominant strategy for each firm. Another key concept is Nash
equilibrium this is a situation where no player has an incentive to
change their strategy, since they are doing as well as they can, given the
strategies chosen by the other players. Note that in Figure 9.5 the Nash
equilibrium is, unsurprisingly, the pair of dominant strategies. However it
is not necessary that both firms have a dominant strategy for there to be a
Nash Equilibrium.
115
Activity SG9.3
The high-output/low-output game is based on a famous game called the Prisoners
dilemma. McGraw Hill has a nice interactive version of this which you can access at
http://highered.mheducation.com/sites/007243404x/student_view0/chapter9/interactive_
activities.html# (though the question appears to be slightly misworded). The prisoners
dilemma is described below. Read through the scenario and decide what you would do if
you were one of the prisoners
You and your partner were just arrested for the burglary you pulled off last
night, and are being interrogated separately in different rooms. The officer
says to you Well, looks like youve got some decisions to make here. You can
confess to the burglary or you can continue to deny any role in it. Your problem
is that the consequence for you depends on what your partner does. If he
confesses and you dont, well throw the book at you and give him immunity.
You get 10 years in jail and he goes free. Of course, the reverse would be true
if you confess and he doesnt. If you both confess, youd both get a lighter
sentence, 5 years. If you both insist on denying the charges, we should have
enough evidence to get you both for 1 year for sure.
Now answer the following questions:
a. What does the payoff matrix for this game look like? (base this on Figure 9.5) (it is
conventional to make the payoff for the player, on the left hand side of the payoff
matrix, the row player, the first entry in each cell and the payoffs for the player at
the top of the matrix, the column player second).
b. Does either player have a dominant strategy?
c. Does this strategy result in the best joint outcome for the prisoners?
d. Does this strategy result in the best outcome for the police?
The game in Figure 9.5, and the traditional prisoners dilemma you have
just worked through are one-off games (sometimes called one shot
games). Many real world economic decisions, such as firms setting prices
or quantities, relate to repeated actions rather than one off moves. This
can quite dramatically change the expected outcomes. The intuition is
that repeated games provide incentives for cooperation that are absent in
one-off games; in a repeated game, honest behaviour can be rewarded and
cheating can be punished (it is necessary that the threat of punishment is
a credible threat). See the McGraw-Hill interactive version for a second
game on repeated interactions.
Models of oligopoly
BVFD: read section 9.5, Maths 9.1 and 9.2 and concept 9.2.
This section covers models of oligopoly (illustrated in the two-firm
case, a duopoly) that preceded game theory by many years (Cournot
and Bertrand were 19th-century French mathematical economists and
Stackelberg, a German economist, first published his analysis in 1934).
While it is often possible to reformulate the models in game theoretic
terms, it is instructive to understand the structure of such models.
Cournot model
The graphical analysis of the Cournot model is useful if you find the
mathematics in Maths box 9.1 difficult. If you dont, the mathematical
treatment is more concise. Note that Maths box 9.1 uses calculus in
deriving the reaction functions. But in the last chapter, we showed that for
116
a linear demand curve the MR curve has the same intercept on the P axis,
but is twice as steep. Let us see how this works out in the example BVFD
use in the maths box.
We are given the market demand curve P = a bQ, which we can write as
P = a bQA bQB. Now we want to write firm As MR curve as a function of
its own output, holding its rivals output constant, so using the result from
the last chapter, MRA= a 2bQA bQB .
Although calculus is the most straightforward means, there is an
alternative method of finding MC. Using delta notation as before,
TCA = cQA. Therefore:
TC MC = c
=
A
QA
aC
aQB
)
2b
2
and similarly for firm B. Solve the two reaction functions simultaneously
to get the Nash equilibrium in quantities. The same method can be used,
with suitable variations (for example in deriving the MR function for firm
A we first substitute Bs reaction function into the demand curve), in the
case of a Stackelberg leader to replace the calculus in Maths box 9.2.
Activity SG9.4
Consider a market for a homogeneous product with demand given by Q = 37.5 P/4.
There are two firms, each with a constant marginal cost equal to 40.
a. Determine output and price under a Cournot equilibrium.
b. Compute the deadweight loss as a percentage of the deadweight loss under a nondiscriminating monopolist.
Activity SG9.5
Which model of strategic duopoly interaction (Cournot or Bertrand) would you think
provides a better approximation to each of the following industries, and why?
i. oil refining
ii. insurance.
Stackelberg model
Activity SG9.6
Suppose there are two firms with the same constant average and marginal cost,
AC = MC = 5, facing the market demand curve Q1 + Q2 = 53 P. Firm 1 is a Stackelberg
leader and makes its output decision before Firm 2 (a Cournot follower).
a. Find the reaction curves that tell each firm how much to produce in terms of the
output of its competitor and use these to calculate how much each firm will produce
and the profits it will make, as well as the market price and the total market profit.
b. If each firm believes that it is the Stackelberg leader, while the other firm is the
Cournot follower, how much will each firm produce, and what will its profit be?
c. In the Stackelberg model, the firm that sets output first has an advantage. Explain
why.
117
Contestable market
BVFD: read section 9.6.
A contestable market is a market structure in which there are only a few
companies which nonetheless behave in a competitive manner due to the
threat of new entrants. Globalisation has increased the relevance of this
concept, since foreign firms which are already established in overseas
markets can enter more easily into a domestic market than firms which
need to start production from scratch.
This section also refines the concept of barriers to entry, which we
considered in the previous block on monopoly. There, we differentiated
between natural and artificial barriers to entry, but this was not the only
way to characterise different types of entry barriers. Here BVFD makes a
similar, but not identical, distinction between innocent and non-innocent
barriers to entry. Other texts distinguish between structural barriers, legal
barriers and strategic barriers, the latter referring to deliberate actions
taken by incumbent firms to deter entry by new firms. These types of entry
barriers are discussed in the next section.
Sequential games
BVFD: read section 9.7.
The game discussed in this section is represented again below with an
alternative presentation of the payoffs, for clarity. Sequential games such
as this are often represented with the payoffs at the end of the relevant
path. As stated below the diagram, in each case the first payoff in each
set of brackets is the incumbents, the second the potential entrants. This
depiction, and that in Figure 9.9, is known as the extensive form of the
game (sometimes also known as a decision tree).
Without strategic
entry deterrence
With strategic
entry deterrence
Entrant
Entrant
In
In
Out
Incumbent
Accept
(1,1)
Accept
Fight
(-1,-2)
(5,0)
Out
Incumbent
(-2,1)
Fight
(-1,-1)
(2,0)
Let us start with the case where there has been no strategic entry
deterrence, for example there has been no investment in excess capacity
which can be used to quickly flood the market with extra output. This is
shown as the game on the left above, and in the top row in the matrix in
Figure 9.9. Sequential games can be solved by backwards induction,
which means starting from the final step of the game. In this case, only
118
one leg of the decision tree involves a decision by the incumbent (i.e.
the left leg). The incumbent can either choose between a payoff of 1 (if
it accepts the entry without fighting) or 1 (if it fights). It will choose 1.
The threat to fight entry is not a credible one in this case. Now going back
to the first step of the game, where the entrant has a decision to make.
The entrant can either choose a payoff of 1 (if it enters, since it knows the
best move for the incumbent will be to accept its entry) or 0 (if it does
not enter). It chooses 1. The outcome of the game is thus that the entrant
enters and the incumbent accepts. Both make a profit of 1. Now for the
case where the incumbent has taken steps to deter entry the game on
the right (the second row in Figure 9.9). As described in the textbook, this
could be by investing in spare capacity which is only useful if it chooses to
fight a market entrant. Starting again with the second part of the game,
the incumbent chooses between a payoff of 2 (if it accepts) and 1 (if
it fights). It will choose 1. The entrant thus faces the following choice:
a payoff of 1 (if it enters and the incumbent fights), or a payoff of 0 (if
it doesnt enter). It will choose 0. Thus the outcome of the game is that
the entrant does not enter and the incumbent makes a profit of 2. As
compared to the first case (no spare capacity) the incumbents threat to
fight is credible, it does better by fighting than by accepting. Sequential
games and backward induction are useful tools for analysing this type of
market interaction. However, certain key assumptions are required, for
example that both players have accurate knowledge of the whole decision
tree, including the payoffs of their opponent.
BVFD: read section 9.8 and the summary, and work through the review
questions.
Overview
Market structure is partly determined by firms minimum efficient scale
(the lowest point at which a firms LAC curve stops falling) relative to
the size of the total market as shown by the demand curve. Imperfect
competition exists when firms face a downward sloping demand curve.
The most important forms of imperfect competition are monopolistic
competition, oligopoly and pure monopoly. The key characteristic of a
monopolistically competitive market is product differentiation, which gives
each firm some limited monopoly power in its special brand. There is free
entry and exit. In long-run equilibrium, the demand curve is tangent to
the firms LAC curve, and price is equal to average cost but is greater than
marginal cost and marginal revenue.
The key characteristic of oligopoly is strategic interaction. Oligopoly is
often portrayed using a kinked demand curve. Firms can either compete or
collude, though many forms of collusion are illegal in domestic markets.
Strategic interaction can be analysed using game theory. The outcome
will depend on whether the game is played once or repeatedly, and if it
is possible for firms to make binding commitments. A specific example of
oligopoly is duopoly, where there are only two firms. In a Cournot duopoly,
each firm treats the other firms output as given. In a Bertrand duopoly,
each firm treats the other firms price as given. If one firm moves first, that
firm is a Stackelberg leader and will gain higher payoffs than the firm which
follows.
The outcomes of these forms of interaction can be compared with the
outcomes that arise under monopoly and under perfect competition.
In some oligopolistic industries, firms manage to approach joint profit
maximisation (in this case, the outcome in terms of market price and
119
Bus Company B
Leave Early
Leave Late
900
1,000
850
950
650
750
800
700
In
Out
Accept
15, 10
50, 0
Fight
10, 20
50, 0
2. a. Monopolistic competition:
i. What are the particular characteristics of monopolistic
competition as a market structure?
ii. Draw a short-run equilibrium for monopolistic competition
where the firms are making losses, and show how exit results
in a new, long-run equilibrium.
iii. Is this outcome efficient?
121
b. Concentration ratios:
In the USA, the four-firm concentration ratio for beer increased
from 22 to 95 between 1950 and 2000. Explain what this means
and describe possible reasons for why this occurred.
122
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
describe the factors of production
analyse a firms demand for inputs in the long run and short run
recognise marginal value product, marginal revenue product and
marginal cost of a factor
define the industry demand for labour
analyse labour supply decisions
define economic rent
define labour market equilibrium and disequilibrium
demonstrate how minimum wages affect unemployment.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 10.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapters 8 and 9; UK edition,
Chapters 9 and 10.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 5.
123
124
Supplied by
Consumed in production?
Speed of adjustment
Land
Nature
No
Labour
Individual people
No
Fast
Capital
Firms (generally)
Not fully
Medium
126
MRQ = P 1 +
where is price elasticity of demand for output, the hiring rule becomes to
hire labour up to the point where
1
.MPL
W=P 1+
20
MPL
MVPL()
2
This is the basis for one
of the Hicks-Marshall
laws of derived demand:
other things equal the
elasticity of labour
demand with respect to
the wage is high when
the price elasticity of
demand for output is
high.
Wage rate ()
7
30
37
42
44
Labour supply
BVFD: read section 10.4 and Maths 10.2, as well as case 10.1.
This section applies the theory of consumer choice to an individuals
decisions of how to allocate their time between hours of leisure and
hours of paid work3 for individuals who are in the labour force as well as
the decision about whether or not to participate in paid work in the first
place. You should treat Maths 10.2 as an integral part of this section, not
an optional extra. In fact, even the diagrammatic treatment in Maths 10.2
does not go far enough in that, although it indicates whether the income
or substitution effect dominates for a given wage change, it does not show
these effects separately in the first diagram of the Maths box. You are
now asked to remedy this shortcoming by drawing for yourself a choice
diagram which does show the separate income and substitution effects.
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Activity SG10.4
On a blank piece of paper, draw a large diagram showing a budget constraint and
indifference curve for three different wage levels, such that it can be used to derive a
backwards-bending labour supply curve. For each of the two increases in the wage level,
clearly indicate the income and substitution effects, noting which is larger in each case
(you may need to refer back to Figure 5.14 in Chapter 5 to remember how income and
substitution effects can be distinguished graphically).
This section of the text assumes that leisure is a normal good4, more of it
will be consumed as real income increases. This is likely to be a realistic
assumption, in practice, for most people. However, suppose that leisure is, in
fact, an inferior good. How would this change the analysis of income versus
substitution effects? Could there be a backward bending labour supply curve
in such circumstances?
Participation rates
One important concept from this section is the reservation wage the
lowest wage a worker is willing to accept to work in a given occupation.
For this section, pay attention to the way that the four main factors which
increase participation are represented graphically, as per Figure 10.5.
Activity SG10.5
Match the factor which increases participation to the description of the graphical
representation of this factor in Figure 10.5.
Higher real hourly wage rate
Shorter distance AC
Shorter distance BC
Labour mobility
The extent of labour mobility into and out of an industry affects the slope of
the industrys labour supply curve and the extent to which this curve shifts
when there is a change in wages in other industries. When there is a high
degree of labour mobility, wage increases in one industry easily flow over
into other industries. Labour mobility is a crucially important determinant
of a countrys economic efficiency, both in static terms, ensuring labour is
128
4
In fact they make
the even stronger
claim that leisure is
probably a luxury good.
Remind yourself of the
distinction between a
normal and a luxury
good (Block 3 BVFD
section 4.6).
W2
Demand
N3
N1
N2
Employment
Monopsony
A single purchaser in any market is called a monopsonist. When an
employer is a monopsonist, workers must either accept the wage offered,
or move to a different market. The analysis of monopsony in the labour
market is, in effect, the mirror image of the monopoly analysis of a firm
in the product market. The labour supply curve is upward sloping, since
more workers will be willing to work when the wage is higher. The
upward sloping labour supply curve represents the average cost curve
of labour for the monopsonist. The marginal cost of labour lies above
129
discussed.
Wage discrimination
BVFD: read section 10.8.
Wage discrimination refers to a situation where equally productive
workers are paid differently based on a characteristic such as age, race
or gender. This section discusses two explanations for this taste-based
discrimination and statistical discrimination. Taste-based discrimination
means the employer (themselves or possibly due to their customers) has
some distaste for hiring a particular type of worker and reduces their
objective MRPL by some factor to a subjective amount MRPL d. This
leads to fewer of this type of worker being employed and those that are
being employed at a lower wage rate.6 Statistical discrimination means
that employers may act on the idea that membership of a particular
group may carry information about a persons productivity. Underlying
uncertainty regarding an applicants true productivity can motivate the
employer to examine statistics about the average performance of the group
to which the applicant belongs and to use this to predict their productivity
and making hiring decisions on this basis. This can benefit members of
high-productivity groups and be a disadvantage for members of lowerproductivity groups.
When observing two groups with different wages we may be interested in
what part of the raw wage differential is due to productivity differences
and what part is due to discrimination. In the BVFD treatment it is
assumed that the two groups are equally productive, but this may not
always be the case. In practice, the raw wage differential may be partly
due to productivity differentials and partly due to discrimination. Take the
case of the lower earnings of older workers. In some industries, especially
where productivity depends on physical strength, older workers may
indeed be less productive, but there may also be age discrimination in
the labour market. Effective anti-discrimination policy needs to target the
discrimination part of the raw differential. Statistical techniques have been
devised to decompose the raw differential into its separate productivity
and discrimination components. While these decomposition techniques
are quite widely used in the empirical labour economics literature they are
subject to a number of well known weaknesses.
BVFD: read the summary and work through the review questions.
Overview
The three main factors of production are labour, capital and land. Labour
includes all forms of effort supplied by people to those who employ them
for monetary remuneration. Physical capital is the stock of produced
goods that are used in the production of other goods and services. Land
comprises all free gifts of nature such as land, forests, minerals etc.
Firms choose a production technique to minimise the cost of producing
a particular output level. By considering each level of output, they can
construct a total cost curve. Factor demand curves are derived demands.
A shift in the output demand curve for the industry will shift the derived
factor demand curve in the same direction. A firm will hire a variable
131
factor until its marginal cost equals its marginal value product (or
marginal revenue product in the case of a firm which is not a price taker).
A rise in the price of a factor reduces the quantity demanded of that factor
due to both substitution and output effects. A rise in the price of another
factor leads to an increase in demand due to the substitution effect and a
decrease in demand for that factor due to the output effect. It is unclear
which of these effects will dominate.
The supply of labour depends in part on the decisions of individuals to
participate in the labour force and also on the number of hours they
choose to supply. Four things raise the participation rate in the labour
force: higher real wage rates, lower fixed costs of working, lower nonlabour income and changes in tastes in favour of working. Higher wages
impact on the hours of work decision through both a substitution effect,
tending to increase the supply of hours worked, and an income effect,
which at high wage levels tends to reduce the supply of hours worked.
This leads to the labour-supply curve being backward bending. The
industry supply curve of labour depends on the wage paid relative to
wages in other industries using similar skills. Workers in unpleasant jobs
are often paid compensating wage differentials. Workers earning above
their reservation wage are said to be earning economic rent.
The wage is the rental price of labour but certain factors may lead to
wage levels being above the equilibrium level, leading to unemployment
in the labour market. These factors include minimum wage agreements,
trade unions, scale economies, insideroutsider distinctions and efficiency
wages. Discrimination may lead to workers from different groups being
paid different wages.
132
133
Notes
134
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
define welfare economics
describe horizontal and vertical equity
discuss the concept of Pareto efficiency
recognise how the invisible hand may achieve efficiency
define the concept of market failure
recognise why partial removal of distortions may be harmful
identify the problem of externalities and possible solutions
discuss how monopoly power causes market failure
analyse distortions from pollution and congestion
discuss why missing markets create distortions
analyse the economics of climate change.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 13.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapter 11; UK edition,
Chapter 13.
