A

PROJECT REPORT
ON
CURRENCY FORECASTING
AT
SHRIRAM INSIGHT SHARE BROKERS LTD.
SUBMITTED BY

JUPALLY PRANITHA
ROLL NO: 1325-12-672-014
PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT FOR
THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF

MASTER IN BUSSINESS ADMINISTRATION

2012-14
AURORAS P.G COLLEGE,
RAMANTHAPUR,
HYDERABAD.
OSMANIA UNIVERSITY

Auroras PG College (MCA)

(Formerly Auroras P.G.College, Ramanthapur)
Ganesh Nagar, Ramanthapur, Hyderabad- 50013, Ph: 040-27030787
(Affiliated to Osmania University)

CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the Project Report entitled A STUDY ON

CURRENCY FORECASTING submitted in partial fulfillment for
the award of MBA Programme of Department of Business
Management, Auroras PG College, Ramanthapur, affiliated to
Osmania University, Hyderabad, was carried out by JUPALLY
PRANITHA H.T.No 1325-12-672-014 under our guidance. This has
not been submitted to any other University or Institution for the award
of any degree/diploma/certificate.

Internal Guide

Head of the Department

Principal

DECLARATION
I hereby declare that this project report titled A STUDY ON CURRENCY
FORECASTING at SHRIRAM INSIGHT SHARE BROKERS LTD.
submitted by me to the department of business management, O.U, Hyderabad, is a
bonafide work under taken by me and it is not submitted to any other university
or institution for the award of any degree diploma/certificate or published any time
before.

Name of the Student

JUPALLY PRANITHA

Signature of the student

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I take this opportunity to extend my profound thanks and deep sense of gratitude
to the SHRIRAM INSIGT SHARE BROKERS LTD.for giving me an
opportunity to undertake this project work in their esteemed organization.
My sincere thanks to Principal Mrs.Madhavi, HOD Mrs.Hemalatha and my
project internal guide Mrs.Preethi Jaiswal. For their kind encouragement and
constant support extended in completion of this project work from the bottom of
my heart.
I extend my profuse to my parents and friends for encouraging and supporting in
every part of my career.

J.PRANIT
HA
(1325-12-672-014)

TABLE OF CONTENTS
CONTENTS

PAGE NO.

LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF FIGURES

CHAPTER-1

1-7

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Need of the study

1.2 Scope of the study

1.3 Objectives of the study

1.4 Research Methodology

5-6

1.5 Limitations

CHAPTER-2

9-22

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

9-22

CHAPTER-3

24-49

INDUSTRY PROFILE

24-41

COMPANY PROFILE

42-49

CHAPTER-4

51-60

DATA ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATION

51-60

CHAPTER-5

62-64

5.1 Findings

62

5.2 Conclusion

63

5.3 Suggestions

64

BIBILOGRAPHY

66-67

LIST OF TABLES
S.NO. TABLE NO.
1.
3.1(A)
2.
3.1(B)

3.

4.1

TABLE NAME
TOP 10 CURRENCY TRADERS
Most traded currencies by value
currency distribution of global foreign
exchange market turnover
USD/INR

4.

4.2

GBP/INR

PAGE NO.
31
38-39

58

56

LIST OF

FIGURES
S.NO. FIGURE NO.
1.
3.1

FIGURE NAME
Market size and liquidity

PAGE NO.
29

2.

3.2

Services offered by Sriram Insight

49

3.

4.1 (A)

USD/INR

57

4.

4.2 (A)

GBP/INR

59

ABSTRACT
As the name suggests, currency forecasting refers to the ability to predict the longterm value and price of a currency. We have seen that there are, at least, two
approaches to predicting price changes. The first is fundamental analysis . The
second is technical analysis . However, technical analysis is more useful for
developing trading strategies that predict future price movements.
Market conditions are not an important factor to technical traders. Fundamentalists
are typically attempting to forecast market behavior and then predict how a
currency will respond in such a market environment. To do so, fundamental
traders develop models from which to formulate a trading strategy.
Technical traders skip directly to developing a trading system.The first part gives
an insight about currency derivatives and its various aspects, the Company Profile,
Objectives of the study, Research Methodology. One can have a brief knowledge
about share market and its basics through the Project.
The second part of the Project consists of data and its analysis collected 4 currency
pairs USD/INR and GBP/INR. For the collection of Primary data I made a
interview from currency derivative traders and brokers who dealing with currency
derivative. II visited other Currency derivative broking companies in Hyderabad to
get some knowledge related to my topic. I studied about the products and
strategies of other Stock broking companies in Hyderabad to know why people
prefer to invest in those share market. This Project covers the topic Currency
forecasting The data collected has been well organized and presented. I hope the
research findings and conclusion will be of use for best currency investment
decision.

CHAPTER-1
INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION
The world nations are increasingly becoming more interrelated global trade, and
global investment. These international result in cross country flow of world
nations. Countries hold currencies of other countries and that a market, dealing of
foreign exchange results.
Each country has its own currency through which both national and international
transactions are performed. All the international business transactions involve an
exchange of one currency for another

Forecast
A statistical analysis of the markets whereby a percentage chance is assigned to a
given price movement occurring. A forecast of the foreign exchange markets is
similar to a weather report in that both assign a probability to the occurence of an
identified market or climatic change.

Forecasting services
Financial services that provide professional traders and investors with an unbiased
second opinion and reliable support throughout the financial decision-making
process. Any professional with international business relations can use the
forecasting services to reduce thereforeign exchange risks due to currency price
fluctuations and get up-to-date information anytime.
Currency (from Middle English curraunt, meaning in circulation) in the most
specific use of the word refers to money in any form when in actual use or
circulation, as a medium of exchange, especially circulating paper money. This use
is synonymous with banknotes, or (sometimes) with banknotes plus coins,
meaning the physical tokens used for money by a government. A definition of
intermediate generality is that a currency is a system of money (monetary units) in
common use, especially in a nation. Under this definition, British pounds, U.S.
dollars, and European euros are different types of currency, or currencies.
Currencies in this definition need not be physical objects, but as stores of value are
subject to trading between nations in foreign exchange markets, which determine
the relative values of the different currencies.

1.1 NEED AND IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY

The world nations are increasingly becoming more interrelated global trade, and
global investment. These international result in cross country flow of world
nations. Countries hold currencies of other countries and that a market, dealing of
foreign exchange results.
Foreign exchange means reserves of foreign currencies. More aptly, foreign
exchange refers to claim to foreign money balances. Foreign exchange gives
resident of one country a financial claim on other country or countries. All
deposits, credits and balances payable in foreign currency and any drafts,
travelers cheques, letters of credit and bills of exchange payable in foreign
currency constitute foreign exchange. Foreign exchange market is the market
where money denominated in one currency is bought and sold with money
denominated in another currency. Transactions in currencies of countries, parties
to these transactions, rates at which one currency is exchanged for other or others,
ramificataion in these rates, derivatives to the currencies and dealing in them and
related aspects constitute the foreign exchange (in short, forex) market.
The importance of the study is to know the features of foreign exchange rate and
the factors creating risk in foreign exchange transactions and the techniques used
for managing that risk

1.2 Scope of the Study

2

Unlike stock market where all participants have access to same prices, the forex
market is divided into levels of access. At the peak is interbank market comprising
of large investment banking firms. The spread is usually very narrow and is not
known to the players outside the inner circle. At the lower levels, the spread
widens due to volume of transactions. The Foreign Exchange market is unique
because of its trading volume and its variation at different levels, liquidity of the
market, large number and a variety of traders, its geographical dispersion, long
trading hours, and variety of factors affecting the market. in Currency forecasting
is help full for

importer ,exporters ,exchange traders, currency derivative

traders ,hedgers, speculators and arbitragers

1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

3

To study about the currency forecasting methods.

To study and analyze the revenues of the company when the exchange rates
fluctuate.
To analyze income statement and find out the revenues when the dollars are
converted into Indian rupees.
To study the different types of foreign exchange exposure including risk and risk
management techniques which the company is used to minimize the risk.

1.4 RESEARCH AND METHODOLOGY

RESEARCH
4

 SAMPLING SIZE
In this study the sample size is taken in the form of income statement of company
for the year march .

SOURCES OF DATA
The data has been collected from various secondary sources like books and
internet.
The data has been collected in line with the objectives of the study.
The presentation of study of the IT company provide an insight in knowing the
foreign exchange risk policies adopted by them. This data has been collected from
the 2012-2013 annual reports of the companies.
Conclusions have been drawn after the detailed study of the risk management
policies of the IT company as to know what are the most widely used hedging
instruments for minimizing foreign exchange risk.

METHODOLOGY
A forecast represents an expectation about a future value or values of a variable.
The expectation is
constructed using an information set selected by the forecaster. Based on the
information set used by the
5

forecaster, there are two pure approaches to forecasting foreign exchange rates:
(1) The fundamental approach.
(2) The technical approach.

Research method
A simple moving average is formed by computing the average price of a security
over a specific number of periods. Most moving averages are based on closing
prices. A 5-day simple moving average is the five day sum of closing prices
divided by five. As its name implies, a moving average is an average that moves.
Old data is dropped as new data comes available. This causes the average to move
along the time scale. Below is an example of a 5-day moving average evolving
over three days.
Example:Daily Closing Prices: 11,12,13,14,15,16,17
First day of 5-day SMA: (11 + 12 + 13 + 14 + 15) / 5 = 13
Second day of 5-day SMA: (12 + 13 + 14 + 15 + 16) / 5 = 14
Third day of 5-day SMA: (13 + 14 + 15 + 16 + 17) / 5 = 15

1.5 LIMITATIONS

The study is confined just to the foreign exchange risk but not the total risk.
The analysis of this study is mainly done on the income statements.
This study is limited for the year 2012-2013.
It does not take into consideration all Indian companies foreign exchange risk.

