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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN

PAKISTAN: SATELLITE BASED CROP MONITORING SYSTEM


Government of Pakistan

Volume III, Issue 9, Serial No. 33


Prelude:
SUPARCO, the National Space
Agency of Pakistan, has developed
algorithms, techniques and procedures for a fast track release of
reliable and reproducible information
on agriculture. FAO, UN is contributing in improvement of this bulletin
through provision of technical advice. The other organizations collaborating in this endeavor are:
Pakistan Meteorological
Department (PMD)
Provincial Crop Reporting
Services (PCRS)
National Fertilizer Development Center (NFDC) and
Indus River System Authority
(IRSA).

Inside this issue:


Crop Situation August,
2013
Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index
(NDVI): Crop Growth
Profiles at Divisional &
Provincial level
Vegetation Difference
31st August, 2013
Temporal Vegetation
changes
Normalized Difference
Water Index (NDWI)
Agro-met Conditions:
August, 2013
Cumulative Rainfall
August, 2012-13
Minimum-Maximum
Temp: August, 2013
Daily Hydrological
Status at Indus Basin:
August, 2013
Water Reservoirs: Storage/Depletion Dynamics
Irrigation Water Supply
Situation: August, 2013
Fertilizer Situation:
August, 2013
Flood Monitoring, 2013
Field View:
August, 2013
Flood View: August,
2013
Crops Statistics

1-3

1-September-2013

Crop Situation: August, 2013


Summary
During month of August, sugarcane,
cotton and coarse rice in most parts of
the country reached its peak growth
stage. This year peak season vegetation
indices are representing possible high
crop productivity. Monsoon rain
events have caused flooding in river
Indus, Chenab and Sutlej within the
river bed. Flash floods in Nullah Aik
and Degh have been recorded in major
Basmati rice growing areas. Peak kharif
crops season along with the river
flooding is evident from the high and
low NDVI values in SPOT VGT imagery of 31 August 2013. NDWI images of current month show higher
than usual water availability in major
crop growing areas of the country.

This month witnessed above normal


monsoon systems across provinces. In
Punjab, three distinct spells of rains
were observed during 2-4, 6-7 and 117
18 August. In Sindh, two distinct spells
of rains were observed during 3-4 and
8-10 14-15 August while in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, three distinct spells of
rains were observed during 2-3, 6-8
11
and 10-15 July. Balochistan has received rain spells during 2-5 and 8-15
12
August, 2013, but intensity was much
less as compared to Sindh and Punjab.
13-14 The month of August is very crucial
for cotton crop as picking season kicks
15-16 off in most of Sindh and in few areas
of Punjab. Heavy rainfall, floods, mealy
bug and Cotton Curl Leave Virus
(CCLV) attacks in Punjab seems to
17
have marginal effects on yield per acre.
In Sindh, cotton crop looks promising
18
although sporadic issues of insect pest
attack have been reported. The cotton
crop area, yield and production fore19
casted by SUPARCO for the year 2013
-14 are 3512 (000 ha), 653.5 (kg/ha)
20
and 14262.68 (million bales) respectively. This forecast at this stage does
21
not include the flood based crop damages.
22-23
4-6

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 31st August, 2013

ages to the crop. The official spot rate as per Karachi Cotton Association
(KCA) rose from Rs. 6500 to 6,850. During the month of August, in Sindh
and Punjab the price of seed cotton (Kapas /Phutti) remained in the range
of Rs. 2700-3150 per 40 kg. Lint prices ranged from Rs. 6,500 to 7100 per
maund (37.32 Kgs) according to the quality of product. ICE cotton index
(Cotlook A Index) fluctuated more frequently from Rs. 7000 to 7900 per
maund.
Sugarcane crop benefitted from the rains during monsoon 2013. Overall
the sugarcane prospects are promising. The crop area, yield and production forecasted by SUPARCO for the year 2013-14 are 1331.3 (000 ha),
52.6 (tons/ha) and 70 (million tons) respectively. Forecast at this stage
does not include the flood based crop damages
The sowing of IRRI rice was timely completed by end of July in most areas
of the country. However, in basmati rice zone of North East Punjab, late
sowing is still in progress. Rice transplantation in ponded flood water has
been observed in some parts of the zone. Rice crop is affected by Nullah
Degh and Aik either by plants uprooting or silt forced lodging. Rest of the
crop is very promising and expected to have 6.5 million of rice production
this year. The rice crop area, yield and production estimates forecasted by
SUPARCO for the year 2013-14 are 2819 (000 ha), 2312 (kg/ha) and 6517
(million tons) respectively.