Witztum (AW), Chapters 6 and 7.
136
1
It is sometimes
argued that a policy
rule would be to
accept a reallocation
if the winners could
compensate the losers
(in which case there
is a potential Pareto
improvement). However
if the losers are not
actually compensated
then we again require
value judgements to
decide whether the
reallocation is desirable
on equity grounds.
Output of
good A
B
C
D
E
Output of good B
2
Why are these three
combinations Pareto
efficient? If person1
has no bananas then
any trade that makes
him better off must
involve him getting at
least twice as many
bananas as he gives up
in oranges, which results
in person2 being worse
off. Similarly, if person2
has no oranges then any
trade that makes her
better off must involve
her getting at least
twice as many oranges
as she gives up in
bananas, which results
in person1 being worse
off. On the other hand,
if person1 has some
bananas and person2
has some oranges, then
by transferring one
banana from person1
to person2 and one
orange from person2 to
person1, both of them
are made better off.
137
A
C
B
Davids
Utility
BVFD and the utility possibility curve Figure 11.2 above have goods/utility
for Susie and David on the horizontal and vertical axes thus they both
focus explicitly on allocation. These curves are constructed in such a way
that all points on the curve are Paretoefficient (implying productive and
allocative efficiency) and the optimal choice requires judgements about
equity, as indicated by the social welfare function.
BVFD: read section 13.2, as well as concepts 13.1 and 13.2.
General equilibrium
BVFD: read concept 13.1 general equilibrium.
Concept box 13.1 takes a general equilibrium perspective. Up to now, we
have examined equilibrium in markets for a single good or a single factor
of production, this is known as a partial equilibrium approach. General
equilibrium refers to a situation where multiple (or all) markets are
simultaneously in equilibrium. For interested students, there is a detailed
explanation of general equilibrium in AW Chapter 6, section 1.
Concept box 13.2 shows a general equilibrium between two consumers
in an exchange economy, but at the level of the market we can use our
basic supply and demand analysis to analyse general equilibrium. We
need to move from a partial to a general equilibrium approach when
there is significant interdependence between markets; where markets
are completely independent of each other, partial equilibrium analysis
suffices. The following activity is designed to help you to understand how
two markets interact and how equilibrium is attained when the goods
are substitutes. The technique is applicable also in input markets and for
complementary goods or factors.
139
Activity SG11.1
Coffee and tea are substitutes. The demand for each depends on its own price as well as
the price of its substitute. Supply and demand curves are given as follows:
Coffee demand:
Q DC = 60 6PC + 4PT
Coffee supply:
Q SC = 3PC
Tea demand:
Q DT = 20 2PT + PC
Tea supply:
Q ST = 2PT
3
Named after Francis
Ysidro Edgeworth
(18451926) a pioneer
of neo-classical
economics, especially
utility theory (including
indifference curves). He
was the founding editor
ofThe Economic Journal,
the most prestigious
British academic journal
of economics.
Activity SG11.2
Household A and B of an exchange economy with two goods x and y have the utility
functions UA(xA, yA) = (xA)(yA), and UB(xB, yB) = (xB)(yB). Household A has the initial
endowment (xA0, yA0) = (10,16) and Household B has (xB0, yB0) = (25,12).
a. Illustrate the initial endowment in an Edgeworth box
b. Assuming that this point is not on the contract curve, draw possible indifference
curves for the two households and indicate the area where trade could result in an
improvement for both households (you can draw standard indifference curves without
reference to the utility functions given above).
y
c. Given the utility functions above, the MRS of Household A is MRSA = xAA and the
y
MRS of household B is MRSB = xBB . Use this information to find the Pareto optimal
point when the price of x is 0.80 and the price of y is 1.00 (i.e. the relative price
is 0.80). Clearly state which household sells which quantity of which good and the
final Pareto-optimal allocation.
d. Calculate the utility of the two households at the initial endowment and at the new
optimal point.
e. Draw your solution onto your graph along with the budget constraint and the new
utility curves at this point. Also draw the contract curve on your diagram.
141
market power
asymmetric information
taxation
common property
public goods
missing markets
externalities
Common property
All of these are described in BVFD except common property, which refers
to a resource such as fishing grounds or common grazing land, which is
open to everyone, but where one persons activities detract from the total
available to everyone (in this sense common property can be thought of
as a kind of externality). For example, fish in the ocean can be caught
by anyone, but once one is caught, no-one else can catch it. Common
property tends to be over used, leading to a degradation or depletion
of the resource. This is because individuals only take into account their
private costs and benefits and neglect the social cost of their actions.
For this reason, various kinds of sea life are nearing extinction due to
overfishing. This problem applies to any common resource which is
unregulated.
Activity SG11.3
Here is a game-theoretic treatment of the common property problem. Suppose both
England and Norway fish in the North Sea. Both countries know that their fish supplies
are being depleted and that this depletion could be slowed down if they both cut their
fishing fleets in half. The matrix below shows the payoff for both countries (Englands
payoff is first entry in each cell) with unchanged and halved fleets. Will they agree
between them to reduce their fleets? (Hint: what is the Nash equilibrium?). Should they?
Norway
England
10 boats
5 boats
10 boats
300, 300
550, 250
5 boats
250, 550
500, 500
Externalities
BVFD: read section 13.5 and case 13.1.
This section explores in greater detail one of the sources of distortions
listed above externalities. Externalities can either be positive or negative
and occur when there is a divergence between the private marginal costs
and benefits and the social marginal costs and benefits of production
and consumption. If a restaurant plays loud music, this could be either a
positive or negative externality for the restaurant next door, depending
on whether that restaurants clients like the music and are attracted to
eat there because of it, or if it detracts from their dining experience and
makes them less likely to choose that restaurant. In the case of a negative
externality, the restaurant playing the loud music may be required to
compensate its neighbour for their lost customers. In the case of a positive
externality, they could even ask the neighbouring restaurant to contribute
to the costs of playing the music, since that restaurant is also gaining a
benefit from it. The issue with externalities is that these payments will not
generally occur unless there is regulation, because there is no market for
the externality. The amount of noise produced by the first restaurant will
therefore be inefficient either too much (ignoring the negative impact on
its neighbour) or too little (ignoring the positive impact on its neighbour).
142
Activity SG11.4
Using the equations below, find the level of production which will occur without
regulation and the socially optimal level of production, and calculate the social cost of
the externality. Graph your answers and shade in the area representing the social loss of
inefficient production.
Example 1: Grating, unpleasant music
Demand: DD = 40 0.3*Q
Marginal private cost: MPC = 10
Marginal social cost: MSC = 10 + 0.1*Q.
Example 2: Beautiful, pleasant music
Marginal private benefit: MPB = 20 0.2*Q
Marginal social benefit: MSB = 24 0.2*Q
Marginal cost: MPC = MSC = 4 + 0.2*Q.
As the next section BVFD Chapter 13 will discuss, we live in an age where
the theory of externalities is ever more important; climate change, the
effects of pollution on human health and biological diversity, and many
other examples are increasingly at the centre of policy debates. This
section of BVFD covers the assignment of property rights as a method of
dealing with externalities, postponing the use of taxes and subsidies to
achieve similar ends until the next chapter, although if you want to look at
Figure 14.7 and the accompanying text that would fit in with the current
analysis. It is important to realise that, just as the optimal size of the
neighbours tree is not zero in the example illustrated in Figure 13.7, the
fact that industrial production generates pollution as a side effect does not
mean that the socially optimal level of pollution is zero; what is required
is that the marginal cost of pollution is equal to the marginal benefit (if it
seems strange to you that pollution can have benefits, consider the effect
on the costs of production of requiring firms to reduce pollution levels).
BVFD: read Maths box 13.1.
This maths box provides a mathematical explanation of Coase theorem,
which states that an efficient use of resources can be achieved through
the allocation of property rights, and that this is not affected by whether
the party causing the externality or the party suffering from it is given
the property rights. In the story in this Maths box, the right to pollute
is given to Firm A. Since Firm A can sell this right to Firm B, the cost
and revenue functions of Firm B become relevant to Firm As production
decisions. For this reason, Firm A will decide on a level of polluting where
the marginal private cost is equal to the marginal social cost the efficient
level of pollution in this scenario. As the textbook suggests, try to work
out the case where B is given ownership of the right to pollute. Please
work through the maths box to absorb the basic ideas behind the Coase
theorem (and also understand the reasons why it may be difficult to apply
in practice).
BVFD: read section 13.6 and activity 13.1.
The analysis of greenhouse gas emissions is an application of the principles
discussed in section 13.5 namely a situation where marginal social
costs dramatically exceed marginal private costs. Having determined the
optimal level of emissions in the aggregate, the key economic principle in
terms of achieving this target efficiently is the equalisation of the marginal
143
144
Overview
This block provides an introduction to welfare economics, which involves
normative judgements as to how well the economy is working. Two
key concepts are equity (horizontal and vertical equity) and efficiency
(productive and allocative efficiency, as well as Pareto efficiency). The
textbook shows that perfect competition, under strict assumptions, is
Pareto efficient, since under perfect competition MC = MB = P. Much of
economic policy making concerns a conflict between equity and efficiency.
For example, redistributive taxes improve vertical equity but are not
allocative efficient. Perfectly competitive markets are rare in practice
and, in reality, there are many distortions which lead to market failure.
Distortions occur whenever free market equilibrium does not equate
marginal social cost and marginal social benefit. Key sources of distortions
are taxes, imperfect competition, externalities, and missing markets. The
first best solution to a distortion is to remove it and restore efficiency,
however, if distortions cannot be removed or if policy makers would rather
leave them in place than lose the benefits to equity that arise through these
distortions, the second-best solution is to spread distortions widely over
many markets rather than concentrating the distortion in a single market,
looking for ways in which distortions can be offsetting rather reinforcing.
A major cause of market failure is externalities there are both production
or consumption externalities and these can be either positive or negative.
An externality occurs when there is a divergence of private and social
costs and benefits due to the absence of a market for the externality itself.
Inefficiencies can also occur due to information problems, such as moral
hazard, adverse selection and incomplete information. Regulations provide
information and express societys value judgements about intangibles.
145
146
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
define different kinds of government spending
discuss why public goods cannot be provided by a market
identify average and marginal tax rates
discuss how taxes can compensate for externalities
describe functional and personal distributions of income
explain what a Gini coefficient measures and compare Ginis across
different countries or time periods
define supply-side economics
describe why tax revenue cannot be raised without limit
recognise how cross-border flows limit national economic sovereignty
describe the political economy within which governments set policy.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 14 and Chapter 11
section 11.9 and concept 11.2.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapter 12; UK edition,
Chapter 14.
Witztum (AW), Chapters 6 and 7.
will fail to provide the optimal quantities of pubic goods and merit and
demerit goods. Public goods are goods which are non-rival and nonexcludable. As such, the free-rider problem and transaction costs will
mean they are under-provided by free markets. The government also plays
an important role in redistributing incomes to promote greater equality.
This block provides an introduction to taxation, including types of taxes,
their deadweight burden, tax incidence, and the relationship between
tax rates and revenues (as demonstrated by the Laffer curve). Finally,
the block explores further topics related to government including local
government, national economic sovereignty in the face of increasing global
interdependence, and political economy including political equilibrium,
incentives to adopt particular policies and the importance of the median
voter.
Government functions
BVFD: read the introduction to Chapter 14 and section 14.1.
There are certain basic functions which governments have carried out
throughout history (albeit more or less effectively); these include defence
against invasions from other nations, the protection of private property,
and the enforcement of law and order. As L&C (UK edition p,301;
international edition p.226) summarise: within a secure framework of
law and order, and well-defined and enforced property rights and other
essential institutions, a modern economy can function at least moderately
well without further government assistance. The previous chapter
discussed how in perfectly competitive markets, the price mechanism
and the invisible hand lead to an efficient allocation of resources. It
also discussed reasons why markets fail and the role of government in
improving outcomes in these cases. Another key role of government is to
influence the distribution of incomes within a society so as to promote
greater equality. This is often achieved through transfer spending
providing benefit payments that are funded through taxation. Government
frequently also sponsors education and healthcare, for example with the
aim that at least a basic level is available to all citizens. Social protection,
health and education are the three largest segments of the government
spending pie chart in Figure 14.2.
The size of government is expressed by the amount it spends, relative to
GDP, and the optimal size is a matter of debate. The introduction to this
chapter provides a historical perspective on how the size of government
has changed in recent times.
Taxation
The key source of government revenue is taxation. The introduction
provides definitions of marginal and average tax rates as well as
progressive and regressive taxes. The marginal rate does not apply to the
whole amount of income, but is rather the tax paid on the last pound of
income. The average tax rate, on the other hand, is calculated by dividing
the total tax paid by the total income. The graphs below are based on
Table 14.3 from BVFD and depict marginal and average tax rates for
the two periods in the table. When the marginal tax rate lies above the
average tax rate, the average rate will always be rising.
148
1978/79
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
5,500
2008/09
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
5,500
Figure 12.1: UK marginal and average tax rates based on Table 14.3 of BVFD.
Progressive
Proportional
Regressive
Personal Income
Figure 12.2: Progressive, proportional and regressive taxes.
149
Public goods
Markets tend to deal best with private goods, but there are several other
types of goods which exist. These categories depend on the combinations
of two distinct characteristics: rivalry and excludability, as defined in
BVFD. The table below clarifies all four theoretical types of goods with
examples.
Excludable
Non-excludable
Private goods
Common property
Rival
Non-rival
(up to capacity)
Club goods
Public goods
Activity SG12.1
Complete the following table:
Good
Excludable/
non-excludable?
Rival/
non-rival?
Type of good
Air
Bacon
Coal
House
Private park
Publicly broadcast radio
Satellite
Timber
between private and public good equilibria can be characterised, for the
case of N consumers, as follows:
Private good (perfect competition):
q1 + q2 + ... + qN = Q
MB1 = MB2 = ... = MBN = P =MC
Public good:
q1 = q2 = ... = qN = Q
MB1 + MB2 + ... + MBN = MSB =MC
where qi are individual quantities and Q is total quantity. The MBs are
private marginal benefits, MSB is social marginal benefit and MC is
marginal cost.
Gini coefficient
Income inequality can be measured by the Gini coefficient, which
measures the extent to which the distribution of income (or consumption
expenditure) among individuals or households within an economy
deviates from a perfectly equal distribution, such that a zero coefficient
represents a perfectly equal distribution and an index of 100 implies
maximum inequality. This measure, although it has a number of wellknown shortcomings, is widely used in comparisons of inequality across
countries and over time. Incomes are more unequally distributed in the
UK today than 30 years ago. The Gini coefficient for the UK rose from
0.25 in 1979 to 0.36 in 200708. Worldwide, Gini coefficients range from
approximately 0.23 (Sweden) to 0.70 (Namibia), though there may be
other countries for which reliable data are not available and estimates
differ depending on the data and definitions used.
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2
www.theguardian.
com/business/2014/
mar/17/oxfam-reportscale-britain-growingfinancial-inequality
Cuba
India
Hungary
Sweden
UK
USA
Note: Ginis calculated after taxes and benefits (this tends to lower Gini
coefficients compared to Ginis calculated before transfers)
Focusing especially on Sweden, the UK and the USA, which are all at a
similar stage of development and have a similar per capita GDP, it seems
that greater market freedom is associated with higher levels of income
inequality. Countries which are more concerned about achieving income
equality may therefore display higher levels of government involvement in
the economy, such as higher income taxes or greater spending on health
and education.
Principles of taxation
BVFD: read section 14.3 and case 14.2.
Although government can earn revenue through various means, such as
publicly owned companies, most revenues are collected through taxation.
Section 14.3 discusses taxation. The first sub-section, on types of taxes, is
very short, and requires some elaboration. You should read through the
other sub-sections carefully and make sure you understand the reasoning
and the graphical representations. An activity on taxation is included in
connection with Maths box 14.1.
Taxes can be classified into two broad types direct and indirect taxes.
Whether a tax is a direct or an indirect tax depends on whether people or
transactions are taxed. The most important direct tax is income tax. Both
individuals and companies pay taxes on their incomes. Personal income
tax depends not only on income but also on the size of the household, for
example. Corporation tax is levied on firms profits and can depend on
the type of company it is. On the other hand, indirect taxes are levied on
a transaction and are paid by an individual due to that individual being
involved in the transaction (L&C, UK edition pp.33740; international
edition pp.25861). The most important indirect tax is sales tax or VAT
(value added tax). VAT is an indirect tax because it depends on the value
of what is made or sold, not on the income or wealth of the person making
or selling it. In the UK, VAT is 20 per cent.
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154
Local government
BVFD: read section 14.5.
Local governments fulfil a different but complementary function to state
and federal governments, addressing local concerns. This section focuses
on the Tiebout model of local government the model is introduced and
its weaknesses are highlighted. The Tiebout model emphasises diversity
and the key mechanism for how preferences are revealed is the invisible
foot, which allocates resources efficiently via competition between local
governments. An alternative model is briefly mentioned at the end of
the section in this model, the size of local governments should be large
enough to include most of the people who use the public services provided
by that jurisdiction, thus internalising any externalities that arise from the
provision of public goods such as transport facilities and parks.
Impact of globalisation
BVFD: read section 14.6.
In this time of globalisation, governments are less free to determine
policies independently and must take into consideration what is happening
in the world more broadly. This means that cross-border cooperation
is of increasing importance. Issues such as climate change affect the
whole planet and are best tackled collectively. The Kyoto protocol is a
good example of a widely ratified agreement with binding implications
for individual countries. Even if countries do not enter into binding
agreements, the actions of other countries can have huge effects on the
domestic economy. Unfortunately, such spillovers can also give rise to
free-rider problems, reducing the incentive to sign such protocols; nonsignatories benefit from the reduced pollution of participating nations but
are free themselves to go for growth unrestrained by commitments to
reduce pollution.
Political economy
BVFD: read section 14.7 and complete activity 14.1.
