POLICY FOR POWER INFRASTRUCTURE

Hydropower project delivery perspective for developing policy

OPPORTUNITY OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECT

High demand of electrical power (7%/year)

Very high liquid fossil fuel subsidies (20% of GDP)
Huge renewable energy resources (Water, Solar,
Geothermal, Biomass, etc.)
Depletion of fossil fuel (Liquid, Natural Gas, Coal)
Favorable policy and regulation that support
renewable energy project development are available
High risk business that can be highly profitable and
disappointing as well
Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

1000MW Hydro versus Thermal

Parameter

Unit

Hydropower plant

Thermal Power plant

Plant Capacity

MW

1000

1000

Per MW Cost

Mill USD/MW

1.78

Total Project Cost

Mill USD

2000

1781

Plant Load Factor

45

85

Gross Generation

GWh

3942

7446

Net Generation

GWh

3922

6776

0.5

9.0

Fuel Cost

Mill USD/Year

151.2

O & M Cost

Mill USD/Year

14.3

27.8

Days/Year

46-67

86

Months

61

44

Years

> 35

< 25

0.03
Dr. USD/kWh
Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

0.05

Auxiliary Consumption

Planned & Forced Outage

Completion Time Period
Life of the Plant
Cost of Generation

Hydropower development stage

Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

ENERGY TRILEMMA
ENERGY SECURITY :
The effective management of primary
energy supply from domestic and external
sources, the reliability of energy infrastructure
and the energy providers to meet current and
future demand

ENERGY SECURITY

ENERGY EQUITY
Accessability and affordability of
energy supply across the population

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
Encompasses the achievement of supply
and demand side energy efficiencies and
the development of energy supply from
renewables and other low carbon sources

ENERGY EQUITY

Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

ET
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
Sources : PLN and
World Energy Council
5

ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX 2015 ( 130 COUNTRIES )

RANK OF COUN TRY ENERGY
TRILEMMA
1. SWITZERLAND

3. NORWAY
11. NETHERLAND
12. USA
21. MALAYSIA
23. SINGAPORE
50. PHILIPINA
65. INDONESIA
74. CHINA
107. INDIA
129. SENEGAL
130. BENIN
A
B
C
D

SCORE
OF
RANK

RANK OF
ENERGY
SECURITY

RANK OF
ENERGY
EQUITY

RANK OF
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY

AAA
AAB
BBB
AAC
AAC
ABD
BBC
ACC
ACD
BDD
DDD
DDD

10
33
31
3
19
120
52
17
21
53
127
128

5
18
36
1
24
15
92
88
78
103
112
117

1
6
46
95
76
25
35
75
129
122
106
109

Very High Performance

Good result
Perform but need improvement
Not perform well

Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

Sources : PLN and

World Energy Council

LARGE HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANT in OPERATION

(PLN: 3,407 MW & IPP: 537 MW, Total: 3,944 MW)
North Sumatera
1. Asahan I HEPP (180 MW)

North Sumatera
1. Renun HEPP (82 MW)
2. Sipansipahoras HEPP (50 MW)

North Sulawesi

Riau

1. Tonsealama HEPP (14.38 MW)

2. Tanggari IHEPP (18 MW)
3. Tanggari II HEPP (19 MW)

1. Koto Panjang HEPP (114 MW)

West Sumatera

Central Sulawesi

1. Batang Agam HEPP (10.5 MW)

2. Maninjau HEPP (68 MW)
3. Singkarak HEPP (175 MW)

1. Poso-2 HEPP (195 MW)

Bengkulu
1. Lebong HEPP (12 MW)

Bengkulu
1. Musi HEPP (215.52 MW)
2. Tes HEPP (17.64 MW)

South Kalimantan
1. Riam Kanan HEPP (20
MW)

South Sulawesi
1. Bakaru I HEPP (126 MW)
2. Bili-Bili HEPP (20 MW)

Lampung
1. BatuTegi HEPP(29.6 MW)
2. Besai HEPP (92.8 MW)

West Java
1. Djatiluhur HEPP (150 MW)