CHAPTER-2
REVIEW OF LITRATURE

1 .Author:-VISHWANATHA CHINNAPA
Combine the Indian Rupee advantages, than consider that the Indian economy is
actually well better positioned than that of the

chinese

and you will see the

advantages of investing in both the SENSEX and the Rupee.

China continues to do the manufacturing for the world, while an educated work
force in India are taking the route of higher paid technology jobs. Most high-tech
outsourcing continues to move to India and the Rupee.
India's annua industrial output rose more than expected in July, driven by capital
goods production, which analysts

said signalled continuing investment and

underlying economic strength in the face of higher interest rates.

Friday's data showed industrial production rose 7.1 percent in July from a year
earlier, beating a forecast of 6.5 percent in a Reuters

poll and faster than 5.4

percent in June.
Industrial output is geared mostly to the domestic market, accounting for about a
fifth of GDP, and economists were divided on whether it was strong enough to
prompt another tightening by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at a rate review in
October.

2. Author:-Mr. JOHNDNATHAN (U.S.A)

The spread is closely associated with the pip and has a major importance for you
as a trader. It is the difference between the selling and the buying price of a
9

currency pair. It is the difference in the bid and ask price. The ask is the price at
which you buy and the bid is the price at which you sell.
Suppose the EUR/USD is quoted at 1.4502 bid and 1.4505 ask. In this case the
spread is 3 pips.
The pip spread is your cost of doing business here. In the case above it means you
sustain a paper loss equal to 3 pips at the moment you enter the trade. Your
contract has to appreciate by 3 pips before you break even. The lower the pip
spread the easier is it for you to profit.
Generally the more active and bigger the market, the lower the pip spread. The
smaller and exotic markets tend to have a higher spread. Most brokers will be
offering different spreads for different currencies. Smaller accounts will generally
have higher spreads than bigger regular accounts.
From the profitability point of view it is important to find a broker offering a
lower pip spread, however the low spread is not everything. Be sure you choose a
reputable broker.

10

3. Author:-JA FRANKEL,AK ROSE

Choppy markets give you little chance to have profits while a range bound market
is still able to let you gain significant profits, if you know how. So today well
look at a short forex trading tutorial on trading ranging forex markets.
Rule #1: You dont have to care much about trend and a forex trend system dont
work because the price is just ranging between certain levels and you only have to
trade in between those levels. You do not expect the price to go far beyond those
levels or else it will be considered a breakout.
Rule #2: Range trading is such that the price will return back to its origin no
matter which direction the price goes. So what traders do is identify the support
and resistance levels that the price cant break through, and trade between those
levels over and over again to gain profits with this forex trading system.
Rule #3: The more times a currency pair reaches a support and resistance level and
then reverses, the stronger the level is. This level is also known as pivot because
once the price touches the support or resistance, it reverses. The pivot point is also
used as one of the widely recognized forex indicators. For example, if the currency
pair is near the strong support level and you expect it to reverse, you could buy the
pair and place a stop loss just below the support level.
Rule #4: True range traders require a different money management method and of
course different forex trading strategies compared to trend traders. Instead of just
waiting for a pin-point trade entry, range traders might agree to be at the wrong
side so that they can build a trading position.
For example, if a currency pair is trading at 1.5000, a range trader might want to
buy the pair for every 50 pips lower and sell the pair for every 50 pips higher.
They assume that the price will still go back to the origin. So if the pair goes up to
1.5500 and then comes back to 1.5000 again, he would have made significant
profits.
Rule #5: In order to be a true range trader to implement this type of forex strategy,
you would need to have good capital in your trading account.

4. Author:- Joseph Nguyen

Joseph Nguyen is an Research Analyst and contributing author at Investopedia. He
graduated from the University of Alberta with a Bachelor of Commerce degree
11

and specializes in financial analysis and research. Prior to joining Investopedia, he

worked at a securities brokerage firm.
Foreign currency rates are important to every American. Our economy is
dependent upon foreign currency exchange rates perhaps more than most
countries. Several reasons account for this and one of the most important is the
value of the dollar determines what other countries pay for our goods and what we
pay for their goods. A rising dollar makes our goods more expensive for foreign
buyers. This can result in a loss of sales and a loss of jobs. Foreign goods are
cheaper for Americans to buy when the dollar rises. Again, American sales and
jobs can decline because foreign made goods are less expensive.
The Orlando, Florida entertainment mecca was an inexpensive vacation for
Europeans, but the trip is becoming more costly because the Euro is declining in
value as is the British Pound Sterling. The Euro is worth 1.31 to the U.S. Dollar.
The United Kingdom Pound is currently worth 1.55 to the U.S. dollar. Both are at
a low mark for the past 18 months.
Since the U. S. dollar is rising in value against the Euro Americans can buy more
products from the member countries of the European Economic Union. This
means, however, that dollars are leaving America instead of creating jobs in
America.
Some foreign currency exchange experts forecast a decline in the Euro to 1.20 by
July of 2011. The recent high was 1.50 in November, 2009. The same experts
forecast the United Kingdom Pound to decline to 1.28 by July of 2011. The recent
high was 1.65 in November, 2009.
The Canadian dollar is almost equal in value to the U. S. dollar today and this has
enabled Canadians to buy second homes in the U. S. making the housing resale
market stronger, not by an appreciable difference but enough to warrant taking
notice of the sales.
What does all of this mean for the average American? First, consider buying
American made products whenever possible. Keeping the dollars in the U. S.
keeps jobs in the U. S. Secondly, shop for purchases of foreign made products
carefully to make sure that the price differential is included in the price of the
product. Thirdly, think carefully about making investments in foreign countries.
The sale of foreign investments in the future may result in in a loss if the currency
of the country falls.
12

Americans should watch the problems with the U. S. economy, especially the
nations trade deficit and the ballooning federal deficit which raise questions about
the viability of the dollar. Gage buying and travel plans by watching the dollar
value which is published on line and in most newspapers.

5. Authors:-P Kenen, R Mundell, AK Swoboda

One of the reasons why 95% of the people lose money in the forex market is that
currency trading is not always trending.

13

Choppy markets is a major killer to most forex traders because it may look as
though its starting to trend in the beginning, but the fact is that it is only a false
movement of the price. Forex signals may indicate a correct move in your
direction for one moment but move against you the next moment and hit your stop
loss.
In other words, you have been whipsawed. With the lack of forex trading
techniques in the beginning, I have also personally experienced many whipsaws
many years back when I was learning how to trade forex. Below are some forex
trading strategies I've learned that can help you overcame the whipsaws or false
moves and ensure the safety of your forex account.
This paper is a theoretical study of the determination of prices, interest rates and
currency exchange rates, set in an infinitely-lived two-country world which is
subject both to stochastic endowment shocks and to monetary instability. Formulas
are obtained for pricing all equity claims, nominally-denominated bonds, and
currencies, and these formulas are related to earlier, closely related results in the
theories of money, finance international trade.

14

Methods for forecasting exchange rates:

1. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP):
The purchasing power parity (PPP) is perhaps the most popular method due to its
indoctrination in most economic textbooks. The PPP forecasting approach is based
off of the theoretical Law of One Price, which states that identical goods in
different

countries

should

have

identical

prices.

For example, this law argues that a pencil in Canada should be the same price as a
pencil in the U.S. after taking into account the exchange rate and excluding
transaction and shipping costs. In other words, there should be no arbitrage
opportunity for someone to buy pencils cheap in one country and sell them in
another for a profit.
Based on this underlying principle, the PPP approach forecasts that the exchange
rate will change to offset price changes due to inflation. For example, suppose that
prices in theU.S. are expected to increase by 4% over the next year while prices
in Canada are expected to rise by only 2%. The inflation differential between the
two countries is:
4%-2%=2
This means that prices in the U.S. are expected to rise faster relative to prices in
Canada. In this situation, the purchasing power parity approach would forecast
that the U.S. dollar would have to depreciate by approximately 2% to keep prices
between both countries relatively equal. So, if the current exchange rate was 90
cents U.S. per one Canadian dollar, then the PPP would forecast an exchange rate
of:
(1+0.02)*(US$0.90 per CA$1)=US$0.918 per CA$
Meaning it would now take 91.8 cents U.S. to buy one Canadian dollar.
One of the most well-known applications of the PPP method is illustrated by
the Big Mac Index, compiled and published by The Economist. This light-hearted
index attempts to measure whether a currency is undervalued or overvalued based
on the price of Big Macs in various countries.