In the early days of economics as a discipline, it was known as political
economy. Nowadays, the simple term economics is much more widely
used and the meaning of political economy has become much more
specific, referring to the analysis of the interdependence between
economic and political institutions. This section describes the political
economy within which governments set policy, introducing median voter
analysis, itself part of a sub-branch of political economy known as public
choice theory, and giving a taste for the way coalitions of voters (or voters
representatives) by trading votes (log rolling) can produce different
outcomes from independent voting.
BVFD: read the summary and work through the review questions.
Overview
The government plays an important role in basically all economies.
Government revenues mainly come from direct and indirect taxes,
and government spending comprises government purchases of goods
155
and services and transfer payments. The government can also play an
important role in redistributing incomes, especially by using a progressive
tax system. Externalities provide a further justification for government
intervention. These can be dealt with through the allocation of property
rights, the levying of taxes and/or subsidies which cause the private sector
to internalise the externality, or the imposition of standards/regulation.
Public goods are non-rival and non-excludable, and as such will tend
to be underprovided in private markets due to the free-rider problem.
Governments can provide public goods though the socially optimal
level can be difficult to determine in practice. Except for taxes to offset
externalities, taxes are distortionary because they make the sale price
differ from the purchase price, preventing the price system from equating
marginal costs and marginal benefits. Rising taxes initially increase tax
revenues, but at very high tax rates, they eventually lead to such large
falls in the equilibrium quantity of the taxed commodity or activity that
revenue falls. The economic sovereignty of nation states is reduced by
cross-border mobility of goods, capital, workers and consumers. Political
economy examines political equilibrium and incentives to adopt particular
policies. When all those voting have single peaked preferences, majority
voting achieves what the median voter wants.
157
Notes
158
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
describe the nature of macroeconomics as the study of the whole
economy
discuss internally consistent national accounts; why measuring GDP by
income, by expenditure or by output produces the same result
explain the circular flow between households and firms
recognise and understand the identity Y C + I + G + NX
explain why leakages always equal injections
identify nominal versus real measures of national income and output
describe the shortcomings of GDP as a measure of economic activity
and wellbeing
analyse more comprehensive measures of national income and output.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 15.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapter 13; UK edition,
Chapter 15.
Witztum (AV), Chapter 8.
of the system. These will be introduced in the textbook chapter and the
exercises and revision questions in this block are designed to help you work
through the key points and gain a better understanding. This will provide a
foundation for more in-depth analysis in the following blocks.
Macroeconomic analysis
BVFD: read the introduction to Chapter 15 and sections 15.1.
The introduction to Chapter 15 explains the difference between
microeconomics and macroeconomics in terms of how economic analysis is
simplified so that it is manageable microeconomics focuses on particular
markets, while macroeconomics stresses broad aggregates. This introduction
is helpful but very brief. For a deeper perspective on why macroeconomic
analysis exists, interested students should read AW Chapter 8.
The eight definitions to the left of section 15.1 are important, basic
concepts that you need to know make sure you are familiar with them
before continuing.
BVFD: read section 15.2.
Activity SG13.1
Do you know the long-term trend of growth, unemployment and inflation for your
own country? If you live outside the UK/USA/EU/China it would be useful to attempt
to replicate Table 15.1 for your own country. This will help to provide you with some
empirical context for your study of macroeconomics and also show you how your own
country relates to the places that the textbook has selected. You can use the following
websites to do some research:
stats.oecd.org
data.worldbank.org
www.imf.org/external/datamapper
www.worldeconomics.com
160
Measuring GDP
This section also describes the three equivalent ways of measuring the
total economic activity in the economy, namely the:
value of all goods and services produced
total value of earnings arising from the factor services supplied
total value of spending on final goods and services.
Activity SG13.2
Which of these three do you think is easiest to measure? What kind of data would you
use if you were to try to measure economic activity in these three ways?
The table below shows a breakdown of UK GDP in 2012, according to the
methods of measurement. Aside from a small statistical discrepancy, all
three methods lead to the same result.
Expenditure method
Household Consumption
Income method
1070871
Output method*
Employees Earnings
866989
11294
Investment
235342
Corporate Profit
313008
Production
245235
Government spending
344102
Other income
219990
Construction
101644
Exports
506470
less imports
533066
Statistical Discrepancy
GDP
10329
1613391
1399988
Services
1255218
210200
3203
1613391
Statistical Discrepancy
GDP
1613391
(2) Seller
(3) Buyer
Wood
Timber
producer
Stamp
manufacturer
100
Wood
Timber
producer
Paper
Manufacturer
800
Stamps
Stamp
manufacturer
Paper
manufacturer
300
Special paper
with stamped
design
Paper
manufacturer
Households
1,200
(6) Spending
on Final Goods
(7) Household
Earnings
Total
Transactions
GDP
161
Activity SG13.4
Short answer questions
1. Which components of GDP would each of the following transactions affect:
a. Your family buys a new TV.
b. All motorways are repaved.
c. You buy a bottle of Italian wine.
d. Porsche opens a new factory in England.
2. Why, in the absence of government and foreign sectors, are saving and investment
always equal? How does this change when the government and foreign sectors are
introduced?
3. The level of wealth can be measured by looking either at the gross national product
or at the GDP. Suppose that the government wants to maximise total income of
British citizens: which of the two concepts should it look at? Would you change
your answer if the aim is that of maximising the total amount of economic activity
occurring in the UK?
4. Leakages and injections complete the following table.
Item
Leakage or Injection?
Savings
Amount (m)
30
80
Taxes
40
Government Spending
20
Imports
25
Exports
What is the formula that summarises this relationship?
BVFD: read Maths 15.1.
The most important formula you will need to know in macroeconomics is
Y C + I + G + NX
It is important to realise that this is an identity. It is true by definition. In
later blocks we move away from pure definition and examine in some detail
economic theories about how each of the components of national income
are determined. To understand why this must always be true, suppose that
not all of the output the economy produced was actually sold in the period
under consideration. Does this mean output is larger than expenditure? No,
the unsold output is inventory accumulation by firms (it is as if firms sold
these goods to themselves) and this is included as part of investment. If in
subsequent years firms run down their inventories, net investment falls. The
final equation in Maths 15.1 (see also Activity SG13.4 question 4 above) is
equivalent to the formula above and is also very important. This is
(S I) + (NT G) NX.
Note that you will sometimes see this written as (S I) + (T G) NX
where the whole equation is in market prices rather than basic prices
and T is direct taxes minus welfare transfers. The general significance
of the equation is the same as the version in the text. To explain the
significance of this equation slightly differently from the text, suppose
that the economy is running an external deficit (NX is negative, imports
are greater than exports). This must have its counterpart either as a
private sector deficit or as a public sector deficit (or both). If, in any sector,
162
spending exceeds receipts there must be borrowing to pay for the excess
spending. Suppose S = I in the private sector then, if the government is
running a deficit (G > T), the government is borrowing from abroad and
there is a deficit with the rest of the world (imports greater than exports).
On the other hand if the government account is in balance (spending =
tax receipts) then a trade deficit (exports insufficient to pay for imports)
requires borrowing in the private sector (I > S).
Y C + I + G + NX represents GDP at market prices, which equals
consumption plus investment plus government spending plus net exports.
We can extend the formula so it represents GDP at basic prices by
subtracting indirect taxes. It would then be: Y C + I + G + NX Te
Maths box 15.1 depicts an extended representation of the circular flow,
including the government sector as well as households and firms. The
overseas sector is implied by arrows pointing outwards for imports and
inwards for exports. Similarly, the banking sector is implied with arrows
pointing outwards for savings and inwards for investment. An alternative
representation that includes all five sectors explicitly is provided below. The
five-sector model is the most complete version of the circular flow of income
model and, as such, you should be familiar with it. It will also help you in
fitting together the material in the remaining macroeconomics blocks.
Activity SG13.5
Access the following website: www.dineshbakshi.com/ap-economics/apmacroeconomics/175-revision-notes/1965-circular-flow-of-income. Re-draw the five
sector model (the second image on the web page) yourself in the box provided, making
sure you understand the meaning behind each of the flows.
163
Country A
Country B
1960
2010
20
2000
100
Population (bn)
60
5000
100
Population (bn)
Overview
This block started by describing the scope of macroeconomics and
macroeconomics as a study of the economy as a whole. The circular
flow was also introduced, and the block extended the discussion in the
textbook to introduce the five sector model, including households, firms,
the government, the financial sector and the overseas sector. Leakages
from the circular flow are always equal to injections, by definition. The
net output of all factors of production is called GDP and this can be
measured in three different but equivalent ways: income, production and
expenditure. For the production method, including only the value added
at each stage is important to avoid double counting. GDP can be measured
at market prices or at basic prices (exclusive of indirect taxation).
Furthermore, there is an important distinction between nominal GDP
(measured at current prices) and real GDP (measured at constant prices).
GDP, and in particular per capita GDP, is a useful indicator of a countrys
economic situation, however, it does have limitations in terms of accuracy
and comprehensiveness.
164
165
2010
2011
GDP deflator
90
120
125
125
Pakistan
2%
USA
0%
2%
4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
a. What are the key features of the trend path for each country?
b. Why is it important to compare per capita growth rates when
countries have different rates of population growth? How might
this apply to the case of Pakistan and the USA?
c. Although Pakistan shows a faster growth rate for many of the
years in the graph above, the level of per capita GDP is much
lower, as can be seen below. Briefly discuss how the magnitude of
each component of GDP is likely to differ for countries at different
stages of development.
2. This graph shows per capital GDP in constant 2005 international $.
USA
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Pakistan
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
167
Notes
168
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
contrast actual output and potential output
show how aggregate demand determines short-run equilibrium output
explain inflationary and deflationary gaps
define the marginal propensity to consume c and the marginal
propensity to import z
analyse consumption demand, investment demand, foreign trade and
equilibrium output
calculate the multiplier and the balanced budget multiplier
169
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapters 16 and 17.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapters 14 and 15;
UK edition, Chapters 16 and 17.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 10.
170
Activity SG14.1
Draw the consumption function in the box below. What does the intercept mean? What
does the slope indicate?
Consumption function
MPC + MPS 1
interpretation:
Now draw the aggregate demand schedule for a closed economy with no government
(Figure 16.5). If you were to include a line for investment, how would this look? Why?
Aggregate demand schedule
Equilibrium output
BVFD: read section 16.3 and complete activity 16.1.
The following fact (from p.372) is important to understand: In short-run
equilibrium, actual output equals the output demanded by households as
consumption and by firms as investment. Thus in short-run equilibrium,
actual output and actual income are equal to aggregate demand (desired
spending). In a graph of desired spending against output and income,
drawing a 45-degree line from the intersection of the x and y-axis shows
all of the points where desired spending and output (and income) are
equal. Where the aggregate demand function crosses this line, we can find
the short-run equilibrium point.
171
BVFD: read case 16.2 and case 16.3 how did the financial crash affect
the economy in the country where you live? Also read section 16.4.
Planned investment equals planned savings only in equilibrium. Draw the
savings and investment functions in the left-hand box below and indicate
the equilibrium output level. What is the mechanism that brings the level
of output back to equilibrium, such that planned investment and planned
savings are equal?
172
Activity SG14.2
Using the following savings and investment functions, calculate the equilibrium level of
output Y and the level of planned saving and planned investment. Graph these in the
second box below.
S = 5 + 0.3Y
I = 55
Savings and Investment functions
(general)
The multiplier
BVFD: read sections 16.5 and 16.6 and concept 16.2.
These sections introduce the concept of the multiplier. A change in
autonomous spending will result in an even greater change in equilibrium
output. The multiplier shows by how much greater the change in
equilibrium output will be, relative to the initial change in autonomous
spending. At this stage, the multiplier (which equals 1/[1 c] or
equivalently, 1/s) only depends on the marginal propensity to save. In
later chapters when we add in the government and overseas sector, the
multiplier will also depend on taxation and imports, since these are also
leakages from consumption, just like savings.
Coming back again to Maths box 16.1 equilibrium demand is
autonomous demand multiplied by the multiplier. The following question
should now be very straightforward:
173
Activity SG14.3
Given, C = 10 + 0.5Y, calculate the equilibrium output when I = 20.
Now check that Y = AD = C + I in equilibrium.
I = 300
G = 200
t = 0.3
The budget
BVFD: read section 17.3 and 17.4 as well as case 1.2.
Activity SG14.6
Multiple choice questions
1. The structural budget shows what the budget would be if is at .
a. actual spending; planned spending
b. actual tax revenue; forecast tax revenue
c. forecast consumers expenditure; actual consumers expenditure
d. output; potential output.
2. The inflation-adjusted budget:
a. uses real interest rates to calculate government spending
b. uses real GDP to calculate the deficit-to-GDP ratio
c. uses the tax rate minus the inflation rate to calculate tax revenues
d. shows what the budget will be if output is at potential output.
BVFD: read section 17.5.
175
Activity SG14.7
Which of these are automatic stabilisers and which are discretionary fiscal policies?
a. unemployment benefits
b. a high savings rate
c. increasing the income tax rate
d. decreasing the vat rate
e. decreasing government spending
f. education opportunity grants for low-income families.
BVFD: read concept 17.1.
In a long response question, you may be asked to discuss government
policy responses to a fall in output and their limitations. It is therefore
important to be well acquainted with these points.
BVFD: read section 17.6 and complete activity 17.1.
Activity SG14.8
Complete the following table
Three ways of reducing debt as a percentage of nominal GDP
Grow Your Way Out
Create Inflation
Default
Explanation:
Explanation:
Explanation:
Historical example:
Historical example:
Historical example:
Recommended approach?
Recommended approach?
Recommended approach?
176
Activity SG14.9:
Using the following parameters:
C = 100 + 0.4Y
I = 300
G = 200
t = 0.2
X = 300
z = 0.4
177
Overview
This block examines the components of aggregate demand, as well as how
aggregate demand determines output, based on the multiplier effect.
Aggregate demand is defined in this block as planned or desired spending
and short-run equilibrium is defined as the point where aggregate
demand is equal to actual output. In equilibrium, output and aggregate
demand are equal, hence Y = AD = C + I + G + NX. Chapter 16 of the
textbook examines consumption and investment. Consumption consists of
autonomous consumption (at zero income) plus the proportion of income
that is spent rather than saved. This proportion is represented by the
marginal propensity to consume (MPC). Investment is treated as constant.
When prices and wages are fixed, the goods market is in equilibrium when
planned spending equals actual spending and actual output (not potential
output). In equilibrium, planned saving equals planned investment. When
the goods market is not in equilibrium, companies inventory levels will
change to restore equilibrium either through unplanned disinvestment
(reductions in inventories) or unplanned investments (increases in
inventories). Changes in inventory send a signal to firms to increase or
decrease future output levels. Such changes in planned investment lead to
greater changes in equilibrium output, due to the multiplier effect. In its
simplest form, the multiplier is equal to 1/(1 MPC).
Chapter 17 of the textbook examines the government spending and net
exports components of aggregate demand/output. The government levies
taxes and buys goods and services. Taxes reduce private disposable income
and hence consumption. Government spending raises aggregate demand
and equilibrium output. An equal increase in government spending and
taxation leads to an increase in aggregate demand and output, which is
known as the balanced budget multiplier. Government decisions regarding
spending and taxation are known as fiscal policy. Fiscal policy can either
be expansionary or contractionary, in practice however, fiscal policy
cannot completely stabilise output. The budget deficit is a poor indicator
of the governments fiscal stance, because it is not only influenced by
discretionary policy decisions, but also by economic conditions. Automatic
stabilisers such as unemployment benefits act to reduce fluctuations in
GDP. Budget deficits add to the national debt.
The final element of the equation Y = C + I + G + NX is net exports.
Exports raise aggregate demand and can be viewed as autonomous.
Imports are a leakage and are assumed to rise with domestic income. Both
taxes and imports reduce the effect of the multiplier. In the full model, the
multiplier is equal to 1/[t + s(1 t) + z]. In equilibrium, desired leakages
(S + NT + Z) must equal desired injections (G + I + X).
178
I = 200
G = 150
t = 0.2
X = 100
z = 0.2
179
Notes
180
Block 15: Money and banking; interest rates and monetary transmission
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
explain the medium of exchange and other functions of money
explain how banks create money
differentiate between liquidity crisis and solvency crisis
define narrow and broad money
explain the money multiplier and the bank deposit multiplier
identify motives for holding money
discuss how money demand depends on output, prices and interest
rates
describe the central banks role in influencing the money supply and in
financial regulation
describe money market equilibrium
discuss intermediate targets and the transmission mechanism of
monetary policy
describe how a central bank sets interest rates and how interest rates
affect consumption and investment demand.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapters 18 and 19.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapters 16 and 17;
UK edition, Chapters 18 and 19.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 11.
181
References cited
Tee, O.C. An exchange-rate-centred monetary policy system: Singapores
experience, In Mohanty, M. S., et al. Market volatility and foreign exchange
intervention in EMEs: what has changed?. (Bank for International
Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, 2013). Available at:
www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap73w.pdf.
Block 15: Money and banking; interest rates and monetary transmission
reserves and reserve ratios. Using the notation used in BVFD, it works as
follows:
Let R be cash held in bank reserves, C be the cash held by the non-bank
public, H (for high-powered money) be the total cash in the economy, and
D be the size of bank deposits. Thus:
C+R=H
This shows that the all cash in the economy is held by either the banks or
the public. If the desired reserve ratio of the banks is cb , we can write:
R = cbD
If the public holds a fraction, cp, of its bank deposits in cash, then:
C = cpD
Substituting the second and third equations into the first gives:
cbD + cpD = H
And solving for D gives us:
H
D=
cb + cp
which shows that deposits depend on the total cash in the economy,
the banks reserve ratio and the publics ratio of cash to deposits. The
calculation of the money multiplier follows on from this in the same way
as in BVFD, such that:
H = (cb + cp)D
M = C + D = (cp + 1)D
(cp + 1)
M
=
H
(cp + cb)
The bank deposit multiplier is equal to
(cp + 1)
M
=
R
(cb)
Activity SG15.2
Based on the model above, use the following information to calculate the money
multiplier, the bank deposit multiplier, and the money supply (broad money).
