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5 / February 4, 2013
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Credit | 3
Rates | 5
FX | 6
Equity | 8
Regulation | 10
Market
100$
2
Collateral
100$
Investor
1
Initial
Cash
Flows
Collateral
3
Swap Agreement
Security issued by
VIS Finance S.A.
Source: UBS
Banco Bilbao
Vizcaya Argentaria
has expanded its
equity derivatives
flow and structured
products capabilities
in Europe to grow
its distribution in the
U.K., Switzerland, the
Nordics and France.
(continued on page 16)
Regulatory Alert
People DataBank
Collateral
(charged assets)
See page 11
20
15
10
1
5
Credit
Equity Commodities FX
Interest
Rates
Equity
Interest
Rates
FX
Fixed
Income
Credit
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7 | U.S. Fx Volumes Continue Slide
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Credit
new collateralized loan obligation is set to launch. Cairn Capital is pitching the deal
and will hold the 5% skin-in-the-game portion via a managed structured credit fund.
Elsewhere, Socit Gnrale has identified the opportunity to sell a risk reversal on the
back of the recent widening in the iTraxx Main.
P&L (k )
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Credit
Cairn Readies CLO With Novel Equity Holding
Cairn Capital is pitching a collateralized loan obligation which will
hold the 5% skin-in-the-game portion via a managed structured
credit fund of the London-based asset manager. The fund will also
act as counterparty to the total return swap with the deals Credit
Suisse warehouse facility.
The risk retention portion will be in the form of a 5% tranche of the
EUR60 million (EUR81.4 million) subordinated first loss equity piece,
which will be split into two classes. It is understood the M1 tranche
has already been privately placed through reverse enquiry with a
third party investor, while the M2which represents the 5% skininthe game portionwill be held indefinitely by the Cairn Special
Opportunities Credit Fund. The credit fund, which has two pension
funds as its majority investors, according to market officials with
inside knowledge of the deal, will hold till maturity the 5% equity M2
tranche of the CLO. A spokeswoman at Cairn declined to comment.
Some buysiders said Cairns move to place the risk retention
portion of the equity tranche with the fund, and not bring it on balance
sheet, represented a greater risk for the funds investors, since it is
their money that would be used to purchase of the M2 class. After the
deal is done, that lump of equity is going to be stuck in that fund, one
fund manager with knowledge of the deal told DI. But [Cairns] also
going to be earning 50 [basis points per annum] of management fees
on the CLO, which Credit Suisse is arranging for them. So its slightly
odd that theyre doing this entire deal out of one of their funds.
Credit Suisse is arranging the 12-year Cairn CLO III deal and is
also providing the total return swap warehouse facility, which is used
to finance the seed portfolio being used as collateral for the EUR300.5
million (USD407.5 million) CLO, according to marketing material
seen by DI. If successfully placed, Cairns deal will represent the third
European CLO issued in the primary market since 2008. Cairn initially
launched its fund as the Structured Credit Fund, which invests in credit
default swaps, options and asset-backed securities, in late 2007. At
launch, the minimum investment required was USD1.5 million.
One senior credit investor with knowledge of the deal at a rival
London-based CLO manager said the fund is taking more risk
in acting as the counterparty for the total return swap with Credit
Suisses warehouse, as opposed to Cairn acting as the counterparty.
He noted, however, that investors in the fund could be enticed by the
possible yield the structure could bring. On the back of the envelope-unless they print at stupid levels--I think the equity will struggle to
make 10% [downside] on reasonable default assumptions, he said.
But, if the European economy improves and loans start performing,
the equity tranche could return almost 20%, he added.
Mohammed Jamal, London-based founder of investment
advisoryMolton Street Capital LLP, noted some investors may be
disappointed Cairn was not taking enough risk in the transaction. But
Cairn has a strong track record as a premier European CLO manager,
he added. I also think the deal is not as leveraged deals issued back
in the days, which brings more comfort to the investor base.
A spokesman at Credit Suisse declined to comment
News Roundup
Five-year credit default swaps on Chesapeake Energy narrowed
by 72.5 basis points to 391.9 bps after the Oklahoma City-based
firm announced that Aubrey McClendon will step down as ceo.