How to find the best credit card for your lifestyle:

15

Relative Economic Strength Approach:

As the name may suggest, the relative economic strength approach looks at the
strength of economic growth in different countries in order to forecast the
direction of exchange rates. The rationale behind this approach is based on the
idea that a strong economic environment and potentially high growth is more
likely to attract investments from foreign investors. And, in order to purchase
investments in the desired country, an investor would have to purchase the
country's currency - creating increased demand that should cause the currency to
appreciate.
This approach doesn't just look at the relative economic strength between
countries. It takes a more general view and looks at all investment flows. For
instance, another factor that can draw investors to a certain country is interest
rates. High interest rates will attract investors looking for the highest yield on their
investments, causing demand for the currency to increase, which again would
result in an appreciation of the currency.
Conversely, low interest rates can also sometimes induce investors to avoid
investing in a particular country or even borrow that country's currency at low
interest rates to fund other investments. Many investors did this with the Japanese
yen when the interest rates in Japan were at extreme lows. This strategy is
commonly known as the carry-trade. (Learn more about the carry trade
in Profiting From Carry Trade Candidates.)
Unlike the PPP approach, the relative economic strength approach doesn't forecast
what the exchange rate should be. Rather, this approach gives the investor a
general sense of whether a currency is going to appreciate or depreciate and an
overall feel for the strength of the movement. This approach is typically used in
combination with other forecasting methods to develop a more complete forecast.

2. Econometric Models:

16

Another common method used to forecast exchange rates involves gathering

factors that you believe affect the movement of a certain currency and creating a
model that relates these factors to the exchange rate. The factors used
in econometric models are normally based on economic theory, but any variable
can be added if it is believed to significantly influence the exchange rate.
As an example, suppose that a forecaster for a Canadian company has been tasked
with forecasting the USD/CAD exchange rate over the next year. He believes an
econometric model would be a good method to use and has researched factors he
thinks affect the exchange rate. From his research and analysis, he concludes the
factors that are most influential are: the interest rate differential between the U.S.
and Canada (INT), the difference in GDP growth rates (GDP), and income growth
rate (IGR) differences between the two countries. The econometric model he
comes up with is shown as:
USD/CAD (1-year) = z+a(INT)+b(GDP)+c(IGR)
We won't go into the details of how the model is constructed, but after the model is
made, the variables INT, GDP and IGR can be plugged into the model to generate
a forecast. The coefficients a, b and c will determine how much a certain factor
affects the exchange rate and direction of the effect (whether it is positive or
negative). You can see that this method is probably the most complex and timeconsuming approach of all the ones discussed so far. However, once the model is
built, new data can be easily acquired and plugged into the model to generate
quick

forecasts.

3. Time Series Model:

The last approach we'll introduce you to is the time series model. This method is
purely technical in nature and is not based on any economic theory. One of the
more popular time series approaches is called the autoregressive moving average
(ARMA) process. The rationale for using this method is based on the idea that past
behavior and price patterns can be used to predict future price behavior and
patterns. The data you need to use this approach is simply a time series of data that

17

can then be entered into a computer program to estimate the parameters and
essentially create a model for you.

4. Bottom Line
Forecasting exchange rates is a very difficult task, and it is for this reason that
many companies and investors simply hedge their currency risk. However, there
are others who see value in forecasting exchange rates and want to understand the
factors that affect their movements. For people who want to learn to forecast
exchange rates, these four approaches are a good place to start.

Forex Currency Trading:

The forex currency market is rather similar to the stock markets and like the stock
markets, forex currency trading also requires a broker. So what is a broker and
what do a broker do? A broker is an individual registered in a financial institution
or a company and the broker's job is to get order to buy or sell according to the
trader's decisions. Like any job, a broker earns money for the services they
provide. You can find that there are numerous brokers offering their services
online, so before you settle for one, it is better that you spend some time
understanding and do some research on your own. Here's an easy guide to help
you choose a right broker, there are basically 3 things that you need to be aware of
before you open a forex currency trading account with them. They are:

1. Account Types
2. Spread
3. Services

18

Americans should watch the problems with the U. S. economy, especially the
nations trade deficit and the ballooning federal deficit which raise questions about
the viability of the dollar. Gage buying and travel plans by watching the dollar
value which is published on line and in most newspapers.

1. Account Types:
Some brokers offer more than one types of account when you register with them,
so choosing the right one is essential. Account types can range from mini account
to professional account. A mini forex account is the smallest account offered
which sets a minimum amount that is required when you trade. The minimum
amount can be as low as US$100, and with the low a minimum amount required,
the leverage offered could be significantly high (such as 100:1 ratio). This enables
you to make money with the small initial amount. A standard account on the other
hand, allows you to choose from a wide variety of different leverages which you
can employ. Usually, an initial amount of $2000 is required for this type of
account. And finally, if you are a sophisticated or a high net-worth investor, a
professional account allows you to employ a wide range of different leverages as
well as oferring you with additional tools and services. However, this type of
accounts usually requires a significant amount of initial capital to trade.

2. Spread
Spread is the difference between the buying price and the selling price of the
currency, and it is calculated in pips. Like the stock markets, brokers make money
through the commisions charged. Similarly, in the forex currency market, brokers
are making their money through spreads. As such, when choosing a broker,
knowing the difference in spreads is as important as knowing the commissions
charged for trading in the stock market. A higher spread simply means the broker
is earning more for each trade and thus, you might want to look around and hunt

19

for one that offers a lower spread. The savings can be significant over the long run
or when a huge sum of money is involved.

3. Services
As forex brokers need to provide their clients with huge amount of leverages, they
are usually linked to large financial institutions and banks to obtain these huge
capitals. Because a huge sum of money is involved in every trade and to be on the
safe side, you might want to make sure that the forex broker are authorized and
legitimate to perform the trading, the broker should be preferrably from quality
institutions. Also like the stock brokers, forex brokers provides many different
platforms for their clients to trade. The platform offered should incloude real-time
charts, data, economic news as well as other tools such as technical analysis to
assist you in your trade. You can ask for free trials for the forex currency trading
platforms from numerous brokers to see which one suits your needs. Only assign
the broker when you are truly satisfied with the services provided. In addition, you
might also want to ensure adequate technical supports are provided for their forex
currency trading platforms should you require any assistance.
Read How To Trade Forex Revealed to have a better understanding of what forex
trading is all about.

Next : Power of Forex Leverage

Once you have opened a forex currency trading account, your broker will probably
offer you forex leverage up to a specified ratio. Understanding the power of
leverage in forex trading is important and learn to know how you can use it in
your trade.

20

Forex Exchange Trading:

Forex Exchange Trading has become one of the hottest ways to make money. In
this market, you can literally make hundreds of dollars each day just by trading
currencies. The internet has literally made it possible for individuals to take part in
this exciting financial instrument whether full time or part time. Indeed, many
people have joined this forex exchange trading bandwagon these days. Some even
treated it as their own business and some have become forex exchange trading
full-timer.
One significant advantage of this class of investment is the very low start up
capital required. One can open a trading account with a minimum deposit as low
as US$100 only. Hence, it is great for someone without big capital.
The forex exchange market is the largest market in the world where basically
anyone can enter and exit the market freely and easily at anytime at their desired
price. In addition, the forex exchange market is also open 24 hours a day, thereby
making it possible for flexible trading wise.
Another major advantage of forex exchange trading is that, the transaction costs is
low whereby a traders pay is well spread, based on the buy and sell price of the
trading. One can profit from forex exchange trading by the rising and falling prices
of the currencies which are paired. Besides, a trader is also given equal access
whether to buy or sell. There will always be a place to make profit regardless of
the current state of the economy. In other words, forex exchange performs in both
bullish and bearish markets.

Knowledge And Skills Perfects Forex Exchange Trading:

Despite all the advantages, one will require proper trading skills to trade
successfully in the forex exchange market. forex exchange market is a highly
volatile one and it is better to invest some time and money into proper forex
exchange trading educations beforehand. It is always better and wiser to arm
yourself with the best knowledge before you start venturing. Paying for a good
21

trading education is less costly compared to paying for losing trades which can
also be emotionally draining.

With proper forex exchange education and training, you will benefit from the
mistakes that others have made. You are already one step ahead as you can avoid
the costly mistakes right away without having to learn from your-own real-life
trading experience and wasting your precious time.
Nevertheless, forex exchange trading is a very good way for people with low
start-up capital to earn big money, and yes, fast. But in reality, it requires efforts,
skills and knowledge to trade in this market.

The Pros and Cons of Forex Exchange Trading:

Pros :
The largest financial market in the world.

Low start-up costs

Forex exchange trading can be done online
Ability to trade any anytime and anywhere
Flexible trading hours
There is no slippage.
If you know the forex exchange trading game well, the money you gain can be
enormous.

Cons:

Forex exchange trading can be highly volatile.

Requires substantial knowledge and skills.