Cash held by the public = 600
Banks reserves = 900
Banks hold cash reserves of 5% of deposits
The private sector holds cash in circulation of 3.333% of deposits.
Measures of money
A few points to note:
The terms money-base, narrow money and high-powered money
are interchangeable and generally refer to the sum of currency in
circulation with the public plus cash reserves held by banks.
Money supply generally refers to broad money, which is a more
inclusive measure of money and includes deposits in banks and
building societies.
The exact definitions (i.e. what is included) in various measures of
money differ for different countries, and have also changed over time.
183
Financial crises
BVFD: read section 18.6 and case 18.1.
If you are interested in learning more about the causes of the financial
crisis, there is a great deal of information online, including several
documentaries which have been made about it, such as Inside Job
(2010). You may also want to research the changes to regulation that have
been implemented and are still being implemented in many economies
worldwide as a result of the crisis.
BVFD: read the summary and work through the revision questions.
184
Block 15: Money and banking; interest rates and monetary transmission
r2
Md (Y2)
Md (Y1)
The money supply is shown by the vertical line MS, this is set at the level
that is chosen by the central bank. This shifts to the left or right if the
central bank lowers or raises the money supply. (A change in the price
level would also shift this curve, but for now we are assuming a fixed price
level. This assumption will be lifted in Block 17). Money demand is shown
by the downward sloping line Md. This depends on the level of real income
in the economy (GDP). A rise in real income shifts the Md curve upwards.
Money market equilibrium occurs at the intersection of the demand and
supply curves. This is shown by point A (where the interest rate is r1 and
income is Y1) and alternatively at point B (where the interest rate is r2 and
income is Y2).
186
Block 15: Money and banking; interest rates and monetary transmission
Investment
Wealth
Consumer
Credit
Permanent
Income
Fixed Capital
Inventories
Higher real
money supply
increases
wealth directly
The credit
available to
consumers
increases
Lower interest
rates increase
wealth
indirectly
Low interest
rates make
borrowing for
consumption
more
affordable
Consumption
demand
reflects longrun disposable
income. Lower
interest rates
increase
consumption
by increasing
the present
value of
expected
future labour
income
Lower
interest rates
mean more
investment
opportunities
exceed their
opportunity
cost (with a
more powerful
impact on
long-term
investments)
Lower
interest rates
reduce the
opportunity
cost of holding
inventories
Government
Spending
Net Exports
(Fiscal policy
is generally
determined
independently
of monetary
policy)
(The effect of
interest rates
on net exports
is covered in
later parts of
the textbook)
Overview
Chapter 18 of the textbook provides an introduction to the economic
analysis of the money market. The four main functions of money are as
a medium of exchange, a store of value, a unit of account and a standard
of deferred payment. Narrow money, also known as high-powered money
or the money base, consists of currency in circulation plus banks cash
reserves. Broad money (M4), the money supply, includes deposits at banks
187
and building societies. This chapter examines how banks operate, as this
helps generate the money supply. Money supply is greater than the money
base by a factor known as the money multiplier, which depends on banks
reserve ratios and the publics holdings of cash relative to deposits.
Moving on to the demand for money, the textbook discusses how people
have various motives for holding money, including the transactions motive,
the precautionary motive and the asset motive. The cost of holding money
is the interest foregone through not holding assets as bonds. The quantity
of real money demanded rises as the interest rate falls, and is higher at
each interest rate when real income is higher.
Banks play an important role in the economy, but this is not without risk.
Regarding financial crises arising in the banking sector, it is important to
distinguish between liquidity crises and solvency crises. One approach to
dealing with the recent financial crisis (quantitative easing) is explored in
Chapter 19 of the textbook.
Chapter 19 also discusses the Bank of England and the two key
responsibilities of central banks, namely monetary control and financial
stability. It also brings together demand and supply to discuss equilibrium
in money markets. Equilibrium is achieved through changes in the
interest rate, which affects the demand and supply of bonds and thus
indirectly, demand for money. Money supply is controlled by the central
bank, although nowadays, central banks focus on the interest rate rather
than setting a specific money supply target. The central banks decisions
regarding interest rates (or historically, money supply) is known as
monetary policy. Interest rates are a common instrument of monetary
policy, and a common target is price stability (low inflation rates).
Changes in interest rates affect the real economy through their impact
on consumption and investment. Consumption, because higher interest
rates reduce household wealth, make borrowing dearer and reduce the
present value of future labour income, leading to a fall in consumption.
Investment, because higher interest rates mean fewer investment projects
exceed their opportunity cost and the opportunity cost of holding
inventories increases, leading to a fall in investment.
Block 15: Money and banking; interest rates and monetary transmission
189
Notes
190
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
describe different forms of monetary policy
derive the IS curve and the LM curve
find equilibrium in both the output and money markets
link shifts in the curves to fiscal and monetary policy respectively
discuss the impact of fiscal policy, with different funding mechanisms
discuss the impact of monetary policy
describe the liquidity trap
use graphs to describe the effect on output and interest rate of the mix
of monetary and fiscal policy
realise how expected future taxes affect current demand.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 20.
191
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapters 17 and 18; UK
edition, Chapters 19, 20 and 25.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 12.
Monetary policy
BVFD: read section 20.1.
In the past, central banks used monetary targeting now they tend to use
inflation targeting. This chapter is based on the assumption that central
banks use monetary targeting, since it makes the concepts in this chapter
easier to understand. However, its important to keep in the back of your
mind that inflation targeting is the most common current practice. The
following chapters will explore inflation targeting more deeply.
I
150 200
= 50
Figure 16.1: Investment schedule.
AD (r = 10%)
350
300
45
1500 1750
r
A
10%
8%
IS
1500 1750
Figure
Deriving
the
curve.
A: at 16.2:
an interest
rate
ofIS10%
the goods market is in equilibrium at 1500
B: atAanshows
interest
of 8% theingoods
market
is in equilibrium
1750
Point
anrate
equilibrium
the goods
market
where theatinterest
The
IS
curve
gives
you
all
the
combinations
of
interest
rate
and
income
rate is 10% and output is 1,500. Point B shows an equilibrium where the
where rate
the goods
is in equilibrium
interest
is 8% market
and output
is 1,750.
Mapping points A and B onto a graph of interest rates against output gives
us the IS curve. The IS curve shows all the combinations of interest rate
and income where the goods market is in equilibrium.
Activity SG16.1
Given the following information, provide a graphical derivation of the IS curve: The
multiplier is equal to three. When interest rates are equal to 5%, autonomous demand is
200. When the interest rate rises to 8%, investment falls from 100 to 80.
To derive the LM curve, we must start with the money market. This is
depicted below in the left-hand graph.
MS
r
D
15%
10%
15%
D
C
10%
Md (Y2)
LM
M (Y1)
d
Y1
Y2
The money supply is fixed at a certain level by the central bank (remember
in this block we are still assuming the central bank is using a money
supply target). In this depiction of the money market, money demand
depends endogenously on the interest rate r and exogenously on the
level of income Y and is downward sloping. At point C, the market
is in equilibrium. The mechanism that provides the LM curve can be
summarised as follows: if there is an increase in income, this will lead
to an increase in the demand for money at any interest rate (due to the
increase in transactions). This means there will be excess demand for
money at the initial interest rate some people want to sell their bonds
and convert them into cash. These people will need to find a lender, so the
price of bonds would have to fall and the interest rate the return to the
lender would have to increase. In this way, competitive market forces
will restore equilibrium in the money market.
In short: Y Md Pb r, where Y is income, Md is money demand,
Pb is the price of bonds and r is the interest rate.
At point D, interest rates have risen to such a level that equilibrium in the
money market has been restored. Mapping points C and D onto a graph
of interest rate against output gives us the upward sloping LM curve. The
LM curve shows all the combinations of interest rate and output where the
money market is in equilibrium.
Activity SG16.2
Given the following information, provide a graphical derivation of the LM curve. There is
a fixed supply of money. When output is at 600, the money market is in equilibrium when
interest rates are equal to 5%, when output rises to 800, the interest rate rises to 8% to
restore equilibrium in the money market.
Putting the IS curve and the LM curve together gives us the complete
model. This is a general equilibrium model which shows the interactions
between two variables (interest rates and output) which are dependent on
each other but which are determined in different markets.
The IS curve shows combinations of interest rate and output where the
goods market is in equilibrium. These variables are connected in the goods
market because interest rates affect investment (and also consumption),
which are components of aggregate output.
r
LM
X
r*
IS
Y*
The LM curve shows combinations of interest rate and output where the
money market is in equilibrium. These variables are connected in the
money market because the demand for money depends on the income
level and interest rates. In short, the rate of interest is a linking variable
which transmits changes in the money market to the goods market and
194
LM-curve:
Lower interest rates increase consumption The quantity of money demanded rises
demand (Why?)
with the level of output (Why?)
the monetary authorities change the interest rate, equilibrium output will
change, other things equal.
BVFD: read section 20.3 and concept 20.2.
Activity SG16.4
Using the IS-LM framework, draw a fiscal expansion and a monetary expansion in the
boxes below. What are the effects on output and interest rates?
Fiscal expansion
Monetary expansion
Crowding out
An increase in government spending, G, leads to an increase in output and
an increase in interest rates. However, this increase in interest rates will
lead to a fall in private spending a fall in investment and consumption.
This means that the overall increase in output is less than it otherwise
would have been. To a certain extent, the increase in government
spending has merely replaced private spending that would otherwise have
taken place. Another way of thinking about this is that an increase in G,
unmatched by an increase in taxation reduces desired national savings.
At unchanged interest rates there will be an excess of desired investment
over desired savings so the interest rate increases to eliminate this excess.
As the text explains, investment does not fall by the same amount that G
has increased unless the LM curve is vertical. Look at the text to determine
under what conditions there would be no crowding out at all.
Not all economists are convinced by the notion that increases in
government spending crowd out private investment. One counter
argument is that when confidence is very low, say in a deep recession,
government spending may actually crowd in private spending by boosting
confidence in the future performance of the economy.
BVFD: read section 20.4.
196
Activity SG16.5
The figure below summarises this section, showing how changes in money demand (other
than those caused by changes in interest rates and output) cause the LM curve to shift.
Complete the empty boxes in the second row.
Increase in
banking
competition
Banks pay
higher
interest on
deposits
Banks want
to increase
their profit
margins
Smaller
differential
interest paid
on deposits
and interest
paid on
bonds
Increased
demand for
money
(deposits) at
a given
market
interest rate
r
LM
curve
shifts
left
LM
curve
shifts
right
Figure 16.5
Unpredictable shocks to money demand, and hence the position of the LM
curve, is one reason why money supply targets were eventually abandoned
in favour of interest rate targets.
BVFD: read Maths 20.1.
This maths box provides a neat way of summarising the various factors
at work in these models. Work through the algebra yourself to make sure
you understand it. You would then find it useful to work through the
additional material below.
Derivation of IS-LM
We now provide a mathematical treatment of the derivation of IS-LM. It is
basically an elaboration of Maths 20.1 with the inclusion of government. This
latter extension enables the equations to incorporate the effects of monetary
and fiscal policy.
We begin with the equilibrium condition, discussed in Chapters 16 and 17,
that output equals desired spending in the goods market.
Y=C+I+G
Next, for C we substitute the linear consumption function C = AC + c(Y T).
In this equation AC represents autonomous consumption, c is the marginal
propensity to consume out of disposable income which is gross income Y
minus net taxes T. To keep the mathematics relatively simple we make T
autonomous rather than a linear function of Y as in earlier chapters.
Note that we do not make consumption depend on interest rates in this
section, again simply to avoid the mathematics becoming too turgid. Turning
to investment we allow this to have an autonomous component AI as well
as to depend negatively on the rate of interest, r, as explained in Chapter
19 (see, for example Figure 19.5). Thus, we write investment as I = AI dr
Substituting into the equilibrium condition we have:
197
AC + AI cT + G
1 c
and b =
d
1 c
Y=
AC + AI cT + G
(1 c) +
df
h
M
(1 c)
h
d
+f
From these equations we can derive the fiscal and monetary policy multipliers;
the change in Y for a given (relatively small) change in G, T or M.
Y
G
Y
T
Y
M
1
(1 c) + df
h
c
(1 c) + df
h
1
(1 c) h + f
d
Activity SG16.6
1. a. Find the interest rate and level of output at which both goods and money markets
are in equilibrium, given the following equations:
Y = 80 4r
(IS curve)
M = 360
(money supply)
M = 10Y 4r
(money demand)
b. How would this change if there is expansionary fiscal policy and autonomous
demand in the IS schedule increases to 102?
2. Find the interest rate and level of output at which both goods and money markets are
in equilibrium, given the following information:
C = 100 + 0.7(Y T)
I = 100 0.2r
G = 150
T = 50
M=310
M = 0.3Y 0.2r.
199
r
M1s
M2s
When the central bank increases the money supply in the range 0A,
interest rates fall, but beyond A, further increases in the money supply,
beyond MS2 lead to no further reductions in interest rates; individuals will
be prepared to hold the extra money without further reductions in the
interest rate. Now let us ask what happens to the LM curve when money
demand curves are horizontal at zero interest rates.
r
M D (Y3)
M 52
LM(M 52)
M (Y2)
D
M D(Y1)
Y1
Y2
Y3
LM(M 51)
LM(M 53)
LM(M 52)
A
B
Y
Y
*
201
Activity SG16.7
Describe the policy mix you would adopt in the following situations, assuming you are in
a position of power over both fiscal and monetary policy, and provide an explanation of
the reasoning behind your decision:
a. A very deep recession.
b. There is a need to build a solid foundation for long-term growth, but there is currently
a temporary bubble in the economy.
c. The country is heavily engaged in a war which is being fought outside of the country.
This section also briefly makes the point that expansionary fiscal policy
can be financed in different ways. The effects of the policy on interest rates
and output may differ depending on how it is financed. The three main
alternatives for financing an expansionary fiscal policy are below.
a. An expansionary fiscal policy financed via an increase in taxes. This
will not cause an increase in the money supply so fiscal policy and
monetary policy will be independent. It does cause a decrease in
consumption but not by as much as the tax increase since people are
likely to reduce savings as well as consumption. Interest rates will
increase and output will increase, though probably less than it will
in (b).
b. An expansionary fiscal policy financed via borrowing (selling bonds to
the public). This doesnt affect money supply as the money the public
uses to buy bonds is re-injected into the economy. Fiscal and monetary
policy will be independent in this case. Crowding out will occur due
to the increase in interest rates. Output will most likely increase more
than in (a), depending on how much crowding out of investment and
consumption occurs.
c. An expansionary fiscal policy financed via printing money (selling
bonds to the central bank). This will lead to an increase in the money
supply and can be highly inflationary if the government has large debts
more on this later. Output will rise and there will be no crowding
out. The effect on the interest rate is unclear.
Activity SG16.8
Use IS-LM curves to represent these three options graphically (note that at this stage we
still make the assumption that prices are constant).
BVFD: read section 20.6.
What are the reasons why Ricardian equivalence is too strong in practice? What evidence
exists to support this?
BVFD: read section 20.7, the summary and work through the review
questions.
202
Overview
This block introduces the IS-LM model and provides a derivation of each
curve. Fiscal policy shifts the IS curve while monetary policy shifts the LM
curve. An expansionary fiscal policy leads to a higher interest rate and
higher output, with government spending a large part of total spending.
An expansionary monetary policy leads to lower interest rates and higher
output, with private consumption spending and investment making up
a large part of total spending. These two policies can be used to support
each other or balance each other out. Often, fiscal policy will be heavily
influenced by political concerns, while in many countries the central bank
makes decisions on monetary policy independent from political influences.
This model provides a simple way of depicting the effects of each policy, as
well as policy mixes.
204
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
describe inflation targets for monetary policy
explain and graph the ii schedule
describe how inflation affects aggregate demand
define aggregate demand and graph the AD schedule
define aggregate supply in the classical model
analyse the equilibrium inflation rate
describe complete crowding out in the classical model
recognise why wage adjustment may be slow
analyse short-run aggregate supply
discuss the effects of short-run and permanent demand and supply
shocks
describe how monetary policy reacts to demand and supply shocks
recognise flexible inflation targets
explain the Taylor rule.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 21.
205
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapters 19 and 20; UK
edition, Chapters 21 and 22.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 13.
Aggregate demand
BVFD: read section 21.1.
In the early blocks on macroeconomics, there was an underlying
assumption that the price level is fixed, and aggregate demand was simply
defined as planned or desired spending (see textbook Chapter 16). From
this block (covering Chapter 21) onwards, we leave this assumption
behind, and can now represent aggregate demand at various price levels.
This is summarised by the (dynamic) AD curve, which shows the
relationship between output and inflation.
The price level or its rate of change?
Students looking at other textbooks (e.g. Lipsey and Chrystal (UK edition Chapter 21;
international edition, Chapter 19), Mankiw, Blanchard) may find that the model of
aggregate supply and aggregate demand is first introduced with the price level rather
than inflation on the vertical axis. Our textbook bypasses this model and goes to a
somewhat more advanced model, which can be thought of as a dynamic model of
aggregate supply and demand; dynamic in the sense that the rate of change of prices
rather than their level is what influences aggregate demand and supply in the economy.
While this is more advanced and more modern, in the sense of explicitly incorporating
inflation targeting as currently widely practised by central banks, it does require a
somewhat more complex set of ideas.
Although our textbook relates aggregate supply and demand to inflation it may be worth
understanding the rudiments of the alternative approach using the price level. There are
several different explanations to be found in the literature on why aggregate demand
(AD) is inversely related to the price level (i.e. the AD curve slopes downwards), and
aggregate supply (AS) positively related (AS upward sloping).
