Queensland Spatial Conference 2008 17-19 July 2008, Gold Coast

Global Warning: Whats Happening In Paradise?

PREDICTIVE MAPPING OF BLACKBERRY IN THE CONDAMINE

CATCHMENT USING LOGISTIC REGRESSION AND SPATIAL ANALYSIS
A. Apan1, N. Wells1, K. Reardon-Smith1, L. Richardson2, K. McDougall1 and B. Basnet1
Australian Centre for Sustainable Catchments & Faculty of Engineering and Surveying
University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba QLD 4350
Phone: 07 4631 1386, Email: apana@usq.edu.au
2
Condamine Alliance
PO Box 3477, Toowoomba Village Fair QLD 4350

Abstract
The development of control strategies for noxious weeds depends on reliable information about the location and extent
of weed species. Consequently, there is a need to develop mapping and monitoring techniques that are accurate, costeffective and reliable. This paper investigated predictive modelling and mapping techniques for blackberry (Rubus
fruticosus agg.) weed in the Condamine Catchment. In all, 19 bio-physical factors were assessed, of which a subset was
analysed by logistic regression using SPSS. The model calculated the probability of a binary dependent variable (i.e.
presence of weed vs. absence of weed) in response to the above independent (bio-physical) variables.
The output model was brought into ArcGISs Spatial Analyst to produce the predictive map. The factors found to be
significant in the model were a) distance from stream, b) foliage projective cover, c) elevation, and d) distance from
NSW border. The use of logistic regression generated maps depicting the probability of blackberry occurrence with a
model accuracy of greater than 90%. The predicted maps offer relevant information that could be useful to land
planners and decision-makers on where to target or prioritise weed control strategies, or for other aspects of weed
management.

Introduction
Weeds cause serious environmental problems, economic losses and social impacts. In Australia, the cost to the economy

from the agricultural impacts of weeds is approximately $4 billion per annum (Sinden et al., 2005; Natural Resource
Management Ministerial Council, 2006). The cost to nature conservation, tourism and landscape amenity, although not
quantified by a formal study, is thought to be of similar magnitude. Thus, weeds and their impacts should be managed
sensibly, and the prevention and control strategies must be formulated comprehensively with the aid of reliable
information.
Geographic information systems (GIS) offer useful tools to support weed control and management (e.g. Gillham et al.,
2004; Main et al., 2004; Prather and Callihan, 1993). Because weeds grow in a given geographical location and their
spread is influenced by environmental factors that vary spatially, the use of GIS for weed mapping, assessment and
monitoring has increased significantly in the last 10 years. The various studies and applications may be categorised into
four broad aspects: a) predicting weed invasion, b) mapping and monitoring, c) educating the public (e.g. through 3D
visualisations), and d) development of management plans (USDA Forest Service RSAC, 2007).
Despite the numerous studies on predictive mapping of weeds, it is apparent from the literature that no single model can
be used to predict weed invasion for every occasion. This supports the notion that there is no one-size-fits-all model
for predicting weed invasion. As there are many hundreds of weeds worldwide (e.g. 287 species are listed in the
Australias weed identification tool at http://www.weeds.org.au/) which have diverse habitat characteristics, it will be
prudent to adapt a model or develop a new one, for a particular weed species in a given area. In this context, this study
focused on predictive mapping of blackberry using logistic regression analysis. Logistic regression can be used to
describe the relationship of several independent variables to a dichotomous dependent variable such as presence and
absence (Hosmer and Lemeshow, 2000), as is the case for most weeds.
Although several studies pertaining to predictive weed mapping have been conducted in Australia (see for example,
Crossman and Bass (2008); Dunlop et al., 2006; Chiou and Yu, 2005), no study has been reported on predictive
mapping of blackberry (in contrast to detection and mapping using remote sensing, e.g. Dehaan, et al., 2007; Ullah, et
al., 1989). While there is nothing particularly novel about using GIS and logistic regression for spatial analysis of weed
species, their applications for blackberry mapping have never been exploited. Hence, the objectives of this study were
to: a) to characterise the habitat of blackberry in a given area, and b) to develop a spatially explicit predictive model of
blackberry using logistic regression and GIS.