22

23

CHAPTER-3
INDUSTRY PROFILE
&
COMPANY PROFILE

24

INDUSTRY PROFILE
The foreign exchange market (forex, FX, or currency market) is a global
decentralized market for the trading of currencies. The main participants in this
market are the larger international banks. Financial centers around the world
function as anchors of trading between a wide range of different types of buyers
and sellers around the clock, with the exception of weekends. Electronic Broking
Services (EBS) and Reuters 3000 Xtra are two main interbank FX trading
platforms. The foreign exchange market determines the relative values of different
currencies.
The foreign exchange market works through financial institutions, and it operates
on several levels. Behind the scenes banks turn to a smaller number of financial
firms known as dealers, who are actively involved in large quantities of foreign
exchange trading. Most foreign exchange dealers are banks, so this behind-thescenes market is sometimes called the interbank market, although a few
insurance companies and other kinds of financial firms are involved. Trades
between foreign exchange dealers can be very large, involving hundreds of
millions of dollars.[citation needed] Because of the sovereignty issue when
involving two currencies, Forex has little (if any) supervisory entity regulating its
actions.
The foreign exchange market assists international trade and investment by
enabling currency conversion. For example, it permits a business in the United
States to import goods from the European Union member states, especially
Eurozone members, and pay euros, even though its income is in United States
dollars. It also supports direct speculation in the value of currencies, and the carry
trade, speculation based on the interest rate differential between two currencies.
In a typical foreign exchange transaction, a party purchases some quantity of one
currency by paying some quantity of another currency. The modern foreign
exchange market began forming during the 1970s after three decades of
government restrictions on foreign exchange transactions (the Bretton Woods
system of monetary management established the rules for commercial and
financial relations among the world's major industrial states after World War II),
when countries gradually switched to floating exchange rates from the previous
exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system.
25

The foreign exchange market is unique because of the following characteristics: its
huge trading volume representing the largest asset class in the world leading to
high liquidity; its geographical dispersion; its continuous operation: 24 hours a day
except weekends, i.e., trading from 22:00 GMT on Sunday (Sydney) until 22:00
GMT Friday (New York) the variety of factors that affect exchange rates the low
margins of relative profit compared with other markets of fixed income and the
use of leverage to enhance profit and loss margins and with respect to account
size.
As such, it has been referred to as the market closest to the ideal of perfect
competition, notwithstanding currency intervention by central banks.
According to the Bank for International Settlements, the preliminary global results
from the 2013 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and OTC
Derivatives Markets Activity show that trading in foreign exchange markets
averaged $5.3 trillion per day in April 2013. This is up from $4.0 trillion in April
2010 and $3.3 trillion in April 2007. FX swaps were the most actively traded
instruments in April 2013, at $2.2 trillion per day, followed by spot trading at $2.0
trillion.
According to the Bank for International Settlements, as of April 2010, average
daily turnover in global foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3.98 trillion, a
growth of approximately 20% over the $3.21 trillion daily volume as of April
2007. Some firms specializing on foreign exchange market had put the average
daily turnover in excess of US$4 trillion.
The $3.98 trillion break-down is as follows:
I.

$1.490 trillion in spot transactions

II.

$475 billion in outright forwards

III.

$1.765 trillion in foreign exchange swaps

IV.

$43 billion currency swaps

V.

$207 billion in options and other products

Early modern:
The firm Alexander Brown & Sons traded foreign currencies exchange sometime
about 1850 and were a leading participant in this within U.S.A. During 1880 J.M.
26

do Esprito Santo de Silva (Banco Esprito e Comercial de Lisboa) applied for and
was given permission to begin to engage in a foreign exchange trading business.
1880 is considered by one source to be the beginning of modern foreign exchange,
significant for the fact of the beginning of the gold standard during the year.
Prior to the first world war there was a much more limited control of international
trade. Motivated by the outset of war countries abandoned the gold standard
monetary system.

Modern to post-modern:
From 1899 to 1913, holdings of countries' foreign exchange increased at an annual
rate of 10.8%, while holdings of gold increased at an annual rate of 6.3% between
1903 and 1913.
At the time of the closing of the year 1913, nearly half of the world's foreign
exchange was conducted using the Pound sterling.The number of foreign banks
operating within the boundaries of London increased in the years from 1860 to
1913 from 3 to 71. In 1902 there were altogether two London foreign exchange
brokers. In the earliest years of the twentieth century trade was most active in
Paris, New York and Berlin, while Britain remained largely uninvolved in trade
until 1914. Between 1919 and 1922 the employment of a foreign exchange brokers
within London increased to 17, in 1924 there were 40 firms operating for the
purposes of exchange. During the 1920s the occurrence of trade in London
resembled more the modern manifestation, by 1928 forex trade was integral to the
financial functioning of the city. Continental exchange controls, plus other factors,
in Europe and Latin America, hampered any attempt at wholesale prosperity from
trade for those of 1930's London.
During the 1920s foreign exchange the Kleinwort family were known to be the
leaders of the market, Japhets, S,Montagu & Co. and seligmans as significant
participants still warrant recognition. In the year 1945 the nation of Ethiopias'
government possessed a foreign exchange surplus.

After WWII:
After WWII, the Bretton Woods Accord was signed allowing currencies to
fluctuate within a range of 1% to the currencies par.In Japan the law was changed
during 1954 by the Foreign Exchange Bank Law, so, the Bank of Tokyo was to
27

become because of this the centre of foreign exchange by September of that year.
Between 1954 and 1959 Japanese law was made to allow the inclusion of many
more Occidental currencies in Japanese forex.
US President Richard Nixon is credited with ending the Bretton Woods Accord,
and fixed rates of exchange, bringing about eventually a free-floating currency
system. After the ceasing of the enactment of the Bretton Woods Accord (during
1971 ) the Smithsonian Agreement allowed trading to range to 2%. During 1961
62 the amount of foreign operations by the U.S. of America's Federal Reserve was
relatively low. Those involved in controlling exchange rates found the boundaries
of the Agreement were not realistic and so ceased this in March 1973, when
sometime afterward none of the major currencies were maintained with a capacity
for conversion to gold,

organisations relied instead on reserves of currency.

During 1970 to 1973 the amount of trades occurring in the market increased threefold.At some time (according to Gandolfo during FebruaryMarch 1973) some of
the markets' were "split", so a two tier currency market was subsequently
introduced, with dual currency rates. This was abolished during March 1974.
Reuters introduced during June 1973 computer monitors, replacing the telephones
and telex used previously for trading quotes.

Markets close:
Due to the ultimate ineffectiveness of the Bretton Woods Accord and the European
Joint Float the forex markets were forced to close sometime during 1972 and
March 1973.The very largest of all purchases of dollars in the history of 1976 was
when the West German government achieved an almost 3 billion dollar acquisition
(a figure given as 2.75 billion in total by The Statesman: Volume 18 1974), this
event indicated the impossibility of the balancing of exchange stabilities by the
measures of control used at the time and the monetary system and the foreign
exchange markets in "West" Germany and other countries within Europe closed
for two weeks (during February and, or, March 1973. Giersch, Paqu, &
Schmieding state closed after purchase of "7.5 million Dmarks" Brawley states "...
Exchange markets had to be closed. When they re-opened ... March 1 " that is a
large purchase occurred after the close).

After 1973:

28

In fact 1973 marks the point to which nation-state, banking trade and controlled
foreign exchange ended and complete floating, relatively free conditions of a
market characteristic of the situation in contemporary times began (according to
one source),although another states the first time a currency pair were given as an
option for U.S.A. traders to purchase was during 1982, with additional currencies
available by the next year.
On 1 January 1981 (as part of changes beginning during 1978 ) the Bank of China
allowed certain domestic "enterprises" to participate in foreign exchange
trading .Sometime during the months of 1981 the South Korean government ended
forex controls and allowed free trade to occur for the first time. During 1988 the
countries government accepted the IMF quota for international trade.
Intervention by European banks especially the Bundes bank influenced the forex
market, on February the 27th 1985 particularly. The greatest proportion of all
trades world-wide during 1987 were within the United Kingdom, slightly over one
quarter, with the U.S. of America the nation with the second most places involved
in trading.
During 1991 the republic of Iran changed international agreements with some
countries from oil-barter to foreign exchange.

3.1 Market size and liquidity:

Main foreign exchange market turnover, 19882007, measured in billions of USD.

29

The foreign exchange market is the most liquid financial market in the world.
Traders include large banks, central banks, institutional investors, currency
speculators, corporations, governments, otherfinancial institutions, and retail
investors. The average daily turnover in the global foreign exchange and related
markets is continuously growing. According to the 2010 Triennial Central Bank
Survey, coordinated by the Bank for International Settlements, average daily
turnover was US$3.
98 trillion in April 2010 (vs $1.7 trillion in 1998).Of this $3.98 trillion, $1.5
trillion was spot transactions and $2.5 trillion was traded in outright forwards,
swaps and other derivatives.
In April 2010, trading in the United Kingdom accounted for 36.7% of the total,
making it by far the most important centre for foreign exchange trading. Trading
in the United States accounted for 17.9% and Japan accounted for 6.2%.
In April 2013, for the first time, Singapore surpassed Japan in average daily
foreign-exchange trading volume with $383 billion per day. So the rank became:
the United Kingdom (41%), the United States (19%), Singapore (5.7)%, Japan
(5.6%) and Hong Kong (4.1%).
Turnover of exchange-traded foreign exchange futures and options have grown
rapidly in recent years, reaching $166 billion in April 2010 (double the turnover
recorded in April 2007). Exchange-traded currency derivatives represent 4% of
OTC foreign exchange turnover. Foreign exchange futures contracts were
introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded
relative to most other futures contracts.
Most developed countries permit the trading of derivative products (like futures
and options on futures) on their exchanges. All these developed countries already
have fully convertible capital accounts. Some governments of emerging
economies do not allow foreign exchange derivative products on their exchanges
because they have capital controls. The use of derivatives is growing in many
emerging economies.
Countries such as Korea, South Africa, and India have established currency
futures exchanges, despite having some capital controls.