On the demand side, a simple version has the demand for real money balances
M
depending positively on income: P = kY , where M is the nominal money supply and k is
a constant. Therefore, with a given nominal money supply, we have an inverse relation
between P and Y. Lipsey and Chrystal also argue that the price level has wealth effects
on consumption and directly affects the competitiveness of exports. This is described in
further detail using the IS-LM model in the appendix to this block.
206
On the supply side, one can think of the AS curve being upward sloping due to increasing
marginal costs of production; for perfectly competitive firms an exogenous increase in
prices raises output and for price-setting firms if higher output increases costs, firms
who price with a mark-up over costs will increase prices. The AD-AS model then jointly
determines output and the price level and enables analysis of the effects of monetary and
fiscal policies as well as supply shocks which exogenously increase or decrease costs to
producers.
Section 21.1 explains why the AD curve is downward sloping in a model
with inflation on the vertical axis. Interest rates and central bank inflation
targeting are the links between inflation and output. When inflation is
high, inflation-targeting central banks raise interest rates and this reduces
those components of aggregate demand, such as investment, which are
sensitive to interest rates. Consumption is also affected by interest rates
(though to a lesser extent than investment) because people often buy
durable goods (such as washing machines) on credit. It is important
to be clear that the implementation of a given monetary policy moves
the economy along a given ii schedule while a general tightening or
loosening of monetary policy shifts the whole ii schedule upwards or
downwards.
BVFD: read concept 21.1.
The approach adopted in BVFD for explaining the AD schedule is clarified
further in concept 21.1. This shows how input/output, interest rates
and inflation are all interrelated. In Figure 21.1 the ii schedule is drawn
with the real interest rate on the vertical axis, whereas the ii schedule in
concept 21.1 uses the nominal interest rate. Can you see how these two
approaches are reconciled? The answer is that the absolute value of the
slope of the ii schedule in concept 21.1 is greater than 1, implying that
the monetary authorities raise real interest rates when inflation increases;
because i=r , r> means i increases.
Activity SG15.1
Use the framework of concept 21.1 to trace out the effects of a looser monetary policy on
the AD schedule.
Aggregate supply
BVFD: read section 21.2 and case study 21.1.
We now move away from the Keynesian model, with rigid wages and
prices in which output is entirely demand determined, and include a
supply-side in the model of output determination. Aggregate supply
describes the relationship between the output that businesses willingly
produce and the rate of inflation, with other factors held constant. Initially,
the textbook introduces the vertical aggregate supply curve. This is
often known as the long-run aggregate supply curve as it is based on the
assumption that prices and wages are completely flexible. While almost all
economists would agree that prices and wages are flexible in the long-run,
the classical school assumed they were always flexible.
For example, suppose inflation increased; if nominal wage growth did not
change then real wages would fall. But in the classical model, nominal
wage growth would match the new, higher, rate of inflation so that real
wages would be unaffected and there would be no forces acting to change
aggregate output. The vertical aggregate supply curve shows that in the
207
Equilibrium inflation
BVFD: read section 21.3.
Now we can finally put together the pieces of the full model aggregate
demand and aggregate supply to show both the level of output and the
inflation rate. Where the two curves intersect, there is equilibrium in the
goods market, the money market and also the labour market. The position
of the vertical AS curve reflects potential output. The position of the AD
curve reflects the governments monetary policy and the impact of interest
rates on the goods market.
In the long run, aggregate supply is vertical at the level of potential
output determined by the economys available inputs and its technology
(broadly defined). All prices, inputs and outputs increase at the same rate
so nothing real changes. For example both money wages (nominal wages)
and prices change at the same rate so the real wage, which affects both the
supply of and demand for labour, is unchanged.
The SAS curves described in this section display how much firms are
willing to supply at each level of inflation given a certain nominal wage
growth. In Appendix B, there is a description of SAS curves for a model
with the price level on the vertical axis. Once again, this has been included
to aid your understanding and is optional and not examinable.
Figure 21.5 shows why it can be useful to understand the AD curve from
the perspective of interest rates. Then, we can see how the government
can respond actively to a shift in aggregate supply. In this case, the
government responds to an increase in aggregate supply by reducing
interest rates, as this leads to an increase in aggregate demand such that
inflation is maintained at the target rate.
Activity SG17.2
Beginning at point C in Figure 21.5, where would the economy end up if there was an
adverse supply shock shifting the AS curve from AS1 to AS0 and the central bank did not
react?
Activity SG17.3
Select the appropriate response below in regards to the following two statements:
i. Central banks can offset temporary demand shocks but in doing so they will face a
trade-off between stabilising output or inflation.
ii. Central banks can offset temporary supply shocks without facing any trade-off
between stabilising output or inflation.
208
Wage rigidity
BVFD: read section 21.4.
This section discusses wage rigidity. It summarises why prices are sticky
(especially downwards), since wages, the largest component of firms
costs, adjust slowly to changes in demand. Prices may also be sticky for
other reasons, such as the fact that it is costly for firms to set, implement
and advertise new prices this may lead to a reluctance to increase prices,
even in situations where a price increase would be expected, for example
due to a major increase in costs or demand.
In the short run, some prices cannot adjust or can only do so partially. To
derive an upward sloping short-run supply curve, this chapter assumes
a very specific type of labour market rigidity, namely that, in the shortrun, firms are stuck with a given rate of growth (note: not level) of
nominal wages inherited from previous wage negotiations. Prices change
more easily than wages. Both suppliers and demanders of labour will
have negotiated the rate of growth of money wages on the basis of their
inflation expectations (i.e. they will have implicitly been negotiating
over real wages). If the rate of change of nominal wages is fixed by wage
agreements but inflation deviates from the rate assumed by the parties
to such agreements then the real wages will differ from those implicitly
agreed by the negotiating parties.
Now suppose that for given expectations about the growth of money
wages and prices, the rate of inflation is higher than expected. Firms get
higher prices for their product and real wages are lower than expected
because prices are rising faster than was expected when nominal wage
growth was negotiated. So production becomes more profitable and firms
increase output. Similarly, if inflation is lower than expected the prices at
which firms sell their output is lower than they were counting on and real
wages are greater than expected. Output falls, unemployment increases.
After a period of time, if inflation deviates from its expectations and thus
the workers and firms are not receiving and paying the real wages they
negotiated, they will go back and renegotiate how fast nominal wages
grow and this in turn will shift the whole short run AS schedule, that
schedule having been drawn for a given rate of change of money wages.
The short-run aggregate supply curves in Figure 21.7 can be written:
Y = Y* + ( e) where is a positive constant and e is expected
inflation. As explained, each supply given is based on inherited agreements
on the growth of money wages.
Shifts in the SAS curve: Each SAS curve reflects a given rate of inherited
nominal wage growth (and more generally, given input prices). When
inherited nominal wage growth is lower, firms will not increase prices
as quickly, and the SAS curve will be lower. Changes in input prices and
changes in productivity also both lead to shifts in the SAS curve.
210
The adjustment process for a negative demand shock (described more fully
in section 21.6) is similar 0 just in the opposite direction, with the AD
curve shifting left from AD0 to AD2, moving the economy into recession at
a lower rate of inflation. At point D, there is involuntary unemployment.
This will put downward pressure on future wage negotiations, resulting in
lower wage growth and a shift in the SAS curve, eventually to point E.
AS
SAS1
Inflation
1
0
2
SAS0
SAS2
AD1
AD0
AD2
Y*
Output, income (GDP)
Figure 17.1 Demand shocks.
Overview
This chapter introduces a model of aggregate demand and aggregate
supply, showing the relationships between output and inflation. The ii
schedule is introduced first to help explain the AD curve. The ii schedule
shows, under a policy of inflation targeting, how the central bank sets high
interest rates when inflation is high and low interest rates when inflation
is low. The ii schedule shifts left (right) when monetary policy is loosened
(tightened) this means at each inflation rate, real interest rates are higher
(lower). On the assumption that the central bank is taking this approach,
the AD curve shows how higher inflation reduces aggregate demand by
inducing monetary policy to raise real interest rates.
The classical model of macroeconomics assumes full flexibility of wages
and prices and no money illusion. In the classical model, the economy is
always at full employment equilibrium. This is represented by a vertical
aggregate supply schedule at the level of potential output. Equilibrium
inflation occurs at the intersection of the aggregate demand and aggregate
supply schedules. Monetary policy is set to make the equilibrium inflation
rate coincide with the inflation target. In the classical model, fiscal
expansion cannot raise output, but will simply lead to a crowding out of an
equal amount of private spending.
In the real world, prices and wages do not adjust instantaneously. In
particular, wages are thought to be sticky downwards. This is a feature
of the Keynesian model of macroeconomics. The Keynesian model is a
good guide to short-run behaviour whilst the classical model describes
the long run. The vertical aggregate supply curve is thus called the longrun aggregate supply curve. Short-run aggregate supply curves slope
upwards. They show firms desired output given the inherited growth of
nominal wages. Output is responsive to inflation in the short-run because
nominal wages are already determined and peoples expectations regarding
inflation do not always prove correct. A re-negotiation of the rate of wage
growth causes a shift in the short-run aggregate supply curve.
Permanent supply shocks alter potential output. Regardless of the policy
adopted, their output effects cannot be escaped indefinitely. Temporary
supply shocks merely shift the short-run supply curve for a period.
These force central banks to make a decision on the trade-off between
output stability and inflation stability. Demand shocks however, could be
completely offset by monetary policy, if the effects were instant.
Flexible inflation targeting implies the central bank need not immediately
hit its inflation target, allowing some scope for temporary action to
cushion output fluctuations. A Taylor rule views interest rate decisions
as responding to both deviations of output from target and deviations of
inflation from target. Many central banks appear to follow a Taylor ruletype policy.
212
213
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214
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12/1/2013
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12/1/2003
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12/1/2002
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6/1/2000
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6/1/1998
12/1/1998
6/1/1997
6/1/1996
12/1/1996
6/1/1995
12/1/1995
-8
12/1/1997
Fed Funds
-6
LM1(P1)
Interest rate
LM0(P0)
E2
E0
E1
IS0(P0)
IS1(P1)
Y2
IS2(P2)
Y1
Y0
Real GDP
Price level
e2
e1
e0
AD
Y2
Y1
Y0
Real GDP
Figure 17.2
215
The AD curve above shows the relationship between the equilibrium level
of output and the price level. For a given nominal money supply, changing
the price level (from P0 to P1 to P2) causes both the IS and the LM curves
to shift leftward in the upper graph. When the price level is P0, the curves
IS0(P0) and LM0(P0) intersect at E0 with the equilibrium level of output
being Y0. Plotting Y0 against P0 in the lower graph gives the first point on
the AD curve: e0. An increase in the price level to P1 shifts the LM curve to
LM1(P1) and the IS curve to IS1(P1). The intersection of these curves gives
a new equilibrium at E1 where the output level is Y1. Plotting P1 against Y1
gives the point e1 in the lower graph the second point on the AD curve. A
further increase in the price level to P2 shifts the LM curve to LM2(P2) and
the IS curve to IS2(P2). This takes equilibrium to E2 at an output level of Y2.
Plotting P2 against Y2 gives the final point on the AD curve e2. Connecting
points e0, e1 and e2 yields the AD curve, showing the relationship between
output and the price level.
216
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
explain and criticise the quantity theory of money
discuss nominal and real interest rates and inflation
analyse seigniorage, the inflation tax, and why hyperinflations occur
assess when budget deficits cause money growth
explain the Philips curve
analyse inflation expectations
evaluate the costs of inflation
discuss central bank independence and inflation control
analyse how central banks set interest rates.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 22.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapters 1921; UK edition,
Chapters 2123.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 13.
217
(Ratio)
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
219
If nominal money growth leads to a fall in demand for real money, P must
rise faster than M so that real money supply (M/P) falls in line with the
fall in demand for real money.
Activity SG18.1
What does this section tell you about the velocity of money during a hyperinflation?
Assume that output is constant and the money supply is rising rapidly (for example
because a government is printing large amounts of money to cover its debts), and use the
equation of exchange to describe the change in the price level.
BVFD: read section 22.3.
If governments have been running persistent deficits and the ratio of
accumulated debt to GDP is high they will find it difficult to continue
to finance deficits by borrowing; potential lenders fear they will not be
repaid. Governments need to tighten fiscal policy in such circumstances,
but they might instead be tempted to finance ongoing deficits by printing
money (or increasing the money supply in some equivalent manner). The
real revenue they get from this is called seigniorage.
M .
M
=
P
M
M
P
However, the two terms on the right-hand side of this equation are not
independent, because an increase in the growth of the money supply will
increase inflation which, in turn, will decrease the demand for real money
balances. This is the reason for the hump shaped curve in Figure 22.3.
The relation is not a mechanical one. It depends on how quickly increases
in the money supply feed through into increases in inflation and by how
much and how quickly people adjust their real money balances when
inflation changes. This section of the chapter also explains the inflation
tax. Inflation acts as a tax, eroding the real value of money balances. The
inflation rate is analogous to a tax rate and the holding of real money
balances is analogous to the tax rate. So we can write the inflation tax as:
Inflation tax =
M
P
Note that this is not the tax revenue the government gets from increasing
the money supply. That is given in the expression for seigniorage. But
looking at the two equations it is clear that seigniorage and the inflation
M
tax are equivalent when M = i.e. when inflation is equal to nominal
money growth (when nominal money growth and real income are
constant this will be assured).
Activity SG18.2
Use your own words to explain seigniorage and the inflation tax.
2
Named after New
Zealand-born economist
A.W. Phillips, who spent
much of his academic
career at the London
School of Economics.
Apart from using
statistical methods
to investigate the
relationship between
unemployment and
inflation, the subject
of this section, Phillips
(who initially trained as
an engineer) was also
famous for building
an analogue hydraulic
computer which could
be used for modelling
the macro economy.
Several copies of this
machine still exist
introduced. Just as there was for aggregate supply, there is both a long-run
Phillips curve and a short-run Phillips curve. The short-run curve slopes
downwards, depicting a trade-off between unemployment and inflation.
This can be explained in a simple and intuitive way as follows. In the short
run, when inflation increases unemployment decreases. For example,
inflation is usually demand-pull inflation, this occurs when aggregate
demand increases. The quantity supplied by firms needs to increase to
meet the increase in aggregate demand, and to increase quantity supplied,
firms must hire more workers, hence unemployment falls. Higher prices
make firms supply more output and demand more workers. Alternatively,
when unemployment rises, inflation falls. This could be because as
unemployment rises, people can no longer afford to buy as many goods
and services. Thus firms must lower their prices to attract customers and
inflation falls.
In its original form (nave form, some would say) such a relationship could
be written as:
= 0 1u
0 > 0, 1 > 0
This trade-off at first seemed to offer a powerful lever to policy makers
seeking to an acceptable compromise in attaining two of the most
important but seemingly conflicting macroeconomic objectives (low
unemployment and low inflation). However, this trade-off was soon
revealed to be illusory over the longer term; the long-run Phillips curve is
vertical equilibrium unemployment is independent of inflation.
Demand shocks will move the economy along the short-run Phillips curve
permitting the economy to temporarily diverge from equilibrium levels.
Thus an inflation rate that is different from peoples expectations leads to
a movement along the short-run Phillips curve. The height of the short-run
Phillips curve is affected by peoples expectations about future inflation.
A change in expectations leads to a shift in the short-run Phillips curve.
Temporary supply shocks also affect the height of the short-run Phillips
curve (causing it to shift upwards or downwards), while permanent supply
shocks affect the position of the long-run curve.
BVFD: read Maths 22.1.
Inflation depends on inflation expectations and the gap between the actual
and equilibrium unemployment rates. Inflation expectations also depend
on this gap. Therefore, inflation is affected by deviations of unemployment
from the equilibrium rate through two channels directly, and also
through the impact on expectations.
Second, Equation (1) (representing the short-run Phillips curve) shows
that the gap between inflation and inflation expectations is proportionate
to the difference between actual and equilibrium unemployment.
Equation (4) shows that the gap between actual and potential output
is also proportional to the difference between actual and equilibrium
unemployment. Putting these together lets us find the short-run aggregate
supply curve (equation 5) which shows the relationship between the gap
between actual and potential output and the gap between inflation and
inflation expectations.
One of the central points in this section is the correspondence between
the Phillips curve and the aggregate supply curve (see Figure 22.6 and
associated discussion). We can see this mathematically by recalling from
the previous block that aggregate supply can be written:
Y = Y* + ( e)
221
h>0
h
b = (u u*) > 0
This version of the Phillips curve is sometimes called the expectationsaugmented Phillips curve, in comparison to the original or nave
Phillips curve shown above. Note that this equation3 is the same as the
first equation in Maths 22.1, to which we return shortly. The argument
in Maths 22.1 begins with the short-run Phillips curve and shows this
to be equivalent to the short-run supply curve. Here we have done the
reverse, starting with the short-run supply curve of the previous chapter
and showing that it is equivalent to the short-run Phillips curve. It is easy
to see from this equation that when, in the long-run, actual and expected
inflation are equal, unemployment is at its natural or equilibrium rate:
= e u = u*
Note that this argument applies to any level of actual and expected
inflation. There is no unique inflation rate corresponding to equilibrium
unemployment; equilibrium unemployment requires that expectations
about inflation are fulfilled, but this can happen at any level of inflation.
BVFD: read concept 22.2.
When reading news reports on the state of the economy, you may have
come across the term NAIRU, this is an acronym which means the nonaccelerating-inflation rate of unemployment. This is the unemployment
rate consistent with maintaining stable inflation. It is similar to the natural
rate of unemployment discussed in this current chapter.4 Understanding
the accelerationist hypothesis from this concept lets us understand
where the terminology of the NAIRU comes from. When output is at its
potential level, the unemployment rate is not zero, even though this state
is sometimes referred to as the full employment level of output. There will
be a certain level of unemployment that is not caused by a lack of demand,
but rather is caused by the movement of people between jobs (frictional
unemployment) or a mismatch in the skills that workers have and
the skills demanded by employers (structural unemployment). If
unemployment is pushed below its natural rate, or below the NAIRU,
inflation will tend to accelerate. To decrease unemployment permanently
without generating inflation, governments try to decrease the NAIRU by
increasing the efficiency of labour markets and focusing on skills, such as
through retraining programmes.