As per report of the NFDC, the total nutrient off take during April to
August was 1483.8 thousand tons which is lower by around 1% as compared to last year. Nitrogen off take decreased by 5% while phosphate
increased by 24%. Irrigation water distribution during April to August was
The cotton prices would increase observed as 27.199 MAF in Punjab, 22.648 MAF in Sindh, 0.796 MAF in KP
24-25
slightly in coming month due to dam- and 1.221 MAF in Balochistan. River flows were high during the month of
August. Water storage in Tarbela and Mangla in terms of accumulation of
26

Pakistan Satellite based Crop Monitoring System Bulletin is a joint monthly publication of SUPARCO and FAO, UN.

Page 2

PAK-SCMS BULLETIN

at the end of July was around 2.972 MAF. Water accumulation has reached about 3.084 MAF at the end of August. Total water accumulation
in both reservoirs is around 6.056 MAF. Water level in Tarbela has reached its maximum level of 1550 feet amsl during mid-August while in
Mangla it was recorded as 1237 Feet amsl at the end of August.

Methodology Used for crop Forecasting


The data on wheat and spring maize crops are based on analysis of satellite imagery of 5 m panchromatic and 10 m multispectral modes acquired from SPOT constellation. Crops forecast for Kharif during May and June is based on trend lines. The final estimates will be based on
receipt of high resolution satellite data to assure high confidence level with degree of error of around 2.5 percent. The schedule for release
of statistics of Kharif crops 2013-14 is as follows:

Month

Crops

May

Sugarcane

7.5

June

Cotton

7.5

August

Sugarcane, Cotton

Decadal

Error (%)

5.0

Rice and Maize

September

Rice, Maize

October

All above crops

7.5

5.0
2.5

Kharif Crops Situation:


The perceptible features of Kharif season 2013 mainly included (a) Strong heat wave extending during early season of cotton crop (b) Good
pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall in Punjab with less in Sindh and Balochistan provinces (c) Water shortage may have marginally reduced
sown area in major cotton growing districts of Sindh (d) Sugarcane 2013-14 has better prospects in term of area and growing conditions in
both Punjab and Sindh and (e) Rice transplantation in Punjab & Sindh is almost complete (f) river floods in Indus, Chenab and Sutlej mainly
affecting Katcho area of Punjab & Sindh and (g) flash floods in Nullah Degh and Aik in basmati rice growing tract of Punjab . Economic Survey
of Pakistan for year 2012-13 has been released by Ministry of Finance (MoF). The Agriculture sector is set to account for over 21.4 percent of
GDP. The four major crops wheat (2.2%), maize (0.5%), rice (0.6%), cotton (1.5%) and sugarcane (0.7%) account for 5.4 percent on average of
GDP. Among them, the three major crops cotton, rice and sugarcane are Kharif crops.

