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1-3
1-September-2013
ages to the crop. The official spot rate as per Karachi Cotton Association
(KCA) rose from Rs. 6500 to 6,850. During the month of August, in Sindh
and Punjab the price of seed cotton (Kapas /Phutti) remained in the range
of Rs. 2700-3150 per 40 kg. Lint prices ranged from Rs. 6,500 to 7100 per
maund (37.32 Kgs) according to the quality of product. ICE cotton index
(Cotlook A Index) fluctuated more frequently from Rs. 7000 to 7900 per
maund.
Sugarcane crop benefitted from the rains during monsoon 2013. Overall
the sugarcane prospects are promising. The crop area, yield and production forecasted by SUPARCO for the year 2013-14 are 1331.3 (000 ha),
52.6 (tons/ha) and 70 (million tons) respectively. Forecast at this stage
does not include the flood based crop damages
The sowing of IRRI rice was timely completed by end of July in most areas
of the country. However, in basmati rice zone of North East Punjab, late
sowing is still in progress. Rice transplantation in ponded flood water has
been observed in some parts of the zone. Rice crop is affected by Nullah
Degh and Aik either by plants uprooting or silt forced lodging. Rest of the
crop is very promising and expected to have 6.5 million of rice production
this year. The rice crop area, yield and production estimates forecasted by
SUPARCO for the year 2013-14 are 2819 (000 ha), 2312 (kg/ha) and 6517
(million tons) respectively.
As per report of the NFDC, the total nutrient off take during April to
August was 1483.8 thousand tons which is lower by around 1% as compared to last year. Nitrogen off take decreased by 5% while phosphate
increased by 24%. Irrigation water distribution during April to August was
The cotton prices would increase observed as 27.199 MAF in Punjab, 22.648 MAF in Sindh, 0.796 MAF in KP
24-25
slightly in coming month due to dam- and 1.221 MAF in Balochistan. River flows were high during the month of
August. Water storage in Tarbela and Mangla in terms of accumulation of
26
Pakistan Satellite based Crop Monitoring System Bulletin is a joint monthly publication of SUPARCO and FAO, UN.
Page 2
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
at the end of July was around 2.972 MAF. Water accumulation has reached about 3.084 MAF at the end of August. Total water accumulation
in both reservoirs is around 6.056 MAF. Water level in Tarbela has reached its maximum level of 1550 feet amsl during mid-August while in
Mangla it was recorded as 1237 Feet amsl at the end of August.
Month
Crops
May
Sugarcane
7.5
June
Cotton
7.5
August
Sugarcane, Cotton
Decadal
Error (%)
5.0
September
Rice, Maize
October
7.5
5.0
2.5
Cotton
The month of August is very crucial for cotton crop as picking season starts to kick off in most of Sindh and in some parts of Punjab. Heavy
rainfall, flooding, mealy bug and Cotton Curl Leave Virus (CCLV) attacks in Punjab have marginally affected the yield per acre. The impacts of
torrential rains on acreage have been observed in Southern parts of Punjab especially in Rajanpur, D.G khan and Muzaffargarh. In Sindh, most
of cotton is promising although sporadic issues of insect pest have been reported. However, the flowering of cotton plants in September when
rains subside would bring some improvement and exact determination of the crop size would then be possible. The cotton crop area, yield
and production forecast by SUPARCO for the year 2013-14 are 3512 (000 ha), 653.5 (kg/ha) and 14262.68 (Million bales) respectively.
There have been medium amount of rains in the cotton growing districts of Punjab and Sindh. Okara, Sahiwal, Mianwali, Faisalabad and Dera
Gazi Khan districts have received above average rains in August. Rest of other districts received positive cotton productive rainfall i.e. Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Sanghar etc.
The cotton prices will flare up slightly in the coming month due to possible damages to the crop. The official spot rate as per Karachi Cotton
Association (KCA) rose from Rs. 6500 to 6850. During the month of August, in Sindh and Punjab the price of seed cotton (Kapas /Phutti)
remained in the range of Rs. 2700-3150 per 40 kg. Lint prices ranged from Rs. 6,500 to 7100 per maund (37.32 Kgs) according to the quality of
product.
ICE cotton index (Cotlook A Index) fluctuated frequently from Rs. 7000 to 7900 per maund. ICE cotton rallied to the highest level since mid
-June (graph) after a lowered US and global output expectations.
