ST2054 Problem Set 2 Due 5pm 23rd of October 2016

To be handed up to the brown box at the maths oce, by 5pm Monday

the 23rd of October, by all students.
For those taking

, do only questions

ST6003

2, 3, 5

and 7.

For those taking all other courses, do all questions.

Question 1

Suppose that A, B and C are three independent events such that

P (A) = 41 , P (B) = 13 and P (C) = 21 . Find the probability that none
of these events will occur. Also, nd the probability that exactly one of
these events will occur.
Question 2

Suppose that A, B and C are three events such that A, B are

disjoint, A and C are independent, and also B and C are independent. Suppose also that 4P (A) = 2P (B) = P (C) > 0, and that
P (AU BU C) = 5P (A). Determine the value of P (A).
Question 3

The probability that any child in a certain family will have blue eyes
is 41 , and this feature is inherited independently by each child in the
family. If there are ve children in the family, and it is known that at
least one of the children has blue eyes, nd the probability that at least
two children have blue eyes.
Question 4

There are three coins in a bag. One coin has two heads, one has
two tails and the third coin is a fair coin with one head and one tail. A
coin is selected at random, is then tossed and the outcome is a head.
a) Find the probability that the selected coin has two heads.
b) If the selected coin is to be tossed a second time, nd the probability that the outcome will again be a head.
Explain your analysis each time.
1

Question 5

Whenever an insurance company accepts a new customer for accident insurance (with a one-year term) it classies the customer as lowrisk or high-risk. Suppose that the company reckons that the probability
of an accident occurring during the year is 0.1 for a low-risk person and
0.35 for a high-risk person. Assume that 25% of accepted customers for
this accident insurance are low-risk and the rest are high-risk. Consider
Mr. Z, randomly-selected from accepted customers.
a) Find the probability that Mr. Z has an accident during the year.
b) Assuming that Mr. Z has an accident nd the probability that
Mr. Z is a low-risk person.
c) Consider two successive years, and suppose that the probabilities
remain the same for these years, and also that for any particular customer, the chances of an accident in year 2 are independent of whether
an accident occurred in year 1. Find the probability that Mr. Z will
have an accident in both years.
d) With regard to 3., nd the probability that Mr. Z is a high-risk
person, given that he had an accident in both years.
Question 6

A box contains 10 dice, of which 5 are crooked and produce 6 with

probability 0.4. The other 5 dice are fair. A die is selected at random
from the box, and thrown twice - producing a 6 each time. Find the
probability that this die is crooked.
Question 7

The police chief of a metropolitan are was reviewing the statistics

on the number of pedestrian fatalities in the past year. Of a total of
12 deaths, he noted that 6 were killed while crossing with the proper
light and 6 were killed in crossing the street against a red light. Could
the police chief conclude that it was just as dangerous to obey trac
signals in crossing the street as it was to disregard them? Explain.