Paper No. 0043

Queensland Spatial Conference 2008 17-19 July 2008, Gold Coast

Global Warning: Whats Happening In Paradise?

Blackberry and Predictive Modelling Using Logistic Regression

Blackberry (Rubus fruticosus agg.) is a perennial, semi-deciduous shrub with prickly stems (canes), often forming
mounds (Figure 1) (Evans et al., 2007). First year canes are mostly reddish-purple where exposed, and green when not
exposed. They may be with or without hairs. Its leaf mostly consists of five distinct leaflets. Flowers are white or pink,
while the fruits are initially green and become red to black when ripe. Blackberry can reproduce by both seed and
vegetative means. Birds, mammals and water easily disperse the fruits, while canes in contact with the ground, can root
and produce new plants. Blackberry can be found throughout temperate Australia, in areas where the annual rainfall
exceeds 700 mm. In Queensland, it occurs in the Stanthorpe, Warwick, Killarney and Toowoomba areas (NRW,
2006a).

Figure 1. Sample photographs of blackberry collected in July 2007, Warwick and Cambooya area.
In Australia, blackberry has been declared a weed of national significance (WONS) (Thorp and Lynch, 2000). It is
ranked 3rd out of the 20 species included in the WONSs inaugural list, based on its invasiveness, impacts, potential for
spread, and socioeconomic and environmental impacts. The weed colonises pasture, orchards and forest lands and often
forms impenetrable thickets and mounds that prevent access by animals and people for productive or recreational use.
Thus, strategies for the control and prevention of blackberry should be a part of sound land management.
Predicting weed invasion is an important task for weed management. The development of preventive and control
strategies depends on information about the weeds current location and potential invasion. Consequently, mapping and
spatial modelling efforts to predict weed invasion (also called susceptibility mapping or risk mapping) have
increased in recent years. A wide array of modelling techniques has been developed and applied to specific weeds and
localities including: a) linear or weighted linear combination modelling (e.g. Gillham et al., 2004), b) use of genetic
algorithm (e.g. Raimundo et al., 2007), c) ecological niche modeling (Peterson et al., 2003), d) rule-base fuzzy logic
(e.g. Chiou and Yu, 2005), and e) logistic regression (e.g. Collingham et al., 2000).
Logistic regression is a model that can be used to predict the probability of occurrence of an event as a function of the
independent variables. It is useful when the observed outcome is restricted to two values, which usually represent the
occurrence or non-occurrence (usually coded as 1 or 0, respectively) of an outcome event (Hosmer and Lemeshow,
2000). Logistic regression does not assume that the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent
variable is linear, and nor does it assume that the dependent variable is normally distributed. Other modelling
approaches for dichotomous dependent variables are also possible, but logistic regression is by far the most popular
(Kleinbaum and Klein, 2002). This is because the model provides an estimate that must lie in the range between zero
and one, and the S-shape of the logistic function is considered to be widely applicable in many multivariate analyses.

Paper No. 0043

Queensland Spatial Conference 2008 17-19 July 2008, Gold Coast

Global Warning: Whats Happening In Paradise?