Cotton
The month of August is very crucial for cotton crop as picking season starts to kick off in most of Sindh and in some parts of Punjab. Heavy
rainfall, flooding, mealy bug and Cotton Curl Leave Virus (CCLV) attacks in Punjab have marginally affected the yield per acre. The impacts of
torrential rains on acreage have been observed in Southern parts of Punjab especially in Rajanpur, D.G khan and Muzaffargarh. In Sindh, most
of cotton is promising although sporadic issues of insect pest have been reported. However, the flowering of cotton plants in September when
rains subside would bring some improvement and exact determination of the crop size would then be possible. The cotton crop area, yield
and production forecast by SUPARCO for the year 2013-14 are 3512 (000 ha), 653.5 (kg/ha) and 14262.68 (Million bales) respectively.
There have been medium amount of rains in the cotton growing districts of Punjab and Sindh. Okara, Sahiwal, Mianwali, Faisalabad and Dera
Gazi Khan districts have received above average rains in August. Rest of other districts received positive cotton productive rainfall i.e. Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Sanghar etc.
The cotton prices will flare up slightly in the coming month due to possible damages to the crop. The official spot rate as per Karachi Cotton
Association (KCA) rose from Rs. 6500 to 6850. During the month of August, in Sindh and Punjab the price of seed cotton (Kapas /Phutti)
remained in the range of Rs. 2700-3150 per 40 kg. Lint prices ranged from Rs. 6,500 to 7100 per maund (37.32 Kgs) according to the quality of
product.
ICE cotton index (Cotlook A Index) fluctuated frequently from Rs. 7000 to 7900 per maund. ICE cotton rallied to the highest level since mid
-June (graph) after a lowered US and global output expectations.

Volume III, Issue 9, Serial No 33

Page 3

Sugarcane
Sugarcane is a very important cash crop of Pakistan. It is mainly cultivated in central & southern Punjab and along left bank of Indus River in
Sindh. In Sindh, the sugarcane crop is mostly sown during September and the length of the growing cycle is around 12-14 months. Whereas in
Punjab, it is sown during February and the growing cycle is shorter by two months to that of Sindh. Some parts of central Punjab, especially in
Sargodha and surrounding districts, it is reported that crop is infested by red rot disease causing economic losses to the cane farmers. Sugar
cane crop benefitted from the rains during monsoon 2013. Sugarcane grown closer or inside the active river flood plains of Indus basin may
have minor impacts on acreage as well as crops sugar productivity. Overall prospects of sugarcane are promising.
There have been frequent rains in the sugarcane growing belt of Central & Southern Punjab, Sindh and KP districts. Districts of Faisalabad, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Mandi Bahauddin, Mianwali and Sargodha have received enough rainfall favorable for its growth. Most of the districts in
Sindh have received less monsoon rains during August and the resulting decrease of 25% in canal irrigation will affect the yield. The support
price of sugarcane for the current year has not been yet announced however the price for the last year was Rs. 172.
The crop area, yield and production forecast by SUPARCO for the year 2013-14 are 1331.3 (000 ha), 52.6 (tons/ha) and 70 (Million tons) respectively.

Rice
Third important kharif crop is rice, cultivated in all the four provinces of Pakistan. The best Basmati rice is limited to the North Eastern parts of
Punjab. The Coarse varieties of rice are sown at different acreage levels in Punjab, right bank districts of Sindh (Badin and Thatta). In Balochistan
the major Coarse rice areas are Nasirabad and Jaffarabad. Coarse rice is also grown in different parts of KP, mainly Swat, Mansehra, Upper &
Lower Dir and D.I.Khan.
The sowing of IRRI rice was timely completed by end of July in most of the areas of the country. However, in basmati rice zone of central Punjab i.e., Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Sheikhupura, Nankana Sahib, Sialkot, Narowal, Mandi Baha uddin and Gujarat districts, late sowing is still in progress. Transplantation in ponded flood water has been observed in some parts of zone. Rice crop is affected by Nullah Degh and Aik either by
plants uprooting or silt forced lodging. Rest of the crop is promising and expected to have 6.5 million tons of rice production in this year.
There have been heavy rains in the basmati growing region in Punjab and lesser rains in Sindh, Balochistan and KP districts. Districts of Sialkot,
Gujranwala and Lahore have received well above average cumulative rainfall of August, ranging from 300600mm. Most of the districts in Sindh,
Balochistan and KP have received less rainfall.
The crop area, yield and production first forecast by SUPARCO for the year 2013-14 are 2819.3 (000 ha), 2312 (kg/ha) and 6517.5 (000 tons)
respectively.