West Java
1. Cikalong HEPP (19.2 MW)
2. Cirata HEPP (1,008 MW)
3. Kracak HEPP (18.9 MW)
4. Lamajang HEPP (19.6 MW)
5. Saguling HEPP (700.2 MW)
6. Ubrug HEPP (18.36 MW)

Central Java
1. Garung HEPP (26.4 MW)
2. Jelok HEPP (20.5 MW)
3. Kedung Ombo HEPP (22.5 MW)
4. Sudirman HEPP (181 MW)
5. Timo HEPP (12 MW)
6. Tulungagung HEPP (36 MW)
7. Wadas Lintang HEPP (18 MW)
8. Wonogiri HEPP (12 MW)

East Java
1. Mendalan HEPP (23 MW)
2. Sengguruh HEPP (29 MW)
3. Siman HEPP (10.8 MW)
4. Sutami HEPP (105 MW)
5. Wlingi HEPP (54 MW)

Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

: PLN

: IPP

14

HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN

(6,300 MW up to Year 2021 and 12,900 MW up to Year 2027)

Hydro Power Potential Study

(1983) : 75.000 MW 1,249 Location

Review Hydro Power Potential

Study (1999) 3rd Screening :
21.480 MW -167 Location

Hydropower Master Plan Study

( 2011 ) : 12.964 MW 89 Location

PAPUA
49 MW

SUMATERA
4.408,4 MW
JAWA
4.594,5 MW

NUSA TENGGARA
15 MW
Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

13

LARGE HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANT DEVELOPMENT

up to 2024 (Total: 8,363 MW)
Aceh (NAD)
1. Tampur-1 HEPP (428 MW)
2. Jambo Aye HEPP (160 MW)
3. Lawe Alas HEPP (151 MW)

Aceh (NAD)
1. Peusangan 1&2 HEPP (87 MW)

Aceh (NAD)
1. Peusangan-4 HEPP (83 MW)
2. Meurebo-2 HEPP (59 MW)
3. Redelong HEPP (18 MW)

North Sumatera
1. Simonggo-2 HEPP (90 MW)
2. Asahan III HEPP (174 MW)
3. Kumbih-3 HEPP (48 MW)
4. Sumatera Pumped Storage
HEPP (1000 MW)

North Sumatera

West Sumatera
1. Masang-2 HEPP (55 MW)
2. Masang-3 HEPP (89 MW)

Bengkulu
1. Ketahun-1 HEPP (84 MW)

Bengkulu

1. Hasang HEPP (40 MW)

2. Sidikalang-1 HEPP (15 MW)
3. Wampu HEPP (45 MW)
4. Batang Toru HEPP (500 MW)
5. Sibundong-4 HEPP (120 MW)

Jambi
1. Merangin HEPP (350 MW)

Lampung
1. Semangka HEPP (56 MW)

1. Air Putih HEPP (21 MW)

West Kalimantan
1. Baliem HEPP (50 MW)
2. Genyem HEPP (20 MW)
3. Orya-2 HEPP (10 MW)

East Kalimantan
1. Kelai HEPP (55 MW)

South Kalimantan

1. Warsamson HEPP (46,5 MW)

North Sulawesi

North Sulawesi

1. Sawangan HEPP (12 MW)

1. Poigar-2 HEPP (30 MW)

West Sulawesi

West Sulawesi

1. Karama HEPP (190 MW)

2. Tabulahan HEPP (20 MW)
3. Masupu HEPP (36 MW)

1. Poko HEPP (234 MW)

Central Sulawesi
1. Poso-1 HEPP (120 MW)

South Sulawesi
1. Bakaru II HEPP (126 MW)

Moluccu
1. Tala HEPP (27 MW)

Southeast Sulawesi
1. Konawe HEPP (50 MW)
2. Wotunohu HEPP (15 MW)

South Sulawesi
1. Bonto Batu HEPP (110 MW)
2. Malea HEPP (90 MW)
3. Salu Uro HEPP (96 MW)
4. Kalaena HEPP (54 MW)
5. Seko HEPP (480 MW)
6. Buttu Batu HEPP (200 MW)
7. Paleleng HEPP (40 MW)