From our analysis above, and that in concept 22.2 which you have just
read, it is clear that peoples expectations about inflation are crucial. If
we rewrite the above equation with time subscripts, t, t = te b(ut u*)
and assume that people expect this periods inflation to be the same as last
222
3
Note that this equation
can also be written as
= e b(u u*) +
v where v is used to
indicate a short-run
supply shock (longrun supply shocks
change equilibrium
unemployment, u*).
Thus vertical shifts of the
short-run Phillips curve
can result from changes
in inflation expectations
and/or from temporary
supply shocks, the latter
giving rise to cost-push
inflation.
4
The natural rate of
unemployment can
be seen as a more
long-term concept,
whilst the NAIRU can
be interpreted as the
unemployment rate
consistent with steady
inflation in the near
term. In full equilibrium,
they are the same.
periods we can write: t = t1 b(ut u*) then we can see that if policy
makers keep current inflation above last periods inflation they can hold
e
unemployment below the natural rate. If instead of assuming that t = t1
we instead assume a broader version of adaptive expectations such
that te = t1, broadly similar arguments apply (but not if = 1, in which
case we revert to the nave Phillips curve). However, as concept 22.2 hints
at would people really be fooled by policy makers simply accelerating
inflation; would they not build this into their inflationary expectations?
Where this is the case, with so called rational expectations, the shortrun trade-off between unemployment below its equilibrium rate and
accelerating inflation would not exist.5
This section contains a lot of detail on how the economy functions it may
be good to read it through several times. Two important concepts from
this section are the natural rate of unemployment which is the
long-run equilibrium level of unemployment (this is not zero more on
this later); and stagflation which is the situation where inflation and
unemployment are both high, as many economies experienced during the
1970s due to high oil prices. The experience of stagflation in this period is
what initially led economists to question the validity of the Phillips curve.
The rational
expectations hypothesis
is particularly associated
with the American
economist Thomas
J. Sargent who was
awarded the Nobel Prize
in Economics in 2011
(jointly with Christopher
A. Sims).
5
Activity SG18.3
Based on Figure 22.6, use the LRAS and the long-run Phillips curve, together with the
short-run curves, to depict what will happen to output, unemployment and the price level
when there is:
a. a negative shock to aggregate demand in the context of a credible, constant inflation
target
b. an expectation that the inflation rate will rise and that the central bank will not be
able to contain this
c. the productivity of the labour force increases permanently (for example due to
changes in the countys education and training systems)
d. a temporary adverse supply shock that is not fully accommodated.
223
Activity SG18.4
You can use the following website to find inflation figures for your country and see how
these changed during the financial crisis. Was there deflation in your country between
2007 and 2009? http://databank.worldbank.org/data
Controlling inflation
BVFD: read sections 22.6 and 22.7 and complete activity 22.1.
While Sections 22.6 and 22.7 are about controlling inflation we have
already dealt with the analytics of this in the previous block and in
Chapter 21 of BVFD (Sections 21.6 through 21.8, including discussion of
the Taylor rule). The final two sections of the current chapter add some
real world institutional context. They describe how credible low inflation
targets are used to get inflation under control, and how this has been
relatively successful in the past 20 years. Central bank independence
has been an important part of this. Nonetheless, deciding where to set
interest rates to achieve an inflation target is no easy task. There are
continual shocks to the economy of various sizes, and it is not always
easy to distinguish permanent and temporary demand and supply shocks,
or to know how best to respond to these. Many central banks publish
reports after their committee meetings, detailing why they have decided
to maintain or to change interest rates.6 Transparency regarding their
decision making process also helps to keep inflationary expectations in
line.
BVFD: read the summary and work through the review questions.
Overview
226
227
Notes
228
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
discuss measured unemployment, both claimant count and
standardised rate
define classical, frictional, structural and demand-deficient
unemployment
distinguish between voluntary and involuntary unemployment
analyse determinants of unemployment
explain how supply-side policies reduce equilibrium unemployment
evaluate private and social costs of unemployment
explain hysteresis.
229
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 23.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapter 21; UK edition,
Chapter 23.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 9, section 9.3.
Rates of unemployment
BVFD: read the introduction to Chapter 23.
The introduction provides a brief historical background on unemployment
rates for the UK.
Do you know how unemployment has risen and fallen in your own country?
For example, the unemployment rate in Malaysia has been surprisingly
steady over the last decade. In contrast to other countries, it only increased
slightly during the global financial crisis, as firms tended to cut down
on overtime rather than lay off workers. Most job losses occurred in the
manufacturing sector and especially among foreign workers. (Khoon and
Mau-Hui, 2010).1
230
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
0.0
Let the number of unemployed people be U (these are people who are
actively seeking work).
Let the labour force be LF (those who are either employed or looking
for work).
Let people who are not in the labour force be NFL (these are inactive
and include homemakers, students who are not working, people who
are too sick to work, etc.).
Let the working age population be P:
Working-age population: P = LF + NLF
Unemployment rate: u = U/LF
Employment rate: e = E/P
Labour force participation rate: lfp = LF/P.
Activity SG19.2
What is the unemployment rate in a country with a working-age population of 1,000, a
labour force participation rate of 80% and 100 unemployed people?
This section also briefly describes the flows between employment,
unemployment and inactivity, as well as the duration and composition
of unemployment. Long-term unemployment is associated with greater
231
2007
2010
2007
2010
Australia
4.4
5.2
15.4
18.5
France
8.4
9.8
40.2
40.1
Germany
8.7
7.1
56.6
47.4
Spain
8.3
20.1
27.6
45.1
Japan
3.9
5.1
32.0
37.6
Korea
3.2
3.7
0.6
0.3
Sweden
6.1
8.4
13.0
16.6
UK
5.3
7.8
23.7
32.6
USA
4.6
9.6
10.0
29.0
OECD
5.7
8.6
29.0
32.4
There are several striking features to this table. One is the huge diversity in
the experience of OECD countries (supposedly a relatively homogeneous
group of countries; really poor countries and many emerging economies
are not OECD members). While all countries except Germany experienced
increases in unemployment, for some this increase was relatively modest
(Australia, UK, Korea) while for others it was dramatic; for very different
reasons the unemployment rate more than doubled in the US and in
Spain. The incidence of long-term unemployment (here defined as being
unemployed for a year or more) also increased across the board, with
Germany being the only exception. The USA historically has been a
country with relatively little long-term unemployment, but its incidence
increased threefold during the recession. Given the private and social costs
of long-term unemployment the incidence of long-term unemployment in
some European countries poses very serious problems.
Activity SG19.3
Why do you suppose the incidence of long-term unemployment is so low in Korea?
This section also highlights that youth unemployment is often higher than
unemployment for the labour force as a whole. Young people tend to have
unemployment rates that are higher than the national average, partly
because they generally have less work-experience. In recent years, many
countries have seen extremely high levels of youth unemployment. For a
data visualisation of this problem on a global scale, interested students
should see: www.weforum.org/community/global-agenda-councils/youthunemployment-visualization-2013
232
Analysis of unemployment
BVFD: read section 23.2 and concept 23.1.
Below we take the analysis of equilibrium unemployment a bit further
using the stocks and flows framework but you need also to be familiar
with the graphical analysis in BVFD using the LD, AJ and LF schedules.
Pay special attention to the role of rigid real wages in increasing
unemployment (both equilibrium and Keynesian) within this framework.
Although Figures 23.4 and 23.5 are very similar, they highlight a key
distinction which is very important in the analysis of unemployment.
Figure 23.4 shows how total unemployment at wage w2 (AC) is broken
down into voluntary (BC) and involuntary (AB) unemployment (although,
somewhat confusingly, unemployment AB is subsequently defined as
being voluntary as well (with workers being part of the institutional
arrangements responsible for wage w2 and its stickiness). In this case,
the wage is higher than the equilibrium level due to labour market
imperfections or reasons such trade union power. A rigid real wage above
the equilibrium level is causing there to be both voluntary and involuntary
unemployment. In Figure 23.5, the total unemployment at W* (AF) is also
broken down into voluntary (EF) and involuntary (AE) unemployment,
once again because of a rigid real wage above the equilibrium level. In
this case, the reason is that demand for labour has fallen from LD to LD
(but the equilibrium wage level has not fallen to W** as it is expected to
in the longer term). The distance AE is demand-deficient or Keynesian
unemployment.
The optimal policy approaches to these two situations are quite different.
In the first case, government policy should take a supply-side approach
to addressing wage rigidities. This approach is discussed in section 23.3
(though the supply-side policies discussed in 23.3 also focus on bringing
the AJ and LF curves closer together). On the other hand, unemployment
that is caused by a deficiency in aggregate demand can be addressed
via demand-management tools, namely fiscal and monetary policy. This
is discussed very briefly in section 23.4. In some sense, it has been a
key theme of our analysis for several chapters, as our analysis of the
macroeconomy has focused on reducing or eliminating any gap between
actual and potential output. Whether it is more appropriate to apply
a supply-side approach or a demand management approach depends
on the situation of the economy if output is close to potential output,
trying to increase demand will only lead to inflation. In this case, the
best way to reduce unemployment is to focus on the supply-side. If the
economy is below potential output, there is an important role for demand
management to boost aggregate demand and this would be expected to
bring about a substantial reduction in unemployment.
In the language of the diagrams described above, although involuntary
unemployment could be tackled in both graphs by addressing the rigidity
of the real wage such that wage levels would fall to w* in Figure 23.4 and
w** in Figure 23.5, the demand-management approach is favoured in the
case of demand-deficient or Keynesian unemployment, and this would
be depicted by a rightward shift in the labour demand curve back to the
original position at LD.
233
Activity SG19.4
Match the concept of unemployment with its definition in the schematic below.
Frictional unemployment
Structural unemployment
Demand-deficient
unemployment
Classical unemployment
Voluntary unemployment
Involuntary unemployment
3
Measuring
unemployment
duration in practice
is complicated by the
fact that what we
observe when we
survey the unemployed
are incomplete spells
of unemployment
whereas what we are
primarily interested in
(and certainly what
unemployed workers
are interested in) is how
long a completed spell
of unemployment lasts.
Estimating the latter
from the former raises
some quite complex
statistical issues.
Changes in unemployment
BVFD: read section 23.3 and complete activity 23.1.
This section is also UK oriented but in reading the material, do your best
to extract the general principles. For example, the four key reasons cited
for changes in equilibrium unemployment are likely to apply not just to
the UK and you should make sure you understand them clearly and can
explain them using the diagrammatic framework (LD, AJ, LF) used in
BVFD. The specific conclusions drawn depend, of course, on being able
to separate actual from equilibrium unemployment when looking at the
unemployment data for a given economy. The reason that BVFD dont
explain how this is done is because the separation requires understanding
of technical statistical techniques that go beyond what can be covered
in an elementary course. It is perhaps worth saying that estimates of
equilibrium unemployment are likely to be subject to a considerable
margin of error. That does not mean that it is not worth making such
estimates. As explained in the chapter, if observed unemployment coincides
with equilibrium unemployment then governments should not attempt to
reduce it by expanding aggregate demand, but instead need to address the
underlying structural factors, largely on the supply side, that determine
equilibrium unemployment. This is valuable information for policy makers.
BVFD: read Maths 23.1.
An income tax can be seen as a tax on sellers, since workers are supplying
their labour to the firm and income tax reduces the incentives for workers
to supply their labour. This would be represented in Figure 23.9 by an
upward sloping line parallel to and to the left of AJ, passing through point
A. Alternatively, it can be described, as it is in this maths box, as a factor
that shifts demand for labour, since firms care about the gross cost of
hiring workers. This would be represented in Figure 23.9 by a downward
sloping line parallel to and below LD, passing through point B.
235
Activity SG19.6
Use the (LD, AJ, LF) framework to illustrate the effects of the following supply-side factors
on unemployment:
a. a rise in the use of online employment websites for job search decreases skill
mismatch
b. a fall in unemployment benefit, decreasing the replacement rate
c. a fall in trade union power
d. an increase in marginal tax rates.
Activity SG19.7
Based on the equations in Maths 23.1, let a = 10, b = 0.2, c = 0.3, e = 30, f = 1, t = 10
a. Draw a graph of this initial setup with two labour demand curves with and without
the tax.
b. Calculate equilibrium unemployment.
c. How does equilibrium unemployment change when the tax is reduced to 5? Draw this
line onto your diagram as well.
d. Imagine c was in fact equal to 0.8 now calculate equilibrium unemployment when t
is equal to 10 and when t is equal to 5.
Cyclical unemployment
BVFD: read section 23.4 and case 23.2.
The way that cyclical unemployment is defined in L&C (UK edition p.573;
international edition p.473) helps to connect the analysis here with
what was learned in the previous chapters Cyclical unemployment, or
demand-deficient unemployment, occurs whenever there is a negative
GDP gap (i.e. total demand is insufficient to purchase all of the economys
potential output, causing a recessionary gap in which actual output is
less than potential output). Cyclical unemployment can be measured as
the number of people who would be employed if the economy were at
potential GDP minus the number of persons currently employed.
While section 23.3 focused on supply-side policies to address
unemployment, this section discusses the use of counter-cyclical demand
management policies. Keynes original policy recommendations to
address the extremely high unemployment levels of the 1930s focused on
increasing government spending to offset the lack of private consumption
and investment. He argued it didnt necessarily matter what the money
was spent on (though of course he favoured productive projects) what
was important was to increase aggregate demand. This would lead to
economic growth and a fall in unemployment. Keynesian ideas strongly
influenced the US Presidents Herbert Hoover and Franklin D. Roosevelt,
who embarked on extensive public works programmes including the
building of roads and bridges as well as relief programmes providing
housing support, food, medicines, and other basic necessities to the
unemployed. The massive spending undertaken as countries invested
in armaments for the Second World War has been credited with finally
ending the mass unemployment of the depression years.
Various countries also used expansionary fiscal policy in an attempt to
re-stimulate their economies after the recent credit crunch. For example,
the US Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 (a $152 billion stimulus consisting
236
Cost of unemployment
BVFD: read section 23.5 and concept 23.2.
Despite the safety net that is provided in the UK by Jobseekers Allowance,
most forms of unemployment apart from short-duration frictional
unemployment are associated with large personal costs these include a
loss of income, an erosion of human capital (meaning that skills deteriorate
when they are not being used) and psychic costs such as feeling rejected
or not useful. Furthermore, although it is true that if unemployment is
voluntary then, by definition, the private benefits of unemployment exceed
the private costs, it does not follow that the voluntarily unemployed are
not suffering considerable hardship. This could well be the case where
the potential jobs available to the unemployed are low paid and at the
same time the state pays low unemployment benefits, as measured by the
replacement rate. Look at the case of Greece in case 23.2, for example.
The replacement rate is comparatively low (and falls rapidly after the first
year of eligibility) and the employment opportunities available to Greek
workers during Greeces recent troubled circumstances were very limited
and poorly paid. Unemployed Greek workers have had very low living
standards during this period.
The social costs of unemployment are also extensive, and include a loss of
output and aggregate income, an increase in inequality, a loss of human
capital for the society as a whole resulting in lower productivity.
Hysteresis
Concept 23.2 outlines four reasons why hysteresis (a temporary fall in
demand inducing permanently lower output and employment) may occur
and its policy implications. The existence of hysteresis is one reason why
governments are so eager to prevent unemployment rising in the first
237
place. Hysteresis also undermines the strict classical view of the natural
rate of unemployment whereby fluctuations in demand affect only shortrun output, employment and unemployment, all of which return to their
underlying classically-determined levels in the long run. If hysteresis could
be established empirically as a significant phenomenon, and there is still
controversy on this point, then recessions could raise the natural rate of
unemployment, leaving the economy permanently scarred.
Overview
The total working-age population consists of the labour force and those
who are inactive. The labour force consists of the employed plus the
unemployed. The participation rate is the labour force divided by the
total population. The unemployment rate is the unemployed divided by
the labour force. Unemployment can be classified as frictional, structural,
classical or demand-deficient unemployment. BVFD define voluntary
unemployment, or equilibrium unemployment, to include frictional,
structural and classical unemployment. Involuntary unemployment is
equivalent to demand-deficient unemployment, also known as cyclical or
Keynesian unemployment. The natural rate of unemployment is defined
as the equilibrium rate of voluntary unemployment. Temporary recessions
lead to increased cyclical unemployment. This can be addressed using
the demand-management tools of fiscal and monetary policy. A one
per cent increase in output is likely to lead to a much smaller reduction
in cyclical unemployment due to increases in hours worked by those
currently employed and increased numbers joining the labour force. In
the long run, the only way to reduce unemployment permanently is to
reduce the natural rate of unemployment through supply-side policies
such as reducing mismatch through better information and retraining,
reducing trade union power, cutting the marginal rate of income tax
and reducing unemployment benefits (of course, society may choose
a higher equilibrium rate of unemployment rather than adopt some of
these policies). There is also a link between cyclical unemployment and
the natural rate of unemployment, since short-run changes can move the
economy to a different long-run equilibrium. This is known as hysteresis.
Most forms of unemployment, apart from frictional unemployment, are
associated with large personal costs including lost income, an erosion of
human capital and psychic costs, as well as social costs including a loss of
output and aggregate income, increased inequality, a loss of human capital
for the society as a whole resulting in lower productivity, and the effects
on the public finances of unemployment benefits and lost tax revenue.
Low unemployment is one of the three major macroeconomic goals of
many governments, along with steady growth and low inflation.
238
Percent/Percentage Points
8
6
4
2
0
-2
1990
1995
2000
2005
240
2010
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
analyse the foreign exchange market
discuss balance of payments accounts
explain determinants of current account flows
define perfect capital mobility
assess speculative behaviour and capital flows
define internal and external balance
analyse the long-run equilibrium exchange rate.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 24.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition Chapter 22; UK edition
Chapter 24.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 14.
in the block. Under floating exchange rates, the balance of payments will
balance automatically, though when exchange rates are fixed, there is a
need for government intervention so that the current account and capital
and financial accounts offset each other. This block also introduces real
and purchasing power parity exchange rates as well as the interest parity
condition. Finally, the block also discusses the importance of external
balance as well as long-run trade balance between countries.