Methods
The Study Area and Data Acquisition
The study area covers the Condamine Catchment (Figure 2). It is located west of the Great Dividing Range in southern
Queensland, covering an area of 24,434 km2. The area has a highly variable subtropical climate, with average annual
rainfall of 682-955-mm, and average temperatures ranging from 3C to 30C (NRW, 2006b). The vegetation in the
basalt hills is dominated by mountain coolibah, narrow-leaved ironbark and silver leaf ironbark. In soils associated with
sandstone areas, patches of brigalow/belah, poplar box, ironbark, bulloak and cypress pine are common. The extensive
use of the area for agriculture has resulted in the loss of much of the original vegetation (<30% remains) (NRW,
2006b).
Datasets relating to the location of blackberry were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agencys (EPA)
WildNet database (EPA, 2007) and the Department of Natural Resources and Water (NRW) computer-based pest
management system, PestInfo (NRW, 2007). Additional data points were also collected during the field reconnaissance
survey in the Warwick and Cambooya shires, where blackberry patches are known to occur. Using GIS, the spatial
distribution of the weed was tested for patterns of clustering, dispersion, or randomness over the catchment study area.
The Average Nearest Neighbour Distance tool in ArcGIS calculated a nearest neighbour index based on the average
distance from each feature to its nearest neighbouring feature.
For thematic layers representing the habitat of blackberry or the relevant site factors of the area, several digital maps
were acquired from different sources (Table 1). The selection of these site factors was based from the literature (e.g.
Evans et al., 2007; CRC for Australian Weed Management, 2003) and interviews with local pest management officers
(e.g. Dight, personal communication, 20 July 2007).
Table 1. Spatial datasets acquired for the study
Map of Site Factors
1. Distance from road
2. Distance from stream
3. Distance from water body
(dams and lakes)
4. Distance from NSW border

Primary Data Source

Road Map (PSMA)
Drainage Map (GA)
Water Body (NRW)

Key Processing to Generate Dataset

Buffering in raster (Euclidean distance)
Buffering in raster (Euclidean distance)
Buffering in raster (Euclidean distance)

Outline Map of Australia (GA)

5. Foliage Projective Cover

(FPC)
6. Distance from FPC Value
of >= 40%
7. Distance from FPC Value
of <= 12%
8. Elevation
9. Slope
10. Aspect
11. Landform

Foliage Projective Cover (NRW)

Select feature; buffering in raster (Euclidean

distance)
None

DEM (NRW)
DEM (NRW)
DEM (NRW)
DEM (NRW)

12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.

Soil Map (CSIRO)

Rainfall (BoM)
Geology (GA)
Land cover (NRW)
Land use (NRW)
Land use (NRW)
DCDB (NRW)
Regional ecosystems (EPA)

Soils
Rainfall
Geology
Land cover
Land use (Level 1)
Land use (Level 2)
Tenure
Regional ecosystems

Foliage Projective Cover (NRW)

Foliage Projective Cover (NRW)

Select feature; buffering in raster (Euclidean

distance)
Select feature; buffering in raster (Euclidean
distance)
Fill sink cells
Calculate slope in percent
Calculate aspect
Calculate using a third-party ArcView
extension
None
Reclassify in raster
None
None
Select feature
Select feature
Select feature
Select feature

PSMAPublic Sector Mapping Agencies, GAGeoscience Australia, NRWQueensland Department of Natural Resources and Water,
EPAQueensland Environmental Protection Agency, CSIROCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, DEM
Digital Elevation Model, DCDBDigital Cadastral Data Base, BoMBureau of Meteorology

Data Pre-processing and Analysis

Since many datasets were received from disparate sources, in various formats and extent, the pre-processing of the data
was essential. The pre-processing tasks included projection and coordinate transformation, clipping, vector-to-raster
conversion, masking, feature selection, buffering, grid resampling, reclassification, etc. The datasets were processed
within ArcGIS 9.2 using the Spatial Analyst extension. The pixel size was set to 25m x 25m, with 1:100,000 as the
approximate mapping scale. Most of the thematic maps (e.g. FPC, land cover, land use, DEM, etc.) used in the
predictive mapping were captured at this map scale.

Paper No. 0043

Queensland Spatial Conference 2008 17-19 July 2008, Gold Coast

Global Warning: Whats Happening In Paradise?

Figure 2. Location map of the study area for blackberry predictive mapping.