Southeast Sulawesi

West Java
1. Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage
HEPP (1,040 MW)
2. Jatigede HEPP (110 MW)

West Java

NTT

1. Rajamandala HEPP (47 MW)

Central Java
Source : RUPTL 2015-2024

West Papua

1. Kusan HEPP (65 MW)

1. Lasolo HEPP (146 MW)

1. Matenggeng Pumped
StorageHEPP (900 MW)

Papua

1. Nanga Pinoh HEPP (98 MW)

1. Wae Rancang HEPP (16,5 MW)

East Java
1. Karangkates IV&V HEPP (100 MW)
2. Kesamben HEPP (37 MW)

NTB

: PLN (4,521 MW)

: IPP (3,103 MW)
: Unallocated (739 MW)

1. Brang Beh HEPP (18 MW)

Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

16

Hydropower Under Construction (1,565.4MW), PPA Negotiation with IPP (1.779 MW)
& Under Study/Design & Procurement (2,131 MW)
ACEH ( 86.4 MW )

ACEH( 144 MW )

1. PEUSANGAN 1&2 (86.4 MW)

NORTH SUMATERA ( 219 MW )

1. ASAHAN III (174 MW)
2. WAMPU (45 MW)

WEST SUMATERA ( 52 MW )

PAPUA( 56.5 MW )

1. PEUSANGAN IV (85 MW)

2. MEUREBO-2 (59 MW)

1. WARSAMSON (46.5 MW)

2. ORYA-2 (10 MW)

NORTH SUMATERA ( 589 MW )

1. BATANG TORU (550 MW)
2. HASANG (39 MW)

SOUTH & WEST SULAWESI( 640 MW )

1. GENYEM (20 MW)

2. BALIEM (50 MW)

NORTH SUMATERA ( 90 MW )

MOLUCCU ( 54 MW )

1. SIMANGGO-2 (90 MW)

1. MASANG-2 (52 MW)

PAPUA ( 70 MW )

1. MALEA (90MW)
2. BONTOBATU (100 MW)
3. KARAMA ( 450 MW )

1. TALA (54 MW)

KALIMANTAN ( 313 MW )
1. KUSAN (65 MW)
2. NANGA PINOH (98 MW)
3. KELAI (150 MW)

JAMBI ( 350 MW )

JAVA( 1,094 MW )

1. MERANGIN (350 MW)

1. KARANGKATES 4&5 (100 MW)

2. KESAMBEN (32 MW)
3. KALIKONTO (62 MW)
4. MATENGGENG PS (900 MW)

SULAWESI ( 437 MW )
1. SAWANGAN (12 MW)
2. BAKARU II (126 MW)
3. POKO (234 MW)
4. KONAWE-1 (50 MW)
5. WATUNOHU (15 MW)

LAMPUNG( 56MW )
1. SEMANGKA(56MW)

WEST JAVA ( 1,150 MW )

1. UPPER CISOKAN PS (1,040 MW)
2. JATIGEDE (110 MW)

WEST JAVA( 40 MW )
1. RAJAMANDALA (40 MW)

Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

NUSA TENGGARA( 34.5 MW )

1. WAI RANCANG (16.5 MW)
2. BEH-1 (18 MW)

UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
PPA NEGOTIATION
STUDY / DESIGN
/PROCUREMENT

17

10

HYDROPOWER , STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

ECONOMIC ASPECTS
ADVANTAGES

DISADVANTAGES

Provides low operating and maintenance.

Provide long life span (50-100 years/more).
Meets load flexibility with reservoir.
Provide reliable service.
Includes proven technology.
Can instigate and foster regional develop.
Provides highest energy efficiency rate.
Can generate revenues to sustain other
water uses.
Create employment opportunities.
Saves fuel.
Can provide energy independence by exploiting national resources.
Optimizes power supply of other generating
options (thermal and intermittent renew) .

High upfront investment.