Volume III, Issue 9, Serial No 33

Page 4

Page

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Divisional Level
SUPARCO is acquiring MODIS 250 m resolution data on daily basis and SPOT VGT 1000 m resolution data on 10 daily basis to assess crop
growth. SPOT-5 high resolution data are being acquired during each cropping season to assess land surface changes in image classification. The
SPOT VGT based graphs depicting temporal changes for various regions are as follows:

Volume III, Issue 9, Serial No 33

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Divisional Level

Page 5

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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Provincial level

Volume III, Issue 9, Serial No 33

Page 7

Vegetation Change: August 2013 vs. July 2013 (Crop Growth)

Vegetation Change: August 2013 vs. August 2012

Satellite Imagery: SPOT VGT 1000m

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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN

Sowing/Land preparation

Active Growth

Maturity

Harvesting

Satellite Imagery: MODIS 250m

Temporal Change: Kallar Tract, Punjab

Flood
Inundation

Temporal Change: Sahiwal Division, Punjab

Rice

Volume III, Issue 9, Serial No 33


Sowing/Land preparation

Active Growth

Temporal Change: Larkana Division, Sindh

Temporal Change: Indus delta, Sindh

Temporal Change: Southern Punjab

Page 9
Maturity

Harvesting

Satellite Imagery: MODIS 250m

Page 10
Sowing/Land preparation

PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Active Growth

Maturity

Temporal Change: Sindh

Temporal Change: Pat Feeder Area of Balochistan

Harvesting

Satellite Imagery: MODIS 250m

Volume III, Issue 9, Serial No 33

Page 11

Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI)


Satellite based Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) is an effective index to identify the spatial variability of water on earth surface
including agriculture, forest, desert, mountains etc.
The NDWI images shown here to give the water index status of agricultural cropped area. Monthly difference image between last month (July)
and current conditions (August) shows the change in NDWI. NDWI images of current month show the high water indication in major crops
growing areas of Pakistan as crops are at their peak vegetation stage.

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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN

Agro-Met Conditions: August (2012 and 2013)


The agro met conditions during August were as follows:
a) Rainfall: Wide spread spells of rains were observed during August, 2013. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit/Baltistan and Azad Kashmir received
slightly higher rainfall than Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan. The rainfall at various stations is given on next page.
b) Temperature: Both maximum and minimum temperature remained normal during August, 2013 and almost same as during last two years.

Monthly Cumulative Precipitation:


August 2013

August 2012

Disputed Territory

Disputed Territory

Monthly Mean (Max & Min) Temperatures: August, 2013

Mean Max Temperature

Mean Min Temperature

Disputed Territory

Disputed Territory

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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN

Cumulative Rainfall (mm) of August (2012 and 2013)

STATIONS
BAHAWALNAGAR
BAHAWALPUR CITY
BAHAWALPUR A/P
BHAKKAR
CHAKWAL
D.G.KHAN
FAISALABAD
ISLAMABAD A/P
ISLAMABAD ZP
JHANG
JOHARABAD
JHELUM
KHANPUR
LAHORE
LAHORE

PUNJAB
Aug-12
STATIONS
35.1
MANDI-BAHU-DIN
69.3
MIANWALI
23.1
MULTAN
66
MANGLA
158.1
MURREE
7.4
NOORPUR THAL
19.3
OKARA
410.3
RAHIM YAR KHAN
283.5
GUJRANWALA CANTT
4
SAHIWAL
39.3
SARGODHA
267.2
SHORKOT

Aug-13
117.1
31.7
116.1
44
108
152.1
159.2
670.3
567.3
55
33
231.3
1.4
513.2
353.7

A/P
PBO

43
175.4
197.6

Aug-13
139.3
150.1
38
256.1
428.1
223
218.1
0.5
468.1
156.1
42.3
7.3

Aug-12
404.2
174.6
12.4
304.3
469
81
48
19.3
238.5
135
13.1
71.1

SIALKOT CANTT
SIALKOT A/P
T.T. SINGH

670.3
367.8
23.4

192.2
259.4
20.2

STATIONS
BALAKOT
BANNU
CHERAT
CHITRAL
D.I.KHAN
DIR
LOWER DIR
DROSH
KAKUL
KALAM
KOHAT
MALAM JABBA
MIRKHANI
PARACHINAR
PESHAWAR A/P
PESHAWAR CITY
RISALPUR
SAIDU SHARIF

KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA
Aug-13
307.2
148
182
31
6.2
198
205
54
422
96
107.1
357
24
237
63.4
77.2
89.2
314.9

Aug-12
332.4
99.3
105.1
29
134.2
64
150
20
291.1
41
68.1
145
3
221
27.3
92.5
54.2
78.3

SINDH
STATIONS
BADIN

Aug-13
70.2

Aug-12
31.1

CHHOR

127

29.1

HYDERABAD

27

1.1

JACOBABAD

295

0.1

106.6
91

8.3
0.3

KARACHI AIRPORT
LARKANA
MITHI

20

25

SHAHHED BENAZIRABAD

15

14.1

PADIDAN

37.1

0.1

ROHRI
SUKKUR

85.1
60.1

0.1
2

MOIN-JO-DARO

66

THATTA

104

34

DADU
MIRPUR KHAS

9
52

0
20

STATIONS
BARKHAN
DALBANDIN
GAWADAR
JIWANI
KALAT
KHUZDAR
LASBELA
NOKKUNDI
PANJGUR
PASNI
QUETTA
SAMUNGLI
SIBBI
TURBAT
ORMARA
ZHOB

BALOCHISTAN
Aug-13
47.3
2
13
13
36
185
49.3
0
16
59
24
14.1
66.1
115
0
38

Aug-12
30.2
0
0
0
0
51
0
0
0
0
0
0
106
0
0
57

GB/ AJK
STATIONS

Aug-13

Aug-12

ASTORE

37.3

18.6

BUNJI

40.3

11.1

CHILAS

24.7

17.2

GARHI DOPATTA

326

136

GILGIT

50.4

11.9

GUPIS

48

43

KOTLI

176.1

315

MUZAFFARABAD

307.1

482.4

RAWALAKOT

297.3

123.2

HUNZA

38.3

21.7

PATTAN

76

15.1

SKARDU

25.5

10.6

Volume III, Issue 9, Serial No 33

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Page 15

Minimum Temperature : August, 2013


The range of minimum temperature (0C ) during August, 2013 were as follows:

PAK-SCMS BULLETIN

Volume III, Issue 9, Serial No 33

Maximum Temperature : August, 2013


The range of maximum temperature (0C ) during August, 2013 were as follows:

Page 16

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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN

Daily Hydrological Status at Indus Basin: August, 2013


SUPARCO is closely monitoring hydrological status of main rivers and reservoirs. At the end of August, the water level at Tarbela was 1550.00
feet and at Mangla 1236.15 feet above mean sea level (amsl).

Reservoir
Tarbela
Mangla

1-Aug
2013
2012
1532.00
1466.09
1209.80

1156.55

Reservoir Level (feet) above mean sea Level on the date of


11-Aug
21-Aug
30-Aug
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
1542.00 1495.00
1550.00 1502.30 1550.00 1535.88
1216.00

1165.50

1228.80

1175.30

The inflows at RIM stations at Indus and other rivers are as follows:

August 2013: Daily River Water Inflow (000 cusecs)


Day

Indus at
Tarbela

Indus at Indus at
Chashma Taunsa

1
2
4
5
6
7
11
12
13
15
16
19
20
21
22
23
25
26
27
28
29
30

262.0
284.3
324.0
327.1
313.1
300.3
310.8
312.9
308.1
365.8
303.2
187.2
200.4
212.8
214.9
209.7
209.8
214.4
217.9
213.8
214.3
212.6

273.0
303.0
432.1
470.5
476.0
466.7
410.4
414.1
437.6
684.7
525.6
304.0
244.8
275.5
289.5
296.7
275.1
251.5
263.0
260.0
270.9
260.3