Page 3
Sugarcane
Sugarcane is a very important cash crop of Pakistan. It is mainly cultivated in central & southern Punjab and along left bank of Indus River in
Sindh. In Sindh, the sugarcane crop is mostly sown during September and the length of the growing cycle is around 12-14 months. Whereas in
Punjab, it is sown during February and the growing cycle is shorter by two months to that of Sindh. Some parts of central Punjab, especially in
Sargodha and surrounding districts, it is reported that crop is infested by red rot disease causing economic losses to the cane farmers. Sugar
cane crop benefitted from the rains during monsoon 2013. Sugarcane grown closer or inside the active river flood plains of Indus basin may
have minor impacts on acreage as well as crops sugar productivity. Overall prospects of sugarcane are promising.
There have been frequent rains in the sugarcane growing belt of Central & Southern Punjab, Sindh and KP districts. Districts of Faisalabad, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Mandi Bahauddin, Mianwali and Sargodha have received enough rainfall favorable for its growth. Most of the districts in
Sindh have received less monsoon rains during August and the resulting decrease of 25% in canal irrigation will affect the yield. The support
price of sugarcane for the current year has not been yet announced however the price for the last year was Rs. 172.
The crop area, yield and production forecast by SUPARCO for the year 2013-14 are 1331.3 (000 ha), 52.6 (tons/ha) and 70 (Million tons) respectively.
Rice
Third important kharif crop is rice, cultivated in all the four provinces of Pakistan. The best Basmati rice is limited to the North Eastern parts of
Punjab. The Coarse varieties of rice are sown at different acreage levels in Punjab, right bank districts of Sindh (Badin and Thatta). In Balochistan
the major Coarse rice areas are Nasirabad and Jaffarabad. Coarse rice is also grown in different parts of KP, mainly Swat, Mansehra, Upper &
Lower Dir and D.I.Khan.
The sowing of IRRI rice was timely completed by end of July in most of the areas of the country. However, in basmati rice zone of central Punjab i.e., Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Sheikhupura, Nankana Sahib, Sialkot, Narowal, Mandi Baha uddin and Gujarat districts, late sowing is still in progress. Transplantation in ponded flood water has been observed in some parts of zone. Rice crop is affected by Nullah Degh and Aik either by
plants uprooting or silt forced lodging. Rest of the crop is promising and expected to have 6.5 million tons of rice production in this year.
There have been heavy rains in the basmati growing region in Punjab and lesser rains in Sindh, Balochistan and KP districts. Districts of Sialkot,
Gujranwala and Lahore have received well above average cumulative rainfall of August, ranging from 300600mm. Most of the districts in Sindh,
Balochistan and KP have received less rainfall.
The crop area, yield and production first forecast by SUPARCO for the year 2013-14 are 2819.3 (000 ha), 2312 (kg/ha) and 6517.5 (000 tons)
respectively.
Page 4
Page
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Divisional Level
SUPARCO is acquiring MODIS 250 m resolution data on daily basis and SPOT VGT 1000 m resolution data on 10 daily basis to assess crop
growth. SPOT-5 high resolution data are being acquired during each cropping season to assess land surface changes in image classification. The
SPOT VGT based graphs depicting temporal changes for various regions are as follows:
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Divisional Level
Page 5
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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Provincial level
Page 7
Page 8
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Sowing/Land preparation
Active Growth
Maturity
Harvesting
Flood
Inundation
Rice