30

3.1(A) TOP TEN CURRENCY TRADERS

Top 10 currency traders
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

% of overall volume, May 2013

Name
Deutsche Bank
Citi
Barclays Investment Bank
UBS AG
HSBC
JPMorgan
Royal Bank of Scotland
Credit Suisse
Morgan Stanley
Bank of America Merrill Lynch

31

Market share
15.18%
14.90%
10.24%
10.11%
6.93%
6.07%
5.62%
3.70%
3.15%
3.08%

Foreign exchange trading increased by 20% between April 2007 and April 2010
and has more than doubled since 2004. The increase in turnover is due to a number
32

of factors: the growing importance of foreign exchange as an asset class, the

increased trading activity of high-frequency traders, and the emergence of retail as
an important market segment. The growth ofelectronic execution and the diverse
selection of execution venues has lowered transaction costs, increased market
liquidity, and attracted greater participation from many customer types. In
particular, electronic trading via online portals has made it easier for retail traders
to trade in the foreign exchange market. By 2010, retail trading is estimated to
account for up to 10% of spot turnover, or $150 billion per day (see retail foreign
exchange platform).
Foreign exchange is an over-the-counter market where brokers/dealers negotiate
directly with one another, so there is no central exchange or clearing house. The
biggest geographic trading center is the United Kingdom, primarily London,
which according to The CityUK estimates has increased its share of global
turnover in traditional transactions from 34.6% in April 2007 to 36.7% in April
2010. Due to London's dominance in the market, a particular currency's quoted
price is usually the London market price. For instance, when the International
Monetary Fund calculates the value of its special drawing rightsevery day, they
use the London market prices at noon that day.

Market participants:
Unlike a stock market, the foreign exchange market is divided into levels of
access. At the top is the interbank market, which is made up of the largest
commercial banks and securities dealers. Within the interbank market, spreads,
which are the difference between the bid and ask prices, are razor sharp and not
known to players outside the inner circle. The difference between the bid and ask
prices widens (for example from 0 to 1 pip to 12 pips for a currencies such as the
EUR) as you go down the levels of access. This is due to volume. If a trader can
guarantee large numbers of transactions for large amounts, they can demand a
smaller difference between the bid and ask price, which is referred to as a better
spread. The levels of access that make up the foreign exchange market are
determined by the size of the "line" (the amount of money with which they are
trading). The top-tier interbank market accounts for 39% of all transactions. From
there, smaller banks, followed by large multi-national corporations (which need to
33

hedge risk and pay employees in different countries), large hedge funds, and even
some of the retail market makers. According to Galati and Melvin, Pension funds,
insurance companies, mutual funds, and other institutional investors have played
an increasingly important role in financial markets in general, and in FX markets
in particular, since the early 2000s. (2004) In addition, he notes, Hedge funds
have grown markedly over the 20012004 period in terms of both number and
overall size Central banks also participate in The foreign exchange market to
align currencies to their economic needs

History:
Ancient
Currency trading and exchange first occurred in ancient times. Money-changing
people, people helping others to change money and also taking a commission or
charging a fee were living in the times of the Talmudic writings (Biblical times).
These people (sometimes called "kollybists") used city-stalls, at feast times the
temples Court of the Gentiles instead.Money-changers were also in more recent
ancient times silver-smiths and, or, gold-smiths.
During the fourth century the Byzantium government kept a monopoly on the
exchange of currency. Currency and exchange was also a crucial element of trade
in the ancient world so that people could buy and sell items like food, pottery and
raw materials.If a Greek coin held more gold than an Egyptian coin due to its size
or content, then a merchant could trade fewer Greek gold coins for more Egyptian
ones, or for more material goods. This is why the vast majority of world currencies
are derivatives of a universally recognized standard like silver and gold.
Medieval and laterDuring the fifteenth century the Medici family were required to
open banks at foreign locations in order to exchange currencies to act for textile
merchants.
To facilitate trade the bank created the nostro (from Italian translated "ours")
account book which contained two columned entries showing amounts of foreign
and local currencies, information pertaining to the keeping of an account with a
foreign bank. During the 17th (or 18th ) century Amsterdam maintained an active
forex market. During 1704 foreign exchange took place between agents acting in
the interests of the nations of England and Holland.
34

Commercial companies:
An important part of this market comes from the financial activities of companies
seeking foreign exchange to pay for goods or services. Commercial companies
often trade fairly small amounts compared to those of banks or speculators, and
their trades often have little short term impact on market rates. Nevertheless, trade
flows are an important factor in the long-term direction of a currency's exchange
rate. Some multinational companies can have an unpredictable impact when very
large positions are covered due to exposures that are not widely known by other
market participants.

Central banks:
National central banks play an important role in the foreign exchange markets.
They try to control the money supply, inflation, and/or interest rates and often
have official or unofficial target rates for their currencies. They can use their often
substantial foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the market. Nevertheless, the
effectiveness of central bank "stabilizing speculation" is doubtful because central
banks do not go bankrupt if they make large losses, like other traders would, and
there is no convincing evidence that they do make a profit trading.

Foreign exchange fixing:

Foreign exchange fixing is the daily monetary exchange rate fixed by the national
bank of each country. The idea is that central banks use the fixing time and
exchange rate to evaluate behavior of their currency. Fixing exchange rates reflects
the real value of equilibrium in the market. Banks, dealers and traders use fixing
rates as a trend indicator.
The mere expectation or rumor of a central bank foreign exchange intervention
might be enough to stabilize a currency, but aggressive intervention might be used
several times each year in countries with a dirty float currency regime. Central
banks do not always achieve their objectives. The combined resources of the
market can easily overwhelm any central bank.Several scenarios of this nature

35

were seen in the 199293 European Exchange Rate Mechanism collapse, and in
more recent times in Asia.

Hedge funds as speculators:

About 70% to 90%[citation needed] of the foreign exchange transactions are
speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the
currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end; rather,
they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency. Hedge
funds have gained a reputation for aggressive currency speculation since 1996.
They control billions of dollars of equity and may borrow billions more, and thus
may overwhelm intervention by central banks to support almost any currency, if
the economic fundamentals are in the hedge funds' favor.

Investment management firms:

Investment management firms (who typically manage large accounts on behalf of
customers such as pension funds and endowments) use the foreign exchange
market to facilitate transactions in foreign securities. For example, an investment
manager bearing an international equity portfolio needs to purchase and sell
several pairs of foreign currencies to pay for foreign securities purchases.
Some investment management firms also have more speculative specialist
currency overlay operations, which manage clients' currency exposures with the
aim of generating profits as well as limiting risk. While the number of this type of
specialist firms is quite small, many have a large value of assets under
management and, hence, can generate large trades.

Retail foreign exchange traders:

Individual retail speculative traders constitute a growing segment of this market
with the advent of retail foreign exchange platforms, both in size and importance.
Currently, they participate indirectly through brokers or banks. Retail brokers,
while largely controlled and regulated in the USA by the Commodity Futures
Trading Commission and National Futures Association have in the past been
subjected to periodic Foreign exchange fraud. To deal with the issue, in 2010 the
36

NFA required its members that deal in the Forex markets to register as such (I.e.,
Forex CTA instead of a CTA). Those NFA members that would traditionally be
subject to minimum net capital requirements, FCMs and IBs, are subject to greater
minimum net capital requirements if they deal in Forex. A number of the foreign
exchange brokers operate from the UK under Financial Services Authority
regulations where foreign exchange trading using margin is part of the wider overthe-counter derivatives trading industry that includes Contract for differences and
financial spread betting.
There are two main types of retail FX brokers offering the opportunity for
speculative currency trading: brokers and dealers ormarket makers. Brokers serve
as an agent of the customer in the broader FX market, by seeking the best price in
the market for a retail order and dealing on behalf of the retail customer. They
charge a commission or mark-up in addition to the price obtained in the market.
Dealers or market makers, by contrast, typically act as principal in the transaction
versus the retail customer, and quote a price they are willing to deal at.

Non-bank foreign exchange companies:

Non-bank foreign exchange companies offer currency exchange and international
payments to private individuals and companies. These are also known as foreign
exchange brokers but are distinct in that they do not offer speculative trading but
rather currency exchange with payments (i.e., there is usually a physical delivery
of currency to a bank account).
It is estimated that in the UK, 14% of currency transfers/payments are made via
Foreign Exchange Companies. These companies' selling point is usually that they
will offer better exchange rates or cheaper payments than the customer's
bank.These companies differ from Money Transfer/Remittance Companies in that
they generally offer higher-value services.

Money transfer/remittance companies and bureaux de change:

Money transfer companies/remittance companies perform high-volume low-value
transfers generally by economic migrants back to their home country. In 2007, the
Aite Group estimated that there were $369 billion of remittances (an increase of
37

8% on the previous year). The four largest markets (India, China, Mexico and the
Philippines) receive $95 billion. The largest and best known provider is Western
Union with 345,000 agents globally followed by UAE Exchange[citation needed].
Bureaux de change or currency transfer companies provide low value foreign
exchange services for travelers. These are typically located at airports and stations
or at tourist locations and allow physical notes to be exchanged from one currency
to another. They access the foreign exchange markets via banks or non bank
foreign exchange companies.

