Natural Selection Simulation

Introduction
Evolution is a process that changes the genetic makeup of a population over time.
Presumably, those genetic changes are reflected in changes in the phenotypic makeup (the
observable characteristics) of the population. This exercise will demonstrate the effect of natural
selection on the frequencies of three populations of beetles. Natural selection, as formulated
by Charles Darwin in Origin of Species (1859) is the most important cause of evolution.
An individuals ability to reproduce depends on its ability to survive. If all gene variations
conferred on every individual the same capability to survive and reproduce, then the composition
of a population would never change. If a variation of a characteristic increases an individuals
ability to survive or allows it to have more offspring, that variation will be naturally selected.
Darwin reasoned that the environment controlled in what plant and animal breeders controlled
artificially. Given an overproduction of offspring, natural variation within a species and limited
resources, the environment would select for those individuals whose traits would enable a
higher chance of survival and hence more offspring in the next generation.
Purpose:
In this activity we will use three different beans to represent heritable variations in beetle
morphology (size and coloration of carapace). These three beetle morphs will be studied in two
different habitats.
Procedure:
1. With a partner, count out exactly 10 lima, pinto, and kidney beans each. These
represent each beetle type; the three types are equally common initially.
2. You will choose two habitats and perform the procedure the same way in each one.
Chose 2 different colored substrates from this list: sidewalk, asphalt, brick, sand, dirt,
or gravel.
3. Scatter your beans randomly over an area of approximately one square meter. This will
be your predator foraging area. The beans must be scattered (tossed), NOT dumped in
a small pile.
4. One person will be the designated predator for the habitat. (Switch roles for the second
habitat). The predator will eat (pick up) exactly 20 beans. Remember to think like a
predator, i.e., pick up what you see first as quickly as you can. Place the 20 beans
picked up in the plastic bag provided. Leave the rest of the beans on the ground. They
have survived the predator and will reproduce (their offspring will be represented by
adding beans to adjust the population size back to 30 (see step 7)
5. Count the number of each bean collected (make sure you have exactly 20) and record
the numbers on line B.
6. Subtract the number of each kind eaten (line B) from t he number you started with (line
A), to obtain the number of survivors (line C).
7. Assume that each survivor has two offspring. Record those values in line D. These are
the numbers of each bean that need to be scattered with the survivors to bring the
population back up to exactly 30. Count out and scatter the required number of beans
into the same area as you P1 survivors. Now complete line A by adding lines C and D.
These are your P2 or second generation populations.
8. Repeat steps four through seven two more times and complete the table for Habitat #
1. Remember, the offspring values tell you how many beans of each type need to be
scattered into your predator foraging area.

9. Pick up all your beans when you are finished. Repeat the entire procedure in Habitat #
2.
Group Names____________________________________________________________________________________

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M

P1
eaten
survivors
(A-B)
offspring
(2C)
P2 (C+D)
eaten
survivors
(E-F)
offspring
(2G)
P3 (G+H)
eaten
survivors
(I J)
offspring
(2K)
P4 (K+L)

Summary of Beetle Captures

Habitat # 1
LIMA
PINTO KIDNE TOTAL LIMA
Y
30
20
10

Habitat # 2
PINTO
KIDNE
Y

TOTAL
30
20
10

20

20

30
20
10

30
20
10

20

20

30
20
10

30
20
10

20

20

30

30

Chi Square Calculations:

Discussion and Conclusion:

1. What was the Chi Square value you obtained for habitat #1 and was it statistically
significant? Did evolution occur? Explain.

2. What was the Chi Square value you obtained for habitat #1 and was it statistically
significant? Did evolution occur? Explain.

3. Do your answers to questions 1 and 2 support what you observed in the field? Explain.

We will determine whether evolution has occurred by comparing the frequencies of each bean
morph at the beginning and at the end of our predation experiment. We will use a Chi Square
Statistic (X2) to determine whether or not our final frequencies are significantly different from our
initial ones.
o = observed count in a category
e = expected count in a category
Chi Square = (o-e)2
= to sum for each category
e
The Chi square value that you get is located on the Chi Square table below. The degrees of
freedom are one less than the number of phenotypic categories. We have three phenotypic
categories (the three bean morphs).

df

0.9

0.1

0.05

0.025

0.01

0.005

0.016

2.706

3.841

5.024

6.635

7.879

0.211

4.605

5.991

7.378

9.21

10.597

0.584

6.251

7.815

9.348

11.345

12.838

1.064

7.779

9.488

11.143

13.277

14.86

1.61

9.236

11.07

12.833

15.086

16.75

2.204

10.645

12.592

14.449

16.812

18.548

2.833

12.017

14.067

16.013

18.475

20.278

3.49

13.362

15.507

17.535

20.09

21.955

4.168

14.684

16.919

19.023

21.666

23.589

A probability of less than .05 tells you that there is less than a 5% chance that the differences
between our beginning and ending counts could be due to random variation. This means that
there is a 95% probability that the differences are not due to random factors but are the result of
our experiment.
Any statistic can only test two hypotheses, the null hypothesis of no difference and the
alternative hypothesis of significant difference. These statistical hypotheses can be
summarized below:

Ho (the null hypothesis): there is no difference between our beginning and ending counts
H1 (the alternative hypothesis): there is a statistically significant difference between our
beginning and ending counts.
**NOTE: In science, we can never prove that any hypothesis is true since there are always more
data to gather, we can only prove hypotheses to be false.
A statistical hypothesis is not the same as an experimental hypothesis: our experimental
hypothesis involves the role of predation and habitat in natural selection. What hypotheses were
tested in this simulation?