222.0
225.9
266.1
316.4
387.5
398.0
352.6
355.1
342.6
372.5
425.2
425.2
270.2
180.9
229.6
252.0
248.7
242.7
214.8
231.0
231.0
225.7

28.2
44.4
36.1
27.3
30.8
43.1
37.8
27.3
29.1
109.2
67.0
50.3
88.7
70.1
55.1
49.0
39.3
39.3
35.4
35.4
41.3
39.3

83.2
110.7
87.9
90.1
99.8
98.3
98.0
97.4
96.8
243.9
216.4
71.2
75.3
66.7
72.8
67.2
62.3
63.1
64.2
65.5
70.4
62.6

61.2
58.6
80.6
106.1
83.6
69.9
59.9
61.2
58.1
99.2
101.8
52.5
46.5
49.3
44.6
40.4
33.8
34.2
32.8
30.9
30.4
30.7

Condition

No Flood

Low Flood

No Flood

No Flood

No Flood

No Flood

Source: Punjab Irrigation Department, Lahore

Jhelum at Chenab at Kabul at


Mangla
Marala Nowshera

1236.15

1180.40

Full Capacity
1550.00
1242.00

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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN

Water Reservoirs: Storage/Depletion Dynamics


Water Storage/Depletion patterns in Tarbela and Mangla dams are regulated through well-established dams operations procedures involving
inflows forecasting system, inflows & outflows gauging system. The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) manages irrigation water regulation
mechanism to meet crops water requirements of all the provinces.
Monsoon rainfall and summer season snow/glaciers melting are the major sources of water in reservoirs and crops irrigation through canals
system. Most of rainfall and melting season span is from May to September annually. This is a major limiting factor for water supply during next
Rabi season (wheat). Three distinctive peaks in accumulation were observed in both reservoirs on 4th July, 12th July and 31st July respectively.
Accumulation of water at the end of July was around 2.972 MAF.

Month of August represents the monsoon season continuity with frequent rains in river/reservoirs catchments areas. Tarbela reached its maximum water storage capacity on 20th August at 1550 feet level above mean sea level. Water accumulation reached to about 3.084 MAF at the
end of the month. Total water accumulation in both reservoirs is around 6.056 MAF.

Volume III, Issue 9, Serial No 33

Page 19

Irrigation Water Supply Situation: August, 2013


During Kharif (April-Aug), 2013 the irrigation water supply from canal head works was 51.864 MAF compared to 49.893 MAF of last year for
same time period, up by 1.97 MAF. The province wise distribution in Punjab was 27.199 MAF, Sindh 22.648 MAF, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 0.796
MAF and Balochistan 1.221 MAF. By August, 2013 supply was lower by 24.05 percent in Punjab and 25.94 percent in Sindh 14.22 percent in KP
and 60.0 percent in Balochistan compared to last year.
Punjab
Jhelum-