(Bloomberg, 1/30)
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Interest Rates
oncerns over an unexpected hike in U.S. interest rates are growing since the Federal
Reserve announced the numerical thresholds at the Federal Open Markets Committee
meeting in December. Debt ceiling fears have been allayed for the time being as the House
Republicans have approved a debt limit increase. Theres no slowing down in structured product
innovation as UBS markets a unique collateralized floating rate note linked to three-month USD
Libor and the credit risk of the Swiss Confederation.
The worlds number one sales and marketing tool for investment managers
curve is the most vulnerable. What I am saying is that, with the Fed
numerical thresholds in place, if the Fed acknowledges this strong
data then we could see a hike in 2015, meaning that the 2y1y rate
that will get destroyed a lot more than the
4y1y ratesso people will start
focusing on these trades now
since the broad macro selloff
has happened already.
According to the firms
analysis, the options
strategy would expire
worthless and keep
the premium intake
should the first hike in
rates occur in two years.
Should hike expectations
be brought forward, then
the trade could potentially gain
97115 basis points.
The two-year forward, one-year rate,
which is basically the market expectations of fed
hikes in 2015, has gone up roughly 10 basis points in the last 10
days. Whereas the 4y1y rate, which is the market expectation of
fed hikes in 2017, has gone up by 20 basis points. So that part of
the yield curve has steepenedso levels are better for putting on
a flattener now, said Goyal. Also, because of a larger move in
rates, delivered vol is higher, meaning implied vol goes higher. So
vol on 4y1y rates is very high relative to vol on 2y1y rates by about
60-80%. So when you put on a bear flattenerpositioning that the
market will start worrying about the Fed hiking sooner rather than
later, meaning you want to buy a put option on 2y1y rates, funded
by a put option on 4y1y ratesyou are going to put on a flattener at
better levels because the option on 2y1y is cheaper.
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FX
raders spent much of the week focused on non-farm payrolls that were due for release
Friday. Strategists were forecasting a continuation in the euros strength as the region
benefits from renewed capital inflows on the back of an increase in risk appetite. The yen is
still receiving the bulk of market attention with some traders noting that the U.S. dollar/yen would
have to significantly rise in order to achieve the Bank of Japans ambitious 2% inflation target.
Now that the yen is weakening, weve seen quite a lot of PRDC
trades knocking out or being early called, so this is generating
some interest in these products, said Filippo Olivetti, managing
director and co-head of markets structuring for Asia Pacific at the
Royal Bank of Scotland in Tokyo. Investors of PRDC notes in
previous years have been suffering quite a lot, because theyve
been taking the view that yen will not strengthen. Thats definitely
not what was happening until a couple of months ago.
Olivetti noted investors had been concentrating on AUD in new
PRDC trades due to the rates differential compared to JPY. The
difference in the long-dated [AUD] rate and yen rate is much higher
compared to U.S. and yen, he said. And the payout tends to mimic
what a carry trade would do. So the bigger differential between the
two currencies, the more attractive the trade will look.
The yen has been depreciating as the Bank of Japan and Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe seek to stimulate the economy and fight inflation.
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FX
U.S. Fx Volumes Fall Again
Average daily volume total for over-the-counter fx instruments in
the U.S. has decreased by 7.7% since April 2012.
A survey of North American fx volume conducted by the
U.S. Federal Reserve Foreign Exchange Committee, put fx
spot, forwards, swaps and options at USD794 billion in October,
compared with USD860 billion in April.
The decline was primarily driven by a 48% drop in spot, which
had its lowest turnover since April 2007. The committee added
that the decrease partly reflects the impact of Hurricane Sandy.
The decline was mainly in euro against U.S. dollar transactions,
accounting for around two-thirds
Regional Average
of the overall decrease.
Daily Volumes
The total of average daily
U.S. USD794 billion
fx transactions volumes was
USD793,543 million in October,
U.K. USD1,919 billion
against USD859,845 million
Singapore USD361 billion
in April. Average daily options
Japan USD300.5billion
volumes also decreased
Canada USD54.3 billion
to USD27,398 million from
USD33,419 million.
Australia USD186 billion
However, the total of
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Equity
here was increased option activity in emerging market exchange-traded funds last week.
According to BNP Paribas, one investor sold 18k of June iShares Brazil USD56-strike puts so
to buy June iShares Mexico USD73-strike puts at 14k with the view that Mexican equities will
outperform those in Brazil. Elsewhere, investors in Asia are buying volatility via upside calls on U.S.
and Chinese stocks.