The spatial datasets and field data were intersected (using Spatial Analysts sample operation) to produce a table
that showed the grid cell value of each attribute for each sample weed location (Figure 3). This produced a data array of
911 samples x 19 variables or attributes. Frequency tables for each variable were generated to enable the analysis of the
habitat characteristics of blackberry.
A total of 2,277 randomly selected sample points from the no weed and weed pool were selected. Out of this, 1,592
samples (70% of the total) were used as a training set for the analysis. The remaining 685 samples (30% of the total)
were used as a test or validation set. For the training set samples, the attributes of independent variables were compiled
to create a data array in Microsoft Excel. The number of independent variables was reduced to 10, based on a) results of
the frequency table analysis, b) interpretation of relevant literature, and c) constraint in data processing due to scale of
measurement (i.e. categorical data for land use, geology, etc). SPSS software had the ability to handle categorical data
for logistic regression, but the number of classes for categorical variables was too large to warrant a sensible approach.

Paper No. 0043

Queensland Spatial Conference 2008 17-19 July 2008, Gold Coast

Global Warning: Whats Happening In Paradise?

Spatial Datasets
(19 thematic raster
layers)

Field Data of
Blackberry
(point vector layer)
Intersect
Table

Literature

Frequency analysis
Knowledge of
site attributes
Select thematic layers
Selected Datasets
(10 layers)
Logistic regression
Statistical Model
(Equation with 4 X-variables)
Apply equation in GIS
Accuracy
assessment

Predictive Map of Blackberry

Figure 3. Major tasks and datasets in the predictive mapping blackberry

For the case of a single independent variable, the logistic regression model can be written as:
1
Prob (event) =
-( 0 + 1X)
1+ e
where Prob (event) is the probability of an event occurring, 0 and 1 are coefficients estimated from the data, X is the
independent variable, and e is the base of the natural logarithms (approximately 2.718). For more than one independent
variable, the model can be written as:
1
Prob (event) =
1 + e-Z
where Z is the linear combination, Z = 0 + 1X1 + 2X2 + ... + pXp
In linear regression, the parameters of the model are estimated using the least squares method. For logistic regression,
the parameters of the model are estimated using the maximum-likelihood method (Hosmer and Lemeshow, 2000). As a
nonlinear model, the logistic regression model requires an iterative algorithm necessary for parameter estimation.
The logistic regression was executed for the data array using the forward likelihood ratio method. After a series of
runs that tested each of the 10 variables, and an assessment of their related statistics, a model (an equation) was finally
selected. The equation was implemented using ArcGIS Spatial Analyst raster calculator to produce the predictive map
in grid format.
Validation and Accuracy Assessment
There are several measures for evaluating the logistic regression model. In this part of the study, the following tests or
measures suggested by Garson (1998) were employed to analyse the results in various aspects:

Paper No. 0043

Queensland Spatial Conference 2008 17-19 July 2008, Gold Coast

Global Warning: Whats Happening In Paradise?

Hosmer and Lemeshow chi-square test of goodness of fit. This is the recommended test for overall fit of a
logistic regression model. It is considered more robust than the traditional chi-square test. A finding of nonsignificance indicates that the model adequately fits the data.

Omnibus tests of model coefficients. This test uses the traditional chi-square method to find out whether the
model with the predictors is significantly different from the model with only the intercept. A finding of
significance indicates that there is adequate fit of the data to the model. This means that at least one of the
predictors is significantly related to the response variable.

Nagelkerke's R2. This is a pseudo r-squared statistic, as logistic regression does not have an equivalent to the
R-squared that is found in ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The Nagelkerke's R2 values range from 0 to
1. It is not a goodness-of-fit test, but rather attempts to measure strength of association.

Classification tables. These are the 2 x 2 tables that tally correct and incorrect estimates. In a perfect model, all
cases will be on the diagonal and the overall percent correct will be 100%.