Indus

Total

Sindh

KP

Balochistan

Total

Chenab
Month

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Total

Year

Million Acre Feet

2013

2.093

1.357

3.449

2.198

0.115

0.000

5.762

2012

1.817

1.202

3.019

1.426

0.133

0.000

4.578

Change

0.28

0.15

0.43

0.77

-0.02

0.00

1.18

% change

15.17

12.87

14.26

54.10

-13.43

0.00

25.87

2013

2.746

2.427

5.173

2.249

0.171

0.073

7.666
6.165

2012

1.842

1.743

3.585

2.304

0.183

0.093

Change

0.90

0.68

1.59

-0.06

-0.01

-0.02

1.50

% change

49.08

39.26

44.31

-2.40

-6.51

-21.44

24.35

2013

3.142

3.352

6.494

4.919

0.175

0.415

12.002

2012

2.672

2.315

4.987

3.582

0.196

0.339

9.104

Change

0.47

1.04

1.51

1.34

-0.02

0.08

2.90

% change

17.59

44.82

30.23

37.32

-11.11

22.22

31.83

2013

3.370

3.561

6.931

7.657

0.184

0.524

15.296

2012

3.436

3.464

6.900

7.312

0.191

0.564

14.967
0.33

Change

-0.07

0.10

0.03

0.34

-0.01

-0.04

% change

-1.93

2.81

0.45

4.71

-3.33

-7.14

2.19

2013

2.607

2.545

5.152

5.626

0.151

0.209

11.138

2012

3.343

3.441

6.783

7.597

0.176

0.523

15.079

Change

-0.74

-0.90

-1.63

-1.97

-0.02

-0.31

-3.94

% change

-22.02

-26.03

-24.05

-25.94 -14.22

-60.00

-26.14

2013

13.957

13.242

27.199 22.648

0.796

1.221

51.864

25.274 22.222

2012

13.109

12.164

0.878

1.519

49.893

Change

0.85

1.08

1.93

0.43

-0.08

-0.30

1.97

% change

6.46

8.86

7.62

1.92

-9.44

-19.65

3.95

Source: Indus River System Authority (IRSA)

Volume III, Issue 9, Serial No 33

Page 20

Fertilizer Situation: August, 2013


Total nutrient offtake during Kharif (April-July) 2013 was about 1184.3 thousand tons. This decrease was at 8.29 percent over same time frame
of Kharif 2012. Nitorgen offtake decreased by 11.82 percent with increase of 13.82 and 9.16 percent in Phosphate and Potash offtake respectively. Urea offtake decreased by 8.3 percent while DAP offtake increased by 28.2 percent during Kharif (April-July) 2013 over the same period
of last year.
Total available urea in July 2013 was about 619 thousand tons that comprised of 164 thousand tons of opening inventory, 54 thousand tons of
imported supply and 401 thousand tons of domestic production. Total offtake of urea was about 466 thousand tons leaving behind 152 thousand tons of opening inventory for August 2013. Opening inventory of 229 thousand tons of DAP with 69 thousand tons of domestic production made the total availability of around 298 thousand tons. DAP offtake was 81 thousand tons thus leaving behind the balance of 217 thousand tones for
August, 2013.

Fertilizer Offtake
2013-14
Month
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Sub Total
Aug*
Total

2012-13

Nitrogen

Phosphate

Potash

165.9
262.7
308.2
244.2
981.0
240.5
1221.5

26.9
46.2
78.9
45.6
197.6
57.6
255.2

0.8
1.2
2.2
1.5
5.7
1.4
7.1

Total
Nitrogen
(000 tons)
193.6
169.8
310.1
197.3
389.3
533.3
291.3
212.1
1184.3
1112.5
299.5
173.7
1483.8
1286.2

% Change

Phosphate

Potash

Total

35.8
21.7
57.7
58.4
173.6
32.2
205.8

1.4
1.6
1.2
1.0
5.2
0.5
5.7

207.1
220.6
592.2
271.5
1291.4
206.4
1497.8

* Provisional values are averages from the previous years.


The fertilizer statistics and prices are depicted in the graphics below:

Nitrogen
-2.30
33.15
-42.21
15.13
-11.82
38.46
-5.03

Phosphate
-24.85
112.90
36.74
-21.92
13.82
78.88
24.00

Potash
-43.48
-25.00
83.33
51.52
9.16
180.00
24.05

Total
-6.49
40.57
-34.26
7.30
-8.29
45.11
-0.93

Source: NFDC

Volume III, Issue 9, Serial No 33

Page 21

Flood Monitoring, 2013


SUPARCO is closely monitoring rivers and barrages inflow with respect to flood occurrence. River flows started rising from end May with an
increase in glacier melting and wide spread spells of pre-monsoon system over catchment areas. This year country also received higher monsoon rains in wide spread spells in June, July and August as compared to same months of last two years. Peak flows during mid of August 2013
were around 680 to 685 thousand cusec at Chashma in Indus river. Water flows in other rivers and tributaries were also high than previous
year.