UK
$US1.571/
Germany
1.244/
Malaysia
$US0.286/MR
UK
0.804/
It is common to assume the demand for imports is elastic and draw the
supply curve of currency sloping upwards. When demand for imports is
elastic, a fall in the $/ exchange rate (the pound getting weaker against
the dollar) will lead to a fall in the volume of imports (since US goods
are now more expensive for UK residents), and this fall in volume will
be proportionately larger than the increased price of imports. Therefore,
fewer pounds in total will be spent on imports. Thus there is a positive
relationship between the exchange rate and the supply of pounds, and the
supply curve slopes upwards (when demand for imports is elastic).
Trade is often analysed as taking place between two countries (this
enables use of simple diagrammatic techniques among other things) and
242
overvalued
buy
rise
b.
overvalued
sell
rise
c.
undervalued
buy
rise
d.
overvalued
buy
fall
Between these two extremes there are other methods of how the
government allows exchange rates to be determined. These include (for
example) a crawling peg system, where a countrys currency is pegged to
the value of another currency, but the government explicitly recognises
that this will be allowed to change from time to time, when needed;
and a managed float, where the currency is allowed to move freely, but
the government participates in the market to damp large fluctuations.
Exchange rate regimes are represented below as a continuum, with the
most government involvement on the left and the most market flexibility
on the right.
Currency Board
Hong Kong, Bulgaria
Currency Union
Eurozone, dollarizaon
Fixed Peg
China, Pakistan
Crawling Peg
Cost Rica
Managed Float
India, Singapore, Russia
Crawling Bands
Denmark
Free Float
UK, USA, Sweden
real exchange rate = RER = price of Malaysian Big Mac in terms of US Big Mac
or
RER =
=
= 0.45
US Big Macs
Malaysian Big Macs
245
(i.e. at current prices and the current nominal exchange rate) one obtains
0.45 of a US Big Mac per Malaysian Big Mac. If the exchange rate reflected
PPP a Big Mac would cost the same in both countries. Clearly, at the
nominal exchange rate a Big Mac is much cheaper in Malaysia than in
the USA. In fact, one can get 2.27 (4.79/2.11) Big Macs in Malaysia for
each US Big Mac. What does this say about the value of the Malaysian
ringgit versus the US dollar? It tells us that the ringgit is undervalued. To
see this, imagine Malaysia could export its Big Macs to the USA and sell
them for $2.11 (transport costs and food decay are ignored here just to
illustrate the basic principle). There would be a big demand for ringgits by
US importers and this would bid up the dollar price of ringgits. Americans
would have to pay more dollars for their ringgits. How much more? This
question is answered by calculating x in 7.63x = 4.79. x is the dollar cost
of a MYR, and the equation calculates what this would have to be in order
for an imported Big Mac to cost the same as a domestically made one. The
answer is $0.63 (63 cents).
When the dollar value of the ringgit increases from 28 to 63 cents it is
no longer advantageous to import Big Macs from Malaysia. Equivalently,
while the nominal exchange rate is 1USD = 3.62MYR, the implied PPP
exchange rate is 1USD = 1.59MYR (1/0.63). At the current nominal
exchange rate the ringgit is undervalued by (3.62 1.59)/3.62 (i.e. 56
per cent). Obviously this is an oversimplified example and it would not
be sensible to defend the precise 56 per cent undervaluation too strongly;
among other shortcomings of our example, transport costs cannot be
ignored, nor can trade barriers and in calculating PPP one needs to use the
price of basket commodities not just the price of a Big Mac. However, the
basic lesson is that calculations of real exchange rates can tell us whether
nominal exchange rates fundamentally undervalue or overvalue a currency
and consequently whether there is pressure for the currency to appreciate
or depreciate.
For more information on this see: www.economist.com/content/big-macindex
Recall from Block 13 that one of the long response questions asked you
to compare the real GDP of two countries using PPP figures. Using the
PPP exchange rate, rather than $US for example, helps provide a better
understanding of the standard of living in each country. Non-traded
goods and services tend to be cheaper in low-income than in highincome countries and any analysis that doesnt take these differences into
account will tend to underestimate the purchasing power of consumers in
emerging market and developing countries and, consequently, their overall
welfare.
are domestic goods relative to foreign goods; this increases exports and
decreases imports. If you understand this you will see that the following
relationship exists between the RER and net exports (X Z), again taking
the UK as the domestic and the USA as the foreign country (this diagram is
essentially the same as Figure 24.4 in BVFD):
RER
($/)
X-Z
Figure 20.2: Relationship between RER and net exports.
www.globalpolicy.org/
global-taxes/currencytransaction-taxes.html
2
Long-run equilibrium
BVFD: read sections 24.7 and 24.8.
BVFD argue that in long-run equilibrium, both internal and external
balance must hold (p.556). The long-run equilibrium exchange rate must
thus be compatible with internal and external balance. The next chapter,
on open economy macroeconomics, takes this assumption as the basis for
much of the reasoning.
However, long-run equilibrium is an analytical construct not often
approached in reality. In practice it can be argued that a current account
deficit is neither intrinsically good nor bad. There are countries such as
Australia (a small open economy) which have sustained current account
deficits for several decades. The IMF writes that whether a country should
run a current account deficit (borrow more) depends on the extent of
its foreign liabilities (its external debt) and on whether the borrowing
will be financing investment that has a higher marginal product than
the interest rate (or rate of return) the country has to pay on its foreign
liabilities.4 This means that running a current account deficit (investing
more than is saved domestically) can be a good idea, even in the longterm, if it is manageable and the incoming capital flows are being invested
productively, generating more wealth for the next generation out of which
the countrys debts can be repaid.
Despite this, external balance is nonetheless important in the sense
that global imbalances can have severe consequences. For example, it is
thought that the current imbalance between the USA and China where
the USA has massive trade deficits and China has massive trade surpluses
(partly a result of the undervalued Chinese yuan) helped establish the
conditions which contributed to the recent financial crisis.
The following block (covering textbook Chapter 25) focuses on internal
and external balance as a way of examining the effects of various fiscal
and monetary policy stances under different types of exchange rate
mechanisms and different assumptions concerning capital mobility.
BVFD: read the summary and work through the review questions.
Overview
This block firstly introduces exchange rates, which express the price of
one countrys currency in terms of another countrys currency. Exchange
rates are determined by the supply and demand for currency, arising
from exports/imports and trade in assets. Floating exchange rates equate
demand and supply, while fixed exchange rates require government
intervention in the forex market (buying or selling domestic or foreign
currency) so that supply and demand are equated. The real exchange rate
takes into consideration the domestic and international price levels.
The balance of payments consists of the current, financial and capital
accounts. Monetary inflows are recorded as credits and outflows as
debits. Under floating exchange rates, the balance of payments is always
248
4
www.imf.org/external/
pubs/ft/fandd/basics/
current.htm
249
15
Merchandise imports
10
12
Exports of services
Imports of services
10
Unilateral transfers
250
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
describe price and output adjustment under fixed exchange rates
explain the effects of a devaluation
describe what determines floating exchange rates
use the ISLMBP framework to analyse changes in monetary and
fiscal policy under fixed and floating exchange rate regimes.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 25.
Further reading
Witztum (AW), Chapter 14.
251
252
BP
r*
IS
Y*
Full capital controls
BP
LM
LM
BP
r*
r*
IS
Y*
IS
Y*
Under fixed ER, the BP curve doesnt shift, regardless of the degree of
capital mobility. If there is a surplus or deficit in the balance of payments,
adjustments occur through changes in the money supply (LM curve), since
the central bank is always ready to buy and sell sufficient quantities of the
domestic currency to keep the exchange rate fixed at an agreed upon level.
(Under flexible exchange rates, the BP curve can shift, but only when
capital is not perfectly mobile. A shift in the BP curve reflects a change in
the level of net exports as net exports rises, the current account improves
(i.e. becomes less negative) and the economy does not need as high a level
of capital inflows at each income level as it did before, therefore, the BP
curve shifts to the right.)
Activity SG21.1
Assuming fixed exchange rates and perfect capital mobility, use the IS-LM-BP framework
to demonstrate the effects of an increase in demand for exports on output and interest
rates.
When there is free capital mobility, countries can fix only one of the
following three: the interest rate, the exchange rate and the money supply.
Countries which peg their exchange rates to another countrys currency
cannot operate an independent monetary policy to address internal
inflation and aggregate demand issues, since domestic interest rates can
only be used to defend the fixed exchange rate. BVFD discuss how the
economy gets back to internal and external balance after a shock despite
not being able to pursue independent monetary policy. Since the domestic
price level is assumed to be constant in the IS-LM model, and since
253
LM
LM
r1
BP
r*
BP
r*
IS
IS
IS
Y*
Y1 Y2
Figure 21.2: Monetary and fiscal policy under fixed exchange rates and perfect
capital mobility.
LM
To purchase the foreign exchange, the central bank sells the domestic
currency, increasing the money supply and shifting the LM curve outwards
(2) causing a further increase in output Y1 Y2. Fiscal policy is actually
more effective in this scenario than in a closed economy. This is because
interest rates are held constant to protect the exchange rate, so there is no
crowding out of private investment as there would be in a closed economy
when expansionary fiscal policy is implemented.
BVFD: read Maths 25.1.
This maths box shows that under floating exchange rates, there is a
negative relationship between output and inflation when the government
pursues a monetary policy where they raise interest rates when inflation
is higher. Under a fixed exchange rate, however, there are two ways in
which the price level is related to output through real interest rates,
and through real exchange rates. Since nominal interest rates are fixed,
higher inflation leads to lower real interest rates which boost aggregate
demand. On the other hand, higher inflation leads to an increase in the
real exchange rate and a fall in competitiveness, reducing aggregate
demand. The AD curve will slope down as long as the second effect
dominates the first. Work through the equations in this maths box to make
sure you understand this result.
255
t0
Time
Figure 21.3: J-curve.
256
Activity SG21.3
The following graph shows the exchange rate between GBP and EUR what might
explain the sudden drop just after 09.00 on 28 April?
1,4020
1,4000
1,3980
1,3960
1,3940
18:00
28Apr
06:00
12:00
Source: www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/a-volatile-period-for-sterling/
It is important to realise that when the government fixes the exchange
rate, they lose autonomy over the interest rate. Equally, when the
government fixes the interest rate, they lose autonomy over the exchange
rate. The exchange rate adjusts to prevent massive capital flows in
response to interest rate changes.
Exchange rates as a monetary policy instrument as discussed in Block
15, Singapore uses the exchange rate as its primary tool for conducting
monetary policy. It manages the exchange rate through direct intervention
in the foreign exchange market (operating a managed float regime where
the trade weighted exchange rate for the Singapore dollar is allowed to
fluctuate within a policy band) and lets domestic interest rates move freely
according to market forces. This stands in contrast to standard monetary
policy as implemented in most other countries, where interest rates are
the key tool. This has proven to be a very effective approach for Singapore,
which has a small, very open economy.
257
LM
LM
r1
BP
IS
Y
BP
r*
IS
Y1 Y2
IS
IS
Y*
Y1
Figure 21.5: Monetary and fiscal policy under floating exchange rates and
perfect capital mobility.
258
Monetary Policy
Fixed
Effective
Exchange (The fiscal stimulus provided by the government
Rates
must be accompanied by an increase in money
supply to hold interest rates constant and protect
the exchange rate, as such there will be no
crowding out of private investment)
Ineffective
Flexible
Ineffective
Exchange (A fiscal expansion leads to a boom, higher
Rates
interest rates, and an appreciation of the nominal
exchange rate, leading to a deterioration of the
current account. This nullifies the initial stimulating
effect. The IS curve returns to its original position)
Effective
BVFD: complete activity 25.1, read the summary and work through the
review questions.
Overview
A countrys exchange rate regime has a profound effect on the way the
economy operates, though this depends on the size and openness of the
economy. Openness is often measured by the size of exports relative to
GDP. However, capital flows also have a big impact. Capital can either
be perfectly mobile, perfectly immobile (due to capital controls) or
partially mobile (such as when foreign and domestic assets are not perfect
substitutes). The impact of various shocks and the effectiveness of fiscal
and monetary policy under fixed or floating exchange rates and different
assumptions about capital mobility can be illustrated using IS-LM-BP
analysis.
Under fixed exchange rates and perfect capital mobility, there is no scope
for monetary policy to influence the domestic economy, since the domestic
interest rate must match foreign rates to prevent massive capital inflows
and outflows. In the long run, internal and external balance may be
restored without policy intervention through changes in prices and output.
Fiscal policy is a powerful tool in the context of fixed exchange rates and
capital mobility, since interest rates must remain stable and there is no
crowding out of private consumption or investment.
The level of fixed exchange rates can sometimes be changed this is
either a revaluation (rise in value) or a devaluation (fall in value) of the
exchange rate. A devaluation improves competitiveness in the short run
but is unlikely to have a large effect in the long run, though it can help
speed up adjustment to shocks.
A floating exchange rate must begin at a level from which the anticipated
convergent path to its long-run equilibrium continuously provides capital
gains or losses to offset expected interest rate differentials. The actual path
of nominal exchange rates reflects changing beliefs about the future course
of domestic and foreign exchange rates and the eventual level of the longrun exchange rate.
Under floating exchange rates, the effectiveness of fiscal policy is limited, but
monetary policy is a powerful tool. Monetary policy impacts on aggregate
demand through consumption and investment (as in a closed economy) and
also through its impact on the exchange rate and competitiveness.
259
LM
BP
IS
Y1
Y2
Y3
government to let the exchange rate freely float, assuming that this
would return the economy to potential output. Based only on this
information, use a second standard IS-LM-BP model diagram to
accurately and clearly show:
i. Chinas initial economic situation, and what happens to
equilibrium, interest rates, and the balance of payments if
the Chinese government allows that exchange rate to become
completely flexible.
c. For each of the following variables, identify whether it is higher,
lower, the same, or indeterminate in Scenario #1 (monetary
policy) when compared to Scenario #2 (flexible exchange rate):
i. equilibrium income
ii. interest rates
iii. investment
iv. net exports
v. the exchange rate
vi. the balance of payments.
262
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
distinguish between trend growth and economic cycles around this
path
analyse why output gaps may fluctuate
discuss whether potential output also fluctuates
describe the role of dynamic general equilibrium models
contrast real business cycle models and New Keynesian analysis
assess whether national business cycles are now more correlated
summarise key issues dividing the main schools of economic thought.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD) Chapter 27.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C) international edition, Chapter 21; UK edition,
Chapter 23.
Output
t=1
10
10
100
t=2
10
10
120
t=3
20
10
10
20
10
140
t=4
20
10
10
20
140
t=5
10
10
-10
120
t=6
20
10
10
-10
100
t=7
20
10
10
100
t=8
10
10
10
120
t=9
20
10
10
20
10
140
Yt = Yt1 + 2*I
265
Activity SG22.2
The table below is based on Maths box 27.1 and includes consumption as a further
element of the system. Use the formulas provided for each column, assuming a = 5/4 and
c = 2/3, to complete the table (do calculations to the nearest whole number). Assume
that Y = 0 prior to period 1 (hint: this makes investment = 38 in period 2). This example
shows how the multiplier-accelerator interaction can produce cycles. In other respects, the
actual numbers are somewhat unrealistic. Think about why this is.
Period (1)
Autonomous
Consumption (2)
Induced
Induced
Consumption (3) Investment (4)
Income /Output
(5) = (2 +3 + 4)
A = 30
cY1,
I = a (Y1 Y2), Y = C + I
30
10
11
12
Figure 22.1 describes how ceilings and floors in aggregate supply and
investment can generate cycles. The various components of the figure can
be explained as follows: The equilibrium path of outcome is EE, around
which actual output fluctuates. FF is the floor line whilst CC is the ceiling.
VW is an expansion phase. The slow-down in growth from VW to WX leads
to a fall in induced investment and results in the downturn at point X.
XY is the recession/contraction phase. Investment is declining.
Once the fall in output slows down, this will lead to another turning point
at Z, followed by another increase in output in the new recovery phase.
Output
E
F
Y
V
Time
Figure 22.1: Ceilings and floors.
266
Business Cycle
Phase (6)
Activity SG22.3
In your own words, briefly summarise the discussion of how fluctuations in stockbuilding
and competitiveness can lead to business cycles.
Another theory of business cycles which is not discussed in this chapter
is Austrian business cycle theory, based largely on the work of
Friedrich Hayek, which proposes that business cycles are driven by
distortions in the availability of credit. For interested students, an article
which briefly explains this theory, and also provides a good overview of
some of the other theories discussed in this chapter, is available here:
www.economist.com/node/1336182 (optional).
268
1
Duval, M.R.A., M.K.C.
Cheng, K.H. Oh, R. Saraf
and M.D. Seneviratne
Trade integration
and business cycle
synchronization: a
reappraisal with focus
on Asia (No. 14-52),
(International Monetary
Fund, 2014).
2
Goggin, J. and I.
Siedschlag International
transmission of business
cycles between Ireland
and its trading partners.
(No. 279). ESRI (The
Economic and Social
Research Institute,
Dublin, 2009) working
paper.
Activity SG22.5
To help you work through this material, summarise it by filling out the table below. Then check your responses by comparing it to the
summary table the authors have created (Table 27.2).
Schools of Modern Macroeconomic Thought
New Classical
Gradual Monetarist
Market
clearing
Issues
Unique
long-run
equilibrium?
Expectations
formation
Short run
and long run
Policy
Implications
BVFD: read the summary and work through the review questions.