Active Growth
Page 9
Maturity
Harvesting
Page 10
Sowing/Land preparation
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Active Growth
Maturity
Harvesting
Page 11
Page 12
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
August 2012
Disputed Territory
Disputed Territory
Disputed Territory
Disputed Territory
Page 13
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
STATIONS
BAHAWALNAGAR
BAHAWALPUR CITY
BAHAWALPUR A/P
BHAKKAR
CHAKWAL
D.G.KHAN
FAISALABAD
ISLAMABAD A/P
ISLAMABAD ZP
JHANG
JOHARABAD
JHELUM
KHANPUR
LAHORE
LAHORE
PUNJAB
Aug-12
STATIONS
35.1
MANDI-BAHU-DIN
69.3
MIANWALI
23.1
MULTAN
66
MANGLA
158.1
MURREE
7.4
NOORPUR THAL
19.3
OKARA
410.3
RAHIM YAR KHAN
283.5
GUJRANWALA CANTT
4
SAHIWAL
39.3
SARGODHA
267.2
SHORKOT
Aug-13
117.1
31.7
116.1
44
108
152.1
159.2
670.3
567.3
55
33
231.3
1.4
513.2
353.7
A/P
PBO
43
175.4
197.6
Aug-13
139.3
150.1
38
256.1
428.1
223
218.1
0.5
468.1
156.1
42.3
7.3
Aug-12
404.2
174.6
12.4
304.3
469
81
48
19.3
238.5
135
13.1
71.1
SIALKOT CANTT
SIALKOT A/P
T.T. SINGH
670.3
367.8
23.4
192.2
259.4
20.2
STATIONS
BALAKOT
BANNU
CHERAT
CHITRAL
D.I.KHAN
DIR
LOWER DIR
DROSH
KAKUL
KALAM
KOHAT
MALAM JABBA
MIRKHANI
PARACHINAR
PESHAWAR A/P
PESHAWAR CITY
RISALPUR
SAIDU SHARIF
KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA
Aug-13
307.2
148
182
31
6.2
198
205
54
422
96
107.1
357
24
237
63.4
77.2
89.2
314.9
Aug-12
332.4
99.3
105.1
29
134.2
64
150
20
291.1
41
68.1
145
3
221
27.3
92.5
54.2
78.3
SINDH
STATIONS
BADIN
Aug-13
70.2
Aug-12
31.1
CHHOR
127
29.1
HYDERABAD
27
1.1
JACOBABAD
295
0.1
106.6
91
8.3
0.3
KARACHI AIRPORT
LARKANA
MITHI
20
25
SHAHHED BENAZIRABAD
15
14.1
PADIDAN
37.1
0.1
ROHRI
SUKKUR
85.1
60.1
0.1
2
MOIN-JO-DARO
66
THATTA
104
34
DADU
MIRPUR KHAS
9
52
0
20
STATIONS
BARKHAN
DALBANDIN
GAWADAR
JIWANI
KALAT
KHUZDAR
LASBELA
NOKKUNDI
PANJGUR
PASNI
QUETTA
SAMUNGLI
SIBBI
TURBAT
ORMARA
ZHOB
BALOCHISTAN
Aug-13
47.3
2
13
13
36
185
49.3
0
16
59
24
14.1
66.1
115
0
38
Aug-12
30.2
0
0
0
0
51
0
0
0
0
0
0
106
0
0
57
GB/ AJK
STATIONS
Aug-13
Aug-12
ASTORE
37.3
18.6
BUNJI
40.3
11.1
CHILAS
24.7
17.2
GARHI DOPATTA
326
136
GILGIT
50.4
11.9
GUPIS
48
43
KOTLI
176.1
315
MUZAFFARABAD
307.1
482.4
RAWALAKOT
297.3
123.2
HUNZA
38.3
21.7
PATTAN
76
15.1
SKARDU
25.5
10.6
Page 14
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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Reservoir
Tarbela
Mangla
1-Aug
2013
2012
1532.00
1466.09
1209.80
1156.55
1165.50
1228.80
1175.30
The inflows at RIM stations at Indus and other rivers are as follows:
Indus at
Tarbela
Indus at Indus at
Chashma Taunsa
1
2
4
5
6
7
11
12
13
15
16
19
20
21
22
23
25
26
27
28
29
30
262.0
284.3
324.0
327.1
313.1
300.3
310.8
312.9
308.1
365.8
303.2
187.2
200.4
212.8
214.9
209.7
209.8
214.4
217.9
213.8
214.3
212.6
273.0
303.0
432.1
470.5
476.0
466.7
410.4
414.1
437.6
684.7
525.6
304.0
244.8
275.5
289.5
296.7
275.1
251.5
263.0
260.0
270.9
260.3
222.0
225.9
266.1
316.4
387.5
398.0
352.6
355.1
342.6
372.5
425.2
425.2
270.2
180.9
229.6
252.0
248.7
242.7
214.8
231.0
231.0
225.7
28.2
44.4
36.1
27.3
30.8
43.1
37.8
27.3
29.1
109.2
67.0
50.3
88.7
70.1
55.1
49.0
39.3
39.3
35.4
35.4
41.3
39.3
83.2
110.7
87.9
90.1
99.8
98.3
98.0
97.4
96.8
243.9
216.4
71.2
75.3
66.7
72.8
67.2
62.3
63.1
64.2
65.5
70.4
62.6
61.2
58.6
80.6
106.1
83.6
69.9
59.9
61.2
58.1
99.2
101.8
52.5
46.5
49.3
44.6
40.4
33.8
34.2
32.8
30.9
30.4
30.7
Condition
No Flood
Low Flood
No Flood
No Flood
No Flood
No Flood
1236.15
1180.40
Full Capacity
1550.00
1242.00
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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Month of August represents the monsoon season continuity with frequent rains in river/reservoirs catchments areas. Tarbela reached its maximum water storage capacity on 20th August at 1550 feet level above mean sea level. Water accumulation reached to about 3.084 MAF at the
end of the month. Total water accumulation in both reservoirs is around 6.056 MAF.