Trading characteristics:

38

3.1(B) Most traded currencies by value

Currency distribution of global foreign exchange market
turnover
ISO 4217 code

% daily share

(Symbol)

(April 2013)

Rank

Currency

United States dollar

USD ($)

87.0%

Euro

EUR ()

33.4%

Japanese yen

JPY ()

23.0%

Pound sterling

GBP ()

11.8%

Australian dollar

AUD ($)

8.6%

CHF (Fr)

5.2%

Swiss franc

Canadian dollar

CAD ($)

4.6%

Mexican peso

MXN ($)

2.5%

Chinese yuan

CNY ()

2.2%

10

New Zealand dollar

NZD ($)

2.0%

11

Swedish krona

SEK (kr)

1.8%

12

Russian ruble

RUB ()

1.6%

13

Hong Kong dollar

HKD ($)

1.4%

14

Singapore dollar

SGD ($)

1.4%

15

Turkish lira

TRY ( )

1.3%

39

Other

12.2%

Total

200%

There is no unified or centrally cleared market for the majority of trades, and there
is very little cross-border regulation. Due to the over-the-counter (OTC) nature of
currency markets, there are rather a number of interconnected marketplaces, where
different currencies instruments are traded. This implies that there is not a single
exchange rate but rather a number of different rates (prices), depending on what
bank or market maker is trading, and where it is. In practice the rates are quite
close due to arbitrage. Due to London's dominance in the market, a particular
currency's quoted price is usually the London market price. Major trading
exchanges include Electronic Broking Services (EBS) and Reuters 3000 extra,
while major banks also offer trading systems. A joint venture of the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange and Reuters, called Fx market space opened in 2007 and
aspired but failed to the role of a central market clearing mechanism[citation
needed].
The main trading centers are New York and London, though Tokyo, Hong Kong
and Singapore are all important centers as well. Banks throughout the world
participate. Currency trading happens continuously throughout the day; as the
Asian trading session ends, the European session begins, followed by the North
American session and then back to the Asian session, excluding weekends.
Fluctuations in exchange rates are usually caused by actual monetary flows as well
as by expectations of changes in monetary flows caused by changes in gross
domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation (purchasing power parity theory),
interest rates (interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher
effect), budget and trade deficits or surpluses, large cross-border M&A deals and
other macroeconomic conditions.
Major news is released publicly, often on scheduled dates, so many people have
access to the same news at the same time. However, the large banks have an
important advantage; they can see their customers' order flow.
Currencies are traded against one another in pairs. Each currency pair thus
constitutes an individual trading product and is traditionally noted XXXYYY or
XXX/YYY, where XXX and YYY are the ISO 4217 international three-letter code
of the currencies involved. The first currency (XXX) is the base currency that is
quoted relative to the second currency (YYY), called the counter currency (or
quote currency). For instance, the quotation EURUSD (EUR/USD) 1.5465 is the
price of the Euro expressed in US dollars, meaning 1 euro = 1.5465 dollars. The
40

market convention is to quote most exchange rates against the USD with the US
dollar as the base currency (e.g. USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF). The exceptions
are the British pound (GBP), Australian dollar (AUD), the New Zealand dollar
(NZD) and the euro (EUR) where the USD is the counter currency (e.g. GBPUSD,
AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURUSD).
The factors affecting XXX will affect both XXXYYY and XXXZZZ. This causes
positive currency correlation between XXXYYY and XXXZZZ.
On the spot market, according to the 2013 Triennial Survey, the most heavily
traded bilateral currency pairs were:

EURUSD: 24.1%

USDJPY: 18.3%

GBPUSD (also called cable): 8.8%

and the US currency was involved in 87.0% of transactions, followed by the euro
(33.4%), the yen (23.0%), and sterling (11.8%) (see table). Volume percentages for
all individual currencies should add up to 200%, as each transaction involves two
currencies.
Trading in the euro has grown considerably since the currency's creation in
January 1999, and how long the foreign exchange market will remain dollarcentered is open to debate. Until recently, trading the euro versus a non-European
currency ZZZ would have usually involved two trades: EURUSD and USDZZZ.
The exception to this is EURJPY, which is an established traded currency pair in
the interbank spot market. As the dollar's value has eroded during 2008, interest in
using the euro as reference currency for prices in commodities (such as oil), as
well as a larger component of foreign reserves by banks, has increased
dramatically [citation needed]. Transactions in the currencies of commodityproducing countries, such as AUD, NZD, CAD, have also increased.

41

COMPANY PROFILE:
Stock Broking business of the group was started in 1995, promoted by
professional entrepreneurs and incubated by the Shriram Group through its entity,
Shriram Insight Share Brokers Ltd.
Stock Broking business commenced operations with a corporate membership in
NSE in the cash segment in 1996. Membership in the derivatives segment in the
NSE was acquired in 2003.
The Business has expanded into the commodities market with a trading-cumclearing membership in the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and the National
Commodities

and

Derivatives

Exchange

(NCDEX)

through

100%

subsidiary.Stock Broking business is firmly focused in the rapidly growing High

Networth Individual (HNI) and Retail space. Member: National Stock NSE SEBI
Reg. No. : NSE-CM [INB 230947033] | BSE-CM [INB 010947035] || NSE-F&O
[INF 230947033] ,DP [IN-DP-CDSL-293-2005] ,MCX [Membership No: 10115] |
The business has an active client base of over 1,50,000.The business operates
through 1000 branches with equal no. of trading terminals. The business model of
Stock Broking largely focused on owned branches in the initial years and has now
graduated into the franchisee mode of expansion that will cater to PAN India target
market. Rapid expansion has been made possible in this two-pronged strategy of
owned and franchised outlets and is expected to have an end-state distribution,
networking over 3000 branches. As the business starts targeting the next level of
42

mass affluent customers, expanding into wealth management and advisory space,
same would also become a key thrust area that can potentially enhance
profitability and shareholder value in the medium term.

Shiram Insight Logo:

Shiram Insight slogan:

About Shiram Insight:

The Group has also made investments in Manufacturing, Value Added Services,
Project Development, Engineering Services, Pharmaceuticals, Machined & Auto
Components, Press Dies & Sheet Metal Stamping, Packaging, Information
Technology, Property Development etc.

Genesis of the Shriram phenomenon:

The 30,000 Cr Shriram Group had its humble beginnings in the Chit Fund
business over three decadesago. R Thyagarajan, AVS Raja and T Jayaraman were
the three musketeers who ventured into these businesses. Not many in the
financial services industry thought at that time, this small Chit Funds business in
Chennai would indeed be the foundation for the financial conglomerate that
Shriram is today.
43

The Shriram Way!

Shriram Groups businesses strive to serve the largest number of common people.
Consider these: Commercial Vehicle Financing, Consumer & Enterprise Finance,
Retail Stock Broking, Life Insurance, Chit Funds and Distribution of Investment
& Insurance Products. Our foray into Non-Life (General) Insurance is again a
strong expression of this commitment.

Milestones:
Year Milestone
1974 Commencement of Business - Shriram Chits
1979 Commencement of Business - Shriram Transport Finance Co (STFC)
1982 Commencement of Business - Shriram Investments Ltd
1984 IPO of STFC
1986 Commencement of Business - Shriram City Union Finance Co (SCUF)
1988 IPO of SCUF
1989 Commencement of Business - Shriram Overseas Finance Ltd
1995 Commencement of Business- Shriram Properties Pvt Ltd
1999 Commencement of Business - Shriram Insight Share Brokers Ltd
1999 Citicorp CV financing tie up with STFC
2000 Commencement of Business - Shriram EPC Ltd
2000 Commencement of Business - TAKE Solutions Ltd
2004 Commencement of Business - Shriram Capital Ltd
2005 Entry of Chryscapital as Partner with STFC & EPC
2005 Entry of Sanlam as Life Insurance business partner and commencement of
business- Shriram Life Insurance Co
2006 Merger of Shriram Investments Ltd & Shriram Overseas Finance Ltd with
STFC
2006 Commencement of Business - Shriram Fortune Solutions Ltd
2006 Commencement of Business - Shriram Value Services
2006 Entry of TPG as STFC's partner
44

2007 Shriram EPC's JV with Leitner Technologies for Manufacture of wind

turbines
2007 EPC's foray into Air Pollution Control with Hamon through JV
2007 Orient Green Power was founded by Shriram EPC
2007 IPO of TAKE Solutions Ltd
2008 Commencement of Business - Shriram General Insurance Ltd
2008 IPO of Shriram EPC Ltd
2009 NCD Placement of Rs 10 Bn by STF

Industrial Investments:
The Group has also made investments in Manufacturing, Value Added Services,
Project Development, Engineering Services, Pharmaceuticals, Machined & Auto
Components, Press Dies & Sheet Metal Stamping, Packaging, Information
Technology, Property Development etc.

About Founder:
Mr.R Thyagarajan, Founder
Chairman of the Shriram Group of Companies - Promoted the Shriram Group
Companies in 1974. Today the group has over 15, 000 employees and operating
through 700 locations and manage funds of over 15,000 Crores in the business of
financial services including life insurance and general insurance.
Masters in Mathematics
Masters in Mathematical Statistics from Indian Statistical Institute
Associate of Chartered Insurance Institute (A.C.I.1), London
Visiting faculty of Asian Institute of Insurance, Philippines on Consequential
Loss Insurance.
By inculcating the philosophy of putting people first, he has transformed the
Shriram Group into Indias Premier Networked Financial Services Supermarket
Chain. The Network Shriram comprises over 650 Branches and Service Centers,
served by more than 6000 employees and 60,000 agents committed to ensuring
world-class customer service. The Groups aggregate turnover exceeds Rs. 5000
crores.
45

Shiram group Services :

Financial Services
Non-Financial
Services
Financial Services :
Helping Create Wealth. Empowering people through prosperity. Resulting in
inclusive growth.
The relentless pursuit of this mission, since our inception in 1974 has given the
Shriram Group our raison d'tre and our distinct identity. The Groups reputation
for effectiveness, transparency and integrity has helped it to become one of Indias
largest Financial Services Network.The Groups Financial Services Businesses
manage assets exceeding Rs.40,000 crores, has 6.5 million clients, served by
1,00,000 Agents and 36,000 employees, through 2700 Branches across India.Our
core financial services businesses are housed under the holding company Shriram
Capital Ltd:

Commercial Vehicle Finance

Life Insurance
General Insurance
Consumer & Enterprise Finance
Financial Product Distribution
Retail Stock Broking
Chit Funds

Non-Financial Services:
Shriram Group has always encouraged entrepreneurship by demonstrating
continuous apetite for investing in start-up manufacturing business.