Comparison of 15 August 2013 and 2012 given below:

Source: IRSA

Page 22

Volume III, Issue 9, Serial No 33

Field View: August, 2013


Cotton Crop Condition, Muzaffargarh

Rice after Flood , Chiniot

Cotton Crop Condition, Multan

Cotton Crop Condition, D.G. Khan

Rice and Sugarcane Condition, Layyah

Maize Crop, Chiniot

Sugarcane after Flood, Hafizabad

Cotton Crop Condition, Rajanpur

Rice Condition at Bund Bosan, Multan

Rice and Sugarcane Crop in Kot Addu

Rice at grain formation, Chiniot

Mango Orchard, Multan

Volume III, Issue 9, Serial No 33

Page 23

Field View: August, 2013


Basmati Rice Transplanted, Sialkot

Fertilizer Application in Rice, Gujranwala

Field for Potato Sowing, Depalpur

Cotton Crop Condition, Okara

Irrigation to Rice, Sheikhupura

Sugarcane Condition, Okara

Maize Crop at Harvesting Stage, Okara

Rice at Peak Growth Stage, Gujranwala

Rice Harvesting, Okara

Rice Re-transplantation in Progress, Sialkot

Picked Cotton, Depalpur

Rice Nursery, Pasrur

PAK-SCMS BULLETIN

Page 24

Flood Situation in Punjab: August, 2013


Flood at Bund Bosan, Multan

Sugarcan in Flood water, Chiniot

Flood Level, Muzaffargarh

Cotton Damage in Flood, Jampur

Hill Torrents water flow, Rajanpur

Flood Level, Multan

Nullah Aik Flood in urban area, Sialkot

Flood Volume in Nullah Aik

Flood inundation Nullah Degh, Sheikhupura

Flood Relief Camp, Punjab Govt, Kasur

Rice Damage by Nullah Degh, Pasroor

Flood Uprooted Rice, Gujranwala

PAK-SCMS BULLETIN

Page 25

Flood Situation in Sindh: August, 2013


Flood Situation, Naushahro Feroze

Flood Level, Sukkar

Flood Situation in Shahdad Kot

Flood Level, Shahdad Kot

Flood Situation in Sukkar

Flood Level, Naushahro Feroze

Flood Level, Matiari

River Situation in Naushahro Feroze

Flood Survey, Matiari

Flood Crop Damage, Sukkar

Flood Crop Damage, Shahdad Kot

Flood at Matiari

PAK-SCMS BULLETIN

Page 26

Crop Statistics:
Kharif Crops 2013-14
The current forecast for Sugarcane, Cotton and Rice production and yield is based on trend line and the area is
derived from hyper-temporal images of Terra/Aqua satellites data. The crop forecasts are as follows:
a) Sugarcane Forecast 2013-14

Provinces
Punjab
Sindh
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Pakistan

Sugarcane 2013-14: Second Forecast*


Area
Yield
Production
000 ha
tons per ha
Million tons
914.7
53.6
49.03
318.1
52.15
16.59
98.5
44.5
4.38
1331.3
52.6
70.00

Error %

5.0

b) Cotton Forecast 2013-14

Provinces
Punjab
Sindh
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Pakistan

Cotton 2013-14: Second Forecast*


Area
Yield
Production
000 ha
kg/ha
000 bales
2803.1
669
11038
657.6
832.5
3220.3
36
485
103
3496.7
698
14361.3

Error %

5.0

c) Rice Forecast 2013-14

Provinces
Punjab
Sindh
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Pakistan

Area
000 ha
1817.3
637.7
236.8
127.5
2819.3

Rice 2013-14: First Forecast*


Yield
Production
kg per ha
000 tons
1942
3530.1
3078
1962.9
3234
765.9
2028
258.6
2312
6517.5

* Note: Does not include the flood based crop damages.

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission


SPARC, Islamabad, Main Islamabad Highway 44000, Islamabad, Pakistan
Tel.: (+92) 51 4611792
Fax: (+92) 51 4611796
E-mail: sgs@ suparco.net.pk
http://www.suparco.gov.pk

Error %

7.5

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