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Equity
Stock, Index Structures Take Off In Tokyo
Knock-in, knock-out structured products linked to the Nikkei and
single Japanese stocks are being snapped up as Japans equity
market rebounds sharply.
The most common trade is knock-in-knock-out type of notes
that pay a fixed coupon and, if its above a certain trigger level, the
notes will redeem, said a structurer in Tokyo. Quite a lot of these
trades and some single stock ones have been done recently.
Knock-in, knock-out structured products contain a knock-in put
which redeems the deal at par as long as the Nikkei is above a
certain trigger level. Otherwise, the notes will redeem at the ratio
between the final and initial value.
Japanese equity has rebounded in response to the Bank of
Japan and governments stimulus plan.
In a recent client note, strategists at BNP Paribas said Japan
could experience mild nominal wage rises and consumer prices
could swing to positive growth this year. Interest rates are likely to
remain low as the BoJ continues its [Japanese Government Bond]
purchases, but we think domestic demand will expand under negative
real-term interest rates, the strategist noted. We believe not only
overseas investors but domestic investors will enter the market soon.
The strategists noted investors could deploy a number of strategies
Investors in Asia are buying volatility via upside calls on U.S. and
Chinese stocks as sentiment improves in the U.S. and Asian markets.
A senior equity trader said flow had been seen on upside calls
referencing Apple and Chinese communications company China
Mobile. You have index volatility in Hong Kong at levels we havent
seen in almost eight years, so really low levels in vols are leading
clients to buy upside calls, the trader said.
The trader noted some clients had also bought accumulators
and simple equity-linked notes referencing Apple. Accumulators
combine a strip of forwards and knock-outs, allowing investors to
buy stocks from the bank for a predetermined amount of time at a
predetermined level, as long as it does not breach an upside barrier.
Investors could also start playing skew on the S&P 500, selling
puts at 90% and buying calls at 110% in a bid to play the difference
between the vol and the skew, the trader added. Theres about an
8 point spread, so that skew is actually still quite steep, he said.
Whereas you have the vol, pure index vol at 12, so the ratio of the
vol to the skew is at historically very high levels.
BNP Paribas strategists said recently in a client note that Asian
investors had started the year positive on equities. But investors
still have concerns over China slowing in the second half of 2013.
Some investors are concerned about Indian share prices running
VOL. XXII, NO. 5 / February 4, 2013
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he International Swaps and Derivatives Association has criticised initial margin requirement
proposals from the Securities and Exchange Commission, noting that the requirements
would curtail the use of uncleared swaps for hedging. In Europe, firms are awaiting the
European Parliaments Economic and Monetary Affairs Committees debate on derivative technical
standards, which takes place on Tuesday.
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People DataBank
ith frequent news of firms cutting and winding down various divisions, Banco
BilbaoVizcaya Argentaria stood out this week with its expansion in equity
derivativesflow and structured products capabilities in Europe and the hiring of six
staffers. On the debit side, UBS saw the departure of Jay Elkins, head of delta one sales for the
Americas in New York.
20
15
Arrivals
33%
10
Departures
67%
Credit
Equity Commodities FX
Interest
Rates
Equity
Interest
Rates
FX
Fixed
Income
Credit
Month-to-Date Arrivals
Month-to-Date Departures
Firm
Name
Role
Firm
Name
Role
BAML
Michael Slater
Co head, commodities
StoneHedge Partners
Makram Fares
BAML
Colin Toh
Co head, commodities
BBVA
Stephen Garrett
Barclays
Stephen Roti
BBVA
Benjamin Cazenave
Barclays
Dan Malone
Barclays
Rob Heck
BBVA
Mattias
Gustawsson
BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas
Hudson Wong
Deutsche Bank
Thomas Jarck
Brevan Howard
Riyaz Daya
Capula Investment
Management
Gagandeep Singh
Citigroup
Prashant Puniya
ETF Securities
Frank Spiteri
Eli Vichman
Managing Partner
Pete Cherasia
CAO
Morgan Stanley
Zachary Heng
Morgan Stanley
Supat Julsiri
Vincent Dumontoy
trader
Morgan Stanley
Yuichi Yamashita
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Stuart Morris
Nomura
Pradeep Kanwar
Morgan Stanley
Simon Hogan
COO, Equity
Nomura
Gavin ONeill
Morgan Stanley
Shiv Chadha
Morgan Stanley
Sanjay Chablaney
Morgan Stanley
Pascal Baup
Morgan Stanley
Hojun Hwang
Morgan Stanley
Guido Rizzato
Equity Structuring
Morgan Stanley
Christian Matthew
Nomura
Alex Mahler
RBC
Cyril Cannamela
Sberbank
Bill Beller
Socit Gnrale
Michael Sauerbrey
Pemberton
The information is gathered from our own reporting in addition to other market sources. To supply information, contact Managing Editor Rob McGlinchey in London at
rmcglinchey@euromoneyplc.com, or Executive Editor Peter Thompson in Chicago at pthompson@iiintelligence.com.