Our Investment:
46

The Group has also made investments in Manufacturing, Value Added Services,
Project Development, Engineering Services, Pharmaceuticals, Machined & Auto
Components, Press Dies & Sheet Metal Stamping, Packaging, Information
Technology, Property Development etc.

Corporate management :
Board Of Directors:
Arun Duggal
Mr. Arun Duggal is an experienced international banker and has advised
companies on financial strategy, M&A and capital raising.
He is Chairman of Board of Directors of Shriram, Shriram Properties Limited,
Shriram City Union Finance Limited and Shriram EPC Limited. He is the Vice
Chairman of International Asset Reconstruction Company. He is on the Board of
Directors of Jubilant Energy NV., Patni Computers (Chairman - Audit Committee),
Fidelity Fund Management, LNG Petronet (Nominee Director of Asian
Development Bank), Manipal Acunova, Zuari Industries, Info Edge (India), Dish
TV India , Mundra Port & SEZ, and Hertz (India). Mr. Duggal is Advisor to IMA
(formerly Economist Intelligence Unit, India). He is a member of the Investment
Committee of Axis Private Equity. He was on the Board of Governors of the
National Institute of Bank Management. He is a Board Member and erstwhile
Chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce, India. Mr. Duggal is involved
in several initiatives in social sector. He is a founder Director of Bellwether
Microfinance Fund which provides equity capital to promising Micro Finance
organizations and helps them in capacity building. He is a Trustee of Centre for
Civil Society. New Delhi, which focuses on improving the quality and access of
education to students especially for the poor. He is Senior Advisor (Asia Pacific )
to Transparency International Berlin, which is undertaking a number of initiatives
to combat corruption problem around the world. Mr. Duggal had a 26 years career
with Bank of America, mostly in the U.S. Hong Kong and Japan. His last
assignment was as Chief Executive of Bank of America in India from 1998 to
2001. He spent ten years (1981-1990) with the New York Corporate Office of
Bank of America handling multinational relationships. From 1991-1994 as Chief
Executive of Bank of America Asia Limited, Hong Kong he looked after
Investment Banking activities for the Bank in Asia. In 1995 he moved to Tokyo as
47

the Regional Executive, managing Bank of America 's business in Japan, Australia
and Korea. From 2001 to 2003 he was Chief Financial Officer of HCL
Technologies, India. A Mechanical Engineer from the prestigious Indian Institute
of Technology, Delhi, Mr. Duggal holds an MBA from the Indian Institute of
Management, Ahmedabad. He teaches Banking & Finance at the Indian Institute
of Management, Ahmedabad as a visiting Professor.

R.Sridhar (Managing Director)

Adit Jain
S.Venkatakrishnan
Maya Shanker Verma
Mukund Manohar Chitale
Puneet Bhatia
Ranvir Dewan
Sumatiprasad M. Bafna
S.Lakshminarayanan

3.2 Services offered from Shiram Insight:

48

49

CHAPTER-4
DATA ANALYSIS
&
INTERPRETATION

Basic Forex forecast methods: Technical analysis and fundamental

analysis
This article provides insight into the two major methods of analysis used to
forecast the behavior of the Forex market. Technical analysis and fundamental
50

analysis differ greatly, but both can be useful forecast tools for the Forex trader.
They have the same goal - to predict a price or movement. The technician studies
the effect while the fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement. Many
successful traders combine a mixture of both approaches for superior results.

Technical analysis:
Technical analysis is a method of predicting price movements and future market
trends by studying charts of past market action. Technical analysis is concerned
with what has actually happened in the market, rather than what should happen
and takes into account the price of instruments and the volume of trading, and
creates charts from that data to use as the primary tool. One major advantage of
technical analysis is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and
market instruments simultaneously.

Technical analysis is built on three essential principles:

1. Market action discounts everything! This means that the actual price is a
reflection of everything that is known to the market that could affect it, for
example, supply and demand, political factors and market sentiment. However, the
pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements, not with the
reasons for any changes.
2. Prices move in trends Technical analysis is used to identify patterns of market
behavior that have long been recognized as significant. For many given patterns
there is a high probability that they will produce the expected results. Also, there
are recognized patterns that repeat themselves on a consistent basis.
3. History repeats itself Forex chart patterns have been recognized and categorized
for over 100 years and the manner in which many patterns are repeated leads to
the conclusion that human psychology changes little over time.
Forex charts are based on market action involving price. There are five categories
in Forex technical analysis theory:

Indicators (oscillators, e.g.: Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Number theory (Fibonacci numbers, Gann numbers)
Waves (Elliott wave theory)
Gaps (high-low, open-closing)
51

Trends (following moving average).

Some major technical analysis tools are described below:

Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The RSI measures the ratio of up-moves to down-moves and normalizes the
calculation so that the index is expressed in a range of 0-100. If the RSI is 70 or
greater, then the instrument is assumed to be overbought (a situation in which
prices have risen more than market expectations). An RSI of 30 or less is taken as
a signal that the instrument may be oversold (a situation in which prices have
fallen more than the market expectations).

Stochastic oscillator:
This is used to indicate overbought/oversold conditions on a scale of 0-100%. The
indicator is based on the observation that in a strong up trend, period closing
prices tend to concentrate in the higher part of the period's range. Conversely, as
prices fall in a strong down trend, closing prices tend to be near to the extreme low
of the period range. Stochastic calculations produce two lines, %K and %D that
are used to indicate overbought/oversold areas of a chart. Divergence between the
stochastic lines and the price action of the underlying instrument gives a powerful
trading signal.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD):

This indicator involves plotting two momentum lines. The MACD line is the
difference between two exponential moving averages and the signal or trigger line,
which is an exponential moving average of the difference. If the MACD and
trigger lines cross, then this is taken as a signal that a change in the trend is likely.

Number theory:
Fibonacci numbers: The Fibonacci number sequence (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34...) is
constructed by adding the first two numbers to arrive at the third. The ratio of any
52

number to the next larger number is 62%, which is a popular Fibonacci

retracement number. The inverse of 62%, which is 38%, is also used as a
Fibonacci retracement number.

Gann numbers:
W.D. Gann was a stock and a commodity trader working in the '50s who reputedly
made over $50 million in the markets. He made his fortune using methods that he
developed for trading instruments based on relationships between price movement
and time, known as time/price equivalents. There is no easy explanation for Gann's
methods, but in essence he used angles in charts to determine support and
resistance areas and predict the times of future trend changes. He also used lines in
charts to predict support and resistance areas

Waves:
Elliott wave theory: The Elliott wave theory is an approach to market analysis that
is based on repetitive wave patterns and the Fibonacci number sequence. An ideal
Elliott wave patterns shows a five-wave advance followed by a three-wave
decline.

Gaps:
Gaps are spaces left on the bar chart where no trading has taken place. An up gap
is formed when the lowest price on a trading day is higher than the highest high of
the previous day. A down gap is formed when the highest price of the day is lower
than the lowest price of the prior day. An up gap is usually a sign of market
strength, while a down gap is a sign of market weakness. A breakaway gap is a
price gap that forms on the completion of an important price pattern. It usually
signals the beginning of an important price move. A runaway gap is a price gap
that usually occurs around the mid-point of an important market trend. For that
reason, it is also called a measuring gap. An exhaustion gap is a price gap that
occurs at the end of an important trend and signals that the trend is ending
53

Trends:
A trend refers to the direction of prices. Rising peaks and troughs constitute an up
trend; falling peaks and troughs constitute a downtrend that determines the
steepness of the current trend. The breaking of a trend line usually signals a trend
reversal. Horizontal peaks and troughs characterize a trading range.

Moving averages:
Moving averages are used to smooth price information in order to confirm trends
and support and resistance levels. They are also useful in deciding on a trading
strategy, particularly in futures trading or a market with a strong up or down
trends.

The most common technical tools:

Coppock Curve is an investment tool used in technical analysis for predicting bear
market lows.
DMI (Directional Movement Indicator) is a popular technical indicator used to
determine whether or not a currency pair is trending.
Unlike the fundamental analyst, the technical analyst is not much concerned with
any of the "bigger picture" factors affecting the market, but concentrates on the
activity of that instrument's market.

Fundamental analysis:
Fundamental analysis is a method of forecasting the future price movements of a
financial instrument based on economic, political, environmental and other
relevant factors and statistics that will affect the basic supply and demand of
whatever underlies the financial instrument. In practice, many market players use
technical analysis in conjunction with fundamental analysis to determine their
trading strategy. One major advantage of technical analysis is that experienced
analysts can follow many markets and market instruments, whereas the
fundamental analyst needs to know a particular market intimately. Fundamental
analysis focuses on what ought to happen in a market. Factors involved in price
analysis: Supply and demand, seasonal cycles, weather and government policy.
54

The fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement, while the technician
studies the effect. Fundamental analysis is a macro or strategic assessment of
where a currency should be trading based on any criteria but the movement of the
currency's price itself. These criteria often include the economic condition of the
country that the currency represents, monetary policy, and other "fundamental"
elements Many profitable trades are made moments prior to or shortly after major
economic announcements.