Page 19
Indus
Total
Sindh
KP
Balochistan
Total
Chenab
Month
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Total
Year
2013
2.093
1.357
3.449
2.198
0.115
0.000
5.762
2012
1.817
1.202
3.019
1.426
0.133
0.000
4.578
Change
0.28
0.15
0.43
0.77
-0.02
0.00
1.18
% change
15.17
12.87
14.26
54.10
-13.43
0.00
25.87
2013
2.746
2.427
5.173
2.249
0.171
0.073
7.666
6.165
2012
1.842
1.743
3.585
2.304
0.183
0.093
Change
0.90
0.68
1.59
-0.06
-0.01
-0.02
1.50
% change
49.08
39.26
44.31
-2.40
-6.51
-21.44
24.35
2013
3.142
3.352
6.494
4.919
0.175
0.415
12.002
2012
2.672
2.315
4.987
3.582
0.196
0.339
9.104
Change
0.47
1.04
1.51
1.34
-0.02
0.08
2.90
% change
17.59
44.82
30.23
37.32
-11.11
22.22
31.83
2013
3.370
3.561
6.931
7.657
0.184
0.524
15.296
2012
3.436
3.464
6.900
7.312
0.191
0.564
14.967
0.33
Change
-0.07
0.10
0.03
0.34
-0.01
-0.04
% change
-1.93
2.81
0.45
4.71
-3.33
-7.14
2.19
2013
2.607
2.545
5.152
5.626
0.151
0.209
11.138
2012
3.343
3.441
6.783
7.597
0.176
0.523
15.079
Change
-0.74
-0.90
-1.63
-1.97
-0.02
-0.31
-3.94
% change
-22.02
-26.03
-24.05
-25.94 -14.22
-60.00
-26.14
2013
13.957
13.242
27.199 22.648
0.796
1.221
51.864
25.274 22.222
2012
13.109
12.164
0.878
1.519
49.893
Change
0.85
1.08
1.93
0.43
-0.08
-0.30
1.97
% change
6.46
8.86
7.62
1.92
-9.44
-19.65
3.95
Page 20
Fertilizer Offtake
2013-14
Month
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Sub Total
Aug*
Total
2012-13
Nitrogen
Phosphate
Potash
165.9
262.7
308.2
244.2
981.0
240.5
1221.5
26.9
46.2
78.9
45.6
197.6
57.6
255.2
0.8
1.2
2.2
1.5
5.7
1.4
7.1
Total
Nitrogen
(000 tons)
193.6
169.8
310.1
197.3
389.3
533.3
291.3
212.1
1184.3
1112.5
299.5
173.7
1483.8
1286.2
% Change
Phosphate
Potash
Total
35.8
21.7
57.7
58.4
173.6
32.2
205.8
1.4
1.6
1.2
1.0
5.2
0.5
5.7
207.1
220.6
592.2
271.5
1291.4
206.4
1497.8
Nitrogen
-2.30
33.15
-42.21
15.13
-11.82
38.46
-5.03
Phosphate
-24.85
112.90
36.74
-21.92
13.82
78.88
24.00
Potash
-43.48
-25.00
83.33
51.52
9.16
180.00
24.05
Total
-6.49
40.57
-34.26
7.30
-8.29
45.11
-0.93
Source: NFDC
Page 21
Source: IRSA
Page 22
Page 23
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Page 24
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Page 25
Flood at Matiari
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Page 26
Crop Statistics:
Kharif Crops 2013-14
The current forecast for Sugarcane, Cotton and Rice production and yield is based on trend line and the area is
derived from hyper-temporal images of Terra/Aqua satellites data. The crop forecasts are as follows:
a) Sugarcane Forecast 2013-14
Provinces
Punjab
Sindh
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Pakistan
Error %
5.0
Provinces
Punjab
Sindh
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Pakistan
Error %
5.0
Provinces
Punjab
Sindh
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Pakistan
Area
000 ha
1817.3
637.7
236.8
127.5
2819.3
Error %
7.5