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Learning Curve
Bermudan Swaption Pricing Under Multiple Curves
By Georgios Tsouderos, Damien Jenner and Xue Chen, financial engineers at Calypso Technology
We revisit the problem of valuing Bermudan swaptions in a 1-factor LGM model when
the yield curves used for projecting and discounting the flows of the reference swap are
different to the yield curves used to value standard European swaptions.
Georgios
Tsouderos
Introduction
It is now common to fully collateralise vanilla transactions but there
are various practical cases where the curves used to project and
discount cashflows for an option may be different to the ones used
when valuing fully collateralised vanilla options:
The index used in the funding leg of the transaction is not the
one referenced by the standard vanilla options (such as standard
swaptions), thus requiring the basis curve to be taken into account.
As an example, the basis between the OIS curve and noncollateralised LIBOR fixings, although low before the recent credit
crisis, has increased dramatically since then.
The transaction is either not collateralised or uses different
collateral to the vanilla options
In this note we re-visit the valuation of an option on an interest
rate swap with early exercise rights (commonly called a Bermudan
option) in the context of a popular short rate model, the Linear
Gauss Markov model (LGMM), when one set of curves is used to
calibrate the model and another set of curves is used to project and
discount the option cashflows.
k k k
i j
where k and j are the coverage fractions for the floating and fixed
leg respectively, f k are the simple forwards off the fixing curve used
for the swap and Z(x, Tj) are the (stochastic) numeraire-normalised
discount factors to T k.
The typical approach has been to set the fixing and discount curves
applicable to the option exercise value to be the market fixing and
discount curves, usually a LIBOR curve in both cases. Consequently,
in a one-factor setting, the value of the swap at the above exercise
date can be computed by assigning the model variable X(t) to the
discount curve and making the basis between the fixing and discount
curves deterministic. This is a generally accepted practice, especially
when the basis between the two curves is not high.
The Model
(1)
dX(t) = a(t)dw(t)
Calibration Phase
For the purposes of calibration we need to map the swap in (3) to
a standard swap, valued off the standard swap curves. To do this
we first incorporate the difference in the fixing curves as a coupon
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Learning Curve
approximations to the ones we used in the calibration phase, the
value of the swap can thus be seen to be
(9a)
adjustment. Setting
(4a)
A (x) := j Dj Z (x, Tj )
(4b)
fxd
i
with bk := f k f kXibor being the basis between the trade fixing and
the standard swap curve (which, for notational purposes, we call
the Xibor curve), it follows that the exercise value of the swap is
(5a) U(Tiex ) = f Xibor Z (x, T ) (x) Z (x, T
k k k
j)
(x):= ci
with
Bi (x)
i(x):= ci fxd
(5b)
Ai
being the basis adjusted fixed leg coupon. As expected, the
adjustment disappears when there is no fixing curve basis.
Next, we consider the transition between the trade discounting
curve and the standard discounting curve (which we call the OIS
curve). Here, an approach similar to the one just described can also
be applied. Instead we adopt a potentially more accurate approach
and observe that the discount factors in the two discount curves are
related through multiplicative adjustments as of (the value date)
(6)
the approximate, fully adjusted, coupon of the swap that can now
be valued as variable-notional swap on the model lattice.
i,
and solve for the coupon i(x) of the latter - thus i(x) can be
seen as an affine function of the coupon i(x) that adjusts for the
fixing curve basis. Another approach would be to apply one of the
techniques available for the replication of variable notional swaps.
Valuation Phase
We perform the valuation on a tree using a roll back algorithm used
in standard Markov Functional Models and, more recently, in the
Sali tree implementation.