4.1 USD/INR:
Date
Dec 01, 2014
Nov 01, 2014
Oct 01, 2014
Sep 01, 2014
Aug 01, 2014
Jul 01, 2014
Jun 01, 2014
May 01, 2014
Apr 01, 2014
Mar 01, 2014
Feb 01, 2014
Feb 01, 2014
Jan 01, 2014
Dec 01, 2014
Nov 01, 2014
Oct 01, 2014
Oct 01, 2014
Sep 01, 2014
Sep 01, 2014

Last
61.810
62.470
62.230
62.585
66.595
60.635
59.533
56.581
53.806
54.285
54.145
54.370
53.288
54.740
54.285
53.800
53.556
52.885
52.855

Open
62.400
62.230
62.585
65.706
60.635
59.533
56.581
53.806
54.285
54.370
53.294
54.145
54.740
54.266
53.791
52.885
52.855
55.526
55.526
55

High
62.670
64.030
63.460
68.700
69.225
61.905
60.755
56.765
54.950
55.140
54.421
54.620
55.383
55.276
55.876
54.206
54.015
56.026
56.026

Low
60.750
61.595
60.530
61.200
60.248
58.600
56.315
53.641
53.666
53.906
52.891
53.605
53.075
54.031
53.608
51.365
51.365
52.495
52.495

Change %
-1.06%
0.39%
-0.57%
-6.02%
9.83%
1.85%
5.22%
5.16%
-0.88%
0.26%
-0.41%
2.03%
-2.65%
0.84%
0.90%
0.46%
1.27%
0.06%
-4.81%

Aug 01, 2014

55.526
55.605
Aug 01, 2014
55.526
55.656
Jul 01, 2014
55.605
55.511
Jul 01, 2014
55.656
55.511
Jun 01, 2014
55.511
55.910
Jun 01, 2014
55.511
56.086
May 01, 2014
55.886
52.666
May 01, 2014
56.086
52.666
Apr 01, 2014
52.666
52.615
Apr 01, 2014
52.666
50.876
Mar 01, 2014
50.876
49.011
Feb 01, 2014
49.011
49.525
Jan 01, 2014
49.525
53.016
Dec 01, 2014
53.015
51.750
Highest: 69.225 Lowest: 48.570 Difference: 20.655

4.1(A) USD/INR:

INTERPRETATION:
Technical Analysis:
56

56.200
54.910
0.00%
56.200
54.910
-0.14%
56.435
54.175
-0.09%
56.435
54.175
0.26%
57.335
54.800
0.00%
57.335
54.800
-0.67%
59.935
52.550
-0.36%
59.935
52.550
6.49%
52.745
52.455
0.00%
52.867
50.450
3.52%
51.975
48.925
3.81%
49.761
48.570
-1.04%
53.306
49.225
-6.58%
53.740
51.075
0.00%
Average: 55.682 Change %: 16.59

Looking at the USD/INR daily chart above we note that the currency pair dipped
further for the week after failing to secure a recovery by mid week.Should the
bearish momentum continue, as mentioned previously, the USD/INR may target
0.86 followed by 0.85.Any bullish attempt to halt the descend will probably need
to breach the support region of 0.88.

Fundamental Analysis:
It was reported that rbi regulator instructed regional offices to increase the
evaluation of credit risks in the coal-mining industry. As the major trading partner
of INDIA, this potential growth limitation move by China will probably affect the
sentiments of the INDIAN economy.We previously reported that the Reserve Bank
of INDIA governor mentioned the acceptable price of 0.85 for the USD/INR in an
interview. This no doubt increased the bearish pressure. It is now also reported that
a central bank board member mentioned 0.8 to be fair deal. This again will
probably increase the bearish sentiment towards the Aussie dollar

4.2GBP/INR:
Highest: 104.40 Lowest: 101.40 Difference: 3.00 Average: 103.07
Change %: 0.34
5
5
0
6

57

4.2(A) GBP/INR:

58

INTERPRETATION:
Technical Analysis:
Looking at the GBP/ inr daily chart above we note that the currency pair is once
again testing the support of 92.50-93.85. As mentioned previously, a failure of this
support will probably open up an extended bearish target of 113.
Immediate resistance lies around 113. If the bulls return to push on, we may
expect 113

Fundamental Analysis:
The market sentiments seem to continue to favor the GBP and hence the
strengthening of it. Sentiments may be positive due to favorable economic
developments in the pound. For example, Novembers housing starts was revised
upwards resulting in the best figure since November 2013. Long time readers will
know that as I always mentioned, housing is an important aspect of the economy
and hence the influence on the sentiments.
Over at the pound Zone, the Indian Economic Sentiment came out worst than
expected and thus further dampening the demand for the pound currency.

59

CHAPTER-6
FINDINGS,CONCLUSION
&
SUGGESTIONS

60

5.1 FINDINGS:

Looking at the USD/INR daily chart above we note that the currency pair dipped
further for the week after failing to secure a recovery by mid week.Should the
bearish momentum continue, as mentioned previously, the USD/INR may target
0.86 followed by 0.85.Any bullish attempt to halt the descend will probably need to
breach the support region of 0.88.

It was reported that rbi regulator instructed regional offices to increase the
evaluation of credit risks in the coal-mining industry. As the major trading partner
of INDIA, this potential growth limitation move by China will probably affect the

sentiments of the INDIAN economy.

We previously reported that the Reserve Bank of INDIA governor mentioned the
acceptable price of 0.85 for the USD/INR in an interview. This no doubt increased
the bearish pressure. It is now also reported that a central bank board member
mentioned 0.8 to be fair deal. This again will probably increase the bearish
sentiment towards the Aussie dollar.

Keep close eyes on the Indian economy ,economic releases next week. The
sentiment situation is crucial for the USD/INR.
61

Looking at the GBP/ INR daily chart above we note that the currency pair is once
again testing the support of 92.50-93.85. As mentioned previously, a failure of this
support will probably open up an extended bearish target of 113. Immediate
resistance lies around 113. If the bulls return to push on, we may expect 113.

5.2 CONCLUSIONS:
Every day a virtual frenzy of market data rolls across traders global screens. Some
of those currency traders will use the data as an excuse to explain why a particular
currency (like the good old greenback) moved up, down, or sideways. This flurry
of data can include virtually anything in the markets, like trade deficits, oil prices,
stock prices, industrial production, central bank pronouncements, geopolitical
events, wheat prices, and even more. While there is no single Holy Grail indicator
to forecast currency moves, there are nevertheless two fundamental drivers. As a
currency investor, you should keep an eye on the following areas:
1. Differences in interest rates. Generally speaking, money is attracted to the
country or currency that offers the highest relative yield. This is why its important
to monitor global interest rates, and especially changes in those benchmark rates.
2. Economic growth. A healthy, fast-growing economy creates more investment
opportunities, and therefore tends to attract more capital from around the world,
which helps push up the value of the currency. Another critically important factor
that affects both interest rates and economic growth is market sentimentthat is,
what are the expectations of currency market investors? Thats the tricky part, and
it explains why its not always about interest rates, as many observers would have
you believe. If it were, you would just have to scan the globe for the countries
with the highest interest rate and then buy their currencies. Unfortunately, its not
quite that easy, but it can be rather simple if you know what youre doing. It takes
62

time and lots of real-world experience to take advantage of currency markets, but
once you have a handle on market sentiment, you can start to predict how the
market will respond to eventsand make some nice profits from this new-found
wisdom.

5.3 SUGGESTIONS:
General Suggestions For Stock Market:

Control & Conquer your Mind to Win in the Markets

Always invest your money in Installment But Never invest more than 8% of your
capital in one stock.

Stock market is volatile market so Always Book Partial Profit whenever you get the
chance.

Keep 25% of your capital in spare, it will always help you in volatile stock market.

Suggestion For Day Traders & Week Traders:

If you want to earn money from stock market, Stop Lose is Really very important,
Never ever trade without stop lose

Do not overtrade. "Never trade with money u cannot afford to loose"

Suggestions For Short Medium Term Investor:

Do not trade on rumors.

Do not trade in all currencies

Its better to buy the wrong stocks at the right time than to buy at the right at
the wrong time.

Trade with the trends rather than trying to pick tops and bottoms.

Suggestions For Long Term Investor:

Never chase a trend .

63

Buy when markets are in the grip of panic. Buy when everyone is selling and sell
when everyone buys.

Only buy fundamentally strong currency, which are undervalued.

Avoid loss-making currencies.

candle stick analysis are the key for currency forecasting .

BIBILOGRAPHY

64

Text Books :

Punithavathy Pandia,Currency and Portfolio Management,Vikas Publications.

V.A.Avadhani,Analysis and Forex Management,Himalaya Publications.
Gordan and Natarajan,Financial Markets and Services,Himalaya Publications.
Shashi K Guptha and R.K Sharma,Financial Management,Kalyani Publications.

Journals:

Journal of Economic Survey.

Journals of Global Economy & Finance.
FOREX Journal.
Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences
South Asia Economic Journal

Newspapers:

Business Line

Economic Times

Financial Chronicle

The Hindu

65

Websites :

www.mbaliveprojects.info
www.goforex.com
www.moneycontrol.com
www.indiainfoline.com
www.sebi.gov.in
www.yahoofinance.com
www.onlinestockholding
ww w.moneycontrol.com

66