PREFACE

Praise Allah for blessing and guidance of His grace we can finish this paper. This paper proposed
to meet the task subjects Indonesian Economy.
We realize this paper is still far from perfection. Therefore, criticism and constructive
suggestions are expected in order to make the paper better.
Hopefully this paper can provide useful information to readers as well as useful for knowledge
development and improvement of knowledge for us all.

Bandar Lampung, March 27, 2015

author

CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Currently the demand for air tickets by consumers is very high. This happens because the air
transport sangatdiminati crowds.
This means that the airline should be able to meet all the needs of its customers. With that large
maskapi airline began to innovate to meet consumer needs.
According to William Liu, president and CEO of Abacus International, World Tourism
Organization predicts that by 2010 as many as 195 million people will membajiri tourist
destination of Asia-Pacific. 2020 predicted that number will soar reach 397 million people,
which is a quarter of the number of international tourism.
1.2 Problem Formulation
Based on the above background, it can be formulated problem is:
1. How much demand for tickets in 2020?
2. whether the demand for air tickets will rise?
1.3 Research Objectives
This research aims to:
1. estimate how much demand for tickets in 2020.
2. to seek information would be an increase in air tickets

1.4 Benefits Research

The benefits of this research, among others:
1. Provide information to consumers on how much increase in demand for air tickets 10 years to
come.
2. Provide an understanding that it deems appropriate to the public in order to understand more
about forecasting tickets will come.
1.5 Hypothesis
Ha : the increase in demand for air tickets in 2020
Ho : the lack of increase in demand for air tickets in 2020

CHAPTER II
CONTENTS

Garuda Indonesia (PT Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk; IDX: GIAA) is the national airline of
Indonesia. Garuda is the bird's name in the legend of Lord Vishnu mounts puppet. In 2007, the
airline along with other Indonesian airlines (including a subsidiary of Garuda Indonesia,
Citilink), banned from flying to Europe because of what happened to a Garuda Indonesia flight
number 200. A year later, the airline received the IATA Operational Safety Audit certification
(IOSA) of IATA which show Garuda Indonesia meets international flight safety standards. On
June 1, 2010, Garuda Indonesia to re-open previously closed route Amsterdam in 2004, with
Airbus A330-200 aircraft with a capacity of 222 passengers with stops in Dubai, United Arab
Emirates. This shows that Garuda Indonesia became interested in opening routes into Europe. In
2010, Garuda received an award from Skytrax is the "World's Most Improved Airline" on step
Garuda led by Satar in overhauling the national airline of the. In 2013, Garuda Indonesia has
received two awards from Skytrax, namely "World Best Economy Class "and" World Best
Economy Class Seat ". In mid-2014, Garuda Indonesia awarded "World's Best Cabin Crew".

Input Data :
data a;
input YEAR PASS;
cards;
2003 38548204
2004 41896836
2005 44812957
2006 50184757
2007 53892765
2008 58127492
2009 62950284
2010 69265927
2011 70285729
2012 74085620
2013 78302749
2014 82937393
;
proc forecast data=a out=b method=stepar
trend=2 outactual out1step outlimit lead=5;
var YEAR PASS;
proc print data=b;
title 'The Forecast of Indonesian Passanger Flights From Proc Forecast Stepar Method';
run;

Output Data :
The Forecast of Indonesian Passanger Flights From Proc Forecast Stepar Method
16:03 Thursday, may 2, 2015
Obs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

_TYPE_

ACTUAL
FORECAST
ACTUAL
FORECAST
ACTUAL
FORECAST
ACTUAL
FORECAST
ACTUAL
FORECAST
ACTUAL
FORECAST
ACTUAL
FORECAST
ACTUAL
FORECAST
ACTUAL
FORECAST

_LEAD_
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

YEAR

2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011

PASS

38548204.00
37896852.85
41896836.00
41995769.19
44812957.00
46094685.54
50184757.00
50193601.88
53892765.00
54292518.23
58127492.00
58391434.58
62950284.00
62490350.92
69265927.00
66589267.27
70285729.00
70688183.62

19 ACTUAL
20 FORECAST
21 ACTUAL
22 FORECAST
23 ACTUAL
24 FORECAST
25 FORECAST
26 L95
27 U95
28 FORECAST
29 L95
30 U95
31 FORECAST
32 L95
33 U95
34 FORECAST
35 L95
36 U95
37 FORECAST
38 L95
39 U95

0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
3
3
4
4
4
5
5
5

2012
74085620.00
2012
74787099.96
2013
78302749.00
2013
78886016.31
2014
82937393.00
2014
82984932.65
2015
87083849.00
2015
84705576.99
2015
89462121.01
2016
91182765.35
2016
88721505.54
2016
93644025.153
2017
95281681.69
2017
92728879.99
2017
97834483.39
2018
99380598.04
2018
96728586.01
2018 102032610.06
2019 103479514.38
2019 100721451.00
2019 106237577.77

From the above data it can be seen that the airline Garuda Indonesia flight booking number
increases every year. Along with economic growth creating demand for transportation services
or transportation, especially air transport increased. By because it, foreseen by 2020 demand for
tickets, especially airline Garuda Indonesia will continue to increase. Because air transport
demand by consumers because it can quickly reach the destination compared to other
transportation. Even in these days booking air tickets can be purchased through online, so that
consumers can buy tickets easily could be from anywhere. But there are still many shortcomings
buy tickets online, because not emua people can use the internet and many of the frauds
occurred.
But of all airlines Garuda Indonesia there are only the most desirable because even though prices
offered are quite expensive, because Garuda flying hours over such delay is not scheduled
airlines and more. More concerned Garuda flight hours according to the schedule in order not to
disappoint consumers. In order to remain attractive to consumers makapai Garuda Indonesia to
new innovations, namely by opening new routes that previously had no flying hours. With the
innovation of the estimated demand for air tickets Garuda will continue to increase compared to
other airlines.

CHAPTER III
CLOSING
3.1 Conclusion
Based on the above data, the writer can draw conclusions:
1. Pt. Garuda Indonesia as one airline, which first appeared and the largest in Indonesia continues
to make improvements, especially in terms of services, especially now that many emerging
companies other competitors with promotions and offering cheaper prices, and this has inevitably
also affect the company Garuda Indonesia to be able to continue to innovate one way to open
routes to several countries. In addition the company is required to be able to resolve internal and
external problems, such as corruption occurring within the company, and other external issues
such as security guarantees. Therefore companies strive to provide better service than
competitornya for example by providing insurance for users of the airline Garuda Indonesia.

2. The level of customer satisfaction with the quality of service performance of the main
attributes of Garuda Indonesia has been good, both in terms of services, the performance of staff
and cabin crew, cabin crew uniforms, entertainment and food, employment assistance and skills
of the staff and cabin crew were given during the flight. By increasing services, Garuda
Indonesia has launched a new service called "Garuda Indonesia Experience". This new service
offers a concept that reflects the genuine hospitality of Indonesia in all aspects.

3.2 Suggestions
Based on the above data the authors can provide advice that is hoped Garuda Indonesia is now
able to develop well, by improving the overall quality provide excellent service to all passengers
so that the vision of Garuda Indonesia to be "a reliable airline companies by offering quality
services to the people of the world using hospitality Indonesia ". Garuda Indonesia and should
not be easily satisfied with the success achieved, so that the vision became evident in the life of
Garuda Indonesia so it can be the name of Indonesia as Indonesian airlines which proved to be
competitive with airlines in the international arena of international flights.