Chapter 8: 8.

2 Basics of
Hypothesis Testing
Todd J. Thomas, University of Arkansas

H0 :. If the confidence interval includes the popuhis lesson is a continuation of hypothesis

lation parameter, then we fail to reject H0 :. Note:
testing we did on Friday. Recall that we
This method may yeild a different result than the
have have learned two methods for testing
p-value or the test statistic method.
hypothesis: Hypothesis testing and confidence
intervals. We will also look at error reporting,
and Type I and Type II errors.
Wording the Final Conclusion

8.2 Basics of Hypothesis Testing

Cont.
Making Decisions Recall that we can make two conclusions:
Reject H0 : if and only if p-value < (significance
level).
Fail to Reject H0 :, if and only if p-value > alpha
We can also use the test statistic method or the leave
to the reader method, but moslty we will use the p-value
method.
Test Statistic Method: If the test statistic falls
within the critical (reject) region, we reject H0 :
in favor of HA :. If the test statistic does not fall in
the critial region, then we fail to reject H0 :.
Leave to the Reader: In this method, we simply
report the p-value and leave the decision making
up to the reader. This is typically only done within
research or working with other statisticians.
Confidence Interval Method: If you construct a confidence interval and the confidence interval does not
include the population parameter, then we Reject

For help wording the final conclusion, use the below table. Note that only the first case leads wording indicating
support for the origional conclusion.
Condition
Original claim does
not include equality,
and you reject H0 .
Original claim does
not include equality,
and you fail to reject
H0 :.
Original claim includes
equality, and you
reject H0 :.
Original claim includes
equality, and you fail
to reject H0 :.

Conclusion
There is sufficient
evidence to support
the claim that ...
(original conclusion).
There is not sufficient
evidence to support
the claim that ...
(original claim).
There is sufficient evidence
to warrant rejection of the
claim that .....(original claim).
There is not sufficient
evidence to warrant
rejection of the claim
that ... (original claim).

Lastly, you will restate the final techinical conclusion, the probability of a baby girl is p > .5 The null and
in non-technical terms. Never conclude a hypothesis test alternative hypothesis are:
with a statement reject the null hypothesis or fail to
H0 : p = 0.5
reject the null hypothesis. Always make sense of the
conclusion with a statment that uses simple non-technical
HA : p > 0.5
wording that addresses the original claim.
Identify the following: a. Type I Error, b. Type II Error

Errors in Hypothesis Tests

When testing a null hypothesis, we arrive at a conclusion of rejecting it or failing to reject it. Such conclusions
are sometimes correct and sometimes wrong (even if we
apply all treatments correctly). We distingusih between
the two types of errors by calling them Type I and Type
II errors:

Definition 0.1. Type I Error ( error): The

mistake of rejecting the null hypothesis when it
is actully true. The symbol (alpha) is used to
represent the probability of a Type I error.

Solution: Descriptions of a type I error and a type II

error refer to the null hypothesis being true or false.
1. Type I Error: A type I error is the mistake of
rejecting a true null hypothesis, so in this case a
type I error is to conclude that the gender selection
method is effective when in reality is has no effect.
2. Type II Error: A type II erro is the mistake of
failing to reject a null hypothesis that is false: In
this case a type II error is to conclude that the
gender selection method has no effect when in fact
it really is effective in increasing the likelihood of a
baby girl.

Definition 0.2. Type II Error ( error): The

mistake of failing to reject the null hypothesis when
it is actually false. The symbol (beta) is used to
represent the probability of a Type II error.
Notation:
1. error The probability of a type I error
(the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis
when it is true).
2. error The probability of a type II error (the probability of failing to reject a null
hypothesis when it is false).

The True State of Nature

H0 : is true
H0 : is false
Type I Error
We Reject
rejecting a true null
Correct Decision
H0 :
Decision
hypothesis
Type II Error
We fail to
failing to reject a
Correct Decision
reject H0 :
false null hypothesis

Example: Consider the claim that a method of gender

selection increases the likelihood of a baby girl, so that

Examples

4. What is the null hypothesis and what do you conclude about it?

Problem 01: Assume a significance level of = 0.05

to address the following claim: The proportion of male
5. What is the final conclusion?
golfers is more than 0.5. The hypothesis test results in
a p-value of 0.037. State a conclusion about the null Solution: see below:
hypothesis, then without using technical terms, state a
1. Notice that prop0.09, this is our claim and since
final conclusion that addresses the original claim.
the beak of the less than sign points to the left, this
is a left tail test.
Solution: Since the p-value is less than the significance,
the we reject the null hypothesis. Since our original claim
does not include equality, and we reject the null hypothesis, then using the above table, There is sufficient
evidence to support the claim that the proporition of
male golfers is more than 0.50.
Problem 02: Itentify the Type I and Type II errors
that corresponds to the given hypothesis. The proportion
of settled medical malpractice suits is 0.16.

2. The test statistic is given by the z-score, thus the

test statistic is -0.74.
3. The p-value is given by p = 0.2298661085, hence
the p-value is 0.2299.
4. Recall the null hypothesis always contains equality
about the original claim. Since our original claim
is prop0.09, then h0 : p = 0.09. Since the pvalue is
greather than the significance level (0.01) then we
fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Solution: The type I error is to reject a true null hy5. Since our original claim does not incldue equalpothesis, so for this case a Type I error is to Reject the
ity,and we fail to reject the null, then our final
claim that the proportion of settled malpractice suites is
conclusion is: There is not sufficient evidence to
0.126 when the proportion is actually 0.16.
support the claim that less than 9% of treated subThe type II error is when we fail to reject a null hypothjects experienced headaches.
esis that is false, so in this case, We fail to reject the
claim that the proportion of settled malpractice suits is
0.16 when the proportion is actually different from 0.16. Problem 04: Trials in an experiment with a polygraph
include 97 results 24 cases of wrong results and 73 cases
Problem 03: A certain drug is used to treat asthma. of correct results. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the
In a clinical trial of the drug, 23 of 296 treated subject claim that such polygraph results are correct less than
experienced headaches. The accompanying calcualtion 80% of the time. Identify the null hypothesis, alternative
display shows the results from a test of the claim that hypothesis, , test statistic, P-value, conclusion, and final
less than 9% of treated subjects experienced headaches. conclusion that addresses the original claim. Use the
Use the normal distribution as an approximation to the p-value method.
binomial distribtuion and assume a 0.01 significance level
Solution: Our original claim is p < 0.80. Since
to answer the following
our null hypothesis always contains equality, then
H0 : p = 0.80. Our alternative follows the claim, so
1 -Proportion Z test
HA : p > 0.80.
Prop <0.09
z = 0.739287864
Now to find the test statistic we need to go to
p = 0.2298661085
Statcrunch Proportion Stats One Sample
p = 0.0777027027
with
Summary.
n = 296

1. Is the test a two tail, left tail, or right tail test?

2. What is the test statistic (round to two decimal
places)?
3. What is the p-value (round to four decimal places)?

Entering this information will give us the following

table when we press compute.

The test statistic can be entered directly from the

table, but make sure you round to the proper number
of decimal places z = 1.17, and the p-value is 0.1215
Lastly, we need to make a conlcusionn about the null
hypothesis: Since the p-value is less than the signficance
level, then we fail to reject the null hypothesis. Since our
original claim does not contain equality, and we fail to
reject H0 :, it follows there is not sufficient evidence to
support the claim that the polygraph results are correcct
less than 80% of the time.