Results and Discussion

Analysis of Blackberry Distribution and Site Factors
From the amalgamation of various datasets, a spatial database containing a total of 911 points of blackberry locations
was built (Figure 4). From the resulting map, it was apparent that the areas with high concentration of blackberry were
located near the Queensland/New South Wales border near Dalveen, within the Warwick shire. There were sporadic
patches found around Killarney, Warwick and Main Range National Park, within Cambooya shire, and around
Toowoomba.
The results of the ArcGISs Average Nearest Neighbour Distance test indicated that there was a clustering (rather than
dispersed or random distribution) of blackberry in the catchment. With the Nearest Neighbour Ratio of 0.09, these
values indicated that there is less than 1% likelihood that this clustered pattern could be the result of a random chance.

Figure 4. Existing mapped locations of blackberry.

Paper No. 0043

Queensland Spatial Conference 2008 17-19 July 2008, Gold Coast

Global Warning: Whats Happening In Paradise?

The analysis of frequency tables (n=911) indicated that certain site factors have a more defined frequency class
distribution than others. For instance, the rainfall variable has a more distinct range of values in terms of blackberry
occurrence than geology. By and large, the variables that have less definite groupings of values were geology, distance
from lakes and dams, and landform. Similarly, some classes or categories within a variable exhibited some clustering,
and the following results can be summarised in Table 2 (see also selected charts in Figure 5):
Table 2. Characteristics of selected site factors where blackberry was mapped
Factor

Majority
70% of the 911 blackberry sightings were found within the 500m road
buffer
50% were within the 500m stream buffer, or 81% for 1000m
92% within the 10km distance from the NSW border
78% had FPC of 0%, i.e. basically non-vegetated
94% within 1km of high-density foliage vegetation, i.e. FPC >= 40%
96% within 500m of low-density foliage vegetation, i.e. FPC <= 12%
90% found in areas with elevation ranging from 750-925m.
72% found in slope <= 5%, or 92% found in slope <=10%.
Mostly found in slopes facing NE and NW directions.
97% found in areas classed as yellow/brown sodosols
99% found in areas with rainfall between 650-950mm.
Majority found in pasture (74%) and woody vegetation (22%)
97% found in land use classified as grazing natural vegetation
Majority found in freehold land (95%) and road/water reserve (4%)
91% found in non-remnant class

Distance from road

Distance from stream
Distance from NSW border
Foliage Projective Cover (FPC)
Distance from FPC Value of >= 40%
Distance from FPC Value of <= 12%
Elevation
Slope
Aspect
Soils
Rainfall
Land cover
Land use (Level 2)
Tenure
Regional ecosystems

Histogram of Blackberry Occurrence

Histogram of Blackberry Occurrence

120

250

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

F 200
r
e
150
q
u
e 100
n
c
y 50

100
80
60
40
20

Distance(m) from Stream

More

29000

27500

26000

24500

23000

21500

20000

18500

17000

15500

14000

12500

9500

Distance(m) from NSW Border

Histogram of Blackberry Occurrence

Histogram of Blackberry Occurrence

300

800
700

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

11000

8000

6500

5000

3500

500

2700

2500

2300

2100

1900

1700

1500

1300

900

1100

700

500

300

100

2000

250

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

600
500
400
300
200

200
150
100
50

100
1100

1000
29

1050

950

900

850

800

750

Elevation(m)

Histogram of Blackberry Occurrence

Histogram of Blackberry Occurrence

300

180
160

250

F
r 200
e
q
u 150
e
n 100
c
y 50

F 140
r
120
e
q 100
u
e 80
n
60
c
y 40
20

Elevation(m)

33

31

25

23

21

19

17

15

13

11

0
1

1100

1050

1000

950

900

850

800

750

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

Paper No. 0043

27

Foliage Projective Cover (%)

700

650

600

550

500

450

72

68

64

60

56

52

48

44

40

36

32

28

24

20

16

12

400

Slope(%)

Queensland Spatial Conference 2008 17-19 July 2008, Gold Coast

Global Warning: Whats Happening In Paradise?