269
Overview
This block firstly defines business cycles as fluctuations in output around
the long-run trend path of output. Data on output clearly demonstrate the
existence of business cycles, which tend to last around five years. Secondly,
various possible causes of business cycles are discussed, including
political opportunism, the interaction between consumption, investment
and previous output, as described by the multiplier-accelerator model,
fluctuations in stockbuilding, and reactions to shocks under fixed exchange
rates. Some economists argue that potential output also fluctuates; this
is described by real business cycle theory, which argues that fluctuations
in potential output are the result of peoples rational, efficient reactions
to shocks in the real economy, especially productivity shocks. Although
most counter-cyclical policies are demand focused, aggregate demand
and aggregate supply both contribute to the business cycle. If a demand
shock has a long-term impact on output and aggregate supply, such that a
short-run shock impacts the long-run path of the economy, this is known as
hysteresis. The increasing integration of world markets, including financial
markets, has led to movements in output becoming increasingly linked to
output fluctuations worldwide. Synchronisation of business cycles between
countries has increased over the previous few decades, especially between
countries which are trading partners. This block concludes with an
overview of the main schools of modern macroeconomic thought. The key
points on which they differ are the speed with which markets (especially
the labour market) clear, how expectations are formed, the possibility of
hysteresis, and the relative importance of the short run and long run.
1984
1986
1988
1990 1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006 2008
2010
2012 2014
b. Describe at least two possible reasons for the pattern of actual output
you have depicted.
c. Potential output is often depicted as a smooth, gently rising line.
However, it does not necessarily need to increase smoothly over time.
What might explain fluctuations in potential output?
271
Notes
272
Learning outcomes
By the end of this block and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
explain supply-side economics
discuss growth in potential output
describe Malthus forecast of eventual starvation and how technical
progress and capital accumulation made this forecast wrong
describe the Solow model of economic growth
explain the convergence hypothesis
analyse the growth performance of rich and poor countries
discuss endogenous growth and the potential impact of policy on
growth
discuss the implications of growth for environmental sustainability.
Essential reading
Begg, Vernasca, Fischer and Dornbusch (BVFD), Chapter 28.
Further reading
Lipsey and Chrystal (L&C), international edition, Chapter 23; UK edition,
Chapter 26.
Witztum (AW), Chapter 9.
Supply-side economics
BVFD: read the introduction to Chapter 28 and section 28.1.
While the main focus of this block is on economic growth (i.e. sustained
increases in economic well-being, the chapter begins with a discussion
of factors that can lead to one-off changes in output. Analytically, these
can be characterised as increases in any of the inputs in the economys
aggregate production function (see BVFD section 28.3) or anything that
makes a given level of these inputs more productive.
Economic growth can be represented very simply as an outward shift in a
countrys PPF. The frontier is determined by the quantity and productivity
of a countrys resources (land, labour, capital and raw materials), and an
increase in either will lead to an expansion in the countrys production
possibilities.
Output of
good A
Output of good B
Figure 23.1: PPF before and after economic growth.
1
The textbook
discussion on increasing
labour input implicitly
holds population
constant, but of course
increases in population
can increase labour
input and total output
as well. The effect of
population growth on
per capita output is, of
course, another matter,
as we discuss below.
2
www.ecb.europa.eu/
press/key/date/2004/
html/sp040622_1.
en.html
Economic growth
BVFD: read section 28.2.
The remainder of this chapter considers economic growth over the longterm. Anything that affects the long-run rate of economic growth by even a
very small amount makes a vast difference to potential output after a few
decades. For example, a difference in annual growth rates of just half a per
cent leads to huge differences in living standards after 25 or 50 years.
annual growth
rate of income
per capita
10 years
25 years
50 years
100 years
3.00%
34%
109%
338%
1822%
3.50%
41%
136%
458%
3019%
3
For an interesting
discussion of this see the
Harvard Business Review
article The Economics
of Well-Being at https://
hbr.org/2012/01/theeconomics-of-well-being
Inputs to production
BVFD: read sections 28.3 and 28.4 as well as case 28.1.
These two sections describe the inputs to production and provide
information that will be very useful in understanding the models of
economic growth introduced towards the end of the chapter. Section 28.3
can be summarised in a production function as follows:
Y = f(Capital, Labour, Human Capital, Land, Raw Materials)
The amount of output that the available factors of production can
produce depends not only on the amount of each factor, but also on scale
economies and the way that the factors of production are combined, for
example, higher human capital may lead to higher output directly and also
through increasing the productivity of capital.
Adding technical knowledge to this, as per section 28.4, can be expressed in
the following production function, where A represents technical progress.
Y =A*f(Capital, Labour, Human Capital, Land, Raw Materials)
This section emphasises the importance of investment to drive invention
and innovation. Much technical progress is the result of activities by profitseeking firms. To encourage this, governments provide protection for their
ideas in the form of patents. Furthermore, governments also subsidise
research and development for example in universities.
4
This model was initially
developed in the mid1950s by the American
economist Robert Solow,
working at MIT. Solow
received the Nobel Prize
in Economics in 1987
for his contribution to
growth theory.
Two key assumptions of this model are that there are constant returns to
scale (CRS), and diminishing marginal productivity of capital (MPK).
CRS enable us to write the production function in the per worker version:
K
Y
= Af ( ,1)
L
L
(we have multiplied K and L by 1/L. CRS then means Y is also multiplied
by 1/L). Ignoring the constant 1 and writing y and k for output and capital
in per worker terms:
y = AF (k)
This is illustrated in Figure 28.3 of BVFD the green line shows the path
of income against capital per worker, and is concave downward because of
the decreasing MPK. Adding more capital per worker, k, increases output
per worker, y, but with diminishing returns. A slightly fuller version of that
diagram is presented here as Figure 23.1. This enables us to analyse the
Solow model in a bit more detail. The per worker production function is
represented by the curve labelled y. This production function represents
the supply side of the model.
The demand side is represented very simply by the equation Y = C + I
which you should be very familiar from the closed economy macro models
in earlier blocks. Assume a constant marginal (and average) propensity to
save of s. Dividing through by L again we have:
y = (1-s)y + i
or: i = sy = sF(k)
(savings equals investment in a closed economy). This investment
schedule is also shown in Figure 23.2 and by the orange line in BVFD
Figure 28.3. The dotted line from k* up to the green line represents output
at that level of capital per worker. This can be divided into investment
(below point E) and consumption (above point E).
This is the basic model. It is very simple. The production function
determines the economys output and the consumption function
determines how this output is divided between consumption and
investment. There is one additional feature which is important; the Solow
model makes the growth of the economys capital stock endogenous to the
model. Investment increases the capital stock, while depreciation of capital
reduces it. Let per cent of the capital stock wear out each year ( is the
depreciation rate). Thus:
K = I K
Dividing through by L, this can be written in per-worker terms:
K = i K = sy K = sF(k) K
(This is equivalent to equation (1) in Maths 28.1).5
For the capital stock to be constant we require k = 0, i.e. i = K . If L is
not constant, but is growing (due to population growth or immigration) at
a constant rate n, then in order to keep the capital per worker constant not
only does worn out capital have to be replaced but additional investment
is required to provide capital for the new workers resulting from
population growth; so now for k = 0 we require:
i = ( + n)k
In Figure 23.2 this is shown by the straight line with slope ( + n). The
( + n)k line is not related to output, it simply depicts the amount of
investment that is required for capital per worker to remain constant when
there is population growth and depreciation; in this sense, one can think
277
i = sy
consumption
net investment
depreciation
k1
k*
Shifts in the parameters will shift the relevant lines and lead to a different
steady-state rate of capital per person. The savings rate plays an
important role in the Solow model, but it is important to understand
the exact nature of this role. For a given production function, a higher
propensity to save results in higher k* and y*. As can be seen in BVFD
Figure 28.4, a higher savings rate s shifts the savings/investment line
upwards (but not the y curve). This leads to a higher steady state level
of capital per worker and a higher output per worker. On the other hand,
a higher rate of population growth or depreciation will shift the break278
6
We dont prove it here,
but an important aspect
of transition dynamics
is that the further
below its steady state
output an economy is
the more rapidly it will
grow (towards it). An
analogous result applies
if y > y*
even investment line upwards, leading to a lower steady state capital per
worker and lower output per worker. Thus the Solow model predicts that
countries with high savings rates and low rates of population growth will
tend to have higher per capita income. To some extent, this is empirically
corroborated.
Activity SG23.2
In a model without technical progress, use a graph to demonstrate how an increase in the
rate of population growth can lead to changes in the long-run level of per capita output.
Will this affect the long-run per capita growth rate?
Technical progress
BVFD: read section 28.6.
Although it provides some useful insights, the basic model discussed in the
previous section predicts that the rate of per person output growth tends
to zero (i.e. at the steady state, growth in per capita output is zero). Since
that is not what is observed in practice, the Solow model is now extended
to include technical progress specifically, labour augmenting technical
progress. This is key to explaining long-run growth and the improvement
in living standards over generations.
Let us explain more clearly what is meant by labour augmenting technical
progress. Consider the labour input to the production function. We have
written this as L where L is the number of workers. In practice, however,
we are concerned not just with the number of workers but with their
productivity. So we can think of the labour input as being the product
L E (henceforth LE), where E is efficiency per unit of labour. So LE is
units of effective labour (worker-equivalents in BVFD), not just a head
count of workers. Now suppose that due to technical progress E is growing
at a rate t. Hold L constant to keep things simple. Effective labour is
growing at the rate of technical progress, t. If we were to redefine y, and
k as output and capital per unit of effective labour then the steady state
equilibrium would have constant y* (Y*/LE) and k* (K*/LE). For the
capital stock per effective worker to be constant, investment is needed
not just to cover depreciation and population growth but to supply the
extra units of effective labour with capital to work with failure to do this
would result in reductions in capital per unit of effective labour. Note now
that if (Y*/LE) is constant, then with L constant and E growing at a rate
t, Y* and Y*/L must also be growing at a rate t. With technical progress,
the Solow model can produce long-run growth in per capita output. If
we drop the assumption that population and the workforce are constant,
output per worker still grows at t, but total output, Y, in the steady state
grows at t+n.
This extended model is depicted in BVFD Figure 28.5 (for the case where
= 0). The two differences to 28.3 are that the break-even investment
line has the slope (t+n)k, and that all variables are now measured per
unit of effective labour or per worker-equivalent, not per worker. Since
the technological progress was assumed to be labour augmenting, labour
productivity has increased. Investment at the rate (t + n)k now ensures
that steady state capital per worker-equivalent, and hence output per
worker-equivalent, are constant. Since worker-equivalents grow at rate
t+n and workers grow at rate n (which is slower since t is a positive
number), output per worker and capital per worker are increasing at rate
t. With technical progress, there is a steady state level for output and
279
capital per worker-equivalent, but output and capital per worker continue
to grow at a positive rate over time.
Thus the Solow model provides good insights into factors leading to
high levels of output per capita (high saving rate (s), high total factor
productivity (A), low depreciation ()). Growth or decline will occur due
to transition dynamics when something shocks the economy away from
its steady state. The model is less successful at explaining long run growth
in per capita output (income), but exogenous technical progress can
generate such growth. However, as BVFD point out, the fact that there is no
examination of where technical progress comes from it is simply assumed
is unsatisfactory. This shortcoming is what modern endogenous growth
theory attempts to rectify, but before turning to that section 28.7 of the text
provides some more empirical background on economic growth.
280
A quick glance at
Romers classic paper
(Endogenous technical
change, Journal of
Political Economy 98,
October 1990) will
show that the treatment
here and in BVFD is
drastically simplified,
so much so that it is
something a travesty
to call this the Romer
model, although it does
convey the essence of
Romers innovation.
7
8 K
in the following
K
equation is the same as
g in BVFD.
K = sA
K
But, from the production function (given A)
K
K
Y
Y
, so:
Y = sA
Y
Therefore, in this model, provided that sA = we have continuous
economic growth9 resulting from saving and investment, without having
to resort to exogenous technical change, as in the Solow model. Here the
savings propensity, s, (and A as well) affect the rate of growth of output,
not just its steady state level. Note that s and A are both, in principle,
amenable to manipulation by government policy. By contrast, in the Solow
model, we saw that the steady-state rate of capital growth is (+n),
which is exogenously determined, leaving no scope for government policy
to impact on growth rates in the long run. Only exogenous technical
change leads to increased living standards in the Solow model. In the
Romer model a one-off increase in either s or A leads to a permanent
increase in economic growth.
9
If the rate of growth
of the capital stock
(and hence income)
is sufficient to offset
population growth as
well as depreciation
there will be continuous
growth in per capita
incomes as well.
All this comes about by changing the production function from having
diminishing marginal returns to capital to having constant marginal
returns to capital (MPK = A in the Romer model). What is the intuition
behind this change and is it a reasonable one? If K includes ideas and
knowledge (instructions, recipes, management techniques) as well as
objects (machines, buildings, workers, etc.) then it may well be reasonable
that K doesnt run into diminishing returns. This is partly due to the public
goods nature of ideas they are non-rival (although sometimes excludable
by patents and the like recall the discussion of public goods in Block
12). If one firm uses a given technique to produce an industrial product,
or a formula to produce a medical drug, that technique, that formula,
is not used up it is available for other firms to use also. If one firm
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Costs of growth
BVFD: read section 28.9.
Growth in output and consumption is often associated with resource
depletion and environmental problems. Below is a link to a BBC
short video on Jose Mujica, the former President of Uruguay, who
has a distinctive perspective on the pursuit of continually increasing
consumption. Known as the worlds poorest president, he instead argues:
poor people are those who always want more and more, who never have
enough of anything: www.bbc.com/news/magazine-20243493
BVFD: read the summary and work through the review questions.
Overview
This block starts by discussing supply-side economics. Supply-side policies
aim to improve an economys productive potential. Higher labour input
and increases in labour productivity are important elements of supply-side
economics as are increased flexibility in product or labour markets and
improved competitiveness. Although policies which boost aggregate supply
are desirable, in practice this may be difficult to achieve.
Secondly, this block examines long-term economic growth. Economic
growth is most commonly measured by real GDP or real GDP per capita,
though this measure has weaknesses and other alternative measures are
being referred to more frequently. Even small annual changes in economic
growth can lead to huge changes in living standards in the long term.
Potential output can be increased either by increasing the inputs of land,
labour, capital and raw materials, or by increasing the output obtained
from given input quantities. Technical advances are an important source
of productivity gains, and can be fostered for example through subsidised
research in universities and the provision of patents for companies that
make new discoveries.
The simplest theory of growth, as characterised in the Solow growth
model, has a steady state in which capital, output and labour all grow at
the same rate. Whatever its initial level of capital, the economy converges
on this steady state path. This theory can explain output growth but not
growth in output per worker (productivity growth). Labour augmenting
technical progress allows permanent growth of labour productivity.
Convergence theory argues that countries will converge, both because
capital deepening is easier when capital per worker is lower and because
of catch-up in technology. There have been several examples of this in
recent decades, where developing countries have grown much faster
than developed countries, though not all countries fit into this pattern.
Institutional frameworks impact on the adoption of new technology, which
strongly influences growth rates.
Theories of endogenous growth are built on the assumption of constant
returns to capital. If this assumption holds, the long-run growth rate of
productivity can be influenced by choices about saving and investment,
282
Output y = f(k)
Savings f(k)
E
B
C
k1
k2
k3
284
Appendix 1: Syllabus
Appendix 1: Syllabus
This is a description of the material to be examined, as published in the
Regulations. On registration, students will receive a detailed subject guide
which provides a framework for covering the topics in the syllabus and
directions to the essential reading
Introduction
The Economic Problem: production possibility frontiers, opportunity
cost, the role of the market, positive and normative economics, theory and
models in economics.
Microeconomics
The Theory of Consumer Behaviour: rationality, utility, indifference
curves, utility maximisation, demand functions, substitution and income
effects, substitutes and complements, demand elasticity, consumer surplus
The Theory of the Firm: technology and production functions, returns
to scale, the law of diminishing marginal return, isoqants and isocost lines,
cost functions, profit maximisation, the distinction between the long and
the short run, fixed and variable costs, behaviour of the firm in the long
and in the short run, the firms supply function.
Markets: demand and supply, equilibrium, competitive industry (the
competitive firm, entry and exit, short-run and long-run equilibrium, some
comparative statistics), monopoly (the firm, monopoly and competitive
equilibrium compared), natural monopoly, monopolistic competition
(differentiated products, the firms behaviour, the role of entry), oligopoly
(interdependence, game theory, reaction functions)
Factors Market: demand and supply of labour (utility maximisation
and the supply of labour, profit maximisation and the demand for
labour), monopsony, factors affecting labour market equilibrium (unions,
immigration), returns to factors of production, economic rent, the income
distribution, the Gini coefficient and Lorenz curves..
Coordination and Welfare: General equilibrium, horizontal
and vertical equity, allocative and Pareto efficiency, market failures,
externalities, Coase theorem, government interventions, public goods,
incidence of a tax
Macroeconomics
Aggregation: the problem of aggregation, value added and the NNP=Y
identity, depreciation, the circular flow of income, real and nominal GDP
The Goods Market: actual and potential output, consumption,
investment, aggregate demand, income determination, equilibrium, the
multiplier, consumption and taxation, the government budget, automatic
stabilisers (the financing of government), aggregate demand and
equilibrium (IS), the multiplier and taxation, the role of fiscal policy, the
paradox of thrift, imports and exports, the multiplier in an open economy.
Money and Banking: the role of money, real balances, the liquidity
preference approach and the demand for money (liquid assets),
commercial banks and the supply of money (banks and the various
285
286
Block
Title
Textbook chapter
Introduction
1
1, 2
Microeconomics
2
Elasticity
Consumer choice
The Firm I
The Firm II
7.3 7.9
Perfect competition
8.1 8.4
Pure monopoly
8.5 8.10
10
10
11
Welfare economics
13
12
14; 11.9
Macroeconomics
13
Introduction to macroeconomics
15
14
Aggregate demand
16, 17
15
18, 19
16
20
17
21
18
Inflation
22
19
Unemployment
23
20
24
21
25
22
Business cycles
27
23
28
287