Precipitation dependent.
In some cases the storage capacity of reservoirs may decrease due to sediment.
Requires long term planning.
Requires long term agreement.
Requires multy diciplinary involement.
Often requires foreign Contractors and
funding .

Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

11

19

Sample of capital costs in 3 major global projects

Nr.

Plant name

year

Capacity (MW)

1
2
3

Itaipu
Gabcikovo- Nagymaros
Three Gorges

1984-1991
12,600
1977
880
1993 - 2000 18,200

Capital cost /kW

$ 1,600
$ 1,200
$ 1,200

(Source: Renewable Energy, Boyle, 2004)

Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

12

Hydropower project cost in Indonesia

Careful attention to the initial assumed cost
Each hydropower project is unique & depends
on specific site conditions
Final project cost could rise due to lack of data
at initial stage, particularly the geological info

Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

13

HYDROPOWER , STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SOCIAL ASPECTS

ADVANTAGES

DISADVANTAGES

Leaves water available for other uses.

Often provides flood protection.
May enhance navigation conditions.
Often enhances recreational facilities.
Enhances accessibility of the territory and
Its resources ( access roads, bridges,etc ).
Provide opportunities for construction and
operation with a high percentage of local
man power.
Improves living conditions.
Sustain livelihoods (fresh water ,food
supply).

May involve resettlement .

May restrict navigation .
Local land use patterns will be modified .
Waterbone disease vectors may occur .
Requires management of competing water
uses .
Effects on impacted peoples livelihoods
need to be addressed , with particular attention to vulnerable social groups.
Effects on cultural heritage need to be
addressed .

Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

14

20

HYDROPOWER , STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS
ADVANTAGES

DISADVANTAGES

Produces no atmospheric pollutants .

Neither consumes nor pollutes the water it
uses for electricity generation purposes .
produces no wastes .
Avoid depleting non-renewable fuel resour.
Very few greenhouse gas emissions relative
to other large scale energy options .
Can create new freshwater ecosystems with
increased productivity .
Enhances knowledges and improves management of valued spec due to study result .
Can result in increased attention to existing
environmental issues in the affected area .

Innundation of terrestrial habitat .

Modification of hydrological regimes .
Modifications of aquatic habitats .
Water quality needs to be monitored and
managed .
Greenhouse gas emmisions can arise un der certain conditions in tropical reservoir.
Species activities and populations need
to be managed and monitored .
Barriers for fish migration,fish entrainment
Sediment composition and transport may
need to be monitored/managed .
Introduction of pest species needs to be
monitored/managed .

Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

15

21

ISSUES ON SUSTAINABILITY HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT *)

TECHNICAL ASPECTS ( siting and design, hydrologi,reservoir planning
filling and managements, infrastructure safety, asset reliability & eff.)
ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS (downstream flows,erosion and sedimentation, air&water quality,biodiversity and invasive species,waste,noise,etc)
SOCIAL ASPECTS (project affected communities and livelyhoods, resettlment , indigenous peoples,cultural heritages,public health , etc)
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ASPECTS (economic viability, financial via bility , projects benefits , procurement , etc )

INTEGRATIVE ASPECTS ( demonstrated need and strategic fit, communications and consultations,governance,integrated project management ,
environmental and social issues management, etc)
*) Reff : IHA Hydropower Sustainability Assesment Protocol .

Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

16

23

OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES ON HEPP DEVELOPMENT

OPPORTUNITIES
Huge of HEPP resources availability.
High electricity demand growth rate.
Availability of commercially proven technology for HEPP design and construction.
Supported by government policy and PLN.
In line with the international perspective of clean energy.
CHALLENGES
Availability of HEPP resources and the electricity demand are not always match.
Readiness rudimentary regulation, while HEPP development is highly dependent on
many regulations, because it involves many stakeholders that could potentially
inhibit each other.
HEPP development costs is relatively high.
Risk factors are higher because of the nature condition, location, etc.
The availability of competent institution and human resources are still limited.
To manage the difference between the interest of environmental sustainability
and energy security (eg, hydropower development versus conservation area).
Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

17

30

Thank You

Dr. Ir. Aries Firman MSc, MBA, June 2016

18