Histogram of Blackberry Occurrence

Histogram of Blackberry Occurrence

450

40

400

35
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

30
25
20
15
10

350
300
250
200
150
100
50

0
360

340

320

300

280

260

240

220

200

180

160

140

120

80

100

60

40

20

1250

1150

1050

950

850

750

650

550

450

Isohyet / Rainfall(mm)

Aspect (N=0; E=90; S=180; W=270)

Histogram of Blackberry Occurrence

Histogram of Blackberry Occurrence

1000

800

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

350

250

150

50

900

700

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

600
500
400
300
200
100

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100

Grazing
natural
vegetation

Residential

Services

Irrigated
cropping

Nature
conservation

Other
minimal use

Cropping

Woody Veg Regrowth

Woody Veg
(Native Veg)

Bare

Settlement

Crop-Hort.

CropBroadacre

Pasture

Land Cover

Land Use (Level 2)

Figure 5. Histogram of selected variables (site factors) of blackberry habitat

The results in Table 2 need to be interpreted carefully to avoid generating unfounded conclusions about the site factors
associated with blackberry invasion. For instance, while 70% of the 911 blackberry sightings in the study area were
found within the 500m road buffer, it will be unsound to make a definitive claim that nearness to the road is a positive
factor for blackberry occurrence. This result may be due to biases in sample collection since access by road is
convenient during fieldwork. Or perhaps the people reported the location of blackberry (and later included to the
databases that we used) found the weed as they travel along the road, or in their farms or pasture lands that are close to
roads. Conversely, roads may indeed play a significant role due to the habitat preferences of the weeds animal vectors
(e.g. foxes, birds, etc.), or perhaps the sparsely vegetated gap near road reserves are conducive to blackberry growth.
On the other hand, it is apparent that some site factors, e.g. rainfall, distance from NSW border, and land use, appear to
have stronger relationships based on the findings of this study, and are supported by theoretical expectations or by other
studies. For example, Evans et al. (2007) indicated that blackberry grows in wetter areas of Australia where rainfall
exceeds 700 mm. This was confirmed by the result of our study, as about 99% of blackberry sightings were in areas that
received mean annual rainfall of between 650-950mm. Moreover, Evans et al. (2007) also indicated that blackberry
occurred in disturbed areas. Our study found that 97% of blackberry sightings were found in land use classified as
grazing natural vegetation, which is primarily a disturbed or altered ecosystem.
Predictive Mapping Using Logistic Regression
The results of logistic regression (Table 3) indicated that the models estimates fit the data at an acceptable level. Based
on the Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, the chi-square value is a low 2.95, with significance value of 0.938
(p>0.05; not significant) indicating a very good fit to the data and, therefore, a good overall model fit (Hosmer and
Lemeshow, 2000). This was supported by the omnibus tests of model coefficients. The test resulted in a high chi-square
value and a significance of less than 0.05. Table 4 shows that the chi-square value is high (1772.024), with significance
value of 0.00.
The value of Nagelkerke's R2 is also very high, i.e. 0.91 (Table 5). Although this statistic does not measure the goodness
of fit of the model, Nagelkerke's R2 provides an indication of how useful the explanatory variables are in predicting the
response variable. The value of 0.91 indicates that the model is useful in predicting the presence and absence of
blackberry. This was supported by the classification table results that produced a very high accuracy of 95.6%. For our
logistic regression model, the independent variables finally selected were distance from the stream, distance from the
NSW border, foliage projective cover and elevation. Thus the equation used in ArcGIS was:

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Queensland Spatial Conference 2008 17-19 July 2008, Gold Coast

Global Warning: Whats Happening In Paradise?