Here, the intermediate step of mapping the original swap onto
a standard one is no longer required as we are not attempting
to find an equivalent volatility for the corresponding European
Swaption, we rather map directly onto the standard swap discount
curve as this is the curve that is being modelled. Making similar
VOL. XXII, NO. 5 / February 4, 2013
ATM Coupon
ITM Coupon
OTM Coupon
(2.5%)
(1.5%)
(3.5%)
27,501
48,997
15,834
Trade discount at 5%
28,058
44,651
17,966
15,630
27,124
9,354
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Q&A
Andrew Kaufmann, UBS
Andrew Kaufmann is managing director and global head of fx structuring at UBS,
based in London. He spoke to Reporter Beth Shah about structured product trends
in 2012 and what structures and underlyings he expects to be popular for 2013,
hybrid products, emerging market structures, macroeconomics and regulation.
Andrew
Kaufmann
DI: How is UBS planning to develop its fx structuring in 2013?
AK: In terms of product, we work with a variety of clients from
private banks to corporates and large institutions. Within that
space, the majority of the work and development in recent years
has focused on analysis and solutions rather than on new, complex
products and I expect 2013 to be the same.
DI: What happened during the second half of last year, from a
product perspective, when volatility dropped?
AK: There were still a fair amount of dual currency products
because although volatility had dropped, many currencies were
range-bound so many clients were still comfortable with that. Some
clients would take strikes closer to the money in order to maintain
their coupon. We also saw distinct client interest in the U.S. dollar
against the Chinese yuan, which is a characteristically low volatility
currency pair. There are many clients who are taking views which
are bullish CNY against USD over time.
DI: What sort of products do clients use to play that bullish view?
AK: Usually one-to-two year investments where the simplest case
is something that gives participation to the strength of CNY. We
are seeing some trades with digital coupons as well, so if CNY
strengthens you get a coupon of X% and if it doesnt then you dont
receive the coupon--those types of trades.
DI: You mentioned that investors are very much looking at
USD/JPY and EUR/CHF. What products are they using to trade?
AK: It very much depends on their views. There are some clients
who take a view that the moves are going to continue and they
have tended to be buying volatility either through over-the-counter
trades, or through investments where they will be buying either
dollar calls or euro calls. A combination of demand for those types
of trades, plus the scale of the currency moves, has led to a rise in
implied volatility for both those currency pairs. There will also be
clients who are looking to take profit, so if they have a long position
in USD/JPY they will be selling USD calls (JPY puts) maybe
through some form of dual currency structure, or similar structures
to that.
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Q&A
DI: Emerging market currencies have received a lot of
attention. How do you see EM structures evolving this year?
AK: Over the past few years weve seen a lot of attention linked
to emerging markets, particularly in structured notes. The classic
trade was long the BRIC currencies against USD in various formats.
I think that trend will continue because the story of emerging
market growth hasnt changed, its still a long-term secular trade
and frequently reported. I think
there is increased awareness
In 2013 we are seeing of differences across emerging
a clear theme emerge markets, but the way that is
around reallocation
reflected is that clients will
choose which combination
of capital away from
safe haven currencies, of three particular emerging
markets to be bullish of against
and if that continues
USD or EUR, rather than bullish
there could be more
emerging market A and bearish
potential opportunities emerging market B. Its still the
given the clarity of the same trend but perhaps its now
theme.
more fine-tuned. One other thing
that is quite interesting to note is
that recently the emerging market
fx business at UBS was brought in to the fx business. Clearly we
have many clients who trade a combination of emerging market and
G10 currencies, and this will enable us to look at foreign exchange
much more holistically than we may have previously. Thats a sign of
changes within the market.
DI: As regulation develops, do you think that structured
products are going to become simpler?
AK: My personal view is that it has happened already. We have
seen a change across clients and I would expect the current level
of complexity to more or less remain the same going forward.
DI: What have been the greatest challenges in the fx
structured product market within the last 12 months? Where
do you see the market moving this year?
AK: In 2013 we are seeing a clear theme emerge around
reallocation of capital away from safe haven currencies, and if
that continues there could be more potential opportunities given
the clarity of the theme. This is in contrast to 2012 which lacked a
clear theme and meant there were fewer reasons for clients to be
involved in that market.
DI: In terms of regulation what is your biggest concern?
And which regulation will have the greatest impact on your
business?
AK: We see regulatory change as an opportunity and we are well
positioned to be able to advise clients through this change and
ensure they are fully compliant with the regulation. I think once
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