Pred_bberry = 1 div (1 + (exp ( - (-7.751 + (-.002 * [dist_stream]) + (.000 * [dist_border]) + (-.037 *

[fpc]) + (.015 * [elev])))))
Where Pred_bberyy = the probability of blackberry occurrence; div = divided by; exp = exponent; dist_stream
= distance from stream; dist_border = distance from NSW border; fpc = foliage projective cover; and elev =
elevation.
The output was a map (Figure 6) in raster format, where each cell has a value that can range from 0 to 1, with 1 as the
highest probability of blackberry occurrence.
Table 3. Results of the Hosmer and Lemeshow Test
Step
1

Chi-square
22.638

df
8

Sig.
.004

18.223

.020

7.968

.437

2.946

.938

Table 4. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients

Step 4

Sig.
.000

Block

1772.024

.000

Model

1772.024

.000

Step

Chi-square
24.419

df

Table 5. Model Summary

Step
4

-2 Log
likelihood
371.007

Cox & Snell

R Square
.671

Nagelkerke R
Square
.908

Using the test set samples, the accuracy of the predictive model in ArcGIS was 96%. The modelling results show that
the majority of the high-to-very-high (arbitrarily, >0.70) probability areas are located in the lower part and eastern edge
of the catchment, particularly within the Warwick shire (Figure 6).
The predicted map of blackberry generated from this project has potential uses for weed management. For instance, an
assessment of the data suggests that there are about 231,605 ha in the Condamine Catchment that are highly
susceptible to blackberry infestation. The map indicates that they are concentrated in southern and eastern parts of the
catchment. Moreover, when the predicted map was overlaid with a land use map, a table of information could be
summarised to indicate the specific land uses where the threat of blackberry infestation may occur. The result indicated
that the grazing natural vegetation class accounts for the majority (71.7%) of the total area under consideration.
Interestingly, about 23,569 ha of nature conservation and other minimal use (= mostly nature refuge) were also
flagged as highly susceptible. This information may assist land planners and decision-makers on where to target or
prioritise weed control strategies.

Paper No. 0043

Queensland Spatial Conference 2008 17-19 July 2008, Gold Coast

Global Warning: Whats Happening In Paradise?

Figure 6. Actual vs. predicted map (continuous surface values) of blackberry

Conclusions
The mapped locations of blackberry showed that the weed is located in the lower part and eastern edge of the
catchment. The test indicated that the weed exhibited a clustered (rather than dispersed or randomly distributed) spatial
pattern. Certain site factors have more defined frequency class distribution than others. Explanatory variables, such as
rainfall, distance from NSW border, and land use, showed higher degrees of association with the response variable
(presence of blackberry).
Logistic regression was found useful for the predictive mapping of blackberry, and thus generated a map depicting the
probability of occurrence of the weed. The independent variables finally selected were distance from the stream,
distance from the NSW border, foliage projective cover and elevation. The predictive map offers potential uses
that may be constructive in developing weed prevention and control strategies.
This study recommends the following:
Conduct more studies on the relationships between site factors and blackberry occurrence.
Enhance the approach to predictive weed mapping and modeling by incorporating additional field data of weed
occurrence, so that other relevant site parameters can be included (or excluded) in the model.
Test other modelling techniques, such as genetic algorithm, fuzzy logic, etc.
Assess how the mapping and modeling approach developed in this study can be extended or adapted to other
priority weeds in the catchment.

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Queensland Spatial Conference 2008 17-19 July 2008, Gold Coast

Global Warning: Whats Happening In Paradise?

Acknowledgements
We thank the Condamine Alliance for funding this project. Many thanks to pest-weed management officers and
Landcare staff from various shires who shared with us their data and local knowledge. Special mention to Mr. Greg
Dight, Warwick Shire Council. We thank the Environmental Protection Agency and Queensland Department of Natural
Resources and Water for providing data on blackberry occurrences. The two anonymous reviewers provided
constructive comments and suggestions.

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